1 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to neutrald Podcast on the iHeart podcast network. You 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: may have noticed we've reformatted the show. We figured it 3 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: was a good time to do this. I've been hosting 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: this podcast since twenty nineteen, and I want to thank 5 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: you for listening and supporting us over the years. So 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: moving forward, we're going to start each show with my 7 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: thoughts on what's happening in the world today. This is 8 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: a pivotal moment in American history. President Trump has been 9 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: very aggressive in pushing American interests and taking gambles going 10 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 1: into Venezuela to replace the Maduro regime by literally replacing 11 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: Maduro and what was a brilliant operation trying to on 12 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 1: the one hand, prop up the Ukrainian government, on the 13 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: other hand, not get into a nuclear war with Russia, 14 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: make sure that we are helping get to some kind 15 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: of stable peace in Gaza. Now, of course, a major 16 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: fight with the Iranians, who I think turned out to 17 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: be a little better trenched in. I think they're done 18 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: a little bit more job of both in the organization 19 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: inside Iran and in their having thought through how to 20 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: resist the opening wave of Israeli An American attacks. So 21 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: they've proven to be I think a little more formidable 22 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: than some people thought they would be, which doesn't mean 23 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: they're going to win. At the same time, all of 24 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: this creates ripples, and so you have grave concern about gasoline, 25 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: and you have a pretty large block of Americans who 26 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: know that if Donald Trump did it, it's wrong. We've 27 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: been at war for a couple of weeks. We have 28 00:01:56,080 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: had absolute dominance. We have been steady degrading the military 29 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: and governmental capabilities of the dictatorship. When you think about 30 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 1: traditional wars and how long they last and how difficult 31 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 1: they are, people already are saying, oh, this is terrible, 32 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: We're going to lose. What of a truce Tuesday? You 33 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 1: would think when their own countries engaged against an enemy, 34 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: by the way, who has been fighting us since nineteen 35 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: seventy nine, it's important to remind your friends and neighbors. 36 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: As soon as Iya Tolahomania took over in Iran, he 37 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: declared the United States was the great Satan. Politicians in 38 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: Iran have ever since nineteen seventy nine chanted death to America. 39 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: They actually seized sixty of our diplomats illegally held them 40 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: hostage for four hundred and forty four days illegally waged 41 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: war against US in Lebanon, where they killed over two 42 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 1: hundred and forty Marines, where they kidnapped and tortured and 43 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: then sent to President Reagan the audio tape of the 44 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: American CIA chief of the region being tortured to death. 45 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: These are not nice people, and they have recently killed 46 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: over thirty thousand Iranians who were demonstrating for freedom. And 47 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: we're up against the dictatorship which is dangerous and has 48 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: proven consistently that it's prepared to fight and to take 49 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: on the United States. So I think we have an 50 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: obligation to be a little calm. This is a huge 51 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: country in the United States. It's an enormous economy. We 52 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: have fabulous resources. The fact is we will muddle through 53 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: and everything will be fine. And it's also important to remember 54 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: the elections not next Tuesday, elections, not till November. I 55 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: was with George H. W. Bush as Vice president when 56 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: he was behind by nineteen points in May. He won 57 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: the election. Harry Truman was so far behind running for 58 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: reelection the gallop quit palling because they said it was over. 59 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: I think we feel a little bit cautious and thinking 60 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: of life as a polaroid snapshot. Life is a motion picture. 61 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: Things can change, events happen. I think the United States 62 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 1: has most of the advantages in the competitions that are 63 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: going on. We are enormously ahead in artificial intelligence, we 64 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: are very far ahead, and reusable vehicles to get into space. 65 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: We have the most innovative society in the world. We 66 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: have the most powerful capitalist society for going out and 67 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: starting new companies, having people. You go back and look 68 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: at who founded what are now giant companies, and you'll 69 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: find that in the Silicon Valley tradition a lot of them, 70 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: more like eighteen nineteen twenty four. Because America is a place, 71 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: we just keep inventing the future. So I'm an optimist. 72 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 1: I think in the end, the Iranian dictatorship will fall. 73 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: I think in the end Venezuela will gradually become more open, 74 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: more peaceful, and ultimately will have a free election. I 75 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: think in the end the Cuban dictatorship is almost certainly 76 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 1: going to evolve and will not be able to survive 77 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 1: as an anti American dictatorship. All of this is a 78 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: tribute to Donald Trump, which, of course nobody in the 79 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: media is ever going to give him credit for, but 80 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: his firm sense of putting America first, of doing what works, 81 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: of not worrying about the daily headlines, and not worrying 82 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: about the academics and the think tanks and the liberal 83 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: news media, that has really begun to profoundly change history. 