1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:02,480 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. This is your UFC 3 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 2: two seventy three betting preview. Brendan glas Sheen with the 4 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: Action Network see writer Sean Zarillo and former professional MMA fighter, 5 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: MMA analyst Billy Ward. Good to be back this week 6 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: after a one week hiatus because of the scheduling in UFC. 7 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: UFC two to seventy. 8 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: Three, available on pay per view, takes us down to Florida, 9 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: VI Star Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. 10 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: Thirteen fight six on the main card, seven prelimbs. 11 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: We won't get to every fight, but we're going to 12 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: break down everything from a betting perspective. 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: The guys have their fight of the night. 14 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 2: We'll get their picks on that underdog, plays, favorite props, 15 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: a look at the daily fantasy angles and best bets. 16 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: First, we've got two huge fights to break down. 17 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 2: The main event Alexander Volkanovsky, he's the heavy favorite against 18 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 2: Chan Sung Jung. They're about the same size coming in. 19 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,119 Speaker 2: Volkanovsky the featherweight champion. He's got the edge in significant striking. 20 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 2: Then you got the Korean zombie and Jung grappling has 21 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 2: an upside. Sean Zarrillo. How are you approaching this fight 22 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: from a betting perspective. 23 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 3: Sir, Yeah, Korean zombie also walks out to his zombie 24 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 3: by the cranberry, so I probably give him ten percent 25 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 3: and implied win probability off of that alone. Excellent walkout song. 26 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,199 Speaker 3: I think Volkanovsky's finishing upside here is getting a little 27 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 3: bit underrated relative to his previous fights. He's had some 28 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: absolute wars and hasn't managed to finish. Probably should have 29 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 3: had a finish over Brian or Tega. I think that 30 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 3: fight could have been stopped multiple times, or take his 31 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 3: fight corner, probably should have thrown him as how now, 32 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 3: I don't really see Jung winning minutes here, especially down 33 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 3: the stretch. Volkanovsky is an excellent minute winner. Doesn't win 34 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 3: them by wide margins to edge them out, but he 35 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: wins minutes very consistently. Excellent movement, really good at fighting. 36 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 3: The hands, just does a lot of things to sort 37 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 3: of mix up your brain, confuse you make make you 38 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 3: think about different things, and. 39 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 4: As you're moving he'll hit you. 40 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 3: He's gonna be able to kick the leg all day 41 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: against Jung, gonna chew up that leg early and often. 42 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 3: I expect Jung to try to pressure Bulk might actually 43 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:24,839 Speaker 3: be fighting off the back foot, but he can fight 44 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 3: moving forward moving backwards. Jung probably needs a finish here 45 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 3: to win. I gave him fifteen percent of his wing 46 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 3: condition by decision eighty five percent inside the distance, So 47 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 3: in my opinion, the fight ten inside the distance should 48 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 3: be closer to a coin flip. Jung by Ko should 49 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 3: be closer to nine to one, and Jung inside the 50 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 3: distance should be closer to six to one. I think, 51 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 3: if you want to get crazy with Young, I'm not 52 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 3: really interested in the money line. Maybe if it got 53 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 3: up to plus six hundred, I would take his inside 54 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 3: the distance prop at around seven to one, and i'd 55 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: take his knockout prop a ten to one, and I 56 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 3: wouldn't bet the big But I think there's value on 57 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 3: both of those, just because I think that's how he 58 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 3: wins this fight. He probably has the submission grappling upside. 59 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 3: I think Volkanovski definitely has the wrestling to take him down, 60 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 3: but I don't know if he wants to go there, 61 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 3: because he's probably gonna be more danger on the ground 62 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 3: than he might be on the feet. Volk recovers pretty 63 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 3: quickly when it gets hurt. But he gets hurt in 64 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 3: almost every fight, and Jung hits very hard, probably the 65 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 3: hardest hitory space. So I do see a finish potentially 66 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 3: occurring for Jung. I can see Volkanofski getting an attritionable 67 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: finish down the stretch. Like I said, I projected this 68 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 3: fight to end inside the distance, literally right around a 69 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 3: coin flip. I think actually I have it fifty two percent, 70 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 3: so forty eight percent inside the distance plus one ten 71 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 3: is where I'd make it. You can get plus one 72 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 3: twenty five out there, I think as high as under 73 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 3: four and a half at plus one thirty. That's that's 74 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 3: how I'd go about playing this fight. I see finishing 75 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: upside for both fighters, and I think given the fact 76 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 3: that the Korean zombie nickname sort of you know, amplifies 77 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 3: what people think about his durability. But also Volkanovski's previous 78 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 3: fight's going to a decision, I think that's due for him, 79 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 3: and he's talked about wanting to get a finish here 80 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: just to elevate his pound for pound status. 81 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 2: Billy, when you assess Jung and what he's been through 82 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 2: in previous fights, if you had to bet it. How 83 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 2: are you going about the main event this week? 84 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I really like Sean's point about the nickname kind 85 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 5: of skewing people's perception on that. He was finished by 86 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 5: Yayir Rodriguez and Jose Aldo, both somewhat late in the fight. 