1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: The volume. The Three and Out Podcast with me John 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: Middlecoff is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's no better 3 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: place to make every moment more than with FanDuel, America's 4 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: number one sports book. Very easy to use, safe and secure. 5 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 1: You get your winnings fast. I cannot recommend it enough. 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: Love gambling with FanDuel. If you are a new just 7 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: download the fan Duel Sports Book app to get started. 8 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: Now signed up with promo code Colin so they know 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: we sent you. What is going on everybody? John Middlecoff 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: Three and Out podcasts? How are we doing? Philadelphia Eagles? 11 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: When Philadelphia Phillies lose? This football podcast will dive into 12 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: the Eagles, Jalen Hurts, balin Texans now fighting for the 13 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: number one overall pick a lot of other football stuff, 14 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: Trade deadline, Bradley chub the Rams run out of Amo. 15 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: Dan Snyder really going to sell the team? I don't know. 16 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: I'll be honest. I'm a little leary. We will see 17 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 1: on that one. R I p ray guy, of course stucky. 18 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: We do our picks for the weekend as well as 19 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: Middlecoff mailbag will come out on Sunday at John Middlecoff 20 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 1: is the Instagram at John Middlecoff is the Instagram fire 21 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 1: in those dms, get your question answered here Tuesday's pod 22 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: as well as Sunday's pod, and if you listen through 23 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: Colin's feed, I greatly appreciate it. Make sure you subscribe 24 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,199 Speaker 1: to the Three and Out podcast. And yeah, but before 25 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: we dive into the game, can I tell you about 26 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: my friends at Turtlebox. Do you know what is right 27 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: around the corner Christmas? 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I have a pretty simple philosophy. 53 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 1: On Thursday night football is passed about week two or 54 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: week three. I don't judge the road team like I 55 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: would a college football team because as the season goes 56 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: you can get some weird matchups. And in college football, 57 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: for example, when Alabama when Georgia went Ohio State, when 58 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: Michigan when usc when these teams play bad teams late 59 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: in the season, right they're eight and one, they're playing 60 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: at two win team. We don't just expect them to win, 61 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: we expect them to dominate. And usually the point spread 62 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: is twenty to thirty points. Right in the NFL, that's 63 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: not the case. I mean last week was the biggest 64 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: point spread in Aaron Rodgers's career at eleven and a half, 65 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: and he covered on the road against the Bills Thursday 66 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: Night Football. I throw it all out the window when 67 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: it comes to judgment. Now from a gambling standpoint, you know, 68 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: I didn't touch tonight. But looking at it, it's like, yeah, 69 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: the Texans are home fourteen points, like makes sense. But 70 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: the Eagles. You don't get style points Thursday Night football 71 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: in early November, even if you're seven and zero. Plan 72 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: we'll get into the Texans here in a second, one 73 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the league. You just have 74 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: to win and get out and that's what the Eagles did. Now, 75 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: they ended up winning by twelve points, twenty nine to seventeen, 76 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: but it was tight. I mean, I'll be honest. In 77 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: the first half was watching a little more of the 78 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: World Series would peak up. Then all of a sudden, 79 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: it's fourteen to fourteen. I'm like, no, the Eagles aren't 80 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: gonna lose, as Davis Mills, and then the second half 81 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: they pick them off a J. Brown scores, It's like, yeah, 82 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: the Eagles aren't gonna lose. Of course they're not gonna lose, 83 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: and I am not gonna nitpick the performance. They just 84 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: beat the shit out of the Steelers about four days ago. 85 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: You go on the road, multiple time zones, you win 86 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: the game, you get out of there, you're eight and 87 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: now peace Sea. Here's my main takeaway from Philly, and 88 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: it hit me tonight. I don't remember a quarterback one 89 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: the guy that came into the draft besides like Howie Roseman, 90 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Lurie and Doug Peterson did that, and like Jalen's 91 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: family did that. Many people believe in Jalen as an 92 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: NFL quarterback because I know people around Alabama. I know 93 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: people around Oklahoma, Like, honestly, I don't know people around 94 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: every major Power five program. Those are two programs I 95 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 1: got people that I'm pretty close with. No one swore 96 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: by him in terms of being like a future NFL starter. 97 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: Every college director, every GM that I know. Beside Howie 98 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: was not a fan of Jalen. And then Jalen's rookie 99 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: year when he came in, we all thought it was 100 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: kind of crazy. And then he becomes the full time 101 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: starter of the following year, Like God, the Eagles are 102 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: gonna suck. Somehow, they make the playoffs. Now, granted they 103 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 1: take seven teams, but still made the playoffs. He showed 104 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: he was a lot better than we all thought. But 105 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: it was like, come on, you know you've got a 106 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: really good team. You're gonna build your future around Jalen Hurts. 107 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,559 Speaker 1: I said that all off season and I even picked 108 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: them to win the division. But I was like, I 109 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 1: I don't ever remember a guy going from so questioned 110 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: to like, I'm not saying he's like a star, but 111 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: he's a high end starting quarterback right now, if you 112 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: just watch Jalen Hurts play in twenty twenty two, you go, 113 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: holy shit, this guy is really good. Now. Part of 114 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 1: it is they get him a J. Brown. Obviously they 115 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: got God, it's a really good player, DeVante Smith, Miles Sanders, 116 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: their offensive line. But you just put Jalen in a vacuum. 117 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: He has improved. I would say he has come farther 118 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: in a short period of time as any quarterback as 119 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: I remember in recent history. It was not. I mean, 120 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: Josh Allen came a long way in a short period time. 121 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: He was the seventh overall pick. Jalen was a mid 122 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: second round pick. I mean he's obviously he's a top 123 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: ten quarterback this year. I mean we could argue where 124 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: he goes, but you watch him and go, that guy's 125 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: really good. Now, how good is he gonna be? Big 126 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: playoff games? We'll see, But they're gonna be the number 127 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: one seed, They're gonna get a buy he's gonna win 128 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: two games at home to get to the super Bowl. 129 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: And a couple of things they got going for him. 130 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: One we've talked about this before, The A. J. Brown 131 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: trade is just an al Teimer and the Eagles. When 132 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: Andy Reid took over in like ninety nine or two thousand, 133 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,559 Speaker 1: whatever his first year was to the transition to howe 134 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: they have consistently been a big swing operation. They do 135 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: not fuck around when it comes to opportunities. They have 136 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: no problem making big trades. And this is one on 137 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: a long list that goes, holy shit, this is gonna work, 138 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: and that guy with that quarterback, like it just flows. Now. 139 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: We knew aj was a really good player. We all 140 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: watched him play with Tennessee. But he has taken Jalen 141 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: to a completely different level. And here's the other thing. 142 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: And I saw it early on with the forty nine ers. 143 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: The majority of teams do not have one really good corner. Like, 144 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: if you have one really good corner, you're ahead of 145 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: the pack. I was thinking, and maybe I'm crazy, I 146 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: guess the Jets have a couple of good corners. The 147 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: majority of NFL teams do not feel good about their 148 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: corner combination. Let alone think we got two stud starting 149 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: quarterbacks cornerbacks. The Eagles traded for Slay a couple of 150 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: years ago. He's a stud. Also, you can hear him 151 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: on the volume. I watched his volume YouTube after the 152 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: Steeler game. Darry Slays good Like Darry Slay was just 153 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: breaking down the game. I was very entertained. Volume YouTube. 154 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: Check out Darry Slay. That's just no one told me 155 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: to do that. I swore to God watching it on 156 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: my own was van pressed. James Bradberry, I mean, a 157 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 1: couple of years ago, was viewed as like one of 158 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: the better corners in the league. They have two high 159 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: end starting cornerbacks. Obviously, Slay is like a pro bowler. Bradberry's, 160 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: you know, probably right on the fringe. If you have 161 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: two good starting cornerbacks and the rest of your team 162 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: is really good. To me, if the Eagles coaches do 163 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: not screw this up and Jalen just plays solid, they're 164 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: gonna be a mother. Man. I don't think this Eagle 165 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: team by any means of smoking mirrors. Obviously when you're eight, no, 166 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: but I mean anytime that you don't have like some 167 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: super accomplished quarterback. But the two corners, the pass rush, 168 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: the offensive skill guys, the offensive line, the Birds are 169 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: for real, man. And on the flip side, I'm not 170 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: breaking down the Texans. I don't care they suck. I 171 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: think at this point in time in early November, it's 172 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 1: a two horse race for the number one overall pick, 173 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: and the Texans, like I think it's clear David Spills 174 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: does some things that are good, and you watch him 175 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: sometimes like he sticks. That's usually what a backup quarterback is. 176 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: They drafted him the third round. They didn't invest that much. 177 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: The Texans and the Lions are competing now for the 178 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: number one overall pick, and the only question moving forward 179 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: is who is that going to be? Because like, I 180 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: know who I like. I mean, it's clear Bryce is 181 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: the best player and Will Levis is a very very 182 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: interesting prospect. So I text around my friends that do 183 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: the sec that are scouting directors, and they're all in agreement. 184 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: Bryce Young, there is no dispute in a vacuum, is 185 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: the best quarterback in this class. There is no close second. 186 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: The problem is Bryce Young is like my height. He's 187 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: like five ten five nine and a half and in 188 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: the NFL, Like, I'm sorry, I know, there's been some 189 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: recent guys in the last decade, Russell Wilson, Kyler, Murray. 