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Speaker 1: What two three breaks.

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Speaker 2: Down in the middle of the fays.

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Speaker 3: Hello Chuck Paul, Who's got it down in the one

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Speaker 3: yard line?

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Speaker 2: How about that?

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Speaker 4: That is the ultimate kabash.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 4: We are underway.

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network NFL podcast. It is Week seventeen. I'm Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 1: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and I hope

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Speaker 1: that all of you had a wonderful holiday season. This

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Speaker 1: week we were doing something of a combo show. Normally

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Speaker 1: I do the Wednesday episode with Peter Jennings and Shawn

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Speaker 1: Corner and the Friday show with Chris Raybond. This week

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Speaker 1: we are consolidating the Wednesday in the Friday episodes. We're

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Speaker 1: recording on Thursday. In fact, this episode might even be

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Speaker 1: released on Thursday, and so Peter, Shawn, and Chris are

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Speaker 1: all on the pod. You can follow them in the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app at CSU r M eighty eight, the

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Speaker 1: Underscore Odds Maker, and Chris Raybond. Peter is a Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Laps co founder and two time DFS World Champion. Shawn

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Speaker 1: is the Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics and the

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Speaker 1: number one in season Fantasy Pros ranker for each of

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Speaker 1: the past three seasons. And Chris is a senior editor

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Speaker 1: an analyst of the Action Networking a co host of

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Speaker 1: All Take That Bets on ESPN plus guys, Pete, good

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Speaker 1: time with the family for the holidays.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I love Christmas a lot more than Thanksgiving. Watching

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Speaker 2: basketball is more fun and I make my family watch

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Speaker 2: a little bit of it. So that was great. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: it was really nice. Week sixteen finished really strong, so

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Speaker 2: happy about that. And yeah, Week seventeen is definitely one

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Speaker 2: of the best DFST slates of the year. And excited

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Speaker 2: to dig in with you guys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and on the topic of Christmas basketball, shout out

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network and Fantasy Laps guys who have

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Speaker 1: done great work this NBA season. I know almost nothing

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Speaker 1: about the NBA, but had a very nice and profitable

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Speaker 1: Christmas Day thanks to all the work that they do. Sean,

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Speaker 1: good holidays.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Yeah, it was nice getting a little break, and

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Speaker 4: I'm happy to announce I locked up our Action Network

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Speaker 4: Fantasy Football League, so that that was fun too. But

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Speaker 4: ready to get into you know, Week seventeen DFS. Like

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Speaker 4: you mentioned, this is my favorite week by far with

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Speaker 4: all the turnover and then getting ready for the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Ray Bond holiday party you attended at the Action Network

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Speaker 1: headquarters in New York. Give us the details. How was it, Oh, I.

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Speaker 3: Mean it was it was pretty dope.

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Speaker 5: I think the first highlight was that we had a

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Speaker 5: pinata and a couple of people took some swings with

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Speaker 5: no luck. And then our guy Jeff Schwartz, you know,

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Speaker 5: he gets up there just real easy swing and candy

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Speaker 5: just goes everywhere.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it was amazing.

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Speaker 5: There's also a pepper eating contest that I would like

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Speaker 5: to forget. I one said pepper eating contest, but my

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Speaker 5: tongue was numb for about the next hour, so that

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Speaker 5: was not That was not fun, but.

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Speaker 3: Overall great, great holiday party.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would expect former professional athlete Jeff Schwartz to

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Speaker 1: be able to crush opiniata, and then I would say,

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Speaker 1: you were not, in fact the winner of the pepper

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Speaker 1: eating contest, if you understand what I'm saying.

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Speaker 3: Not at all, not at all.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't.

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Speaker 5: I wasn't even the favorite, though I was actually the

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Speaker 5: There was three people and I was I was the

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Speaker 5: biggest underdog.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I hope somebody made some made some money off.

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Speaker 1: Of course people were wagering money on this. For the show,

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Speaker 1: we're going to look at the guys who right now

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Speaker 1: are popping in our pro models, and as Pete and

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Speaker 1: Sewn mentioned, this is a week in which a lot

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Speaker 1: is in flux, So definitely be sure to consult our

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Speaker 1: models throughout the week because I'm sure our projections will

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Speaker 1: be changing as news breaks and we get more updates

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Speaker 1: on what teams plan to do with their starters, as

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Speaker 1: some teams will be resting players in each team this

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Speaker 1: week has different motivation, so just be sure to follow

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Speaker 1: the news and continue to look at our models. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: right now, we're going to look at the guys who

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Speaker 1: are standing out in our pro mom We're going to

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Speaker 1: think about some players we might fade, some games or

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Speaker 1: teams who might want to stack, and then each of

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Speaker 1: us is going to give our favorite bet of the week,

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Speaker 1: and of course we're going to make some prop bets.

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Speaker 1: While you're listening to the show, please a rate and

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Speaker 1: review the Action Network NFL podcast on iTunes. Subscribe unsubscribed, resubscribe,

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Speaker 1: and for all of our written content, go to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network and Fantasy Labs. You can get our weekly

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Speaker 1: Fantasy rankings at actionnetwork dot Com slash Fantasy. It's week seventeen,

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Speaker 1: but we are still doing rankings. That is how committed

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Speaker 1: we are to this game of fantasy. Guys. Let's start

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Speaker 1: with the quarterbacks right now, at least kind of on

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Speaker 1: the expensive side of everything. The two quarterbacks dading out

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Speaker 1: are Patrick Mahomes at home against the Oakland Raiders, Roethlisberger

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Speaker 1: at home against Cincinnati, and then in the mid range

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Speaker 1: we have Russell Wilson, Jamis Winston, and Tom Brady Chris.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to start with you. Out of any of

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Speaker 1: those quarterbacks, is there someone who catches your eye or

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Speaker 1: are you looking somewhere else.

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Speaker 5: I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes in this spot against the Raiders.

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Speaker 5: They rank thirty first in DV away against the pass,

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Speaker 5: and if you look at Mahomes, he blows every other

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Speaker 5: quarterback out of the water in projected plus minus, which

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Speaker 5: is a highly predictive metric that we use here that

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Speaker 5: got even more ridiculously predictive when Sean.

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Speaker 3: Corner came on board. I wonder why.

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Speaker 5: Mahomes is in a spot here where if you look,

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Speaker 5: compare him to Roethlisberger. The over under in that game

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Speaker 5: is plummeting in the Cincinnati Pittsburgh game. Cincinnati not as

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Speaker 5: formidable an opponent on offense because they're with drafts DRISCOO.

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Speaker 5: They look like they're going to be without Tyler Boyd.

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Speaker 5: Their offense is just decimated. I love Mahomes and just

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Speaker 5: going with the guy who's thrown forty eight touchdowns already

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Speaker 5: this season. He also has seventy seven percent of the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs touchdowns have been passing the season, compared to sixty

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Speaker 5: eight percent for the Steelers. So I think you also

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Speaker 5: have kind of a little bit of an edge there,

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Speaker 5: just in terms of, you know, Kansas City's probably gonna

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Speaker 5: put up some points, Pittsbor're probably gonna put up some points,

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Speaker 5: but Mahomes more.

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Speaker 3: Likely to have a bigger chunk of that.

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Speaker 1: Scare Sean. You mentioned earlier that this is your favorite

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Speaker 1: week of the regular season. It's kind of like the

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Speaker 1: regular season version of the preseason, and I believe you

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Speaker 1: like the preseason quite a bit. How are you approaching

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Speaker 1: these different quarterbacks, especially given the different motivations that they have.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's the key for Week seventeen is motivation,

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Speaker 4: you know, to piggyback what Raybound said, I love Mahomes

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Speaker 4: this week. I view it more as a high floor play.

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Speaker 4: I'm a little bit worried about his ceilings just because

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Speaker 4: they won't need to throw too much to put away

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Speaker 4: the Raiders. And you know, I love bringing it up.

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Speaker 4: But the Raiders have only allowed one three hundred passing

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Speaker 4: yard game all year, so I think Mahomes is a

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Speaker 4: lock for a couple of touchdowns. He needs two to

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Speaker 4: hit fifty, So I think you got to watch out

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Speaker 4: for milestones too. I think teams definitely like I'm getting

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Speaker 4: players to certain milestones, So I think Mahomes is a

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Speaker 4: lock for a couple of touchdowns. And he's he's a

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Speaker 4: great cast game play this week because we'll get to

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Speaker 4: it later. But running back has so much value that

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Speaker 4: it's pretty easy to spend up at all the other

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Speaker 4: positions just because of all the value at running backs.