87 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 5: I see Volkanovski doing a similar thing. The leg kicks 88 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 5: add up over time, just as Sean put at the 89 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:30,799 Speaker 5: additional stoppage, So that I think there is one fifty 90 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 5: right now for vulcanside the distance. 91 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 6: That's the only bet I'm comfortable making on this one. 92 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 6: The only other. 93 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 5: Angle I have is if John looks really good early 94 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 5: and we get a little bit better, if a live 95 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 5: line on Volkanovski, I might be hitting that too, because 96 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 5: he tends to be a little a little bit better cardio. 97 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 5: He doesn't guess himself out as much as John, and 98 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 5: he might wear. 99 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 6: Him down throughout time. 100 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 5: So if we see, you know, his line drop significantly, 101 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 5: I'm gonna hit that. But I'm not, you know, betting 102 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 5: laying the minut seven sixty or whatever we're seeing for 103 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 5: him now. 104 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 3: I mean he's gonna land. If this goes twenty five minutes, 105 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 3: he's gonna land two hundred strikes on. 106 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 4: Young's very hittable. 107 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 3: This might just be a twenty five minute war where 108 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 3: nobody goes down and you're like, ugh, that probably should 109 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 3: have cash. But I think based on the pace of 110 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 3: the fight it's pretty likely that somebody gets hurt here. 111 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: Let's move on to the bantamweight. 112 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 2: It's a rematch folks from March sixth at UFC two 113 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 2: fifty nine. You've got al Jamaine Sterling against Peter Yan, 114 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: the champion. Sterling he won on disqualification. He's been facing 115 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 2: a lot of criticism. He's been outspoken about it. He 116 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 2: was just speaking I think as early as yesterday or 117 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,239 Speaker 2: earlier this morning about you know, everything he's been hearing 118 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 2: throughout the course of the week. So it's out there, 119 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 2: that's for sure. The funk Master said this week. He 120 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,679 Speaker 2: says he sees himself climbing Peter Yan's back. 121 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: Like a spider monkey. 122 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 2: Wow, Billy, we'll go to you first here. You're actually 123 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 2: into Sterling, despite the fact that it was disqualification. You feel, 124 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 2: I guess, based on your assessment before we got going here, 125 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 2: you feel as if like he was worthy of being 126 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 2: named champion, and you think he's riding a little momentum 127 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 2: coming in. 128 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 5: I don't want to put it that strong, but I 129 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 5: do think at fair enough the plus three seventy you 130 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 5: can get on him. 131 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 6: Now that's a bit too long. You know. 132 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 5: The popular conception out there is that Yan just dominated 133 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 5: and he was, you know, about to finish him and 134 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 5: then need him in the head and got the just qualification. 135 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 6: It was a lot closer fight than people think. 136 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 5: I think two of the judges had it too too 137 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 5: at the time it was stopped, so it really wasn't 138 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 5: like this one sided beat down and then the other 139 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 5: endle I'm looking at here is these Florida. 140 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 6: Judges are historically just terrible. 141 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 5: Like there was a fight last time there here that 142 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 5: one judge had at thirty twenty seven one way and 143 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 5: one had it the other way. So plus three seventy 144 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 5: could Sterling get kind of an undeserved decision here? I 145 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 5: don't think that's a crazy thing. So when we're getting 146 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 5: that kind of juice on it, I'm willing to sprinkle 147 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 5: a little bit on the theoretical champ. I don't know 148 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 5: how much people think he's the actual champ, but aljam 149 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 5: and Sterling being the current title holder, I think at 150 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 5: plus three seventy. 151 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 6: It's a pretty good line. 152 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: He's a champ with an asterisk in some way. 153 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: My dad Seanzrolo, how do you want to go about 154 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 2: betting the co made event Sterling von? 155 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, the paper tramp, as some people have put it, 156 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 3: big big, big odds adjustments from the first fight to 157 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 3: the second. Normally we don't see this draumatic odds adjustment 158 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 3: for a rematch, but there wouldn't have been a rematch 159 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 3: probably if Jan didn't get disqualified. I bet Sterling in 160 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 3: the first ride around Evans. In hindsight it was a 161 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 3: terrible bet. Also bet him around three fifty to win 162 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 3: by decision. He was competitive early, but Yon tends to 163 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 3: be a very slow starter and Sterling tends to be 164 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 3: a fast starter. Jan is a bit like Floyd Mayweather 165 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 3: in that he will give away early minutes to make 166 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 3: his reads and then pour it on you late. He's 167 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 3: another type of attritional fighter like Volkanovsky, and almost always 168 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 3: I look to bet Yon live after round one, in 169 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 3: round two and pre fight, I'll play his round four 170 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 3: and round five props. Just how he fights. He builds 171 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 3: as the fight goes. Sterling is a bit of a catch. 172 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 3: Twenty t here Now. I bet him in the first 173 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 3: fight because I thought he had the grappling upside, and 174 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 3: I thought he could outpoint Yon on volume at distance. 