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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us prout read a lot. They're up for running again.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Sisting just glorious text procution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with find my buddy. And

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Speaker 3: that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to Wada, wide eyed drill Bibeus, How old Earth,

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Speaker 1: Big Happens.

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal at the

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Speaker 4: Soccer Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is

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Speaker 4: Michael Lee Buff and joining me as always are my

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Speaker 4: friends and colleagues Anthony the Bundo, J Cunningham and gentlemen.

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Speaker 4: Pretty exhausted. Been a lot of soccer these past fourteen

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Speaker 4: days or so, and the Champions League ties were just

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Speaker 4: outrageous and we came out pretty well. Are our boys

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Speaker 4: from Via real making us look good? Chelsea came close

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Speaker 4: and then the city at letting match was just absolute theater.

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Speaker 4: But we're better, so we're always looking ahead and not

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Speaker 4: back and what are we were looking ahead to this weekend?

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Speaker 4: Another Man City Liverpool match, this time the FA Cup

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Speaker 4: semi final. This is a ten thirty am kickoff on

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Speaker 4: Saturday at Wembley. City is plus one fifteen on the

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Speaker 4: three way money line, Liverpool's plus two hundred the draws

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Speaker 4: plus two twenty. The two advanced line is City sitting

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Speaker 4: at odds on minus one sixty five with Liverpool at

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Speaker 4: plus one twenty. I really don't know what else there

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Speaker 4: is to say about these two teams anymore. We kind

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Speaker 4: of have an idea of how this should play out.

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Speaker 4: City's going to try to be trying to beat the

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Speaker 4: high line of Liverpool. Liverpool's going to be as clinical

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Speaker 4: as possible and take their chances. So I guess you

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Speaker 4: kind of just run it back like I would say.

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Speaker 4: I'll probably lean towards City again like I did last weekend.

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Speaker 4: We'll just all watch them draw too too in an

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Speaker 4: exciting fashion. Anthony, you were on Liverpool in their match

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Speaker 4: over the weekend last weekend. Will you be back on

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Speaker 4: the Reds this coming weekend?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I certainly lean that way again. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 3: have much difference between these two teams going into the

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Speaker 3: match last week. I thought they were very comparable. I

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Speaker 3: had City, like I said, a smidge better. I didn't

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Speaker 3: really change much from that game. I thought it was

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Speaker 3: definitely interesting and how it played out it was not

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Speaker 3: how I expected it to play out. I thought City

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Speaker 3: were going to be much more conservative in possession, similar

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Speaker 3: to how they were when they played the first time.

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Speaker 3: They weren't. They were immediately looking to go long outlets

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Speaker 3: to the wings, vertical, getting behind Alexander Arnold, getting behind Robertson,

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Speaker 3: and really, I mean it worked. I mean they were

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Speaker 3: the better side early. I thought the first twenty ish

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Speaker 3: minutes they were clearly better and they deserved the lead

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Speaker 3: at halftime. And then I thought Liverpool made some adjustments.

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Speaker 3: They pressed more, a lot more in the second half.

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Speaker 3: It was noticeable, and that made it much harder for

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Speaker 3: City to kind of make that work and make their

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Speaker 3: passing go. They weren't as nearly successful breaking into the

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Speaker 3: Liverpool box, but all in all, I mean, you look

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Speaker 3: at all the numbers from total passes completed, was relatively

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Speaker 3: in favor of City, but a lot of their passes were,

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Speaker 3: you know, in the back half of the pitch, so

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Speaker 3: you know, they're just not quite looking to get it

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Speaker 3: forward as quickly as Liverpool was. But in terms of

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Speaker 3: dangerous possession it was very similar. City got in the

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Speaker 3: box more, but they didn't do as much with it.

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Speaker 3: So I don't change a ton from this. The only

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Speaker 3: biggest question mark is what changes in terms of tactics

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Speaker 3: and what changes in terms of momentum, In terms of

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Speaker 3: kind of how these managers go about it. I think

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Speaker 3: the most likely scenario if you go back to what

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Speaker 3: happened last year, because we had a similar experience with

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Speaker 3: City and Chelsea. The less consequential of the matches was

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Speaker 3: the more open one. It was the one that pep

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Speaker 3: rotated a little bit more for I think we may

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Speaker 3: see that because City needed the result last weekend, of

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Speaker 3: course they'd want to win this match, but in the

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Speaker 3: grand scheme of it, the league and the Champions League

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Speaker 3: are more important for City and Liverpool than this match.

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Speaker 3: And when you take away the pressure of not making

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Speaker 3: the mistakes and the pressure of you know, maybe you

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Speaker 3: know you're not quite as drilled in, you tend to

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Speaker 3: get more goals. So I would lean toward Liverpool. I

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Speaker 3: would lean again toward the over. I have not bet

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Speaker 3: anything in this game. Yet, We'll see if I end

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Speaker 3: up getting there, might see if we get more Late

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Speaker 3: City steam like we did last weekend. But I think again,

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Speaker 3: like these two teams are pretty comparable.

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Speaker 4: What's cool about this situation is that the market's going

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Speaker 4: to tell you where these two teams are, because what

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Speaker 4: do we always talk about, Oh, who do you have

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Speaker 4: favored out of neutral? This is a neutral They're playing

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Speaker 4: at Wembley, So the market's telling you that what we

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Speaker 4: I guess assumed City slightly better here, but Liverpool, like Anthony,

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Speaker 4: like you said, there's not that much separating the two sides.

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Speaker 4: I just I don't want to read too much into

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Speaker 4: that kind of stuff. With like the squad rotation, I

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Speaker 4: learned my lesson I think earlier in this year when

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Speaker 4: I tried to game that out during the Champions League games.

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Speaker 4: That meant nothing, and these two managers still just kind

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Speaker 4: of surprised us with selections here and there. So it's

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Speaker 4: a tough one to break down. I really wonder what

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Speaker 4: the kind of build up, like the hype around this

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Speaker 4: game is going to be because they just played quote

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Speaker 4: unquote like the game of the year, quote unquote, the

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Speaker 4: biggest Premier League match of all time last week, just

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Speaker 4: last week, three four days ago, and because this one

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Speaker 4: is in the FA Cup, it's not generating that kind

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Speaker 4: of buzz. So I wonder even like where if this

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Speaker 4: market's even gonna move as much, because I feel like

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Speaker 4: the action just won't be there as much. There won't

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Speaker 4: be as much action on this one compared to what

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Speaker 4: we saw on Sunday, Bjay, anything new for you between

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Speaker 4: Klop Gordiola, the citizens they were read.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I agree, nothing has really changed from that match.

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Speaker 1: I mean it was pretty went to script. I think

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Speaker 1: how maybe we all thought it was going to go

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're what I found interesting is how few

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Speaker 1: shots that were only seventeen in the match twenty nine

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Speaker 1: shot creating actions between the two sides. Now, you know,

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Speaker 1: the chances that they created were high quality. You know

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Speaker 1: they're three point one expected goals created.

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Speaker 2: In the match.

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Speaker 1: But you know, City holding fifty five percent possession is

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Speaker 1: not quite that shocking. So City clothes that are out

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Speaker 1: around what even money plus one oh five for that one.

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Speaker 1: You take away home field advantage, which is worth about

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Speaker 1: twenty five cents in the Premier League, and you get

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Speaker 1: City at plus one thirty pretty much. The oddsmakers haven't

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Speaker 1: changed anything from what's happened last last Sunday, so back

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Speaker 1: then I didn't really have any projecting value on that,

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Speaker 1: and I only have City at plus one twenty four here.

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Speaker 1: So what's interesting though with Liverpool is they went with

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Speaker 1: pretty much a B team for the match against Benefica today.

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Speaker 1: I mean they went with the backline of Gomez, Matip,

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Speaker 1: Conate and s meek Us, so they basically got to

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Speaker 1: rest Van Dyck, Alexander, Arnold Robertson. We played Dias, Fermino

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Speaker 1: and Jota up top. They Sawa obviously came on as

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Speaker 1: a sub, but Insa Audio Mony did as well, but

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Speaker 1: those guys will be rested, so Liverpool, I would say

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Speaker 1: it would be the more rested team getting to play

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Speaker 1: at home, not having to travel like City did to

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Speaker 1: Madrid and having to come back. So I would definitely

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Speaker 1: lean Liverpool, even though I'm not there on the projection

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Speaker 1: at two to one. If any team takes this more seriously,

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Speaker 1: I think Liverpool would give them their squad rotation. But

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Speaker 1: then again, Liverpool's got Manchester United on Tuesday in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League, which is uber important for them, so it's

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Speaker 1: it's tough to call for me, it's a pass. Maybe

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Speaker 1: try to get it live if you know, if Liverpool

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Speaker 1: scores first, I might try to get it in on

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Speaker 1: City because my guess is once Liverpool scores, City will

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Speaker 1: just dominate possession and just hold the ball in their

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Speaker 1: final third and you know, might be more threatening on

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Speaker 1: the counter. But I do think that City overall is

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Speaker 1: a better team on a neutral field. So definitely leaning

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Speaker 1: towards Liverpool because of the squad rotation they were able

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Speaker 1: to do in the Champions League.

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Speaker 2: But other than that is a pass for me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: One more thing, like I think you made a good point,

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Speaker 3: like Liverpool did their rotating City really didn't. And I

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Speaker 3: think City, you know what we may see from Pep

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Speaker 3: is some rotated defenders. Wouldn't be shocked to see that,

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Speaker 3: and I think that is where you tend to get

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Speaker 3: City is so dependent on this possession structure that when

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Speaker 3: they do reserve some of their backups, that's when you

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Speaker 3: tend to see them be more open. And we actually

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Speaker 3: saw this last year. They had wrapped up the league

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Speaker 3: by April. The last handful of matches they played some

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Speaker 3: reserve defenders they took more chances in possession. The games

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Speaker 3: are just more open and I think Liverpool will be

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Speaker 3: happy to play that way with them, and I think City,

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Speaker 3: if they do that, will be more vulnerable defensively to

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Speaker 3: what Liverpool wants to do, so that I think that

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Speaker 3: all plays into Liverpool, and even if we ran it back,

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Speaker 3: like you said, I played Liverpool last weekend at plus

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Speaker 3: a half, I guess I have to play Liverpool at

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Speaker 3: plus a quarter, so I would definitely lean that way.

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Speaker 3: I probably will end up playing the Reds.

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Speaker 1: Ruben Dias is upgraded to questionable now, so that's obviously

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Speaker 1: a big boost to City if he's able to play,

187
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Speaker 1: but my guess is that Pep will probably end up

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Speaker 1: saving him for the Premier League match on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: It's Brighton and.

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Speaker 3: Most important player for City's defense, Kyle Walker. It was

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Speaker 3: evident on Sunday and I think that if you look

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Speaker 3: at it like his ability to be like a sweeper

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Speaker 3: defender is the most important thing they have, especially against

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Speaker 3: Liverpool who are gonna look to get it behind. So

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Speaker 3: if he's out, I'm playing Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully Phil Foden recovers from that devastating ankle injury as well.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, that's the thing. They were put a very

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Speaker 3: physical match today. Liverpool really didn't. I mean it was

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Speaker 3: back and forth, it was fun, it was open, it

200
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Speaker 3: was entertaining, but they didn't really you know, get into

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Speaker 3: the weeds like City and I let he did, playing

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Speaker 3: an extra one hundred and five minutes with added time.

