Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman matt fd Oracle. Welcome to
Speaker 1: the Betting FROs Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,
Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet about two
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Speaker 1: betting Pros with your first deposit. Right here with me
Speaker 1: to talk NFL Week fourteen best Bets is Jessica grid
Speaker 1: Iron of The Action Network. Jessica, we're we're like in
Speaker 1: the home stretch of the season. Next week we have
Speaker 1: three games on Saturday, and when we start to get
Speaker 1: Saturday games, that's officially when my brain sees the end
Speaker 1: of the season insight, Like, how has the season gone
Speaker 1: for you so far?
Speaker 2: The I know it's it's exciting and said at the
Speaker 2: same time, I agree with you, but so far the
Speaker 2: season has gone pretty well.
Speaker 3: I've had definitely had some.
Speaker 2: Good weeks and then I've had some soso you know
Speaker 2: weeks as well, But overall, I'm happy with the season
Speaker 2: so far, and it's been fun and exciting overall.
Speaker 1: Yeah, last week one of the best NFL weeks I've
Speaker 1: ever had. So I'm just waiting, like I know, regression
Speaker 1: is going to strike, like the Empire. Just I know,
Speaker 1: some some point I'm gonna have a really bad week,
Speaker 1: just hoping it's not this week. But all right, this
Speaker 1: morning I published on Betting Pros my projected spreads for
Speaker 1: every games and per usual established betting positions earlier in
Speaker 1: the week. Still some games that I like, though, and
Speaker 1: Jessica has some bets that she likes as well, so
Speaker 1: we're going to we're gonna cover those. I'm gonna start
Speaker 1: with the Bills hosting the Jets minus nine and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites. And by the way, God do the
Speaker 1: plug here, we're giving away a free signed Isaiah McKenzie
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills many helmets from Pristine Auction. If you want
Speaker 1: a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now and comment below on the video.
Speaker 1: We will announce a winner in a future episode, So
Speaker 1: turn on those notifications, all right. I think my rationale
Speaker 1: for this bet of Bills nine minus nine and a half,
Speaker 1: it's it's pretty straightforward. You know. I think they're just
Speaker 1: significantly better. That's that's the thesis there. But you know,
Speaker 1: I think anything less than ten is not enough. When
Speaker 1: the Jets hosted the Bills in Week nine, the Bills
Speaker 1: were minus ten and a half, and yeah, they did
Speaker 1: use that game, and the Jets are better with Mike
Speaker 1: White a quarterback versus Zach Wilson. But the Bills are
Speaker 1: now at home at high Mark Stadium. I think they
Speaker 1: have a significant home field advantage, and they're only nine
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, and that doesn't add up,
Speaker 1: especially when you take into account that the Bills are
Speaker 1: playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets
Speaker 1: are on a three to four away streak, so you
Speaker 1: know they they are living on the road at this point.
Speaker 1: And the difference between these two teams, like it is,
Speaker 1: it is significant. In the massive Peabody Power rankings, the
Speaker 1: Bills are seven point nine to one points better than
Speaker 1: an average team on a neutral field, the Jets minus
Speaker 1: two point h nine points. So there's, you know, like
Speaker 1: I would just say, in general, like a nine or
Speaker 1: ten point difference between these two teams. And then you
Speaker 1: add on home field advantage and the extra rest that
Speaker 1: the Bills have, and I think that pushes this pretty
Speaker 1: cleanly over nine and a half for me. And I
Speaker 1: know that we've seen back to back three hundred yard
Speaker 1: passing games out of Mike White. He's un quitem b
Speaker 1: lean upgrade on Zach Wilson, but I think it's too
Speaker 1: early for us to assume that he's actually like a
Speaker 1: quote unquote good quarterback, like he probably isn't. Just last
Speaker 1: year in Week nine, he had an abysmal game against
Speaker 1: the Bills. Had a fifty four point six percent completion rate,
Speaker 1: one point six of justice yards per attempt. Like that
Speaker 1: is like sub Blake Bortles, like Bortals, that's like Nathan
Speaker 1: Peterman esque for interceptions he threw in that game. He's
Speaker 1: almost certainly better than the typical third string quarterback, but
Speaker 1: like that's what he is. He's a third string quarterback,
Speaker 1: like he's yet to prove himself to be a starter
Speaker 1: caliber player. So I think anything less than ten offers
Speaker 1: value on the Bills. I don't know if you have
Speaker 1: any opinion on this game? Do you do? You have
Speaker 1: a position or any thoughts?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, as you know, as you can tell, I'm
Speaker 2: a Dolphins fan, you know if you look kind me
Speaker 2: so overall, I dis like both of these teams a ton,
Speaker 2: I'll just put that out there, but I always tend
Speaker 2: to lean towards the dogs, and I agree with you.