175 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 3: He outpointed him generally speaking for the first ten minutes 176 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 3: of the fight, which tends to happen in Yon's fights. 177 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 3: I believe he got knocked down to the first round, 178 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 3: which is why he lost the first round on two 179 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 3: of the three scorecards. Won the second round unanimously, but 180 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 3: it seemed pretty evident after the third round that he 181 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 3: was done. He was on his stole, looked completely exhausted. 182 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 3: He threw so many punches and kicks and spinning attacks, 183 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 3: was falling down, attempted seventeen takedowns. Jan's defensive grappling was 184 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 3: awesome in that fight, kept tripping Sterling. He actually looked 185 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 3: like the better grappler. Maybe now the whole thing about 186 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 3: Sterling taking his back being a spider monkey. Yeah, he 187 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 3: could do what he did Corey Sanae again if he 188 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 3: gets his back work up along the fence, backpack him 189 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 3: choke him out. Sure that upside's still there, absolutely, I 190 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 3: think it's less likely than it was the first time around. 191 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 3: Jan probably looked like in hindsight, like a minus three 192 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 3: hundred favorite given how that first fight played out, So 193 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 3: I think the line of us for the money line 194 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 3: might be right, but we've also seen an adjustment for 195 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 3: the fight end inside the distance. It was minus one 196 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 3: fifty last time. Now it's even money. I'm fine taking that. Sterling, 197 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 3: as I said, bit of a catch twenty two. He 198 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 3: can either try to wrestle again and gas out, or 199 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 3: he could stay at range, try to out point Yon 200 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 3: and probably lose on power optics. I think he'll land 201 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,319 Speaker 3: more volume, but Yon lands the more significant strikes, and 202 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 3: it's pretty evident Sterling doesn't have a ton of power 203 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 3: coming back. He's just kind of touching you and moving, 204 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 3: touching you and moving. So he can win on optics 205 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 3: certainly and keep this fight closer. And it's tough to 206 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 3: look really good against him because he's he's the funk Master, 207 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 3: he's really awkward. He does a lot of different things 208 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 3: that it's not like Corey sanhagen Yan where it's just 209 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 3: going to be a pure kickboxing match and Yon's going 210 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 3: to look phenomenal because he can do whatever he wants kickboxing. 211 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,239 Speaker 3: But if you're going to mix in different techniques and styles, 212 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 3: it's going to make the fight look closer optically than 213 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 3: it should be. So I think this line is blown 214 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 3: out of proportion. I agree with Billy, but I prefer 215 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 3: the adjustment on the fight hand inside the distance. I 216 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 3: still think that's submission ups for Sterling is there, and 217 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 3: I still think the knockout upside is certainly there for y'all. 218 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 3: If anything, Sterling looks pretty bad down the stretch in 219 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 3: that fight. Now. He also mentioned feeling like terrible before 220 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 3: that fight, and since then he's had a bad neck 221 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 3: injury bat like big neck surgery. I think that's the 222 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 3: thing that people aren't talking about enough. This guy had 223 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 3: like a career threatening neck injury, which is what's holding 224 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 3: me off of betting him. But that that does lend 225 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 3: itself more to the finishing up side of the fight. 226 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 2: I was just gonna mention that, and Billy, if you 227 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 2: have a thought on it. He did say this week, Sterling, 228 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 2: he mentioned that you know his body, he's had difficulty 229 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 2: trying to figure out if his body is going to cooperate. 230 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 1: Does that concern you at all? 231 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 2: Because I know you did mention, you mentioned the judges, 232 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 2: and you would sprinkle bit on Sterling. 233 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: Does that come to mind at all. 234 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's hard to say exactly what's going on with that, 235 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 5: because I think he had the injury going into the 236 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 5: last fight. It wasn't just caused by the knee or 237 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 5: anything like that. So there's the angle that maybe he's 238 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 5: actually healthier than he was going into that one. But 239 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 5: then on the other side, you know, usually don't hear 240 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 5: guys looking better after next surgery, you know, oh you honestly, 241 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 5: you don't see guys continue to fight after a next 242 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 5: surgery almost ever. So it's a bit concerning, But it's 243 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 5: just too much of an adjustment. You know, Sean pointed 244 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 5: out as close to even money before. Now we're getting 245 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 5: almost four to one. There's there's a few ways that 246 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 5: can go, right. I don't love it, but yeah, he. 247 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 3: Might have even closed as a favorite in some spots 248 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 3: last time. I mean, it's a it's a significant odds adjustment, 249 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 3: But I do think it reflects how the fight played 250 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 3: out down the stretch. Just you can't assume that the 251 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 3: first fight is gonna look like the second fight. This 252 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 3: may be completely different. Maybe Sterling's more conservative and just 253 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 3: tries to like run away from him and touch him 254 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 3: and run away. 255 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 2: Let's move on now to our favorite underdog picks for 256 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 2: UFC two seventy three. 257 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 6: Again. 