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Speaker 4: So I'm liking Mahomes and Big Bennett QB, and then

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Speaker 4: a little bit further down, I do like Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 4: at fifty six hundred. You know, he's really high floor

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Speaker 4: player with the massive ceiling like we've seen, so Markson

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Speaker 4: sticks out for me in the mid tier heat.

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Speaker 1: What about you who is catching your eye.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's all about Mahomes as well, And I

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Speaker 2: actually have less concerns than the rest of the guys

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Speaker 2: in terms of the potential for a ceiling game here.

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Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey needs to hold off George Kittle to break

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Speaker 2: Rob Grendkowski's record. Mahomes is also the leader right now

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Speaker 2: in the MVP race. There's a good article on the

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Speaker 2: Action Network about that, and I think the Chiefs really

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Speaker 2: want to make sure that they get him the MVP

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Speaker 2: and that they win this game in a big way.

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Speaker 2: They'll get a buy and they win this game, and

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Speaker 2: I think Mahomes will stay out there and they'll put

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Speaker 2: the pedal to the medal. One other thing that's really

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Speaker 2: helpful for Mahomes in this matchup is pretty big splits

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Speaker 2: in terms of how he performs under pressure and without pressure.

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Speaker 2: And he's just been unreal without pressure on him all year.

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Speaker 2: And the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL

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Speaker 2: and getting pressure on the quarterback, so everything lines up.

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Speaker 2: In general, I try not to take quarterbacks that are

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Speaker 2: going to just blow out other teams, but in the spot,

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Speaker 2: given that, I think they'll be trying to get an

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Speaker 2: additional status MVP. They get Kelsey stats for his milestone,

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Speaker 2: and it's a must win game to get that buy.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be all in. I mahomes in cash.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I'd like to return to you. You mentioned cheap

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Speaker 1: running backs, a lot of running back value on the slate.

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Speaker 1: It makes it easier to pay up at other positions.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Saquon Barkley is someone who is standing out

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Speaker 1: on the expensive side in our models. But if you

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Speaker 1: are looking to go cheap at the position, who are

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Speaker 1: the guys who are catching your eye right now?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so at the moment, guys like Jeff Wilson Matt

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Speaker 4: Bridas ruled out already this week, Jeff Wilson's a great

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Speaker 4: play at forty four hundred. You'll have Royce Freeman at

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Speaker 4: thirty five hundred, with Philip Lindsay out, and then sort

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Speaker 4: of in the mid tier, you have Jamal Williams at

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Speaker 4: six k, which I think is still a little too

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Speaker 4: cheap for him. And then we just have some guys

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Speaker 4: that we were not sure yet how the Saints or

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Speaker 4: Cowboys are going to handle their starters, So guys like

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Speaker 4: Dwayne Washington or Rod Smith could bump into play Christian

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Speaker 4: McCaffrey might get rested, so a guy like cameronar Is

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Speaker 4: Pain might get in play. So this is something we'll

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Speaker 4: have to monitor. But I think we're gonna have, you know,

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Speaker 4: three or four nearman price players that are all going

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Speaker 4: to be viable defuse options this week.

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Speaker 1: Chris, I'd like to get your thoughts on this. Normally

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Speaker 1: on the Friday Show, you look at the slate kind

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Speaker 1: of from a strategy focused perspective thinking about roster construction.

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Speaker 1: Do you think for this week roster construction, the way

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Speaker 1: to go is to load up on a lot of

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Speaker 1: the cheap running backs and pay up elsewhere or what

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Speaker 1: are you kind of looking to do?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I definitely want to use two cheap

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Speaker 5: running backs because I think Taquon I'm gonna be playing

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Speaker 5: him regardless because he doesn't need to rest. He's been

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Speaker 5: out there and he's just such a ridiculous volume hog

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Speaker 5: for the Giants that I think I do want to

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Speaker 5: get him in there just for that floor.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm looking for too.

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Speaker 5: Cheap two other cheap running backs, and then what that

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Speaker 5: allows you to do is it allows you to get

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Speaker 5: a guy like you know, Pete mentioned Travis Kelcey. I

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Speaker 5: think Travis Kelcey is in a smash spot against this

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Speaker 5: raider defense that tends to tends to do well against

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Speaker 5: top wide receivers, but really struggles against the time position.

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Speaker 5: So you know, these pass catchers, they're more volatile, they're

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Speaker 5: tougher to predict than running backs, and so anytime you

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Speaker 5: can go with value at running back to buy essentially

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Speaker 5: buy yourself some predictability at the pass catcher positions, that's

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Speaker 5: usually what you're going to want to do, especially in

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Speaker 5: the slate where it's not like, especially if McAffrey rest,

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Speaker 5: there's not going to be like a multiple stud running

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Speaker 5: backs that are in smash spots that you just want

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Speaker 5: to jam in. So definitely love the cheap running backs

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Speaker 5: expensive pass cats this week.

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Speaker 1: Pete, who are the running backs to catch your eye?

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Speaker 2: I think running backs actually the toughest position on the week,

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Speaker 2: depending on what happened, and there's a lot of things

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Speaker 2: that we're going to wait for Greshawan and Jeff Wilson.

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Speaker 2: You know, cheap guys like Peyton Barber are also interesting.

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Speaker 2: Potentially Royce Freeman, his past catching role or lack thereof,

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Speaker 2: is a concern for me at the high end. I'm struggling.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I do like Barkley. We'll see how

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Speaker 2: they handle him. He's also fighting for Rookie of the

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Speaker 2: Year against Baker Mayfield, and the Giants obviously want to

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Speaker 2: justify they're picking him, so that's another factor. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: no one really like totally stands out. I think one

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Speaker 2: guy who would become massive chalk would be C. J.

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Speaker 2: Anderson if Todd Gurley gets ruled out. I'd be surprised

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Speaker 2: if that happen, given out close it seemed he was

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Speaker 2: last week. The fact that the Rams need to win

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Speaker 2: this game. But yeah, it's a wait and see kind

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Speaker 2: of approach for me. At the position, there's guys in

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Speaker 2: smash spots that you're worried about, like Chris Carson, for example,

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Speaker 2: I think could have a huge game if he was

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Speaker 2: given his normal opportunity. But Seattle really doesn't have incentive here.

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Speaker 2: They're going to be the fifth or the sixth seed,

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Speaker 2: which means they're going on the road for a playoff

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Speaker 2: game either way. Jamal Williams, I guess makes a lot

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Speaker 2: of sense, but who knows what we se from Green Bay.

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Speaker 2: So running back is the one position where I don't

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Speaker 2: have as much conviction at this point. Hopefully there's some

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Speaker 2: definitive news on Friday or Saturday that makes it easier

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Speaker 2: to pick this position.

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Speaker 1: This is a random question. It's not as if this

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Speaker 1: is anything close to what we see in the NBA,

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Speaker 1: where players can be scratched an hour before game time.

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Speaker 1: But there is much more uncertainty this week, and I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering like how it is or when you guys really

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Speaker 1: start to build lineups, given that we just we have

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Speaker 1: incomplete information, do you kind of go through just different

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Speaker 1: scenarios of thinking, like, Okay, if Todd Gurley is out,

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Speaker 1: this is what my lineup is likely to look like.

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Speaker 1: If I'm starting CJ. Anderson, do you kind of start

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Speaker 1: to like how early in the week do you start

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Speaker 1: to go through kind of like contingent lineups or do

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Speaker 1: you even go through that process? I guess like the

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Speaker 1: big question is what is your Week seventeen process, Sean.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to start with you first with that question.

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Speaker 4: For the early games, I always wait till all the

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Speaker 4: nactives come out and then I update productions asap after that.

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Speaker 4: But this week we do have I think it's like

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Speaker 4: seven eight games one pm Pacific time and beyond. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's going to require more advanced planning potential scenarios where

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Speaker 4: even teams that play later, they might have their seating

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Speaker 4: locked in. So you have to kind of be aware

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Speaker 4: of situations like that, Like I don't know if the

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Speaker 4: Chargers can get locked in or something, but I'm a

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Speaker 4: scenario like that. You got to plan advance and you know,

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Speaker 4: utilize late swap for But I don't really plan anything

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Speaker 4: until all the enactives are out for week seventeen because

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Speaker 4: you never know, you know, even a guy like Julio Jones,

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Speaker 4: they might just go like, you know what, we're we're

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Speaker 4: letting mrs getting him ready for next year or something.

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Speaker 4: So's it's way too soon to be locking in lineups

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Speaker 4: this early in the week.

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Speaker 5: I usually make them pretty early in the week, well

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Speaker 5: early relative like Wednesday Thursday.

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Speaker 3: You know I am.