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Speaker 4: The other FA Cup semi final we'll talk about before

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Speaker 4: we get into the Premier League is Chelsea their minus

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Speaker 4: one ninety taking out a Crystal Palace who were plus

206
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Speaker 4: five to twenty five on the three way money line

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Speaker 4: the drugs plus three ten. This is eleven thirty eight

208
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Speaker 4: kickoff on Sunday at Wembley Palace plus two sixty to

209
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Speaker 4: advance to the final Chelsea minus four fifty. An interesting

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Speaker 4: one here because it's it's not like a motivational thing

211
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Speaker 4: to really break down with Chelsea because look, this is

212
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Speaker 4: their only shot at silverware this season, now important silverware.

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Speaker 4: So they're already they already won though whatever the UEFA

214
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Speaker 4: Club World Cup, so you know, have a super company

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Speaker 4: at the super Coupany caps off to them for doing that,

216
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Speaker 4: but you know this is this is you know, they're

217
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Speaker 4: probably their their biggest competition now left in the season

218
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Speaker 4: because they're pretty well concreted into that third spot in

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Speaker 4: the Premier League. But they're coming off a you want

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Speaker 4: to talk about an emotional supercharge match, They're coming off

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Speaker 4: a crazy one against Real Madrid where they forced extra

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Speaker 4: time from three to one down on aggregate going into

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Speaker 4: the second leg at the bernabout played really really well,

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Speaker 4: almost perfectly, made two mistakes, both of them end up

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Speaker 4: in the back of the net. That's what happened when

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Speaker 4: you play against Ria Matrena Kreem Benzima. So now, I

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Speaker 4: mean it's a it's a natural letdown spot for this team,

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Speaker 4: but at the same time they have to go for

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Speaker 4: it and it's not going to be straightforward. Like we've

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Speaker 4: talked about this Crystal Palace team a lot from the

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Speaker 4: beginning of the season, they just have looked up a

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Speaker 4: really tricky team for these bigger clubs to navigate, and

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Speaker 4: that's just because of their defense top five and non

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Speaker 4: penalty expected goals for ninety in the Premier League and

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Speaker 4: big chances allowed and shots for ninety. No Connor Gallagher

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Speaker 4: because he is on loan from Chelsea, which is a

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Speaker 4: big miss for them in the middle of the park.

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Speaker 4: But I still don't think that's enough to keep me

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Speaker 4: off of Palace at a big number. They've just punched

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Speaker 4: up way too well to let this plus five twenty

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Speaker 4: five pass me by. So I'll be on the Eagles

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Speaker 4: once again. Anthony. You like him too, right, Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I do, and I think you're right. Like they were

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Speaker 3: up three to nil, like they were through somehow and

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Speaker 3: didn't go through. I mean, talk about a kick in

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Speaker 3: nads for the club and for the you know, I

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Speaker 3: was at a Chelsea bar and they thought they had

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Speaker 3: it one. I mean, they were already thinking about the Semis.

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Speaker 3: And I think to lose the way they did has

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Speaker 3: a hangover effect and now they have to get up again.

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Speaker 3: I mean we've talked about this over and over again.

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Speaker 3: How many big matches have Chelsea played in the last

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Speaker 3: month and a half, over every competition you can possibly imagine. Now,

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Speaker 3: Chelsea did get unlucky. I mean four point one expected goals,

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Speaker 3: they scored four. They only conceded two point four to Real.

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Speaker 3: But they got Benzamad, they got mended, they got modriiched right,

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Speaker 3: and you know they were they were probably due for

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Speaker 3: some of that. So you know, I'm not feeling bad

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Speaker 3: for Chelsea, we'll say, but I thought Palace were pretty

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Speaker 3: unfortunate on Sunday to not get a result against Leicester.

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Speaker 3: There was a bizarre penalty sequence, penalty retake, convert the rebound,

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Speaker 3: crazy sequence, but you take that out of the game.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was relatively even. XG was pretty even,

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Speaker 3: shots were pretty even. Leicester was ahead, so you have

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Speaker 3: to kind of factor that in. But thought Palace played,

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Speaker 3: I mean, going into the game, they ended up closing

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Speaker 3: damn near picks. The market showed some respect for them

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Speaker 3: after we recorded it Wednesday, and I thought it was

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Speaker 3: a pretty even game. You know, they bounced against them,

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Speaker 3: but I don't. I didn't really downgrade them off of

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Speaker 3: that performance. And if you go back to the two

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Speaker 3: times these two teams played early the first game was

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Speaker 3: the first match of the season. I don't really read

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Speaker 3: too much into that. The last time they played, Chelsea

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Speaker 3: were minus a goal favorites and they scored in stoppage

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Speaker 3: time to win the match. But overall it was very

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Speaker 3: back and forth, very low scoring, not a lot of chances,

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Speaker 3: pretty cagy. I'm expecting that to be pretty similar here.

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Speaker 3: I've got Chelsea by point eighty one goals and the

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Speaker 3: other markets that I look at. You you look at

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Speaker 3: like XG difference for the year, it's only about zo

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Speaker 3: point seventy five different. So I showed some clear value

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Speaker 3: here on Palace and I'm gonna take them plus one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, BJ Anthony kind of touched it, and I'm in

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Speaker 4: agreement with him. I think that this is a match

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Speaker 4: that could go deep into you know, the ninety minutes

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Speaker 4: at nil nil one nil one one. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: going to be pretty low event. And that's how you're

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Speaker 4: kind of angling here too, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's what we saw at Selhurst Park the

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Speaker 1: last time these dudes played in that match, you know,

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Speaker 1: is a team Zeit scored in the eighty seventh minute

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Speaker 1: to essentially cap off what was a pretty good, okay

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Speaker 1: Chelsea performance early on. Krystal Palace really dominated the second

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Speaker 1: half of that match. It was kind of a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a fluky goal really towards the end. But

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Speaker 1: so these Anthony mentioned it. But these teams have met

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Speaker 1: twice now, first match of the season. You can put

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Speaker 1: whatever stock you want into it. Only one point two

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Speaker 1: total expected goals are created that match at Selhurst Park.

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Speaker 1: Only one point seven total expected goals created. You already

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Speaker 1: mentioned it, Michael. These two teams are both top five

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Speaker 1: in non penalty expected goals allowed. I mean both of

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Speaker 1: them are allowing you under one point one per match

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Speaker 1: for the season. So I understand Chelsea's been on fire

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Speaker 1: offensively the last few matches, but this, like you guys mentioned,

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Speaker 1: this is a big time come down.

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Speaker 2: I know it's Wembley.

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Speaker 1: I know it's an FA Cup semi finals, so it

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Speaker 1: may take them a little while to actually get into

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Speaker 1: the match. But I mean, man, I only have two

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Speaker 1: point three goals projected, so under two and a half

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Speaker 1: goals of minus one ten I think has some decent value.

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Speaker 2: Given the situational spot for Chelsea, It'll.

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Speaker 4: Be an interesting weekend in the FA Cup, an interesting

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Speaker 4: weekend in the Premier League. That's where we'll shift to now,

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Speaker 4: a seven thirty am kickoff between Tottenham Hotspur red hot

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Speaker 4: Tottenham Hotspur minus one eighty five. BJ and I were

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Speaker 4: saying it all season long. Anthony was saying we were

320
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Speaker 4: crazy that this team was headed for a top four finish,

321
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Speaker 4: and look at this, they're headed towards the top four finish.

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Speaker 4: So pan on our backs to your BJ, they're minus

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Speaker 4: one eighty five hosting Brighton five to one. On the

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Speaker 4: money line, the draw is plus three thirty. Brighton just

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Speaker 4: beat Arsenal and that line was remarkably similar to what

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Speaker 4: we're looking at here. And I do think TOTAM is

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a better team. So I wonder

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Speaker 4: if we'll see Brighton drift a little bit, and that's

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Speaker 4: where I'm looking I like the seagulls here. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's it's been bad for them. We won't sugarcoat it.

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Speaker 4: They just snapped an one and six wind draw lost

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Speaker 4: stretch where they were outscored thirteen to one, and the

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Speaker 4: XG was not pretty for them either. But we just

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Speaker 4: know that this team is better than what that form showed.

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Speaker 4: Like there's sometimes where I'm not saying to throw the

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Speaker 4: numbers out or whatever, but you just know they're gonna

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Speaker 4: end up bouncing back. That was rock bottom for them,

338
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Speaker 4: and that's when you want to buy in on teams. Plus,

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Speaker 4: we've said it all season long, Brighton or a team

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Speaker 4: that punches up really well. We saw it over the weekend.

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Speaker 4: They were lucky to beat Arsenal, but they did it.

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Speaker 4: They hung around and they got the result over the line,

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Speaker 4: and that's what you want out of an underdog. So

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Speaker 4: grand Potter and Brighton at numbers like this against any

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Speaker 4: team are always worth a sniff. So that's where I'm going.

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Speaker 4: Give me the Seagulls money line. We'll see where it goes.

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Speaker 4: But I do expect it to wine in a little

348
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Speaker 4: bit considering just how good Tottenham's been lately, and plus

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Speaker 4: they won the reverse fixture of this one to nil

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Speaker 4: and doubled them up on x G about a month ago. Anthony,

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Speaker 4: anything for you to say on your Spurs?

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I mean it's been fun. We we're good.

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Speaker 3: I was saying this months ago. I think we need

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Speaker 3: to check the tapes. I've been wrong plenty this year.

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Speaker 3: I think you have a veryal ticket. That might laugh

356
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Speaker 3: in my face, but after what I said a few

357
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Speaker 3: weeks ago when I said don't take them ninety to

358
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Speaker 3: one in the Semis. But Tottenham is a team, you know,

359
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Speaker 3: I've been touting and it's been fun to top them

360
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Speaker 3: as my favorite team. But man, we're we lucky. We

361
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Speaker 3: lucky against Villa last weekend. I think that was the

362
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Speaker 3: first match they conceded over one and a half expected

363
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Speaker 3: goals to Villa. They were completely outplayed in the first half.

364
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 3: But again, when you have someone who can hit the

365
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 3: post and find the corner twice in Kulu, scoring from

366
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:30,399
Speaker 3: a crazy angle, sometimes you're just running really hot. That's

367
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Speaker 3: when I look to fade right. And we've now reached

368
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Speaker 3: the point and the spot where I want to fade

369
00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 3: Tottenham because as much fun as I've had betting on

370
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 3: them and betting their overs, the market's now over inflating

371
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Speaker 3: them against Brighton. They played last week against Arsenal. You

372
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Speaker 3: said it right, they're comparable teams.

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Speaker 2: I have Spurs better.

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Speaker 3: I made Spurs minus one sixty here. I had Arsenal

375
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Speaker 3: minus one thirty four last week, so I do think

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Speaker 3: Arsenal are worse than Tottenham. But even then I can't

377
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Speaker 3: get to the current number. At minus one eighty five.

378
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 3: Thirty eight has them at minus one fifty five, Tottenham

379
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Speaker 3: BJ has them at minus one thirty six. They're sitting

380
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 3: there at minus one eighty, which is a clear sign

381
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Speaker 3: that they're inflated in the market. They were just minus

382
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Speaker 3: one eighty at home against Newcastle, and I don't think

383
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Speaker 3: any of us think Newcastle is as good as Brighton,

384
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Speaker 3: So Brighton's a better team than Newcastle and they're clearly

385
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Speaker 3: being priced about Similarly, Tottenham is not going to finish

386
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 3: this well forever, and so I don't love the matchup.

