1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll and 2 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our 4 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg. 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 2: About Trump, well, there are a lot of things that 6 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 2: I don't agree with. I've said it and I'll repeat it. 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 2: I think, for example, that the issue of international law 8 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: is something that needs to be widely defended. 9 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: We might see things differently, but the fundamentalism of Trump 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: is you tell the electorate I'm going to do X, 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 1: and you actually do it. 12 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 3: And that's what he's doing. Trump is returning to the 13 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 3: Monroe doctrine, whatever the cost. As for the claims made 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 3: on the Danish territory of Greenland, they constitute a direct 15 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 3: challenge to the sovereignty of a European country. 16 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: It's a change of tone from some of Donald Trump's 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: biggest supporters in Europe. Georgia Maloney, Nigel Faraj and Jordan 18 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: Bardella's National Rally Party have talked up their connections to 19 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: Donald Trump in the past, winning special praise and even 20 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: White House visits with the US President. But Trump's aggressive 21 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: talk about taking control of Greenland, including threatening Tariff's has 22 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 1: changed the political calculations. Here's why Europe's far right parties 23 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: are rethinking their ties to Trump. Our managing editor for 24 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: European Economics and Government, Ben Sales, joins us now for more. Ben, 25 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 1: First of all, can you remind us who are these 26 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 1: political leaders in Europe who are seen as being closest 27 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 1: to Trump and what have they gained from their connections 28 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: to them? 29 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 3: Well? I think the first one is probably Georgia Maloney, 30 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: obviously the Prime minister there. She's an interesting figure within 31 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 3: the far right, definitely part of the family, but more 32 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 3: moderate than several others. She has clearly struck up a 33 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 3: rapport with Trump. He's quite charmed by her, and that 34 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:03,559 Speaker 3: has allowed her to elevate her role on the international 35 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 3: stage quite clearly. Even though I think her contact and 36 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 3: her influence with the White House is somewhat uneven and 37 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 3: it's emittant, it's certainly a card she can play. Beyond Maloney, 38 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 3: I think the two most important people that we need 39 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: to watch at the moment are Marine Lapenne, currently on 40 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:24,399 Speaker 3: trial in France, and Alice Wedel in Germany. La Penn 41 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 3: obviously has been the long running leader of the French 42 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 3: Fire Right National Rally, as it's called now. If she 43 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,079 Speaker 3: is cleared in her trials, she will be a favorite 44 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 3: to replace mccroonnor's president in twenty twenty seven. If not, 45 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 3: her successor is lined up a much younger figure called 46 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: Jordan Bardella, and then in Germany Alice Webel of the 47 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 3: Alternative for Germany. She's not struck up much of a 48 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,959 Speaker 3: relationship with Trump so far, but she's been something of 49 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 3: a darling for some of the nativists around Trump. Jade 50 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 3: Vance met with her when he was in Eunich last year, 51 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 3: or on a trip when he actually snubbed the chancellor 52 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 3: at the time. Will Af Schultz and Elon Musk also 53 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 3: went out of his way to help Vidal in the 54 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 3: run up to last year's German election, doing an extensive 55 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 3: online interview with her. Those of the three that we're 56 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 3: looking at, Vidal and Maloney have to us clearly benefited 57 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 3: from that relationship. Lapen has to play it in a 58 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 3: slightly different way. She is sympathetic to the White House, 59 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 3: but because of France's kind of intrinsic skepticism about the US, 60 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 3: she tries to take a more kind of carefully balanced line. 61 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: I would say another careful balance these leaders have fact 62 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: to strike has been reacting to Donald Trump ramping up 63 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: his rhetoric on Greenland. Now, after talks and Davos, he 64 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: pulled back from the threat of new tariffs. But what 65 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: was telling about how they initially responded to those repeated 66 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: comments from the US President about wanting to own Greenland. 67 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 3: The difference is that demanding that Denmark handover Greenland is 68 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 3: a direct threat to the sovereignty of any new country. 69 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 3: And while nationalists might have a similar sort of political philosophy, 70 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 3: a similar sort of vibe, a similar sort of kind 71 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 3: of emerge from a similar sort of culture. Ultimately, nationalism 72 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 3: as an ideology, which is promoting the interests of your country, 73 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 3: nationalists are not natural allies really in the final reckoning, 74 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: and so Trump's aim to kind of expand US territory 75 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 3: by taking Greenland kind of runs into the national interest 76 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 3: and the patriotic sentiments of Europeans. So that just means 77 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 3: it's it's a real kind of tricky thing for these 78 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 3: leaders to deal with, and in fact, we've seen over 79 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 3: the last week or so that a number of them 80 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 3: have actually come out quite clearly to size Trump with 81 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 3: his Greenland aspirations. 