190 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 1: You would rather have a guy that's six foot four 191 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: or six foot five. That's not Bryce. But the main 192 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: problem with Bryce is not necessarily his height. He's like 193 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy five pounds. He's tiny. He is 194 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 1: a remarkable player, and if you're listening to this on Friday, 195 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: you might watch him play LSU on Saturday night on 196 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: the road. He'll throw three or four touchdowns. He is 197 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: fucking badass. He is very small, and unlike Kyler, who's 198 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: also very small. Kyler is one of the greatest athletes 199 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: the NFL has ever seen. He is one of the 200 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: fastest quarterbacks, if not the fastest quarterback the NFL has 201 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: ever seen. It's hard to get a hand on him. 202 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: That's Bryce is really much more like a Deshaun Watson 203 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. He's a good athlete, but he's much more 204 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: of a scrambled a throw guy. And then Will Levice 205 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: is actually the premium prospect. The size, the strength, the arm, 206 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: the pro style offense, but he plays on a team 207 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: with no NFL players beside his running back. And a 208 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: lot of people chime in with CJ. Stroud. Listen, I'm 209 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: not a CJ. Stroud hater. This is not some personal 210 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: deal here, no personal bias. Everyone I talked to said 211 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:45,839 Speaker 1: that he is probably not going to be a top 212 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: five quarterback. We'll see top five pick. Excuse me, he'll 213 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: be the third quarterback. It's between Bryce and Levis. I'm 214 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 1: not I'm just don't shoot the messenger here. Again, not 215 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 1: a great athlete Ohio state history. Still gonna go probably 216 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: in the top ten, but it's from who I talked to, 217 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: Levis Bryce in some order. Bryce, if he was bigger, 218 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: would be a lock to go number one and Levis. 219 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: You can nitpick the box score all you want against 220 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: Tennessee wasn't good, but he's he's playing with me and 221 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: you a wide receiver. It's ugly and physically. We know 222 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: guys that are six foot four, six ft five, good athletes, 223 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: high character, guys with enormous arms. They usually don't fall 224 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: in the draft. So right now the Texans and Lions 225 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: are basically competing for their pick at the litter between 226 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 1: those two guys. Football season is underway, so now is 227 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's number one 228 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: sports book because right now new customers get a no 229 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars. That's free 230 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: bets back if your first bet doesn't win. Just sign 231 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: up using the promo code Colin. 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Make every moment more this season. 238 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: When FanDuel Official Sportsbook partner of the NFL twenty one 239 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 1: and over in president Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, 240 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. 241 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: Must wager and designated offer market max bet five dollars. 242 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: Restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot Com. 243 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred next step or text 244 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,719 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two Arizona one 245 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven 246 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 1: or visit CCPG dot org slash chat Connecticut one hundred 247 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 1: gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, 248 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia one eight seven seven seven seven 249 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 1: zero stop Louisiana or one eight hundred two seven zero 250 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: seven one one seven for confidential help Michigan one eight 251 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: seven seven eight hope and why or text hope and 252 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: why four six, seven, three six nine, New York, Tennessee 253 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: right line one eight hundred eighty eight nine seven eight 254 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: nine Tennessee one hundred five two forty seven hundred Wyoming, 255 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: visit www dot one hundred, dabler dot net West Virginia, 256 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: and then on the trade deadline, because I think most people, 257 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: most of these teams, especially in twenty twenty two, are 258 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 1: relatively in the same spot. Besides, you know, I'm recording 259 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: this before the Thursday night this part before the Thursday 260 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: night game. Obviously, there are a couple of teams with 261 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: great records, the Bills, the Eagles, it's pretty clear the 262 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: Chiefs are pretty damn good. But I think a lot 263 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 1: of other teams, know, the Ravens, the forty nine ers, 264 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: that you're just right in the mix, right if Jamar 265 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: Chase get healthy, if you're the Bengals, that you'd have 266 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: a chance to win playoff games. And no one is 267 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: a lock to win the Super Bowl every year, right, 268 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: It's like no team is the two thousand seventeen Warriors, 269 00:14:58,320 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: where just like this team's winning it, like the Bill, 270 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: everyone thinks they're the best team in the league. They 271 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: haven't been in the Super Bowl in thirty years. So 272 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: let's we all got to pump the brakes because we 273 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 1: know football is a one and done sport. It's a 274 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: one off and I think you saw a lot of 275 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: teams being very aggressive, I e. The Ravens, I e. 276 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: The Minnesota Vikings, and not everyone's always in the same spot. 277 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: So I think sometimes you always got to figure out. 278 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: The number one thing you have to do as a 279 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: GM as or head coach is evaluate your team correctly 280 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: before you Because listen, I've been in the front office. 281 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: You're constantly evaluating the entire league. Right You're writing up 282 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: every player on every team, You're writing up every future 283 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: free agent. You're scouting staff is focused on every single 284 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 1: draft pick. But the number one thing you have to 285 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: do is worry about yourself. I heard because I was 286 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: talking on my other podcast about when the Christian McCaffrey 287 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: trade happened, and this guy, really, I mean, honestly, one 288 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: of the smartest guys I know works in finance. Stanford 289 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: guy hit me up and because my whole point was, 290 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: like I thought the Niners were this is two weeks ago. 291 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: I don't necessarily feel that way anymore. But you know, 292 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 1: when you get super aggressive because you don't want Christian 293 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: McCaffrey to go to the Rams, I don't think that 294 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: is the same as being super aggressive to get Christian 295 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: McCaffrey because you think he's a great player. And the 296 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: reason the forty nine ers gave up so much draft 297 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: capital was because one they were bidding against someone, but 298 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: it was because of the team they were specifically bidding against. Right, 299 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: do they give a two four if it's the Bills 300 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: or the Chiefs. Maybe not, But because it's the Rams, 301 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: they had no choice. And he basically said in the 302 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: game theory, and any smart person listening to this would 303 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: know that when you make a move because of your competition, 304 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: that impacts one other person. But when you make a 305 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: move to or you know, if you make a move 306 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: to diminish your competition, that has direct influence on one 307 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: one person, one team, whatever. When you make a move 308 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: strictly to improve yourself, that influences every single person, right, 309 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: all your competition. And we'll see how this plays out. 310 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: And ultimately, Christian McCaffrey, if he's healthy, shit, he might 311 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: just be an elite player again, and it doesn't matter. 312 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 1: It was worth outbidding the Rams, and it was worth 313 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 1: adding him to outplay your competition and all these games 314 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 1: moving forward, and he'll help you make a run in 315 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: the playoffs. But not all these teams are the same, right, 316 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: the Packers historically have been very conservative, especially when it 317 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 1: comes to draft picks. They're very hesitant to make I 318 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: don't say I don't want to say rash, but rams 319 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: like decisions. Forty nine Ers like decisions, Raven like decisions. 320 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: Andy Reid like those teams at any moment will put 321 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: their chips in the middle of the table on a 322 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: given season. They do not give a shit. They lean aggressive. 323 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: The Packers like staying in the slow lane, and in 324 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: fairness to them, historically it's been a very very I 325 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: don't know profitable is the way to put it with 326 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 1: a team, but it's led to a lot of winning. 327 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: And when you look at some of the teams that 328 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 1: made trades this week, you know, on the day of 329 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: trades made, we all are going to have a reaction. 330 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,719 Speaker 1: We're all human beings. You don't actually know till years later. Hell, 331 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: even the Trey Lance trade right as of the day, 332 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 1: it's a disaster for the forty nine ers. They gave 333 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: up three picks. Jimmy Garoppolo has really been their quarterback 334 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 1: the last two years, and Trey Lance is now as 335 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: a shattered ankle in the Miami Dolphins, and obviously the 336 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 1: Niners wouldn't have used it on these players, but they've 337 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: acquired Jalen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Priley Chubb, So that 338 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: shows you the type ammunition those picks would have netted 339 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers to use to build around the 340 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: team they had. But it's always easy to play hindsight, 341 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: but that's just a reality. Like ultimately, you make a 342 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: trade based on the information you have, You make a 343 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 1: draft pick based on the information you have, but then 344 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,239 Speaker 1: three or four years later, we can determine whether that 345 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: was a good or bad move. Right as the stock 346 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,719 Speaker 1: market plummets, a lot of people are going to invest 347 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: in specific stocks. Some of those might net you a 348 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 1: lot of money. Some of those might continue to suck 349 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 1: even as times get better in two or three years, 350 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: but no one knows that at the time. You're just 351 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 1: making calculated risks, and that's what I thought a lot 352 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: of the big teams that made trades did. Look at 353 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. I don't blame them for trading Roquan Smith. 354 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 1: He did not want to be there anymore. Now. I 355 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: value middle linebacker more than a lot of people in 356 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: the league because I think when you have an elite 357 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: guy He influences your entire team, the toughness of the team, 358 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 1: the speed of the team, and ultimately how good your 359 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: defense is. Why Because when you have Patrick Willis, Luke Keakley, now, 360 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner forever, they make a shitload of tackles. 361 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: And when you have a guy making tackles over and 362 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: over and over throughout the game, that's a good thing. Like, 363 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: that's the point of defense now. And here's the other thing. 364 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 1: Middle linebackers don't cost what corners and pass rushers costs. 365 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: They actually are pretty cheap. They're kind of like a 366 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: tight end. So when you get Travis Kelsey or George 367 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: Kittle or in theory, Darren Waller when he was on 368 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 1: the field, you're getting him at a discounted price. So 369 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,400 Speaker 1: when I thought about Roquan Smith, I thought, he makes 370 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: a lot of sense. He feels like a raven, he 371 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 1: feels like a Steeler. He doesn't want to be there 372 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,479 Speaker 1: for the Bears. They flip him for a second, then 373 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: the Bears basically outbid. It looks like the Packers for 374 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: Chase Claypool. And there's two ways to look at it. 375 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: At first, my reaction was, I think it's pretty stupid. 