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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parol. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk. Matt Boy, do we have a big day today.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Divisional weekend for the NFL. Now, we are

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Speaker 2: live today at our normally scheduled time. Even though the game,

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Speaker 2: the first game won't kick off for a while, it

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Speaker 2: won't kick off till four thirty Eastern time, we are

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Speaker 2: still going to go live at eleven am, sorry noon

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Speaker 2: Eastern time and take you up to one o'clock so

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Speaker 2: nine am Pacific noon Eastern.

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Speaker 1: We will take you like.

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Speaker 2: We always do, right up to what would be mythical

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Speaker 2: kickoff for the NFL. But we're just going to do

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Speaker 2: that are normally scheduled time. Andrew Rickson and myself will

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Speaker 2: have you for one hour from twelve noon to one

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Speaker 2: pm Eastern time, will break down props, picks, plays for

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Speaker 2: all four games. Okay, I've got plays for Saturday today

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Speaker 2: on today's podcast. You're gonna get tomorrow's plays live today.

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Speaker 2: So if you want to get ahead and find out

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Speaker 2: what I'm gonna play on Sunday. I will tell you

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Speaker 2: what I'm gonna play on Sunday on the live stream

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Speaker 2: on Saturday, although there will be player props that would

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Speaker 2: be given away on Saturday given out on Saturday, and

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Speaker 2: then Sunday morning for our Discord chat, I will have

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Speaker 2: Sunday morning prop bets, so that will happen at I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna do that. I think I'm gonna do that at

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Speaker 2: let me double check here, so the yeah, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: do it at eleven o'clock Pacific, So I'm gonna do

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Speaker 2: it at two pm Eastern. I'm gonna take you right

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Speaker 2: to kick off for the Rams and the Eagles on

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Speaker 2: Sunday on the Discord channel chat okay. But for day

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Speaker 2: it's a noon Eastern time, nine am time start for

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Speaker 2: the live stream with Andrew Erikson and myself for Divisional

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Speaker 2: Card weekend, four games all broken down coming up here

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Speaker 2: today with Andrew Erkson in myself on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: I got three bets for today.

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Speaker 2: I'll give you player props later today on the live stream,

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Speaker 2: and then player props on Sunday on the Discord channel chat.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Got all that. Hopefully you do.

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Speaker 2: All right, buckle in for a second, okay, because I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna talk and if you are a trend better and

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Speaker 2: I've talked about this a lot. Evan Abrams of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network. It does exceptional job. It does an exceptional

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Speaker 2: job of finding trends. He has like a bible out

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Speaker 2: for this weekend. It's incredible. I am following so many

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Speaker 2: trends here. Now I all blow up in my face.

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Speaker 2: But let's talk about the first game, the Chiefs and

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Speaker 2: the Texans. Some of these numbers are just really really wild.

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Speaker 2: The total for this game is the second lowest ever

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Speaker 2: for Patrick Mahomes. It's the lowest in a playoff game

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Speaker 2: for Patrick Mahomes. The last time it was this low

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Speaker 2: was Christmas last year, where the total was forty and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: Forty and a half. That was the lowest. He lost

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Speaker 1: that game.

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Speaker 2: Now this total is coming in at forty one and

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Speaker 2: a half and dropping. Why Weather, It's gonna be nasty,

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Speaker 2: It's not gonna be fun at all.

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Speaker 1: But we just saw this game. We just saw this.

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Speaker 2: Are we going The Texans aren't gonna play better defensively? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they lost Tank Dell in that game, but wow, a

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Speaker 2: couple things to watch. The Texans are awesome in the

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Speaker 2: first half this year. Awesome fourteen and four against the

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Speaker 2: first half spread Jamiko Ryans is twenty six and eleven

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Speaker 2: first half spread. I'll be on this. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: make an official play of this because I'm gonna have

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Speaker 2: too many things going with the Texans. So if I'm

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Speaker 2: dead wrong, it's gonna blow up everything. So i don't

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Speaker 2: want to build the day up officially, but I'll be

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Speaker 2: on this Texans first half spread go and find it

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Speaker 2: should be five six somewhere in that range. Why well

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Speaker 2: with CJ. Stroud. Tamiko Ryans is twenty six and nine

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Speaker 2: in the first half ats in his career. That's incredible, Like,

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Speaker 2: that's just incredible. The problem is when the Chiefs are

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Speaker 2: trailing at half. If they are trailing at half, oh my.