84 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: And that's a topic I'll be coming back to again 85 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 1: and again, because I think it's important to recognize we 86 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: are living in a unique historic moment, something which fifty 87 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: years from now people will be studying because the scale 88 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: of change the President Trump represents at home and abroad 89 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: is so enormous, and the degree to which he is 90 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: persisting and organizing and pushing to get that scale of 91 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 1: change is so remarkable that I think it's important to 92 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:25,239 Speaker 1: be optimistic that, in fact, we have a dramatically better future. 93 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: Coming coming up, we're going to talk about the future 94 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: of Cuba given the crisis they are facing, with my 95 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: guest doctor William Leo Gram. I'm really pleased to welcome 96 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: my guest, doctor William Leo Grand. He is a non 97 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 1: resident fellow at the Quincy Institute and Associate Advice Provost 98 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 1: for Academic Affairs, Professor of Government, and Dean Emeritus of 99 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: the School of Public Affairs at American University in Washington, DC. 100 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: He holds a PhD in political science from the Maxwell 101 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: School at Syracuse University. Professor Leogrand specializes in comparative politics 102 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: and US foreign policy and has written widely in the 103 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: field of Latin American politics and US policy toward the region, 104 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: with a particular interest in Central American Cuba. William, welcome 105 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: and thank you for joining you on News World. 106 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 2: Well, thanks for having me on. I appreciate it. 107 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: This is a remarkable moment, at least it seems like 108 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: it could be becoming a remarkable moment in the history 109 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: of Cuba and his relationship with the US. But to 110 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: understand that, can we go back and look at how 111 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: does Cuba's evolution in Cuba's history help explain where we 112 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 1: are today. 113 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 2: Well, Q had a revolution in nineteen fifty nine Fidel 114 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: Castro first came to power. It was a revolution that 115 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 2: lasted basically from around nineteen fifty three, when he first 116 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 2: launched an attack on a military post in Santiago de Cuba. 117 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 2: It was really a revolution initially against a military dictatorship 118 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 2: Fulgenzio Battista, who had been an ally of the United 119 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 2: States since the nineteen thirties became really ruthless during the 120 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 2: nineteen fifties, very repressive and alienated most of Cuban society, 121 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 2: and that gave rise to an armed insurrection against Batista, 122 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 2: both in the mountains and in the cities, and Fidel 123 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 2: Castro emerged as the leader of that and they triumphed 124 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 2: on January first, nineteen fifty nine, and gradually that evolved 125 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 2: over the next two years into a socialist revolution, and 126 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 2: relations with the United States, as you can imagine, deteriorated 127 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 2: pretty rapidly. As a result of that. Cuba looked to 128 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 2: the Soviet Union as a partner because we imposed both 129 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 2: economic sanctions on Cuba as it moved to the left 130 00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 2: and radicalized. And of course President Eisenhower began the planning 131 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 2: for the Bea Pigs invasion and other paramilitary actions to 132 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 2: try to overthrow the Cuban government. He didn't get that 133 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 2: done before he left office, but President Kennedy picked up 134 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 2: and carried through on the Bey of Pigs, and of 135 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 2: course it became sort of what one author called the 136 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 2: perfect failure and a terrible embarrassment. From there, we went 137 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,319 Speaker 2: to the Cuban Missile crisis in which for the first 138 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 2: time the world really came to the edge of nuclear 139 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 2: holocaust when the Russians tried to put medium range nuclear 140 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: weapons into Cuba. And we've had a bad relationship with 141 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 2: Cuba pretty much ever since then. 142 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: How much of that relationship involved the amount of property 143 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: seized by the new Castro dictatorship in sixty sixty one. 144 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 2: So Castro seized basically all American owned private property on 145 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 2: the island in nineteen sixty to sixty one, and most 146 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 2: of the private sector in Cuba as well. And so 147 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 2: there are two kinds of outstanding claims. One is the 148 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: certified claims of US companies and US citizens who lost 149 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 2: property during that period. The other is the claims of 150 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 2: Cuban Americans who were Cuban citizens at the time but 151 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 2: have since become naturalized US citizens, and who are entitled 152 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 2: to some redress of their losses under the nineteen ninety 153 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 2: six Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, which is also 154 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 2: known as the Helms Burton Act for the members of 155 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 2: Congress who sponsored it. Those claims issues have always been 156 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:47,559 Speaker 2: on the agenda of US negotiations with Cuba. The United 157 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 2: States government has always been trying to reach some kind 158 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 2: of compensation for those from the Cuban government. Cuba recognizes 159 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 2: that it has an obligation to settle the claims of 160 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 2: the US companies and individuals the certified claims because under 161 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:09,559 Speaker 2: an international law that's the norm. It does not recognize 162 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 2: that it has an obligation to settle the claims of 163 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 2: Cuban Americans because they were Cuban citizens at the time. Now, 164 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 2: the reality is, I think if Cuba wants Cuban Americans 165 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 2: to invest in the island going forward, they're going to 166 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 2: have to find some mechanism for settling those claims. 