376 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 1: You're gonna give up a second round pick for a 377 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: guy the Steelers, which are basically the cream of the 378 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 1: crop when it comes to evaluating and figuring out who 379 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 1: can play at wide receiver, a guy they don't want, 380 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,159 Speaker 1: who is cheap, who clearly drives them nuts. Sometimes I 381 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: think that's a bold move, and then I also thought, well, 382 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: you have Justin Fields on his rookie deal. The clock 383 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: is going and this guy is a very talented player. 384 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 1: You're not giving up a first where you can really 385 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: get burned. You're not going to get a player who's 386 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: more talented than this in the second round. But the 387 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: moment you get him, his clock is now going. Right. 388 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: He's in year whatever two, So if he is good 389 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: for you next year, you'd have to pay him, but 390 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 1: you'd gladly pay him if he's worth it. Let's get 391 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 1: this guy surrounded. Now here's the problem with the Bears. 392 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: They basically have three guys Nikil Harry, Dante Pettis, and 393 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 1: Chase Claypool who other teams drafted relatively high and then 394 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 1: immediately gave up on. So that's who you're building around 395 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 1: this guy. Now, Chase is the best of the bunch, 396 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: But are you equipped to handle it now? I think 397 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: Ryan Poles might tell you in a moment of truth. 398 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: I didn't watch his press conference, but if he's being honest, 399 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: I need to evaluate this quarterback. I want to evaluate 400 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: him the rest of the year, and obviously I want 401 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: to evaluate him next year. We plan on adding more 402 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: of this offseason with our caps base with our draft picks, 403 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 1: but we thought we had a good value. It made 404 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,439 Speaker 1: some sense, so we did it, and I'd go I 405 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: get it, because ultimately this team is gonna go or 406 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: fail with this guy Justin Fields. If Justin Fields sucks, 407 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 1: they're gonna suck for a while. If Justin Fields plays 408 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 1: like he is right now, they're gonna be semi competitive. 409 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: If he can take another step and their passing game 410 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: can take an other step, they could be compete to 411 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 1: be a wild card team. So they're gonna go as 412 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 1: far as the quarterback's taking them. So I understand the 413 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 1: move the Minnesota Lions trade. The Lions suck. I mean 414 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: they are headed right now for the first overall pick, 415 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: and because the Rams who might turn out, I mean 416 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: if the Rams lose this week, I mean they're headed 417 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: for a six win season, there's a chance that Lions 418 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 1: have the number one overall pick, and then like the 419 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 1: tenth pick in the draft, and all of a sudden, 420 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: you're looking at a team that within a couple of 421 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,440 Speaker 1: years is going to be able to accumulate a lot 422 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,440 Speaker 1: of talent. So when I look at the Lions, I go, 423 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 1: when the Steelers trade Chase Claypool, I give Tomlin in 424 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,120 Speaker 1: the organization to benefit of the doubt. I go, yeah, 425 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: this kid must be a pain to deal with. They're 426 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: giving up on them this quick, and it's it's not 427 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 1: well they got George Pick. It's now if they like 428 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: Chase Claypool, they would not have traded them. And then 429 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: I look at Minnesota, who clearly is a player too. 430 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: Right there for competing for the NFC, it's wide open, 431 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 1: assuming Kirk Cousins doesn't shit the bed, which you never 432 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 1: can because in big games he doesn't always play as well. 433 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: And I can't give the Lions the benefit of the 434 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 1: doubt because, like I said, with linebackers, tight ends don't 435 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: cost you very much. Now, they drafted a tight end 436 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: they're receiving corps looks pretty good when healthy. They have 437 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: Jamison Williams, who who knows if he maybe redshirts this year, 438 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: but he's gonna be on the team. Maybe TJ was 439 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: in their running team. They got good running backs. Maybe 440 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: he was going to be the odd man out, so 441 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: you get some value. But to me, if he's good 442 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,400 Speaker 1: for Minnesota, which I imagine he's gonna be, typically Detroit 443 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: when they've traded guys, talented players, they've looked bad. So 444 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: if they win this one, it'll be the first one 445 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 1: they've won for a while. To me, if I'm Minnesota 446 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 1: getting TJ and a fourth for a second and a 447 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,640 Speaker 1: third a guy that I'll gladly extend, especially like Feeland's 448 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: getting up there in age, put him with Jefferson and 449 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook obviously a tight end for Kirk Cousins, makes 450 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 1: a lot of sense. Feels like a pretty easy trade, 451 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: one trade that I go back on forth on trem 452 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,400 Speaker 1: Balky doesn't give a shit about character, has never cared. Now, 453 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 1: I gamble, so I'm not bagging on Calvin Ridley's character 454 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 1: when it comes to gambling on a game, though it's 455 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: very very well established. When you work in the NFL, 456 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: especially as a coach, player, or executive, gambling is not 457 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,120 Speaker 1: tolerated now it's weird because it's becomes so much more 458 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: universal these last couple of years as the NFL's balls 459 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:32,199 Speaker 1: deep with obviously FanDuel all the companies. Can't say the 460 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: other companies on this podcast because Vandel's a loyal sponsor, 461 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 1: but like the players know, you cannot gamble on the games. 462 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 1: And then he takes a mental health break that we 463 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 1: learned that he was caught up with some bad people 464 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 1: getting threatened. Weird spot, but he was also gambling on 465 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 1: the games and on the side gets in trouble. Calvin 466 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,919 Speaker 1: Ridley was a really good player before that happened. And 467 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 1: remember last year before he got suspended, the Eagles were 468 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 1: willing to trade a first round pick to get Calvin Ridley. 469 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 1: So teams value the guy as a player. But the 470 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: Jags like, where is this trade? Who else are you 471 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:09,120 Speaker 1: bidden against in this situation? And I just like the Lions, 472 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 1: it's hard for me to give the benefit of the 473 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: doubt to the Jacks, just like the Lions trade and TJ. Hockinson, 474 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 1: if the Ravens had traded for Calvin Ridley or the 475 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: Eagles or the Rams, I'd go, yeah, that's probably gonna 476 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 1: work out. But when the Lions and the Jags do something. 477 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: I say this all the time. Brandon Staley always loved 478 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: using the word process. You can only Nick Saban gets 479 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,880 Speaker 1: to use the word process. Why because his results make 480 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 1: us curious about what the hell is he doing to 481 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: dominate Jeff Bezos Warren Buffett When they talk about their process, 482 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: we want to hear about it. Why because the end 483 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 1: result of whatever they're doing works. Whatever the Jags and 484 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: the Lions have been doing year after year after year 485 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: hasn't worked, so I can't give them the benefit of 486 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 1: the doubt. And here's the thing. When the forty nine 487 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 1: ers really started to fall apart, it was Bulky just 488 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 1: trying to outthink the room at the time. He was 489 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 1: always drafting guys that had torn acls, guys that were 490 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 1: gonna be top twenty picks that he'd get in the 491 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 1: second and third round because they tore their acl either 492 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 1: during the season or in the offseason leading up to 493 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,640 Speaker 1: the draft. Every single one of those guys failed. They 494 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 1: all blew up in his face. And it's just like 495 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 1: to me, if I'm the j if I'm the Falcons, 496 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: I could just unload the guy I think they it 497 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 1: has a chance if he plays next year to be 498 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 1: a conditional second. Like obviously the Falcons weren't bringing this 499 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 1: guy back, especially with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. But 500 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: I just it's hard for me to give that a 501 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: thumbs up to the Lions and the one that's pretty 502 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 1: clear having watched him play, that has a chance to 503 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: be the best trade of this time. I put ro 504 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,679 Speaker 1: Quan right behind it because I think Roquan is going 505 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 1: to fit in perfect if Christian McCaffrey is healthy. I 506 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 1: had kind of forgotten how good the kid was kid. 507 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: I mean, he's twenty six years old, which when I 508 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 1: say kid, I thought he was thirty because he's been 509 00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 1: the league forever. It's like now they just got a 510 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,440 Speaker 1: thty year old running back twenty six years old. Then 511 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 1: you watch him in that game, like it's a no 512 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: brainer for a second and third fourth round pick if 513 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: he's gonna be like that and be involved with and 514 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 1: have a chance to either catch run. I know he's 515 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 1: not gonna throw for touchdowns every game, but he's a 516 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,719 Speaker 1: threat every single game to get you multiple touchdowns, just 517 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: like Deebo Samuelus for the forty nine ers, And when 518 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: you get both those guys on the field at the 519 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: same time, with an offensive coach who likes to get 520 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: the ball to his guys behind the line of scrimmage, 521 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 1: it's gonna be pretty good. And honestly, watching that game 522 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 1: made sense why it was worth for them to mainly 523 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 1: outbid their competition but ultimately get the guy on their team. 524 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 1: The big story I guess of the last like forty 525 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: eight hours of the Washington football team, the Commanders. He 526 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,160 Speaker 1: went Dan Snyder got Bank of America to start kind 527 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: of fishing around, and it's pretty clear that like this team, 528 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: if he actually puts it on the open market, would 529 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: get six seven billion dollars right the Denver Broncos just 530 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,640 Speaker 1: went from four point six six To me, this thing's 531 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 1: going for six or seven the market, the division, the 532 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: upside as high as the sun. To me, though, I 533 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 1: struggle with this one, Like I'll believe it when I 534 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,120 Speaker 1: see it. I'm not saying he's not interested, but it's 535 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 1: one of those like, does this get everyone off his 536 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,360 Speaker 1: back a little bit? If he just puts it out 537 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: there that he's willing to sell the team, Like when 538 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: he actually sells the team, then I'll believe it. But 539 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: until then, I feel like this is all like Dan 540 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 1: Snyder's moves to keep people off his back, to keep 541 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: dodging stuff. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong, because 542 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 1: I think the NFL would love look look at their 543 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 1: last two owners, Dave Tepper, who like him and Steve 544 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 1: Cohen were really the characters that Axel rod in Billions 545 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 1: was developed after the Walton family, who just bought the Broncos, 546 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 1: who's obviously one of the richest families in the world. 