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Speaker 2: Since twenty twenty, the Casey Chiefs are ridiculous twenty one

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Speaker 2: and twelve straight up when they are trailing at half.

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Speaker 2: No other team in the NFL has a win percentage

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Speaker 2: over forty percent, and the Chiefs have that incredible. Patrick

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Speaker 2: Mahomes as a big favorite is no boyino. He is

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Speaker 2: covering at just forty one percent of the time when

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Speaker 2: he's a favorite of seven.

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Speaker 1: Points or more.

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Speaker 2: They're zero five and one ats this year, but they

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Speaker 2: are six and zero in games where they are favored

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Speaker 2: by more seven or more points.

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Speaker 1: It's very impressive.

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Speaker 2: Since twenty twenty, Patrick Mahomes as a seven point favorite

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Speaker 2: or more is fifteen and twenty seven. Again, he's the spread.

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Speaker 2: That's thirty six percent of the time. Thirty six percent

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Speaker 2: of the time. And we know this Texans defense played

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Speaker 2: much better last week. Now they're on the road. Dome

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Speaker 2: teams on the road bad news. In the last twenty years,

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Speaker 2: when a Dome team plays outdoors in sub thirty degree

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Speaker 2: temperture weather, nine times it's happened. Those teams are two

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Speaker 2: and seven straight up. The Saints won in Philadelphia in

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Speaker 2: twenty fourteen, and the Vikings won in Green Bay in

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Speaker 2: two thousand and five.

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Speaker 1: It's been a long long time. C J.

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Speaker 2: Stroud has made thirty five career starts in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: He's ten and six against the number. As a dog,

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Speaker 2: He's seven and twelve ets as a favorite. Stroud as

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Speaker 2: an underdog. If you teased him in six point teasers,

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Speaker 2: he's thirteen and three. Keep that in mind, thirteen and three.

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes is really good when it gets cold in

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Speaker 2: games under thirty degrees. He's eight and three straight up.

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Speaker 2: He's eight and three against the spread. Really good, really

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Speaker 2: really good. I expect the Chiefs to win this game. However,

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Speaker 2: I think the Texans are going to put a really

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Speaker 2: big scare in the Chiefs. The Chiefs don't beat anybody badly,

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Speaker 2: they don't kill anybody.

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Speaker 1: They just don't like. They just don't.

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Speaker 2: To me, Texans plus eight and a half sprinkle money

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Speaker 2: line shock the world. It might happen. Why might it happen?

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Speaker 2: Here's a crazy stat. This might be the best stat

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Speaker 2: that ever d uncovered all all year in the divisional round.

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Speaker 2: When we've had two teams favored by seven or more

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Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl era, we have not seen both

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Speaker 2: teams advanced to the championship round. Like, that's crazy to

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Speaker 2: stop and think about that. To go way minute. In

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl era, we haven't seen this where one

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Speaker 2: of the two teams that are big favorites are probably

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Speaker 2: going to lose. I'll read you just off the website.

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Speaker 2: So you tell me, Matt, you're dead wrong. That's crazy.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna read this to you.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: We haven't seen two or more seven point favorite teams

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Speaker 2: go undefeated ats in the divisional round since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and one. Sixteen different years in that span, we've had

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Speaker 2: two or more big favorites play in the divisional round

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Speaker 2: without a two to zero ATS mark. So one of

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Speaker 2: the two teams aren't going to cover. But it's equally

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Speaker 2: crazy when it becomes they could lose it outright and

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Speaker 2: go hold on a second. In the Super Bowl era,

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Speaker 2: we've never had two or more seven point favorites in

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Speaker 2: a divisional round and not have at least one outright

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Speaker 2: win in advance. So we're gonna see one of these

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Speaker 2: teams advance. Both of them won't lose. One of these

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Speaker 2: teams will advance. So I'm coming in with a plus

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Speaker 2: eight and a half. Gave me the Texans plus eight

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Speaker 2: and a half. However, I'm not done with the Texans either. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm going Texans plus eight and a half. But I'm

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Speaker 2: also going to tease them up to fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: Why because I gave you the statu of Stroud as

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Speaker 2: just what Stroud has done. Stroud has been tremendous thirteen

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Speaker 2: and three when you tease him six point teaser thirteen

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Speaker 2: and three first, CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud.

