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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman matt fd Oracle. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Betting FROs Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet about two

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars when you use the highly original promo code

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Speaker 1: betting Pros with your first deposit. Right here with me

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Speaker 1: to talk NFL Week fourteen best Bets is Jessica grid

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Speaker 1: Iron of The Action Network. Jessica, we're we're like in

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Speaker 1: the home stretch of the season. Next week we have

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Speaker 1: three games on Saturday, and when we start to get

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Speaker 1: Saturday games, that's officially when my brain sees the end

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Speaker 1: of the season insight, Like, how has the season gone

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Speaker 1: for you so far?

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Speaker 2: The I know it's it's exciting and said at the

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Speaker 2: same time, I agree with you, but so far the

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Speaker 2: season has gone pretty well.

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Speaker 3: I've had definitely had some.

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Speaker 2: Good weeks and then I've had some soso you know

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Speaker 2: weeks as well, But overall, I'm happy with the season

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Speaker 2: so far, and it's been fun and exciting overall.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, last week one of the best NFL weeks I've

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Speaker 1: ever had. So I'm just waiting, like I know, regression

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Speaker 1: is going to strike, like the Empire. Just I know,

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Speaker 1: some some point I'm gonna have a really bad week,

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Speaker 1: just hoping it's not this week. But all right, this

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Speaker 1: morning I published on Betting Pros my projected spreads for

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Speaker 1: every games and per usual established betting positions earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week. Still some games that I like, though, and

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Speaker 1: Jessica has some bets that she likes as well, so

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Speaker 1: we're going to we're gonna cover those. I'm gonna start

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Speaker 1: with the Bills hosting the Jets minus nine and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites. And by the way, God do the

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Speaker 1: plug here, we're giving away a free signed Isaiah McKenzie

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills many helmets from Pristine Auction. If you want

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Speaker 1: a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now and comment below on the video.

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Speaker 1: We will announce a winner in a future episode, So

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Speaker 1: turn on those notifications, all right. I think my rationale

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Speaker 1: for this bet of Bills nine minus nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: it's it's pretty straightforward. You know. I think they're just

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Speaker 1: significantly better. That's that's the thesis there. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I think anything less than ten is not enough. When

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Speaker 1: the Jets hosted the Bills in Week nine, the Bills

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Speaker 1: were minus ten and a half, and yeah, they did

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Speaker 1: use that game, and the Jets are better with Mike

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Speaker 1: White a quarterback versus Zach Wilson. But the Bills are

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Speaker 1: now at home at high Mark Stadium. I think they

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Speaker 1: have a significant home field advantage, and they're only nine

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, and that doesn't add up,

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Speaker 1: especially when you take into account that the Bills are

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Speaker 1: playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets

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Speaker 1: are on a three to four away streak, so you

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Speaker 1: know they they are living on the road at this point.

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Speaker 1: And the difference between these two teams, like it is,

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Speaker 1: it is significant. In the massive Peabody Power rankings, the

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Speaker 1: Bills are seven point nine to one points better than

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Speaker 1: an average team on a neutral field, the Jets minus

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Speaker 1: two point h nine points. So there's, you know, like

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Speaker 1: I would just say, in general, like a nine or

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Speaker 1: ten point difference between these two teams. And then you

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Speaker 1: add on home field advantage and the extra rest that

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Speaker 1: the Bills have, and I think that pushes this pretty

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Speaker 1: cleanly over nine and a half for me. And I

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Speaker 1: know that we've seen back to back three hundred yard

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Speaker 1: passing games out of Mike White. He's un quitem b

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Speaker 1: lean upgrade on Zach Wilson, but I think it's too

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Speaker 1: early for us to assume that he's actually like a

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Speaker 1: quote unquote good quarterback, like he probably isn't. Just last

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Speaker 1: year in Week nine, he had an abysmal game against

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Speaker 1: the Bills. Had a fifty four point six percent completion rate,

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Speaker 1: one point six of justice yards per attempt. Like that

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Speaker 1: is like sub Blake Bortles, like Bortals, that's like Nathan