Speaker 2: You know, the Bills are one of the top three
Speaker 2: teams in the league, but I can't take favorites in
Speaker 2: the divisional game. I also, you know the Deat's defense,
Speaker 2: it's significantly improved this year, and I think they can
Speaker 2: get a couple stops on defense and an offense. As
Speaker 2: you mentioned, Mike White is almost one of the games
Speaker 2: outright last week. You know, he won the game outright
Speaker 2: last week against the Vikings. So if he can limit
Speaker 2: his turnovers and improve his third down conversion rate, he
Speaker 2: could be a serviceable quarterback.
Speaker 3: In my opinion, they almost won the game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're skeptical of my position here. Yep, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's fair. It feels dirty, like I hate. It's so
Speaker 1: weird because like it feels dirty, like the want to
Speaker 1: be sharp in my brain feels dirty taking a big favorite,
Speaker 1: and then the like definite square in my brain feels
Speaker 1: dirty when I take a big underdog. So there's always
Speaker 1: this battle that I have within myself about what to
Speaker 1: do when I'm betting here. But yeah, I mean, I
Speaker 1: have this projected at let me see where do I
Speaker 1: have this projected? I have this projected at eleven point
Speaker 1: twenty five, So I am well on the other side
Speaker 1: of ten here, but maybe I'm wrong. You mentioned that
Speaker 1: you are a Dolphins fan, but you are going against
Speaker 1: your Dolphins this week. You like the Chargers hosting the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: and right now this number is, you know, kind of
Speaker 1: vacillating between three three and a half in the market.
Speaker 1: What do you see in this game that is putting
Speaker 1: you on the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I like the Chargers plus three and a
Speaker 2: half because everyone is going to expect a major bounce
Speaker 2: back from the Dolphins this week, but I'm expecting a
Speaker 2: two week road hiatus to affect the Dolphins' ability to
Speaker 2: get into a routine. That being said, you're going to
Speaker 2: give me a three and a half line where I'll
Speaker 2: gladly take the home dogs to stay within a field goal.
Speaker 2: And you know, everyone knows about Miami's offense, so nothing
Speaker 2: needs to be said about that.
Speaker 3: But it's their defense. It's middle of the.
Speaker 2: Road, and Justin Herbert should be able to pick apart
Speaker 2: the middle of the field. Similarly how rookie nine Ers
Speaker 2: quarterback Brock Purty did last week. You have a quarterback
Speaker 2: in Herbert who has more experience and of course a
Speaker 2: bigger arm. To make the Dolphins defense pay. One big
Speaker 2: factor that has overlooked on this Miami team is a
Speaker 2: special teams unit, where they are the worst in the NFL.
Speaker 1: You have.
Speaker 3: The eighth worst kickoff.
