1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall here in Washington alongside Joe Matthew, where we 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: have been learning more all day from other US officials 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 2: after President Trump yesterday announced that Venezuela would relinquish up 9 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 2: to fifty million barrels of oil to the US, and 10 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 2: we had just in really the last hour, White House 11 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: Press Secretary Caroline Lovett outlining a little bit more. She 12 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: says that the US is selectively rolling back sanctions to 13 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 2: facilitate the transport and the sale to the global oil market. 14 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 2: But in terms of a timeline, that's still perhaps an 15 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 2: open question. Here's what Secretary of State Marco Rubio told 16 00:00:58,480 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: reporters on Capitol Hill early. 17 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 3: I'm not going to give you a timeline on it. 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 4: We wanted to move as soon as possible, but we 19 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 4: didn't expect this. It has been three days since this happened, 20 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 4: four days since this happened. So I understand that in 21 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 4: this cycle and the society we now live in, everyone 22 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 4: wants instant outcomes that wanted to happen overnight. 23 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 5: It's not going to work that way, but work. 24 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 4: We're already seeing progress with this new deal that's been 25 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 4: announced and more deals to follow. You already seeing how 26 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 4: the leverage of the United States have over those introm 27 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 4: authorities is going to begin to lead to positive outcome. 28 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 6: Which brings us to the headline of the terminal US 29 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 6: sees is two more ships as Trump Titans Venezuela quarantine. 30 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 6: One of these ships we chased halfway around the world. 31 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 6: This is the one that escaped the blockade a couple 32 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 6: of weeks ago in the Caribbean and made it almost 33 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 6: all the way to Iceland, where we intercepted on board 34 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 6: of the ship earlier. That's where we start our conversation 35 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 6: with Colonel Sanders. He's back with us today. It's one 36 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 6: of the first names we asked for, Wayne Sanders, Bloomberg 37 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 6: Intelligence senior defense research analysts and of course retired Army colonel. 38 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 3: It's great to see you here, welcome back. 39 00:01:58,880 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 7: Thank you for having me. 40 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 6: I can't imagine what it's like to be on these 41 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 6: boats when the helicopters come down on the deck. Can 42 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 6: you give us a sense just what it's like to 43 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 6: be the captain of one of these vessels when you 44 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 6: see America coming in. 45 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 3: Your rear view mirror. What do they do when they 46 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 3: land on the boat? 47 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 7: So, first thing, if you're that captain and you actually 48 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 7: see the US Coast Guard from behind you, you then 49 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 7: see AC one thirty gun ships flying over your head 50 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 7: along with something called an eight P eight Poseidon which 51 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 7: is a sub hunter. Yes, these are all going around you. 52 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 7: While then the UK is also involved. 53 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 6: As you're in a real busy space all of a sudden, 54 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 6: absolutely and. 55 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 7: Then all of a sudden, now you are going to 56 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 7: have a helicopter that's coming and you're having US troops 57 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 7: board board your vessel to be able to take over. 58 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 7: But they they did it in a great way in 59 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 7: terms of the title and authorities on how they actually 60 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 7: did it. 61 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 3: The Coast Guard being. 62 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 7: Involved in this instead of US Navy personnel boarding the 63 00:02:55,840 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 7: boat allows it in terms of that law enforcement, the 64 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 7: maritime law enforcement piece that's really going back into the 65 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 7: sanction and. 66 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 2: Damit for this, and that sort of ties to what 67 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,679 Speaker 2: we saw in Venezuela. Right, when we hear the administration 68 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 2: talk about executing a law enforcement action, can you just 69 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 2: talk to us about how critical that difference is when 70 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: we're talking about actually going out seizing what it means 71 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: for the implications for our military. No. 72 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 7: Absolutely, So these were sanctioned vessels that dealt with with 73 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 7: black market oil, crude oil, and so as such, right, 74 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 7: the difference between the Coast Guard and the Navy, If 75 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 7: the Navy does it, it ends up be having a much 76 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 7: higher level escalation on the public stage. So the fact 77 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 7: that the Coastguard was the one that was following this vessel. 78 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 7: They originally tried to board the vessel a couple of 79 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 7: weeks ago and then started following it, and they waited 80 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 7: the US waited to board this until this point becomes 81 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 7: key because it's not an active war at that point 82 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 7: in time. You are looking at it more in terms 83 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 7: of the law enforcement side. The blockade stays input the 84 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 7: skipper that was boarded a couple of weeks ago as 85 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 7: well as then today you've got the marin Era as 86 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 7: well as the SOFIA, So they're doing this under the 87 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 7: law enforcement side. 88 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: The Coast Guard is playing in pivot role. And it's 89 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: really interesting. 90 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 6: This video that we're showing on Bloomberg TV and on 91 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 6: YouTube is wild taken with night goggles, I guess, or 92 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 6: night vision here as you see them climbing the stairs 93 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 6: up to the bridge of this ship. And you see 94 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 6: right now if you're watching the helicopter coming down on 95 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 6: the deck of this boat, there they are climbing the stairs. 96 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 3: Colonel, do they knock or do they knock the door down? 97 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 7: Well, I think at this point in time they're looking 98 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 7: for rules engagement. We're probably very clear before they actually 99 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 7: boarded that boat. So it's probably a no knock warrant, 100 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 7: a no knock warrant that allows them that allows them 101 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 7: to be able to go in and be able to 102 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 7: do that. They've already provided entry at that point in time, 103 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 7: they're already on the vessel. So at that point in time, 104 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 7: what is going to provide them with the most forced 105 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 7: protection to be able to and they always do it 106 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 7: with the least amount right escalation of force, So they're 107 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 7: going to start at that lower level. And if you're 108 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 7: that captain on the vessel, I think at that point 109 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 7: in time, you've been followed by the Coastguard. You've got 110 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 7: the gunships ahead, I'll go before exist. 