258 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 2: It's in Jacksonville this week and you can catch it 259 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 2: on pay per view also ESPN plus Shonzarella. How about 260 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 2: you first favorite underdog play. 261 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 3: Gonna Go plus money Heavu eight Marcine Taiboura plus one 262 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 3: thirty five against Biggie Boy Jerzina Rosenstrike. I'm not a 263 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 3: fan of rosen Strike in general. The guys had nine 264 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 3: fights in the UFC. I think he's won three rounds 265 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 3: and he hasn't won a single round unanimously. All of 266 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 3: his margins are very close. He backs up, tries to 267 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 3: counter punch, He's gonna get out volumed in every fight. 268 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 3: He just will land the biggest shot of the round 269 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 3: if he lands it, but he rarely lets his hands go. 270 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 3: Ty Burrow very reliable to grapple, and he has one 271 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 3: hundred percent of the grappling upside in this fight. So 272 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 3: generally speaking, when I have a fighter with all of 273 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 3: the grappling upside a plus money, I'm going to bet 274 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 3: them because it's much easier to look like a big 275 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: favorite in hindsight grappling than it is in a striking 276 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 3: matchup the levels and grappling are wider than they are striking. 277 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 3: I think he's likely to win the ugliest possible version 278 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 3: of this fight just holding rosen Strike up against the 279 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 3: cage for fifteen minutes, kind of like he did with Volkov. 280 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 3: He lost the Volcov fight because once they separated, he 281 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 3: couldn't keep up on volume. But rosen Strike's not going 282 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 3: to throw anything, so I think he can get on 283 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 3: top of rosen Strike and finish him. I think he 284 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 3: can hold him up against the cage, and I think 285 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 3: when they're striking, he could be relatively competitive. So other 286 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 3: than a rosen to Strike knockout, I don't really see 287 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 3: how he wins this fight. I didn't technically project value 288 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 3: on it, but logically I don't really see how you 289 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 3: get him past forty forty five percent here. 290 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, takedown defense jumps out and then the takedown average 291 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 2: per fifteen minutes. Pretty pretty striking numbers for ty Burrow, No, 292 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 2: no question, Billy Ward your favorite underdog, Yeah, real quick. 293 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 6: I'm definitely with Sean on that one. 294 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 5: There's there's lucky punches, but there's not really such a 295 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,719 Speaker 5: thing as a lucky takedown. Or a lucky armbar or 296 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 5: anything like that. So I'll take the grappler as well. 297 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 5: But I'm looking at Josh Fremed. He's a UFC newcomer 298 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 5: coming in at plus one seventy against Anthony Hernandez. It's 299 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 5: really hard to handicap Hernandez because he's looked really, really 300 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 5: good submitting Udolfo Vieira and then he gets submitted by 301 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,079 Speaker 5: Marcus Perez, the guy who lost all of his other 302 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 5: fights and got cut. But what we're seeing with frehim 303 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 5: is he's stepping in on somewhat short notice with all 304 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 5: that middleweight shuffling we saw on this card, but he 305 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 5: was a guy who had a UFC contract before. I 306 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 5: think when you see a newcomer with a plus one 307 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 5: seventy line, if he's some guy who's stepping in as 308 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 5: a last minute replacement who probably wouldn't be in the 309 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 5: UFC otherwise, that makes sense. This is guy who want 310 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 5: to fight on the looking for a fight series. He 311 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 5: already had a contract, so he was booked. I think 312 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 5: he's got a little bit of a grappling upside here. 313 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 5: Even though Hernandez had some good submissions and he four 314 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,599 Speaker 5: inches taller and a lot bigger, So I like his 315 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 5: strikling too. I think the grappling is you know, maybe 316 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 5: a coin flip at worse. But then I've got fremd 317 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 5: is the better striker, and I don't think Hernandez is 318 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 5: big enough for the division. He's you know, six foot, 319 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 5: relatively slender. He kind of got like a Kevin Holland 320 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 5: type thing going on where he might have a lot 321 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 5: more success at one seventy and Frem's a pretty big dude, 322 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 5: So plus one seventy that's where I'm going. 323 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 3: Hernandez the epitome of a guy you bet at plus 324 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 3: money and do not touch at chieves. Just could never 325 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 3: choose some fluffy Hernandez. That is a that's a criminal 326 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 3: betting act. 327 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: Let's go to you, Uh, let's go to your guys. 328 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 2: Fight of the night this week he got Comzat Shemaia 329 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: of he's the eleventh ranked fighter undefeated, taking on Gilbert Burns. 330 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: Seeing him at plus four hundred here on bet MGM 331 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 2: Shemaya of the heavy favorite Sean, how would you? 332 00:14:58,640 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 6: Uh? 333 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 2: First off, like, why do you so? How does this 334 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 2: fight jump out to you? And how are you playing it? 335 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 3: I mean, Hamzad is just the most interesting man in 336 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 3: MMA right now. Yeah, complete mystery largely, We just he's 337 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 3: been so okay. So this guy's been so good that 338 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 3: people are penalizing him for efficiency. Goes out dominates ah, 339 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 3: but we haven't seen him do this in that Yeah, 340 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 3: because he's too good. Now, if you put Gilbert Burns 341 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 3: in there with Reese McKee, or if you put him 342 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 3: in there with John Phillips right now, he probably does 343 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 3: something similar to what hamza did. So there's there's a 344 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 3: non zero chance that Hamzad is the goat and he's 345 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 3: just gonna like one punch his way to the title. 