1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. What is going on 7 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: in markets? And I don't know how you play this? Fundamentally, 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: I wonder how you play this if you're a quant, 9 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: We'll to find out. Mak mood Arani joins us. He's 10 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: a co founder of quant Insight UM and Mak mood 11 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: I don't you know? The drivers have been, uh well, 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 1: going in different directions. Right on Wednesday, the market rallied 13 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: because the FED raised basis points, raised rates seventy five 14 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: basis points. And then yesterday the markets tanked because the 15 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: FED raised rates seventy five basis points. No idea, what's 16 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: going on today? How do you? How do you play 17 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: these markets? Okay, well I wouldn't focus too much on 18 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: a single day, um, but you know what we do 19 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 1: is we asked the data and we gather large amounts 20 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: of data about what's going on with economic fundamentals, real 21 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: GDP growth, inflation, financial conditions, which includes you know, real 22 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 1: interest rates and across the corporate borrowing and how much 23 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: is priced for the FED for the next twelve months, 24 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 1: and the strength of the dollar and so on, and 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: we connect to all that to what markets are doing. 26 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: And what we've seen for several months now is that 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: if we take the S and P five, the by 28 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: far the most important driver is real interest rates and 29 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: tightening of financial conditions is moving equities lower. And of 30 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: course what's driving driving that tightening of financial conditions is 31 00:01:55,080 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: inflation moving higher. And the FED of course move seventy five. 32 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: I mean, you had almost seventy priced the day they moved, anyway, 33 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: so it wasn't a massive news event to be honest. Um. 34 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: And in terms of going forward, what we can see 35 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: is that everything is really driven by this momentum of inflation, 36 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: real interest rates, and credit spreads corporate high yield corporate 37 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 1: credit spreads. Now the question then is what's going to 38 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: shift that momentum. And I think if you put a 39 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: forward looking hat on and you have this framework, that's 40 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: kind of giving you a good sense for what's going 41 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:43,839 Speaker 1: on right now. Under the surface. The game that's ultimately 42 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: going to be played here is markets need to get 43 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: some sense that inflation has peaked. And what want yea 44 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: so well exactly if inflation peaking, do you need to 45 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: wait for their next read or is there other data 46 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: that gets you there? Um. So, if we're looking at 47 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: headline inflation, clearly you know one of one of the 48 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 1: facts here is that if you look at long term 49 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: inflation expectations, and we know the FED looks at this, 50 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: those are quite closely correlated over many years to crude 51 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: oil prices. So there is undoubtedly a dynamic at play 52 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: that you know, if crude oil prices dropped sharply, you're 53 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: going to get um inflation expectations going south, and that's 54 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: going to be a comfort for the FED. Conversely, and 55 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,119 Speaker 1: we're starting to hear more and more about the physical 56 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: energy market not working especially well, crude oil not getting 57 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: to the places it needs to get to UM, and 58 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: so there is this specter hanging over the market of 59 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: a further increase in crude oil prices. And you can 60 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: add to that the possibility of sort of China emerging 61 00:03:56,760 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 1: from the latest kind of COVID lockdown. To add to 62 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: global energy demand. And so if you do get inflation rising, 63 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: that's going to move inflation expectations higher. That's going to 64 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: keep the FED on edge. And you know, if you 65 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: if you look at the last twenty years of hiking cycles, 66 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: what the market needs to go up is essentially to 67 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 1: get some idea of where the terminal rate is. Right now, 68 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: we don't know. We're pricing sort of three and a half, 69 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: but we don't really know all the FED to tell 70 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: us that it's close to done. And again we're a 71 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: long way from that, so markets hit on even has 72 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: to be a long way from that, right, I mean, 73 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: if we're looking at nine inflation um in order for 74 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: the FED to get to neutral, doesn't it have to 75 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: be much higher? Yes, you know, from a textbook perspective, 76 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: it does have to be much higher. And that's one 77 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: of the reasons the market is stratching instead and why 78 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: equities couldn't really get out of bed after that, because 79 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, there