111 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 2: Right leading up to this, we saw what appear to 112 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 2: be an escalation by Russia. Right, they had sent a 113 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 2: submarine to escort one of these tankers. Does this action 114 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 2: by the US risk inflaming those tensions between the US 115 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 2: and Russia? What do those sorts of communications look like 116 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 2: between Washington and the Kremlin? 117 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 7: Are their communications there were because Russia came and said 118 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 7: that they were concerned about the fact that the Coast 119 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 7: Guard was following along. But the US comes in and 120 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 7: talks about the fact this was a stateless vessel up 121 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 7: until that point. This is not a US or excuse me, 122 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 7: this is not a Russian flagged vessel when they avoided 123 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 7: when the marin era back then, actually it was called 124 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 7: the Bela One. Yes, when the Belo One tried to 125 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 7: get down to the blockade, when they turned around, they 126 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 7: immediately started to paint a Russian flag on the side, 127 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 7: and then they provided the registration paperwork to Russia. Now, 128 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 7: Russia normally actually inspects and does normal pieces before they 129 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 7: actually uh register a vessel and flag them underneath theirs. 130 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 7: They did not do that in this case. So then 131 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 7: when the Russian submarine is coming up. They're the ones 132 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 7: who actually provided a Title ten military action, if you will, 133 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 7: compared to the US Coast Guard Title fourteen or under 134 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 7: Title eighteen under law enforcement authorities. Both of those that 135 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 7: escalation actually came from Russia. So I think when looking 136 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 7: at the political calculus on that was, hey, look we 137 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 7: still boarded the vessel using our law enforcement authorities. Sure, 138 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 7: but yes, the fact that the Russian was there it 139 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 7: did have to play into. Okay, is the right is 140 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:40,239 Speaker 7: the Russian submarine going to engage? 141 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 6: So what do we think about that? Do you mention 142 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 6: that P three sub hunter? Do they bug out when 143 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 6: they see hardware like that when the United States is around? 144 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 3: Or does that draw submarines to the scene? 145 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 7: Well, I think I think at that point in time, 146 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 7: I don't know whether the indicators and warnings for that 147 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 7: submarine knows that they're actually being seen or watched and 148 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 7: tracked by a PP side, but those sub hunters do 149 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 7: wind up playing a very critical role. 150 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 3: Wow. 151 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 6: See, I was looking forward to this conversation all day. 152 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 6: We just learned a lot from the colonel. There's only 153 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 6: one Colonel Sanders. 154 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 5: Really fascinating. 155 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 2: Wayne Sanders Bloomberg Intelligence senior defense and research analysts. Thank 156 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 2: you so much, And to continue this conversation, we're going 157 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: to bring in our political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino, 158 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 2: both Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick is from a partner at 159 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 2: Strong Court Capital and Genie Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard 160 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center. 161 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 3: So, Rick, two more vessels. 162 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 2: Is this the kind of leverage that the US keeps 163 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 2: talking about when we hear officials say that they have 164 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: this pressure campaign to have Venezuela go along with the 165 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 2: US's wishes in the country. 166 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's really kind of complex to follow the reporting 167 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 8: on this. One day yesterday they were talking about dropping 168 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 8: these sanctions and opening up for business is normal now 169 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 8: that we have freed Venezuela, And then the same news cycle, 170 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 8: we're chasing down these two vessels and boarding a third. 171 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 8: So uh, yeah, it is a pressure campaign. Clearly they 172 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 8: felt they needed the UFL that it needed more pressure 173 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 8: on the current Venezuela and hunt that's ruling the country. 174 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: And we don't know why. 175 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 8: We don't know what they have or have not done 176 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 8: for us, But I think this is going to continue 177 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 8: to break through the headlines, and even though the President 178 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 8: was trying to change the subject today on housing pricing, 179 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 8: I mean, we're going to be talking about Venezuela and 180 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 8: chasing down tankers because it's a really sexy, interesting story, 181 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 8: and you know, Donald Trump doesn't stand a chance of 182 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 8: getting in the way of this one. 183 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 3: Well. 184 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 6: Rick makes a point here, Genie, it's like a Tom 185 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 6: Clancy novel every day around here. What do Americans think 186 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 6: when they see that video we were just showing of 187 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 6: such a level of projection of American power and the 188 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 6: risks that come with it. 189 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 9: You know, I think they see it as an example 190 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 9: of how strong and powerful and disciplined our military is, 191 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 9: and this capacity we've seen in these operations and just 192 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 9: the last you know, ninety six hundred hours are incredible, 193 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 9: and I don't think any American doubts that. But I 194 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 9: do think as you think about the risks, there are 195 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 9: questions about why are we doing this? And politically, the 196 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 9: President has not done a good job of explaining why 197 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 9: this is in the interest of the United States and 198 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 9: of Americans. And Rick just mentioned the issue of housing, 199 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 9: which the President is trying to turn to today. This 200 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 9: is what Americans really care about is what is this 201 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 9: going to do for us? And you know when Donald 202 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 9: Trump talks about the millions billions of oil, the barrels 203 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 9: of oil that are going to come in, he doesn't 204 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 9: talk about how loving the oil market like that will 205 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 9: reduce will reduce the price, and that's not good for 206 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 9: the oil market here. Care about that more from oil 207 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 9: executives on Friday. So a lot of the messaging on this, 208 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 9: beyond the actual military operations, is really muddled politically, and 209 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 9: they're going to have to wrap their head around it. 210 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 9: Otherwise American see a president who's focused on other countries 211 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 9: and other parts of the world and not the very 212 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 9: big challenges we face here at home. 213 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 2: Well, we can talk about those challenges and we can 214 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 2: talk about housing. Because Rick to pick up on the 215 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 2: headline that we ran at the top of the program, 216 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 2: President Trump saying he would move to ban institutional investors 217 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 2: from buying single family homes. We've seen a lot of 218 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 2: executive action from this White House, but this is an 219 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 2: instance where he is calling on Congress to codify this policy. 