346 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 4: There's a non zero chance that. 347 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 3: It's more likely he's just the top three guy who 348 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 3: was top three when he came into the UFC. But 349 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 3: normally guys don't come into the UFC at that level. 350 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 3: They developed it better. But he was like a finished 351 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 3: product going against these non ranked fighters and dominating them. 352 00:15:57,800 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 4: But what he did a lead Jieng. 353 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 3: Lang Oh, but he does to anybody who's a ranked 354 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 3: fighter in the UFC that was a little bit ridiculous. 355 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 3: Slammed him, talking to Dana, choked him out. Hamzat seems 356 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 3: to be a little bit different physically, strength, wise, mentality wise. 357 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 3: The pace that he keeps from the moment the fight 358 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 3: starts until the moment the fight ends is unlike anything 359 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 3: we've almost ever seen. But there's so many question marks 360 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 3: about him. What happens if he gets hit, what happens 361 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 3: if he gets extended? What does it look like when 362 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 3: he's striking it range. 363 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 4: For extended periods? 364 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 3: And Gilbert Burns has a lot of finishing upside. In general, 365 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 3: he hits like an absolute truck. He knocked Kamaro Usman 366 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 3: down and almost finished him in the first round ADCC 367 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 3: submission Grappling Champion, completely lethal. If this fight hits the mat, 368 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 3: I do expect that Hamzat can actually take him down 369 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 3: with relative ease. The question is does he get stuck 370 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 3: in Burns guard or does he get on on his hip, 371 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 3: slam him and get immediately the side control. I think 372 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 3: better path to victory is to counter wrestle, keep this 373 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 3: fight on the feet and strike. We haven't seen a 374 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 3: ton of his striking, but I've seen him kick. His kicks, 375 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 3: his jump knees look pretty lethal. We've seen some limited striking. 376 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 3: One punched Gerald Miershart and Mirrorshart said he was like 377 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 3: he doesn't remember the entire fight week some other regional 378 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 3: tape too, you know, moving his head, throwing a beautiful uppercut. 379 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 4: Like this guy's striking is pretty advanced. He knows what 380 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 4: he's doing, and Burns is kind of chitty. 381 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,199 Speaker 3: And Burns doesn't have great cardio either, So while Burns 382 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 3: is lethal, he's a bit of a glass cannon as well. 383 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 3: This fight is listed around minus two fifty to end 384 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 3: inside the distance. I made it closer to minus three fifteen. 385 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 3: I actually laid the juice here on the fight to 386 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 3: end inside the distance at minus two fifty. I have 387 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 3: a hard time seeing this fight getting past the first 388 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 3: seven and a half minutes. I think the under one 389 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 3: and a half of plus money's interesting, but I think 390 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 3: there's a chance that both of these guys are like 391 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 3: dying down the stretch and somebody's just gonna collapse. So 392 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 3: so this is a violent spot. This is a really 393 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 3: really fun fight. I hope they grapple because I want 394 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 3: to see what Hamzat's grappling looks like against an ADCC champion. 395 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 3: But I mean, if he gets Gilbert's back, it's not 396 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 3: gonna matter how good of a submission artist you are. 397 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 4: If if somebody has your back, so. 398 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 3: Hamzat, Uh, It's it's exciting to see him get get 399 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 3: a real, real. 400 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 4: Test here, and I think he's going to pass it. 401 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 2: Do you think, Billy, what's the best way to go 402 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 2: about coms up versus Burns? 403 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, so what I'm saying here is it's just a 404 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 5: giant step up for kam Zat. You know, Sean mentioned 405 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 5: Le jeng Ling, who's a solid fighter. But like, if 406 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 5: it weren't for Kamora Lusman, Gilbert Burns very well could still. 407 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 6: Be the welterweight champion right now. You know, Like I'd 408 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,360 Speaker 6: love to see Burns versus Colbing. We could really decide that. 409 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 5: But yeah, so what I think is that Burns is 410 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 5: able to survive at least through the first round. I'm 411 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 5: looking to bet the fight to start round too at 412 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 5: minus one seventy five. I could also see Kamzat looking 413 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 5: at this as an opportunity to get some more cage time, 414 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 5: to show that he can win minutes, to show that 415 00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 5: he can win striking exchanges. But I don't think he 416 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 5: just Malsham in twelve seconds or whatever like we've seen 417 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 5: him do before. 418 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 6: I see a lot of dirty boxing happening in this one. 419 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 5: If I was coms Out, I'd be looking to keep 420 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 5: him against the fence, keep him there, which might make 421 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 5: it a little bit more boring of a fight than 422 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 5: people are expecting, just because if he's trying to grind 423 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 5: him out and just slowly wear him down. And then 424 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 5: the other thing I really liked is if anyone's playing 425 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 5: prize picks, I like coms out under two point zero takedowns. 