167 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: But given the decay of the Cuban economy, could they 168 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 1: possibly have the resources to meet all those claims. 169 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 2: No, absolutely not. At the moment, they don't have any resources. 170 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 2: They don't have enough resources today to keep the lights on. 171 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 2: But there's a long history of countries settling claims. We 172 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 2: settled claims finally with all of the European Socialist countries, 173 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: and there are lots of different mechanisms. There are debt 174 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 2: equity swaps, there are ways to set up funds based 175 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 2: on tariffs that then can provide the money to pay claims. 176 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 2: Over a longer period of time. The reality is that 177 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 2: most of the commercial claims those are properties now that 178 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 2: the claimants really don't want to reclaim. What the claimants 179 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 2: would like to have is some kind of financial compensation 180 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 2: and new access to the Cuban market. So I think 181 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 2: if the two sides actually have the political will to 182 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 2: come to an agreement and settle those claims, there are 183 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 2: ways that can be worked out to do that. 184 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 1: Isn't it true that in the nineteen fifties Cuba was 185 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: sort of the jewel of the Caribbean that had hotels, 186 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 1: that had casinos, that was seen as a very good 187 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 1: place to go for vacation. There were reasons, except for 188 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 1: the way the Batista government degenerated into a repressive dictatorship, 189 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 1: the reasons to believe that Cuba could have had a 190 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: really good future, relatively prosperous future. 191 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 2: Cuba was in the nineteen fifties one of the more 192 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:15,599 Speaker 2: developed Latin American countries economically, but it suffered from tremendous inequalities. 193 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 2: The center of the Cuban economy was sugar, and during 194 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: the Spanish colonial period it was slave labor that manned 195 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 2: the sugar plantations, and there had always been and remained 196 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: in the nineteen fifties, enormous discrepancy between middle class and 197 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 2: upper class Cubans living in urban areas and poor Afro 198 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 2: Cubans living in rural areas, and that was the source 199 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 2: of social tension really from the time that slavery ended 200 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:49,679 Speaker 2: and colonialism ended all the way up through the nineteen fifties. 201 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 2: But Cuba could have addressed some of those problems, I guess, 202 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:57,559 Speaker 2: but it never had a government that was really willing 203 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 2: to tackle both the racial issue and the inequality issue, 204 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 2: and that gave Fidel Castro a political platform to run on. 205 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: When Castro does take over, the significant number of the 206 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: Cuban middle class and upper class leave, they do redistribute 207 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: the property and for a while it seems like it's working. 208 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: And in fact, Cuba became an exporter of military capabilities 209 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:29,479 Speaker 1: and special police capabilitism. They're in places like Mozambique and Angola, 210 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: Granada and so forth, and I think that up to 211 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: the most recent American intervention, they had a very significant 212 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: role to play in Venezuela. But out of all that, 213 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: they also were very dependent, seems to me on foreign money. 214 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: And when the Soviet Union collapsed, the major source of 215 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: their subsidies collapsed with it, and in a pretty large crisis. 216 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: I think they've lost about a third of their gross 217 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: domestic product after the Soviet Union collapsed. How would you 218 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: compare the current crisis in Cuba economically with what it 219 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: was like back in the mid nineties. 220 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 2: Well, it started out very similar. When the Soviet Union collapsed, 221 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 2: Cuba lost about three billion dollars a year worth of 222 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 2: economic assistance that it was getting from the Soviet Union 223 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 2: and had been getting from the Soviet Union for a 224 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 2: long time in the very early years of the Cuban Revolution, 225 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 2: when Castro gave people free healthcare, free education, low cost housing, 226 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 2: guaranteed a job, and guaranteed subsistence income at least, the 227 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 2: revolution was very popular with Cubans, especially most of the 228 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 2: poor Cubans who had supported it in the first place 229 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 2: and didn't leave. But the problem was Cuba was a 230 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: poor country still, and it didn't really produce enough to 231 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 2: sustain at a level of extensive social welfare. The way 232 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 2: it was able to do it for twenty to thirty 233 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 2: years was with the help that it got from the 234 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 2: Soviet Union. Now, there were economic ups and downs during 235 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 2: that period, for sure, but was able to maintain that 236 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: level of social services because of the subsidies it got 237 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 2: from the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the 238 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 2: Cuban economy collapsed with it, and you're right, they lost 239 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 2: thirty five percent of their gross domestic product and things 240 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 2: were really desperate on the island. What we've seen in 241 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 2: Cuba over the last couple of years, really since the 242 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 2: end of the pandemic, is a similar kind of dynamic. 