547 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 1: And who do you think they're gonna want to buy? 548 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: The Washington Commanders Jeff Bezos. So within the last three purchases, 549 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 1: they'll have added Walmart, Amazon, and an all time great 550 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,479 Speaker 1: stock finance guy. And I always think about this, like, 551 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 1: if you're someone in the last year, let's say in 552 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, you bought a house. Let's say you 553 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 1: bought it for two million dollars. There are probably people 554 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: in your neighborhood if you bought a house for two 555 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 1: million dollars, that bought a similar home in a similar 556 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: right down the street from you thirty forty years ago 557 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: for two to three hundred grand. Yet those people are 558 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: the same people that are going to tell you when 559 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: you're gonna want to do something to your front yard, 560 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: cut down a tree that that's not allowed. I see 561 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: sometimes with my mother, she's part of the HOA committee 562 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,960 Speaker 1: where she lives. Now, she's made a lot of improvements. 563 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 1: Or house is really nice, but she bought it a 564 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 1: long time ago, late seventies, early eighties. I think, and 565 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 1: I've always thought about the people that come in. You 566 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 1: should send flowers to your neighbors that pay premiums for 567 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: houses around you, for increasing your home's value. So I 568 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 1: understand if they want to screw it up, but if 569 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: they want to do their own improvements these let them be. 570 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 1: They just made you a ship ton of money. Tip 571 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 1: your hat. But I understand in those people's situation it's 572 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: hard to like be talked down to by other people 573 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: in their neighborhood. Now, was Zillo, I know exactly how 574 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: much you paid for your house. I know that I 575 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: just made you a lot of money. And I think 576 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 1: about it with Bezos, with the Waltons, with Tepper, how 577 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: do they sit in these owners meetings? Assuming Dan Teider, 578 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: you know, sells and like and listen. I understand a 579 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 1: Mike Brown, a John Mara, a Mark Davis, These people 580 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 1: have been the Rooneys have been stalwarts of the NFL forever. 581 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 1: But when you buy the team in the hundreds of millions, 582 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: or maybe ninety million, eighty million, fifty million, two hundred million, 583 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: how are like, how do I view myself as equal 584 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 1: to you? When I just pay five billion for the 585 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 1: team and I go without me, or you know, there's 586 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 1: five or six other people that are possible to be me, 587 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 1: you wouldn't be near is worth what you are because 588 00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 1: of the value that I'm bringing to the league just 589 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: by purchasing this team, showing what the value of your 590 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,959 Speaker 1: team is, even if it's in a smaller market, worthless, whatever. 591 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 1: Every time these teams are purchased, every single team in 592 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 1: the league goes up dramatically, whether you're the Dallas Cowboys 593 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 1: or the Cincinnati Bengals. So I'm gonna be fascinated to 594 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:28,480 Speaker 1: watch moving forward how the NFL because when they're selling 595 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 1: these teams, there's a small fucking list of people that 596 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,200 Speaker 1: can afford it. The interactions with the owners for a 597 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: long period of time, like it was Al Davis, it 598 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: was Jerry Jones, it was the Rooney's, it was the Mars. 599 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: It was ready to Bartelow. It was in the Spanos. 600 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 1: It was all kind of the crew that came in 601 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 1: similar times, you know, give or take ten twenty years. 602 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 1: But if you spent fifty million and I spent one 603 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five million, Like there's a big difference 604 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 1: between you spent two hundred and fifty million and I 605 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 1: just spent seven billion. Like we ate the same dog. 606 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: So that's something that just fastened to me, and I'm 607 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: interested to watch how that plays out. I'm gonna end 608 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: on this. People think I hate the Raiders. I really don't. 609 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: I appreciate their history. They always spend a lot of 610 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 1: time around. It felt very collegiate. I say that all 611 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 1: the time. It felt very very collegiate. The Niners have 612 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 1: that too, Like you go to their practices, the Niners 613 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 1: and the Raiders, it's like, shit, there's Howie Long right, 614 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: there is you know, he passed away when I was 615 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,600 Speaker 1: a part of it. But there's Kenny the Snake Stabler. 616 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: There's Ronnie Lott, There's Charles there's Charles Haley. That there's 617 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 1: Jerry Rice. It's it's there's Tim Brown. It's it's cool. 618 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: It's very very cool. Actually, and Ray Guy just died, 619 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 1: who recently got in the Hall of Fame, who's widely 620 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,200 Speaker 1: considered one of the best, if not the best punters 621 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 1: of all time, and one of the best specialists ever. 622 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: Pretty nuts that Ray Guy was a first round pick. 623 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: You know, you think about Al Davis, who just I 624 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: think he spoke. You know, now they tape it all. 625 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: You know, back in the day, right the presenter used 626 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 1: to talk. Sometimes they go forever. I think Al Davis 627 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 1: set a record in the NFL for presenting the most 628 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 1: Hall of Famers. I think it's like eight or nine 629 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 1: because he was unique. Right, he was the owner and 630 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 1: he was the general manager. So if you were on 631 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: his team, he literally picked you or signed you. And 632 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 1: he drafted Ray Guy, a punter twenty third overall in 633 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three. Can you imagine if you drafted a 634 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: punter in the top thirty two picks in twenty twenty 635 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,479 Speaker 1: two what people would do or a kicker. And he 636 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: obviously took Sea Bass, you know, thirty years later, but 637 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 1: imagine like, and this is where when drafts happen. You 638 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,280 Speaker 1: never know even if the guy was the best punter. 639 00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 1: To me, Justin Tucker would be worth it. But you 640 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 1: would never know at the time, and you would get 641 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,040 Speaker 1: destroyed because what if you miss Remember a couple of 642 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 1: years ago, probably five or six now, when Jason Ltte, 643 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 1: who's a pretty damn good drafter, took the Aguayo Kid, 644 00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,479 Speaker 1: the kicker from Florida St. Eight and he was basically 645 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 1: a bust by training camp. Remember, he couldn't hit a kick, 646 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,320 Speaker 1: and it was just one of the great unravelings we've 647 00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 1: ever seen. And I actually was in the car today, 648 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 1: I had to run some errands and I was listening 649 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,879 Speaker 1: to I was slipping around channels and the Mad Dog 650 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 1: Radio and Earlia Corsi, the famous former general manager of 651 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 1: the New York Giants and longtime NFL executive, was being interviewed. 652 00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: He was calling in him a mad Dog Chris Rooster Buddies. 653 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 1: He actually had a really good point I'd never thought 654 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 1: of as a scout. He said that, you know, punters, 655 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 1: for the most part, are pretty bust proof. They might 656 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: not be as good as you think, but they're gonna be. 657 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 1: If the guy's an NFL punter in college, he's gonna 658 00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: be an NFL punter once he gets the league. Now, 659 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: how good he is is going to depend on how hard, 660 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 1: he works, he can improve, but like what you see 661 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,799 Speaker 1: is somewhat what you get. Because he was in even 662 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 1: back and Ray Guy was coming out, was everyone knew 663 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 1: Ray Guy was gonna be really good, the greatest punter 664 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,919 Speaker 1: of all time. No, he's like kickers. He's like Joe 665 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 1: Paterno told me one time. Kickers are a lot like 666 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 1: golfers and go at any moment mentally you could lose it. 667 00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 1: You could just start. I played golf on Wednesday afternoon. 668 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 1: I was humming, had three birdies, and maybe it was 669 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: just because I was tired by like whole sixteen. I 670 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: got the shanks. I got the shanks. I shanked a wedge, 671 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 1: said I shanked a four iron, I shanked a six iron. 672 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,760 Speaker 1: I had no clue what was going on. That's golf. 673 00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,279 Speaker 1: Kicking is the same thing. At any moment mentally, you 674 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 1: can just lose it. He's like Drafting kickers is way 675 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 1: more difficult than drafting punters. Now we could argue how 676 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,800 Speaker 1: valuable a punter is in modern day football. It was 677 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: clearly much more valuable seventies at lower scoring games. I 678 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 1: know we're having a lower scoring season, but in games 679 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 1: where you're running the ball at ball position defense, that 680 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 1: style of football, and Ray Guy died, I think one 681 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,359 Speaker 1: of the more underrated draft picks that we just never 682 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 1: talked a punter twenty third overall. And one point Ernie 683 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,359 Speaker 1: made on this interview was like, well, the Raiders were 684 00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 1: really really good at the time. That was the John 685 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 1: Madden Raiders. They went to like seven straight AFC championship games, 686 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,080 Speaker 1: they won a Super Bowl, so they could afford to 687 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,880 Speaker 1: make a bold pick like that. But there's a reason 688 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 1: that older people they got to see Al Davis in 689 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:14,120 Speaker 1: his heyday, spoke about such reverence of the guy. His vision, 690 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,920 Speaker 1: his vision for the sport, for the game, for his 691 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,080 Speaker 1: team was really ahead of the time. And that's an 692 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:25,319 Speaker 1: all time draft pick. And ri ip Ray Guy and 693 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,600 Speaker 1: last been on least And I've thought a lot about 694 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 1: because what the Dolphins did was very bold, right, they 695 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 1: traded the forty nine ers pick, which is a first rounder, 696 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,040 Speaker 1: and the forty nine ers is not like they're seven 697 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,120 Speaker 1: and one, I mean they're four and four though it's 698 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 1: pretty clear they'll probably be a ten or eleven win team. 699 00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 1: But still like having a pick in the twenties when 700 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,279 Speaker 1: you like, that's a big deal just to give up 701 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 1: for a pass rusher, and I've watched Bradley Chubb loosely. 702 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,759 Speaker 1: I haven't like studied him like a top guy, and 703 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people that I text with said he 704 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 1: was like they wouldn't put him on the high end. 705 00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,280 Speaker 1: He's a really good player, and the way the Dolphins 706 00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 1: paid him after trading for him reflects that. Right. He 707 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,719 Speaker 1: got a little more than Max Crosby, even though I 708 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,200 Speaker 1: think Max Crosby I haven't watched the Raiders much lately. 709 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,440 Speaker 1: I would take Max Crosby over Bradley Chubb. But you know, 710 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,880 Speaker 1: we could argue that and if a guy like Max 711 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 1: Crosby or Bradley Chubb hit the open market, which they 712 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,439 Speaker 1: never do, a guy of that talent at twenty six, 713 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,560 Speaker 1: twenty seven years old, in the peak of their powers 714 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 1: at that position left tackles, pass rushers, and obviously quarterbacks. 