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Speaker 1: Peterman esque for interceptions he threw in that game. He's

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Speaker 1: almost certainly better than the typical third string quarterback, but

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Speaker 1: like that's what he is. He's a third string quarterback,

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Speaker 1: like he's yet to prove himself to be a starter

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Speaker 1: caliber player. So I think anything less than ten offers

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Speaker 1: value on the Bills. I don't know if you have

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Speaker 1: any opinion on this game? Do you do? You have

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Speaker 1: a position or any thoughts?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, as you know, as you can tell, I'm

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Speaker 2: a Dolphins fan, you know if you look kind me

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Speaker 2: so overall, I dis like both of these teams a ton,

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Speaker 2: I'll just put that out there, but I always tend

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Speaker 2: to lean towards the dogs, and I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Bills are one of the top three

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Speaker 2: teams in the league, but I can't take favorites in

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Speaker 2: the divisional game. I also, you know the Deat's defense,

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Speaker 2: it's significantly improved this year, and I think they can

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Speaker 2: get a couple stops on defense and an offense. As

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, Mike White is almost one of the games

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Speaker 2: outright last week. You know, he won the game outright

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Speaker 2: last week against the Vikings. So if he can limit

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Speaker 2: his turnovers and improve his third down conversion rate, he

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Speaker 2: could be a serviceable quarterback.

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Speaker 3: In my opinion, they almost won the game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're skeptical of my position here. Yep, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's fair. It feels dirty, like I hate. It's so

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Speaker 1: weird because like it feels dirty, like the want to

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Speaker 1: be sharp in my brain feels dirty taking a big favorite,

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Speaker 1: and then the like definite square in my brain feels

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Speaker 1: dirty when I take a big underdog. So there's always

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Speaker 1: this battle that I have within myself about what to

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Speaker 1: do when I'm betting here. But yeah, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: have this projected at let me see where do I

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Speaker 1: have this projected? I have this projected at eleven point

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Speaker 1: twenty five, So I am well on the other side

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Speaker 1: of ten here, but maybe I'm wrong. You mentioned that

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Speaker 1: you are a Dolphins fan, but you are going against

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Speaker 1: your Dolphins this week. You like the Chargers hosting the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: and right now this number is, you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: vacillating between three three and a half in the market.

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Speaker 1: What do you see in this game that is putting

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Speaker 1: you on the Chargers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I like the Chargers plus three and a

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Speaker 2: half because everyone is going to expect a major bounce

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Speaker 2: back from the Dolphins this week, but I'm expecting a

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Speaker 2: two week road hiatus to affect the Dolphins' ability to

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Speaker 2: get into a routine. That being said, you're going to

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Speaker 2: give me a three and a half line where I'll

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Speaker 2: gladly take the home dogs to stay within a field goal.

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Speaker 2: And you know, everyone knows about Miami's offense, so nothing

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Speaker 2: needs to be said about that.

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Speaker 3: But it's their defense. It's middle of the.

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Speaker 2: Road, and Justin Herbert should be able to pick apart

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Speaker 2: the middle of the field. Similarly how rookie nine Ers

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Speaker 2: quarterback Brock Purty did last week. You have a quarterback

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Speaker 2: in Herbert who has more experience and of course a

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Speaker 2: bigger arm. To make the Dolphins defense pay. One big

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Speaker 2: factor that has overlooked on this Miami team is a

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Speaker 2: special teams unit, where they are the worst in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: You have.

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Speaker 3: The eighth worst kickoff.

