WEBVTT - US Pauses Strikes on Iran; Miami vs NYC 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:37.600 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.120 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.600 This morning, The New York Times supporting on concerns within 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.120 the White House about another escalation with Iron that would 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.559 put golf use US and golf allies at risk. 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:50.440 Excuse me, that's right. 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:52.600 The Times is reporting that President Trump could be holding 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.440 off on a larger strike in part due to a 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:59.840 low supply of anti missile defenses. Now, US Ambassador the 0:00:59.880 --> 0:01:02.600 US when Mike Walls is on NBC right now or 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.320 will be soon. It looks like this was a pre 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.720 recorded interview pushing back against that report, saying the US 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:10.880 has all the equipment it needs, so to help us 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:13.600 break this down, We've got Beca Wasser, she's Bloomberg Economics 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:16.280 Defense lead, and Chris Kennedy he is the lead for 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.640 Economic statecraft. Butck, I want to start with you because 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.960 I know you've been covering the stockpile and its depletion 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.600 and where we are with these numbers. How real is 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.800 the concern over the defensive missile supply for the US. 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:30.480 It seems interesting if these reports are accurate, that the 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:34.040 US is now prescribing policy based on the integrity of 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:34.480 the supply. 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:36.319 Yeah. 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:39.160 I think we're at a really interesting inflection point where 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:42.000 right now, in the course of the conflict, there is 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:47.160 a huge strain on US air defense interceptors. That's not 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:49.880 to say that the US does not have any left, 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:54.560 but rather that there's a clear strain on the existing stockpiles, 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:59.560 which are running low after this extended conflict with Iran, 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:03.240 in part because of the sheer need not only from 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.520 the United States, which is trying to protect bases and 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:10.560 troops and some US allies in the region, but also 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:14.839 the allies themselves, who have depleted most of their air 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:19.200 defense stockpiles and have been asking the United States for more. 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:21.560 So at the end of the day, it's a pretty 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:25.680 stark place to be in, but it's not necessarily the 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:29.720 only thing that is dictating US military policy. We've seen 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.880 this song and danced before where President Trump has threatened 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:35.799 high escalation only to step back at the last moment 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:39.320 to leave some room for diplomacy. We've also seen President 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:42.160 Trump enter into faints in the past where he said 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:45.280 that there will be no strikes, only to go ahead 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.799 with that large operation. However, from my experience, if I'm 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:52.079 looking at things right now, the US does not have 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:57.480 sufficient defenses to weather the blowback that would likely come 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:01.920 from Iran if the US were to rapidly and extremely 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:03.239 ramp up this conflict. 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.079 You get Chris Kennedy here in just a minute of Becca, 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:06.520 one more question to you as I look at your 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.120 most recent piece for Bloomberg on all of this, you write, 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:13.200 the US lacks the munition's depth to bomb around in perpetuity. 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:14.959 The bigger risk is the US may run low of 0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:19.040 the right kinds of missiles. Help me understand what we 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:22.080 know and what we don't know. My understanding is the 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.880 size and scale of these arsenals is classified. 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:26.960 We have some sense of what the US has. 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:29.799 How blind are we when it comes to kind of 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:33.640 assessing what the US has at its disposal, We're. 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:35.360 Pretty blind, but I think there are a few different 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:38.520 rules of them that we can always rely on. We've seen, 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:42.280 at least in the initial fighting during Operation Epic Fury, 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:46.520 US officials said that there were over thirteen thousand munitions 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.200 that were expended, and most of those were some of 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:53.640 these higher and long range missiles that are in demand 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:56.680 all over the globe. And so the US is likely 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.960 having wound down some of its stockpiles for those critical munitions, 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:03.840 which means that it is either likely going to need 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:06.320 to pull some of those missiles from other regions like 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:09.240 the Indo Pacific, which could leave a potential gap for 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:13.080 others to exploit, or try and find ways to bolster 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:16.760 the production of munitions, which the US is doing. But 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.400 that's a slow moving effort. We are talking months, if 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:23.720 not years, to try and just produce a few more 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.080 of some of those most advanced missiles and munitions. 