715 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 1: You could argue top wide receivers never hit, never hit 716 00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 1: the open market in their prime, because if they did, 717 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,960 Speaker 1: if they are let's just pick a number, sixty million 718 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,919 Speaker 1: dollars guaranteed guy, they'd end up getting eighty five because 719 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,399 Speaker 1: you have a bidding process. I last year, Christian Kirk, 720 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,800 Speaker 1: I'm not comparing him with those guys. But my point 721 00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,880 Speaker 1: is when you hit the open market, you got guys 722 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,319 Speaker 1: bidding on you and your mark and your number goes up. 723 00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,280 Speaker 1: So if you're the Miami Dolphins, you need to improve 724 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,279 Speaker 1: your defense. If Bradley Chubb was a free agent, you 725 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:02,120 Speaker 1: would be heavily involved signing him, and ultimately the number 726 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 1: which I saw that they signed him for, you know, 727 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: one hundred and ten million dollars sixty plus guaranteed, would 728 00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,960 Speaker 1: actually be you'd have to increase that by like twenty 729 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: to twenty five percent based on basically the inflation of 730 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 1: free agency, so which they would really want that guy, 731 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 1: and they would ultimately try to sign him, and they 732 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,560 Speaker 1: probably would right, no state income tax, Miami easy place 733 00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:25,319 Speaker 1: to get a guy to come play. They basically just 734 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,200 Speaker 1: traded that one for the right to make sure you 735 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,280 Speaker 1: got him right, which is a high price to pay. 736 00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 1: But if you're them and you go, well, the forty 737 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,359 Speaker 1: nine ers who just won with Christian McCaffrey, let's just 738 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,400 Speaker 1: say that they go ten and seven or at eleven 739 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 1: and six, they win the division. What we saw him 740 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 1: last year. They want a couple of playoff games. Let's 741 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 1: just say they win one playoff game because it's a 742 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,560 Speaker 1: home playoff game, and all of a sudden that pick 743 00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,840 Speaker 1: is twenty six. Well, more than likely we're not going 744 00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,080 Speaker 1: to get a player. Statistics show, you know, it's like 745 00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,479 Speaker 1: at that point in time, thirty to thirty five percent, 746 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,480 Speaker 1: you're gonna an elite starting player, you know, in the 747 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,320 Speaker 1: late twenties, and the chances that he's a good player 748 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:09,200 Speaker 1: like Bradley Chubb is you know, very very low. So 749 00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,319 Speaker 1: if you're them, your owner clearly wants to win. You're 750 00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,240 Speaker 1: pretty competitive. Though, I think we have to all agree 751 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:19,040 Speaker 1: there is a clear tier. Right there's the Bills, the Chiefs, 752 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,960 Speaker 1: let's say, ro Quan and the Ravens are right behind him, 753 00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 1: like I'm sorry until Tuah does, Like is anybody, I'm 754 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:32,239 Speaker 1: a gambler and under no circumstances because Miami's not gonna 755 00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:33,960 Speaker 1: win the division. So if you're not gonna win the division, 756 00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,719 Speaker 1: that means you're gonna play on the road in the playoffs. There. 757 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,840 Speaker 1: I can't see them playing a team I guess unless 758 00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,680 Speaker 1: they play the Titans that I would gamble on the 759 00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:46,960 Speaker 1: Dolphins to win with Twa Tonga Vloa as their starting quarterback, 760 00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,360 Speaker 1: So more than likely they are not gonna win a 761 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:54,399 Speaker 1: playoff game, but you add Bradley, Chubby, maybe waddle Hill, 762 00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 1: they just go nuts to a plays the game of 763 00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 1: their life. If the Dolphins go to the second round 764 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 1: of the play playoffs, that trade is worth it. You 765 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,520 Speaker 1: could argue if they make the playoffs, it's worth it, 766 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,239 Speaker 1: though they've won nineteen games the last two years. But 767 00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:12,040 Speaker 1: I understand it. To me. You look at the Broncos, like, 768 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,040 Speaker 1: did Denver do this trade because they were never going 769 00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 1: to pay this guy now their general manager didn't draft them. 770 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,319 Speaker 1: But usually when you have good pass rushers, you don't 771 00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,440 Speaker 1: like letting them walk. Russell's number takes a lot on 772 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:28,080 Speaker 1: their cap. They don't have a pick because they don't 773 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 1: have several years of picks right because they traded for 774 00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,040 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. So this is all a trickle down effect 775 00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,440 Speaker 1: of making the trade for a quarterback who is no 776 00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,400 Speaker 1: longer an elite quarterback. And these are the ramifications of 777 00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,520 Speaker 1: the decisions that you make. It's kind of like when 778 00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 1: we nitpick the Packers, like, well, when your quarterback makes 779 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,120 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty million dollars, you know, you know 780 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,280 Speaker 1: guaranteed fifty million dollars a year, you know you're gonna 781 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 1: be missing some key positions because you're not able to 782 00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,120 Speaker 1: pay for him, and you've got to hope you draft 783 00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,879 Speaker 1: players that fill the spots. And sometimes it's easier said 784 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,200 Speaker 1: than done because we all feel that, oh, we got 785 00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,200 Speaker 1: these three team needs, right, a wide receiver, a linebacker, 786 00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,839 Speaker 1: and a safety. We got seven draft picks, let's go 787 00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,400 Speaker 1: fill them. And then you draft, and then by the 788 00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,440 Speaker 1: time the season comes, you're like, well, this safety kind 789 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,440 Speaker 1: of sucks and this wide receiver's got a while to go. 790 00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,640 Speaker 1: It's hard, it's the NFL. So I understand what the 791 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,359 Speaker 1: Dolphins did a little bit of an overpay, but you're 792 00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 1: basically overpaying for the right to buy the player who 793 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 1: would have been a free agent anytime a guy hits 794 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,279 Speaker 1: free agency or no lock to do. And I think 795 00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,880 Speaker 1: the Broncos are a good example of, you know, a 796 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,319 Speaker 1: team that made a bold trade and not in a 797 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,839 Speaker 1: great position, and now they got to think long term 798 00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,279 Speaker 1: because of what they gave up for the quarterback. So 799 00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,600 Speaker 1: that was a little bit of a wow trade. But 800 00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,160 Speaker 1: you know, I understand both sides well. When I finished 801 00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,640 Speaker 1: recording on Monday night, a lot of the trade deadline 802 00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,600 Speaker 1: action did not happen, and we'll dive into that here 803 00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,319 Speaker 1: in a second. I think the last thing that the 804 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,000 Speaker 1: big thing that we saw was Roquan Smith. But then 805 00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:06,920 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff happened on Tuesday, and I honestly 806 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:08,920 Speaker 1: thought one of the biggest stories of Tuesday was a 807 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,600 Speaker 1: trade that didn't happen. And I think for the first 808 00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,839 Speaker 1: time of this era, with Sean mcvagh and less Need 809 00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:19,879 Speaker 1: and their company, you know motto, fuck them picks, they 810 00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,440 Speaker 1: finally ran out of picks, and they ran out of resources. 811 00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,320 Speaker 1: And every team in the NFL has the same amount 812 00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,640 Speaker 1: of resources, right, you just get to choose how you 813 00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,400 Speaker 1: want to allocate it, just like every team in the 814 00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,360 Speaker 1: league has the same amount of money. Every team in 815 00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:37,080 Speaker 1: the NFL gets a revenue share from the media rights 816 00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,520 Speaker 1: steals that pays for their players. So unlike Baseball, where 817 00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,600 Speaker 1: the A's and the Rays and some of these teams 818 00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 1: cannot financially be viable with the Dodgers, the Giants, the Yankees, 819 00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,080 Speaker 1: the Cardinals or whatever, that is not the case in 820 00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 1: the NFL. If Dean Spanos or Mike Brown want to 821 00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,400 Speaker 1: sign a player to the same amount of money as 822 00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,520 Speaker 1: Jerry Jones or John Mara or Jeffrey le they can, 823 00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,840 Speaker 1: and I think it's what makes for great parody in 824 00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:05,200 Speaker 1: the league, to really run circles around the other major 825 00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:09,279 Speaker 1: sports in the NFL. But the Rams, and I've supported this, like, 826 00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,560 Speaker 1: they've been very aggressive with their picks. They've been consistently 827 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:16,160 Speaker 1: winning with this philosophy, and it's they're just Super Bowl champions. 828 00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,120 Speaker 1: But this year they're clearly not as good. And they've 829 00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,239 Speaker 1: made two bold moves. One they got outbid by their 830 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,520 Speaker 1: division rival and they did not land Christian McCaffrey. And 831 00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,440 Speaker 1: as we talked about, I think earlier this week, they 832 00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,560 Speaker 1: don't have a running game. They're running back suck. I 833 00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:34,360 Speaker 1: like Ronny Rivers, I'm a frozen State guy. He should 834 00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:35,680 Speaker 1: not be a starting running back in the NFL, and 835 00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,400 Speaker 1: he's a starting running back. And then this week they 836 00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:42,400 Speaker 1: got denied on Brian Burns. I don't know star pass rusher. 837 00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,200 Speaker 1: I would go as far, but a really really good player, 838 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:49,160 Speaker 1: young player. You could argue in ascending player bold to 839 00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,359 Speaker 1: have two first round picks, yes, but anytime you can 840 00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,600 Speaker 1: get a top notch pass rusher, I think you have 841 00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,319 Speaker 1: to entertain it. But the Carolina Panther said no, And 842 00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,160 Speaker 1: I think most people think that they said no because 843 00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,600 Speaker 1: they wanted to keep a great player. I think the 844 00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:07,160 Speaker 1: reason they said no is because the assets you're giving me, 845 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,520 Speaker 1: you're giving me a first round pick in three years. 846 00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,719 Speaker 1: The NFL does not value that as a first round 847 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,239 Speaker 1: pick on the day of the trade. That is a 848 00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,719 Speaker 1: devalued asset. Like if you offer me a second round 849 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,760 Speaker 1: pick in twenty twenty five right now for a player. 850 00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:24,759 Speaker 1: Let's just say the trade deadline was next week and 851 00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:26,880 Speaker 1: you trade. I trade you a good player for a 852 00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,440 Speaker 1: second round pick. But it is not this draft. It's 853 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,120 Speaker 1: on the following year's draft. It's in three drafts. I 854 00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,600 Speaker 1: don't value that as a second round player. No different 855 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,720 Speaker 1: than if I give you a million dollars right now, 856 00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,080 Speaker 1: or I give you a million dollars in three years. 857 00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,200 Speaker 1: It's not worth the same. Have you ever taken a 858 00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,560 Speaker 1: business class pass high school? You know it's time value money. 859 00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,840 Speaker 1: Money now is worth more now than money in the future. 