are nowhere close 80 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 1: to done. By the way, is it also is there 81 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 1: also a difference this time compared to you know, the 82 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: last twelve thirteen years in that there's no FED put 83 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 1: I mean most most people are used to the FED 84 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: coming in and saving the day, and they can't do 85 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: that now. They can't do that because inflation is too high. 86 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 1: You had a FED put in the past, because inflation 87 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 1: was solo. In fact, that the underlying fear of all 88 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: central banks in the decade after the financial crisis was 89 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,479 Speaker 1: deflation and disinflation. That was the problem. Uh. And so 90 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: they were always willing to come in with the FED 91 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: put because the inflation cost was very low. They weren't 92 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: They didn't feel they were risking letting inflation out of 93 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: the box. This time, inflation is already out of the box. 94 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: The stripe on that put is a very long way down. 95 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: So I don't think there's a FED put anywhere nearby. UM. 96 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: And you know, the key driving here is inflation. I 97 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: don't think though, that central banks, whether it's the FED 98 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: or the ECB, are going to be putting too much 99 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: weight on the idea of a neutral rate right now. 100 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 1: And they're certainly not going to use spots inflation. So 101 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: spot inflation might be nine percent, but you know, five 102 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: year inflation expectations are more like four and a half. UM. 103 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 1: So I don't think that, you know, the central banks 104 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 1: know that their actions have lags and it takes time 105 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,799 Speaker 1: for those actions to feed through to the real economy. 106 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 1: They don't like to overshoot their conservative institutions by their nature, 107 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: and they're definitely not going to say, gee, inflation is 108 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,799 Speaker 1: nine percent. If I need real interest rates that there, 109 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna have to put them at nine. No, 110 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: they're not going to do that. Thanks so much, Thanks 111 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Mak Mudnarani, their co founder 112 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: of quant Insight, talking to us about UM what the 113 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: market drivers is all right. Greg Jarrett there with the 114 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business flash, Thanks very much for joining us. UM 115 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: gas matters to some extent right now, because it's a 116 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: long weekend most right, we've got Juneteenth coming up on Monday, UM, 117 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: and it's a new holiday and important holiday, especially as 118 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: we UH celebrate and value diversity, hopefully more UM than 119 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: we have be before. Kim Crowder joins us right now, 120 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: founder and see of Kim Crowder Consulting UM and Kim, 121 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: let's talk first of all about what companies UM should 122 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: do to avoid making a mistake. I mean, obviously you're 123 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: giving employees the day off, but you're also sometimes holding 124 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: um events, or allowing employees to celebrate in the way 125 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: that they want. We had a really cool poetry reading 126 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: in the in the cafeteria area here a couple of 127 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: days ago. What what are you hearing about? Yeah? I 128 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: think the biggest thing that organizations can think about when 129 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: figuring out how to celebrate Juneteenth is how are they 130 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: doing this beyond just the day? Right? Letting folks off 131 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: is great, um all, so you know, providing information around 132 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: what June tenth was that education pieces always great, but 133 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: also what are they looking at around things like pay equity, 134 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: What does that look like? Around leadership? Are they providing 135 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: opportunities for leadership and mentorship for team members? What does 136 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: visibility look like around celebration for visibility around certain projects, 137 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: but also visibility around wins for team members? So how 138 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: are they looking at this three and sixty five days 139 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 1: of the year instead of just sort of this one holiday, 140 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: one time, you know, in all the twelve months. One 141 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: thing that's really interesting is, you know, we look very 142 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: closely here at the e O one data. That's the 143 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: data that really disclosures how companies are doing on diversity 144 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: and inclusion goals when it comes to their own ranks 145 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: and it's choppy. It's really choppy. There's some companies that 146 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: have actually regressed. I'm wondering, you know, what's the push 147 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: to for companies to really renew the promises they've made 148 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: in terms of achieving equity. Yeah, I think the biggest 149 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: thing is looking at retention internal rates. What we find 150 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: is when we're working with the organization that retention rates are, 151 