WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Wei Li & Ed Morse

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea in a day where we could

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<v Speaker 2>have done a two hour single best idea. Thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth Economy from Stanford joining to give us an update

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<v Speaker 2>here with important meetings for President g in China riveting.

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<v Speaker 2>Particularly her comments on Taiwan omar Aguilar was just brilliant

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<v Speaker 2>on stated the case for rebalancing. We then looked forward

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<v Speaker 2>to high networth Patrick Ferzetti it Rose Advisors on this

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<v Speaker 2>heated debate over rebalancing within non retirement accounts, taxable accounts

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<v Speaker 2>and also of course within ERISA nineteen seventy four. Way

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<v Speaker 2>Ley stopped buy. We started strong with Waylee of Blackrock.

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<v Speaker 2>She's been brilliant out on LinkedIn. I can't say enough

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<v Speaker 2>about the short charts, complex charts, as she puts out

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<v Speaker 2>on LinkedIn, the only equivalent is Uri and timor at Fidelity.

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<v Speaker 2>Wayley of Blackrock here talking about the FED and markets.

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<v Speaker 3>We do think that in the very near term markets

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<v Speaker 3>that can go with this narrative that's because of weak

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<v Speaker 3>labor markets. Actually the defense needs to cut and because

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<v Speaker 3>there is micro justification for that, maybe the long end

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<v Speaker 3>of the curve is not going to be penalized in

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<v Speaker 3>that to premium may not go higher as markets challenge

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<v Speaker 3>the independence topic. So that is a bit of a

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<v Speaker 3>sweet sport for treasuries.

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<v Speaker 2>Waily there of Blackrock there and the Treasury is Paul.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's interested in the credit markets and the

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<v Speaker 2>equity markets. She said, just simply stay on board technology

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<v Speaker 2>generating profit was the leader of her LinkedIn piece Today

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<v Speaker 2>again Wayley at Blackrock, What a pleasure to have Edward

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<v Speaker 2>Morrison today absolutely definitive as public service to the nation

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<v Speaker 2>had so much to do with the Middle East in oil.

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<v Speaker 2>His lifetime work at City Group and now at Heartree Partners,

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<v Speaker 2>he works every day just as he has for decades.

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<v Speaker 2>Here Edward Morse on the supply in the myth of

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<v Speaker 2>our demand.

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<v Speaker 1>The myth that's wrong is that oil demand is peaking,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's peaking in twenty twenty eight or twenty thirty two.

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<v Speaker 1>The consensus in the market seems to be that oil

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<v Speaker 1>demand is peaking. Yet if you try to study oil demand,

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<v Speaker 1>you can notice that whatever the cycles have been, GDP

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<v Speaker 1>is the driver of oil demand and GDP relationship with oil.

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<v Speaker 1>The oil intensity of GDP is certainly falling. It's been

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<v Speaker 1>falling at a steady pace. It's a very linear line

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<v Speaker 1>from where we were in the early seventies when for

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<v Speaker 1>every one percent increase in GDP around the world, and

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<v Speaker 1>we do this in constant dollars. By the way, there

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<v Speaker 1>was over one percent demand for oil that has come

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<v Speaker 1>down linearly. And we just looked deeply at twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>through the first half of twenty twenty five, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>on a slope that tells us that oil demand is

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<v Speaker 1>going to peak in twenty sixty four.

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<v Speaker 2>Ed Morris of Heart Tree Partners. Doctor Morse also mentioned

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<v Speaker 2>yes ev is becoming part of the calculus here, electric

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<v Speaker 2>vehicles part of the mix of the microeconomics, price theory

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<v Speaker 2>of oil. On podcasts, well, we're out at Apple, we're

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<v Speaker 2>out at Spotify and YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.