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Speaker 2: Return success tenth worst punt return success in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: and then you add in the fact that kicker Jason

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Speaker 2: Sanders comes in as the seventh worst in the league

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Speaker 2: as field goals and extra points. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins will be leaving points on the board and

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Speaker 2: they'll lose the field position battle all game, which will

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Speaker 2: keep the Chargers closer than people expect. Also, the Dolphins

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Speaker 2: have the sixth worth net average in the league per

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Speaker 2: punt at thirty nine point eight. So I really wouldn't

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Speaker 2: rely much on this on special teams in a normal

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Speaker 2: scenario while handicapping, but with the Dolphins team that will

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Speaker 2: be out of their normal routine, I'm expecting this to

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Speaker 2: come into play.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting, Okay, So I will say if I

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Speaker 1: had to bet on this game, I would be on

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, and my numbers do show value on the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: One thing that gives me a little bit of pause,

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Speaker 1: So I guess two things. One is that Miami they

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Speaker 1: are cross country, you know, traveling east to west, but

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Speaker 1: they did stay out on the West coast because they

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Speaker 1: played the forty nine Ers, and so I think the

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Speaker 1: normal road disadvantage that we would expect to see from

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Speaker 1: a traveling team maybe we don't see that quite as

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Speaker 1: much with the Dolphins. But the bigger thing is the

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Speaker 1: injury situation for the Chargers with right tackle Trey Pipkins,

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Speaker 1: center Corey Lensley, and wide receiver Mike Williams. If I

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Speaker 1: knew those three guys were going to play well, of course,

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Speaker 1: if the market knew those three guys were playing this

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Speaker 1: number one, it'd be three and a half, right, But like,

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Speaker 1: those are really important positions for the team, you know,

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Speaker 1: like Mike Williams as the bigger body, downfilled option in

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Speaker 1: that offense. Lind's as you know, the anchor within that

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Speaker 1: offensive line. I think he's one of the better centers

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Speaker 1: in the league and really important to what they're doing

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Speaker 1: on offense. And then right tackle Trey Pipkins, who it's

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Speaker 1: not so much that he's great, but he's way better

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Speaker 1: than Storm Norton, and so it's just you kind of

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Speaker 1: put it all together, and if those three guys are there.

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Speaker 1: I really do like the Chargers, and I would be

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Speaker 1: interested in them on the money line, Like because my

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Speaker 1: number is showing value, this number is three, I haven't

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Speaker 1: projected at one point twenty five. Uh, And that's like

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Speaker 1: kind of assuming that those three guys are likelier than

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Speaker 1: not to be out. But I just gotta say, I

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Speaker 1: sort of know there's like snowballing catastrophe potential if those

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Speaker 1: three guys are out. So I'm with you in that,

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Speaker 1: Like this is the side I would bet, but I

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Speaker 1: just I haven't been able to do it yet. I

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Speaker 1: just kind of want to see a little more on

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Speaker 1: the injury reports. It's some sort of sense about whether

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Speaker 1: those guys might be in or out. Do you have

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Speaker 1: any thoughts on the injury situation for the charge?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I was also just gonna mention too,

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Speaker 2: like I agree with you, you know, with the Dolphins stay

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Speaker 2: in California, but we are fond of of routines and

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Speaker 2: they won't have their usual routine and I just don't

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Speaker 2: think iowa sorry, I do think that Herbert will be

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Speaker 2: running for.

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Speaker 3: His life, but I still feel like he's going to

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Speaker 3: find some open looks.

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Speaker 2: I have a minus one point seven for the Finns also,

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Speaker 2: so according to my projections.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're pretty close. We're pretty close there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I and I also think having offensive line

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Speaker 2: worries for the Chargers is legitimate. But we'll have to

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Speaker 2: make plays like we like we've seen him do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. All right, So a game that you and I

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Speaker 1: are both on and this this one is really disgusting

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Speaker 1: and is like testing my my fortitude and willingness to

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Speaker 1: bet on games and also just to watch an NFL game.

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Speaker 1: But the Broncos hosting the Chiefs. This number is nine

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Speaker 1: in and a half And by the way, you know

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Speaker 1: nine and a half across the market, but nine and

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Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM. Weare reminder you can use

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Speaker 1: the risk free bet of a thousand dollars when you

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Speaker 1: use a highly original probo co betting pros with your

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Speaker 1: first deposit. Okay, uh, the the Broncos at nine and

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Speaker 1: a half. This this really is an interesting situation because

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Speaker 1: you know, Russell Wilson has been horrible, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I can't I can't describe the the difference, like the

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Speaker 1: delta between what we would have expected when the year

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Speaker 1: started and all the enthusiasm and if you look at

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Speaker 1: any of the the look ahead markets for the off

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Speaker 1: season and where these lines were projected months in advance.