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Speaker 5: I do write the breakdowns, which usually come out Friday Saturday,

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Speaker 5: so I like to have a good handle on, you know,

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Speaker 5: what I'm doing by that time, and a lot of

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Speaker 5: it just comes down to roster builds. So for example,

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Speaker 5: this week, you know, I think I'm still going with

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Speaker 5: with Saquon Barkley, No matter what I'm his stealing rejection

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Speaker 5: is five points higher than any other flex eligible player

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Speaker 5: on the slate and our models on Draftking, So I

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Speaker 5: kind of know that I'll have Saquon in and you know,

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Speaker 5: there'll be a couple other guys, probably somebody like Travis

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Speaker 5: Kelce who I'll kind of lock in, and then from

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Speaker 5: there I'll know my route, my build. I'll save those lineups.

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Speaker 5: I'll save different iterations.

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Speaker 3: Of those lineups to you know, in our models, and

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Speaker 3: then as.

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Speaker 5: The week progresses and we get news, I'll kind of just,

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Speaker 5: you know, do what you said Freeman, which is prepare

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Speaker 5: for different scenarios. So I'll just go and save a

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Speaker 5: bunch of different lineups so that when Sunday in actives hit,

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Speaker 5: I can kind of quickly import the lineups that I

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Speaker 5: like or kind of build off those without kind of

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Speaker 5: having to start from scratch, because we really don't have

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Speaker 5: that much time, you know, between when an actives come

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Speaker 5: out and when lineups are going to lie.

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Speaker 1: All right, any any final thoughts here on Week seventeen

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Speaker 1: kind of when it is that you start to do

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Speaker 1: your things.

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Speaker 2: I'll spend most of the time on Saturday making my

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Speaker 2: main teams and then be able to update them on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: We'll see what happens on Friday with some of the

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Speaker 2: and hopefully we'll have a lot more information. We learn

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Speaker 2: a lot in general throughout the year on the Friday

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Speaker 2: practice reports, but Week seventeen still is a different animal.

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Speaker 2: And then tournaments. I mean, you really have to be

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Speaker 2: pivoting around and aware of the news. This week in particular,

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Speaker 2: I think it's really critical to understand how the slate

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Speaker 2: breaks down. Sean hit on it a little bit, but

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Speaker 2: we have the slate really split between one pm Eastern

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Speaker 2: and four twenty five Eastern, and almost all of the

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Speaker 2: playoff implications are with teams at four to twenty five Eastern.

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Speaker 3: So you should know that, or you should be really thinking.

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Speaker 2: About how you're going to late swap as well as

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Speaker 2: how you might react to certain news if it comes

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Speaker 2: out before those four twenty five games. We'll get to

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Speaker 2: it on some of these plays. But like the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: for example, they have incentive to win. They're starting late,

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Speaker 2: but at halftime, for instance, if they see the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are up thirty five nothing, they might scale back some

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Speaker 2: of their players. So the four to twenty five games

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Speaker 2: a lot of these teams that have a little bit

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Speaker 2: of motivation or you know, a lot, They have real

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Speaker 2: incentive to win, but they're worried about the other matchups.

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Speaker 2: That's where you have to just be a little aware

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Speaker 2: of potentially some of the guys getting rested maybe in

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Speaker 2: the second half.

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Speaker 1: All right, good stuff. There the wide receivers who are

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Speaker 1: standing out, the expensive guys, three of them right now,

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Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill, Chris any of

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Speaker 1: those guys kind of catching your eye or are you

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Speaker 1: looking elsewhere?

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Speaker 5: You know, as long as DeVante Adams plays and Aaron

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Speaker 5: Rodgers plays, still, I'm still going with Adams. I mean,

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Speaker 5: this guy's been money in the bank all season long.

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Speaker 5: He's he's been just you know, touchdown or ridiculous amounts

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Speaker 5: of receptions in yards every single week. So give me

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Speaker 5: DeVante as long as as Aaron Rodgers plays. But you know,

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Speaker 5: if we get kind of question marks, then I think

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Speaker 5: I'm probably going.

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Speaker 3: To look to to.

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Speaker 5: To just pay down a tiny, tiny bit, you know,

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Speaker 5: maybe because ty again, the Raiders are for whatever reason

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Speaker 5: they've they've been they've done fairly well against number one

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Speaker 5: wide receivers. So I think I'd be kind of looking

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Speaker 5: a little bit to that next tier, you know, Julian Edelman,

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Speaker 5: guys in that range.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, on the expensive end, I'm looking at Hopkins and Adams.

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Speaker 4: Like I mentioned earlier. You know, it's running back so

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Speaker 4: many value plays. It's it's pretty easy to fit in

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Speaker 4: both guys. And then you know in the mid tier range,

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Speaker 4: guys like Robert Woods, Kenny Galladay, Robbie Anderson. All makes

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Speaker 4: sense to round out your receiving core. But also on

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Speaker 4: the on the cheap end, there's some decent plays this week.

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Speaker 4: I like Ted gen might surprise, he returned from the

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Speaker 4: i R last week, so I'm in a monitor of that.

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Speaker 4: But this night the Saints Knight play him quite a

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Speaker 4: bit to just get his conditioning in for the playoffs,

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Speaker 4: So you know, near min price, he could be a

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Speaker 4: good GVP play. But you know, other than that for

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Speaker 4: wide receiver, for me, it's mostly going to be the

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Speaker 4: expensive guys. I'm just jamming in because all the value

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Speaker 4: that running back clears up for me.

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Speaker 1: Pete, what about you, Yeah, I'm definitely spending up.

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Speaker 2: Davante Adams says one of the best narratives the entire

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Speaker 2: slate needs two catches to break the reception record for

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Speaker 2: the Packers, needs one hundred and thirty three yards to

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Speaker 2: tie the Jordy Nelson receiving yard record, one hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty four to break it. Eighteen targets last week. Aaron

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Speaker 2: Rodgers is going to get him the ball. He's hyper

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Speaker 2: aware of those records, and I think he's gotten one

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Speaker 2: of the highest floors and ceilings on the slate. I

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Speaker 2: love DeAndre Hopkins as well. That's a tricky matchup to

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Speaker 2: kind of go into. Obviously, Jacksonville showed one of the

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Speaker 2: best defenses last year. Haven't been the same this year

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Speaker 2: and they have no motivation. But maybe they get up

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Speaker 2: with this game. So that's something to monitor. You guys

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Speaker 2: said it on a lot of them that I think

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Speaker 2: are really good plays by. My favorite cheap receiver is

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Speaker 2: Chris Godwin. If Deshaun Jackson does indeed not play, Godwin's

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Speaker 2: been just a total stud with Deshaun Jackson out has

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Speaker 2: had one or two duds, but the volume's always been

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Speaker 2: there and he's a really talented player. The Pittsburgh receivers

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Speaker 2: are obviously really nice as well, but I feel really

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Speaker 2: comfortable at the receiver position relative to running back.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and one quick thing on Adams, he's got an

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Speaker 1: outside shot at becoming just the fourth wide receiver in

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Speaker 1: NFL history to have fifteen hundred yards and fifteen touchdowns

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Speaker 1: in the same season. I think the only other guys

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Speaker 1: are Jerry Rice and Theny Moss, Yeah, Randy Moss, and

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Speaker 1: then Calvin Johnson I think is the third one. So

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Speaker 1: pretty elite club if you can get there at tight end.

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Speaker 1: There's really only one guy who's standing out in our models,

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Speaker 1: and we mentioned him earlier, Travis Kelce. Just this smash

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Speaker 1: matchup against the Raiders, who had passed dvoa against tight

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Speaker 1: ends or dead last in the league. Obviously, he's someone

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Speaker 1: that we might be looking to put into the lineups

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Speaker 1: if you want to pay up at the position. But

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Speaker 1: just curious if any other guys are catching your eye, Chris, I.

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Speaker 5: Think both tight ends in the Rams and forty nine

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Speaker 5: ers games have to catch your eye. I mean George Kittle,

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Speaker 5: you know his targets here has been up around thirty

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Speaker 5: percent over these last few weeks because and now you're

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Speaker 5: looking at Dante Pettis being out as well. You know,

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Speaker 5: what is what is San Francisco really going to do

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Speaker 5: but feed George Kittle to the ball, and you also

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Speaker 5: have Gerald Everett and Gerald Everett for the Rams has

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Speaker 5: kind of come on a little bit of late. He's

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Speaker 5: kind of had a little bit of a bump in

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Speaker 5: target share with you know, ever since Cooper Cup has

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Speaker 5: gone down. He's got seven, seven and six targets in

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Speaker 5: his last three games, with four five and five catches.