220 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 2: Is this something that could potentially actually get bipartisan support 221 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 2: in this era of Congress? 222 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 8: Sure, I think that anything that really goes to the 223 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 8: heart of the basket of issues around. You know, prices 224 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 8: is going to find attraction with both Republicans and Democrats. 225 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 8: It's going to be very hard for everybody to set 226 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 8: aside their partisan interest in an election year. So that 227 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 8: being said, it all is going to depend upon what 228 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 8: that policy is. But I think you know when you 229 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 8: look at the contributor to inflation and affordability that housing 230 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 8: prices have represented really quite for some time since twenty twenty, 231 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 8: Since twenty twenty, the Case Shiller index on housing prices 232 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 8: has gone up sixty eight percent. I mean, that has 233 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 8: squeezed so many people out of the markets, and now 234 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 8: you have corporations taking advantage of the inefficiency. What did 235 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 8: Donald Trump say today? People should own houses, not corporations. 236 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 8: That kind of simple phrasing is going to be attractive 237 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:44,359 Speaker 8: to both Republicans and Democrats. 238 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, that is a good line, Genie. 239 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 6: Is that align the Democrats whish they were already using 240 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 6: Because this is moving markets here, This is going to 241 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 6: be a very big deal for these companies. 242 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 3: And I just wonder if. 243 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 6: We should assume that this will bring housing prices down 244 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 6: because the President has actually expressed concern about rating people's 245 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 6: nest eggs, which is their home. 246 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 9: That's right, you know, I would say I think the 247 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 9: Democrats have been well ahead on this. How many decades 248 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 9: have we been hearing from Democrats that corporations are not people? 249 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 9: And this this speaks to the fact that Donald Trump 250 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 9: once again has sided on the populist side of this, 251 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 9: and I think rightly so. But I'm not convinced that 252 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 9: there's not going to be pushed back constitutionally and legally 253 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 9: on this. You know, how can you tell an institution 254 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 9: if indeed these corporations are legally defined as people, that 255 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 9: they cannot purchase what they want to purchase. That's something 256 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 9: that Republicans have talked about for an awfully long time. 257 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 9: So I think it's going to be fascinating to see 258 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 9: how that plays legally. But I do think the President 259 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 9: the White House promised towards the end of last year 260 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 9: that this was going to be a big year with 261 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 9: aggressive housing reform plans. He talked to about fifty year mortgages, 262 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 9: all these kinds of things, and I think this is 263 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 9: the first sort of shot across the bow on that. 264 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 9: I think it's a good one for him, But again, 265 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 9: it's going to be supported by Democrats. I'm not so 266 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 9: sure how Republicans who talk about corporations as people are 267 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 9: going to feel about the idea now that they can't 268 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 9: buy homes. And by the way, does that mean they 269 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 9: can no longer fund campaigns? I certainly hope not. But 270 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 9: the President hasn't said anything about that either. 271 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 3: No, I don't know if we're going to be doing 272 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 3: that today. 273 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 6: Rick, we all thought the same thing when this post 274 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,839 Speaker 6: hit truth social and that was the State of the Union. 275 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 6: This is the type of thing that a president would 276 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 6: roll out in the big speech before the Joint Session 277 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 6: of Congress, and we know that the invitation is likely 278 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 6: soon to go. When you step back and think about 279 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 6: that framing of the president's second year here, how much 280 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 6: of the State of the Union is going to be 281 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 6: about this domestic affordability versus geopolitics and the don Roe doctrine. 282 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 8: Well, I can't imagine the doctrine, or at least, you know, 283 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 8: his corollary to the Menreau doctrine isn't going to be 284 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 8: a central focus of how he believes he's helping America 285 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,199 Speaker 8: by being able to establish, you know, these relationships in 286 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 8: a place like Venezuela and look at how much we've 287 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 8: gotten already out of it. You know, fifty million barrels 288 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 8: of oil. Can't help himself. So I think there will 289 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 8: be a litany of that. And by the way, right 290 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 8: we've got all these looming tariffs that are supposedly delivering 291 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 8: trillions of dollars to the federal government. I mean, like 292 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 8: there's I think that we're going to see an accounting 293 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 8: of how rich the country is based on what he's done. 294 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 3: And I think these kinds of things like the housing. 295 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 8: Device that he's come up with as a way of 296 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 8: trying to protect himself from looking like he's leaving people behind. 297 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 6: Fascinating moment here, and we expect we'll be hearing from 298 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 6: the President later on today about it. Rick Davis and 299 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 6: Jeanie Shanzeno, thank you both. With the EO and maybe 300 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 6: legislation forthcoming. We'll talk about it later with Congressman Brian's 301 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 6: style here on Bloomberg, stay with. 302 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 3: Us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming 303 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: up after this. 304 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 305 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, 306 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 307 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 308 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 309 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 6: The President dropped quite a story in our laugh certainly 310 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 6: dropped it on the market. This housing story that Charlie 311 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 6: was just referring to. It's moving stocks across the board, 312 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 6: from Blackstone to Pulty to invitation homes. We learned about 313 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 6: it on truth Social. For a very long time, the 314 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 6: President writing, buying and owning a home was considered the 315 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 6: pinnacle of the American dream, the reward for working hard 316 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 6: and doing the right thing. But now, because of the 317 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 6: record high inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats 318 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 6: in Congress, he says that American dream is increasingly out 319 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 6: of reach for far too many people. And so as 320 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 6: I read down here, he says, I'm immediately taking steps 321 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 6: to ban large institutional investors from buying more single family homes, 322 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 6: and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. 