WEBVTT - Week 14 NFL Best Bets with Jessica Gridiron | Free Picks, Predictions & MORE! (Ep. 259) 0:00:00.480 --> 0:00:03.600 Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman matt fd Oracle. Welcome to 0:00:03.600 --> 0:00:06.040 the Betting FROs Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM, 0:00:06.080 --> 0:00:07.840 where you can get a risk free bet about two 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:10.119 thousand dollars when you use the highly original promo code 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:12.920 betting Pros with your first deposit. Right here with me 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.239 to talk NFL Week fourteen best Bets is Jessica grid 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:19.599 Iron of The Action Network. Jessica, we're we're like in 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:21.680 the home stretch of the season. Next week we have 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:24.080 three games on Saturday, and when we start to get 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:27.480 Saturday games, that's officially when my brain sees the end 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.040 of the season insight, Like, how has the season gone 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:30.720 for you so far? 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:34.199 The I know it's it's exciting and said at the 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:36.559 same time, I agree with you, but so far the 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:38.080 season has gone pretty well. 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:40.720 I've had definitely had some. 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:42.839 Good weeks and then I've had some soso you know 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:47.080 weeks as well, But overall, I'm happy with the season 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:49.919 so far, and it's been fun and exciting overall. 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.320 Yeah, last week one of the best NFL weeks I've 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:56.280 ever had. So I'm just waiting, like I know, regression 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.520 is going to strike, like the Empire. Just I know, 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.560 some some point I'm gonna have a really bad week, 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:05.520 just hoping it's not this week. But all right, this 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:08.440 morning I published on Betting Pros my projected spreads for 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.920 every games and per usual established betting positions earlier in 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.000 the week. Still some games that I like, though, and 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:16.679 Jessica has some bets that she likes as well, so 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:19.560 we're going to we're gonna cover those. I'm gonna start 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.720 with the Bills hosting the Jets minus nine and a 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:24.920 half point favorites. And by the way, God do the 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.720 plug here, we're giving away a free signed Isaiah McKenzie 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:30.400 Buffalo Bills many helmets from Pristine Auction. If you want 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:32.080 a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting Pros 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:34.800 YouTube channel right now and comment below on the video. 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:36.760 We will announce a winner in a future episode, So 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:42.480 turn on those notifications, all right. I think my rationale 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.440 for this bet of Bills nine minus nine and a half, 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:48.680 it's it's pretty straightforward. You know. I think they're just 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:52.480 significantly better. That's that's the thesis there. But you know, 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:54.800 I think anything less than ten is not enough. When 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.240 the Jets hosted the Bills in Week nine, the Bills 0:01:57.280 --> 0:01:59.800 were minus ten and a half, and yeah, they did 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.840 use that game, and the Jets are better with Mike 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.760 White a quarterback versus Zach Wilson. But the Bills are 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.000 now at home at high Mark Stadium. I think they 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.079 have a significant home field advantage, and they're only nine 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:13.320 and a half point favorites, and that doesn't add up, 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.640 especially when you take into account that the Bills are 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.200 playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.640 are on a three to four away streak, so you 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.680 know they they are living on the road at this point. 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:26.520 And the difference between these two teams, like it is, 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:30.200 it is significant. In the massive Peabody Power rankings, the 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:32.840 Bills are seven point nine to one points better than 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:36.120 an average team on a neutral field, the Jets minus 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:38.560 two point h nine points. So there's, you know, like 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:41.280 I would just say, in general, like a nine or 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:45.120 ten point difference between these two teams. And then you 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.240 add on home field advantage and the extra rest that 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:51.360 the Bills have, and I think that pushes this pretty 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:54.360 cleanly over nine and a half for me. And I 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.440 know that we've seen back to back three hundred yard 0:02:56.480 --> 0:03:00.239 passing games out of Mike White. He's un quitem b 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.680 lean upgrade on Zach Wilson, but I think it's too 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:05.040 early for us to assume that he's actually like a 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:09.919 quote unquote good quarterback, like he probably isn't. Just last 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.760 year in Week nine, he had an abysmal game against 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.560 the Bills. Had a fifty four point six percent completion rate, 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:18.120 one point six of justice yards per attempt. Like that 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:22.959 is like sub Blake Bortles, like Bortals, that's like Nathan 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:26.560 Peterman esque for interceptions he threw in that game. He's 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:29.880 almost certainly better than the typical third string quarterback, but 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.680 like that's what he is. He's a third string quarterback, 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:35.040 like he's yet to prove himself to be a starter 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:38.120 caliber player. So I think anything less than ten offers 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.080 value on the Bills. I don't know if you have 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.000 any opinion on this game? Do you do? You have 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:43.440 a position or any thoughts? 