387
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,679
Speaker 3: Brighton has had problems. They press high, Spurs went in behind,

388
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Speaker 3: and then chaos and sues and defensive transition issues for

389
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Speaker 3: Brighton and then we tott theam scores easily, right, but

390
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,159
Speaker 3: they did get a key injury. I can't believe I'm

391
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 3: saying these words. But Matt Doherty is a huge loss

392
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,479
Speaker 3: for Toddenham. Imagine saying that like six months ago, right,

393
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 3: but he has I mean, he's one of the best

394
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Speaker 3: expected assists for ninety in the entire league. He's gotten

395
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Speaker 3: forward a ton, he's been really good in and out

396
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 3: of possession as a wing back. And he's going to

397
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 3: be a big loss. So I think Spurs are a

398
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 3: little overvalued here. I'm taking the plus one on Brighton again,

399
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 3: just like I did last week with Arsenal. Still think

400
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,119
Speaker 3: the Seagulls are undervalued, like them as a dog plus one.

401
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,159
Speaker 4: Yeah, Tottenham, it's this run is crazy that they've gone on.

402
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 2: There.

403
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 4: There's like almost ten goals above their x G and

404
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 4: they're playing the team that you'd expect. It's like they're

405
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 4: playing the exact polar opposite of them. I guess you

406
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 4: know Brighton from last year, So maybe maybe the universe

407
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 4: is looking out for the Seagulls here and giving some

408
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 4: some much needed regression in their favor. BJ Are you

409
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 4: also on the seagulls here? And what is a big

410
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 4: one in a big spot for this race for the

411
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Speaker 4: top four?

412
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 3: Yeah?

413
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: I need I need Brighton to win so bad. I

414
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: need them to double up on these North London teams not.

415
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 3: Gonna have yea.

416
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Speaker 1: Yeah. So to put some numbers to that Tottenham overperformance

417
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 1: since they lost in the FA Cup to Middlesbrough twenty

418
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,159
Speaker 1: one goals off of thirteen point two expected. I mean, Anthony,

419
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 1: I mentioned this past weekend four goals against Villa off

420
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Speaker 1: of one expected, Like are you kidding me?

421
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 2: Seriously? Like that's how you're going to get to the

422
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: top four whatever?

423
00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 3: And we were doing for that, We were that, we

424
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 3: were the biggest unders in the league. Early in the year.

425
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 3: I kept watching as miss chance to chance to chance,

426
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 3: and I said, this is gonna this is gonna come back.

427
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 3: I mean it regrets to the opposite extreme. Now we're

428
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 3: like back to where we should be. But I mean

429
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,479
Speaker 3: Tottenham fifty six from fifty two. I think they're at

430
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 3: for the year. It's about right.

431
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 1: What would you expect, sure whatever, Brighton last ten matches

432
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 1: five goals scored off of nine point one expected, So

433
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Speaker 1: this is a pendulum swinging type of match.

434
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 2: So I agree with Anthony. I do like Brighton plus one.

435
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 2: I'm close.

436
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 1: I need even money or better, like I'm at around

437
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: around two percent of value. I need even money to

438
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 1: get to get to about three. What's the key for

439
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 1: this one to me is Tottenham. They are not a

440
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 1: great pressing team, the seventeenth and pressure success rate, dead

441
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 1: last in high turnovers. Brighton is fourth in offensive pass

442
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 1: per defensive action and in their last meeting I mean

443
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 1: against Tottham, I mean toddenma'sassive per defensive action was over

444
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: seventeen against Brighton. So Brighten's able to play through pressure

445
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 1: that easily, and they don't commit a few mistakes and

446
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 1: capitalize on a few of those swinging crosses going to

447
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 1: the box, we could have a different story.

448
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 2: But yes, I mean Todam's just their overvalued in the market.

449
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: Very similarly to how arsenal Wall was during their run,

450
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 1: their hot run, they were just overvalued pretty much every

451
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 1: single week. So Tottenham has kind of reached that same

452
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 1: type of realm. We'll see how where the market goes

453
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 1: and them going forward, but yes, definitely leaning towards Brighton

454
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 1: and I really hope that people buy into Tottenham, but

455
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 1: I'm afraid they're not going to.

456
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 4: All right, We'll move on to Watford, a big one

457
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 4: for them to plus one ninety hosting Brentford. The Bes

458
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 4: are plus one sixty on the three way money line.

459
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 4: The draw here is plus two twenty nine home losses

460
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 4: in a row for Watford. Ry Hodginson has yet to

461
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 4: win a match in front of the crowd at Vicarage Road.

462
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 4: And it's tough here because we were just talking about

463
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 4: how we need to sell high. I'm spurs On after

464
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 4: a crazy run and logic would dictate you want to

465
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 4: do the same for Brentford here and you want to

466
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 4: buy low on a Watford team, but it's it's really

467
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 4: hard to get there. And then I think the number

468
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 4: is still pretty good on Brentford plus one sixty on

469
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 4: the road. I just don't know if we've seen the

470
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 4: kind of top of this mountain. That Brentford's ascending. They're

471
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 4: four to zero to one, twelve goals for, four goals

472
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 4: against on ten expectacles and four expectacles again, so it's

473
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 4: not like they're overperforming during the stretch and they're playing

474
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 4: a team that is just struggling to do anything well. Defensively,

475
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 4: they were pretty good under Hodgson in the kind of

476
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 4: first six or seven matches, but that those numbers have

477
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 4: started to decline a little bit. They did hold leads

478
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 4: to under one expected goal and weren't horrible against Liverpool.

479
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 4: But if they're selling out for defense, then they're not scoring,

480
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 4: they're not training enough on offense, and it's just a

481
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 4: bad recipe as a Brentford team that is going to

482
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 4: be all over them pressing in great form. I don't

483
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 4: think Watford has the ball movers to put the ball

484
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 4: on the carpet and beat this Brentford press. So I

485
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 4: think it's a it's a square spot, but a good

486
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 4: spot for the Bees. Give me the plus plus one

487
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 4: sixty and Brentford for me, BJ what do you get?

488
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 1: Yes, I definitely lead towards Brentford. I hate to say

489
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 1: that I need a better number because I know I'm

490
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: not going to get it. I'm about right at minus

491
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: one twenty on the on the draw not bet line

492
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 1: for Brentford. I mean, listen, they're an incredible form. You

493
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: already mentioned it. You know, nine inspected goals in the

494
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: last four matches, and this is a really, really good

495
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 1: match for them because Watford is the worst team in

496
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: the Premier League get playing through pressure. They're dead last

497
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 1: in offensive passes per defensive action and pressure success rate

498
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 1: allowed Brentford seventh, and passes per defensive action sixth and

499
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,199
Speaker 1: high turnovers. And if we go back to when these

500
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: two teams met in December at the Brentford Community Stadium,

501
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: Brentford's pressure completely overwhelmed Watford and really the entire second

502
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 1: half was spent inside.

503
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 2: Watford's final third.

504
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 1: I mean Brentford just pinned them in for the final

505
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 1: forty five minutes and got the result that they deserved.

506
00:23:55,960 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: In that match, Brentford had a forty nine pressure success right,

507
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: and their passes per defensive action was four point one.

508
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: That is one of the best pressing performances of anybody

509
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: throughout the entire.

510
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 2: Premier League season.

511
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 1: Secondly, the way to beat Brentford is you got to

512
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: press them back. You've got to press them high and

513
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: you got to press them effectively. Watford is not that

514
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 1: team they're now under Roy Hodgson. They're playing at four

515
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 1: to four to two. They're playing, they're sitting back, they're

516
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: nineteen to pass per defensive action, so not a great

517
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: matchup for them, and really in that effort and you

518
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: know the last time they met that. It's just such

519
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: a dominant Brentford performance. But here is where it gives

520
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: me pause. Not only just from a projection standpoint, but

521
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: Watford has been incredibly unlucky under Roy Hodgson and his

522
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: eleven matches in charge, minus fourteen actual goal differential, only

523
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: a minus three point nine to.

524
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: Eight expected goal differential.

525
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 1: Even this past weekend they lost three nothing to Leeds,

526
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: but the expected goals bat was pretty much even. So

527
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 1: it's very difficult for me. I really want to play Brentford.

528
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: I agree if you Michael that from a matchup standpoint,

529
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 1: this is about as good as it gets for Brentford.

530
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: But from a projection standpoint, I'm just I really want

531
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: to take it and I'm hoping if you want to,

532
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: if you want to grab Brentford, just grab it now,

533
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,479
Speaker 1: because I don't see a scenario where Watford's gonna get

534
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 1: steamed in the market. Uh, you could make the argument

535
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: that Brentford is safe and doesn't have any play for it,

536
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: but they're in an incredible form and they're not the

537
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: type of club like we'll talk about it men with

538
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: Southampton who looks like they want to be on a beach.

539
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 2: They look like they want to keep this good.

540
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,880
Speaker 1: Form going, while Watford is I mean, they're they're gonna

541
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: get relegated, They're in desperation mode. So you're kind of

542
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: seeing that in the market because you know, from the

543
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: naked eye when you look at this, Like when I

544
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: first looked at it, I was like, wow, that seems

545
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: pretty low on Brentford. So definitely leaning towards the Bees.

546
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: But the Watford potential positive regression. Roy Hodgson's giving me

547
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 1: some pause.

548
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I wonder like we're going to talk about motivation

549
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 4: a lot over the next few weeks. It is a thing.

550
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 4: I think, it's it's it's it's something to consider, especially

551
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 4: with these teams that you're gonna see like Aston Villa, Southamp.

552
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 4: Did you know, I guess you can make an argument

553
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 4: for Brighton these teams that are comfortable, but with Brentford,

554
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 4: a top half finish is a huge deal for this

555
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 4: club in its first Premier League season. So they're only

556
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 4: four points back of that. You know, they've they've played

557
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 4: more than anybody, but I think that's what they'll be

558
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 4: gunning for. Actually they're only one point back, but for

559
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 4: four points out of night. So like BJ, like you said,

560
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 4: there's there's nothing about how I'll be looking at Brentford

561
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 4: for the foreseeable future that is going to make me

562
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 4: think on you know, they might they might not be

563
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 4: up with their mind, might be on on the beach

564
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 4: as they say.

565
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: So.

566
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 4: I mean they've been on the beach for three weeks now.

567
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 4: They've looked great. So yeah, bees for me, Bees for BJ.

568
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 4: If you can get a bigger number, Anthony, I think

569
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 4: it's a similar story for you.

570
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 3: Right Yeah, I kind of lean Watford sort of. I

571
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 3: think there's a good seal spot. Watford's desperad their at home.

572
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: There are going to be better spots. Brentford isn't very

573
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 3: much in an exhale spot. They just had a win

574
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 3: against west Ham, a win against Chelsea. They got out

575
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: of the zone here and their defense is run pretty well.

576
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 3: The last six or seven matches. But the numbers is

577
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:05,959
Speaker 3: not there for me, So I'm gonna pass here.

578
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 4: All right, Let's move on to.

579
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 1: This.

580
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 4: One's gonna be funny. Manchester United. They're minus four to

581
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 4: twenty five hosting nord City on a one game winning street.

582
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 4: The Canaries are. They're twelve to one on the money line.