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: it can be low, particularly when we start to look 152 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: at folks wore from historically ignore backgrounds, whether they be 153 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: you know, oftentimes their black employees are cycling out really quickly, 154 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: and that costs organizations money. Right. Um. Also you don't 155 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: get you know, there's a benefit to having someone on 156 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: the team with a different perspective but also different experiences 157 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: and different approaches to the work. And so workplaces are 158 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 1: losing out on that when they're not keeping those team 159 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,359 Speaker 1: members in place, but also not engaging those team members 160 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: or providing opportunities for them to move up. Because despite 161 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: what organizations think, folks have options. Especially right now, you know, 162 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: we're still in the midst of the great resignation. Um. 163 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: If you follow any HR facebook uh you know facebook page, 164 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: you know that HR is still looking to keep people 165 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: on or even to bring people on. And so it 166 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: really is important that organizations realize that it is sort 167 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: of you know, no longer sort of here's this job. 168 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: You should be so grateful, But employees are really pushing 169 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 1: back and saying, I wouldn't been a workplace where I'm valued. 170 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: I want to be seen, but not only that, I 171 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: want to be paid. Well, I'm gonna have the opportunity 172 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: to move forward. And so that's that's the approach that 173 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: organizations should be taken at this point. So that's what 174 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: organizations should do in terms of hiring their employees, looking 175 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: UH to diversify their workforce and treat those people right, 176 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: treat them equally UM. But there's more right, especially for 177 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: bigger companies that have UM vendors that have third party relationships, 178 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: they can look to work with black owned businesses, for example, 179 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: or they can look to give contracts to UM minority 180 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: run businesses. Right, that's absolutely right. And also what I 181 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: would love for organizations as they're doing that is to 182 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: not just go with the same few that always get 183 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: the opportunity to actively look for partners who they have 184 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: not necessarily engaged with. Also actively look to make sure 185 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: that they're paying them equitably. Are they paying them the 186 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: same way that they would pay a non black owned business. UM, 187 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,839 Speaker 1: Are they making sure that in their expectations that they're fair. 188 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: One of the things that we see, particularly with job descriptions, 189 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,239 Speaker 1: and so I'm gonna make a parallel here with job descriptions, 190 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: uh that black women typically are more harshly UM give 191 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: received harsher criticism and job performance reviews. And if that's 192 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: the case, is that translating into the way that they 193 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: are working with vendors where that that sort of um 194 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: natural look is more Uh, it comes with more criticizing, UM, 195 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: it comes with more expectations that wouldn't be necessarily UM 196 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: looked for and non black owned businesses. And so this 197 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: really is a holistic viewpoint in the way that organizations 198 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 1: can really move this forward. But the goal is Black liberation, 199 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: and so in that theations should be looking to say, 200 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: how can we continuously create and create opportunities and to 201 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: move forward black liberation, including the type of organizations that 202 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: we partner with. Where we put our money is what 203 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: communities are we celebrating on a regular basis. If we 204 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: have lobbyists, what are we asking them to look for 205 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: and watching and so all of those ways the organizations 206 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: can really make this tactful. But I feel like we 207 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 1: may have lost him there. Did the line drop? I 208 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: think the line may have dropped, you know, Nally. I 209 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: think the interesting thing is, of course, for June tenth, 210 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: we're celebrating, um, the freedom of of black people in America, 211 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: that the end of slavery, UM, and of course black 212 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: liberation and equality should be goals. But when you practice uh, 213 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 1: you know, these kind of diversity and inclusion UM ethics, 214 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: you also raise your own organization financially. You also increase 215 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: your revenue growth. You also can increase profitability. Do we 216 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: have him back? Can you know? For for selfish business 217 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: leaders out there, UM, this is about more than just 218 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: doing the right thing right you You become a better business. 