Speaker 2: Return success tenth worst punt return success in the NFL,
Speaker 2: and then you add in the fact that kicker Jason
Speaker 2: Sanders comes in as the seventh worst in the league
Speaker 2: as field goals and extra points. I mean, I think
Speaker 2: the Dolphins will be leaving points on the board and
Speaker 2: they'll lose the field position battle all game, which will
Speaker 2: keep the Chargers closer than people expect. Also, the Dolphins
Speaker 2: have the sixth worth net average in the league per
Speaker 2: punt at thirty nine point eight. So I really wouldn't
Speaker 2: rely much on this on special teams in a normal
Speaker 2: scenario while handicapping, but with the Dolphins team that will
Speaker 2: be out of their normal routine, I'm expecting this to
Speaker 2: come into play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting, Okay, So I will say if I
Speaker 1: had to bet on this game, I would be on
Speaker 1: the Chargers, and my numbers do show value on the Chargers.
Speaker 1: One thing that gives me a little bit of pause,
Speaker 1: So I guess two things. One is that Miami they
Speaker 1: are cross country, you know, traveling east to west, but
Speaker 1: they did stay out on the West coast because they
Speaker 1: played the forty nine Ers, and so I think the
Speaker 1: normal road disadvantage that we would expect to see from
Speaker 1: a traveling team maybe we don't see that quite as
Speaker 1: much with the Dolphins. But the bigger thing is the
Speaker 1: injury situation for the Chargers with right tackle Trey Pipkins,
Speaker 1: center Corey Lensley, and wide receiver Mike Williams. If I
Speaker 1: knew those three guys were going to play well, of course,
Speaker 1: if the market knew those three guys were playing this
Speaker 1: number one, it'd be three and a half, right, But like,
Speaker 1: those are really important positions for the team, you know,
Speaker 1: like Mike Williams as the bigger body, downfilled option in
Speaker 1: that offense. Lind's as you know, the anchor within that
Speaker 1: offensive line. I think he's one of the better centers
Speaker 1: in the league and really important to what they're doing
Speaker 1: on offense. And then right tackle Trey Pipkins, who it's
Speaker 1: not so much that he's great, but he's way better
Speaker 1: than Storm Norton, and so it's just you kind of
Speaker 1: put it all together, and if those three guys are there.
Speaker 1: I really do like the Chargers, and I would be
Speaker 1: interested in them on the money line, Like because my
Speaker 1: number is showing value, this number is three, I haven't
Speaker 1: projected at one point twenty five. Uh, And that's like
Speaker 1: kind of assuming that those three guys are likelier than
Speaker 1: not to be out. But I just gotta say, I
Speaker 1: sort of know there's like snowballing catastrophe potential if those
Speaker 1: three guys are out. So I'm with you in that,
Speaker 1: Like this is the side I would bet, but I
Speaker 1: just I haven't been able to do it yet. I
Speaker 1: just kind of want to see a little more on
Speaker 1: the injury reports. It's some sort of sense about whether
Speaker 1: those guys might be in or out. Do you have
Speaker 1: any thoughts on the injury situation for the charge?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I was also just gonna mention too,
Speaker 2: like I agree with you, you know, with the Dolphins stay
Speaker 2: in California, but we are fond of of routines and
Speaker 2: they won't have their usual routine and I just don't
Speaker 2: think iowa sorry, I do think that Herbert will be
Speaker 2: running for.
Speaker 3: His life, but I still feel like he's going to
Speaker 3: find some open looks.
Speaker 2: I have a minus one point seven for the Finns also,
Speaker 2: so according to my projections.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're pretty close. We're pretty close there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I and I also think having offensive line
Speaker 2: worries for the Chargers is legitimate. But we'll have to
Speaker 2: make plays like we like we've seen him do.
Speaker 1: Yeah. All right, So a game that you and I
Speaker 1: are both on and this this one is really disgusting
Speaker 1: and is like testing my my fortitude and willingness to
Speaker 1: bet on games and also just to watch an NFL game.