583
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 4: The draw here is plus five point fifty. I don't

584
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 4: care if it's nord City. I don't care. If it's

585
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 4: Coventry City, I don't care if it's Cambridge United. How

586
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 4: on earth are you going to lay minus four to

587
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 4: twenty five am Manchester United? Right now?

588
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:33,199
Speaker 3: I don't I just.

589
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 4: Don't understand how you can do it. You want to

590
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 4: talk about on a beach. I have no idea where

591
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 4: United is right now. Like we know Eric ten Hogg

592
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 4: has a verbally agreed to his deal. I think a

593
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 4: lot of these players know that they're not going to

594
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 4: be back next season under ten Hog. What are they

595
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 4: playing for at this point? Like you could tell me

596
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 4: right now that a bet on nord City at twelve

597
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 4: to one is actually a decent shot and it's not crazy.

598
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 4: This is the worst Premier League team we've seen this

599
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 4: season by far, but United just is not at the

600
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 4: races at all. So there's no way on earth I

601
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 4: can be talked into a United bet here. And look,

602
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 4: I mean, if you want to look at silver Lining

603
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 4: Snorts City back to back clean sheets, one of them

604
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 4: is a win, although they allowed three point seven expected

605
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 4: goals in those in those two matches. So yeah, it's

606
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 4: it's an orch or nothing for me, and I think

607
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 4: I'll probably be there just for the laughs, bja anything

608
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 4: for you.

609
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, So what's interesting about this matchup is if you

610
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: go back these two teams played earlier, it was a

611
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: United barely won one nothing and they had a penalty

612
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: in there. So it really wasn't this dominant type performance

613
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: that we've seen against a lot of the other bigger

614
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: sides that have took on Norwich. Yeah, you know, you

615
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: mentioned where their head is at, especially after the lost

616
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: against Everton. I mean they got Liverpool on deck on

617
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: Tuesday and then Arsenal next Saturday. So you want to

618
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: talk about, I don't know, not necessarily the deaf nission

619
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: of a Sandwich spot, but it's definitely a look ahead spot.

620
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: So I agree with you. So I have United around

621
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: minus three.

622
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: Point fifteen, so I can't get even close to minus

623
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: four fifty. But it's very very hard for me. I

624
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: don't think I've bet on Norwich once this season. Maybe

625
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: maybe have both teams to score, but I don't I

626
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: don't plan to start now, so I will be ultimately

627
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: passing on this one. But I really really hope that

628
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: Norwich does something into United. You can say they're not

629
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: really alive for a top four. I mean they're six

630
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: points back from Tottenham with seven matches left to play,

631
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: so there's really I mean, it's pretty much over for

632
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: United and they don't and they're not the type of

633
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: club that really cares like, oh my gosh, like they're honestly,

634
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: they're either gonna be out of Europe or in the

635
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 1: Europea Conference League, like it's gonna be it's gonna be

636
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: very funny to watch next season under ten Hog because

637
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about it more in the future, but

638
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 1: if they don't bring in the players that fit his system,

639
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 1: I mean, it's gonna be We're gonna go through this

640
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 1: same song and dance again next year.

641
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 4: And I mean another note about Norwich is we know

642
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 4: where their relegation hopes are. There Minus they're basically all

643
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 4: like minus one thousand, right, it's over. But they just

644
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 4: collected four points in the last two games, so they're thinking, look,

645
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 4: we've seen miracles before, we've seen great escapes before. Maybe

646
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 4: we can at least push or kick the can down

647
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 4: the road. If they get points out of this United game,

648
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 4: they win this United game, that makes their next game

649
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 4: worth playing and worth being invested in again, right, So

650
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 4: that's what they're playing for here. So it's not like

651
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 4: this is a team that a lame duck zombie team.

652
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 4: It's just really not out of the question that they

653
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: do this, even at Old Trafford and by the time

654
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 4: the final whistle blows on Saturday morning, we see just

655
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 4: someone in hockey. A lot of times with Canadian markets,

656
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 4: when fans are fed up, they throw jerseys on the ice.

657
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 4: They throw that the SA I'm done if we see

658
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 4: some United jerseys on the on the pitch. Anthony real

659
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 4: quick on United and Norwich.

660
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have a ton here. I kind of

661
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 3: lean toward Norwich as well. If it got to two

662
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 3: at a better number, I would play it, but it's

663
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: never going to get there. I don't think I don't

664
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: hate like the first goal scorer you bet that you

665
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 3: like to do Norich is like plus three fifty to

666
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 3: score first if you know if the United's flat. I

667
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 3: couldn't do that because I know if I did the Tamu,

668
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: it would be somebody else would score first and I

669
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 3: would just be kicking myself. But yeah, I mean I

670
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 3: don't hate that idea. Like if you wanted to get

671
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: out the derivative market here, I think it's a good

672
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 3: game to do it because you're attacking United's motivation, which

673
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 3: isn't really priced in the market. So I think you

674
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 3: could maybe look there like a first goal or first

675
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 3: half money line, or if you want to get crazy

676
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 3: full game money line. I don't hate any of those

677
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: plays just because I think there's there's an all downside

678
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 3: on United.

679
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 2: There's no three guys.

680
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: I'll give you for first goal score and they're Gosh Sergeant,

681
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:58,479
Speaker 1: yeah Josh sartin sixteen one.

682
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 2: But I was thinking more like Grant grand Handley eighty

683
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: to one. United sucks on set pieces.

684
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 3: United set piece defense.

685
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 2: Max Aarons one hundred and thirty to one.

686
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 3: I don't think he scored all year, Yeah, but you

687
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 3: never know.

688
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 2: Benis Ben Gibson one hundred to one.

689
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: I mean, why not take a shot at one of

690
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 1: these guys against the terrible United sept piece defense.

691
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 3: I think that's normally you know, it's funny. I'm surprised

692
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 3: I'm not on the Norwich team. To a lover, I

693
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 3: need to go look more into that now, because.

694
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: I I.

695
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: Typically generically look toward that when they're playing one of

696
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: the Big six in the last month.

697
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: Minus won ten half is minus won ten.

698
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 4: But I think the point, the point stance is that

699
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 4: it's a it's a game you take a shot in

700
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 4: if you're looking, if you're gonna be watching it, it's

701
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 4: a game you take a shot.

702
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 3: No interest in betting United minus one and a half

703
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 3: minus one forty? Are they serious? They shouldn't be that

704
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 3: against anybody.

705
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 4: Exactly, And we might see them rotate too, because they

706
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 4: have a big match coming in the midweek.

707
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 3: So I think they'll be I think they'll be up

708
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 3: for Liverpool. By the way, I didn't exactly think I'm

709
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 3: gonna be betting them on Tuesday.

710
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: That's the funny thing, Like, that's the great thing about betting.

711
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 4: Right here we are talking about no way I'm betting

712
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 4: man Man United against the worst team in the Premie League.

713
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 4: Hell yeah, I'll bet them against the second best team

714
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. What a what a hobby we have?

715
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to Southampton. They are three

716
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 4: to one at home hosting BJ's Arsenal os on minus

717
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 4: one to five on the road. The draw is plus

718
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 4: two sixty five the Saints. They're probably on the beach.

719
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:24,719
Speaker 1: Uh.

720
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 4: They're one and four win draw loss in their last

721
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 4: five in the Premier League. That's three goals for fifteen

722
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 4: goals against. The expected goals does suggest that they are

723
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 4: due for some positive regression. They have seven goal expected

724
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 4: goals for and eleven against UH in that span, so

725
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 4: about four goals in the red in both departments. Arsenal,

726
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 4: though they're in some weird form UH one oh three

727
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 4: win draw loss in their last four. They've been out

728
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 4: scored seven to two in those games. Must must win

729
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 4: game for their top four chances, and they'll be on

730
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 4: the road and at Southampton, a team that they have

731
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 4: last night nothing yet this season, so maybe that's coming.

732
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 4: They almost did against Chelsea. I thought we were going

733
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,439
Speaker 4: to get it there. But that's something keep in mind.

734
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 4: But the Saints man like you just never know what

735
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 4: to expect from them, and I think Arsenal, even at

736
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 4: as a as a odds on road favorite, could be

737
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 4: a little cheap against the Southampton side that is just

738
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 4: giving up goals left and right here. But I'll probably

739
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 4: be passing BJ Penny for your thoughts here on Saints

740
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 4: and Gunners.

741
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I won't be playing. It will be way more

742
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 2: emotionally invested as a fan.

743
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 1: I can't really get there on the number, but yeah,

744
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: So if we go back to when these two teams

745
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 1: met the first time, it was the start of essentially

746
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 1: Arsenal's run back towards.

747
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 2: The top four.

748
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: If you remember, I think we all played Southampton plus one.

749
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: Arsenal was in terrible form at home. Southampton was coming

750
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: off a few good performances and Arsenal just thrashed them,

751
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: similar to I mean, not exactly the same, but pretty

752
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: close what Chelsea did, where there's just a ton of

753
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,280
Speaker 1: available space behind them if you can play through pressure,

754
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: which Arsenal was able to do. And now Arsenal's up

755
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:09,479
Speaker 1: to being one of the best teams in the Premier

756
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: League got playing through pressure.

757
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 2: So this one could get out of hand.

758
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: I really as a fan, I hope that Southampton is

759
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 1: on the beach. They better be a little careful though.

760
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: They're at thirty six points, which typically what they say

761
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,919
Speaker 1: in the Premier leagues. If you have forty points you're safe.

762
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: So if they I mean, this happened with Southampton last year.

763
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 1: They had a great first half run, they beat Liverpool

764
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: like right in the new year, and then they were

765
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: the worst second half team in the Premier League. So

766
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: it wouldn't surprise me if they just did that again.

767
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: So I definitely lean towards Arsenal. I think the matchup

768
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 1: is really good for them, given what Chelsea was able

769
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: to do against Southampton last weekend. But from a projection standpoint,

770
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: I only have Arsenal around plus one ten, so I

771
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: will be passing and yeah, talk about must wins. This

772
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: is a absolute must win with Chelsea on deck.

773
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 2: In the midweek, you brought it up.

774
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 4: We talked about Marcella biosa leads to be lsa burnout.

775
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 4: Ralph hassen Hudle there could be something to that too,

776
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 4: with the way he has his team running all over

777
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 4: the place for ninety minutes in every game. Anthony, sometimes

778
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 4: you got to do it. Sometimes you got to wear

779
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 4: the black hat and betting and bet your rivals. You're close.

780
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,439
Speaker 3: Huh yeah, I'm close. Like everyone's sitting the panic button

781
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 3: again on Arsenal, which is usually when I want to

782
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 3: buy them, because they're like the most narrative narrative team

783
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 3: in the league, and so when everybody's out is usually

784
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 3: when I want to look to bet them. I do

785
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 3: concern myself with the loss of Kieran Tierney in this matchup.

786
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 3: Tierney is so good at being an outlet, ball progressor

787
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: up the wing, crosser, all those things that are very

788
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: effective against the Saints team, and they don't have him,

789
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 3: and that's a big loss in this matchup specifically, I

790
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 3: do think they can load up with passers and still

791
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 3: get through the press and still create chances. Like BJ said, also,

792
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: that first game was the Willy Cabro game. I mean

793
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 3: he was catching the balls and then throwing them into

794
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 3: his own net basically as the goalie. So that was

795
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 3: a bit of a weird situation. I thought. Think Arsenal

796
00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 3: scored three off of a one and a half exp

797
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: did so I make Arsenal minus won twenty five. They're

798
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 3: right around minus one oh five to one ten, So yes,

799
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 3: I do show some value on the Gunners. I'm usually

800
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 3: low on Saints and I lean that way. We'll see

801
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 3: if I get there by Saturday.