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Speaker 1: I mean they are, they are so off it's just incredible.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I have to I still look at

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Speaker 1: this game and I think, like, where is the on

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Speaker 1: field edge for the Chiefs? Like betting on the Broncos

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Speaker 1: is disgusting, there's no denying it, But like, I'm backing

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Speaker 1: a big divisional doll at home where the elevation provides

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Speaker 1: a true edge for the Broncos. And I like that

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Speaker 1: general scenario. And you know, as cringey as Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: has been this season on and off the field with

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Speaker 1: those ridiculous commercials, he's still four and two against the

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Speaker 1: spread as an underdog, historically very good against the spread

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Speaker 1: for his career as an underdog. And the Chiefs, I

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Speaker 1: just don't see them having an on field edge, Like really,

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Speaker 1: obviously they're the better team. But I'm probably higher on

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs than most people are, and I still have

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Speaker 1: them as the number one team in my power ratings.

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Speaker 1: I tend to be too high on them each week,

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Speaker 1: but I still see value on the Broncos here, And

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Speaker 1: like that's saying something so on offense the Chiefs, right,

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Speaker 1: great team number one and drop back EPA number two

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Speaker 1: and drop back success rate number two and past dvoa.

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Speaker 1: The thing is they're going against one of the best

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Speaker 1: secondaries in the league, right, the Broncos number three in

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Speaker 1: drop back EPA, number one in drop back success rate.

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Speaker 1: Like this is not like an easy passing matchup for

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Speaker 1: the offense for the Chiefs, and the Chiefs aren't really

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Speaker 1: all that good running the ball. The Broncos about average

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Speaker 1: and run defense actually number eleven in rush success rate,

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Speaker 1: you know, so like it's not as if the offense

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Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, which drives the team, has a really

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Speaker 1: great matchup in front of them. And then the Broncos defense, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's not likely to shut down the Chiefs offense, but

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Speaker 1: like slow down Patrick Mahomes, and you know, with a

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Speaker 1: spread of nine and a half in a total of

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Speaker 1: just forty four points, slowing down Mahomes might be enough

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Speaker 1: to get the cover and the Broncos offense obviously massive

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Speaker 1: disadvantage relative to the offense of the Chiefs, but not

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Speaker 1: a massive disadvantage relative to the Chiefs defense. Drop back

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Speaker 1: EPA of twenty four for the offense for the Broncos

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Speaker 1: twenty five for the Chiefs defense. Like, these two teams

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Speaker 1: are kind of even in terms of like the offensive

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Speaker 1: versus defensive matchups that we see. So I think the

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Speaker 1: Broncos they're gonna be challenging the running game, but they're

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Speaker 1: not good there. But what does that matter? Like the

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Speaker 1: running game doesn't matter when you're a double digit dog,

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Speaker 1: you're going to be throwing the ball anyway. And the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs have a blow average pass defense. So I doubt

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Speaker 1: that the Broncos win. But the Chiefs throughout the years

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Speaker 1: have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering

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Speaker 1: the large spreads, and I think we see that happen here.

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Speaker 1: So I think anything more than seven is too much

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Speaker 1: for the Broncos at home. And I'll just close out

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Speaker 1: this dietribe here. Russell wilson career stats might not matter

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Speaker 1: because like there's there's a case to be made, real

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Speaker 1: case to be made. He is no longer Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 1: but Russell Wilson five to zero against the spread as

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Speaker 1: an underdog of more than seven points for his career.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes eleven sixteen and one against the spread as

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Speaker 1: a favorite of more than seven points. So it's it's

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Speaker 1: one of those like, I'm not gonna be watching this

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Speaker 1: game at all. I'm not gonna be looking at it

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Speaker 1: on my phone tracking it because looking at it will

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Speaker 1: probably give me a heart attack. But I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be betting it and then just at the end of Sunday,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be looking to see what happened here.