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:46.120 Yeah, well, as you know, as you can tell, I'm 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.320 a Dolphins fan, you know if you look kind me 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.880 so overall, I dis like both of these teams a ton, 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:55.160 I'll just put that out there, but I always tend 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.440 to lean towards the dogs, and I agree with you. 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:00.440 You know, the Bills are one of the top three 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.840 teams in the league, but I can't take favorites in 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:06.880 the divisional game. I also, you know the Deat's defense, 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.520 it's significantly improved this year, and I think they can 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.640 get a couple stops on defense and an offense. As 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.080 you mentioned, Mike White is almost one of the games 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:18.480 outright last week. You know, he won the game outright 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.400 last week against the Vikings. So if he can limit 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:25.760 his turnovers and improve his third down conversion rate, he 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:27.760 could be a serviceable quarterback. 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.119 In my opinion, they almost won the game. 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:36.960 Yeah, so you're skeptical of my position here. Yep, Yeah, 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:40.200 that's fair. It feels dirty, like I hate. It's so 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:43.159 weird because like it feels dirty, like the want to 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:46.440 be sharp in my brain feels dirty taking a big favorite, 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:50.200 and then the like definite square in my brain feels 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.520 dirty when I take a big underdog. So there's always 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:56.800 this battle that I have within myself about what to 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:58.960 do when I'm betting here. But yeah, I mean, I 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:01.599 have this projected at let me see where do I 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:03.919 have this projected? I have this projected at eleven point 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:05.880 twenty five, So I am well on the other side 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.200 of ten here, but maybe I'm wrong. You mentioned that 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.760 you are a Dolphins fan, but you are going against 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.320 your Dolphins this week. You like the Chargers hosting the Dolphins, 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:17.840 and right now this number is, you know, kind of 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.040 vacillating between three three and a half in the market. 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:24.159 What do you see in this game that is putting 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:25.480 you on the Chargers. 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.080 Yeah, so I like the Chargers plus three and a 0:05:29.120 --> 0:05:32.200 half because everyone is going to expect a major bounce 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:35.159 back from the Dolphins this week, but I'm expecting a 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:38.000 two week road hiatus to affect the Dolphins' ability to 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:41.359 get into a routine. That being said, you're going to 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:43.400 give me a three and a half line where I'll 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.760 gladly take the home dogs to stay within a field goal. 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.719 And you know, everyone knows about Miami's offense, so nothing 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:50.840 needs to be said about that. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.240 But it's their defense. It's middle of the. 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.760 Road, and Justin Herbert should be able to pick apart 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:59.960 the middle of the field. Similarly how rookie nine Ers 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:04.120 quarterback Brock Purty did last week. You have a quarterback 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.599 in Herbert who has more experience and of course a 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:10.680 bigger arm. To make the Dolphins defense pay. One big 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.800 factor that has overlooked on this Miami team is a 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.320 special teams unit, where they are the worst in the NFL. 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:16.679 You have. 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:19.760 The eighth worst kickoff. 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:22.919 Return success tenth worst punt return success in the NFL, 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:25.360 and then you add in the fact that kicker Jason 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:27.920 Sanders comes in as the seventh worst in the league 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:31.560 as field goals and extra points. I mean, I think 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.680 the Dolphins will be leaving points on the board and 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.400 they'll lose the field position battle all game, which will 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:41.600 keep the Chargers closer than people expect. Also, the Dolphins 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.000 have the sixth worth net average in the league per 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:47.400 punt at thirty nine point eight. So I really wouldn't 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:49.799 rely much on this on special teams in a normal 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.479 scenario while handicapping, but with the Dolphins team that will 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:56.120 be out of their normal routine, I'm expecting this to 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:56.799 come into play. 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:01.359 Yeah, it's interesting, Okay, So I will say if I 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:03.240 had to bet on this game, I would be on 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:07.800 the Chargers, and my numbers do show value on the Chargers. 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:10.320 One thing that gives me a little bit of pause, 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:15.240 So I guess two things. One is that Miami they 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:18.440 are cross country, you know, traveling east to west, but 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:21.080 they did stay out on the West coast because they 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.480 played the forty nine Ers, and so I think the 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:27.240 normal road disadvantage that we would expect to see from 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:30.480 a traveling team maybe we don't see that quite as 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.680 much with the Dolphins. But the bigger thing is the 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:37.880 injury situation for the Chargers with right tackle Trey Pipkins, 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:42.200 center Corey Lensley, and wide receiver Mike Williams. If I 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.280 knew those three guys were going to play well, of course, 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:47.520 if the market knew those three guys were playing this 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.400 number one, it'd be three and a half, right, But like, 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:54.120 those are really important positions for the team, you know, 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:58.240 like Mike Williams as the bigger body, downfilled option in 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:02.400 that offense. Lind's as you know, the anchor within that 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.000 offensive line. I think he's one of the better centers 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.320 in the league and really important to what they're doing 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.720 on offense. And then right tackle Trey Pipkins, who it's 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:13.240 not so much that he's great, but he's way better 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:16.040 than Storm Norton, and so it's just you kind of 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:19.040 put it all together, and if those three guys are there. 