802
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, still know Thomas Party, I don't. I don't know

803
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: if Grant Shock is going to play left back again.

804
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: What a horrible decision that was. But we have nobody left,

805
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 1: so we don't really where. We don't have a choice

806
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 1: of what to do, so we'll see what happens.

807
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just we need this win so bad.

808
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Jaka's going to play left back again.

809
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 3: I thought that was we had to. Yeah, I say,

810
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 3: we need passers to beat Brighton's presser and we're going

811
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 3: to do that, and it didn't really work. But I

812
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 3: just didn't think Jocka was bad. I don't know, but

813
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: I think I think he's better than tavars I left

814
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 3: back he is, so I think we're gonna see him again.

815
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 3: But like, I don't think it's bad. But then the

816
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 3: midfields week, so it is a tricky situation. But yeah,

817
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I want to bet Arsenal. It's tough.

818
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna betting them on Wednesday.

819
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 4: We'll see again. All right, let's not give two too

820
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 4: much away about Wednesday for our next pot here and

821
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 4: we'll instead we'll talk about Newcastle and Leicester. The Magpies

822
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 4: are at home plus one twenty five hosting Leicester City

823
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,280
Speaker 4: plus two thirty. The draw here is plus two forty.

824
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 4: Leicester is three to one and one over the last

825
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 4: five six goals for five goals against itself plus one

826
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 4: goal differential four point one four expected goals four nine

827
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 4: point two expected goals against. This team cracks me up.

828
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 4: And Brendan Rodgers has been talking them up, and obviously

829
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 4: he's the manager. They're getting results, so he's going to

830
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:39,240
Speaker 4: but they are a luckbox and do for some defensive

831
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 4: and offensive regression. At some point they did just double

832
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 4: up our boys from Crystal Palace, and assuming they got

833
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 4: doubled up by our boys from Crystal Palace in XTG

834
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 4: in their last win and have been have lost the

835
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 4: expectacle of Battle in three straight victories. It's just a weird,

836
00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 4: weird team and they've had they're having a strange, strange season,

837
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 4: and because they've basically been in the middle of the

838
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 4: pack all season long, nobody's really been paying attention to

839
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 4: them except for people who bet so a team that

840
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 4: I'm just not going to get involved with. And I

841
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 4: don't really see much value on Newcastle either, as they

842
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 4: are safe and kind of have their own issues to

843
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 4: sort through. So I'll be passing on Newcastle and Leicester, Anthony.

844
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, easy pass here. I think they could be flat.

845
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 3: They have a road trip to PSV Eindhoven in the

846
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 3: Conference on Thursday, and they have a second consecutive road

847
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: trip to Newcastle. The market really likes Newcastle. I don't

848
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,439
Speaker 3: a lot of love for the market in Newcastle last

849
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 3: match against Wolves when we recorded they were plus one twenty,

850
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 3: they closed minus one ten even I jumped in and

851
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,919
Speaker 3: they were not very good. They were quite bad. In fact,

852
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 3: they were better than Wolves, but only scored because of

853
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 3: a penalty which was pretty dumb from joj Aysauce. So

854
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 3: not impressed by Newcastle as a favorite here. If I

855
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:56,919
Speaker 3: had to play it, i'd play the luck box and Leicester.

856
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 3: But again, like you said, I don't really want to

857
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 3: bet that team. I think they're in a very Doldrum's

858
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 3: kind of spot here, and again off the PSV game,

859
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 3: I think it's there. It could be flat regardless of

860
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 3: where they win or lose.

861
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean, it's when you look at the

862
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 4: two teams on paper, even with the home field advantage

863
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 4: for Newcastle's, Leicester is a better team right now. You

864
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 4: are the re enforcements that Newcastle made over the January

865
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 4: transfer window. So I think that's the path that you

866
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 4: can look for for Lester and BJA. You're strolling down

867
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 4: that path.

868
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 2: Yeah why not?

869
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,320
Speaker 1: I actually really do like Lester this week, and I

870
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 1: understand the spot is not great. I understand they've been overperforming,

871
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: but I don't understand what the market is doing with Newcastle.

872
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: I mean, Anthony mentioned they closed it plus one to

873
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 1: fifteen against Wolves. I understand we've talked about Wolves had

874
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 1: nauseum about how much they were performed. That even that

875
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: is a little bit insane, especially without Karen Trevia and

876
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 1: Callum Wilson. So Newcastle since January fifteenth, I mentioned this

877
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: last week, but plus since they got out all the

878
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: reinforcements plus three actual goal differential but minus one point

879
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: two expect to go differential. They have the third most

880
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: points in the Premier League since that time for him,

881
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: twenty three points in twelve matches, but their expected points

882
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 1: is at sixteen point five, so pretty crazy. Over performance

883
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: here from Newcastle Lester. Listen, they got Johnny Evans back,

884
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 1: which I think is really big for their defense, which

885
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: has been pretty much one of the worst in the

886
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: Premier League with you know, playing Daniel or Monty at

887
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: a position. While he can do it, it's just hasn't

888
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 1: worked in that time frame. But since Johnny Evans return,

889
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 1: one point three x g allowed against Manchester United, point

890
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: four to seven xg allowed against PSV in the first

891
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 1: leg of the europe A Conference League and then one

892
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: point three allowed against Crystal Palace with a penalty last weekend.

893
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: So with Johnny Evans in the lineup this year, I

894
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,479
Speaker 1: mean Lester, you're still allowing one point five expect goals

895
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 1: per ninety but without him one point eight expect goals

896
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 1: per ninety. So he does have a positive effect on

897
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 1: their defense. And the last time these two teams met,

898
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 1: I mean Lester drilled Newcastle four nothing at the King

899
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 1: Power two point five expected goals great off only seven shots.

900
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: So you talk about luckbox. That was probably a little

901
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 1: bit of a luck box type performance. But from a

902
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 1: projection standpoint, I mean, I only have I had this

903
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 1: match protracted pretty close to pick On at Newcastle plus

904
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 1: one sixty three. If you look at five thirty eight,

905
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 1: they only have Newcastle at thirty nine percent. Info Goal

906
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 1: has Newcastle at around forty percent, so plus one twenty

907
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 1: five sitting at forty five percent. Like, that's that's all

908
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: too high on Newcastle. So I'm actually going to take

909
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: Lester John o Bett at plus one forty. You could

910
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 1: question motivation with Lester, but you could also question motivation

911
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 1: with Newcastle being pretty safe right now. So uh, give

912
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 1: me the Foxes to potentially get a win here at

913
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 1: Saint James Park.

914
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 4: It wouldn't hate a fact this win actually, because I

915
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 4: think I'll be betting Everdon next week and get as

916
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 4: a good a number as possible. All right, Let's close

917
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 4: out the Premier League schedule with Burnley traveling to west Ham,

918
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 4: which size up the relegation battle as we always do

919
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 4: when we get to either Burnley or ever Did lead

920
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 4: you night. They're safe right now in sixteenth place, thirty

921
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 4: three points from thirty two games played, plus seven to

922
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 4: fifty to be relegated at DraftKings Evertton in there plus

923
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 4: two seventy five to be relegated twenty eight points from

924
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 4: thirty thirty games played. Burnley's also played thirty they have

925
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 4: twenty four points. They are minus three to thirty to

926
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 4: be relegated. Watford twenty one points from thirty one games played,

927
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 4: so they are seven points adrift with one more game

928
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 4: played minus two thousand. Norwich City twenty one points as

929
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 4: well from thirty games played, and well, they're basically off

930
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 4: the board. It is interesting to note that we said

931
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 4: it that Everton and Burnley are back in the same

932
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 4: spot that they were before the Burnley match, except with

933
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 4: fewer games for each team to play, four points separating

934
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 4: them and Burnley before that Everdon match was minus six

935
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 4: to fifty to be relegated, so they're not as as

936
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 4: short as they were, which it has given me a

937
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 4: little bit of adjita. But yeah, So Burnley's traveling to

938
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 4: west Ham in a game that they're going to have

939
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 4: to go for. They're plus four to twenty five. They're

940
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 4: catching west Ham in a good spot. The Hammers will

941
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,799
Speaker 4: be minus one forty right now on the money line,

942
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 4: a three way money line, and the dross plus two eighty.

943
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,280
Speaker 4: West Ham's playing a really really important game on Thursday

944
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 4: against Leone, the chance to go to the Europa League

945
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 4: semi finals at a date with Barcelona perhaps, like this

946
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 4: is a big, big game coming up for west Ham.

947
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 4: A team that was relegated about a decade ago or

948
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 4: a little bit more than a decade ago, bounce right

949
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 4: back up and has never really found great footing in

950
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 4: the Premier League like towards the top of the table.

951
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 4: But David Moyes has them playing well over his newest

952
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 4: stint there and this would just be a huge step

953
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 4: forward for them. They've really turned the London Olympic Stadium

954
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 4: into friendly confines for them, fans seem to start to

955
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 4: love it now, so this could be a huge letdown

956
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 4: spot for west Ham, which gives me a little bit

957
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 4: of trepidation both as an Everdon fan and someone and

958
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 4: if I was to be interested in west Ham, however,

959
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 4: I think the best way to play this game is

960
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 4: to back goals, so I think I like both teams

961
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:07,280
Speaker 4: to score at minus one fifteen. We know Burnley's defense

962
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 4: has been struggling all season long and west Ham nine

963
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,760
Speaker 4: point two expected goals allowed in their last six matches.

964
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 4: They've alternated wins and losses over those six matches as well,

965
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 4: so they're just really inconsistent. So a team that I,

966
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,240
Speaker 4: you know, like in that Everden match, I don't mind

967
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 4: backing them to concede and perhaps concede more than one. Anthony,

968
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 4: you think Burnley can make a real go of it here.

969
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on Burnley plus a half plus one twenty

970
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 3: West Hamond result. The result against Leon is important either way.

971
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 3: We don't know that as a recording, but I think

972
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 3: either it's a let down or their flat or it

973
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:43,280
Speaker 3: is very hard after going to France for their biggest

974
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 3: match of the season to then get up for a

975
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 3: Burnley match in the league in a sleepy Sunday spot.

976
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 3: They only have five shots against Brentford. That's like bad,

977
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 3: really bad, probably the fewest anybody's had against Brentford all year.

978
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,359
Speaker 3: And their attack is regressing hard and they've now lost

979
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 3: Kurt Zuma, their best defender. It's a huge loss to

980
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 3: a pretty thin defense as is. And you look across

981
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 3: the board at some of the numbers for this team.

982
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 3: Right defensively, they've only conceded the ninth most non penalty

983
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:14,320
Speaker 3: expected goals in the league, but box entry is sixteenth,

984
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 3: cross has completed allowed seventeenth big scoring chance allowed, twelve

985
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,240
Speaker 3: pressures per ninety eighteenth. They allow the fifteenth most progressive

986
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 3: pass and dribbles. So this is not a good defense

987
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 3: until they get to their own penalty area, where they're

988
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 3: very good at preventing shots. Well, that I think comes

989
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 3: down to the individual quality of your center backs, where

990
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: Zoom is pretty good, but now he's out and I

991
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,800
Speaker 3: think they're thin there, they're gonna have problems. Give me

992
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 3: Burnley plus a half plus one to twenty.