243 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 2: Cuba had become dependent on its deal with Venezuela to 244 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 2: send Cuban doctors and medical technicians to Venezuela to provide 245 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: medical services to poor people to Ugo Chavez's constituency in 246 00:16:55,520 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: exchange for low cost Venezuela and oil. And as Venezuelan 247 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 2: oil production declined because the government there wasn't maintaining the 248 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 2: industry properly, what they were sending to Cuba declined as well. 249 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 2: And then finally, of course, since January third, when the 250 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:19,640 Speaker 2: United States grabbed President Maduro, Venezuela has not sent any 251 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 2: oil to Cuba, and that has been a disaster for 252 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 2: the Cuban economy. And more recently, President Trump has threatened 253 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 2: US sanctions on any other country that sends oil to Cuba. 254 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 2: And so right now nobody's sending oil to Cuba, and 255 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 2: about sixty percent of their oil is normally imported. So 256 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 2: the economy really is in a very desperate situation right now. 257 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: And weren't they already having rolling electric blackouts before Venezuelan intervention. 258 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 2: Yes, they were, and it was precisely because Venezuela and 259 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 2: oil shipments to Cuba had already fallen about seventy five 260 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 2: percent from what they had been about a decade ago 261 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 2: at the peak. 262 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: There was a brief period under President Obama where there 263 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: was sort of an effort at real Prochemont, and it 264 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 1: seems to me that Obama was trying to find a 265 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 1: way to stabilize our relationship with QBA. We recognized them. 266 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: Sexualary of Saint John Carey actually went to Havana to 267 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: ceremonially raise the American flag over the ussembacy. But then 268 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: that sort of became cut off almost immediately by the 269 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 1: Trump administration when they took over. And I don't get 270 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: the sense that the Biden administration spent much energy trying 271 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: to get back to the Obama modeled me. Would that 272 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: be a fair. 273 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 2: Summary, absolutely fair summary, and I think a lot of 274 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 2: Democrats were really surprised, and as an analyst, I was 275 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 2: surprised that President Biden did not go back to the 276 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,919 Speaker 2: Obama policy of Rob Roschmart. I mean, after all, he 277 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 2: was President Obama's vice president. During the campaign, he said 278 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 2: that he would go back to the Obama policy. For 279 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,679 Speaker 2: the most part, he qualified it. But a couple of 280 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 2: things happened, I think early in his presidency that changed 281 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 2: his mind. One was, I'm sure you remember his first 282 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 2: speech to Congress as president framed his foreign policy as 283 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:29,959 Speaker 2: a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. And the authoritarian 284 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 2: countries he identified as on the other side of this 285 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 2: struggle were Russia and China, same countries as in the 286 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 2: Cold War. And of course Cuba had a good economic 287 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 2: relationship and to some extent strategic partnership still with both 288 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 2: Russia and China, and Cuba is an authoritarian country, and 289 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 2: so Cuba was in fact placed on the other side 290 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 2: in this global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. So there 291 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 2: was that element of it. There wasnationwide demonstrations in Cuba 292 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 2: on July eleventh, twenty twenty one. First demonstrations like that 293 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 2: since nineteen fifty nine, and the government repressed them, not 294 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 2: with as much violence as we've seen, for example, in 295 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 2: Iran recently, but nevertheless they repressed them. They arrested about 296 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 2: a thousand people. And President Biden always had a commitment 297 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,479 Speaker 2: to internationally recognized human rights, and I think he felt 298 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 2: like he couldn't move forward with a better relationship with 299 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 2: Cuba in the wake of that crackdown. And finally, of course, 300 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 2: there's always been the domestic political consideration of the political 301 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 2: power of the Cuban American community in South Florida, and 302 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: during the Obama period, there was strong support in the 303 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 2: Cuban American community for Obama's policy of rap Roschman. By 304 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,119 Speaker 2: the end of the Obama administration, fifty six percent of 305 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 2: Cuban Americans in a South Florida pole reported that they 306 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 2: were in favor of lifting the embargo entirely. But Donald 307 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,679 Speaker 2: Trump's first term turned that around because Donald Trump, I 308 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 2: think revitalized the feeling in the Cuban American community that 309 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 2: the Castro government could be overthrown. And so by the 310 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,360 Speaker 2: time Biden came in, we had already seen it kind 311 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 2: of a shift back toward a more hardline majority in 312 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 2: the Cuban American community, and I think that there was 313 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 2: still that sense among Democrats that, oh, we mustn't alienate 314 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 2: this constituency because they played such an important role in 315 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 2: the year two thousand when it was the issue of 316 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:43,400 Speaker 2: Cuba that gave the presidency to George W. Bush. 317 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: When we come back, I want to talk about how 318 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,719 Speaker 1: Venezuela and the entire approach of Centu of State Rubio 319 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: are affecting where we are, So we'll get to this 320 00:21:55,400 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: in just America. I think it's fascinating that with Marco 321 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: Rubio as National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, you 322 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 1: have a first generation American whose parents fled Cuba. He 323 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: has thought about this his entire life. He is from 324 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: South Florida. He is representative of the Cuban American community, 325 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: and he seems to be across all of Latin America 326 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: applying pressure both to cut out the Chinese and secondarily 327 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: the Russians and Iranians, but also to really move the 328 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 1: countries back towards more free market economics and a more 329 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: close relationship to the United States. And of course, the 330 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 1: impact of the raid which captured Nicholas Maduro and his wife. 331 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: Was an enormous shock. I think to people. I think 332 00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: there were a very few people who have said to 333 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 1: you on the first of January that will have a 334 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: dramatic regime change, then that will be done so cleanly 335 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,199 Speaker 1: and with so little direct use of force. How do 336 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: you think that shock affected Cuba and the rest of 337 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:16,120 Speaker 1: Latin America. 338 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,199 Speaker 2: Well, it was clearly a really big shock. It is 339 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 2: the first time in a long time that the United 340 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 2: States has used military intervention against the Latin American country. 341 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 2: But we saw, you know, in the President's new National 342 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 2: Security Strategy document, a very clear statement that this administration 343 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 2: regards the Western hemisphere as a sphere of influence of 344 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 2: the United States. The security document claims that the United 345 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 2: States must be pre eminent in the Western hemisphere, and 346 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 2: the President himself has used the word dominant in the 347 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 2: Western hemisphere, and that hearkens back to, of course, the 348 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: Monroe Doctrine, which the President has updated in calling it 349 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 2: the Donro Doctrine, which means that we won't tolerate the 350 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:09,959 Speaker 2: influence of extra hemispheric powers, specifically as you said, Russia, China, 351 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 2: and Iran, but also that we're not going to tolerate 352 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 2: really adversarial regimes in the region either, and so first 353 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 2: we saw the intervention in Venezuela. Now we're seeing pressure 354 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 2: on Cuba, and of course there is a third regime Nicaragua, 355 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 2: which may be next on the agenda whenever the administration 356 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 2: settles what it's trying to do with Cuba one way 357 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 2: or another, whatever that actually is, because we don't really 358 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,640 Speaker 2: have a clear idea yet of what the president means 359 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 2: when he says he's going to take over Cuba. 360 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 1: It's not as clear as occasionally some of his truth 361 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 1: social tweets. Do you think the current dictatorship could afford to, 362 00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: in fact allow a great deal more freedom if that 363 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: was the cost of oil and economic survival, or do 364 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: you think that the potential for the system to implode 365 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 1: is so great that they really can't back up and 366 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: create a zone of civil liberty. 367 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 2: So of course we're in discussion with Cuba right now. 368 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 2: I mean, the president has been talking about it for 369 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 2: the past month or so, and the Cuban government just 370 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 2: last week admitted finally that yes, in fact, they are 371 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 2: talking with us. We don't quite know what the agenda 372 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 2: of those talks is, but it seems to focus more 373 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 2: on economic issues than political ones. And even Secretary Rubio, who, 374 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 2: of course, as you say, built his political career around 375 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 2: wanting to see a change in the government in Cuba, 376 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 2: has been emphasizing the economic side of things, and he's 377 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 2: been careful to say, well, change has to be gradual. 378 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 2: It's not going to change overnight. We have to be patient, 379 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 2: and there needs to be dramatic economic change and political 380 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 2: change eventually, he said. Now, I thought that was a 381 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 2: really interesting adverb that he added there. Eventually it has 382 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 2: to be political change. And we've seen, of course in 383 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 2: Venezuela that the administration has clearly prioritized economic change over 384 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 2: political change, particularly getting US oil companies back into the 385 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,639 Speaker 2: Venezuelan oil industry. That's been problematic, of course, because the 386 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 2: Venezuelan oil industry is so deteriorated that most oil companies 387 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 2: are not really interested in trying to go in there 388 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 2: and spend several billion dollars trying to bring it up 389 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 2: to the production levels it had before. We saw the 390 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 2: CEO of excell and tell the President face to face 391 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 2: that Venezuela right now is uninvestable, but put that aside. 392 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 2: I mean, clearly, the United States is priority in our 393 00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 2: relations with Venezuela has been the oil companies and the 394 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 2: oil industry, and the administration has been willing to leave 395 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 2: most of the current political regime in place for fear 396 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,120 Speaker 2: that if you just try to remove it all, what 397 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 2: you'll end up with is another Iraq. And the president 398 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,919 Speaker 2: said that very explicitly. Someone asked him, why haven't you 399 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 2: allowed Maria Karina Machado, whose opposition movement won the twenty 400 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 2: twenty four election, why haven't you helped her back into power? 