860 00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,879 Speaker 1: I've always used the example of Bobby Bania. Turns out 861 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:55,080 Speaker 1: I was wrong. I always thought Bobby Bania turned down 862 00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,680 Speaker 1: thirty million dollars in the early two thousands to get 863 00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:01,240 Speaker 1: thirty million dollars later, he actually turned down six million 864 00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,200 Speaker 1: dollars because the will ponds were balls deep with the 865 00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,560 Speaker 1: madeoffs and thought the madeoffs were gonna make them so 866 00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,200 Speaker 1: much money that it wouldn't phase them to take that 867 00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,759 Speaker 1: six million dollars, defer it plus eight percent interest, and 868 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,400 Speaker 1: pay up. So instead of taking six million dollars, Bobby 869 00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,320 Speaker 1: Mania is going to make over thirty million dollars. What 870 00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,600 Speaker 1: are the great business decisions of all time? But it 871 00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:24,359 Speaker 1: usually works in reverse, right, And I think the way 872 00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:29,279 Speaker 1: the Rams, they just finally ran out of capital, you know, 873 00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,520 Speaker 1: and forever they've always had more capital. They were willing 874 00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,480 Speaker 1: to give two ones in a two. They were willing 875 00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:36,799 Speaker 1: to give two ones, and Jared Goffer, Matt Stafford, they 876 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,120 Speaker 1: were consistently willing to do things that other teams just 877 00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:43,320 Speaker 1: hesitated on. And they were no longer in a position. 878 00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,640 Speaker 1: Not that they didn't have the same mindset, because they did. 879 00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:48,440 Speaker 1: They were willing to make They were willing to trade 880 00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,320 Speaker 1: more than the forty nine ers for Christian McCaffrey, but 881 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,640 Speaker 1: they didn't have the AMMO in this year's upcoming draft, 882 00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:57,640 Speaker 1: and most NFL gms or coaches, you get fired at 883 00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,560 Speaker 1: any moment so two drafts away, let alone three, like, 884 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,200 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it does not have the value to me. 885 00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:07,120 Speaker 1: So I think the Rams, like their mindset clearly hasn't changed. 886 00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,280 Speaker 1: There's been a lot of talk that like Sean McVay 887 00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:12,959 Speaker 1: will retire when his core group retires. Maybe, so who knows. 888 00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:14,800 Speaker 1: I mean, he's super rich now, he's got a pretty 889 00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:18,680 Speaker 1: good gig the NFL, like Matt Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, and 890 00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,120 Speaker 1: Cooper Cup Like are they still elite players in three years? 891 00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:24,640 Speaker 1: Let alone like five? So who knows what their situation. 892 00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:28,800 Speaker 1: So being aggressive if you're less need keeps Sean McVay around. 893 00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,240 Speaker 1: I get it, but I think this was a pretty 894 00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:34,160 Speaker 1: black and white decision from the Carolina Panthers. If you 895 00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,239 Speaker 1: had your first round pick this year, I think the 896 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,560 Speaker 1: deal gets done. You're gonna give me two ones for 897 00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:41,440 Speaker 1: the guy. But the second first round pick wouldn't be 898 00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,600 Speaker 1: for three drafts. I can't value that thing like a 899 00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,319 Speaker 1: first round pick. This is not the NBA where they're like, oh, 900 00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,359 Speaker 1: i'll give you a first round pick in twenty twenty. 901 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:53,240 Speaker 1: I don't give a shit. Right, Look at the Miami Dolphins. 902 00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,480 Speaker 1: They got those three first round picks from Trey Lance. Right, 903 00:46:57,040 --> 00:47:00,200 Speaker 1: they basically flipped them all within eighteen months, and they 904 00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,479 Speaker 1: acquire Jalen Waddle, they acquired Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. 905 00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,040 Speaker 1: I mean they acquired Tyreek Hill in Bradley Chubb, but 906 00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,200 Speaker 1: those two extra first round picks in less than six months. 907 00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:13,839 Speaker 1: So I am all four being aggressive, but being aggressive 908 00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,880 Speaker 1: like it doesn't when you get overly aggressive, which you 909 00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,840 Speaker 1: could argue they have been, you can put yourself in 910 00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:23,200 Speaker 1: somewhat of a predicament because you don't have the capital 911 00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:27,640 Speaker 1: to compete with other teams. And it's just that's the 912 00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:30,160 Speaker 1: way the world works, right, Google and Apple have more 913 00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:34,879 Speaker 1: resources than like your local boutique, you know, And that's 914 00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,240 Speaker 1: just the nature of the business. Put in the NFL, 915 00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,960 Speaker 1: all these people at the same resources, you just get 916 00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:47,800 Speaker 1: to choose how to allocate. Okay, back with my main man, Stucky, 917 00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,640 Speaker 1: who is you know, I wouldn't say scorching hot, but 918 00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,600 Speaker 1: he's seventeen and twelve on the season. He's making money 919 00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,879 Speaker 1: at a good week. Last week, you know, I tried 920 00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,440 Speaker 1: to convince him I like the Lions against the Dolphins, 921 00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:01,919 Speaker 1: and pretty sure, are you like the Dolphins? And yeah, 922 00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,640 Speaker 1: you just you never bet on Dan Campbell. You can 923 00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:08,160 Speaker 1: find them on the Action Network Action Network podcast on 924 00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,960 Speaker 1: Thursday as well as Big Bets on Campus because subscribed 925 00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,640 Speaker 1: to that bad Boy I know as Wildcats got their 926 00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:17,080 Speaker 1: ass kicked by Tennessee Stucky. What's up, bro? What's going 927 00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,840 Speaker 1: on now? Actually? I had the lines with you the 928 00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,520 Speaker 1: It was an interesting NFL week. There was a lot 929 00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,480 Speaker 1: of bets that came down to like random you did 930 00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,360 Speaker 1: I had? I had the lines, money line, you had, 931 00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,359 Speaker 1: you had the points. I went money line parlay. That's 932 00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,640 Speaker 1: where you get hitting the teeth. Yeah, hopefully some people 933 00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,799 Speaker 1: got four. I had some three and a half, which 934 00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:36,960 Speaker 1: was terrible. They led the whole game. But your lines 935 00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,080 Speaker 1: had a chance to at late driving didn't convert a 936 00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:44,200 Speaker 1: fourth down. Cardinals had a chance. Late driving didn't convert 937 00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,839 Speaker 1: a fourth down. The Packers then driving getting the back door. 938 00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,279 Speaker 1: So it was one of those weeks. But we're on 939 00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,919 Speaker 1: to this week and oh and the Patriots were pretty easy. 940 00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:59,520 Speaker 1: Zach Wilson is just a disaster. Oh my god. I 941 00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:03,960 Speaker 1: actually the Packer game is a good example of when 942 00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:08,120 Speaker 1: you get that many points with a just credible operation. Right. 943 00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:09,640 Speaker 1: I know they're having a rough year, but I mean, 944 00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,719 Speaker 1: they got Aaron fucking Rodgers like that. That is a 945 00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:14,120 Speaker 1: lot of points because you go, you're watching the first 946 00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:15,719 Speaker 1: half of you like they're gonna lose by fifty. Well, 947 00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,719 Speaker 1: that's not this is in college. That's usually not how 948 00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:22,320 Speaker 1: this thing works. Yeah, that's that's why. Yeah, it sounds 949 00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:24,480 Speaker 1: cliche to say I have a Hall of Fame quarterback 950 00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:28,759 Speaker 1: catching eleven. But if I'm doubt I said, if I'm 951 00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:32,360 Speaker 1: down fourteen to seventeen late with the ball, I it 952 00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,680 Speaker 1: could be in worse situations than to have a Hall 953 00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:36,640 Speaker 1: of Fame quarterback on your side. And they went ninety 954 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:40,520 Speaker 1: five yards to get in the backdoor. Fortunately, it's the 955 00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,920 Speaker 1: biggest spread of his career right as an underduck. Yeah, 956 00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:47,040 Speaker 1: Rogers's times ever a double digit underdog. He's now four 957 00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:50,239 Speaker 1: and oh against the spread as an underdog over six 958 00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:55,560 Speaker 1: points all four. We're on Halloween weekend. For what it's worth, 959 00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:57,879 Speaker 1: big picture, because I've heard it a lot, and I'm 960 00:49:57,920 --> 00:49:59,279 Speaker 1: sure you have two and I know you're digging in 961 00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,200 Speaker 1: the numbers, you know, moving forward, when they play good 962 00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,480 Speaker 1: teams like I mean they're not. Do you think they're 963 00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:07,279 Speaker 1: going to get respect moving forward? Are they going to 964 00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:08,440 Speaker 1: be a team that you might be able to get 965 00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,440 Speaker 1: some value on. You know, the forty nine ers last 966 00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:11,839 Speaker 1: year were three and five and they kind of figured 967 00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,239 Speaker 1: out some stuff. I know, it's a little different. They're 968 00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:17,040 Speaker 1: passing games sucks, and they're depending on these receivers and 969 00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,920 Speaker 1: a couple of them are hurt or do you think 970 00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,279 Speaker 1: just stay away from the Packers. Yeah, I think that 971 00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:25,800 Speaker 1: I think that they'll have some value, especially as an underdog. 972 00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,120 Speaker 1: I do think that the market has gone a little 973 00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,759 Speaker 1: bit too far the other way on them, because I 974 00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,560 Speaker 1: do believe that the rookie receivers will get better and 975 00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:38,080 Speaker 1: you know, they'll get their timing down with Rogers. But 976 00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:43,680 Speaker 1: their offense is actually better than people assume. So they 977 00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:47,279 Speaker 1: have no explosiveness, right, there's no nothing vertical. But they're 978 00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:50,560 Speaker 1: like sixth and success rate. They're actually moving the ball. 979 00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:55,239 Speaker 1: They're they're worst. They have the worst fourth down percentage 980 00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:59,400 Speaker 1: in the NFL. They're eighteen percent. Their third down percentage 981 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,320 Speaker 1: is really they were over two or fourth down against 982 00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,480 Speaker 1: the Bills, like at the Ford Bills forty yard line, 983 00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:07,560 Speaker 1: so their drives are just getting killed and fourth downs 984 00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,920 Speaker 1: are highly there. Like there's a lot of variants there, 985 00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:13,239 Speaker 1: so and it's tough. They're gonna have to drive to 986 00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:14,640 Speaker 1: the field, but I think their offense will get a 987 00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,200 Speaker 1: little bit better. The thing with them is that once 988 00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,879 Speaker 1: they get a lead, so once this, you know, their 989 00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,239 Speaker 1: their drives start turning into points. Then their defense is 990 00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,359 Speaker 1: good because their defense, which played well last week Againt 991 00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,000 Speaker 1: Josh Allen picked them off twice, can defend the pass. 992 00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,640 Speaker 1: So it's built to play with a lead. But if 993 00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:34,800 Speaker 1: they're playing from behind, they can't stop the run, and 994 00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:36,680 Speaker 1: then the team is just has a lead and is 995 00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:40,879 Speaker 1: running it and then it's just they pile on. So yeah, 996 00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,960 Speaker 1: I think, especially as an underdogs, you don't really want 997 00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:45,759 Speaker 1: to lay points, you know, a big number with this 998 00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:49,200 Speaker 1: team because their offense is so limited. But I do 999 00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:51,239 Speaker 1: think that the Packers might have some value here coming 1000 00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:54,520 Speaker 1: up before we dive into the three games. You know, 1001 00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,720 Speaker 1: we talked last week at the end about the Niners. 1002 00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:00,279 Speaker 1: I mean, are you buying now They're a billing to 1003 00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,799 Speaker 1: make some hay here in this d NFC. Yeah, I've 1004 00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,239 Speaker 1: I've said all along. I was so impressed last week. 1005 00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:10,200 Speaker 1: And it's like without debo, without use check, and then 1006 00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:12,920 Speaker 1: the defense isn't fully healthy yet, and I think once 1007 00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:19,000 Speaker 1: the defense is fully healthy, I would argue it's now 1008 00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,640 Speaker 1: the Broncos are just gonna wear down eventually, but the 1009 00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,640 Speaker 1: Broncos are fully healthier up there. You go back to 1010 00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,040 Speaker 1: that Broncos forty nine, there's like eleven ten, but forty 1011 00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:30,160 Speaker 1: nine Ers are one of the three best defenses in 1012 00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:34,440 Speaker 1: the NFL and can argue the best. And then you 1013 00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:37,640 Speaker 1: know that offense now once they get all the parts 1014 00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:41,120 Speaker 1: fully healthy, you know their tackles are back. Debo with 1015 00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:47,960 Speaker 1: McCaffrey there. Yeah, I think that they are. It's them 1016 00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:52,520 Speaker 1: or the Eagles, and I would love to see those 1017 00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,040 Speaker 1: two teams play. The Eagles are just gonna cruise and 1018 00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:57,960 Speaker 1: maybe it's gonna be like shocked to the system where 1019 00:52:57,960 --> 00:52:59,759 Speaker 1: they have to play a good team. And if you 1020 00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,680 Speaker 1: jump out on the Eagles, like let's make them play 1021 00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:03,040 Speaker 1: from behind. I don't know when the next time they're 1022 00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:04,839 Speaker 1: going to play from behind, because their schedule is a joke. 1023 00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:09,920 Speaker 1: But yeah, it's it's forty nine Ers or Eagles, maybe 1024 00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:14,239 Speaker 1: Cowboys next run. And that's the NFC because it's very weak. 1025 00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:17,760 Speaker 1: Do you think Minnesota's basically a lock two seed? Because 1026 00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:19,880 Speaker 1: that to me, like, you know, if the Niners end 1027 00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,719 Speaker 1: up ten and seven again, or let's say eleven and 1028 00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:26,279 Speaker 1: six assuming Seattle comes back to like they should win 1029 00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,400 Speaker 1: the division, but that's probably more than likely just because 1030 00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:31,160 Speaker 1: you know, the Vikings, you just kind of have a 1031 00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,520 Speaker 1: little cushion with only one loss. Division kind of stinks. 