993
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 4: PJ, anything for you. I feel like you'll be disagreeing

994
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 4: a little bit as I feel like, Anthony, you haven't

995
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 4: bet Burnley off season, and PJ you're more akin to

996
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 4: betting them, and you guys are switching roles here.

997
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

998
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,839
Speaker 1: So I understand that Burnley's carried over one expected goal

999
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 1: in their last two matches against Everton and Norwich, who

1000
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 1: are two of the worst defenses in the entire Premier League.

1001
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: I actually have a little bit of value on west Ham.

1002
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: I have them at minus one fifty two. This is

1003
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 1: not a great spot for them. I agree with that.

1004
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: Traveling to France having to come back without your two

1005
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 1: main defenders is or without you know, Kurtzuma is troublesome

1006
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 1: of a spot for west Ham. But I'm very interesting

1007
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 1: to see what the market does with this, because we

1008
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: see it. We will talk about it, you know, in

1009
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 1: future episodes. But motivation for certain teams is very key.

1010
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: I mean west Ham is still very much in the

1011
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 1: race for at least a top six in a European spot,

1012
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 1: which is a huge deal to them, Like to the

1013
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 1: club like them, that's a big deal. Even if they're

1014
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 1: playing in the Conference League. That is still a big

1015
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 1: deal to west Ham. Whereas United, if they don't get

1016
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:47,719
Speaker 1: the champions legue, they're gonna be like, who really cares?

1017
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,280
Speaker 1: So I think we'll actually get a pretty good, motivated

1018
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: type west Ham team and they are at home where

1019
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:56,439
Speaker 1: they play much better than on the road.

1020
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 2: I just really don't buy this Burnley team.

1021
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: I mean the stylistically and tactically, Sean Deitsch cannot set

1022
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 1: his team up defensively anymore.

1023
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 2: He has to go forward.

1024
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: He has no choice left. He has to go for

1025
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:11,720
Speaker 1: wins now. He can't just sit back and get points.

1026
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 1: He has to go for the wins. So with Burnley

1027
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,399
Speaker 1: having to play more open, like we've seen throughout most

1028
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:18,920
Speaker 1: of the season, they've been terrible.

1029
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 2: When they've had to be open.

1030
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 1: I mean, the middle of the pitch and a lot

1031
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,759
Speaker 1: of their matches if you watch, it's just wide open

1032
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 1: for teams to penetrate. And west Ham they lost Jared

1033
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: Bowen for a little while, they are completely healthy upfront.

1034
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: I know they haven't been creating the chances that we've

1035
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 1: seen from the beginning of the season, but what better

1036
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,399
Speaker 1: time to get back on track against a Burnley team

1037
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 1: that's going to be wide open. So the spot isn't great,

1038
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 1: but I'm very interesting to see what the market is.

1039
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 1: I do need minus one twenty five or better to

1040
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 1: bet west Ham. We might get there, you know, give

1041
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 1: him the spot and the motivation, we might get see

1042
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 1: some steam on Burnley, and I hope we do it

1043
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 1: because I think this is that would be a very

1044
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 1: very cheap price on a west Ham team that is

1045
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: sitting around seventh or eighth and expected goal differential versus

1046
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 1: Burnley team that has a minus seventeen expected gold differential

1047
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: on the season and has been really, really poor on

1048
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: the road.

1049
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 4: All right. That will wrap up the Premier League for

1050
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 4: the week. We will be talking a lot more about

1051
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 4: the Premier League on Sunday night as we looked to

1052
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,359
Speaker 4: some big midweek games. Send it for now, let's say

1053
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 4: flip to the Bundesliga. I'll turn to you, Bjay, what's

1054
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 4: your favorite bet in Germany?

1055
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1056
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 1: Oh my, how the tables have turned in the match

1057
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 1: that I'm gonna bet. I like Leverkusta at home John

1058
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: obtt ten against Leipzig. I don't think I haven't bet

1059
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 1: Leverkusen at all this season. And they've been massive performers

1060
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 1: offensively for large stretches and we've complained about them at nauseum,

1061
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: but Leipzig has taken that baton from them. I mean,

1062
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 1: over the last eight Bundesliga matches, twenty four goals off

1063
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 1: of ten point six expected. That's insanity. I don't care

1064
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 1: how good you are offensively. I mean on the last

1065
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 1: two matches againstdorben Hoffenheim, they scored seven goals off of

1066
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 1: two point four expected. I mean, this run has to

1067
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 1: end at some point. And they're coming off a road

1068
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 1: trip to Italy against Atlanta on Thursday in Italy, coming

1069
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 1: back to play a road match against Leverkusen on Sunday.

1070
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: This is not a good spot for Leipzig and if

1071
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: you can believe it, Leverkusen now they're deserving of this,

1072
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 1: but they've been a tad underrated offensively since the one

1073
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 1: to one draw with Byron. I mean they scored five

1074
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:22,359
Speaker 1: goals off of eight point one expected. Now they were

1075
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 1: obviously due for that, but I mean there's still third

1076
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga in non penalty expected goals. They average

1077
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 1: around one point seven per match. On the flip side,

1078
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 1: their top five non penalty expected goals lowed. They's second

1079
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,240
Speaker 1: in big scoring chances allowed, which is massive against RB Leipsig,

1080
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 1: who averages over two big scoring chances per match. In fact,

1081
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 1: Leverkusen's only allowed four big scoring chances in their last

1082
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 1: seven matches. I know the rest of the projection biddles

1083
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 1: out there from five thirty eight to Info goal have

1084
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: Leipsig is a small favorite, but I actually have Leverkusen

1085
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 1: is a small favorite at home here, So I'm gonna

1086
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 1: take them. John o Bett plus one ten against Leipzig

1087
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 1: and this may come back to haunt me really, really badly,

1088
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,840
Speaker 1: but it's just not that great of a spot for Leipzig,

1089
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 1: who's been drastically overperforming.

1090
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 4: Anthony, Uh, what do you have for us?

1091
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll have a preview for that match. I'm not

1092
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:12,879
Speaker 3: betting Leverkusen, but I do. I do like the under,

1093
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 3: so you can read my preview as to why, and

1094
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 3: oh man, that's that's like It's like when Dorman played Leverkusen.

1095
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 3: You're like, oh man, this game is going to be stupid,

1096
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 3: but I have to play it. And that's where I'm

1097
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 3: going to be on Sunday. But before we get to Sunday,

1098
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 3: I like her at de Berlin on Saturday plus a

1099
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 3: half on the road against Osburg the Osburg Luckbox. Uh,

1100
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 3: They're They're on the list too. I mean, this is

1101
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 3: one of my favorite putting this a good cards of

1102
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 3: the year, so it could get ugly, but Osburg another

1103
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 3: good cover for them, and in a good performance against Byron.

1104
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 3: They caught Byron in a really flat spot, but they

1105
00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 3: only conceded one non permany expected goals or credit to them.

1106
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 3: But this attack is so bad. I can't get them

1107
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 3: being a minus one oh five favorite against anyone in

1108
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 3: the league except probably great There and Bilafeld, although I

1109
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 3: don't even think i'd get there with them on great There,

1110
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 3: so probably just Bilafeld, who I have rated as the

1111
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 3: worst team in the league, but they have they've scored

1112
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 3: or produced less than one expected goal in six of

1113
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 3: their last eight bundest League matches, so we're dealing with

1114
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 3: a team who is not able to create chances. Ricardo Peppi,

1115
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:20,360
Speaker 3: of course, was the big name signing they made in

1116
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 3: January and four and a half nineties. I don't know

1117
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 3: if a sample to judge him, but he's only had

1118
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,399
Speaker 3: point twenty seven expect the goals per ninety not gonna

1119
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 3: cut it in Germany. Not good for him either, and

1120
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 3: not good for his chances to be the nine in

1121
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: the fall. But with that being said, with this match Harta.

1122
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed by their local rivals Unon over the weekend,

1123
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,919
Speaker 3: been called by BJ there, but I think I'm gonna

1124
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:46,319
Speaker 3: buy low on them here. They've now lost four out

1125
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 3: of five. The only win they did have was against Hoffenheim,

1126
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 3: another overvalued team, and I think this is a similar

1127
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 3: spot for them to get at least a point on

1128
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 3: the road against a team who cannot create enough chances

1129
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 3: to be the favorite that they are.

1130
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 4: I don't really have one in the Bundusesliga this week,

1131
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 4: but I do think it's interesting.

1132
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 3: I'll probably be bet, I'm gonna be on mind and

1133
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:06,919
Speaker 3: I'll probably again.

1134
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:08,760
Speaker 4: Probably I'll probably take.

1135
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 2: And and and Union Berlin again. There's another fantastic spot,

1136
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:15,959
Speaker 2: getting Frankfurt come traveling to Spain.

1137
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:19,640
Speaker 3: I don't have that one, but I mean mine's what

1138
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 3: a collapse last week, That's that's.

1139
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 4: What we're looking for. But I mean you just said it.

1140
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 4: Bielfield is the worst team in the Bundesliga. They're playing

1141
00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 4: Byron after that match against uh Villa Reale, I.

1142
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 3: Say this, I'll say this. I know Byron could score

1143
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 3: a thousand. Yeah, Bielfeld plays in a low block, like

1144
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 3: they can't defend, but like they do play in a

1145
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 3: way that Byron just struggled to score against. And they

1146
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,879
Speaker 3: only scored they only the first time they played them,

1147
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:49,439
Speaker 3: and they clapped.

1148
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 4: They've had the I mean they lost the boatum. Like

1149
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 4: it's not out of the question. So just you might

1150
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 4: see that one come through. Uh as we get closer

1151
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 4: to the weekend. All right, let's move to Spain.

1152
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 3: I mean I could see it like Byron's we're not

1153
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 3: playing for anything. Yeah anyways, right they did. They were

1154
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 3: terrible team.

1155
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 4: But just what the doctor ordered for Byron, or it's

1156
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:14,439
Speaker 4: just what the doctor ordered for b ale Field.

1157
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:16,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's two teams that play kind of like a

1158
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 3: low blockie style generally, and it's and it's Bilfeld, right,

1159
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 3: and those are the kind of teams that just gave

1160
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 3: Byron some trouble the last Champions League run. So we'll see.

1161
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 3: I'm probably not betting it though.

1162
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 4: Anyways, Let's move to Spain. Uh, I'll go first year.

1163
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 4: I like Sevilla similarly to what I was just saying.

1164
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 4: They're taking on Real Madrid at three pm on Sunday.

1165
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 4: Real Madrid is definitely in the leftown spot here coming

1166
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 4: off of that emotional victory over Chelsea. Across the two legs,

1167
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 4: I think we could see a pretty shuffled starting eleven

1168
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 4: from Real Madrid to considering what they just went through.

1169
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 4: And that should set up well for Sevilla, who are

1170
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,919
Speaker 4: fourth in not penalty e spectacles allowed per ninety third

1171
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 4: and big chances allowed in lego and they should be

1172
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 4: able to handle this Real Madrid attack, which I don't

1173
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 4: think will have Kareem Benzima leading the charge. So I'll

1174
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 4: take Savia two to one against Los Blancos BJA. Anything

1175
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 4: for you in La Liga?