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:22.000 I really do like the Chargers, and I would be 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:25.000 interested in them on the money line, Like because my 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:27.440 number is showing value, this number is three, I haven't 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:31.160 projected at one point twenty five. Uh, And that's like 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:35.079 kind of assuming that those three guys are likelier than 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:39.080 not to be out. But I just gotta say, I 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:43.440 sort of know there's like snowballing catastrophe potential if those 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.080 three guys are out. So I'm with you in that, 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.520 Like this is the side I would bet, but I 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:50.200 just I haven't been able to do it yet. I 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:51.960 just kind of want to see a little more on 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.480 the injury reports. It's some sort of sense about whether 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:57.840 those guys might be in or out. Do you have 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:00.000 any thoughts on the injury situation for the charge? 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:02.800 Yeah, I mean I was also just gonna mention too, 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.199 like I agree with you, you know, with the Dolphins stay 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:08.679 in California, but we are fond of of routines and 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.080 they won't have their usual routine and I just don't 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:15.160 think iowa sorry, I do think that Herbert will be 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:15.719 running for. 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:18.360 His life, but I still feel like he's going to 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:19.480 find some open looks. 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:24.520 I have a minus one point seven for the Finns also, 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:27.360 so according to my projections. 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.679 Yeah, so we're pretty close. We're pretty close there. 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:34.120 Yeah, and I and I also think having offensive line 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:37.200 worries for the Chargers is legitimate. But we'll have to 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.480 make plays like we like we've seen him do. 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:44.720 Yeah. All right, So a game that you and I 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.320 are both on and this this one is really disgusting 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:52.360 and is like testing my my fortitude and willingness to 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.400 bet on games and also just to watch an NFL game. 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:59.840 But the Broncos hosting the Chiefs. This number is nine 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:01.199 in and a half And by the way, you know 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:02.719 nine and a half across the market, but nine and 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:04.720 a half at bet MGM. Weare reminder you can use 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:07.040 the risk free bet of a thousand dollars when you 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.200 use a highly original probo co betting pros with your 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.760 first deposit. Okay, uh, the the Broncos at nine and 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:18.520 a half. This this really is an interesting situation because 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:22.560 you know, Russell Wilson has been horrible, you know, I mean, 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:29.400 I can't I can't describe the the difference, like the 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.640 delta between what we would have expected when the year 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:35.679 started and all the enthusiasm and if you look at 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:39.920 any of the the look ahead markets for the off 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:44.120 season and where these lines were projected months in advance. 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:47.760 I mean they are, they are so off it's just incredible. 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:50.560 But you know, I have to I still look at 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.280 this game and I think, like, where is the on 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:56.120 field edge for the Chiefs? Like betting on the Broncos 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:58.679 is disgusting, there's no denying it, But like, I'm backing 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:02.960 a big divisional doll at home where the elevation provides 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:05.720 a true edge for the Broncos. And I like that 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:09.679 general scenario. And you know, as cringey as Russell Wilson 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.800 has been this season on and off the field with 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.719 those ridiculous commercials, he's still four and two against the 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:18.560 spread as an underdog, historically very good against the spread 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:22.120 for his career as an underdog. And the Chiefs, I 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:24.600 just don't see them having an on field edge, Like really, 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.600 obviously they're the better team. But I'm probably higher on 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.120 the Chiefs than most people are, and I still have 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:31.960 them as the number one team in my power ratings. 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:34.480 I tend to be too high on them each week, 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:36.800 but I still see value on the Broncos here, And 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.360 like that's saying something so on offense the Chiefs, right, 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.600 great team number one and drop back EPA number two 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:46.320 and drop back success rate number two and past dvoa. 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:48.720 The thing is they're going against one of the best 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:52.000 secondaries in the league, right, the Broncos number three in 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.880 drop back EPA, number one in drop back success rate. 