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Speaker 1: Do you have opinions? We're on the same side of this.

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Speaker 1: We're i mean, tell me why it is that you

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Speaker 1: are sick oh enough to be betting on this game.

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Speaker 3: Now, I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: Probably the only time I'll be watching this game is

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Speaker 2: if it pops up on the you know, red zone.

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Speaker 2: But here we are with the divisional dog again, divisional

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Speaker 2: dog again. But I'll keep this short and sweet because

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Speaker 2: you really went into a lot of detail already, you know,

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Speaker 2: But like you said, it's a divisional game.

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Speaker 3: It's strength versus strength.

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Speaker 2: Here you highlighted extremely you know how well the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: offense is and how it's arguably one of the best

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Speaker 2: in the league's right now, but they are going against

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Speaker 2: one of the best defenses in the league. And just

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Speaker 2: like we were talking about, it's a divisional matchup. So

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Speaker 2: I expect this game to be stay within a touchdown

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Speaker 2: considering just how well these two teams know each other,

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Speaker 2: and that really might just be the biggest factor at

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Speaker 2: the end of the day.

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Speaker 3: And like you said, you know, maybe there's a day Russ.

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Speaker 3: Maybe Russ took some cooking.

304
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Speaker 2: Classes and he's ready to cook this, you know, this

305
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Speaker 2: weekend and we'll see.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Broncos, let's ride baby.

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Speaker 1: No, that guy is eating raw food. He's not cooking anything.

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Speaker 1: I've just projected at Broncos plus seven point twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Where do you have it?

310
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Speaker 2: Ooh, you know, I have it actually at eight, so

311
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Speaker 2: we're kind of right there.

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, all right. So a game that you are,

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Speaker 1: another divisional game that you're looking at here, divisional dog

314
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Speaker 1: that you like the Browns And this opened at four

315
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,360
Speaker 1: and a half I think in the look ahead market

316
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 1: last week it was three and a half. Opened on

317
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 1: Sunday night at four and a half, was bet up

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Speaker 1: all the way to six and then now has moved

319
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 1: back to five and a half. So there has been

320
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Speaker 1: some money coming in on the Browns recently, the Browns

321
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Speaker 1: on the road at the Bengals. You like the Browns here,

322
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Speaker 1: divisional dog five and a half. Talk to me about

323
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Speaker 1: what you like with this team?

324
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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, sell the Bengals by the Browns. Reason

325
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 2: behind that is this is game number two of Deshaun

326
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Speaker 2: Watson in the offense, and I expect significant improvement from

327
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,680
Speaker 2: last week's game. This is, like you mentioned, it's a

328
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Speaker 2: divisional matchup with two heated rivals, and with Deshaun Watson suspended,

329
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:25,680
Speaker 2: this Brown's offense has still managed to be top ten

330
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Speaker 2: in DBOA and EPA. Actually, and we know by now

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Speaker 2: that they love to run the ball. It's one of

332
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Speaker 2: the highest it's one of the highest rates in the

333
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 2: league right now. And do you know what the Bengals

334
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 2: defense is bad at stopping the run? They are actually

335
00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,840
Speaker 2: ranked twenty six and defensive rush EPA. And while Deshaun

336
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 2: is still getting acclimated to this offense, I expect the

337
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 2: Browns to employ a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and

338
00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt and then look at them defensively. You have

339
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 2: the Browns numbers are not that great this season, and

340
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 2: I expect these numbers to change over time as the

341
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:04,880
Speaker 2: offense continues to improve.

342
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,719
Speaker 3: Give them more rest in between drives.

343
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Speaker 2: So like I mentioned I'm selling on the Bengals at

344
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,920
Speaker 2: what I consider to be the high point season for them,

345
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,880
Speaker 2: and because they are coming off of a four game

346
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 2: win streak, they went from a five hundred record to

347
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 2: now a top three team in the AFC. Whereas the Browns,

348
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 2: they're rolling into this game with a five and seven

349
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,159
Speaker 2: record and would love nothing more than to just unseat

350
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 2: their rivals. So I expect this game overall to be

351
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 2: high scoring, as my projections actually have this being twenty

352
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 2: seven to twenty four Bengals victory.