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Speaker 2: Look, if the Chiefs win and blow them out, I'll

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Speaker 2: lose two bets and it will kill the day pretty much. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to back the Texans. I'm gonna get on

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Speaker 2: here with Houston. Maybe they shocked the world. Maybe they

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Speaker 2: pull something and go crazy. Oh I forgot to do

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Speaker 2: what recap yesterday? Sorry, I did it really fast. Celtic's

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Speaker 2: blew out the magic my team again. I've faded the

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Speaker 2: Creighton Blue Jays. I've created the Uh, let's see my

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Speaker 2: team's right. UNLV, Creighton, and the Celtics all three beat me.

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Speaker 2: I faded my teams and they all beat me, so

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Speaker 2: stop fading my own teams. I guess Josh Hart got

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Speaker 2: there for us. John Moran didn't play, so were down

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Speaker 2: point six units. So paper cut day, but a losing day.

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Speaker 2: Paper cut day plus eight and a half. Texans teased

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Speaker 2: plus fourteen and a half. What's the other half of

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Speaker 2: the teaser? Well, I'm gonna take the Lions and tease

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Speaker 2: them down. Why, Well, Dan Campbell's just ridiculous. Under Dan Campbell,

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Speaker 2: the Lions are ten and zero straight up in primetime,

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Speaker 2: winning by an average of ten points per game. They

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Speaker 2: are fifteen and one straight up under Campbell in games

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Speaker 2: that start later than four o'clock.

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Speaker 1: Their one loss came to the Bills this season.

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Speaker 2: They are tremendous when they're taking on quality football teams,

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Speaker 2: teams that are good. Jayden Daniels has had an incredible season.

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Speaker 2: He's had an amazing run. But Jared goff Indoors is

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Speaker 2: forty four to twenty one in one ats with the Lions.

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Speaker 2: He's thirty four thirteen and one ats. The Lions on

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Speaker 2: extended rest. They're twelve and four straight up thirteen and

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Speaker 2: four ats under Dan Campbell. That's the second mark in

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Speaker 2: the NFL, behind just Mike Tomlin since twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Lions are gonna win this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna tease him down to two and a half

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Speaker 2: and just go ahead and take the Lions minus two

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Speaker 2: and a half. I cannot see how this game, how

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Speaker 2: we see it go from eight and a half draftings

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Speaker 2: at eight and a half, pull it down to two

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Speaker 2: and a half, six point teaser and go Lions minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half. However, I have a third play

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Speaker 2: and in a second bet on this game. The Lions

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Speaker 2: in the first half are ridiculous, so good, so I

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Speaker 2: will make this bet. I'm gonna bet the Texans first half,

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Speaker 2: not officially, but I will fit will bet the Lions

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Speaker 2: first half officially because the Lions are ridiculous in the

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Speaker 2: first half, and it's a dome.

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Speaker 1: That place is going to be rocking.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be really hard for the Texans, sorry

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Speaker 2: for the Commanders, to get much done early in this game.

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Speaker 2: Dan Campbell is unbelievable in terms of being in the

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Speaker 2: first half. The Lions are thirty four sorry, thirty nine

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Speaker 2: fourteen and one against the first half spread. That's the

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Speaker 2: best mark in the NFL. He's nineteen and six in

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Speaker 2: the first half against the number against opponents over five hundred,

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Speaker 2: which is what the Washington Commanders are. That is too

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Speaker 2: good to pass up. I'll lay the six points Lions

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Speaker 2: minus six in the first half.

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Speaker 1: All right. Player props will be.

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Speaker 2: Added to this during the live stream, so we'll have

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Speaker 2: player props on the two games coming up here for

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Speaker 2: US today, but official plays for US on Saturday Texans

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Speaker 2: plus eight and a half for one point one units,

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Speaker 2: teaser Lions minus two and a half, Texans plus fourteen

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Speaker 2: and a half for one point two units, and the

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Speaker 2: Lions laying six in the first half up against the

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Speaker 2: Commanders for one point two units here for US officially

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Speaker 2: on a Saturday. I will talk to you at noon

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Speaker 2: Eastern time nine am Pacific time on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: YouTube channel Andrew Erickson and myself divisional what weekend breakdown

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Speaker 2: of the four games on the Betting Pros live stream

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Speaker 2: later on today minus Matt parrel to following me because

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Speaker 2: all socials at sports Talk Matt every single morning. Wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, It is the Daily Juice,