1176
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I have the most boring match of the

1177
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,879
Speaker 1: entire weekend. Alabas versus Reo Biacono. I mean, this line

1178
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 1: is a little bit crazy to be now. Alabase they're

1179
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 1: dead last, they're the worst team in Laaliga and their

1180
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 1: staring relegation in the face, and they're slightly home favorites

1181
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,799
Speaker 1: against Ryo Viocano. I mean, the reason that they are

1182
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: is because Viacano hasn't won a match since December eighteenth

1183
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one. And can you guess who that

1184
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: team they beat on that day was Alabase Alavase. They

1185
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 1: beat them to nothing, So that's how bad it's been

1186
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 1: for their runs since then.

1187
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:56,320
Speaker 2: They haven't won. They've picked up four points in twelve.

1188
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 1: Matches and have a minus thirteen gold differential, but they're

1189
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 1: expected goal different trill is only minus five point five.

1190
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:03,760
Speaker 2: Expected points is twelve point.

1191
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 1: Eight, so it's really not even close to as bad

1192
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 1: as it's been since that loss. As well, Alabas allowing

1193
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: around one point nine expected goals for match. They've allowed

1194
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 1: twenty seven big scoring chances in their last fourteen matches

1195
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 1: and things just have gone really really bad as of late,

1196
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 1: nine point two expected goals allowed in their last four matches. Offensively,

1197
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 1: Albates is They've been bad all season, but since that

1198
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 1: loss in December, they've created over one expected goal four

1199
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 1: times in their last fourteen matches. They're only averaging round

1200
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 1: point eight non penalty expected goals for the per match

1201
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 1: for the season and the main reason Viacano in that

1202
00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 1: match they dominated them. They won two nothing one on

1203
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: next year around one point nine to point six, but

1204
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:50,800
Speaker 1: Viacano just smothered them with their press I mean forty

1205
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 1: seven point nine percent pressure success rate and their passes

1206
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:57,280
Speaker 1: per defensive back two point six. I mean, that's basically

1207
00:56:57,320 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 1: one of the best pressing performances in La Liga this year,

1208
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 1: I mean overall for the season. That's I mean, it's

1209
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 1: not surprising because Biocont is fourth and pass per defensive

1210
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 1: action at Alabase is bottom three at playing through pressure,

1211
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 1: so I'm expecting another successful pressing performance from Viacano. I

1212
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: have them projected as a plus one thirty one road favorite.

1213
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 1: You could question motivation. I mean they're pretty stable there

1214
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 1: in the middle of the table while Alabas and they're

1215
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 1: in desperation mode. But I mean this is a horrible

1216
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: matchup for Alabas at home. So Ryo Viocano drawn no

1217
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 1: bets even money if it has fantastic value.

1218
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 4: All right, now down to Italy Syria, Anthony, what's your

1219
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 4: favorite bet there?

1220
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 3: So I'm actually gonna split my bet here, same game,

1221
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 3: two separate bets. Genoa team total over a half at

1222
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 3: plus one oh five Genoa plus one and a half

1223
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 3: minus one ten against Milan and let us a theme

1224
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,240
Speaker 3: of the last few weeks if you listen to me

1225
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 3: on this podcast, I'm going to keep fading this Milan

1226
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 3: team as the pressure mounts on this attack to produce

1227
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 3: enough chances to go win the title. They have now

1228
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 3: slipped up their last two matches at home against Bologna

1229
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 3: and on the road to aginst to Reno. But they

1230
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 3: haven't conceded. They've kept six consecutive clean sheets and they

1231
00:58:06,080 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 3: haven't It's not like they haven't been conceding chances. They

1232
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 3: got conceded more expected goals against Bolognia about point six

1233
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 3: and about point eight against to Reno. So they're conceding enough,

1234
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 3: not a ton of chances, but enough that you'd expect

1235
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 3: a team to eventually break through against them. It's not

1236
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 3: like they're completely shutting teams out from getting shots and chances.

1237
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 3: And I think Genowa is a team who, yes, they

1238
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 3: have really struggled to score throughout this entire season, and

1239
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 3: that's the main reason that they're pretty much in the

1240
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 3: relegation fight, but a lot of it has come from underperformance.

1241
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 3: They've only scored twenty four goals from thirty one expected,

1242
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 3: so you do expect that to come back at some point,

1243
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 3: and they have been fighting and playing pretty hard recently

1244
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 3: and really trying to stay up. So I do think

1245
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:49,560
Speaker 3: they'll be able to be competitive against an overvalued Milan

1246
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 3: who again is in that must win spot. I'm going

1247
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 3: to fade them here and looking at the schedule, probably

1248
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:59,440
Speaker 3: going to fade them when they play ooh, there's not

1249
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 3: many great eight spots coming up, but overall looking to

1250
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 3: play against them.

1251
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 4: BJ, what about you and Syria.

1252
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 1: I mean, this is I don't want to call it

1253
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 1: a game of the year because I feel like I've

1254
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:09,920
Speaker 1: had like seventy they call a game of the year

1255
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:10,439
Speaker 1: every week.

1256
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean this is.

1257
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 1: I mean it's Tarno plus one against Loatzio minus one

1258
00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 1: thirty five. I mean, if there ever was a game

1259
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 1: of the year at Italy, like this is it. I mean,

1260
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 1: Lazzio overperformance just has not stopped. I mean last weekend

1261
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 1: four goals against Genowa off of one point five expected.

1262
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:31,000
Speaker 1: Now that's sixty four goals in Syria AH off of

1263
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 1: forty six point five expected. It is comical at this

1264
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 1: point how much they are overperforming. Latzio is fourteenth and

1265
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: shots for ninety and second and big scoring chances. They

1266
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: just truly live or die by those high quality chances

1267
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 1: close inside the box. Well that's a problem when you

1268
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 1: face Erino, who we've talked about nauseum is one of

1269
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 1: the best defensive teams in Italy. They just held Milan

1270
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 1: to a zero zero draw and only point eight expected goals,

1271
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 1: which really isn't that surprising if you if you've been

1272
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 1: paying attention to Tono this season, I mean for this season,

1273
01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 1: they're only allowing point eighty four non penalty expected goals

1274
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 1: for match, ten point one shots per ninety and point

1275
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 1: seven to one big scoring chances per match, all of

1276
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 1: which are third in Syria A Toarno, the best pressing

1277
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 1: team in Syria A by passes per defensive action and

1278
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 1: pressure success rate. They're also second in terms of progressive

1279
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:24,640
Speaker 1: passes plus dribbles allowed, and are sixth in both high

1280
01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 1: turnovers and shots created off of high turnovers. And I

1281
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 1: understand Lasio is very good at playing through pressure, but

1282
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,000
Speaker 1: a lot of those stats come against the smaller sides

1283
01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:35,200
Speaker 1: who can't press effectively the way that Toarino can. I

1284
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 1: mean Latio, they really tend to struggle when they have

1285
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:40,280
Speaker 1: to face from the top defenses in Italy. Against the

1286
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:43,800
Speaker 1: top six defenses. By expected goals allowed per match, Loatzio

1287
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:47,120
Speaker 1: is allowing or averaging one point one expected goals per

1288
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 1: ninety and have a minus seven to expected goal defential

1289
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 1: in nine matches versus those teams. Against the rest of Syria,

1290
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 1: they average one point six expected goals per match and

1291
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 1: have a plus thirteen point three expect a goal official

1292
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 1: in twenty three match. And Torino, on the other hand,

1293
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:05,520
Speaker 1: plays incredibly well against the top six, only a minus

1294
01:01:05,600 --> 01:01:09,800
Speaker 1: point five expected gold differential in ten matches against top

1295
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 1: sixteenms in Syria.

1296
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 2: A So I mean I have this match when projected

1297
01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 2: right out of PICKAM.

1298
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 1: If we just straight up look at expected goal differential

1299
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 1: to Reno plus nine on the season, Lazio plus six

1300
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:22,479
Speaker 1: point three, it's insane that Loatsio is minus one fifty

1301
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 1: five at home. So give me Trino plus one, it's

1302
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,040
Speaker 1: still there at minus one forty, would play Torino plus

1303
01:01:27,080 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 1: half a goal at anything plus money, leve them on

1304
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: the money line, love them every possible way in this match.

1305
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 1: Motivation could be a factor, but I mean, this is

1306
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: about as good as a matchup as you're going to

1307
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 1: get for an underdog in Syria.

1308
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 4: Real quick, we'll go to France League. Ooh, Anthony, you've

1309
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:45,520
Speaker 4: got something for us in France this this week too.

1310
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:50,640
Speaker 3: A le lom Marseille plus one and a half against PSG.

1311
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 3: I had this spot circled weeks ago. I know BJ

1312
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 3: will call them a luck box and they have run

1313
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,280
Speaker 3: a bit well. But again, have you seen some of

1314
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 3: the goals to meet you Piot scored this season. Those

1315
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 3: are the things he does. But anyway, this defense is

1316
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 3: actually underrated. Actually, they're number one in preventing progressive passes

1317
01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 3: and number one in box entries allowed and number two

1318
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 3: and crosses allowed into the box, number one in shots allowed.

1319
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 3: Like this defense is legit. I know their attack has overperformed,

1320
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:18,479
Speaker 3: but their defense is good enough to kind of slow

1321
01:02:18,520 --> 01:02:22,760
Speaker 3: down PSG, who did just go absurd berserk Messi had

1322
01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:26,080
Speaker 3: three assists, Neymar had three goals and and Bappe had

1323
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 3: three goals against claimont Foot last weekend. Poor Claim on Foot.

1324
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 3: But this is a big step up and I do

1325
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 3: think Marseilles is undervalued here. I only think they should

1326
01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 3: be about a goal underdogs. I'm getting a goal and

1327
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:38,560
Speaker 3: a half. So I'm going to take Marseille, France's second

1328
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:41,680
Speaker 3: biggest city against PSG in Paris.

1329
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 4: And BJ a team near and dear to your heart.

1330
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, uh Leone and Bordeaux both teams a score at

1331
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 1: minus one point fifteen I think has some good value.

1332
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 1: I mean it's desperation time for both these clubs for

1333
01:02:55,120 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 1: different reasons. I mean, Leon there were within five points

1334
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 1: of a Europa League spot, Bordeaux is two points from

1335
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 1: safety to get out of their relegation zone. Two of

1336
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:06,800
Speaker 1: the highest event teams in Leon Leyones matches averaged a

1337
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:09,360
Speaker 1: little over three expected goals for match, while Bordeaux is

1338
01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 1: around two point nine to five. It's also worth noting

1339
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 1: that Bordeaux has only kept one clean sheet this season,

1340
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 1: and it's funny enough it was against Lil and Bordeaux

1341
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 1: played with ten men for about sixty minutes of the match,

1342
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 1: which is just just perfectly the way to end their

1343
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:30,360
Speaker 1: non clean sheet streak. Leyon offensively really really good round

1344
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 1: one point seven to two xchip per per ninety, their

1345
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:38,160
Speaker 1: top five and pretty much every single offensive metrics. They've

1346
01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 1: been on fire in the second half of the season.

1347
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 1: Since December twelfth, they have not been held under one

1348
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 1: expected goal and they get to face the worst defense

1349
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,479
Speaker 1: in France Bordeaux, allowing around one point nine x CHIEP

1350
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 1: per ninety allowed forty five big scoring chances in thirty

1351
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 1: one matches. On the flip side, though Bordeau's offense, it

1352
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 1: actually isn't that bad. I mean around one point one

1353
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes, but they are ninth in

1354
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:09,720
Speaker 1: shots per ninety eleventh and big scoring chances, so that's

1355
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 1: pretty good for the nineteenth place team.