Speaker 1: But the Broncos hosting the Chiefs. This number is nine
Speaker 1: in and a half And by the way, you know
Speaker 1: nine and a half across the market, but nine and
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM. Weare reminder you can use
Speaker 1: the risk free bet of a thousand dollars when you
Speaker 1: use a highly original probo co betting pros with your
Speaker 1: first deposit. Okay, uh, the the Broncos at nine and
Speaker 1: a half. This this really is an interesting situation because
Speaker 1: you know, Russell Wilson has been horrible, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: I can't I can't describe the the difference, like the
Speaker 1: delta between what we would have expected when the year
Speaker 1: started and all the enthusiasm and if you look at
Speaker 1: any of the the look ahead markets for the off
Speaker 1: season and where these lines were projected months in advance.
Speaker 1: I mean they are, they are so off it's just incredible.
Speaker 1: But you know, I have to I still look at
Speaker 1: this game and I think, like, where is the on
Speaker 1: field edge for the Chiefs? Like betting on the Broncos
Speaker 1: is disgusting, there's no denying it, But like, I'm backing
Speaker 1: a big divisional doll at home where the elevation provides
Speaker 1: a true edge for the Broncos. And I like that
Speaker 1: general scenario. And you know, as cringey as Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: has been this season on and off the field with
Speaker 1: those ridiculous commercials, he's still four and two against the
Speaker 1: spread as an underdog, historically very good against the spread
Speaker 1: for his career as an underdog. And the Chiefs, I
Speaker 1: just don't see them having an on field edge, Like really,
Speaker 1: obviously they're the better team. But I'm probably higher on
Speaker 1: the Chiefs than most people are, and I still have
Speaker 1: them as the number one team in my power ratings.
Speaker 1: I tend to be too high on them each week,
Speaker 1: but I still see value on the Broncos here, And
Speaker 1: like that's saying something so on offense the Chiefs, right,
Speaker 1: great team number one and drop back EPA number two
Speaker 1: and drop back success rate number two and past dvoa.
Speaker 1: The thing is they're going against one of the best
Speaker 1: secondaries in the league, right, the Broncos number three in
Speaker 1: drop back EPA, number one in drop back success rate.
Speaker 1: Like this is not like an easy passing matchup for
Speaker 1: the offense for the Chiefs, and the Chiefs aren't really
Speaker 1: all that good running the ball. The Broncos about average
Speaker 1: and run defense actually number eleven in rush success rate,
Speaker 1: you know, so like it's not as if the offense
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, which drives the team, has a really
Speaker 1: great matchup in front of them. And then the Broncos defense, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's not likely to shut down the Chiefs offense, but
Speaker 1: like slow down Patrick Mahomes, and you know, with a
Speaker 1: spread of nine and a half in a total of
Speaker 1: just forty four points, slowing down Mahomes might be enough
Speaker 1: to get the cover and the Broncos offense obviously massive
Speaker 1: disadvantage relative to the offense of the Chiefs, but not
Speaker 1: a massive disadvantage relative to the Chiefs defense. Drop back
Speaker 1: EPA of twenty four for the offense for the Broncos
Speaker 1: twenty five for the Chiefs defense. Like, these two teams
Speaker 1: are kind of even in terms of like the offensive
Speaker 1: versus defensive matchups that we see. So I think the
Speaker 1: Broncos they're gonna be challenging the running game, but they're
Speaker 1: not good there. But what does that matter? Like the
Speaker 1: running game doesn't matter when you're a double digit dog,
Speaker 1: you're going to be throwing the ball anyway. And the
Speaker 1: Chiefs have a blow average pass defense. So I doubt
Speaker 1: that the Broncos win. But the Chiefs throughout the years
Speaker 1: have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering
Speaker 1: the large spreads, and I think we see that happen here.
Speaker 1: So I think anything more than seven is too much
Speaker 1: for the Broncos at home. And I'll just close out
Speaker 1: this dietribe here. Russell wilson career stats might not matter
Speaker 1: because like there's there's a case to be made, real
Speaker 1: case to be made. He is no longer Russell Wilson,
Speaker 1: but Russell Wilson five to zero against the spread as
Speaker 1: an underdog of more than seven points for his career.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes eleven sixteen and one against the spread as
Speaker 1: a favorite of more than seven points. So it's it's
Speaker 1: one of those like, I'm not gonna be watching this
Speaker 1: game at all. I'm not gonna be looking at it
Speaker 1: on my phone tracking it because looking at it will
Speaker 1: probably give me a heart attack. But I'm going to
Speaker 1: be betting it and then just at the end of Sunday,
Speaker 1: I'm going to be looking to see what happened here.