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Speaker 5: And you know, anytime you're getting the ball in that

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Speaker 5: kind of offense, I think you have a really good

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Speaker 5: chance that you know, probably I would say sneaky multi

436
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,400
Speaker 5: touchdown upside. He's gotten a red zone target in two

437
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 5: of the last three games. So love Everett, love Kittle

438
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 5: if you're pivoting off Kelsey, and those are the top

439
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 5: the number two and number three tight ends in our

440
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 5: Fantasy Labs models on DraftKings. By the way, so Kelsey's

441
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 5: number one, but those those two are two and three.

442
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, same here. Obviously I agree with the models. I

443
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 4: will mention, you know, Everett, they're getting involved in those

444
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 4: jet sweet plays. So he had two direct carriages last week.

445
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,479
Speaker 4: He's had six or more targets three game in a row.

446
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think we're in the middle of the

447
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 4: break the Gerald Evert breakout we've kind of been waiting for,

448
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 4: and he's only twenty eight hundred, so he's He's a

449
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 4: good pivot play. If you know, most of my lamps

450
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 4: are going to have either Kelsey and some of them Kittle,

451
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 4: but Everett makes a good you know, contrarium play position.

452
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that call on Everett. I think he

453
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 2: makes sense if you're gonna pay down. I think Kelsey's

454
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: the uber chalk and rightfully so. George Kittle is another

455
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: great play that RAYBN obviously got into and I love

456
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 2: that Kyle Shanahan. There's audio of him talking about how

457
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,479
Speaker 2: I needed to get him another catch when he had

458
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,200
Speaker 2: that ridiculous game. They're certainly aware of all the records,

459
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,239
Speaker 2: and Kittle has just been ridiculous all year. I had

460
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,439
Speaker 2: to shout out zach Ertz. Big ups to him and

461
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 2: the best ball tournaments. I really targeted the premium tight ends.

462
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 2: My biggest position on the year by far was zach Ertz,

463
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 2: and zach Ertz was on both the winning teams for

464
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 2: me this year. So still love zach Ertz and he

465
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: might be a good contrarion option relative to Kittle and Kelsey.

466
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 2: I think are going to soak up a lot more ownership.

467
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 2: The Eagles still have incentive here. They can somehow ge

468
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 2: to win in the Vikings lose to Chicago, and you

469
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 2: know the Eagles are in. So I think Ertz is

470
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 2: a really nice play, and Washington's just given up on

471
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: the defensive side. So all three elite tight ends are great.

472
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 2: And then think Everett and Herndon are product favorite punt

473
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 2: tight ends.

474
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 1: All right, let's look at some players who might be

475
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 1: expensive or guys who might think who are popular that

476
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 1: we would be fine with fading this week. And potentially

477
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: this could be guys that might be looking to rest

478
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 1: for playoff runs or just might not play because their

479
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 1: teams are just out of the playoffs. Things like that,

480
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: Chris An you want catching your eye.

481
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's quite a few, because I mean, if you

482
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 5: look at the top of the price and you're gonna

483
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,719
Speaker 5: see guys like Zeke Elliott, you know, I think anyone

484
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 5: on the Saints, you know, any of those studs, the

485
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 5: Saints studs.

486
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara is another one.

487
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,719
Speaker 5: Those guys are guys who probably not going to have

488
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 5: a ton of ownership, if any I understand kind of

489
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 5: the contrarian viewpoint of it with Hey, you know, these

490
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 5: guys are talented if they play, but I just think

491
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 5: there's on a slate where there's literally thirty of the

492
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 5: thirty two teams in play, you don't necessary we want

493
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 5: to be, you know, messing around with contrarian guys at

494
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 5: that high of a price tag instead of just trying

495
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 5: to maximize your your value because there's so many other

496
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 5: ways you could go about.

497
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 3: That and still be still get low ownership.

498
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 5: So I'll be fading all those those studs on the

499
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 5: team on the all the studs that may not play

500
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 5: the entire game.

501
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's ironic. It is the largest main slate of

502
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: the season with fifteen games, but the player pool is

503
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 1: probably smaller than it is in a lot of weeks. Sean,

504
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: who are you looking to stay away from?

505
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's my theme this week too, is look out

506
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 4: for motivation, So fading guys like Zeke Kamara, Michael Thomas,

507
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 4: Mark Cooper. You know, I mentioned it earlier. The Cowboys

508
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 4: and Saints don't really have anything to play for and

509
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 4: they're going to the playoffs, so that's a bad commo

510
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 4: to have. And then I'm pivoting the guys that are

511
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 4: motivated guys like DeAndre Hopkins that need to win. Saquon

512
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 4: Barkley have some you know, specific incentives like Rookie of

513
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 4: the Year. But you know, it's it's one of those

514
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 4: things where we saw a few years ago. I believe

515
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 4: it was the Redskins are the only team really had

516
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: nothing to play for, and they were only going to

517
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 4: play Cousins for one half and he ended up throwing

518
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 4: for free touchdowns in the first half. So when those

519
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 4: things happen, I think you just have to deal with it.

520
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 4: I'm not here to try to predict those things, so

521
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 4: I'm not too worried about Chuck and whatnot. I'm just

522
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 4: I'm playing the straight up and like I said, just

523
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 4: you know, avoid the guys have nothing to play for

524
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 4: and target the guys that do have motivation this week.

525
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 1: All right, Pete, what about you?

526
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, first time all year, I felt great about this segment.

527
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 2: It's easy to go through the top guys that you

528
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: want to fade.

529
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 4: They might not play the whole game.

530
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 2: I mean Christ McCaffrey, certainly, Ezekiel Elliott. I didn't throw

531
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,959
Speaker 2: Melvin Gordon as a player that I probably will fade.

532
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 2: That's one of the spots in particular that yes, the

533
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 2: Chargers if they win and the Chiefs lose, they get

534
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: a bye. However, Chiefs being at home and just massive

535
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 2: favors versus Oakland Eckler's back. You know, they saw Justin

536
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 2: Jackson play really well, and I expect the Chargers to

537
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 2: be scoreboard watching at halftime, given that all those games

538
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: start at the same time, and if they see that,

539
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 2: you know, four or five touchdowns or even less than that,

540
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 2: you know, I could see them just kind of easing

541
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 2: Gordon's role in the second half of that game. So

542
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 2: there's a ton of guys. Alvin Kamara is another one.

543
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: Chris Carson who I mentioned before. He's in the mid range.

544
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 2: I think he's got a great matchup, but we'll see

545
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: hard to trust Seattle going out there and just giving

546
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: him thirty touches when they really have no incentive in

547
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 2: the game. So there's a ton of guys like that.

548
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: And we've talked about the players we like. It's easy

549
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 2: to pivot over to the players who have big incentive

550
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: to win, and we kind of know what the teams

551
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 2: are going to do.

552
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 1: Okay, let's think about some of the teams or games

553
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: we might be looking to stack. If you look at

554
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: the live odds page at the Action Network, you see

555
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 1: that the games the three games with the highest over

556
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: unders right now Raiders at Chiefs fifty two point five,

557
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: Falcons at Bucks fifty and a half, and then forty

558
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: nine Ers at Rams forty nine points. And there's a

559
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: pretty precipitous drop after those three games. And I believe

560
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 1: we have mentioned players in all of those games, so

561
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: this would obviously be once we might be looking the stacked.

562
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: Are there other games, uh that might be a little

563
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 1: less obvious, uh, that you still think have some shootout potential?

564
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 2: Chris?

565
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 5: For first of all, I'll say that that that Bucks

566
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 5: Falcons game is a game that I really like. Of

567
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 5: those three that you mentioned, I think that's the game

568
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 5: where the defenses are just so bad that even if

569
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 5: you know the star players don't play, there's still enough

570
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 5: talent with the secondary guys at uh, you know, that

571
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 5: game could go you know, well well over the total.

572
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 5: But outside of that, I think that the Green Bay

573
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 5: and Detroit game, if Aaron Rodgers plays, is a game

574
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 5: that you can see a little more you know, scoring

575
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 5: then the over under might suggest Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers.

576
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 5: You have two quarterbacks that you know, if one of

577
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 5: Kenny Gaudy plays, I think the Detroit offense, I mean,

578
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 5: looking at what Sam Donold and the Jets.

579
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 3: Were able to do against the Green Bay defense last week.

580
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 5: Not not too worried about Stafford in this particular spot,

581
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 5: even though I have been off of him for most

582
00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 5: of the year.

583
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 3: And then you know, Pete hit on it.