426 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 5: Nobody has ever gotten back up when comes Out's been 427 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 5: on top of him in a cage, like he can't 428 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 5: get more than one takedown in a round because nobody 429 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 5: gets back up. So it's probably likely that he ends 430 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 5: up with exactly too. But there's a lot more upside 431 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 5: on the winning side of that than there is on 432 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 5: the losing side, just because if he does decide to grapple, 433 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 5: Burns is going to be comfortable playing on the ground 434 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 5: with him. He's not going to try to get back up, 435 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 5: and comes Out certainly not going to let you back up. 436 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 6: So those are the two angles I'm playing with this one. 437 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 4: I really like that. 438 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 3: I think it's I think he's gonna finish with exactly two. 439 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 3: But yeah, I think the why being a two is 440 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 3: that's a little bit of a safe haven for a push. 441 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 5: If we could get that two point five, I'd be 442 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 5: so excited about that one. But yeah, he's not getting 443 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 5: more than two. I feel pretty comfortable saying yeah. 444 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us here. 445 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 2: In the Action Network podcast UFC two seventy three Betting Preview, 446 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 2: Brendan glass Sheen with the Action Network, Shan Zarrillo and 447 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 2: Billy Ward breaking down all things that are set to 448 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 2: go down in Florida. Let's move on to our favorite props, 449 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,719 Speaker 2: and of course we always encourage you to shop around 450 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 2: for those prop bets for UFC. Billy, we'll start with 451 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 2: you here your favorite prop for UFC two seventy three. 452 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at the opening. Fighter's Daniel Santos or 453 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 5: Julio rs At one thirty five. Santos is making his 454 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 5: UFC debut. He also hasn't. 455 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 6: Fought in like two and a half years, but I 456 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 6: went back and found some tape on him and he 457 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 6: is super aggressive. He comes out really hard. 458 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 5: He's got multiple wins by spinning back kick and he 459 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 5: can get these off in a phone booth. Normally you 460 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 5: see guys looking to throw that they've got to create space, 461 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 5: so I think he's able to put away Julio Rsa 462 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 5: and we're getting his inside the distance OIDs as high 463 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 5: as plus four thirty. You know, Rsea is a solid fighter, 464 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 5: but I don't see him as like a future contender 465 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 5: or a top rank guy. But I truly think Santos could 466 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 5: be one of the better one thirty five ers in 467 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 5: a couple of years. He's like a minie vanderl Silva 468 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 5: from back in the day, Like he comes out he's 469 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 5: just looking to x murder people. 470 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 6: So it's gonna be a super aggressive fight. 471 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 5: I think this one gets stopped and I think Santos 472 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 5: is the winner, so plus four thirty I'm definitely taking 473 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 5: that one. 474 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 3: Go ahead, Sean, Yeah, I just want to comment on 475 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 3: that fight real quick. That might be one of the 476 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 3: most exciting fights on the night, and it's the opener 477 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 3: on the card, so don't miss that fight. 478 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 4: It could be wild. 479 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 3: Santos is just like all spinning at tax He trains 480 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 3: with Charles Olavera, and you know those shoot the box 481 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 3: guys are very aggressive and very violent, so don't miss 482 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 3: that one. 483 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 4: It's gonna be a fun one. I'm gonna take. 484 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 3: Another violence prop Mackenzie Dern to went inside the distance 485 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 3: plus two hundred out there at MGM, she's plus two 486 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 3: fifty by submission as well. She could get a positional 487 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 3: TKO I suppose, so I generally bet the inside the 488 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,400 Speaker 3: distance odds, but this should be. 489 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 4: More in line with her money line. 490 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 3: I don't really get the odds of the screpancy between 491 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,640 Speaker 3: her money line and the finish prop. I don't really 492 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 3: give her much minute winning upside here against Torres. Who 493 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,199 Speaker 3: is gonna be the better striker. Dern is not just 494 00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 3: gonna if Durren gets takedowns, which she's not great at 495 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 3: getting takedowns, but she is a grappler, so she'll try 496 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 3: to pull guard, do whatever she can get to the fight. 497 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 6: To the mat. 498 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 3: She's going to finish this fight. Torres has never faced 499 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 3: the submission threat like this in her career, never face 500 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 3: the serious grappling threat. I'm pretty confident that there's major 501 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 3: levels in the BJJ if it hits the mat, and 502 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 3: I expect her and a finisher, so I don't see 503 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 3: during controlling her for fifteen minutes and winning a decision. 504 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 3: I think a finish is basically seventy five percent of 505 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 3: her wing condition and the market is telling you it's 506 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 3: like sixty percent, So happy about that gap. 507 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 2: Let's break down this fight the fight the weekend here 508 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 2: at UFC two seventy three. Let's break things down from 509 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 2: a DFS perspective. Billy, you've got the contest up. Now, 510 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 2: you've got your normal five fighters nine K or above. 511 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 2: You've got some mid tier pricing, a lot of guys 512 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 2: in the seven K eight K range. Your DFS breakdown 513 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 2: for UFC two to seventy three, please, Yeah. 514 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 5: So what's interesting is, like you said, we have about 515 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 5: the normal amount of fighters over nine thousand, but the 516 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 5: three at the top all look to be really really 517 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 5: strong plays because two of them have five round fights 518 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 5: and one of them is COMSIP. 