Speaker 1: Do you have opinions? We're on the same side of this.
Speaker 1: We're i mean, tell me why it is that you
Speaker 1: are sick oh enough to be betting on this game.
Speaker 3: Now, I agree with you.
Speaker 2: Probably the only time I'll be watching this game is
Speaker 2: if it pops up on the you know, red zone.
Speaker 2: But here we are with the divisional dog again, divisional
Speaker 2: dog again. But I'll keep this short and sweet because
Speaker 2: you really went into a lot of detail already, you know,
Speaker 2: But like you said, it's a divisional game.
Speaker 3: It's strength versus strength.
Speaker 2: Here you highlighted extremely you know how well the Chiefs
Speaker 2: offense is and how it's arguably one of the best
Speaker 2: in the league's right now, but they are going against
Speaker 2: one of the best defenses in the league. And just
Speaker 2: like we were talking about, it's a divisional matchup. So
Speaker 2: I expect this game to be stay within a touchdown
Speaker 2: considering just how well these two teams know each other,
Speaker 2: and that really might just be the biggest factor at
Speaker 2: the end of the day.
Speaker 3: And like you said, you know, maybe there's a day Russ.
Speaker 3: Maybe Russ took some cooking.
Speaker 2: Classes and he's ready to cook this, you know, this
Speaker 2: weekend and we'll see.
Speaker 3: I mean, Broncos, let's ride baby.
Speaker 1: No, that guy is eating raw food. He's not cooking anything.
Speaker 1: I've just projected at Broncos plus seven point twenty five.
Speaker 1: Where do you have it?
Speaker 2: Ooh, you know, I have it actually at eight, so
Speaker 2: we're kind of right there.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, all right. So a game that you are,
Speaker 1: another divisional game that you're looking at here, divisional dog
Speaker 1: that you like the Browns And this opened at four
Speaker 1: and a half I think in the look ahead market
Speaker 1: last week it was three and a half. Opened on
Speaker 1: Sunday night at four and a half, was bet up
Speaker 1: all the way to six and then now has moved
Speaker 1: back to five and a half. So there has been
Speaker 1: some money coming in on the Browns recently, the Browns
Speaker 1: on the road at the Bengals. You like the Browns here,
Speaker 1: divisional dog five and a half. Talk to me about
Speaker 1: what you like with this team?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, sell the Bengals by the Browns. Reason
Speaker 2: behind that is this is game number two of Deshaun
Speaker 2: Watson in the offense, and I expect significant improvement from
Speaker 2: last week's game. This is, like you mentioned, it's a
Speaker 2: divisional matchup with two heated rivals, and with Deshaun Watson suspended,
Speaker 2: this Brown's offense has still managed to be top ten
Speaker 2: in DBOA and EPA. Actually, and we know by now
Speaker 2: that they love to run the ball. It's one of
Speaker 2: the highest it's one of the highest rates in the
Speaker 2: league right now. And do you know what the Bengals
Speaker 2: defense is bad at stopping the run? They are actually
Speaker 2: ranked twenty six and defensive rush EPA. And while Deshaun
Speaker 2: is still getting acclimated to this offense, I expect the
Speaker 2: Browns to employ a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and
Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt and then look at them defensively. You have
Speaker 2: the Browns numbers are not that great this season, and
Speaker 2: I expect these numbers to change over time as the
Speaker 2: offense continues to improve.
Speaker 3: Give them more rest in between drives.