584
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 5: You know, Devant Adams still has records to get. Aaron

585
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 5: Rodgers wants to be out there. You know, I'm sure

586
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 5: Jude Grant would like to end the season on a high.

587
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 5: Not so, just a bunch of things where I think

588
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 5: that the offenses in this game we're going to have

589
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 5: be able to have some success, and more success than

590
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 5: than we think given given the spread.

591
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 3: That's probably a.

592
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 5: Little bit conservative, just based on the possibility of not

593
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 5: everyone giving it one hundred percent.

594
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 4: You know, I was hoping I'd be able to stack

595
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 4: this Falcons Buccaneers game, but it sounds like they want

596
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 4: to get Ryan Griffins and snaps at QB. So you know,

597
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: I'm a little bit soured on Jamis Winston unfortunately. So

598
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 4: I've been looking at this forty nine ers Rams game

599
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 4: as the top game to stack. You know, there's a

600
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 4: ton of potential on both sides. We didn't even talk

601
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 4: abouthim earlier, but Kendrick Bourne is a great cheap you know,

602
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 4: wide receiver play this week, Dante Pettis is out, Marquis

603
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 4: Sun is pretty banged up, so he could get a

604
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 4: ton of targets George Kittle Jerrel Everett in that game.

605
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 4: So I just think that foreign a Ers Rams game

606
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 4: has a ton of potential, especially if they decided to

607
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 4: say early again and we have CJ. Anderson. So that's

608
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 4: the game I'm kind of keying in on right now.

609
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 1: All right, Pete, what about you?

610
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: Oh? I love the games tax in general, and it's

611
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 2: something that I think is really important in tournaments and

612
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 2: something I've tried to do, and definitely this offseason is

613
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 2: going to work really hard to identify how I can

614
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 2: get better at it because I do see that the

615
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,879
Speaker 2: top tournament players are leveraging it in some capacity. It

616
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 2: makes sense when you know the top stacks go off,

617
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 2: they oftentimes need a lot of points from the opposing

618
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 2: team to do well. However, this week there's not that

619
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: many great games for big stacks, and a lot of

620
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 2: the players I love are in spots where I just

621
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: think that they're going to go off. I mean, we

622
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 2: hit on it with the Chiefs. I don't really have

623
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 2: a lot of faith in the Raiders. The guys that

624
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: want to run back with are injured and beat up.

625
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 2: You have the Patriots and Jets game, which I guess

626
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 2: would be my favorite one, but the Jets are only

627
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: implied for fifteen and a half points, so it's tough.

628
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: I mean, like the Falcons Tampa Bay game. I love Godwin,

629
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: but there's rumors that, you know, the Tampa Bay wants

630
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: to see what they have in their third stringer, so

631
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: we might not even get a full game of Jamis Winston,

632
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 2: Julio Jones could sit. Who knows what the will do

633
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: with Tevin Coleman. So there's a lot of spots where

634
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: it's just very tricky to figure out what to do.

635
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: And this might be a week where I make less

636
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: correlated teams and just try to jam in the high

637
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 2: end equity guys and tournaments and hope that my opponent's

638
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 2: may mistakes with players who might not be playing full game.

639
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 5: I will say this about the Raiders Chiefs game, like

640
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 5: I actually do like a bunch of players on the

641
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 5: Raiders because they've, like, over these last weeks, they start

642
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 5: to feed Jordy Nopes. You know, it's really off brand

643
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 5: for me. But I mean I don't know.

644
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: If it's all slow white receiver.

645
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 5: Yes, yeah, I mean I've been faded him for the

646
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 5: whole year. But I mean ten catches on eleven targets

647
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 5: against the Chiefs in the first meeting. After that game,

648
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 5: he goes six catches on seven targets, six catches on

649
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 5: eight targets, seven catches on ten targets. I mean, this guy,

650
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 5: he hasn't had less than six catches in over a month.

651
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 5: I think that, you know, be at the stage that

652
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 5: he is in his career, with John Bruden and his

653
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 5: tanking team, I think they'll try to do him some

654
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 5: favors and continue to pat his numbers in case he

655
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 5: wants to you know, uh, you know, just have some

656
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 5: good numbers for you know, on his as he goes

657
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 5: out of here.

658
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 3: So I like, I like the Raider. I think car

659
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 3: is even a sneaky a sneaky play as well.

660
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 4: Exposure.

661
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 5: I mean, it is tough because it's just he's kind

662
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 5: of always giving me the same I'd actually almost rather

663
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 5: go with Doug Martin because they've been using him like

664
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 5: an RB one.

665
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 3: It just depends on the game script.

666
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 5: Now, this is a game where it obviously could get

667
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 5: out of hand, but he could get the goal on

668
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 5: carries to catch a pass or two.

669
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 3: I don't know. I like the Raiders offense to.

670
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 4: Jordan where you're kind of alluding you might you might

671
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 4: think he would retire after that.

672
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: I think he.

673
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 5: I think he might retire. I think he might retire,

674
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 5: to be honest, I mean it's he's just he's not

675
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 5: the same guy. So I don't know how long he

676
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 5: wants to keep doing this. It's like he played on

677
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 5: a terrible team. See, I don't know if he wants to,

678
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 5: you know, do that again, or if he's is he

679
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 5: a free agent or is it a one year deal

680
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 5: or a two year You remember, do.

681
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 4: You guys know? Because yeah, there's there's some guys that

682
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 4: you know, this be their final game, so teams might

683
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: you know, give him some extra targets. So yeah, that's

684
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 4: a good call.

685
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 1: I think he's on a two year deal, but I

686
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: don't think that would actually matter, and I might be

687
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: wrong on that. Is a two year deal.

688
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, it says he's actually playing today, so maybe not that,

689
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 5: but I mean he's just I mean, regardless of the motivation.

690
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 3: I mean, he's just stepped it up weight.

691
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 5: So I don't see why, you know, I mean, at

692
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 5: that that price, he's not like he's projected for a

693
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 5: high ownership. I think it's a it's a decent spot.

694
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 5: The Chiefs and Kelsey are putting up a bunch of points.

695
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 5: Somebody has to kind of touch the ball, and Marcelle

696
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 5: Ayton's really disappeared over these last couple of games.

697
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:41,719
Speaker 2: Uh.

698
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about our pick real quick.

699
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 2: I just look the Nelson thing a little bit, that

700
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: they can release him and not be on the hook

701
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 2: for some of his incentives for the second year. So

702
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: maybe it's just like it's a two year deal, but

703
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 2: it it might function more as.

704
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: A one Yeah, okay, let's get who are picks one

705
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: game and one pick for Fantasy. Uh rabon, I'm kicking

706
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: it to you, all right.

707
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 5: Let's start with Fantasy A guy, I really think it

708
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 5: is sneaky. Uh this week is Dante Moncreef going against

709
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 5: the Texans secondary. I mean, yeah, going against the Texans

710
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 5: secondary with Bortles starting back at quarterback. Moncreef's production really

711
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 5: fell off a cliff once Bortals was not the starter anymore.

712
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 5: So he averaged nearly four less PPR points per game

713
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 5: without Bortals. And so now you have Bortos back, you

714
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 5: have that Texans secondary that just lit up by Philadelphia

715
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 5: a week ago, and you have Monkeef, a guy that

716
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 5: you know, for most of the year had had a

717
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 5: commanding in air yards, red zone, all that good stuff.

718
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 5: Right now we haven't projected for zero to one percent ownership,

719
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 5: So really like, really like Moncrief in that in that game.

720
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 5: And then as far as a sneaky game, I am

721
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 5: going to go with the Dolphins.

722
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 3: In the Bills game.

723
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 5: Uh, that's a game that I think it's gonna be

724
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 5: pretty much ignored across the board, but I think there

725
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 5: are some interesting interesting options in that game. First, you

726
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 5: look at obviously Josh Allen and and and the Bills receivers,

727
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 5: you know, Jay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, and Robert Foster. You know,

728
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 5: those guys have been commanding a high percentage of the

729
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 5: target share of these last few games, ever since they

730
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 5: released Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes.

731
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: So you know, you have Foster's kind of getting you

732
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 3: those air yards.

733
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 5: You have McKenzie's eating up perceptions underneath and used a

734
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 5: little bit in a in a multi purpose role. And

735
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 5: Jay Jones is kind of the the the facto number

736
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 5: one at this point. And then on the Dolphins side,

737
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 5: I mean you have you have Kenny and Drake, who

738
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 5: you know, he was used a lot more last game

739
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 5: kind of went under the radar because Dolphins didn't have

740
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 5: a lot of play volume, but Kenny and Drake ended up,

741
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 5: you know, seeing a increase in snaps and and backfield

742
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 5: touches and whatnot. And you remember how Adam Gase, you know,

743
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 5: weaned on him to close out last season when when

744
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 5: he had a lot of injury. So I think you

745
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 5: can look at uh, you could look at Drake in

746
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 5: this game as well.