519 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 6: So all of those look like fighters you're gonna want. 520 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 5: But it's almost impossible to have all three and then 521 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 5: make a lineup that doesn't use one of their opponents. 522 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 5: So I think what's gonna be a super popular strategy 523 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,160 Speaker 5: here is using two out of the three of them 524 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 5: and getting that one that you leave out right is 525 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,959 Speaker 5: going to be important. But I also think people are 526 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,440 Speaker 5: overlooking Ian Gary a little bit here at ninety two hundred. 527 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 6: He looks to be a real solid prospect. 528 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 5: It looks like they're trying to give him fights where 529 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 5: he looks good, and the ownership on. 530 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 6: Him is just going to be so much lower than 531 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 6: everyone else. 532 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 5: So I'm not super confident that he's going to be 533 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 5: in the optimal lineup, but I think the leverage there 534 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 5: is huge. But yeah, the big decision is gonna be 535 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 5: which of those top fighters do we fade and then 536 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 5: how do we play that? So Sean, do you have 537 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:44,880 Speaker 5: any thoughts on those three? 538 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I know Hamzad's the most likely to finish by odds, 539 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 3: which is why maybe just on that alone. 540 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 4: People are most likely to include him. 541 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 3: But it's the only three fight, three round fight in 542 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 3: the group, so if it does extend, not going to 543 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 3: score as many points. 544 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 4: He may tired and may not have a ton of 545 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 4: striking volume. 546 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 3: We said it's unlikely that Burns gets up and gets 547 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 3: up and gets up, so it's not like he's gonna 548 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 3: have a high volume of takedowns either. And he's the 549 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 3: most unproven guy of the bunch, so I think there's 550 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 3: any he might be the most owned frankly just unpopularity, 551 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 3: But yeah, I think take the guys from the five 552 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 3: round fights certainly. 553 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that makes sense and cons I think 554 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 5: the only one of those three that could win the 555 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 5: fight but not be in the optimal lineup where Yan 556 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 5: and Vulk just because it's five rounds. The lighter weight 557 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 5: classes have just so much more action usually that they're 558 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 5: almost always gonna make it. So I'd be comfortable if 559 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 5: you're not playing comes out and not playing Burns either. 560 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 5: I think any lineup without Vulker and you just need 561 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 5: their opponent because it's gonna go for so long and 562 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 5: there's gonna be so much action. 563 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,199 Speaker 2: Billy, it looks like too you're you're pretty willing to 564 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 2: so okay, So in theory, you're gonna stack up two 565 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 2: guys that are nine K or above, so your value plays. 566 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 2: You might not be able to get many guys in 567 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 2: that eight K range you're gonna but you're willing to 568 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 2: go take a deeper dive to find some value. 569 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, you're gonna have to kind of go stars and 570 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 5: scrubs here if you want two of those top guys. 571 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 5: But we mentioned I mentioned both from de Inn Santos. 572 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 5: Those are both under seventy five hundred. I like both 573 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,119 Speaker 5: of them as DFS picks. 574 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 6: Not really super comfortable with either. 575 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,639 Speaker 5: Of those guys in cash games because they're you know, 576 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 5: high variance offense. I really like Mark Madsen both for 577 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 5: cash and tournaments. Though you know, he's an Olympic silver 578 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 5: medalist and he's fighting a guy in vinc Pachelle, who 579 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 5: got taken down like seventy eight times or something in 580 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,959 Speaker 5: his last three fights. So even if Pachelle's able, I'm 581 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 5: obviously exaggerating, but even if Michelle's gonna win this fight, 582 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 5: he's probably gonna get taken down a bunch, and you 583 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 5: get five points for a takedown, so if he stacks 584 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 5: up seven or eight takedowns, he can probably be okay 585 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 5: even with the loss. 586 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 2: Sean, you have any other thoughts to add from a 587 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 2: daily Fantasy perspective here, Stirling Jung as potential plays. 588 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 3: There's a couple of under one and a half's on 589 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 3: the card. The heavyweight Olynic Vandera I could see being 590 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 3: very sloppy at points. Olantic can certainly finish him submission 591 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 3: round one. Olynics also sixty years old, vander Uck can 592 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:03,439 Speaker 3: knock him out, but Josh Friend and Alexander Fluffy or Nandez, 593 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 3: which Billy talked about already. That's a I believe a 594 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 3: middleweight about. I forgot what weight class that is, but 595 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 3: that is a lower weight class bout with a rare 596 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 3: under one and a half juice to the under minus 597 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 3: one fifties. So it's at those odds you almost have 598 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 3: to include one of those two guys in your lineup 599 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 3: based on the odds market alone. And neither of them 600 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 3: are big names, so I think there's a good chance 601 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 3: the ownership rates aren't too high. 602 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 6: It's just so hard to find the eighty seven hundred. 603 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 6: If you want the Fluffy side of. 604 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 3: That, absolutely yeah, I think I think Friend would be 605 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,880 Speaker 3: the you know, the underdog play there for sure, and 606 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 3: we already mentioned Fluffy's not a guy I want to 607 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,880 Speaker 3: back with my money or probably my DFS lineups either. 