Speaker 2: So like I mentioned I'm selling on the Bengals at
Speaker 2: what I consider to be the high point season for them,
Speaker 2: and because they are coming off of a four game
Speaker 2: win streak, they went from a five hundred record to
Speaker 2: now a top three team in the AFC. Whereas the Browns,
Speaker 2: they're rolling into this game with a five and seven
Speaker 2: record and would love nothing more than to just unseat
Speaker 2: their rivals. So I expect this game overall to be
Speaker 2: high scoring, as my projections actually have this being twenty
Speaker 2: seven to twenty four Bengals victory.
Speaker 1: Okay, So really you have this as a three point game, Okay,
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm closer to the number that we have here.
Speaker 1: I have it at five. But it's there's just so
Speaker 1: much unknown with Deshaun Watson acclimating to the offense, and
Speaker 1: there's no way he is as bad as he was
Speaker 1: last week that was like easy, sort of like, Okay,
Speaker 1: he's going to have some rust type of situation. I
Speaker 1: would expect him to be significantly better here. So I
Speaker 1: know that there's a lot of volatility, a lot of
Speaker 1: uncertainty built into the projection that I have here. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think if if I were betting this
Speaker 1: for Cleveland, I might just take the money line, you know,
Speaker 1: because it's if we see, like the really good version
Speaker 1: of Deshaun Watson Cleveland, Cleveland could win, you know, like
Speaker 1: that's well within the range of outcomes here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of the day, who would
Speaker 2: you rather have well known Brissette or a rusty DeShawn
Speaker 2: I mean that's how I feel. Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 2: like the money line look too. But for me, whoever
Speaker 2: wins this game, I really I really see it.
Speaker 3: But just waning by three?
Speaker 1: All right? So one game here, final game here for
Speaker 1: us to talk about. And we are on opposite sides
Speaker 1: of this game, and I gotta say, you're probably right,
Speaker 1: like I will just I will. I will own my
Speaker 1: l Here Seahawks three and a half is the current
Speaker 1: number in the market they are hosting the Panthers. I
Speaker 1: feel embarrassed to say this. I bet this in the
Speaker 1: look ahead market at six and a half because I
Speaker 1: thought there was a much better chance that this number
Speaker 1: would get to seven then would get to three. And
Speaker 1: evidently I was. I was very wrong. I mean very
Speaker 1: wrong there by the way I logged it in the
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Speaker 1: whor Okay, so you know, I was the more on
Speaker 1: who bet Seahawks at minus six and a half and
Speaker 1: it has massively moved against me and is now three
Speaker 1: and a half in the market. But I you know,
Speaker 1: I like Seattle. Here this is just I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be the donkey. But Gino Smith nine to six
Speaker 1: against the spread at home with the Seahawks, you know,
Speaker 1: and Pete Carroll fifty seven to forty one and three
Speaker 1: against the spread at home with the Seahawks. I'll just say, like,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I feel like this market like when
Speaker 1: the market speaks, I've learned that I need to pay
Speaker 1: attention to it. But I'm literally betting that the market
Speaker 1: is wrong in this spot Seahawks at home have if
Speaker 1: not the best home field advantage in the league. I'd
Speaker 1: say top three pretty cleanly, maybe top five if you
Speaker 1: want to be conservative with it. The Panthers are coming
Speaker 1: off of the buy, which helps to kind of counterbalance
Speaker 1: the fact that they're on the road. But I'm skeptical
Speaker 1: that the buy actually means all that much against the
Speaker 1: spread to a non playoff contender this late in the season,
Speaker 1: and when you factor in home field advantage for the
Speaker 1: Seahawks rest advantage for the Panthers, this line is saying
Speaker 1: that the Seahawks are about one to two points better
Speaker 1: than the Panthers, and I just think that's wrong. Like,
Speaker 1: without adjusting for short term injuries, I have the Seahawks
Speaker 1: power rated is five points better than the Panthers. And
Speaker 1: maybe I'm being optimistically aggressive with the Seahawks pessimistically dismissive
Speaker 1: of the Panthers, who are on their third quarterback. And
Speaker 1: that third quarterback is Sam Donald. And this is like
Speaker 1: a great sort of like crossroads meeting of like Sam
Speaker 1: Darnald and and Geno Smith as like two guys discarded
Speaker 1: by the Jets, and like one of them is actually
Speaker 1: like kind of like become the guy that the Jets
Speaker 1: would have hoped he could be, and one of them
Speaker 1: totally hasn't. And you know, Donald as the guy who's
Speaker 1: who's coming into this just his second start on the season, Like,
Speaker 1: I think he's still going to be getting used to
Speaker 1: that offense. But you know, the massive Peabody power rankings
Speaker 1: they have, the Seahawks is four point five six points
Speaker 1: better than the Panthers. So I feel like my line
Speaker 1: of five isn't all that out of step with another
Speaker 1: set of power rankings I really have respect for. So
Speaker 1: I just I don't believe that I'm out of line
Speaker 1: with reality. I think the market is out of line.