323 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 3: It is where we start our conversation. 324 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 6: With Congressman Brian Style, the Republican from Wisconsin who chairs 325 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 6: the House Administration Committee and serves on House Financial Services 326 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 6: with us now live from Capitol Hill, and Congressman, it's 327 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 6: great to see you in the new year. Thanks for 328 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 6: joining us here as always on Bloomberg TV and radio. 329 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 6: I'm assuming this is something that comes out of finnserv 330 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 6: I'm wondering your thoughts on this, where legislation might be 331 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 6: sourced and is this an idea that Republicans can get behind. 332 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 10: Well, far too many people can't afford the homes that 333 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 10: they could have a generation a go. As we have 334 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 10: seen interest rates continue to stay high, mortgages are more 335 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 10: difficult to get into, and we know we have a 336 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 10: significant supply problem. I look forward to seeing the president's 337 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 10: speech that he's previewing in that message when he's in 338 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 10: Davos about exactly what his plan is. But I think 339 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 10: it's across the board imperative that we work to make 340 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 10: it more accessible for families to get into a home. 341 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 10: I think the two key policies that we should be 342 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 10: working on here on Capitol Hill are working on policies 343 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 10: that reduce inflation so the Federal Reserve can bring down 344 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 10: interest rates, and then working on increasing the housing supply. 345 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 10: As we increase total supply, that is going to be 346 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 10: our best tool to ultimately bring down costs. 347 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 2: But for clarity, Congressman, would you support a bill banning 348 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 2: institutional investers from buying single family homes as outlined by 349 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 2: the President, And can you give us any insight into 350 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 2: whether or not this was a surprise? Was this dropped 351 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 2: in Congress's lap, or was House Financial Services, for example, 352 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 2: given a heads up beforehand. 353 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 10: Well, there's been obviously a lot of discussion for a 354 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 10: long time about whether or not institutional investors should be 355 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 10: buying single family homes and what the implications are into 356 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 10: the broader cost structure across the country. The President, in 357 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 10: his message moments ago, said he's going to provide additional 358 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 10: details in a couple of weeks. I look forward, like 359 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 10: many others, to seeing exactly what that would look like. Again, 360 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 10: to me, the biggest thing that we can be doing 361 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 10: in Washington is reducing inflation to lower interest rates, and 362 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 10: working to increase total housing supply by removing in particular 363 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 10: regulatory red tapes. I look forward to seeing the proposal, 364 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 10: evaluating it when we do, but working broadly to make 365 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 10: sure that we are working to make housing more affordable 366 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,399 Speaker 10: and accessible to families in the United States. 367 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 6: Well, it sounds like you need to hear more. Congressman, 368 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 6: what's this process going to look like? As I'm assuming 369 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 6: with the companies that we're seeing move here from Blackstone 370 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 6: on down that I mentioned, there's going to be a 371 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 6: massive lobbying effort against this. 372 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 3: Do you expect such a debate? 373 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 10: Well, this debate is in many ways ongoing for months. 374 00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 10: I think there is a lot of concern about what 375 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 10: is driving up housing costs, making getting into in particular 376 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,640 Speaker 10: a new home for young couples more and more difficult. 377 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 10: I think there's a lot of policies that have been 378 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 10: on the table. The Financial Services Committee moved forward a 379 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 10: housing package just before Christmas with broad bipartisan support, showing 380 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 10: that even here in a period of time of hyperpartisanship, 381 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 10: we're able to move legislation to bring down the cost 382 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 10: to housing. I applaud the President for engaging in this 383 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 10: space and look forward to seeing the proposal. 384 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 2: Something else that we have our eyes on today in 385 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 2: Congress is this vote on potentially extending the affordable character 386 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 2: premium subsidies in your chamber. Yesterday, President Trump told House 387 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 2: Republicans to be quote flexible on the High Amendment, which 388 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 2: has become a flashpoint in this debate, that's the policy 389 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 2: barring federal funding for most abortions. Do you agree with 390 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 2: the President that Republicans should be more flexible when it 391 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 2: comes to the High Amendment. 392 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 10: I don't think Americans should be required to pay for abortions. 393 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 10: I think the High Amendments and important amendment that protects 394 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 10: Americans who do not support federal funding of abortions. That said, 395 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 10: I think there's a big opportunity to make sure that 396 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 10: we're lowering the cost of health care for all Americans. 397 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 10: And that's what's so important here. So many Americans can't 398 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 10: afford and utilize the health insurance even if they have 399 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 10: health insurance. 400 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,679 Speaker 3: There's a lot of proposals. 401 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 10: On the table Republicans that move forward with a number 402 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 10: of them, things such as PBM reform, that we should 403 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 10: be working collectively together. Yet we often are seeing just 404 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 10: really aggressive positions from Democrats on this position. That's making 405 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 10: it difficult to find that broad common ground that I 406 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 10: think does exist in many ways to lower the cost 407 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 10: of health care for all Americans. 408 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 3: So where do you think this is going to? Congressman? 