353
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Speaker 1: Okay, So really you have this as a three point game, Okay,

354
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm closer to the number that we have here.

355
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 1: I have it at five. But it's there's just so

356
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:58,439
Speaker 1: much unknown with Deshaun Watson acclimating to the offense, and

357
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,119
Speaker 1: there's no way he is as bad as he was

358
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,200
Speaker 1: last week that was like easy, sort of like, Okay,

359
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 1: he's going to have some rust type of situation. I

360
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,440
Speaker 1: would expect him to be significantly better here. So I

361
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 1: know that there's a lot of volatility, a lot of

362
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:17,200
Speaker 1: uncertainty built into the projection that I have here. So yeah,

363
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I think if if I were betting this

364
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 1: for Cleveland, I might just take the money line, you know,

365
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,919
Speaker 1: because it's if we see, like the really good version

366
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:31,199
Speaker 1: of Deshaun Watson Cleveland, Cleveland could win, you know, like

367
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 1: that's well within the range of outcomes here.

368
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.

369
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of the day, who would

370
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:39,479
Speaker 2: you rather have well known Brissette or a rusty DeShawn

371
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: I mean that's how I feel. Yeah, I mean I

372
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,959
Speaker 2: like the money line look too. But for me, whoever

373
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 2: wins this game, I really I really see it.

374
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:50,120
Speaker 3: But just waning by three?

375
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,639
Speaker 1: All right? So one game here, final game here for

376
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,840
Speaker 1: us to talk about. And we are on opposite sides

377
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 1: of this game, and I gotta say, you're probably right,

378
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 1: like I will just I will. I will own my

379
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,680
Speaker 1: l Here Seahawks three and a half is the current

380
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 1: number in the market they are hosting the Panthers. I

381
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 1: feel embarrassed to say this. I bet this in the

382
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 1: look ahead market at six and a half because I

383
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 1: thought there was a much better chance that this number

384
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 1: would get to seven then would get to three. And

385
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 1: evidently I was. I was very wrong. I mean very

386
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 1: wrong there by the way I logged it in the

387
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,359
Speaker 1: betting pros app here here comes the plug, the Betting

388
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,159
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389
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,920
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390
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,439
Speaker 1: in your own bets. And you can set alerts so

391
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 1: we monitor all the major sports books. When one of

392
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 1: them moves a line that hits a threshold you've set,

393
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 1: you get an alert that tells you where to make

394
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,959
Speaker 1: the bet, at the book that offers the most value.

395
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: Download the app today in the Apple or Google Play,

396
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 1: whor Okay, so you know, I was the more on

397
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,959
Speaker 1: who bet Seahawks at minus six and a half and

398
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,640
Speaker 1: it has massively moved against me and is now three

399
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 1: and a half in the market. But I you know,

400
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: I like Seattle. Here this is just I mean, I'm

401
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 1: gonna be the donkey. But Gino Smith nine to six

402
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 1: against the spread at home with the Seahawks, you know,

403
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 1: and Pete Carroll fifty seven to forty one and three

404
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,959
Speaker 1: against the spread at home with the Seahawks. I'll just say, like,

405
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 1: I don't know, I feel like this market like when

406
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 1: the market speaks, I've learned that I need to pay

407
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 1: attention to it. But I'm literally betting that the market

408
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 1: is wrong in this spot Seahawks at home have if

409
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 1: not the best home field advantage in the league. I'd

410
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 1: say top three pretty cleanly, maybe top five if you

411
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 1: want to be conservative with it. The Panthers are coming

412
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: off of the buy, which helps to kind of counterbalance

413
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 1: the fact that they're on the road. But I'm skeptical

414
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 1: that the buy actually means all that much against the

415
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 1: spread to a non playoff contender this late in the season,