Speaker 1: But you're you're in line with the line that we
Speaker 1: see here. You like the Panthers at plus four plus
Speaker 1: three and a half? What do you see in the Panthers?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'll just start off by saying, you
Speaker 3: make a good argument. I'll give you that.
Speaker 2: And you know, if this was Seattle minus three or less,
Speaker 2: I could totally buy into the Hawks. But at minus
Speaker 2: three and a half and higher, I'd have to lean
Speaker 2: opposite of them in this game.
Speaker 3: I mean, who really wants to bet on the Panthers? Really?
Speaker 2: I mean, they looked horrible all season long, but like
Speaker 2: you said, the market is speaking volumes in my opinion,
Speaker 2: and you know this is why I am again leaning
Speaker 2: Carolina at plus four. Like you had mentioned, they are
Speaker 2: coming off a bye, so they've had two weeks to
Speaker 2: prepare and this season, NFL teams following the bye week
Speaker 2: are actually fifteen and nine straight up, So it's not
Speaker 2: a long shot that the Panthers could win this game outright.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll take the points, and travel is not
Speaker 2: an issue in this game. Again, well rested from their bye,
Speaker 2: and they are going up against one of the top
Speaker 2: defenses in the league. I mean, sorry, they went up
Speaker 2: against one of the top defenses in the league, the
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos, and Sam Darnold was actually pretty efficient. He
Speaker 2: didn't turn the ball over and he they ran the
Speaker 2: ball a ton, and Panthers are a better team offensively
Speaker 2: when they run the ball a lot, and I expect
Speaker 2: them to do the same to keep the ball out
Speaker 2: of Gino Smith's hands. So that's why I'm going to
Speaker 2: take the points on this one and I'll take Carolina.
Speaker 1: The one thing, and your point to the running game
Speaker 1: for the Panthers is well taken and Dante Foreman has
Speaker 1: been really good. I think as the you know, kind
Speaker 1: of mid season replacement for Christian McCaffrey after the trade,
Speaker 1: the injury report situation with him, Like, I think he's
Speaker 1: probably gonna play. He didn't practice yesterday, he did practice
Speaker 1: today on a limited basis, so he's probably going to play,
Speaker 1: but he is dealing with a foot injury, and so
Speaker 1: if he if he's not quite his full self, like
Speaker 1: I start to have a little less faith in the
Speaker 1: offense for the Panthers. But do you have any thoughts
Speaker 1: on on his injury situation?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think you pretty much highlighted everything
Speaker 2: that you know, Uh, it's unfortunate that he was limited
Speaker 2: with practice, but I still at the end of the day,
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So yeah, yeah, he probably does. All right, So
Speaker 1: we're we're on opposite sides there. I mean, I feel
Speaker 1: like you're you're you're on the sharper side here. I
Speaker 1: just have to imagine given how strongly the market moved
Speaker 1: against the Seahawks here, and you know, I actually kind
Speaker 1: of want to ask like a bigger picture question here
Speaker 1: the Seahawks because I think something kind of goes into
Speaker 1: this line of maybe the book makers, the odds makers
Speaker 1: think that a certain perspective exists of the Seahawks, and
Speaker 1: then the market moves against them. But how are you
Speaker 1: viewing the Seahawks here? You know, because now that we've
Speaker 1: had the brock pretty injury in San Francisco, the Seahawks
Speaker 1: have chance of winning this division if they can string
Speaker 1: together some wins here like they are, they're within striking distance.