1032 00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,560 Speaker 1: I mean, it feels like they're just kind of cruising 1033 00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,080 Speaker 1: for that two seed, assuming that the Eagles go like 1034 00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:43,839 Speaker 1: fifteen and two. Yeah, it's yeah, they'll probably be. Yeah, 1035 00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:45,439 Speaker 1: I would have seen there too, but it doesn't really matter. 1036 00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:49,759 Speaker 1: It's like the one and that's ultimately it's basically the 1037 00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,680 Speaker 1: Niners would play the Vikings assuming they both win that 1038 00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:54,600 Speaker 1: first round, they'd have to go on the road, which 1039 00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:58,759 Speaker 1: the forty Niners don't mind doing that they did last year. Yeah, 1040 00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:00,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that it's the Niners and Eagles 1041 00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:06,319 Speaker 1: in the NFC clear one two hierarchy, and it's very 1042 00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:10,919 Speaker 1: top head of the NFC. Can let's dive into this week, 1043 00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:13,880 Speaker 1: which is you know, it feels like a pretty crappy 1044 00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,600 Speaker 1: slate right this this game. I mean, I'm sorry you 1045 00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,320 Speaker 1: I get paid to watch and talk about football. You 1046 00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:24,520 Speaker 1: can't the Colts. I just can't consume them like that. 1047 00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:29,000 Speaker 1: That is a terrible fucking product. Now, the Patriots, as 1048 00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:32,440 Speaker 1: you said last week, they just are gonna struggle to score. 1049 00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:34,680 Speaker 1: You know, they're gonna have to win. I mean, they're 1050 00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:37,120 Speaker 1: gonna win their games in the teens and keep you 1051 00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,840 Speaker 1: hopefully around single digits to low teens. Like that's just 1052 00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,200 Speaker 1: they're gonna win seventeen to thirteen, right, seventeen to ten, 1053 00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:46,560 Speaker 1: like fourteen to nine, like that's gonna be there, so 1054 00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:51,080 Speaker 1: five and a half for them. But like Sam Ellinger 1055 00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:55,000 Speaker 1: against Belichick that this game would make me a little 1056 00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:58,439 Speaker 1: I just couldn't bet on the Colts, how about you? Yeah, 1057 00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:02,480 Speaker 1: I took the Colts here, and it's kind of ugly. 1058 00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:05,360 Speaker 1: But this scoring is so down in the NFL this 1059 00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:10,160 Speaker 1: year that it is it's difficult to build margin, especially 1060 00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:14,480 Speaker 1: with an offense that's limited as the Patriots have, you know, 1061 00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:18,360 Speaker 1: and you look this year dogs of over a field 1062 00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:21,400 Speaker 1: goal in twenty twenty two or forty seven and twenty 1063 00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,520 Speaker 1: six against the spread sixty four point four percent. Obviously, 1064 00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:29,160 Speaker 1: lower scoring, closer games, harder to build a margin. And 1065 00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:32,239 Speaker 1: I thought Ellinger looked good last week. I mean he 1066 00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:34,080 Speaker 1: was eleven of thirteen, one hundred and fifty yards in 1067 00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,960 Speaker 1: the second half, including a twenty yard drop by Pittman 1068 00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:38,279 Speaker 1: that he put right on the money that could have 1069 00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:42,480 Speaker 1: won them the game late. And you know, when I 1070 00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:44,919 Speaker 1: look at the matchup of these two teams, the one 1071 00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,680 Speaker 1: good thing about the Colts this year has been their 1072 00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,279 Speaker 1: run defense. It's top five run dy. They also, you know, 1073 00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:55,439 Speaker 1: have Shack Leonard back now Quitty pay should come back. 1074 00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:58,719 Speaker 1: That's their strength is their run defense, and that's what 1075 00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:02,080 Speaker 1: the Patriots do. They run it. Mac Jones is struggling 1076 00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:04,560 Speaker 1: this year. You know, you saw last week get a 1077 00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,200 Speaker 1: pick six that could have changed that game around, but 1078 00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:08,960 Speaker 1: there was a roughing to pass on an awful throw. 1079 00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:11,040 Speaker 1: I mean, he's twenty fifth and eight pay per play, 1080 00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:13,760 Speaker 1: So yeah, I just think that the Colts run defense 1081 00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,560 Speaker 1: can battle here. The Colts have Shotothan Taylor is one 1082 00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,560 Speaker 1: hundred percent. He's dealing with an ankle injury. He can 1083 00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:22,840 Speaker 1: have some success on the ground against the Patriots. Rundy 1084 00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:25,040 Speaker 1: that's struggling, and I just think it'll be a low 1085 00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:27,920 Speaker 1: scoring game. Totals thirty eight and a half, so you're 1086 00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:31,480 Speaker 1: gonna give me five and a half here, Yeah. Yeah. 1087 00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:35,320 Speaker 1: Mac Jones also has struggled against zone Colts run a 1088 00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:38,000 Speaker 1: lot of so I like the matchup. I like getting 1089 00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:41,040 Speaker 1: five and a half in a game that should be 1090 00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:45,319 Speaker 1: really low scoring. So yeah, I'll take the points here. 1091 00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:52,480 Speaker 1: Rams at Tampa. You know, eventually Brady's just kind of 1092 00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:54,759 Speaker 1: draw a line in the sand or just quit. And 1093 00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,080 Speaker 1: I just think the Rams aren't that good. I mean, 1094 00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:00,680 Speaker 1: they're just they're fatally flawed. They have no running backs 1095 00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:03,840 Speaker 1: Cooper Cup. I know they're trying to downplay it, but 1096 00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,200 Speaker 1: I mean he glimped off the field. It did not 1097 00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,200 Speaker 1: look good. And if you've watched the Rams, they're basically 1098 00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,240 Speaker 1: like an NBA team, and he's one of their stars, 1099 00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,360 Speaker 1: and without him they can't function. So if he is 1100 00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:19,680 Speaker 1: eighty percent, they would be in major, major trouble. I 1101 00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,120 Speaker 1: guess I would take maybe to short the Ramps. I mean, 1102 00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:25,360 Speaker 1: we're looking at the Lions end up draft the number 1103 00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:27,479 Speaker 1: one overall and they get like the seventh pick, because 1104 00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,880 Speaker 1: the Rams end up at six and eleven. I think 1105 00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:31,960 Speaker 1: the Rams are closer to six and eleven this year 1106 00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:35,440 Speaker 1: than they are a ten win team. I mean, they 1107 00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:38,400 Speaker 1: have major, major issues. So I'm just I would just 1108 00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:41,040 Speaker 1: short the Rams for as bad as and weird as 1109 00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:44,960 Speaker 1: Tampa has been Yeah, I agree, this is partly a 1110 00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:49,640 Speaker 1: play on Tampa. You know, they're they're getting healthier, right, 1111 00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:51,600 Speaker 1: So early in the year they had all their receivers 1112 00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:53,720 Speaker 1: were out. They last the last couple weeks, they've had 1113 00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:56,439 Speaker 1: a bunch of defenders out. They're coming off a mini 1114 00:57:56,520 --> 00:58:01,080 Speaker 1: bi here another home game Rams are having across the country. 1115 00:58:01,840 --> 00:58:04,680 Speaker 1: And look, I think that the Bucks are now a 1116 00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:07,520 Speaker 1: better offense. Let's look at let's look at adjust a 1117 00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:10,960 Speaker 1: DPA per play adjust for opponent. Bucks offense is twentieth 1118 00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:15,040 Speaker 1: in the NFL this year, the Rams thirty second, dead last. 1119 00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:20,600 Speaker 1: How about the quarterbacks? Just the DPR APR play Brady thirteenth, 1120 00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:25,440 Speaker 1: Stafford twenty six. And then in the defense, Rams sixteenth, 1121 00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,680 Speaker 1: Bucks eighth. Special teams Bucks been better. So I had 1122 00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:31,680 Speaker 1: the better offense, a better defense, the better special teams, 1123 00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:34,040 Speaker 1: the better quarterback in a good situation at home with 1124 00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:37,480 Speaker 1: extended rest, and their best player. Rams best player might 1125 00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:40,320 Speaker 1: be banged up. And uh, you know, I don't think 1126 00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:43,200 Speaker 1: either team's gonna have success running the ball. So what 1127 00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,840 Speaker 1: about Tampa's Tampa's Division two, I mean, they are pretty 1128 00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:49,320 Speaker 1: much alive, as crappy as everything's gone. Yeah, that's crazy. 1129 00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:54,160 Speaker 1: And when you also look at what Brady has done 1130 00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:56,240 Speaker 1: this year, he's he's you know, he's dealt with the 1131 00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:59,840 Speaker 1: offensive line is not as good. The receivers have been hurt, 1132 00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:01,960 Speaker 1: and when he's under pressure, he's just getting rid of 1133 00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:03,919 Speaker 1: the ball like he doesn't trust the offensive line. He's 1134 00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:05,720 Speaker 1: getting rid of the ball so quick. That's when he's 1135 00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,360 Speaker 1: not looked right. When he has a clean pocket, stoles 1136 00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:11,920 Speaker 1: elite numbers actually leads a league in big time throws 1137 00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:17,040 Speaker 1: with a clean pocket nine touchdowns, one interception. Believe it 1138 00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:21,080 Speaker 1: or not, The Rams are have the second lowest pressure 1139 00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:24,720 Speaker 1: rate in the NFL twelve percent. I mean, this is 1140 00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:28,520 Speaker 1: Los von Miller and hey, let's just block Aaron Donald 1141 00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:31,640 Speaker 1: with three guys and they're not getting any pressure. Second lowest. 1142 00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:34,560 Speaker 1: It's them and the Falcons are down at eleven twelve percent. 1143 00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:37,080 Speaker 1: So Brady should have a clean pocket. Here. Receivers are 1144 00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:41,160 Speaker 1: a lot healthier off extended rest. And yeah, I mean 1145 00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:45,040 Speaker 1: you look at what Stafford is doing. I mean Stafford 1146 00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,560 Speaker 1: has a negative EPA per play, so every time he 1147 00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:51,240 Speaker 1: drops back this year on average, is costing his team points. 1148 00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:55,120 Speaker 1: Here's the tires, here's the teams with excuse me. Here 1149 00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,720 Speaker 1: are the quarterbacks with negative EPA per play besides Stafford, 1150 00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:04,960 Speaker 1: Winston ben Ryan benched, Trubisky benched, Zach Wilson should be benched, 1151 01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:11,800 Speaker 1: Wentz benched, Flacco benched, Mayfield benched, Davis Mills, and Kenny Pickett, 1152 01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,720 Speaker 1: who should probably be sitting on benches right now. That's it. 1153 01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:18,600 Speaker 1: And his average his average depth of target is five 1154 01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:21,919 Speaker 1: point nine yards. That's the lowest in the NFL. Last 1155 01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:24,240 Speaker 1: year was eight and a half. Three years ago he 1156 01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:27,760 Speaker 1: led the NFL at ten point eight. This offense has broken, 1157 01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,800 Speaker 1: the defense is not getting any pressure and has been bad. 1158 01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:36,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, I'll take two desperate teams here. I'll take 1159 01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,920 Speaker 1: the Bucks to get revenge at home in a good spot. 1160 01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:42,440 Speaker 1: And if Cup is banged up at all or he 1161 01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:48,520 Speaker 1: can't go or the it's it's trouble time for the Rams. Okay, 1162 01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:53,360 Speaker 1: let's another you know, NFC West battleground here. Somehow Seattle's 1163 01:00:53,400 --> 01:00:58,440 Speaker 1: in first place, which they're definitely a lot better than 1164 01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:02,240 Speaker 1: we all envisioned. But you know, at the end of 1165 01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:03,920 Speaker 1: the day, are they gonna end up an eight and 1166 01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:07,840 Speaker 1: nine team more closely than a ten and you know 1167 01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:11,040 Speaker 1: seven team. I would probably bet on that. You had 1168 01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,000 Speaker 1: the stat last week. You could correct me if I'm wrong. 