416
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 1: and when you factor in home field advantage for the

417
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 1: Seahawks rest advantage for the Panthers, this line is saying

418
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 1: that the Seahawks are about one to two points better

419
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 1: than the Panthers, and I just think that's wrong. Like,

420
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 1: without adjusting for short term injuries, I have the Seahawks

421
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: power rated is five points better than the Panthers. And

422
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 1: maybe I'm being optimistically aggressive with the Seahawks pessimistically dismissive

423
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 1: of the Panthers, who are on their third quarterback. And

424
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 1: that third quarterback is Sam Donald. And this is like

425
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 1: a great sort of like crossroads meeting of like Sam

426
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: Darnald and and Geno Smith as like two guys discarded

427
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 1: by the Jets, and like one of them is actually

428
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 1: like kind of like become the guy that the Jets

429
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: would have hoped he could be, and one of them

430
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 1: totally hasn't. And you know, Donald as the guy who's

431
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 1: who's coming into this just his second start on the season, Like,

432
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: I think he's still going to be getting used to

433
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 1: that offense. But you know, the massive Peabody power rankings

434
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: they have, the Seahawks is four point five six points

435
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: better than the Panthers. So I feel like my line

436
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 1: of five isn't all that out of step with another

437
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 1: set of power rankings I really have respect for. So

438
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: I just I don't believe that I'm out of line

439
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: with reality. I think the market is out of line.

440
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,479
Speaker 1: But you're you're in line with the line that we

441
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 1: see here. You like the Panthers at plus four plus

442
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 1: three and a half? What do you see in the Panthers?

443
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'll just start off by saying, you

444
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 3: make a good argument. I'll give you that.

445
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: And you know, if this was Seattle minus three or less,

446
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 2: I could totally buy into the Hawks. But at minus

447
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 2: three and a half and higher, I'd have to lean

448
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: opposite of them in this game.

449
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 3: I mean, who really wants to bet on the Panthers? Really?

450
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: I mean, they looked horrible all season long, but like

451
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 2: you said, the market is speaking volumes in my opinion,

452
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 2: and you know this is why I am again leaning

453
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 2: Carolina at plus four. Like you had mentioned, they are

454
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 2: coming off a bye, so they've had two weeks to

455
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 2: prepare and this season, NFL teams following the bye week

456
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: are actually fifteen and nine straight up, So it's not

457
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 2: a long shot that the Panthers could win this game outright.

458
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll take the points, and travel is not

459
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 2: an issue in this game. Again, well rested from their bye,

460
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: and they are going up against one of the top

461
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: defenses in the league. I mean, sorry, they went up

462
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: against one of the top defenses in the league, the

463
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos, and Sam Darnold was actually pretty efficient. He

464
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 2: didn't turn the ball over and he they ran the

465
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 2: ball a ton, and Panthers are a better team offensively

466
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 2: when they run the ball a lot, and I expect

467
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: them to do the same to keep the ball out

468
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: of Gino Smith's hands. So that's why I'm going to

469
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 2: take the points on this one and I'll take Carolina.

470
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: The one thing, and your point to the running game

471
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 1: for the Panthers is well taken and Dante Foreman has

472
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: been really good. I think as the you know, kind

473
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 1: of mid season replacement for Christian McCaffrey after the trade,

474
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: the injury report situation with him, Like, I think he's

475
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 1: probably gonna play. He didn't practice yesterday, he did practice

476
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: today on a limited basis, so he's probably going to play,

477
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: but he is dealing with a foot injury, and so

478
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 1: if he if he's not quite his full self, like

479
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 1: I start to have a little less faith in the

480
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 1: offense for the Panthers. But do you have any thoughts

481
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: on on his injury situation?

482
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think you pretty much highlighted everything

483
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 2: that you know, Uh, it's unfortunate that he was limited

484
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: with practice, but I still at the end of the day,

485
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna play.