Speaker 1: But it seems as if the market really doesn't think
Speaker 1: that the Seahawks are really even an average team. What
Speaker 1: what is your overall assessment of the Seahawks?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I was even just looking at just
Speaker 2: maybe my top five NFC teams that I like, and
Speaker 2: you know, I Seahawks are kind of they're they're up there,
Speaker 2: They're getting up there. I mean, you know, looks good,
Speaker 2: just like you've been talking about. I mean, that's every
Speaker 2: you know, we're all seeing it, how well he's playing
Speaker 2: this season. But I just don't know how legitimate they
Speaker 2: get deep in the playoffs. And even with San Francisco's situation,
Speaker 2: I kind of still like him. You know, Shanahan doesn't
Speaker 2: care about his quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: We know this.
Speaker 2: His system is based on running the ball yards after
Speaker 2: the catch and defense. Uh, pretty should be able to
Speaker 2: manage this offense. So as much as that might be
Speaker 2: a big issue with the Niners, I'm I'm kind of
Speaker 2: leaning more towards liking the Niners still more than liking
Speaker 2: the Seahawks at at this.
Speaker 3: Time right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as good as Gino Smith has been
Speaker 2: playing and showing him you know, and you know, of
Speaker 2: showing just how well he's playing actually the season and
Speaker 2: he's you know, at the end of the day, I'm
Speaker 2: still with the Niners.
Speaker 3: Yeah, wins championships.
Speaker 1: I certainly still have the Niners ahead of the Seahawks
Speaker 1: in my my power ratings, you know, still still the
Speaker 1: better team. Okay, So Jessica, thanks for joining us. Tell
Speaker 1: the people where to follow you on social and where
Speaker 1: to find the work that you're doing and any pieces
Speaker 1: any content that you have coming out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, I mean you can find me.
Speaker 2: The biggest way to find me is on Twitter, so
Speaker 2: grid Aaron and Wine and there that's where you'll be
Speaker 2: able to see where I post things. For Action Network
Speaker 2: is the majority of where all my work will be
Speaker 2: found as well, but I post a lot of plays
Speaker 2: on there. You can always message me through there and
Speaker 2: as well as catch any articles or anything like that
Speaker 2: I'll writing.
Speaker 1: All right, the grid Iron and wine do you also?
Speaker 1: Do you do like wine content? Are you a connoisseur
Speaker 1: of vino?
Speaker 2: I'm a connoisseur of all forms of alcohol, but.
Speaker 3: Yes, you know is one of my favorite. But yes,
Speaker 3: I mean I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't have like a whole any type of show
Speaker 2: or anything like that specifically on wine. But I always
Speaker 2: talk about wine, and I've spent some time in Napa,
Speaker 2: and I'm always down to drink some wine.
Speaker 1: Okay, good to know. It's a good handle. It's a
Speaker 1: great Twitter handle.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's better. It's better than Matt F. The Oracle
Speaker 1: Man if I could go back in time anyway. All right, Jessica,
Speaker 1: thanks for joining the show. She is Jessica Gridiron. I'm
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman at Matt F the Orcle. Check out Betting
Speaker 1: Pros and Fantasy Pros for all of my work best bets,
Speaker 1: player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings, and more.
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate interview on your
Speaker 1: favorite podcast app that is going to do it for
Speaker 1: the Week fourteen Best Bets edition of the Betting Pros Pod.
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, good Luck and See you Now,
Speaker 1: Episode h