401 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 2: And the President said, do you remember Iraq where we 402 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,200 Speaker 2: fired everybody and what happened? So I would assume there's 403 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 2: this sort of similar logic that would apply in the 404 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 2: Cuba case. And I think that's why most of the discussions, 405 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 2: what we know of them so far, have focused on 406 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 2: economic issues. I think there's an economic deal to be made, actually, 407 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 2: because even Cuba's leaders know the economy is areq, and 408 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 2: not only because of US sanctions, and there's been a 409 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 2: deadlock in Cuba over economic change. There's some people in 410 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,200 Speaker 2: the leadership who've been pushing for more of a move 411 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 2: toward a kind of market economy like Vietnam, for example, 412 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 2: And there's been others who are not willing to let 413 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 2: go of the past. This current crisis may actually strengthen 414 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 2: the hand of people who want to see economic reform 415 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 2: on the island. And if we could get an agreement 416 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 2: between Cube and the United States that focuses on opening 417 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,679 Speaker 2: up the economy, getting US investors back in, lifting some 418 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,120 Speaker 2: of the sanctions in return, you could see a real 419 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,960 Speaker 2: economic revival on the island, not overnight, but over the 420 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 2: next couple of years. But that's not going to be 421 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 2: enough for Cuban Americans in South Florida. And my guess 422 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 2: is that's probably not going to be enough for Marco Rubio, 423 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 2: although I think it might be enough for the president. 424 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 2: I think we just have to wait and see how 425 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 2: that evolves. But if we don't get an agreement and 426 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 2: the current situation continues, the Cuban economy is going to 427 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 2: collapse in relatively short order, and you're going to have 428 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 2: massive social unrest on the island and potentially a migration 429 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 2: crisis like we saw in nineteen eighty, nineteen ninety four 430 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 2: and after COVID and that is not good for the 431 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 2: interests of the United States. 432 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 1: When we come back, I want to pick up on 433 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: your comments about Marco Rubio, because it seems to me 434 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 1: that he is at a remarkable run so far across 435 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: the whole planet and has certainly turned out to be 436 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 1: dramatically more influential than he was back in the Senate. 437 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: So we'll talk about that in just a minute. The 438 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: rise of Marco Rubio, who's always been very impressive. I 439 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: knew him back when he was a state legislator before 440 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,959 Speaker 1: he became Speaker of the House in Florida, and then 441 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 1: became senator, ran for pres and lost, and continued in 442 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 1: the Senate, and then was chosen by President Trump to 443 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 1: be sexual State and then ended up doing something that 444 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: only Kissinger had done, and that is being both National 445 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 1: Security Advisor and sexuary estate. But I can tell you, 446 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 1: sitting here in Europe, the impact of Rubio's speech to 447 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 1: the Munich Security Conference, the subtlety of it, the tone 448 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 1: of it was a tour de force. People looked at 449 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 1: that and thought, well, and we've seen him come and 450 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: go through Geneva for meetings on Ukraine, meetings on Iran, 451 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 1: meetings on Gaza. 452 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 2: I'm trus. 453 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 1: How do you assess his general role and what you've 454 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: seen so far of him as a leader in making 455 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 1: American foreign policy well. 456 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 2: I think he clearly has become the President's right hand 457 00:30:54,760 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 2: man on foreign policy issues, especially on Giba. I think 458 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 2: it's very notable that every time the President and Marco 459 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 2: Rubio are together and reporters ask the President a question 460 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 2: about Cuba, he says a couple of sentences, and then 461 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 2: he tosses the ball to Marco Rubio to talk in 462 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 2: more detail about Cuba. So, yes, he's become very influential, 463 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 2: and more than one might have expected given his tense 464 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 2: relationship with the President before he was named to the cabinet. 465 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 2: I think a lot depends on how the war in 466 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 2: Iran actually turns out. It doesn't seem to me that 467 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:42,520 Speaker 2: it's unfolding in quite the way that the administration anticipated. Obviously, 468 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 2: our military has performed extraordinarily well, but the ability of 469 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 2: Iran to close the straight up Hormuz, it seems like 470 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 2: it's going to be very hard to open that up 471 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 2: and convince shippers that it's safe to go through it. 472 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,960 Speaker 2: If that goes on for any length of time, the 473 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 2: economic consequences, not just for the United States but for 474 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 2: the entire global economy could be really dire and then 475 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 2: you may see public opinion, which is already skeptical in 476 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 2: the United States, already skeptical of this, turned strongly against it. 477 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 1: One of the things you met a comment about that 478 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 1: I think is very perceptive and may also relate to 479 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,239 Speaker 1: the challenge we're facing in Iran. You've said that you 480 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: can't take a kind of decapitation strategy, which in Venezuela 481 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 1: allowed us to go in and seize Maduro and his 482 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: wife and have a decisive shift in the government, but 483 