747
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: So I like, I like that game was a game

748
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 3: that that no one was gonna be on.

749
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 5: You might be able to kind of get a cheap,

750
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 5: cheap games back in there with the Bills or with

751
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 5: Drake and somebody else on the DOPH.

752
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 4: So for real life, I'm calling the Redskins upsetting the

753
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 4: Eagles this week. I think we'll see a lot of

754
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 4: the same approach this week where they just run it

755
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 4: with AP and Josh Johnson and just you know, really

756
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: run down the clock, shorten the game, keep it close,

757
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 4: and then you know, I think the Eagles playoff chances

758
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 4: will be shut down in Washington, DC this week. And

759
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 4: then for DFS, Mike Bold call it that too bold,

760
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 4: but Sakwon Barkley will be the top scoring running back

761
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 4: on the main slate. You know a lot of the

762
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 4: top price running backs have some issues, so he's only

763
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 4: when I'm to be targeting Dallas could rest starters on

764
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 4: the defensive side of the ball as well, and you know,

765
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 4: I think he has a big game and lock down

766
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 4: the offensive rookie of the year over Baker Mayfield.

767
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 1: Sean random question Redskins using Adrian Peterson a lot. This

768
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: is the guy who could be playing his last NFL game.

769
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: Of course, maybe not, like we've said that before, and

770
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: he somehow comes back and he you know, he is

771
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 1: someone who was productive this year. You know, granted it

772
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 1: was maybe you know, inconsistent and in particular spots, but

773
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: he was productive. Do you think if you had to

774
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: kind of handicap this, do you think he comes back

775
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: and plays next year, maybe not for the maybe not

776
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 1: for Washington, but for some team.

777
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe not for Washington. But yeah, I don't know.

778
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 4: If he has a big game, maybe he wants to

779
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 4: go out that way. But that's I haven't thought that yet.

780
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 4: That's an interesting thing to look into. I'm big on

781
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 4: final game narratives, you know, ever since the Kobe the

782
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 4: Final Game. Yeah, I loaded up on that. I had

783
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 4: a great night. So so yeah, we have some of

784
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 4: those to look out this week. And I don't think

785
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 4: it's too crazy to think this could be Adrian Peterson's

786
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,720
Speaker 4: last game. But I wouldn't know. I'd have to look into.

787
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 4: You know, is on contract and what you know, he

788
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 4: might be a kind of guy that would just be

789
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 4: a free agent next year and kind of sign up

790
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 4: a team that needs a running back or something. I

791
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 4: don't really know what he's thinking personally, but I don't

792
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 4: think it's too crazy to think he just goes off

793
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 4: thinking this might be his last game.

794
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,479
Speaker 2: I hate to spoil that narrative shown, but he did

795
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 2: say last week that he plans to play for four

796
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: more years.

797
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 4: Okay, that's.

798
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:23,720
Speaker 3: Saying he's going to play.

799
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 2: Four more years. He's already in the old running back.

800
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 2: I think that's really optimistic, but I do expect to

801
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 2: play next year, given he's been effective as a runner

802
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 2: this year and certainly looks spry as an athlete, even

803
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 2: at an advanced stage for that position. I'm going to

804
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: go with this Buffalo Miami game as well. I had

805
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 2: it written down. I think Josh Allen and Robert Foster

806
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 2: is an incredible stack, and I think Buffalo not only covers,

807
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: but wins by multiple touchdowns. There's talk of Ryan Tannehill

808
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: just being completely out. It's going to be a complete

809
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 2: reshaping of this Miami team. So the only downside from

810
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 2: a fancy perspective for Alan is that Miami is just

811
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: gonna run a lot. But I think Buffalo could play really,

812
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 2: really well here, and Alan has just been the perfect

813
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 2: kind of backyard football fantasy quarterback. So I'm going with

814
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: them crushing the Dolphins and Josh Allen getting a rushing

815
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: touchdown and a deep bomb to Foster who just missed

816
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: an eighty two yard touchdown. Lost the ball the sun

817
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 2: last week.

818
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: Kay, I'm going with the Raiders and the Chiefs under

819
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 1: it opened it fifty five and a half. I bet

820
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: it at fifty five. In the Andy Reid era since

821
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: twenty thirteen, no home team has been more profitable for

822
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: underbetters than the Chiefs. You know, air ahead is just

823
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: a tough place to play, especially in the winter. It's cold,

824
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 1: it's loud. Here's some information from the road of base

825
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 1: game splits app Chief home games this year, the over

826
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 1: under has been fifty two point eight. In the road games,

827
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 1: the over under has been fifty five point one. They've

828
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: scored just around fifty two points at home collectively, the

829
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: Chiefs and their opponents, but they've crushed the Overs.

830
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 2: On the road.

831
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 1: So it's the situation where the Chiefs on the road

832
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: have scored thirty eight point two points. At home they

833
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: scored thirty two. Their opponents have scored thirty four points

834
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: on the road, twenty points in Kansas City. So I

835
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: think it's just a situation where there's maybe more downside

836
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: in Kansas City than people realize. So like throughout the

837
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: Read era, the Chiefs have scored actually two point eight

838
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: one fewer points at home and opponents have scored six

839
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 1: fewer points in Kansas City. So just a tough place

840
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: to play. And then the divisional rematches late in the

841
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 1: season tend to go under, and the seventy three points

842
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: that the Chiefs and Raiders combine to score in Oakland

843
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 1: about a month ago, I think could result in an

844
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: inflated line.

845
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 5: You know, you know one player on the Raiders is

846
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 5: used to playing in the cold weather.

847
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 3: Though you already knowson.

848
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: Jordy Nelson, that is true, or as I like to

849
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: call him, the unofficial Antonio Brown.

850
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 4: But he'll be on the prop contest.

851
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: Which in which I have to say, which leads me

852
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 1: to this next point. For the rest of my life,

853
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to be consumed with this Antonio Brown thing.

854
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 1: Although I am going to come up with some sort

855
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: of bet for twenty nineteen for anyone who wants to

856
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: be on.

857
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 2: The other side of this.

858
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: But for Week seventeen, Antonio in a smash spot as

859
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: a home favorite going against the horrid Bengals. You know,

860
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: must win game, lock it up hundred yards, two touchdowns.

861
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 1: That's what I said last week. I'm going with it

862
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 1: again this week. I think he has a big game.

863
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,720
Speaker 1: So anyway, I bet the over on his props last week,

864
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 1: I'm doing it again this week, which brings us to

865
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,959
Speaker 1: the prop betting segment of the show odds maker set

866
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: lines for us. Side note, I don't believe we have

867
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 1: updated standings because of the holidays, but we will have

868
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: those next episode. A reminder, Shawn's projections power the Fantasy

869
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: Labs models as well as our props tools, which aggregate

870
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 1: the player props from online sportsbooks, compares them to Shawn's projections,

871
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: and then shows you which bets provide the most value.

872
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 1: This season, the prop tool has been killing it. The

873
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 1: props with the bet quality of ten have a win

874
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: rate of sixty six percent, So everyone be sure to

875
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 1: check out the props tool at Fantasy Labs. For subscribers, Sean,

876
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 1: you have some props for us, and I believe that

877
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: some of these are going to appear in a free

878
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 1: contest We're going to be running in the Action Network

879
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: app this weekend. What are the props you have for us?

880
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 4: Okay, so at QB, the first prop I have is

881
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,959
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes will he throw for three hundred or more

882
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 4: passing yards? And like I mentioned, the Raiders have only

883
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 4: allowed one guy to throw for over three hundred yards

884
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 4: this year, not because they're you know, necessarily good on pascity,

885
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 4: but teams usually are up and don't really have an

886
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 4: incentive to keep throwing. So I'm willing to throw this

887
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 4: softer line out for you guys this week.

888
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: I'm going over, yes, over com hundred guys. YEA.

889
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 3: My thing is you still have to look at I

890
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 3: think the offensive.

891
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 5: Player is going to be more predictive, a little bit

892
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 5: more predictabability and that than like just looking at the

893
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 5: matchup in Mahomes has one two three from US six

894
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 5: seventy three hundred yard games this season.

895
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 3: So I do get that. You know, Oakland troubles, you know,

896
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 3: to play football essentially, and teams haven't drawing them. But

897
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 3: I'll go with the offensive guy all day.