409 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 6: We've got this discharge petition that Tyler refers to that's 410 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 6: going to bring a floor vote, I believe tomorrow on 411 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 6: extending Obamacare subsidies. There is not a companion bill in 412 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 6: the Senate. Is this just a show vote or is 413 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 6: this the beginning of a renewed effort to find a 414 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 6: bridge to a different plan. 415 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,919 Speaker 10: A discharge petition is really a blunt force instrument to 416 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 10: force a debate on any given topic. As I have 417 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 10: often said, inside the Democrat drafted subsidies that are going 418 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 10: to insurance companies, there's significant waste, frauden abuse, and there's 419 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:28,439 Speaker 10: Biden administration memos from their Treasury Department outlining how this 420 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 10: is being abused by insurance companies, and so at a minimum, 421 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 10: we would need significant reforms. I think broadly there is 422 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 10: space where we can work to lower the cost of 423 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 10: healthcare for all Americans. I think again PBM reform hsas 424 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 10: in empowering individuals to be purchasing that insurance rather than 425 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 10: empowering insurance companies as the Democrat legislation has done, is 426 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 10: the best path forward. 427 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 2: In the funnel minute we have you, Congressman, do we 428 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 2: have any insight into one President Trump state of the 429 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 2: Unions is going to happen? Is it on track for 430 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 2: the end of February, as we get some previews from 431 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 2: him in his post today. 432 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 10: I don't have the scheduling in front of me, but 433 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 10: I would assume that it will be in that time frame. 434 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 3: That's when it's historically been. 435 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,479 Speaker 10: And this is a great opportunity for the President to 436 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 10: come to Capitol Hill, not only to explain to the 437 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 10: American people in clear terms what we have already accomplished 438 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 10: and how Americans will see more income in their paychecks 439 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 10: as a result of the One Big, Beautiful Bill and 440 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 10: the tax reductions, about the success we've had at securing 441 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 10: the border, but also about the work that we still 442 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 10: need to do yet this year and some of the 443 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 10: heavy lifts that we have in front of us to 444 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 10: continue to get this country back on track. 445 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 2: All right, Congressman Brian Style, Republican representing Wisconsin's first district 446 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 2: and Chair of the House Administration Committee, thanks for joining 447 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,440 Speaker 2: us here on Bloomberg, and we're going to bring back 448 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 2: in our political panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and 449 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 2: Jeanie Schanzano to extend the conversation. Rick, let's pick up 450 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 2: on healthcare, because this is going to make some headlines 451 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 2: this week, Where do you actually see this debate heading? 452 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 3: Is this at this. 453 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 2: Point a messaging ploy or can we actually get some 454 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 2: tangible policy this week? 455 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 10: Yeah? 456 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,119 Speaker 3: I think we're going to get tangible policy this week. 457 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,680 Speaker 8: Thune has made it clear on a statement of the 458 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 8: Press on Monday that he's making progress on a bipartisan 459 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 8: bill to address ACA. 460 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 3: I think it basically. 461 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,360 Speaker 8: Looked list at a group of reforms that they want 462 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 8: to apply. You know, minimum premium payments would be included 463 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 8: in that. It would be only a two year extension 464 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 8: of the ACA subsidy rather than a three year that's 465 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 8: in the. 466 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 3: House bill will be voted on tomorrow. 467 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 8: So my guess is that you get leadership from the Senate, 468 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 8: a bill pop out, the household, gets a momentum behind 469 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 8: this discharge petition, and a vote tomorrow, and you're going 470 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 8: to see quick action when it comes. But I think 471 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 8: everybody's pulling now together with the idea that they don't 472 00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 8: want to go through another government shutdown where this is 473 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 8: on the table. 474 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 6: So does the turnout on this vote tell us what 475 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 6: happens next? 476 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:06,439 Speaker 3: Genie? 477 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 6: If this is a convincing number when this passes, assuming 478 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 6: it does as we saw on the discharge on Thursday. 479 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 6: Does that compel john fun to take another look? 480 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 9: I think it will, and I think John Thune has 481 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 9: signaled that he is going to take another look. I 482 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 9: think the real question is going to be if he 483 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 9: does that and you get something out of the Senate, 484 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 9: what then does Mike Johnson do. He'll have to put 485 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 9: it up for a vote, presumably, But we just have 486 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 9: to take a step back and think about what he 487 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 9: is asking so many Republicans to do, and that is 488 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 9: going to be sold by Democrats and others as support 489 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 9: the ACA, something that many of them make their entire 490 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 9: career on trying to get rid of, and now they 491 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 9: are being asked to do something that's going to be 492 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 9: very hard. So Mike Johnson is going to have himself 493 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,479 Speaker 9: in a position. It is possible something gets through, but 494 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 9: it is I think a heck of a way for 495 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 9: Republicans to have to start the year. And oh, by 496 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,959 Speaker 9: the way, if they don't get this done, it is 497 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 9: political suicide. To use Tony Fagrizio's point, because they are 498 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,919 Speaker 9: then facing a midterm with rising health care costs, people 499 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 9: kicked out of the marketplace, and showing the American public 500 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 9: when they own Washington, they can't make they can't make 501 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 9: our lives more affordable. That's a huge problem, particularly for 502 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,360 Speaker 9: those in purple states like Mike Lawler where I am 503 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 9: right now, So a big problem if they don't get 504 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 9: this done. 505 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 2: Reck in our final minute here, how is this made 506 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 2: even more complicated by the fact that there's now a 507 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 2: to vote margin in the House, or at least March, 508 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 2: when we're then expecting Marjorie Taylor green Sea to be refilled. 