608 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 2: Okay, before we wrap, we always get best bets for UFC. 609 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 2: Let's go to Sean Zarrillo first. Your best bet for 610 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 2: UFC two seventy three. 611 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 3: I can't believe this is coming out of my mouth. 612 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,719 Speaker 3: I'm taking Mickey gall at plus one seventy against Mike Mallett. 613 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 3: I know Billy's laughing at me, So Mickey gall like 614 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 3: came out too the UFC scene to fight Cmpunk, and 615 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 3: he wasn't very good at the time, and he wasn't 616 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 3: very good after. I believe he got finished by Diego Sanchez, 617 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,199 Speaker 3: which is the worst look ever, considering it happened in 618 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 3: the twilight of Diego's career. But I tend to fade 619 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 3: guys coming off a Contender series, and I tend to 620 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 3: fade guys who are fast finishers, especially when they're going 621 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 3: against established UFC fighters and Mickey Galla believe it is 622 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 3: eight or nine UFC fights at this point. Mallet has 623 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 3: like three and a half minutes of fight time in 624 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 3: the past six or seven years. There's a lot of 625 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,880 Speaker 3: unknown about him, and what I have seen isn't particularly impressive. 626 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 3: He's grabbing submissions with no hooks in like low technique stuff. 627 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 3: Mickey is not the most durable guy, but I think 628 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 3: he can be competitive at minimum in the grappling here. 629 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 3: His striking is actually improved over the years, and he 630 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 3: recently went down to Sanford MMA, which is a top 631 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 3: camp in the sport, and I trust that he definitely 632 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 3: made improvements for this camp in this fight, so I 633 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 3: think just on price alone, you have to take a 634 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,400 Speaker 3: shot on Mickey here. I know it's not the type 635 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 3: of fighter. You don't want to fade bad fighters with 636 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 3: bad fighters generally speaking, but I think on the price alone, 637 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 3: this is probably coster to coin flip. I think I 638 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 3: made Mickey like plus one twenty, so plus one seventy. 639 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, you got about. 640 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: Him, Billy Ward best bet. 641 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 5: No, you know I laughed when he said it, but 642 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 5: I'm actually with you on it, Like, I don't know 643 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 5: why I've had this feeling all week. I've heard other 644 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 5: smart people say it it's just you don't like it. 645 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 5: But the one thing I want to point out, Mickey 646 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 5: is the younger fighter. It feels like he's been around 647 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 5: forever because he fought se him funk like eight years 648 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 5: ago or something, so there's no reason he couldn't be 649 00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 5: getting better more than his competition, especially when he's fighting 650 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 5: USC level guys. 651 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 6: And the other guys are you know, fighting in high 652 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 6: school gyms or whatever. 653 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 3: If this price was flipped, I might not have bat 654 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 3: it den I frankly, if it was like minus one 655 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 3: seventy for Mickey, I would have been like, yeah, that's 656 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 3: about right, but. 657 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 4: Not plus one seventy. 658 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 6: But yeah, I hate it. But I'm doing it tip 659 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 6: but I hate I love to do it right. 660 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 5: But no, I just mentioned him with the DFS section, 661 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 5: But I'm on Mark Madison here just on the takedown upside, 662 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 5: Like I'm a little nervous with the Florida judges that 663 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 5: are historically just boxing judges who don't really understand wrestling. 664 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 6: But vinc Pachelle has twenty five. 665 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 5: Percent takedown defense in the UFC, Like you never see 666 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 5: it that low for a guy who's decent. 667 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 6: And you know, Madsen's this older guy that got into 668 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 6: the sport. 669 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 5: He's actually younger than Pachelle and he's only been doing 670 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:25,960 Speaker 5: it two or three years, so I know he didn't 671 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 5: look great in his last fight. 672 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 6: But if we had to bet on one of these guys. 673 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 5: To be improving, it's definitely Madson. And I think his 674 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 5: kind of like one trick pony thing. It's not going 675 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 5: to take him to a title if he doesn't get 676 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 5: better at something else. But I think he's going to 677 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 5: beat Vink Pachelle level guys with just being super awesome 678 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 5: at one thing and we're getting him at plus money. 679 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 5: It's dropped a little bit throughout the week, but I 680 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 5: think he can still get plus one fifteen, So yeah, 681 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 5: that one seems pretty straightforward to me at plus money. 682 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 2: All right, good stuff, gents, Good to be back this week. 683 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 2: We were not here last week because nothing on nothing 684 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 2: on the calendar, but we are here every Friday on 685 00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast, getting you set for you. Next 686 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 2: week we have Fight Night two six. Looking forward to 687 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 2: that and thanks to tuning in to our UFC two 688 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 2: seventy three betting preview for Action Network Senior writer Sean Zarillo, 689 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 2: former pro MMA fighter, MMA analyst Billy Ward, Brendan glas Sheen, 690 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 2: be on the lookout. Like I said, every Friday, we 691 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,680 Speaker 2: come to you here on the Action Network Podcast. 692 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time. Best of luck with your 693 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: bets this weekend and your lineups. We'll talk to you 694 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 1: again soon