898
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,879
Speaker 1: Sean. I know you want us to take the under.

899
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 4: I'm trying to. Yeah, I'm trying to make a late

900
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 4: season push to go over fifty.

901
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I want to take the over just because

902
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 1: I know you want us to take the under.

903
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 4: Yeah.

904
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 1: No, I want you.

905
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 4: I want you guys to take the over, and then

906
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 4: I just root for the under.

907
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: No, that's not what was happening. You're like, oh, they've

908
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,280
Speaker 1: only thrown three hundred yards just once.

909
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 4: I'm just I'm just giving that the listeners. Yeah, so

910
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 4: they're not they're not confused when they only throw us

911
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 4: for two ninety this week. Okay, So next up, who

912
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 4: will have more DK points this week? Aaron Rodgers at

913
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 4: home against Lions or Matt Ryan at Tampa Bay.

914
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 3: I'm to go with Aaron Rodgers.

915
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going Aaron Rodgers Rogers for sure. Since uh,

916
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 1: since the firing of Mike McCarthy, the Tampa Bay defense

917
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:02,240
Speaker 1: has gotten just tougher in general, but then particularly better

918
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,319
Speaker 1: against the past. I mean they're still not good that

919
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: now they're just getting destroyed by running backs, but yeah,

920
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: they're just they're not quite as generous to quarterbacks as

921
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: they were earlier in the season.

922
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 4: All right, Next up, we were talking about final games

923
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 4: ever and this this could be a potential spot for

924
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 4: Eli Manning. I don't know if you guys have any

925
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 4: news on that. I know it's probably his final game

926
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 4: as a Giant. I'm not sure if you know he's

927
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 4: playing retiring after this, but over under passing yards at

928
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 4: home for Eli Manning two forty and a half, he

929
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 4: doesn't as a guy in his final game really going

930
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 4: off just kind of just you know, dumping it off

931
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: a bit and calling it today.

932
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: So I think He'll go over in part because I

933
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: do think Dallas, like I think they're really not even

934
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 1: focused on this game. I think they are going to

935
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 1: play a lot of second and third stringers. That's what

936
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: they've done in the past. And I actually don't think

937
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 1: this is going to be his his last game either

938
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 1: with the Giants, but that's its own kind of separate thing.

939
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll take the over. He's still has really

940
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 1: good pass catching weapons even if Odell Beckham doesn't play.

941
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't gone fightly over. I haven't met to

942
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 3: fifty three, so I'll go over.

943
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 4: The all three over. Yeah, okay. Next up at running

944
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 4: back we mentioned earlier with Philip Lindsay out this week,

945
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 4: Royce Freeman gets to be the man. So his total

946
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 4: rushing HOURDS versus the Chargers over under sixty three and

947
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:22,720
Speaker 4: a half.

948
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 1: I'll take the under.

949
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: Under.

950
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: I was hoping you would give a lower line so

951
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 1: I could take the under, but sorry, sorry to take

952
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 1: the over, but yeah, I'm going to take the under.

953
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: With that line, I'll go over here.

954
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 3: I like the over here.

955
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 5: I think that Friedman is going to get about seventy

956
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 5: percent of the carries. I think that'll be enough to

957
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 5: kind of protect them for for some success. And I

958
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 5: think the Chargers they're still weaker on run defense. I

959
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 5: think that's what you want to do to them. The Broncos,

960
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 5: really they're so decimated. I think they put the ball

961
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 5: and it's got a ton.

962
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 1: The one thing about Freeman that kind of frustrates me, Like,

963
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 1: I think he's a very talented guy and he was

964
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: actually an underrated pass catcher in college, but for whatever reason,

965
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: they've just been running him into eight man fronts a

966
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 1: lot of the season, and I don't know if there's

967
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 1: really going to be any difference in this game. And

968
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 1: that's just really kind of impacted his ability to be efficient.

969
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:14,439
Speaker 1: So even if we, I mean we expect him still

970
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: to see much more usage this game, I just don't

971
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 1: know if it's going to be quality usage.

972
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, now, you that's a good point.

973
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 1: I think.

974
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 5: You know, it's one of those situations where the usage

975
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 5: is just you're just kind of hoping that he gets

976
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:26,919
Speaker 5: to enough carrieres to where he just pops like one

977
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 5: thirty yard or something and that's enough.

978
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 3: And then that gets more likely as the as a

979
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 3: carrier is increased.

980
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 4: All right, So next up, this this is assuming that

981
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 4: Todd Gurley's out, so if he plays, will avoid this bet.

982
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 4: But CJ. Anderson total rushing yards at home against the

983
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 4: Niners over under sixty and a half over over.

984
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 5: Maybe, I mean they're gonna they're gonna treat him like

985
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 5: probably like a feature back. If if Todd Growley is out,

986
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 5: I think you'll see some John Kelly. But you know,

987
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 5: this is a is a pretty good, pretty decent run

988
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 5: blocking team. This is a you still have to worry

989
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 5: about their their past catching weapons. So I don't think

990
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 5: going to be too hard for for any guy that's getting,

991
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 5: you know, into that fifteen carry range to hit sixty

992
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 5: against on the Rams offense.

993
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 1: I mean, Sean, it's almost as if you don't know

994
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: that CJ. Anderson is one of the greatest junior college

995
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: running backs of all time. Gotta respect him.

996
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 4: Hey, I did. Last week. Everybody was trying to say, like, oh, no,

997
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 4: like John Kelly might be the guy, and I was like,

998
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 4: you know, you just have to listen to the coach

999
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,439
Speaker 4: when when he says that he's going to start a guy,

1000
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 4: you just kind of have to believe him to a

1001
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 4: certain point.

1002
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 2: So I like c J.

1003
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 4: Anderson last week. I like him this week, I think, Yeah,

1004
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 4: I think sixty and a half might be a little

1005
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 4: too low. So I'm a little bit nervous that you

1006
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 4: guys all got over that. But so next to the

1007
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 4: running back, I don't really like my next prop. So

1008
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 4: if you guys have one you want to throw up there,

1009
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 4: I'll just make on the spot.

1010
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:48,240
Speaker 5: Okay, more rushing yards mark Ingram plus ten Alvin Kamara?

1011
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 4: What if they both said?

1012
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's kind of my point though, I'm like, my

1013
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 3: thing is, I'm trying to think about.

1014
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 4: Okay, I'll take plus ten. Yeah, sure, I'll take Ingram

1015
00:45:58,520 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 4: plus ten two.

1016
00:45:59,480 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1017
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 2: I think guys are awful plays this week too.

1018
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, because I'm trying to think, like what you

1019
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 3: guys think.

1020
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 5: You know, Kamara is obviously the more likely one to rest,

1021
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 5: but does do you think that that props Ingram into

1022
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 5: a more featured role and they try to get him

1023
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 5: up to speed because he missed earlier, they're just going

1024
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 5: to rest him too, and got.

1025
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 4: Yeah they got to rest. Yeah, he's too he's too important.

1026
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,839
Speaker 4: They'll they'll just run Dwayne Washington on the ground. They

1027
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 4: don't care, you know, I Like I said earlier that

1028
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 4: they could rest both and then Dwayne Washington's a great play.

1029
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 4: You know, he might get vultured by a guy like

1030
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 4: Zach Line or something. But now I think they just

1031
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,800
Speaker 4: put put everything on Dwayne Washington's play this week and

1032
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 4: just look to the playoffs.

1033
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 2: I got, I got a fun running back one for

1034
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 2: one game. You guys taken out of Elijah MacGuire, James White,

1035
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 2: and Sony Michelle all in the same game.

1036
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 3: Welijah.

1037
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 2: I like Elijah too.

1038
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 3: He just like he gets a ton of pass game usage.

1039
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 5: He's he's getting at like seventy you know, seventy percent,

1040
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 5: you know, snap rate, So it's he has that like

1041
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 5: potential for that that smash spot. Whereas Michelle, I mean

1042
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 5: he gets to carry, but the targets usually aren't there.

1043
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 5: And then White is the opposite problem.

1044
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 2: The basically argument for the Patriots. Guys, those they're thirteen

1045
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 2: and a half point favorites at home.

1046
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: That's interesting. They're all I think, all in a bunch. Yeah,

1047
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: I guess I would probably go with McGuire just because

1048
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: I think he's going to have the most usage. But

1049
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: Michelle is a big home favorite. Is really interesting, Like

1050
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 1: I could see him having one of those like one

1051
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 1: hundred yard two touchdown games.

1052
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 2: Would you take a Patriots running back to out score McGuire?

1053
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:28,879
Speaker 2: I would have given the.