486
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, So yeah, yeah, he probably does. All right, So

487
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: we're we're on opposite sides there. I mean, I feel

488
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: like you're you're you're on the sharper side here. I

489
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: just have to imagine given how strongly the market moved

490
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 1: against the Seahawks here, and you know, I actually kind

491
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 1: of want to ask like a bigger picture question here

492
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 1: the Seahawks because I think something kind of goes into

493
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 1: this line of maybe the book makers, the odds makers

494
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: think that a certain perspective exists of the Seahawks, and

495
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: then the market moves against them. But how are you

496
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: viewing the Seahawks here? You know, because now that we've

497
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 1: had the brock pretty injury in San Francisco, the Seahawks

498
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 1: have chance of winning this division if they can string

499
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: together some wins here like they are, they're within striking distance.

500
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: But it seems as if the market really doesn't think

501
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: that the Seahawks are really even an average team. What

502
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 1: what is your overall assessment of the Seahawks?

503
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I was even just looking at just

504
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: maybe my top five NFC teams that I like, and

505
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: you know, I Seahawks are kind of they're they're up there,

506
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 2: They're getting up there. I mean, you know, looks good,

507
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: just like you've been talking about. I mean, that's every

508
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 2: you know, we're all seeing it, how well he's playing

509
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: this season. But I just don't know how legitimate they

510
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 2: get deep in the playoffs. And even with San Francisco's situation,

511
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: I kind of still like him. You know, Shanahan doesn't

512
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: care about his quarterbacks.

513
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 3: We know this.

514
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 2: His system is based on running the ball yards after

515
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 2: the catch and defense. Uh, pretty should be able to

516
00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: manage this offense. So as much as that might be

517
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 2: a big issue with the Niners, I'm I'm kind of

518
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 2: leaning more towards liking the Niners still more than liking

519
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 2: the Seahawks at at this.

520
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: Time right now.

521
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as good as Gino Smith has been

522
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 2: playing and showing him you know, and you know, of

523
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 2: showing just how well he's playing actually the season and

524
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: he's you know, at the end of the day, I'm

525
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:16,719
Speaker 2: still with the Niners.

526
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, wins championships.

527
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: I certainly still have the Niners ahead of the Seahawks

528
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 1: in my my power ratings, you know, still still the

529
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: better team. Okay, So Jessica, thanks for joining us. Tell

530
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 1: the people where to follow you on social and where

531
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: to find the work that you're doing and any pieces

532
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: any content that you have coming out.

533
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, I mean you can find me.

534
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 2: The biggest way to find me is on Twitter, so

535
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: grid Aaron and Wine and there that's where you'll be

536
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: able to see where I post things. For Action Network

537
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 2: is the majority of where all my work will be

538
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: found as well, but I post a lot of plays

539
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 2: on there. You can always message me through there and

540
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: as well as catch any articles or anything like that

541
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 2: I'll writing.

542
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 1: All right, the grid Iron and wine do you also?

543
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: Do you do like wine content? Are you a connoisseur

544
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 1: of vino?

545
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 2: I'm a connoisseur of all forms of alcohol, but.

546
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 3: Yes, you know is one of my favorite. But yes,

547
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 3: I mean I don't.

548
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: I don't have like a whole any type of show

549
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 2: or anything like that specifically on wine. But I always

550
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 2: talk about wine, and I've spent some time in Napa,

551
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: and I'm always down to drink some wine.

552
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: Okay, good to know. It's a good handle. It's a

553
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: great Twitter handle.

554
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 3: Thank you.

555
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's better. It's better than Matt F. The Oracle

556
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 1: Man if I could go back in time anyway. All right, Jessica,

557
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: thanks for joining the show. She is Jessica Gridiron. I'm

558
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman at Matt F the Orcle. Check out Betting

559
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 1: Pros and Fantasy Pros for all of my work best bets,

560
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: player props, Fantasy favorites, player projections and rankings, and more.

561
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate interview on your

562
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 1: favorite podcast app that is going to do it for

563
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 1: the Week fourteen Best Bets edition of the Betting Pros Pod.

564
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, good Luck and See you Now,

565
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: Episode h