509 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 2: How does that change the calculus of all of this. 510 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it means that whatever happens has to 511 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,639 Speaker 8: be bipartisan. They're not going to win anything on a 512 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,719 Speaker 8: party vote at this stage. And I do think there 513 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 8: are a lot of Republicans, you know, GENI mentioned Mike Lawler, 514 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,919 Speaker 8: who you know, they have actually been outspoken about trying 515 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 8: to resurrect this ACA subsidy for their own good right 516 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 8: because they've got to run in the district where that's 517 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 8: going to matter. 518 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 6: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are great panel Thank you 519 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,400 Speaker 6: both Bloomberg Politics contributors, helping us get to the point 520 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 6: on a couple of major stories that are developing before 521 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 6: our eyes today. Alongside Tyler Kendall. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 522 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 6: Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power only 523 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 6: on Bloomberg TV and radio. 524 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 525 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 526 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 1: Alma Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 527 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,119 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 528 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:52,360 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 529 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 6: We are watching these stocks move though housing stocks and financials, 530 00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 6: which we're already not having a great day on this 531 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 6: news for the White House. The President wants to ban 532 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 6: institutional buyers from this single family home market. Look at 533 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 6: Blackstone down five percent. Here, I can go on invitation 534 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 6: homes down over eight percent. Lenar like many homebuilders down 535 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 6: about two percent. Nora Melnda used to cover the home 536 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 6: building space for a living, and while we typically talk 537 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 6: about broader market trends with Nora, we wanted to zero 538 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,119 Speaker 6: in on this and she joins us from world headquarters 539 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 6: in New York. Nora, how much of a disruption would 540 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 6: this be, especially if Congress were to codify the President's 541 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 6: EEO that he is signing to these companies that are 542 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 6: so deeply invested in this space. 543 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 11: Well, Joe, we're certainly seeing the market reaction today. We're 544 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 11: seeing records for lows for invitation homes, American Homes for rent, 545 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 11: all these companies that essentially specialize in purchasing a home 546 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,160 Speaker 11: and then flipping it, rinting it out, and they're essentially 547 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 11: betting on long term growth increases. And we did see 548 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 11: this actually really coming into the market a lot more 549 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,199 Speaker 11: after the pandemic. You were seeing a lot lot of 550 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,360 Speaker 11: institutional investors coming in. But what the broader question has 551 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 11: really been, and what it seems as though President Donald 552 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,399 Speaker 11: Trump is trying to get at, is the fact that 553 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 11: a lot of average Americans have had a hard time 554 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 11: purchasing homes, given the fact that rates still remain high, 555 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 11: given the fact that the prices still remain high, and 556 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 11: they're competing against institutional investors. So when you see what's 557 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 11: happening in the market and the fact that this is 558 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,160 Speaker 11: rattling it, it's not surprising because a lot of these 559 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 11: companies that's their entire business model here. But it's going 560 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 11: to be interesting to see whether or not this can 561 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,479 Speaker 11: actually be something that's pushed through Congress or if it's 562 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 11: just an idea right now as to whether or not 563 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 11: we'll actually see something more concrete, well, according. 564 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 2: To Congressman Brian's style at the moment, it sounds like 565 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 2: Congress needs to hear a lot more details before this happens. 566 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 2: But Nora, we also wanted to talk geopolitics. This redhead 567 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 2: crossed the Bloomberg terminal moments ago. The Venezuela state owned 568 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 2: oil and gas company does say it's in negotiations with 569 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 2: the US to sell crude. We know oil companies are 570 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 2: going to be meeting privately at the White House this Friday. 571 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,239 Speaker 11: Can you just tell us what the reaction has been like. 572 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 11: I mean, I'm looking at a crude oil right now. 573 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 11: It's hanging around fifty six dollars right now, and we're 574 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 11: looking at WTI for that one. But this has really 575 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 11: been interesting as we're continuing to follow geopolitics. I mean, 576 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 11: that's really what's been the focus much of the beginning 577 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 11: of this year. We're just a few days in, but 578 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 11: that's certainly been what's on the mine of a lot 579 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 11: of investors. So you're really seeing them thinking about how 580 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 11: they can best position themselves in this environment and what 581 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 11: that means for the broader implications economically for the US 582 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 11: and of course these foreign countries and where you can 583 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 11: really fit in on this trade. 584 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 5: That's what we're really seeing right now. 585 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 6: Tyler, just quickly, Nora, this is really interesting as we 586 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 6: watch oil prices decline. This is really not going well 587 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 6: for green energy stocks, because presumably the progression of green 588 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 6: energy would slow if we have all this cheap oil 589 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 6: and gas sloshing around. First Solar is down ten percent 590 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 6: right now, were twenty five dollars, Next Era Energy down 591 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 6: three percent. This is the other side of that coin, 592 00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 6: isn't it. 593 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 11: Absolutely? I mean, it's interesting to continue to watch this trait. 594 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 11: I'm looking at shares of First Solder down by at 595 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 11: about nine point six percent, so you're certainly seeing the 596 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 11: impact on that space in relation to just the proper 597 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 11: oil side or companies that are related in that space. 598 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 11: I mean, we were looking at Exon just a couple 599 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 11: of days ago, and it's interesting to really see what's 600 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 11: going on in terms of the actual implications that we're 601 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 11: seeing for greenstocks right now. 602 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 2: Absolutely all right, Bloomberg Television's market correspondent Nora Melinda, thanks 603 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 2: so much for giving us the latest, and we're going 604 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 2: to extend this conversation and bring in another expert. Patrick McHenry, 605 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 2: former chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and former 606 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 2: Speaker pro Tem and a Bloomberg contributor. Thanks for being here. 607 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 2: We want to start with President Trump's post here calling 608 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 2: for Congress to codify this idea surrounding housing. You used 609 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 2: to chair House Financial Services. How would this actually work 610 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 2: in practice? Would you be waiting for the White House 611 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 2: to reach out and give you details. Is this something 612 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 2: that Congress is going to have to start from the 613 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 2: ground up on? What could we actually see happening? 