1356
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 2: Additionally, the last time these two teams met, it was

1357
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 2: just pure chaos. It was a two to two draw.

1358
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: Four point seven expected goals were created, seven big scoring chances,

1359
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 1: five of which I might mention were created by Bordeaux,

1360
01:04:24,160 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 1: So I got the both team to score line projected

1361
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty six, so I like the value

1362
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen.

1363
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:33,439
Speaker 4: All right, with that, we will move on to our

1364
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 4: favorite underdogs, for the week BJ score right back to you.

1365
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 1: De breswas plus two thirty against Santien, who is somehow

1366
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five at home. I think this is

1367
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:49,840
Speaker 1: what you would call a motivation line because Sciantien is

1368
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:54,200
Speaker 1: trying to get out of the relegation playoff spot, while

1369
01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 1: SOT de breswat is pretty comfortable in the mid table.

1370
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:00,040
Speaker 1: But this line is just crazy. I mean, Santia and

1371
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:02,439
Speaker 1: minus seventeen expected gold in French on the season, while

1372
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: Brest is at minus nine point four. I mean sant

1373
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 1: Antienne they just got demolished by Lorient on Friday. I

1374
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:13,040
Speaker 1: mean they were up to nothing and conceded six goals.

1375
01:05:13,520 --> 01:05:17,160
Speaker 1: From that point on. They're one of the worst defenses

1376
01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:19,680
Speaker 1: in lee on around one point six x g per

1377
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 1: ninety allowed around forty around a little over forty big

1378
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 1: scoring chances last time these two teams met, I mean,

1379
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:29,160
Speaker 1: Brest pretty dominant one zero performances one point seven too

1380
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:31,840
Speaker 1: point seven x G. So this is what you call

1381
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 1: a little bit of a overinflated motivated motivation line for

1382
01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in France.

1383
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 2: So give me Breast plus two thirty.

1384
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 4: I am going with Brighton in a cell high spot

1385
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 4: on Tottenham Hotspur. We'll get to Tottenham in a second.

1386
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:49,680
Speaker 4: But this Brighton team, they are really struggling lately, but

1387
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:52,720
Speaker 4: we know, we know that their manager and their team

1388
01:05:52,880 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 4: are better than the one and six win draw loss

1389
01:05:57,200 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 4: run that they were on before defeating Arsenal at a

1390
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:04,120
Speaker 4: similar line five to one last weekend. Meanwhile, Spurs coming

1391
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 4: off a really really good stretch here in the Premier

1392
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:09,720
Speaker 4: League six ozhot one wind draw loss, twenty five goals

1393
01:06:09,800 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 4: four five goals against on sixteen point five expected goles.

1394
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 4: They're almost running ten goals hot and six point eight

1395
01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:20,080
Speaker 4: three expected goals against, so a little hot defensively. So

1396
01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:22,240
Speaker 4: I'm happy to sell high on Spurs against a team

1397
01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 4: that we know punches up really well as an underdog.

1398
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:27,320
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna be backing the Seagulls Brighton hov I'll

1399
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 4: be on five to one on the money line, Anthony,

1400
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:31,320
Speaker 4: what are you?

1401
01:06:31,920 --> 01:06:33,520
Speaker 3: I mentioned that I was better than plus a half.

1402
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:34,960
Speaker 3: I like them on the money line as well, at

1403
01:06:35,000 --> 01:06:38,000
Speaker 3: plus three twenty herta Berlin. I just think that if

1404
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:40,400
Speaker 3: they get up a here and they get ahead, Osburg's

1405
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:43,680
Speaker 3: attack has been so dreadful that they're not able to

1406
01:06:43,720 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 3: come back from behind here, and Hareta is the more

1407
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,800
Speaker 3: motivated team, the more desperate team. I understand they're on

1408
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:49,800
Speaker 3: the road, but I only make them plus two to

1409
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 3: fifty here, So I like Harta.

1410
01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:55,919
Speaker 4: You wrap all three teams, all three of those underdogs together.

1411
01:06:56,080 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 4: Eighty two to one is the three leg parlay. We'll

1412
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:00,560
Speaker 4: see if that one good about it?

1413
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 3: This one, yeah, this one, this is I don't anymore.

1414
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:03,960
Speaker 3: I lost all.

1415
01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:07,480
Speaker 1: I just feel I just want one of these underdogs

1416
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:09,080
Speaker 1: to hit, and I'll let the listeners try to figure

1417
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:09,880
Speaker 1: out which one that is.

1418
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:15,440
Speaker 4: All right, Let's move on to our favorite bets. It's

1419
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 4: definitely not stoted the resoir, but I do I do

1420
01:07:18,680 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 4: actually feel good about this one, eighty two to one

1421
01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 4: if you're putting that one in right after we finished

1422
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:26,040
Speaker 4: recording here. But before I do that, we'll give out

1423
01:07:26,040 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 4: our favorite bets in the Premier League this weekend. Anthony,

1424
01:07:29,920 --> 01:07:30,240
Speaker 4: who do you.

1425
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:34,640
Speaker 3: Got Burnley plus a half at plus one twenty. I

1426
01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 3: think the Clarits are a little undervalued here. You're getting

1427
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 3: west Ham coming down off of a brutal spot. They

1428
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:41,640
Speaker 3: just had to go on the road to France to

1429
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:43,959
Speaker 3: Leon to play the second leg of the Europa League.

1430
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:46,400
Speaker 3: That is their main priority right now because they're trying

1431
01:07:46,400 --> 01:07:50,040
Speaker 3: to get into the Champions League. And Burnley has some

1432
01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:52,360
Speaker 3: ability to get some cross into the box here. And

1433
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:55,720
Speaker 3: I'm concerned about west Ham's defense. They're only seventeenth against crosses,

1434
01:07:56,040 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 3: sixteenth against box entries, and they just lost their best

1435
01:07:59,080 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 3: defender and Hurt Zuma to injury for the year. So

1436
01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:05,840
Speaker 3: this west Ham attack, they only had five shots last

1437
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:09,840
Speaker 3: week against Brentford. They've been falling off a little bit.

1438
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:12,720
Speaker 3: And this team is generally overvalued because of how well

1439
01:08:12,760 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 3: they performed earlier in the season. They've been falling apart

1440
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:17,720
Speaker 3: ever since. And so I'm taking the Clarence, the more

1441
01:08:17,760 --> 01:08:21,080
Speaker 3: desperate team plus a half at plus one twenty, I'll

1442
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:21,559
Speaker 3: go next.

1443
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 4: And sometimes it's hip to b Square, I'll be taking Brentford.

1444
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:29,719
Speaker 4: They're plus one sixty traveling to Watford on Saturday morning.

1445
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 4: Watford's lost nine home games in a row. They're one

1446
01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 4: one in four in their last six, with four goals

1447
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:39,280
Speaker 4: for thirteen goals against five point three five expected goals

1448
01:08:39,320 --> 01:08:42,280
Speaker 4: in nine point three six expectacles against. It's been ugly

1449
01:08:42,400 --> 01:08:45,600
Speaker 4: for the Hornets. Meanwhile, the Bees are buzzing four to

1450
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:47,960
Speaker 4: zero to one win. Drug lost twelve goals for four

1451
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:52,960
Speaker 4: goals against, including a monumental win against Chelsea. Sometimes you

1452
01:08:53,080 --> 01:08:55,200
Speaker 4: just got to drown out the noise in your head

1453
01:08:55,240 --> 01:08:57,360
Speaker 4: that's telling you you're buying way too high on a

1454
01:08:57,439 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 4: team and just back the spot. Brentford should give Watford

1455
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:03,719
Speaker 4: a ton of trouble with their press. Watford just doesn't

1456
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:05,840
Speaker 4: have the ball movers to beat it. So I'll be

1457
01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 4: taking the Bees to beat the Hornets on Saturday. Plus

1458
01:09:09,520 --> 01:09:11,639
Speaker 4: one sixty on Brentford BJ.

1459
01:09:11,960 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 3: What do you have?

1460
01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:15,719
Speaker 1: Lester? John o'bett at plus one forty on the road

1461
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:18,439
Speaker 1: at Newcastle In terms of spots, this is not a

1462
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 1: great one for Lester coming off a Europa Conference League

1463
01:09:21,439 --> 01:09:25,680
Speaker 1: match against PSV in the Netherlands on Thursday, but the

1464
01:09:25,840 --> 01:09:30,000
Speaker 1: market has drastically overrated Newcastle over the past few weeks.

1465
01:09:30,040 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 1: They closed at plus one fifteen against Wolves at home,

1466
01:09:32,439 --> 01:09:34,880
Speaker 1: which is just a crazy price. Now they're plus one

1467
01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:37,200
Speaker 1: twenty five at home against the lesser team that. Yes,

1468
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:40,360
Speaker 1: they've been overforming. They haven't been that great defensively, but

1469
01:09:40,960 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 1: Newcastle over their last twelve matches, essentially since the start

1470
01:09:44,800 --> 01:09:47,080
Speaker 1: of the January transfer window, they have picked up the

1471
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:49,880
Speaker 1: third most points in the Premier League, but over that

1472
01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 1: same time span they have about seven points less in

1473
01:09:53,080 --> 01:09:56,640
Speaker 1: terms of their expected points, so they've been overperforming pretty drastically.

1474
01:09:56,920 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 1: Lester did get Johnny Evans, one of their best center

1475
01:09:59,600 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 1: backs back the last few matches. Only one point three

1476
01:10:02,800 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 1: xg allowed against Man United, point four to seven allowed

1477
01:10:05,880 --> 01:10:08,599
Speaker 1: against PSB in the first leg of the Europa Conference League,

1478
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 1: and then one point three with a penalty against Crystal

1479
01:10:11,560 --> 01:10:14,800
Speaker 1: Palace this past weekend, so the defense has improved a

1480
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:18,360
Speaker 1: little bit with him back there, playing alongside Sionku. Then

1481
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:20,120
Speaker 1: when these two teams met the first time, I mean

1482
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:23,000
Speaker 1: less you're drilled and four nothing two point five expected

1483
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:26,519
Speaker 1: goals off of only seven shots, So incredibly efficient performance

1484
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:28,320
Speaker 1: for the Foxes. I just can't get there on the

1485
01:10:28,400 --> 01:10:31,160
Speaker 1: number on Newcastle if you look around other projection sites.

1486
01:10:31,479 --> 01:10:34,120
Speaker 1: I mean five point thirty eight has Newcastle at thirty

1487
01:10:34,200 --> 01:10:36,479
Speaker 1: nine percent. Info Goal has him at forty one percent.

1488
01:10:37,000 --> 01:10:40,080
Speaker 1: So plus one twenty five at forty five percent, I

1489
01:10:40,120 --> 01:10:42,200
Speaker 1: mean that's a little bit overvalued for Newcastle. Here in

1490
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:44,840
Speaker 1: the market, I only have them at plus one sixty three,

1491
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:45,479
Speaker 1: So I.

1492
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:48,439
Speaker 2: Like the Foxes. John Obett at plus one forty on

1493
01:10:48,520 --> 01:10:49,639
Speaker 2: the road at Saint James Park.

1494
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:53,280
Speaker 4: Right that wraps up a another episode of Wonder Goal.

1495
01:10:53,439 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 4: We will be back with you guys on Monday morning

1496
01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 4: to talk about some midweek Premier League matches.

1497
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Speaker 3: A fall from a famous hill