1169 01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:16,440 Speaker 1: Is it twenty seven points they average with Hopkins and 1170 01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:19,040 Speaker 1: seventeen without him? Or is an eighteen? Yea, It's a 1171 01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:21,840 Speaker 1: huge difference, and you feel it when you watch them play. 1172 01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:25,320 Speaker 1: I mean, that fucking guy is just you just throw 1173 01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:27,720 Speaker 1: the ball up and he makes the catch. He is 1174 01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:30,880 Speaker 1: a monster. Kyler's comfortable with him, you know, for I 1175 01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:34,480 Speaker 1: hate everything about him, but not not Hopkins, but just 1176 01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:39,000 Speaker 1: the operation. The Arizona Cardinals, they are a much scarier version. 1177 01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:42,240 Speaker 1: Even if they are, you know, a non playoff team, 1178 01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:45,960 Speaker 1: they are better than the majority of non playoff teams 1179 01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:49,000 Speaker 1: right just when their quarterback, and especially at home in 1180 01:01:49,080 --> 01:01:53,480 Speaker 1: a dome, now does he care? Are they over the season? 1181 01:01:53,880 --> 01:01:56,960 Speaker 1: Who knows? Seattle obviously has a lot to play for. 1182 01:01:57,040 --> 01:01:58,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you win this game all of a sudden, 1183 01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:00,640 Speaker 1: you're six and four and you're kind of with the 1184 01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:02,800 Speaker 1: Niners being off, and if the Rams lose, you just 1185 01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:05,800 Speaker 1: beat the Cardinals again, you know, I mean, you'd be 1186 01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:09,400 Speaker 1: in you'd be in a pretty good shape. So I 1187 01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:11,360 Speaker 1: mean the Seattle has a lot on the line in 1188 01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:15,840 Speaker 1: this game. But I do just wonder if Arizona. I mean, 1189 01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:17,840 Speaker 1: they just score a lot of points right now, So 1190 01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:23,000 Speaker 1: I I would struggle putting money on Cliff and Kyler, 1191 01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:27,160 Speaker 1: but they feel like to play here. Yeah, I played 1192 01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:29,560 Speaker 1: the Cardinals here. I hate it. But last week I 1193 01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,160 Speaker 1: played them plus four I'd played again. It was a 1194 01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:33,600 Speaker 1: dead even game. The Cardinals lose it on muff punt. 1195 01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:35,400 Speaker 1: Basically at the end of the game, they were getting 1196 01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:38,560 Speaker 1: the ball back down to muff punt. Uh if I 1197 01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:40,640 Speaker 1: can score touchdown to twenty yard drive and then the 1198 01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:42,680 Speaker 1: but the Cardinals go down the field and turn it 1199 01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:47,600 Speaker 1: over on downs inside Minnesota Territory game, men's a touchdown 1200 01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:52,160 Speaker 1: in a completely statistic, statistically even game. Cardinals they just start, 1201 01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:56,640 Speaker 1: they start so slow. Yeah, it's it's horrendous. I don't 1202 01:02:56,680 --> 01:02:59,280 Speaker 1: know what they do, it's the coaching staff, but it's 1203 01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,200 Speaker 1: it's really bad. But I have to bet the Cardinals here. 1204 01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:05,600 Speaker 1: As much as I hate it. My overall general philosophy, 1205 01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,520 Speaker 1: I think if I boiled down how I've always bet 1206 01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,120 Speaker 1: NFL is it's sort of and I have a background 1207 01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:13,880 Speaker 1: of finance. It's sort of like the market, and I'm 1208 01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:17,040 Speaker 1: trying to buy low, buy the bottom of the market 1209 01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:20,760 Speaker 1: on the team and sell the top or the sell high. 1210 01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:24,160 Speaker 1: When a team reaches it's what I consider its peak. 1211 01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:26,680 Speaker 1: And I think that's it for Seattle right now. These 1212 01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:30,040 Speaker 1: two teams just played a couple of weeks ago. Arizona 1213 01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:33,960 Speaker 1: was a two and a half point favorite at Seattle, 1214 01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:38,360 Speaker 1: one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Also, 1215 01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:42,880 Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins did not play in that game, so yes, 1216 01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:46,720 Speaker 1: we've you know, upgrade the Seahawks for that win. Ugly game. 1217 01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:49,800 Speaker 1: The game was twelve nine and the fourth quarter both 1218 01:03:49,800 --> 01:03:51,760 Speaker 1: teams average about four and a half yards per play. 1219 01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:56,600 Speaker 1: Now I can get Arizona minus two at home with 1220 01:03:56,800 --> 01:04:01,240 Speaker 1: Hopkins back, I have to take it this look. Before 1221 01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:04,360 Speaker 1: the season started, people were saying Seattle was the worst 1222 01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:07,920 Speaker 1: team in the league by far. They it's them in 1223 01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:13,000 Speaker 1: the Falcons right and now and then the Texans. Now 1224 01:04:13,280 --> 01:04:18,080 Speaker 1: people are saying it Gino Smith MVP are the Sehawk's 1225 01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:22,240 Speaker 1: a potential threat to win the NFC. Reading all these articles, 1226 01:04:22,320 --> 01:04:24,400 Speaker 1: hearing all these things about Seattle, every wants the back Seattle. 1227 01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:26,720 Speaker 1: By the way, night this is the biggest public bet 1228 01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:29,920 Speaker 1: of the of the week. For me, I don't really 1229 01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:32,480 Speaker 1: care about those flits, but it tells me that the lot. Okay, 1230 01:04:32,560 --> 01:04:35,080 Speaker 1: the light isn't wrong. Everyone still wants to bet Seattle. 1231 01:04:35,440 --> 01:04:36,840 Speaker 1: So I think this is the top of the market. 1232 01:04:36,880 --> 01:04:39,520 Speaker 1: And like now we've gone from we've done a complete 1233 01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,840 Speaker 1: one eighty on Seattle. They're obviously way better than anticipated. 1234 01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:46,040 Speaker 1: And Gino Smith is he rich Gannon like a guy 1235 01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:48,760 Speaker 1: that was a perennial backup now rejuvenates his career or 1236 01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:51,400 Speaker 1: is it just like a flash in the pan it gets, 1237 01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:55,520 Speaker 1: you know, like a Nick Foles, like they're the Bills 1238 01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:58,720 Speaker 1: are the chiefs on the Pacific Northwest. It's crazy. And 1239 01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:01,640 Speaker 1: then look, let's look at who they beat. They beat 1240 01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:04,480 Speaker 1: the Broncos and Russell Wilson, who have been to disaster 1241 01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:07,040 Speaker 1: and they should have lost that game. Broncos are inside 1242 01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:10,840 Speaker 1: the ten fifteen times. They beat the Lions by you know, 1243 01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:15,040 Speaker 1: forty eight, forty five lines are down Saint Brown and swift. 1244 01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:17,960 Speaker 1: They beat the Cardinals we just talked about without Hopkins. 1245 01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:22,240 Speaker 1: They beat the Chargers like missing ten starters, and then 1246 01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:24,160 Speaker 1: they just beat the Giants. So I don't think anyone 1247 01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:27,160 Speaker 1: thinks is really good. And that's their wins this year. 1248 01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:31,640 Speaker 1: The Broncos lion you know underman Lions Cardinals without Hopkins, 1249 01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:35,680 Speaker 1: Chargers missing ten starters, and the Giants, and now everyone 1250 01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:38,360 Speaker 1: is saying, you know, and they got drilled by the 1251 01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:42,400 Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Everyone's forgot about that. So yeah, I 1252 01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:44,440 Speaker 1: think the love has just gone too far in Seattle. 1253 01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:46,800 Speaker 1: This is It's not a great team by any stretch. 1254 01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:50,200 Speaker 1: They're not bottom of the barrel. So I'm gonna try 1255 01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:54,280 Speaker 1: to sell high here and hopefully Cliff has his boys 1256 01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:57,640 Speaker 1: ready and they're not down seventeen nothing three minutes into 1257 01:05:57,640 --> 01:06:01,880 Speaker 1: the game. Any takes on the two big SEC games 1258 01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:05,920 Speaker 1: Georgia Tennessee and Bama Alshu, Yeah, I have there's a 1259 01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:10,160 Speaker 1: value is a value in Louisiana State University. Yeah, if 1260 01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:12,680 Speaker 1: I'm waiting on fourteen, I think if you can get fourteen, 1261 01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:16,400 Speaker 1: there's some holes on this Alabama team. Particularly, you know, 1262 01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:19,280 Speaker 1: their offensive line isn't as strong as it has been 1263 01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:22,240 Speaker 1: ELSEU is a really good defensive line. Their receivers just 1264 01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:25,520 Speaker 1: haven't panned out. Like Bryce Young is incredible and some 1265 01:06:25,640 --> 01:06:28,840 Speaker 1: of the plays that he makes and extending plays, but 1266 01:06:29,000 --> 01:06:32,920 Speaker 1: they're just lack explosiveness at times at the receiver position. 1267 01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:35,920 Speaker 1: Compared to you know, the bar is very high compared 1268 01:06:35,960 --> 01:06:40,320 Speaker 1: to years passes. Then their secondary it has some holes 1269 01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:43,000 Speaker 1: we saw, We've seen at times them get exposed there 1270 01:06:43,040 --> 01:06:46,880 Speaker 1: and LSU's kind of trending up on with their passing offense. 1271 01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:49,760 Speaker 1: I do, I do. I would like fourteen in that game, 1272 01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:52,800 Speaker 1: But I do think Tennessee has a lot of value 1273 01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:55,080 Speaker 1: and this is gonna be a big public play. You're 1274 01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:58,520 Speaker 1: hearing everyone is on Tennessee. This is the same thing 1275 01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:01,520 Speaker 1: against Alabama. I think this line is too high. This 1276 01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:07,880 Speaker 1: Tennessee offense is real, it is spectacular, and I don't 1277 01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:10,520 Speaker 1: know if this Georgia defense is ready for it. This 1278 01:07:10,600 --> 01:07:13,200 Speaker 1: Georgia defense lost a lot of pros. They also have 1279 01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:16,640 Speaker 1: a couple of injuries. Now, yes, they got to beat 1280 01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:20,120 Speaker 1: up on Oregon and the opener transfer quarterback news system 1281 01:07:20,640 --> 01:07:26,200 Speaker 1: opening games. Since then, they've played no offenses. This Tennessee offense. Now, 1282 01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:28,000 Speaker 1: when you had Cedric Tillman is one of the best 1283 01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:31,600 Speaker 1: receivers in the country, best big game receivers. Last year 1284 01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:35,320 Speaker 1: against this Georgia defense, which was elite historic, he had 1285 01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:38,840 Speaker 1: ten catches for two hundred yards. Also had eight catches 1286 01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:41,600 Speaker 1: for one hundred and sixty against Alabama. They're adding him, 1287 01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:44,120 Speaker 1: He's not full go adding him he's a first round 1288 01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:46,360 Speaker 1: draft pick. They're adding him back to the offense. He 1289 01:07:46,440 --> 01:07:48,800 Speaker 1: got a couple of snaps in and he's gonna start 1290 01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:52,120 Speaker 1: and play the whole game this week. So yeah, everyone 1291 01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:53,960 Speaker 1: loves it. I love it too. I think there's too 1292 01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:58,840 Speaker 1: many points for Tennessee at Georgia should be a hall 1293 01:07:58,840 --> 01:08:02,560 Speaker 1: of a game, and it's worth Over the past fifty years, 1294 01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:06,960 Speaker 1: there's only been ten matchups of one verse two where 1295 01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:11,840 Speaker 1: the spread is over a touchdown underdog eight and two 1296 01:08:12,080 --> 01:08:15,760 Speaker 1: against the spread one six of the ten as a 1297 01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:20,519 Speaker 1: underdog of seven plus small sample size, but interesting tidbit, 1298 01:08:20,640 --> 01:08:23,720 Speaker 1: and should be a really exciting game because Georgie is 1299 01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:26,880 Speaker 1: certainly gonna put up its points as well. I might 1300 01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:31,320 Speaker 1: go with a little Tennessee LSU when the points parlay, 1301 01:08:31,479 --> 01:08:35,000 Speaker 1: kind of like that. Yeah, my nightmare game makes me 1302 01:08:35,040 --> 01:08:37,280 Speaker 1: a little nervous again. But is it? It is in 1303 01:08:37,400 --> 01:08:39,880 Speaker 1: Baton Rouge at night, So yeah, he's playing a lot, 1304 01:08:39,920 --> 01:08:43,479 Speaker 1: He's playing a lot better. The competition hasn't been great, 1305 01:08:43,520 --> 01:08:47,480 Speaker 1: so that's the question my nightmares. I have a fourteen 1306 01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:52,680 Speaker 1: to one ticket on Tennessee to win the division, and 1307 01:08:54,000 --> 01:08:55,679 Speaker 1: if they win this game, they're gonna win the division. 1308 01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:57,519 Speaker 1: If they lose this game, there's a chance that they 1309 01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:00,600 Speaker 1: could win the national title and lose their vision and 1310 01:09:00,760 --> 01:09:02,719 Speaker 1: I will be pulling my hair out if that happens. 1311 01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:05,679 Speaker 1: So you got a night, you got a lot riding 1312 01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:09,559 Speaker 1: on this weekend? Yeah, Rocky Top, Rocky Top comes down 1313 01:09:09,600 --> 01:09:12,320 Speaker 1: to baby, you got it. You beat Bama, Now you 1314 01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:16,600 Speaker 1: get Georgia. Let's roll, let's Chucky, enjoy it. Hopefully you 1315 01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:19,280 Speaker 1: have some a few tetoes and red bulls wh while 1316 01:09:19,280 --> 01:09:22,439 Speaker 1: you're watching that bad boy and enjoy the weekend. Yeah, 1317 01:09:22,479 --> 01:09:26,360 Speaker 1: breeders cut weekend alext. It'll be fun. Good luck to 1318 01:09:26,439 --> 01:09:31,400 Speaker 1: you as well. Uh, Rocky Top, Rocky Top Baby. Later 1319 01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:54,519 Speaker 1: the volume