219 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: You make more money for yourself and for your shareholders, 220 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: your stakeholders if you if you practice these diversity and 221 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: inclusion techniques correctly, you do One thing that I really 222 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: try hard not to do is to focus on that 223 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: revenue piece. And I'm going to tell you why. When 224 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: we think about why June tenth was in place, it 225 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: was because of black labor being used in ways that 226 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: were um inequitable, being used in ways that were unfair 227 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: and basically with prossibility right, it was based on capitalism, 228 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 1: and so I tried to move away from seeing it's 229 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: from providing that viewpoint for organizations as to why this 230 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: is the right thing to do, to say, hey, you 231 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 1: can make more money if you just use black people 232 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 1: this certain way. I really like to focus on, you know, 233 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 1: what are the things that go beyond that again and 234 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 1: the innovation piece, what are ways that you should be 235 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: looking at that the moral of your organization in totality, 236 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 1: what are some ways where you might be missing out 237 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: on having a great leader in place that could really 238 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 1: turn the organization around, but because they're not given that opportunity, 239 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: they can't do So, how do you keep employees in place? 240 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: Because now that does cost you money, right to make 241 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: sure that employees are in place. And so that is 242 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: where we really like to focus beyond this idea of 243 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: you could make more money if you treated people people better. 244 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: That could be a byproduct, but it's bigger than that, 245 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: all right, Kim, great to have you and thanks so 246 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Kim Crowder their founder and CEO 247 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: of Kim Crowder Consulting certified d e I and six 248 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: Sigma Leadership CEO Lyle Honba joins us right now a 249 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: partner with Granted Group Advisers, to talk about what we 250 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: should be um doing in terms of um our investments. 251 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: Have we gone far enough? Lyle, do you think at 252 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: this point that, especially if you have a long enough window, 253 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: you should start buying? You know, great question, Thanks for 254 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: having me. Yeah, listen, I think you know everything's about valuation, valuation, valuations, 255 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: So to your point, you know, just to give you 256 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: a little history, U two thousand two, we traded in 257 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: a recession at eleven times forward numbers, and then back 258 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: in we were trading also at eleven times forward numbers. 259 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 1: Right now we're trading at about fourteen times forward numbers, 260 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: which is historically below the long term average of fifteen 261 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: and well well below the seventeen and a half average 262 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: of the last ten years. So I think it's a 263 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: really it is a time to start looking and start 264 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 1: taking things around. We personally don't believe that we're going 265 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: to be in a recession. The valuations in the market 266 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: are accurately predicted a slowdown the market. Since we're trading 267 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: at fourteen times numbers, So I think it's time to 268 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: start dipping the toe. And I wouldn't go full more, 269 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: but I would definitely start looking at you know, like 270 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 1: the financials and uh some of these other uh, you know, 271 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: sectors that have been really just disserrated beyond where they 272 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: should be. There's the valuations, some valuations in certain stocks. 273 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: Talk more about that because you know, on one hand, 274 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: if you got into the market now and the market 275 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 1: faces for the decline, you face a loss. But if 276 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: you don't start dipping your foot in, you know are 277 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: also works very closely with Bloomberg for Masters of Business 278 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: is Barry Riddholt, and he makes the point that a 279 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: lot of investors don't get back in at the right 280 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: time and therefore lose a lot of money that way, 281 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: they get back in a too high a price. So 282 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: talk about that kind of issue that investors face here. 283 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: And you know, to what extent do you face a 284 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: risk of not getting back in at this point? Yeah, 285 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: I think if you have a long term view, and 286 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: I wouldn't dip your you know, your foot and I 287 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: would dip a toe in, right, So I think I would. 288 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: I would absolutely if if investors don't go back in, 289 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: it's a they will be very sorry a few years 290 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: from now. Right, So those people who are just indiscriminated 291 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: selling now, I think are going to be upset in 292 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: in a couple of years. Now. Stock market is a 293 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: long term gain. It's it's not not a short term price. 