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.680 Like this is not like an easy passing matchup for 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.320 the offense for the Chiefs, and the Chiefs aren't really 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:06.280 all that good running the ball. The Broncos about average 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.240 and run defense actually number eleven in rush success rate, 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.199 you know, so like it's not as if the offense 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.800 for the Chiefs, which drives the team, has a really 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.800 great matchup in front of them. And then the Broncos defense, Yeah, 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.200 it's not likely to shut down the Chiefs offense, but 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:27.040 like slow down Patrick Mahomes, and you know, with a 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:29.040 spread of nine and a half in a total of 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:32.760 just forty four points, slowing down Mahomes might be enough 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:37.320 to get the cover and the Broncos offense obviously massive 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:41.720 disadvantage relative to the offense of the Chiefs, but not 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:46.439 a massive disadvantage relative to the Chiefs defense. Drop back 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:50.520 EPA of twenty four for the offense for the Broncos 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:54.640 twenty five for the Chiefs defense. Like, these two teams 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:57.199 are kind of even in terms of like the offensive 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:01.560 versus defensive matchups that we see. So I think the 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.040 Broncos they're gonna be challenging the running game, but they're 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:06.880 not good there. But what does that matter? Like the 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:09.320 running game doesn't matter when you're a double digit dog, 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:12.040 you're going to be throwing the ball anyway. And the 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.720 Chiefs have a blow average pass defense. So I doubt 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.360 that the Broncos win. But the Chiefs throughout the years 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:22.040 have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.480 the large spreads, and I think we see that happen here. 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.320 So I think anything more than seven is too much 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:31.360 for the Broncos at home. And I'll just close out 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:36.720 this dietribe here. Russell wilson career stats might not matter 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.880 because like there's there's a case to be made, real 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.280 case to be made. He is no longer Russell Wilson, 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:44.400 but Russell Wilson five to zero against the spread as 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:47.480 an underdog of more than seven points for his career. 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.199 Patrick Mahomes eleven sixteen and one against the spread as 0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.480 a favorite of more than seven points. So it's it's 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.200 one of those like, I'm not gonna be watching this 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:59.000 game at all. I'm not gonna be looking at it 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.920 on my phone tracking it because looking at it will 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:05.160 probably give me a heart attack. But I'm going to 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:07.440 be betting it and then just at the end of Sunday, 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.400 I'm going to be looking to see what happened here. 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.240 Do you have opinions? We're on the same side of this. 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.760 We're i mean, tell me why it is that you 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:18.960 are sick oh enough to be betting on this game. 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.040 Now, I agree with you. 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:22.920 Probably the only time I'll be watching this game is 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:24.880 if it pops up on the you know, red zone. 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:29.600 But here we are with the divisional dog again, divisional 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.160 dog again. But I'll keep this short and sweet because 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.080 you really went into a lot of detail already, you know, 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:37.160 But like you said, it's a divisional game. 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:38.880 It's strength versus strength. 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:42.880 Here you highlighted extremely you know how well the Chiefs 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:45.320 offense is and how it's arguably one of the best 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:48.280 in the league's right now, but they are going against 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.440 one of the best defenses in the league. And just 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.160 like we were talking about, it's a divisional matchup. So 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:56.600 I expect this game to be stay within a touchdown 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.120 considering just how well these two teams know each other, 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:01.720 and that really might just be the biggest factor at 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:02.480 the end of the day. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.200 And like you said, you know, maybe there's a day Russ. 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:06.760 Maybe Russ took some cooking. 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:08.720 Classes and he's ready to cook this, you know, this 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:10.480 weekend and we'll see. 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:12.360 I mean, Broncos, let's ride baby. 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:16.280 No, that guy is eating raw food. He's not cooking anything. 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.360 I've just projected at Broncos plus seven point twenty five. 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:22.000 Where do you have it? 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:26.040 Ooh, you know, I have it actually at eight, so 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:27.040 we're kind of right there. 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.040 Okay, yeah, all right. So a game that you are, 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:33.840 another divisional game that you're looking at here, divisional dog 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:39.000 that you like the Browns And this opened at four 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.360 and a half I think in the look ahead market 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:43.600 last week it was three and a half. Opened on 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.160 Sunday night at four and a half, was bet up 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:50.000 all the way to six and then now has moved 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.320 back to five and a half. So there has been 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.960 some money coming in on the Browns recently, the Browns 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.960 on the road at the Bengals. You like the Browns here, 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.920 divisional dog five and a half. Talk to me about 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:02.880 what you like with this team? 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:07.080 Yeah, you know, sell the Bengals by the Browns. Reason 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.120 behind that is this is game number two of Deshaun 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.520 Watson in the offense, and I expect significant improvement from 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.680 last week's game. This is, like you mentioned, it's a 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:22.640 divisional matchup with two heated rivals, and with Deshaun Watson suspended, 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.680 this Brown's offense has still managed to be top ten 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:30.680 in DBOA and EPA. Actually, and we know by now 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.680 that they love to run the ball. It's one of 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:35.840 the highest it's one of the highest rates in the 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:38.960 league right now. And do you know what the Bengals 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:43.440 defense is bad at stopping the run? They are actually 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:47.840 ranked twenty six and defensive rush EPA. And while Deshaun 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:50.640 is still getting acclimated to this offense, I expect the 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.840 Browns to employ a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:57.720 Kareem Hunt and then look at them defensively. You have 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:01.080 the Browns numbers are not that great this season, and 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.440 I expect these numbers to change over time as the 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:04.880 offense continues to improve. 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:08.719 Give them more rest in between drives. 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.439 So like I mentioned I'm selling on the Bengals at 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.920 what I consider to be the high point season for them, 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:17.880 and because they are coming off of a four game 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:21.280 win streak, they went from a five hundred record to 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:25.080 now a top three team in the AFC. Whereas the Browns, 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.520 they're rolling into this game with a five and seven 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.159 record and would love nothing more than to just unseat 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.600 their rivals. So I expect this game overall to be 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:37.320 high scoring, as my projections actually have this being twenty 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.320 seven to twenty four Bengals victory. 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:45.800 Okay, So really you have this as a three point game, Okay, 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:48.960 So I'm I'm closer to the number that we have here. 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:53.399 I have it at five. But it's there's just so 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:58.439 much unknown with Deshaun Watson acclimating to the offense, and 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:01.119 there's no way he is as bad as he was 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.200 last week that was like easy, sort of like, Okay, 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:07.119 he's going to have some rust type of situation. I 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.440 would expect him to be significantly better here. So I 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.720 know that there's a lot of volatility, a lot of 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:17.200 uncertainty built into the projection that I have here. So yeah, 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:20.000 I mean, I think if if I were betting this 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.080 for Cleveland, I might just take the money line, you know, 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:26.919 because it's if we see, like the really good version 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:31.199 of Deshaun Watson Cleveland, Cleveland could win, you know, like 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.280 that's well within the range of outcomes here. 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:34.560 Yeah, definitely. 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:35.920 I mean, at the end of the day, who would 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.479 you rather have well known Brissette or a rusty DeShawn 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:44.040 I mean that's how I feel. Yeah, I mean I 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.959 like the money line look too. But for me, whoever 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:49.119 wins this game, I really I really see it. 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:50.120 But just waning by three? 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:53.639 All right? So one game here, final game here for 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:55.840 us to talk about. And we are on opposite sides 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:57.800 of this game, and I gotta say, you're probably right, 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:00.560 like I will just I will. I will own my 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:04.680 l Here Seahawks three and a half is the current 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:07.960 number in the market they are hosting the Panthers. I 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.040 feel embarrassed to say this. I bet this in the 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:13.080 look ahead market at six and a half because I 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.359 thought there was a much better chance that this number 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:17.760 would get to seven then would get to three. And 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:21.480 evidently I was. I was very wrong. I mean very 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:23.280 wrong there by the way I logged it in the 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.359 betting pros app here here comes the plug, the Betting 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:27.159 pros app where you can sync up with sports books, 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:29.920 get free betting advice and picks, and track different experts 0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:32.439 in your own bets. And you can set alerts so 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:34.800 we monitor all the major sports books. When one of 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.240 them moves a line that hits a threshold you've set, 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:39.320 you get an alert that tells you where to make 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:41.959 the bet, at the book that offers the most value. 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:44.560 Download the app today in the Apple or Google Play, 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:47.000 whor Okay, so you know, I was the more on 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:49.959 who bet Seahawks at minus six and a half and 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.640 it has massively moved against me and is now three 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.560 and a half in the market. But I you know, 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.760 I like Seattle. Here this is just I mean, I'm 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:01.840