614 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 12: Well, first, I would wait. I think it's a terrible idea, 615 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 12: So I would wait. I would wait quite a while, 616 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 12: and I have hearings. I'd love to get the feedback 617 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 12: on the legislative text on how you execute this policy 618 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 12: in a legally binding way. But I think you have 619 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 12: to get into the question of the cost of housing. 620 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 12: And the question of cost of housing we've spent a 621 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 12: lot of time on in Congress, and there are no 622 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 12: simple answers here because most of the issues are regulatory 623 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 12: at the state and local level, and much of that 624 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 12: deals with land use policy in the most liberal domains 625 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 12: in the world. In America, not in the world necessarily, 626 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 12: but in America, and they're the ones that have the 627 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 12: most restrictive covenants on what you can do with land 628 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 12: and how many people can be housed on that land, 629 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 12: how many domiciles you can have, and so that is 630 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 12: a big driver of housing stock questions. In the areas 631 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 12: where you can build, like Houston, you can build and 632 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 12: housing is affordable even though you're rapidly growing. In an 633 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 12: area is where you may not be rapidly growing, like 634 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 12: San Francisco, housing stocks continue to rise at a more 635 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 12: aggressive pace because of the restrictive local policies. 636 00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 6: So this is not all a federal issue. Frankly, it 637 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,959 Speaker 6: was only moments after the President put this post on 638 00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 6: truth social we heard from, of all people, Bernie Moreno, 639 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 6: not Bernie Sanders, who writes on Twitter, millions of young 640 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 6: Americans have been locked out of the American dream. Donald 641 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 6: Trump is fighting back. I will introduce legislation in the 642 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 6: Senate to codify this into law. We just had Brian 643 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 6: style On, who used to sit on your committee of 644 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 6: the Republican from Wisconsin, who did not fall in behind this. 645 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 6: He said he needed to learn more. Is Bernie Moreno 646 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 6: on an island or is he. 647 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 3: Speaking for the Republican coin. 648 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 12: I have a mix of Republicans that are either for 649 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 12: it or need. 650 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 3: To learn this more conservative concepts. 651 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:55,400 Speaker 2: No. 652 00:32:55,600 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 12: Actually, what I've found is some of the some of 653 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 12: the most populist Republicans they would call themselves, get their 654 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:07,720 Speaker 12: ideas out of the progressive left. 655 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,480 Speaker 5: This comes out of the progressive left. 656 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 12: This is something that Maxi and Waters and I debated 657 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 12: in the House Financial Service Committee and previous congresses. It 658 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 12: is not an effective course of policy to have a 659 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:23,120 Speaker 12: meaningful impact on the cost of housing and affordability of housing. 660 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 12: In fact, the numbers of this, the numbers affected by 661 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 12: larger groups of ownership structures for housing individual houses, is 662 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 12: rather low in America. It's a very very small percentage, 663 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 12: and so I don't think this has a grand effect. 664 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 12: It does have a big statement though, that the President 665 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 12: does care about housing affordability, thinks that is meaningful and 666 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 12: it's something he should speak to. This goes into the 667 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 12: question of affordability and how the administration is going to 668 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 12: address it. They are going to be aggressive here and 669 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 12: they are not going to be dogmatic, and I think 670 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 12: that's the key takeaway here. Both for the market, but 671 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,720 Speaker 12: also the electorate for the midterm. 672 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 2: Well, I was going to ask, do you think Republicans 673 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 2: have a policy problem or a messaging problem, or maybe 674 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 2: you think no problem at all. But when we see 675 00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 2: what happened in November, Republicans losing a slew of elections, 676 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,320 Speaker 2: you see pulling sagging for the president, but importantly, consumer 677 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 2: sentiment also going down, and we know voters want to 678 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,879 Speaker 2: hear more about what the President's going to do when 679 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 2: it comes to affordability. 680 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 12: Well, overall economic data is rather strong. The President is 681 00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 12: right about that. But you get into what is underlying 682 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 12: the growth of the market. It's around the hyperscalers. It's 683 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 12: around AI deployment and the builds and AI. We see 684 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 12: that in GDP numbers. Without AI and the AI builds, 685 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 12: we would not would have a flat GDP, not a 686 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:45,760 Speaker 12: growing GDP. 687 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 5: So you see this. 688 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 12: Under the hood, if you will, and that is much 689 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 12: more problematic. The additional piece is your one year in 690 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 12: on an administration, not even one year in on the effects 691 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:03,920 Speaker 12: of their policy. So the effects of the President's regulatory relief, 692 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,560 Speaker 12: the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the 693 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,280 Speaker 12: work that they're doing with the administrative state and pairing 694 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:13,120 Speaker 12: down the federal workforce and the expense of federal government 695 00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 12: does have an impact over time, but it does take 696 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:21,400 Speaker 12: time for those to impact voter sentiment and their feel 697 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 12: But you can't take the Biden message and say what 698 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 12: you're feeling is not justified. What the voters are feeling 699 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 12: is still a real thing that has to be dealt 700 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 12: with by the political class, and if you don't respond 701 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 12: to it, well, you fall victim to voter sentiment. 702 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,360 Speaker 6: Ny kick Ki, interesting, Well, I want to want you 703 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 6: to bring us into the Speaker's office. We heard from 704 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 6: Mike Johnson earlier today, not a fan of extending Obamacare 705 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,799 Speaker 6: subsidies with regard to the whole affordability issue, but needs 706 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 6: to figure out a way to fund the government before 707 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 6: the end of this month, and it sounds like he's 708 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 6: pretty optimistic. 