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 1: that if you're trying to apply that to Cuba, that 484 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:47,280 Speaker 1: the strength of the Cuban system, that they would in 485 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: fact be much more resilient and have a much broader 486 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,959 Speaker 1: base of resistance, which may also be part of what 487 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 1: we're encountering now in Iran, that there's in fact was 488 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 1: a deeper network of powerful people than we initially thought 489 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: but described us from the difference as you see it 490 00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 1: between Venezuela and Cuba. 491 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 2: So the Venezuelan government, it seems to me, was a 492 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 2: kind of a coalition of semi autonomous groups in bureaucracies, 493 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 2: but also armed groups, not just the regular military, but 494 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:29,760 Speaker 2: the pro Chavez paramilitaries, the so called collectivos that we 495 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 2: saw riding around on motorbikes with AK forty seven's threatening 496 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 2: opposition demonstrations. Plus you've got narcotics traffickers from Colombia who 497 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 2: are working in Venezuela. And then finally you've got the 498 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 2: Colombian guerrilla army, the Army of National Liberation, which operates 499 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 2: along the border and partly inside of Venezuela. So Maduro's 500 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 2: strength was he was able to sort of balance these 501 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 2: different interest groups and hold them together. It turns out 502 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 2: Rodriguez is pretty good at that as well, probably better 503 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 2: than most people thought. And she has the edited advantage 504 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,719 Speaker 2: that she has the confidence of the oil industry, both 505 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 2: domestic and international, and that's why I think she's proven 506 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:20,799 Speaker 2: to be such an adept leader in Venezuela. But in 507 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 2: Cuba it's a much more institutionalized and hierarchical system. It's 508 00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 2: a classic Marxist Leninist political organization. And if Miguel ds 509 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,560 Speaker 2: Canal the president had a heart attack tomorrow, they'd just 510 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:38,640 Speaker 2: pick a new president. And there isn't someone I don't believe, 511 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 2: like Delcia Rodriguez who would be willing to essentially cooperate 512 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,720 Speaker 2: with the United States, and pretty much anything that we wanted. 513 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 2: The regime is just two institutionalized and the people at 514 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 2: the top are just too committed to do that. But 515 00:34:54,040 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 2: it does mean that it is possible to negotiate deal 516 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:05,439 Speaker 2: with Cuba, and that the current leadership would be able 517 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,839 Speaker 2: to make that deal stick. And so as I look 518 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 2: at the situation, I see a certain analogy to Venezuela 519 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 2: and not in how we get to some kind of 520 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,520 Speaker 2: modus vivendi. I think it's got to be negotiated directly 521 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,600 Speaker 2: with the Cuban government in the Cuban case, but I 522 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,720 Speaker 2: think the formula of focusing on economic issues and putting 523 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,400 Speaker 2: political ones either off to the side or off to 524 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:34,680 Speaker 2: the future, that I think is an analogous situation that 525 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:35,680 Speaker 2: could be successful. 526 00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:40,279 Speaker 1: One last thing of a Cuba. To what extent do 527 00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:44,880 Speaker 1: you think Russia and China can have an influence with 528 00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,400 Speaker 1: the outcome and Cuba? And to what extent do you 529 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: think they share weight of the United States when we 530 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 1: pay attention to Ken Island, ninety miles off our coast, 531 00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,719 Speaker 1: makes them basically not have much leverage. 532 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,640 Speaker 2: Well, I think neither of them is going to step 533 00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 2: in financially and save Cuba. The way Nikiti Kristraft did 534 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 2: in the nineteen sixties because it turned out that bill 535 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:15,320 Speaker 2: was very large. And China has a good relationship with Cuba, 536 00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 2: but it's fundamentally a commercial one more than anything. There 537 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:23,040 Speaker 2: is apparently some intelligence cooperation, although I'm not sure it's 538 00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 2: as extensive as some people have claimed. There's a stronger 539 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:33,840 Speaker 2: military relationship historically, of course, with Russia, but neither Russia 540 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 2: nor China have the capacity or the interest in trying 541 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,719 Speaker 2: to confront the United States militarily in the Caribbean. That 542 00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 2: would be a losing strategy on both parts. So there's 543 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 2: not a lot that they can do right now for 544 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,719 Speaker 2: Cuba other than to try to provide it with enough 545 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:53,799 Speaker 2: assistance to survive the immediate crisis, and I think both 546 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,040 Speaker 2: of them are trying to do that. China has pledged 547 00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 2: them a lot of humanitarian assistants and has been really 548 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 2: instant mental in helping them begin to convert to renewable energy, 549 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 2: particularly solar, of course, because China is one of the 550 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 2: world's main producers of solar panels and batteries, and the 551 00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 2: Russians have been trying to send them oil, but we 552 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:19,480 Speaker 2: have been letting them know that We're not willing to 553 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 2: let them get away with that. Of course, the President 554 00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:27,920 Speaker 2: recently waives sanctions on Russian oil in order to increase 555 00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 2: the world's supply because of the crisis in Iran. But 556 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,560 Speaker 2: just a couple of days ago, the administration issued a 557 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:40,560 Speaker 2: new regulation that exempted Cuba from this waiver, and so 558 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:45,320 Speaker 2: that Cuba is one place that the Russians cannot send 559 00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 2: this oil. So there have