1054
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 4: Choice, Yeah, yeah, I'll take McGuire, but I haven't basically

1055
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 4: tied with White obviously, this game doesn't really set up

1056
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 4: for James White game. It's more of a Michelle game.

1057
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 4: But also, you know Rex Burkehead. He had a big

1058
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 4: spike in snaps and uses this week, so I think

1059
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 4: it up big. You can get some Rex Burkehead in

1060
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 4: the second half. So I'm avoiding the Patriots running backs

1061
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 4: all together. And I do like McGuire, so I'm going

1062
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 4: with him.

1063
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's it. I would go with McGuire to out

1064
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 3: score like all the Patriots running back.

1065
00:47:57,360 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 2: So given the choice highest scoring running back in the game,

1066
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 2: I guess the good prop would be McGuire or Patriots

1067
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 2: running back.

1068
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 3: I haven't gone McGuire, so Patriots running back.

1069
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll take any Patriots running back because I get

1070
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 4: James Devlin double dog too, just in case. Oh yes,

1071
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 4: all right, So moving to wide receiver, who will score

1072
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 4: more DK points Antonio Brown or Juju Smith Schuster and

1073
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 4: I do have a spread. It's not a pick up.

1074
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 4: I'm not that nice, So Antonio Brown minus two.

1075
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 1: I'll take Antonio Brown. I hate myself.

1076
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 3: Ah yeah, Antonio Brown at home all day.

1077
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll go ab too, but it's close.

1078
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 4: Juju might play with some fire to make up for

1079
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 4: the fumble so much what he did exactly. Next up,

1080
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 4: Robbie Anderson total receiving yards at New England over under

1081
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 4: sixty five and a half mean median situation.

1082
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: I'll take the over. I think the targets he should

1083
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: just get me A lot of targets, and enough of

1084
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 1: them are the big play target variety where I think

1085
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: we'll get it.

1086
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:04,760
Speaker 3: That's a good line.

1087
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 5: I will go over because I haven't just over, But yeah,

1088
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 5: that could go BEI the way I think Wick Freeman said,

1089
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 5: it's he gets so many of those high areaard targets

1090
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 5: that all he needs is like one play to kind

1091
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 5: of push him, you know, seventy five percent of the

1092
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 5: way there.

1093
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, that's a tough line to set. He and

1094
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 4: Arnold are ending this season a really strong note, so

1095
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 4: you know that trajectory. I'm willing to set a line

1096
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 4: pretty high for them.

1097
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 5: No, you know, it's crazy that the the last Jets

1098
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 5: offensive coordinator from last year allegedly got fired because he

1099
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 5: was too he schemed too much to Robbie Anderson, and

1100
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 5: it seems that, you know, this whole year, they've kind

1101
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 5: of been downplaying him until these last few games where

1102
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 5: they've been forced to feature him because of the injuries,

1103
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:47,280
Speaker 5: and lo and behold we see their their passing offense

1104
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 5: starts to get some life.

1105
00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 3: So that's that was kind of curious.

1106
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, we've debated on the hot and it's like, well, yeah,

1107
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 4: they were going to throw to him or Sharon Peak

1108
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 4: and our Darius Stewart, so I don't have a choice.

1109
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 4: So yeah, and you know, like the noon wall is out,

1110
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 4: I know, Curse is banged up, so yeah, there's no

1111
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 4: reason to not just aired up to Robbie this week.

1112
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 4: So next up we mentioned briefly, but he's the guy

1113
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 4: that we always have to monitor is Julio Jones at

1114
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. This is he has to play for this

1115
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 4: to be action, of course, but over under eighty seven

1116
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 4: and a half receiving arts for who again, Sorry missed that.

1117
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 4: Julio take under.

1118
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 2: I think you could play and then sit and I

1119
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 2: think he might not play too, but I'll take the

1120
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:32,399
Speaker 2: under just given the uncertainty with.

1121
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,879
Speaker 3: Him I'm gonna I'm gonna here either.

1122
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 5: I think they might not leave him out there for

1123
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 5: the whole game, and that's that you worry about that.

1124
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 3: With that, with such a high, such a high, one.

1125
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 4: Next step is tight end. Who will score more DK

1126
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:47,760
Speaker 4: points this week? Zach Ertz or George Kittle?

1127
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 2: Kittle that I hate to say anything negative about my

1128
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 2: boy zach Ertz.

1129
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, give me Kittle at this point, just because you

1130
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 5: have you know, as we mentioned, everyone's banged up in

1131
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 5: San Francisco, you have Kittle kind of approaching a thirty

1132
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 5: percent target share over the last few weeks, as it's.

1133
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 3: A little more more mouth to feed.

1134
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:09,719
Speaker 5: And I know Sean kind of likes that the Redskins

1135
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:11,439
Speaker 5: in this spot, and I agree. I think it could

1136
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 5: be one of those lower scoring games.

1137
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 3: And you know that's just not.

1138
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 5: Conducive to to putting up a smash spot as much

1139
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 5: as you know Kittle in a higher scoring game.

1140
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 1: I want to take Ertz because I think he's actually

1141
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 1: gotten more targets in his games with with Foles actually

1142
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:34,319
Speaker 1: than with wins. But yeah, Kittle. I mean I had

1143
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 1: to go with Kittle just because the receiver group in

1144
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,799
Speaker 1: San Francisco is just so decimated. He's basically the only

1145
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 1: one left.

1146
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's going for the tight end yardage record. Kelsey's

1147
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 4: up by four y eight yards. And Bovado was actually

1148
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 4: floating a line for this, and they had Kelsey at

1149
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:56,720
Speaker 4: minus one thirty and I came up the percent chances

1150
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 4: of him winning. It was like sixty two percent or something.

1151
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 4: So you might want to tick that line if it's

1152
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 4: still up. Next up, Kyle Rudolph. He you know, finally

1153
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 4: had a ceiling game this year. His total DK points

1154
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:15,319
Speaker 4: this week at home, tough spot against the Bears over under,

1155
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 4: seven and a half DK points for Rudolph.

1156
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 2: Under under, but shout out Rudolph, Yeah that was crazy.

1157
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,959
Speaker 5: I'll go over. I'll go over. I think he can.

1158
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 5: He can get there just a by catching a few

1159
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 5: passes underneath. So you know, kind of waiting for him

1160
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 5: progress to the meet all year.

1161
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 3: It happened last game, but it doesn't mean it's necessarily

1162
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 3: done so.

1163
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 4: Last but at least Evan Ingram this is it's in

1164
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 4: play whether Odell ends up playing or not. I think

1165
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 4: the last three games he's had had over seventy five

1166
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 4: receives yards or something in a row. I'm going to

1167
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,720
Speaker 4: set his line at man, this is a tough one.

1168
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 4: I'm gonna set it at sixty one and a half.

1169
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,720
Speaker 2: Want is read Allison too, who was getting some targets

1170
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 2: and then got hurt and plays. I want to take

1171
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 2: the under, but if he doesn't, I want to take

1172
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 2: the over, So I'll I'll.

1173
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 4: Take Yeah, if he's if he's a dealing with a concussion,

1174
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 4: there's no reason to send him out there.

1175
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 2: I'll take over.

1176
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 1: I will take the over on yardage for Ingram.

1177
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 5: That's just a high number for me for for a

1178
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 5: tight end, especially in a game where it could be

1179
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 5: like a.

1180
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 3: It could be an ugly game.

1181
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 5: I think I do have Ei going over the prop

1182
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 5: Sean mentioned, but I do not have Ingram going over

1183
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 5: this one. So I'm gonna stick with my stick with

1184
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 5: the projection under.

1185
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 4: So I mist spoke earlier. The probably talking about was

1186
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 4: the big bend versus Mahomes one.

1187
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 1: Oh for for passing gardage? Yeah, yep, okay, what did

1188
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 1: you do?

1189
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 5: So?

1190
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:44,360
Speaker 1: Right now the line is Roethlisberger negative one forty to

1191
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:46,280
Speaker 1: win the passing yardage title.

1192
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got it one minus one thirty, but it

1193
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 4: should be closer to like minus two fifty probably, so

1194
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 4: I wan minus one forty is definitely still some value

1195
00:53:57,160 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 4: on it.

1196
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, that is going to do it for this epist.

1197
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 1: SOT of the Action Network NFL podcast. A quick scheduling reminder.

1198
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: No show on Monday next week, but we will have

1199
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 1: the normal schedule of a show on Wednesday and a

1200
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 1: show on Friday for Peter Jennings, Seawan Corner, and Chris Raybond.

1201
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Friedman, Matt f The Oracle, See you get

1202
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: next episode.