709 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,799 Speaker 3: Here's the speaker from earlier this week. 710 00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:59,440 Speaker 13: The House is going to advance, as you heard, the 711 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 13: next set of the f y twenty six appropriations bills. 712 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,879 Speaker 13: We're going to continue our strides to restore regular order 713 00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,479 Speaker 13: around here and get back to the appropriations process. We're 714 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 13: not totally there yet on the full you know what 715 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,320 Speaker 13: you would fully call regular order. But my, my, my, 716 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 13: have we pushed this boulder up that hill now? 717 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,000 Speaker 6: We're not ready to start playing the regular order drinking 718 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,440 Speaker 6: game yet, which is very popular around here at Bloomberg. 719 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,359 Speaker 3: But in all seriousness, how does this shake out? 720 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 6: You get a short term cr so these minibus bits 721 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 6: of legislation can pass. 722 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 2: It? 723 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:32,759 Speaker 6: Is it as simple as this? We were talking about 724 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,479 Speaker 6: maybe another shutdown a couple months ago. 725 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 12: Sure, And I don't think you take the shutdown all like. 726 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,440 Speaker 12: I think this idea that there's zero percent chance of 727 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 12: a shutdown is absurd. Wow, And so how do you 728 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 12: get through this? 729 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:44,800 Speaker 5: As well? 730 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 12: It's incumbent upon the Senate to produce bills. That is 731 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,279 Speaker 12: the key benchmark here. You have to have sixty votes. 732 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:51,920 Speaker 12: So the reason why we had a government shutdown is 733 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 12: because the Democratic minority withheld the votes. For the Republican 734 00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 12: majority to pass appropriations bills, you needed sixty votes. Republicans 735 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 12: so don't have a majority. They have a fifty three 736 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,880 Speaker 12: seat majority in the Senate. That is the crux of 737 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 12: the problem. And so for the House to make it 738 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 12: their problem is not correct. They should wait see what 739 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 12: the Senate can do and then pass what the Senate 740 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,000 Speaker 12: can do. That is actually the way for you to 741 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 12: have a continued resolution and to have many buses that 742 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 12: are structurally okay enough to pass. So I do think 743 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,440 Speaker 12: my view is you will have a resolution to government funding. 744 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 12: It will take months, though it will not be done 745 00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 12: at the end of this month. 746 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:34,720 Speaker 5: It will be extend. 747 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,799 Speaker 12: Get a few minibuses together with an extension the rest 748 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 12: of government, and do it bit by bit, and at 749 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,279 Speaker 12: some point you'll you'll have a continued resolution for the 750 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,160 Speaker 12: rest of government till the end of the fiscal year. 751 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:50,480 Speaker 12: Obamacare and healthcare is a different matter altogether. For Republicans 752 00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 12: to make it their problem is really not politically smart. 753 00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:56,520 Speaker 5: Healthcare is. 754 00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 12: Health care policy in America today has been almost entirely 755 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:07,200 Speaker 12: written by the Democratic Party. Medicare, Medicaid designed by the 756 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:14,080 Speaker 12: Democratic supermajorities. You have Obamacare, same There aren't Republican votes 757 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:18,799 Speaker 12: for those big pieces of federal legislation. Here we have 758 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,319 Speaker 12: ten million Americans that are affected by the loss of 759 00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 12: these additional subsidies under Obamacare that were put in place 760 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:28,960 Speaker 12: during COVID. Their expiration does not mean that these individuals 761 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 12: are directly affected. It means the states may be able 762 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 12: to take action to backfill some of this. But for 763 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,000 Speaker 12: Republicans to step into the narrative of rising healthcare costs, well, 764 00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,000 Speaker 12: they were rising before. They are actually no better now 765 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,600 Speaker 12: post to Obamacare than before Obamacare, and people like their 766 00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:48,279 Speaker 12: healthcare system less today than they did a decade and 767 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:49,200 Speaker 12: two decades ago. 768 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 5: So the problem is the same. 769 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 12: And Republicans stepping into this and trying to take ownership 770 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,400 Speaker 12: of it, well it becomes a political problem, not a 771 00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:58,320 Speaker 12: change of policy. 772 00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 2: Final thirty seconds that we have here, though, is this 773 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 2: going to result in tangible policy this year when it 774 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,240 Speaker 2: comes to healthcare and you hear the President talking about 775 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,960 Speaker 2: giving more money to consumers. We saw Bill Cassidy's law 776 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 2: for HSA's ultimately fail. Is there appetite to make real 777 00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,320 Speaker 2: changes when it comes to costs and healthcare? 778 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,879 Speaker 12: The House can pass the President's health initiatives to give 779 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:21,440 Speaker 12: money directly to individuals. 780 00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 5: The Senate doesn't have the vote. They don't have the 781 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:23,840 Speaker 5: votes to do that. 782 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,840 Speaker 12: So the Katie Brett Group and the Senate is the 783 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,440 Speaker 12: one to watch. If they can come to some conclusion 784 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,360 Speaker 12: within the next month, that will be the going concern 785 00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,960 Speaker 12: that will become the law of the land. If they 786 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,319 Speaker 12: cannot come to some conclusion, and I don't think they 787 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:41,200 Speaker 12: will because it's not in the Democratic Party's interest. Tell 788 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,560 Speaker 12: Republicans out of their own bind that they've created for themselves. 789 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 12: Then we'll see, We'll see you at the ballot box. Yeah, 790 00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:49,600 Speaker 12: and we'll see what happens. 791 00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,160 Speaker 6: Patrick McHenry, aren't you excited for the state of the Union. 792 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:54,759 Speaker 6: Is that a Musli infest this time or what? 793 00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,160 Speaker 12: Oh my gosh, it's going to be a shouting fest 794 00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 12: is what it will be. 795 00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:02,000 Speaker 6: Fasten your chin straps once again, Bloomberg Politics contributor former 796 00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:08,480 Speaker 6: Speaker pro Tem the Great Patrick McHenry. Thanks for listening 797 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,840 Speaker 6: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 798 00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 6: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 799 00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,399 Speaker 6: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 800 00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:22,000 Speaker 6: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.