82 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: You made the distinction from Georgia Maloney to the other 83 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: figures you're talking about, because, of course, George Maloney is 84 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: in power in Italy. She's the leader of a major 85 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: European economy. By changing tone on Trump and saying there 86 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 1: are things that she doesn't agree with with him, is 87 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: she taking a risk that Italy could be singled out 88 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: by the Trump administration? 89 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:28,359 Speaker 3: Very much so. We saw that the European countries who 90 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 3: have been most clearly supportive of Denmark in the Greenland dispute, 91 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:37,799 Speaker 3: as well as the UK Norway were targeted with another 92 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 3: threat of tariffs from the US. We know that the 93 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 3: Italian officials around Maloney are extremely anxious about getting sucked 94 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 3: into that dispute. Maloney has come out with some I 95 00:05:55,040 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 3: think quite carefully calibrated criticism of the White House. Like 96 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 3: all of these leaders, she feels a certain obligation to 97 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 3: her voters to speak out about this, but she definitely 98 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 3: doesn't want to attract too much attention from the White House, 99 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 3: that's for sure. 100 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: What about the political calculation being made by some of 101 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: those other parties then, who are in opposition the likes 102 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: of the National rally or reform UK. Trump isn't popular 103 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: in France or in the UK, according to Poling. So 104 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: how are these parties thinking about how they discuss Donald Trump? 105 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: And why does it matter more now than it did 106 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 1: before the Greenland rhetoric was ramped up. 107 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's complicated, I think. I mean, the jingoistic American 108 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 3: nationalism that you hear coming out of the White House 109 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 3: plays badly in both the UK and France. However, when 110 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 3: you see Trump bullying or mocking or undermining or criticizing 111 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 3: Kissed or Emmanuel Macron, that probably plays quite well for 112 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 3: both Faraje and La Penn And beyond that. One of 113 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 3: the things that Trump has done, not on his own, 114 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 3: but as part of this broader resurgence of right wing 115 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 3: populist parties that we've seen over the past decade. What 116 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 3: they've all done is shift the norms, the norms of 117 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 3: what's accepted, the norms of what can be said in 118 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 3: public discourse, the norms of what voters feel is acceptable 119 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 3: to support. And that shift in the culture really upstream 120 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 3: of the kind of the day to day politics of 121 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 3: which parties up and which parties down. That shift in 122 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 3: the culture has really helped both Reform and the National 123 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 3: Rally to reach this position where Reform is clearly the 124 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 3: most popular party in the u K at the moment 125 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 3: based on opinion polls. French political systems slightly more complicated, 126 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 3: but the pen is clearly in the center of the 127 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 3: stage and would be the favorite to replace Macron, assuming 128 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 3: you know, as we said earlier, that she can get 129 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 3: past this legal problem that she's facing. 130 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: Should we think about this as being a permanent shift 131 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: away from Trump for these political figures or parties, or 132 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: could we see these parties realign themselves towards the US 133 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: president again in the future. 134 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 3: That's a cool question. I think that we are seeing 135 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 3: a permanent shift in the Transatlantic relationship which is driven 136 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 3: by Trump, and I think that all of these far 137 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 3: right parties need to respond to that and adjust their 138 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 3: positions based on that shift. In the broader context, I 139 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 3: do think if you read the national Security strategy from 140 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: the US that came out early December, it's clear that 141 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 3: the White House is investing a lot of hope in 142 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 3: these nationalist movements in Europe, and if they were to 143 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 3: come to power, the Trump people would be keen to 144 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 3: engage pretty closely with them. And you know, if you 145 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 3: look over the next few years, Maloney's already in power, 146 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 3: Farage is way ahead in the polls la Pen's got 147 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 3: a very realistic shot winning in France next year. VI 148 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 3: there is a longer shot, but you could. You know, 149 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 3: it's not beyond the rents of possibility that she could 150 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 3: that she could make it. So you could have three, 151 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 3: probably not four, but three of the biggest economies in 152 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 3: Europe all run by right wing parties within the next 153 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 3: three four years. And in that scenario, the US right 154 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 3: would be extremely pleased, and I'm sure that they would 155 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 3: be looking to deepen ties with those leaders, although in 156 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 3: the context of a transatlantic relationship which looks very very 157 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 3: different from the one that we've been used to for 158 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 3: the last several decades. 159 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: Really, Ben, thanks so much for joining us. Ben sils Our, 160 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 1: Managing editor for European Economics and Government. Thank you For 161 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: more explanations like this from our team of three thousand 162 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: journalists and analysts around the world, go to Bloomberg dot 163 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: com slash explainers. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is here's why. 164 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: I'll be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.