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.080 Wow, Chris Kennedy, thank you for hanging in there. We 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.919 do want to ask you more about the economic impact 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.240 of all this. Because oil hit one hundred dollars a 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.359 barrel for the first time in weeks. We now have 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:39.479 concerns not only about what's going on in the Strait 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:41.839 as it seems to drag on, and just the cost 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.599 of doing business with this level of instability. But now 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:46.719 you have these threats from the hou this which is 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:49.440 compromising exports not only in the Red Sea but possibly 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.719 production within Saudi Arabia. You know they can and have 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:56.520 before hit refineries and facilities there. What is your take 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:58.479 on that second front and if we're going to see that, 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.400 if we have seen that start to pry in the markets. 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:06.960 Yeah, so it's definitely a challenge. So the Red Sea 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.440 has now been the subject of several different attacks by 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:13.440 the huthis looking at I just looked at the recent 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:18.120 tanker traffic through the Red Sea and it is dropping 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.160 over the past few days. Of course, many ships might 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:22.480 be traveling without their transponders on, so it'll take a 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:25.160 few days to really see what the impact has been 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:28.680 on traffic. But we are getting anecdotal reports about ships 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:31.440 turning around having to traverse the Cape of Good Hope 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.080 at the southern tip of Africa, and that just adds 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.400 time to get oil to market. On top of the 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.960 Middle East conflict, we've also seen Ukraine ramp up its 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:44.200 attacks on Russian oil export infrastructure tankers, and so that's 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:47.000 another bit of pressure that's been growing in the background 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:48.839 as this conflict has continued. 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.680 Becka, you gained out sort of what the president his 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:55.279 team might be thinking about when it comes to the 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.600 future of this war, and you came up with three options. 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.479 The US could continue Bomberan, could intensify the blockade and 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:05.040 guidance of ships, or could launch an operation to forcibly 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:08.160 reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I wonder if you could 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:10.400 kind of put those in order of likelihood as you 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:13.120 see it, maybe order of difficulty as well, and where 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:15.960 you think the administration might might be headed right down. 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:19.560 I think the administration is firmly in that first bucket. 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:23.239 They're looking at ways to potentially intensify the air war, 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:27.400 to launch additional air and missile strikes against Iran, because 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:30.160 that's the playbook that the president has relied upon. But 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:33.920 at this juncture in the conflict, the president is starting 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:37.280 to feel pressure where he probably needs to do something different, 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:40.200 in part because some of those economic pressures that Chris 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.440 has mentioned. So if that's the case, there's you know, 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:46.920 the two additional options. One would be to try and 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:51.760 enforce the blockade even further, but really with that try 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:54.200 and make it so that the US can get more 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:57.880 ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which is becoming even 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.240 more of a choke point than it already was. That 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:02.599 means that the US military would need to shift to 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:06.320 a direct escort mission, which is something that is incredibly 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:11.320 resource intensive and may not necessarily be on the table 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:13.960 at this point in time. And then the last one 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:17.400 is a operation to open the street, and that requires 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.160 putting boots on the ground in Irani and soil. It 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:25.160 is high risk, it is resource intensive, and once that happens, 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:29.240 the escalation in this conflict is likely to go sky high. 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:32.080 And that's where the conversation that we've been having about 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:36.360 air defense interceptors is so important, because those troops would 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:40.360 need to be protected as best possible, as well as 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:44.920 other US forces and allies across the region. In addition 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.960 to that, the US could also potentially look at entering 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:51.400 the freight in the Red Sea that would further overstretch 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:55.640 US forces and assets, particularly some of those air defense 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:56.360 missiles too. 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.880 Chris, we also have another front that has really impact 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.240 the price of oil and that's the war in Ukraine 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:06.280 and the conflict in Russia, and how Ukrainian drones are 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:10.120 penetrating Russian defenses and getting to hit these manufacturing and 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.800 refining facilities. But now also you have reports potentially of 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:17.760 Ukraine going after an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:21.320 Everything is connected when you look at global economies, but 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:24.000 also when you look at politics and as the economic 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:26.800 state craft lead, those seem to puld in nicely together. 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.480 What is your take on how these two conflicts are 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.760 antagonizing each other and working together to kind of make it, 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:35.800 at a hard time for oil prices kind of even 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:37.160 more difficult. Where do you see this going? 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.360 Well, yeah, as you mentioned, the Iritims did not respond 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:45.720 well to Ukraine's targeting of this particular ship, which I 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:48.319 believe Ukraine said that it was involved in the transfer 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:52.760 of weapons between the two countries, Russia and Arad. I 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:55.840 do think what we're seeing is this pressure building on 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:59.400 the global energy system. So, just stepping back, the US 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:04.400 published weekly updates on energy inventories oil inventories. We're probably 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:08.679 going to see a sixteenth straight week of oil stocks 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.880 falling in the United States. We had a little bit 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:16.240 of respite from this MoU period, we saw commercial stockpiles 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:19.319 rise a little bit, but these releases from the Strategic 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:23.840 Petroleum Reserve have continued unabated, so we're estimating that those 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:28.160 releases will essentially run out by October. It's possible the 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:32.560 US could offer another release, but these these stocks are limited, 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.840 and so the additional pressure. You know, Russia has banned 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:39.080 the export of diesel because of these attacks. Russia historically 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:43.200 has provided about ten percent of the global exported diesel supply, 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.280 so that's a pretty significant hit. It hits the real 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:49.160 economy everywhere. You know. Another unknown is how long China 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:53.439 can continue to effectively pause many of its oil imports. 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:55.640 And we don't really know what's going on in China, 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.040 but they've certainly helped to act as a buffer for 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.000 the global energy system over the the past five months 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:05.920 by essentially dropping off forty percent of their imports from 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:08.199 the world. So, you know, there are all of these 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.800 different variables. Some are uncertain, many of them are outside 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.719 of the control of this president certainly, and they're going 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.320 to be adding pressure to his decision making. 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.000 Becas I'm listening to Chris, I'm still stuck on something. 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.240 You said, which is about the US kind of engaging 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:26.040 with the Houthis, And my mind wanders back to April 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:29.000 of twenty twenty five when we saw the US do that, 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:30.760 and there was that moment when I think a super 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:34.199 hornet fell off the USS Harry Truman into the ocean. 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.240 It was a difficult fight that they were waging there, 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.440 and I wonder sort of what that pretends about the 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.200 US kind of re engaging in that way. 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:42.400 How difficult would be for the. 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.240 US to fight the Houthis who've kind of reared their 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:46.200 heads here several months into this conflict. 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.640 That's a great question. Let's think about what happened last time. 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.199 You mentioned that there were aircraft that rolled off the 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:57.280 deck of a carrier and were lost at sea, but 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:01.080 there was also over one thousand US air strikes on 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:05.520 Yemen at that time, which eight into munition stockpiles. Additionally, 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.840 US air and naval forces shot down over four hundred 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:14.960 and eighty Hoothy drones and that left stockpiles pretty low 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:17.959 for some of the important air defense interceptors as well, 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.120 with US Navy officials saying that they cost in the 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:26.000 billions of dollars and that stockpiles were nearly depleted, and 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.679 that was just from some of these one off attacks 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:32.480 from the Houthis during that time period. Right now, if 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:34.760 the US were to enter the Fright, it would be 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.480 like that once again. But that also means that that's 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:41.719 occurring at the same time that the US is prosecuting 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:45.040 a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and using munitions 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:49.440 and equipment and readiness to conduct that, as well as 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.640 continuing its air campaign against Iran, which has been paused 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:56.000 for two nights but could pick up at any moment, 0:11:56.320 --> 0:12:00.800 which again is depleting critical readiness, using u US WURSS 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:04.160 and using up some of the most important munitions that 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:07.040 the US might need in a potential future conflict. 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.760 And Chris is not just complicating supplies of munitions and oil, 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.800 but other commodities as well. I see you retweeting from 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.439 of the show Steven Schasinski, who we had on yesterday 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.280 him talking about LNG. He said, a global fight for 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.160 LNG is brewing and Europe is losing. Europe strategy of 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:26.320 delaying LERG purchases until her those reopens is backfiring, threatening 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.760 efforts to refill storage for winter. What is going on 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:30.079 there and how critical. 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.720 Is this This is a really serious issue for Europe. 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.160 Of course, the US is in pretty good shape for 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.920 LNG and if we could export more, but we're really 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:41.839 capped out at how much we can export right now 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.760 and help to backfill for Europe and other economies. I 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:46.880 think the challenge right now is that Europe is competing 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.800 with Asian economies that are also trying to ensure that 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.600 they have sufficient supplies of LNG, which goes into everything 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:59.240 from power generation to petrochemical manufacturing. So Europe is in 0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:01.920 a position where they need to start, you know, resupplying 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.280 their stocks before the winter. They can't count on Russia 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.600 of course, and there's limited amounts of export from the US. 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:10.640 So you know, if this conflict doesn't resolve, if we 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.839 don't get these LNG uh, you know supplies coming out 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:15.680 of the golf again, that's gonna it's going to cause 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:19.000 some pain in Europe. And I'll also note that we 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.200 saw early in the war that are on targeted some 0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:25.439 of Qatar's LNG facilities, and these are very sensitive facilities 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:29.920 and if they are subject to significant you know kinetic attacks, uh, 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:34.800 that could cause you know, long periods of them being offline. 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:37.920 So that's I think one of the bigger risks for 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:38.600 the escalation. 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.480 At this point, there's been to a couple of seconds. 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.000 But before we go is it we can't export more 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.160 because we lack the trains or the facilities to convert 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:47.959 it into a movable quantity or is it shipping or 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:49.400 where is the where's the rub there? 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:54.720 It sees export facility, these lergy export terminals. So between 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.520 now in the next five years, we're expecting to be 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:58.599 able to double our export capacity. But right now the 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:00.800 US is drowning in l enge and we just can't 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:02.160 get it out fast enough. 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:04.840 That's really interesting to my favorite people, Bloomberg Economies. That's 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:06.880 Chris Kennedy. Becka Watser is joining us this morning. Becka 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.160 the defense lead at Bloomberg Economics, Chris the economic. 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:11.480 State craft lead. And whenever I'm in the DC Bureau 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:12.920 always fund to wander over to their. 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.120 Massively smart department. Thank you, guys, absolutely, thanks again. 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:22.040 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend right 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:36.760 after this. Russia famously known for its vodka and its 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.080 culture of extreme intoxication. But just as vodka is central 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.160 to the lives of many Russians and it is also 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:45.320 central to understanding Russian history and politics. 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:46.000 That's right. 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.160 In the book Vodka, Politics, Alcohol, Autocracy, and the Secret 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:52.520 History of the Russian State, author Mark Lawrence Strod explores 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.920 original documents and archival evidence to analyze how vodka is 0:14:55.960 --> 0:15:00.600 hardwired into the Russian political system. And markjoins us now 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.720 live on set. You are also an assistant professor of 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.680 political science at Villanova. We're so happy to have your 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:07.840 I stumbled across this book a couple of weeks ago. 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.800 It's absolutely fascinating, But you preface it by saying, this 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.880 is not about an ugly stereotype. This is not and 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.800 that's almost led to why people don't dive into how 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.640 much of an issue this has been for decades, from 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:24.120 Czars to Medvedev, people have tried to tackle this problem 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:25.960 and come up short, what's going on here? 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:26.480 Right? 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.760 And thank you for having me a fascinating topic and 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:32.240 obviously something that's observed a lot of my time since 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.280 I was a student back in Russia in the nineteen 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:38.200 nineties when the economy was in the tank, and you know, 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:42.080 and just living there for a long time, you're just like, Okay, well, 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.840 there's something about this stereotype, and we've all heard the stereotype. 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:47.680 But then you're sort of living in You're like, Okay, 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:50.760 there's a lot of alcohol going on right now, a 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.280 lot of vodka, and so I kind of wanted to 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:57.960 hammer at why, you know, rather than just sort of 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:02.320 avoiding the unpleasant this diving into it, you know, and 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.080 a lot of the times it's just prefaced as some 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:06.600 sort of cultural stereotype. 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:08.960 Oh, Russians just love it and they don't write. 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.320 I mean, it's not like they're just like sipping a 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.440 vodka and then going, oh, what a greater roment, No, 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:16.800 having a hard time choking down, just like anybody else. 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.800 But actually, I think it has to be more of 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:24.800 a legacy of political and economic decisions that are at 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:28.320 the heart of autocratic statecraft, kind of putting the interests, 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.760 the financial interests of the autocratic state ahead of the 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:35.120 well being of their own people for generations upon generations, 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:39.160 through the Czars, through the Soviets, and unfortunately straight on 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:40.000 through their present day. 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:42.800 Explain that a bit more so. I mean, the level of. 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:45.200 Consumption is huge, like fifteen to sixteen leaders per person 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.280 per year I think is what I read. So people 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:52.240 are consuming an incredible quantity of hard alcohol. You know, 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.120 in another country that might be seen as kind of 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.880 a public health issue or concern there, it's not. 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:01.600 It was so during a peeriod of time between you know, 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.240 Putin's first two terms and then there was that interregnant 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.840 where Dmitri Medvedev swap positions for four years. 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:08.679 Yeah. 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.160 Yeah, Well, one of his big initiatives was an anti 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.880 alcohol campaign, because he acknowledged that this is this is horrible. 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:19.359 This is decimating our society, it's decimating our ability to 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:23.959 field troops, it's decimating our tax base, and and all 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:26.600 those sorts of things. So they tried to clamp down 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:32.440 beginning about two thousand and nine on alcohol consumption, using 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:37.959 what I would say are fairly progressive policies informed by 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:43.120 public decision, by public health professionals around the globe, and 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:47.480 you know, very incremental approaches, very well thought out. Little 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:51.080 did he know, though, perhaps that on the other side, 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:56.280 was that his presidents of Vladimir Putin had actually been 0:17:56.840 --> 0:18:00.960 buying up and taking control of, personally a very large 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:03.760 percent of the Russian vodka market. And so a lot 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:07.320 of those public health initiatives ended up focusing in on 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:12.560 putting higher taxes, not on vodka, but on beer, which 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:17.200 is lower alcohol, probably better than passic loka. So it's 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.240 just completely upside down. So even the public health initiatives 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:24.360 were pushing more vodka on people, which is just bizarro land. 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:25.240 It's topsy turvy. 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.080 But that almost kind of fits with what you talk 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.640 about in the book, and that's throughout its history kind 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:31.399 of due to the way this was set up with 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:34.640 grain production and with the admin of the tavern, vodka 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:36.760 was used as a tool of the state. It was 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:39.120 a big financial boom. Can you explain how that works? 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.399 I mean so much so that Tolstoy was a teetotaler, 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.119 which I didn't know, and the Bolsheviks were vehemently anti 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:47.160 booze because it was such a weapon of the state. 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.360 Right, And this is something actually is not just it started, 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:52.840 you know, my interest started in Russia, but kind of 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:57.560 expanded out globally in subsequent research. But it's fascinating how 0:18:57.560 --> 0:19:03.879 many people throughout history, including American history, are noteworthy prohibitionists. 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:07.960 So Tolstoy Lenin in the United States, Frederick Douglass, I 0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:12.240 would say, Abraham Lincoln, you could say Thomas Jefferson was 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:17.040 America's first prohibitionist. So it's it's it's fascinating because ultimately 0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:20.600 that the key to understanding sort of that anti alcoholism uh. 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.840 And you definitely saw it in the the autocratic regimes 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:26.879 in Russia was that this is how the and it 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.720 didn't take like a rabid Marxist to point this out. 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:31.680 This is how the rich got richer and the poor 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:32.240 got poor. 0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:35.160 And so it was very easy. 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:35.159 Trade for it. 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:38.040 Right, you had to pay for vodkan hard currency, right. 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:39.200 You had to uh. 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:42.040 And it was it was strictly forbidden to make your 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:46.720 own outside. This was part of the czar's monopoly on 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.760 the tavern trade. And so the the tavern keepers were 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.800 known as selavalniki, which means the kissers. 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:56.320 They kissed across to vow that. 0:19:56.240 --> 0:20:00.080 They would not dilute, that they would not interrupt the 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.640 revenues of the state that we're going to the czar, 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:05.760 and so that they were sort of the main interference 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:09.240 points or point of interface i should say, between sort 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:12.520 of Russian society and the Russian government. And that's you know, 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:15.520 essentially how you paid money into this this whole system. 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:20.000 So you wrote this book before Russia's first incursion into Ukraine, 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:21.919 and some years have passed since then, and here we 0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:24.440 are in the middle of this war, and I'm curious 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:26.320 through the person through it you've you've written this books 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:28.960 of how you're looking at this current conflict and the 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.600 difficulty that we've seen reported that Russia has kind of 0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:34.280 fielding its army to continue to fight this war. 0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:36.240 Through this lens, what can we. 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:37.880 Glean or what can we learn just about the kind 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:41.040 of state of the conflict itself and the way that 0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:42.399 they're able to recruit people to fight. 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:45.679 In it, right, And it's been interesting to kind of 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:49.760 sort of watch it in through that particular lens. In 0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:52.360 the early years of the conflict, the Donbas War in particularly, 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:55.480 you had the Euromaidan Revolution in Kiev, and then you know, 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:58.760 obviously the annexation of Crimea and the sort of this 0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:00.320 low scale war in the. 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:01.359 Dawn Bass region. 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.040 It was a sort of a study in contrast because 0:21:04.119 --> 0:21:08.320 the Ukrainian side, which also has afflictions with alcohol and 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:13.120 sort of the vodkas, part of that that historical trajectory, 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:18.359