been two Russian tankers crossing 560 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,359 Speaker 2: the Atlantic on the way to Cuba with oil, and 561 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 2: we'll have to see what they do. 562 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 1: I have a hunch they will turn around or find 563 00:37:58,840 --> 00:37:59,520 Speaker 1: another port. 564 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 2: I have a hunch they will too. But it is 565 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,880 Speaker 2: a little bit reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis. 566 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,240 Speaker 1: Well, it would be if the Russian who are inclined 567 00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,560 Speaker 1: to try to do that. William Ana, thank you for 568 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,480 Speaker 1: joining me. This has been a great conversation about an 569 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:17,000 Speaker 1: area that is undergoing remarkable change. Our listeners can follow 570 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,359 Speaker 1: the work you're doing at the Quincy Institute for Responsible 571 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:25,480 Speaker 1: state Craft by visiting the website at Quincy i nst 572 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,040 Speaker 1: dot org. And I really appreciate you spending the time 573 00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: helping educators. 574 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:41,800 Speaker 2: Wow, thank you very much. It's been a pleasure, and 575 00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:42,719 Speaker 2: now I'm pleased and. 576 00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,680 Speaker 1: Induce a new segment to news World where I answer 577 00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:49,280 Speaker 1: listeners questions and if you would like, you can send 578 00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:53,320 Speaker 1: me questions at Newt at Gingrich three sixty dot com. 579 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,839 Speaker 1: That's Newt at Gingrich three sixty dot com. I look 580 00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 1: forward to hearing your questions. The first that came in 581 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:05,759 Speaker 1: is from Ames, Iowa, where John asked that he's been 582 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 1: reading that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway 583 00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,359 Speaker 1: for fertilizer and he's wondering how this is going to 584 00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:16,600 Speaker 1: impact both our farmers and the price of food. Frankly, 585 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,160 Speaker 1: I think that you have to recognize about fifty percent 586 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:25,200 Speaker 1: of the nitrogen rich fertilizers on a global basis, fifty 587 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,760 Speaker 1: percent of the world production comes through the strait. However, 588 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,080 Speaker 1: I personally think the strait will be reopened pretty rapidly. 589 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,640 Speaker 1: There will be a spike for a very short time 590 00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:39,279 Speaker 1: and fertilizer prices, but if you're patient, I think it's 591 00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 1: going to come down with remarkable speed once they get 592 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,440 Speaker 1: the straight open, and I'm convinced they're going to get 593 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:50,160 Speaker 1: the straight open. We heard from Christopher from Atlanta, who 594 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,440 Speaker 1: asks I'm an Ober driver in Atlanta. I do a 595 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,680 Speaker 1: lot of drives to and from the airport. Governor Brian 596 00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,440 Speaker 1: Kemp just signed a bill that temporarily suspends the state's 597 00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 1: gas tax for sixty days. But I'm concerned about what 598 00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:06,239 Speaker 1: happens after those sixty days. Rep For those of us 599 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,840 Speaker 1: who make up living driving, what do you think should 600 00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 1: be done to help us? I suspect within sixty days 601 00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,640 Speaker 1: the price of gasoline will come down dramatically, and I 602 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:21,200 Speaker 1: suspect if it has not, they will extend the temporary 603 00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,279 Speaker 1: suspension for an other sixty or ninety days. But I 604 00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,520 Speaker 1: doubt very much if we're going to see a spike 605 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:31,960 Speaker 1: in gasoline that lasts more than sixty days. Annabel from Dallas, 606 00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,680 Speaker 1: Texas asked, I don't understand why Democrats are so against 607 00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:39,200 Speaker 1: the Save Act that would help secure our elections by 608 00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 1: only allowing United States citizens to vote. I have to say, 609 00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:49,360 Speaker 1: it is to me crazy that the Democrats are opposing 610 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 1: the requirement that you prove who you are. We do 611 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,960 Speaker 1: this to get on an airplane, we do this to 612 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,560 Speaker 1: be able to drive a car. The idea that somehow 613 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:02,560 Speaker 1: it's shocking that you have to actually have some identification 614 00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,640 Speaker 1: that proves who you are in order to vote. I 615 00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,960 Speaker 1: think it is a tribute to the degree to which 616 00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,920 Speaker 1: the Democrats want to be able to steal votes. And 617 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 1: I can't understand any other rationale for why they are 618 00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,560 Speaker 1: so deeply determined to not let the Save Act pass. 619 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:21,920 Speaker 1: The Senate may find a way to get it through. 620 00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,680 Speaker 1: Opposition of the Democrats is very deep and very strong 621 00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,359 Speaker 1: and tells you a lot about the nature of the 622 00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,160 Speaker 1: modern Democratic Party. May remind you. I look forward to 623 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,000 Speaker 1: hearing from you, and you can ask a question by 624 00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:39,360 Speaker 1: just emailing me at newt at gingishthree sixty dot com. 625 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:43,400 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, doctor William Leo Grand. Newtsworld 626 00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,520 Speaker 1: is produced by Gingrish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive 627 00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:51,719 Speaker 1: producer is Guardnzi Slow. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The 628 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,640 Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special 629 00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,799 Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingrishtree sixty and if you've 630 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,480 Speaker 1: been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you go to Apple Podcast 631 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,480 Speaker 1: and both rate us with five stars and give us 632 00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,120 Speaker 1: a review so others can learn what it's all about. 633 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,920 Speaker 1: Join me on substack at the English Sweet sixty dot net. 634 00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,560 Speaker 1: I am nuck inglich. This is new tool.