294 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: You know. We we actually are fiduciaries to UH uh 295 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: to four owing case, and we've noticed people are cutting 296 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: back on their contributions to offset so they have the 297 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 1: cash flow to pay for higher gas prices. And to 298 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: your point, they're going to miss out on UH. They 299 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: won't get back in right away, and they're gonna miss 300 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: out on, I think on some pretty good prices. Yeah. 301 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: John Author has had a piece today pointing out that UM, 302 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 1: even if you'd gone back into the market just two 303 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers UM right now, 304 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: you'd be looking at four hundred and forty games, right, 305 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: because there was still a long way to go at 306 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 1: that point. I think markets were only down twenty five 307 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 1: or thirty percent, and we ended up down at the 308 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 1: end of it all. But it's difficult to time the bottom. 309 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: I mean, even the best investors get burned trying to 310 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: do that, so, um, what what kind of valuations do 311 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 1: you think we should be seeing longer term? Lyle? What's 312 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 1: normal that's a great and what's normals fifteen into sixteen? 313 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: I also know we also think that, uh, you knows, 314 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: the ten year bond yield will is pretty much maxed 315 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 1: out here for the short term. It's already actually anticipated everything. 316 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: And the reason why that's important for your listeners is 317 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: that it'll sort of helps dictate the valuation. Right, So 318 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 1: if we think that this is sort of tapped out 319 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 1: here for the short term, you know, a valuation of fifteen, 320 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: sixteen or even sixteen and a half could be a 321 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: good a good valuation point. But we're trading at fourteen, 322 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: So I think there's some real upside here. You know, 323 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: if my friend dropping go little bit cred swist says 324 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: that we're gonna have seven point five percent predicted earnings growth, well, 325 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 1: if we have seven point five predicted earnings uh increase 326 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: for companies and we're trading at a real slow down level, 327 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 1: you know, I think it's it's it's a good time 328 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 1: all right, Lyle, thanks so much for joining us. Lyle Hamba, 329 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: their partner at Grand Group Advisers, talking to us about UM, 330 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: the point we are where we are in these markets now, UM, 331 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: we are going to focus on uh, something that one 332 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: of my producers put together, and I'm pretty impressed. Travel 333 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: is finally bouncing back from the pandemic. Tourist destinations took 334 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: a big hit over the past two years, but exclusive, 335 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 1: upscale destinations are still doing fine. And when it comes 336 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: to real estate, perhaps no destination has been as resilient 337 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: as the Island of Turks and Caicos. Bloomberg's Eric Mallow 338 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: tells us more in this report, there's a lot to 339 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 1: like about the white sand beaches and clear waters of 340 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,439 Speaker 1: Turks and Caicos. The likes of Christie Brinkley, Keith Richards, 341 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: and Bruce Willis have owned properties there, and now more 342 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: people are getting in on the action. We've had fairly 343 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 1: consistent growth and in en obviously that reached an apex 344 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: kicked in and we virtually doubled the kind of numbers 345 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: that we had. In twenty nineteen, after years of steady growth, 346 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 1: the island's real estate sales increased one hundred and fifty 347 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: eight percent and condominium sales nearly tripled, massive jumps that 348 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: portend another strong year in two, So what's driving the growth. 349 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: Grace Bay Resorts CEO Mark Durleyot points to a few things. 350 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: All of our properties are residential resort hotels. We're able 351 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: to sustain our tourism product year round and also brand 352 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: these properties as stillbone hotels, and it makes the customer 353 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: who's not a buyer of residential makes them comfortable on 354 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: the tourism side. So there's two markets happening at the 355 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 1: same time, ownership and those who are just coming as 356 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: a tourist. Southby's Nina seegin Thaler was the listing agent 357 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: when Bruce Willis sold his property on the island. She 358 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 1: tells me the environments comfortable for visitors. In many ways, 359 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: it is an extension of the US. On the other hand, 360 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 1: it is a British overseas territory. So it's just a 361 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,159 Speaker 1: wonderful combination. We used the US dollar, English is the 362 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: spoken language, the only correctives. We drive on the left 363 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 1: side of the road. And the tax component opens up 364 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: more opportunity for investment. We have a one time tax 365 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: that table upon purchases. It's called a stamp duty. And 366 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: then we have import duties and you know, their local 367 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 1: business license fees and work permits, feeds and accommodations taxes, 368 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 1: but on property on an ongoing basis, you do not 369 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: have a property tax yet. Nina and Mark have high 370 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: expectations for Turks and Caicos real estate market in two. 371 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 1: But how might luxury real estate properties hold up in 372 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: an inflationary environment where interest rates are rising the housing 373 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 1: market shifting here in the US, US new home sales 374 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 1: recently plunged to its lowest points since the start of 375 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: the pandemic, and interest rates and inflation are slowing the 376 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: economy and squeezing a lot of buyers out of homes. 377 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: I think there's becoming a bay economic divide with the 378 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: high and the low, and the high just keeps getting 379 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: higher and the wealdy keeps getting wealthier. And I think 380 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 1: that's what we're seeing that fall out in the luxury market. 381 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: Correy sass Hour is an associate real estate agent in 382 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: another top luxury market, Westchester County. She tells me buyers 383 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: were moving quickly to start the year, but she noticed 384 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: things started to slow a bit in April, one of 385 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: the most popular times for showings in the area. I 386 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: think people feel like they're getting hit from every direction, 387 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: from gas to furniture to their kids classes. And at 388 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: some point, if you're not making enough to subsidize the inflation, 389 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: then that's going to prevent people from be able to 390 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: afford the monthly that they need to pay. Even if 391 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: buying word of slow In Turks and Caicos, property owners 392 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 1: can supplement their income. Here's Mark Durley out in, the 393 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: CEO of Grace Bay Resorts. Once again, we have this 394 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: perpetual tourism market that helps to prop up all of 395 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 1: these single family homes because if there is a void 396 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: in the residential investment market, which we had in two 397 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 1: thousand and eight to twelve, the reason it didn't freefall 398 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: is those owners were able to rely on the tourism 399 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 1: market to continue to help support economically the cost of ownership. 400 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: Nina segn Thaller of Southebyes says that's pretty common. Most 401 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: owners do not spend the entire years here. During the 402 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: time that they're not here, it's really nice to be 403 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 1: able to offset the operating costs with the rental of 404 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: a property. Dream Hotel Group CEO J Stein tells Bloomberg 405 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 1: he expects a surgeon travel this year, which should give 406 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: property owners a lot of opportunity to rental. Leisure is 407 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: not only back, it's it's stronger than it ever was 408 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 1: because what we call leisure people traveling from business and 409 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: leisure that a lot of them are working remotely anyway. 410 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: So we used to just go work for a weekend. 411 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: Now you can go for Florida's and still work on 412 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: a couple of those days. So the leisure is actually 413 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: stronger than it ever was, more than just back. And 414 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 1: there's even a question of buying wood slow in a 415 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,439 Speaker 1: place like Turks and Caicos. Sass Hour points out that 416 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,959 Speaker 1: in her experience, many people looking to buy luxury property 417 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: usually are able to There's more luxury buyers now than 418 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: ever before. I think if you asked them in eighteen 419 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: to nineteen and fifteen to sixteen, what was the trajectory, 420 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 1: how many luxury sales were there, how many were the 421 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: d's on the market, or however they kind of want 422 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: to look at it, I think you'll see a very 423 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: similar situation. While there are pressures all over the U. S. 424 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 1: House market, Turks and Kikos has shown it was able 425 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: to weather the economic storm of COVID and with its 426 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: limited supply, broad appeal and consistent growth. It's once again 427 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: poised to weather economic pressures. In two for Bloomberg News 428 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 1: in New York. I'm Eric Mollow. Eric Mallow, who produces 429 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: this show and does a fantastic job of it every day. 430 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: Somehow found the time to put together that package on 431 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 1: turks and Kikos. Have you been Shinali? Maybe that's what's next. 432 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: That should be what's next for us for sure. Thanks 433 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,719 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 434 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 435 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at 436 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. Pen On fal Sweeney I'm on Twitter at 437 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us 438 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio