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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from

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Speaker 2: the show.

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Speaker 4: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics,

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Speaker 4: lifestyle and culture.

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Speaker 3: This morning, The New York Times supporting on concerns within

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Speaker 3: the White House about another escalation with Iron that would

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Speaker 3: put golf use US and golf allies at risk.

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Speaker 5: Excuse me, that's right.

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Speaker 2: The Times is reporting that President Trump could be holding

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Speaker 2: off on a larger strike in part due to a

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Speaker 2: low supply of anti missile defenses. Now, US Ambassador the

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Speaker 2: US when Mike Walls is on NBC right now or

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Speaker 2: will be soon. It looks like this was a pre

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Speaker 2: recorded interview pushing back against that report, saying the US

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Speaker 2: has all the equipment it needs, so to help us

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Speaker 2: break this down, We've got Beca Wasser, she's Bloomberg Economics

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Speaker 2: Defense lead, and Chris Kennedy he is the lead for

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Speaker 2: Economic statecraft. Butck, I want to start with you because

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Speaker 2: I know you've been covering the stockpile and its depletion

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Speaker 2: and where we are with these numbers. How real is

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Speaker 2: the concern over the defensive missile supply for the US.

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Speaker 2: It seems interesting if these reports are accurate, that the

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Speaker 2: US is now prescribing policy based on the integrity of

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Speaker 2: the supply.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I think we're at a really interesting inflection point where

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Speaker 6: right now, in the course of the conflict, there is

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Speaker 6: a huge strain on US air defense interceptors. That's not

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Speaker 6: to say that the US does not have any left,

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Speaker 6: but rather that there's a clear strain on the existing stockpiles,

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Speaker 6: which are running low after this extended conflict with Iran,

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Speaker 6: in part because of the sheer need not only from

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Speaker 6: the United States, which is trying to protect bases and

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Speaker 6: troops and some US allies in the region, but also

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Speaker 6: the allies themselves, who have depleted most of their air

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Speaker 6: defense stockpiles and have been asking the United States for more.

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Speaker 6: So at the end of the day, it's a pretty

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Speaker 6: stark place to be in, but it's not necessarily the

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Speaker 6: only thing that is dictating US military policy. We've seen

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Speaker 6: this song and danced before where President Trump has threatened

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Speaker 6: high escalation only to step back at the last moment

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Speaker 6: to leave some room for diplomacy. We've also seen President

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Speaker 6: Trump enter into faints in the past where he said

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Speaker 6: that there will be no strikes, only to go ahead

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Speaker 6: with that large operation. However, from my experience, if I'm

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Speaker 6: looking at things right now, the US does not have

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Speaker 6: sufficient defenses to weather the blowback that would likely come

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Speaker 6: from Iran if the US were to rapidly and extremely

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Speaker 6: ramp up this conflict.

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Speaker 3: You get Chris Kennedy here in just a minute of Becca,

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Speaker 3: one more question to you as I look at your

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Speaker 3: most recent piece for Bloomberg on all of this, you write,

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Speaker 3: the US lacks the munition's depth to bomb around in perpetuity.

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Speaker 3: The bigger risk is the US may run low of

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Speaker 3: the right kinds of missiles. Help me understand what we

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Speaker 3: know and what we don't know. My understanding is the

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Speaker 3: size and scale of these arsenals is classified.

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Speaker 5: We have some sense of what the US has.

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Speaker 3: How blind are we when it comes to kind of

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Speaker 3: assessing what the US has at its disposal, We're.

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Speaker 6: Pretty blind, but I think there are a few different

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Speaker 6: rules of them that we can always rely on. We've seen,

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Speaker 6: at least in the initial fighting during Operation Epic Fury,

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Speaker 6: US officials said that there were over thirteen thousand munitions

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Speaker 6: that were expended, and most of those were some of

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Speaker 6: these higher and long range missiles that are in demand

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Speaker 6: all over the globe. And so the US is likely

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Speaker 6: having wound down some of its stockpiles for those critical munitions,

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Speaker 6: which means that it is either likely going to need

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Speaker 6: to pull some of those missiles from other regions like

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Speaker 6: the Indo Pacific, which could leave a potential gap for

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Speaker 6: others to exploit, or try and find ways to bolster

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Speaker 6: the production of munitions, which the US is doing. But

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Speaker 6: that's a slow moving effort. We are talking months, if

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Speaker 6: not years, to try and just produce a few more

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Speaker 6: of some of those most advanced missiles and munitions.

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Speaker 2: Wow, Chris Kennedy, thank you for hanging in there. We

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Speaker 2: do want to ask you more about the economic impact

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Speaker 2: of all this. Because oil hit one hundred dollars a

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Speaker 2: barrel for the first time in weeks. We now have

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Speaker 2: concerns not only about what's going on in the Strait

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Speaker 2: as it seems to drag on, and just the cost

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Speaker 2: of doing business with this level of instability. But now

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Speaker 2: you have these threats from the hou this which is

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Speaker 2: compromising exports not only in the Red Sea but possibly

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Speaker 2: production within Saudi Arabia. You know they can and have

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Speaker 2: before hit refineries and facilities there. What is your take

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Speaker 2: on that second front and if we're going to see that,

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Speaker 2: if we have seen that start to pry in the markets.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so it's definitely a challenge. So the Red Sea

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Speaker 7: has now been the subject of several different attacks by

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Speaker 7: the huthis looking at I just looked at the recent

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Speaker 7: tanker traffic through the Red Sea and it is dropping

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Speaker 7: over the past few days. Of course, many ships might

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Speaker 7: be traveling without their transponders on, so it'll take a

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Speaker 7: few days to really see what the impact has been

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Speaker 7: on traffic. But we are getting anecdotal reports about ships

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Speaker 7: turning around having to traverse the Cape of Good Hope

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Speaker 7: at the southern tip of Africa, and that just adds

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Speaker 7: time to get oil to market. On top of the

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Speaker 7: Middle East conflict, we've also seen Ukraine ramp up its

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Speaker 7: attacks on Russian oil export infrastructure tankers, and so that's

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Speaker 7: another bit of pressure that's been growing in the background

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Speaker 7: as this conflict has continued.

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Speaker 3: Becka, you gained out sort of what the president his

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Speaker 3: team might be thinking about when it comes to the

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Speaker 3: future of this war, and you came up with three options.

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Speaker 3: The US could continue Bomberan, could intensify the blockade and

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Speaker 3: guidance of ships, or could launch an operation to forcibly

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Speaker 3: reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I wonder if you could

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Speaker 3: kind of put those in order of likelihood as you

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Speaker 3: see it, maybe order of difficulty as well, and where

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Speaker 3: you think the administration might might be headed right down.

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Speaker 6: I think the administration is firmly in that first bucket.

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Speaker 6: They're looking at ways to potentially intensify the air war,

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Speaker 6: to launch additional air and missile strikes against Iran, because

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Speaker 6: that's the playbook that the president has relied upon. But

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Speaker 6: at this juncture in the conflict, the president is starting

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Speaker 6: to feel pressure where he probably needs to do something different,

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Speaker 6: in part because some of those economic pressures that Chris

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Speaker 6: has mentioned. So if that's the case, there's you know,

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Speaker 6: the two additional options. One would be to try and

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Speaker 6: enforce the blockade even further, but really with that try

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Speaker 6: and make it so that the US can get more

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Speaker 6: ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which is becoming even

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Speaker 6: more of a choke point than it already was. That

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Speaker 6: means that the US military would need to shift to

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Speaker 6: a direct escort mission, which is something that is incredibly

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Speaker 6: resource intensive and may not necessarily be on the table

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Speaker 6: at this point in time. And then the last one

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Speaker 6: is a operation to open the street, and that requires

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Speaker 6: putting boots on the ground in Irani and soil. It

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Speaker 6: is high risk, it is resource intensive, and once that happens,

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Speaker 6: the escalation in this conflict is likely to go sky high.

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Speaker 6: And that's where the conversation that we've been having about

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Speaker 6: air defense interceptors is so important, because those troops would

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Speaker 6: need to be protected as best possible, as well as

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Speaker 6: other US forces and allies across the region. In addition

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Speaker 6: to that, the US could also potentially look at entering

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Speaker 6: the freight in the Red Sea that would further overstretch

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Speaker 6: US forces and assets, particularly some of those air defense

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Speaker 6: missiles too.

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Speaker 2: Chris, we also have another front that has really impact

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Speaker 2: the price of oil and that's the war in Ukraine

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Speaker 2: and the conflict in Russia, and how Ukrainian drones are

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Speaker 2: penetrating Russian defenses and getting to hit these manufacturing and

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Speaker 2: refining facilities. But now also you have reports potentially of

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Speaker 2: Ukraine going after an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

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Speaker 2: Everything is connected when you look at global economies, but

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Speaker 2: also when you look at politics and as the economic

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Speaker 2: state craft lead, those seem to puld in nicely together.

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Speaker 2: What is your take on how these two conflicts are

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Speaker 2: antagonizing each other and working together to kind of make it,

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Speaker 2: at a hard time for oil prices kind of even

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Speaker 2: more difficult. Where do you see this going?

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Speaker 7: Well, yeah, as you mentioned, the Iritims did not respond

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Speaker 7: well to Ukraine's targeting of this particular ship, which I

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Speaker 7: believe Ukraine said that it was involved in the transfer

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Speaker 7: of weapons between the two countries, Russia and Arad. I

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Speaker 7: do think what we're seeing is this pressure building on

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Speaker 7: the global energy system. So, just stepping back, the US

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Speaker 7: published weekly updates on energy inventories oil inventories. We're probably

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Speaker 7: going to see a sixteenth straight week of oil stocks

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Speaker 7: falling in the United States. We had a little bit

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Speaker 7: of respite from this MoU period, we saw commercial stockpiles

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Speaker 7: rise a little bit, but these releases from the Strategic

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Speaker 7: Petroleum Reserve have continued unabated, so we're estimating that those

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Speaker 7: releases will essentially run out by October. It's possible the

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Speaker 7: US could offer another release, but these these stocks are limited,

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Speaker 7: and so the additional pressure. You know, Russia has banned

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Speaker 7: the export of diesel because of these attacks. Russia historically

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Speaker 7: has provided about ten percent of the global exported diesel supply,

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Speaker 7: so that's a pretty significant hit. It hits the real

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Speaker 7: economy everywhere. You know. Another unknown is how long China

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Speaker 7: can continue to effectively pause many of its oil imports.

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Speaker 7: And we don't really know what's going on in China,

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Speaker 7: but they've certainly helped to act as a buffer for

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Speaker 7: the global energy system over the the past five months

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Speaker 7: by essentially dropping off forty percent of their imports from

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Speaker 7: the world. So, you know, there are all of these

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Speaker 7: different variables. Some are uncertain, many of them are outside

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Speaker 7: of the control of this president certainly, and they're going

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Speaker 7: to be adding pressure to his decision making.

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Speaker 3: Becas I'm listening to Chris, I'm still stuck on something.

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Speaker 3: You said, which is about the US kind of engaging

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Speaker 3: with the Houthis, And my mind wanders back to April

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Speaker 3: of twenty twenty five when we saw the US do that,

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Speaker 3: and there was that moment when I think a super

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Speaker 3: hornet fell off the USS Harry Truman into the ocean.

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Speaker 3: It was a difficult fight that they were waging there,

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Speaker 3: and I wonder sort of what that pretends about the

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Speaker 3: US kind of re engaging in that way.

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Speaker 5: How difficult would be for the.

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Speaker 3: US to fight the Houthis who've kind of reared their

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Speaker 3: heads here several months into this conflict.

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Speaker 6: That's a great question. Let's think about what happened last time.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned that there were aircraft that rolled off the

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Speaker 6: deck of a carrier and were lost at sea, but

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Speaker 6: there was also over one thousand US air strikes on

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Speaker 6: Yemen at that time, which eight into munition stockpiles. Additionally,

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Speaker 6: US air and naval forces shot down over four hundred

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Speaker 6: and eighty Hoothy drones and that left stockpiles pretty low

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Speaker 6: for some of the important air defense interceptors as well,

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Speaker 6: with US Navy officials saying that they cost in the

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Speaker 6: billions of dollars and that stockpiles were nearly depleted, and

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Speaker 6: that was just from some of these one off attacks

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Speaker 6: from the Houthis during that time period. Right now, if

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Speaker 6: the US were to enter the Fright, it would be

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Speaker 6: like that once again. But that also means that that's

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Speaker 6: occurring at the same time that the US is prosecuting

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Speaker 6: a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and using munitions

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Speaker 6: and equipment and readiness to conduct that, as well as

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Speaker 6: continuing its air campaign against Iran, which has been paused

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Speaker 6: for two nights but could pick up at any moment,

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Speaker 6: which again is depleting critical readiness, using u US WURSS

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Speaker 6: and using up some of the most important munitions that

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Speaker 6: the US might need in a potential future conflict.

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Speaker 2: And Chris is not just complicating supplies of munitions and oil,

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Speaker 2: but other commodities as well. I see you retweeting from

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Speaker 2: of the show Steven Schasinski, who we had on yesterday

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Speaker 2: him talking about LNG. He said, a global fight for

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Speaker 2: LNG is brewing and Europe is losing. Europe strategy of

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Speaker 2: delaying LERG purchases until her those reopens is backfiring, threatening

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Speaker 2: efforts to refill storage for winter. What is going on

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Speaker 2: there and how critical.

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Speaker 7: Is this This is a really serious issue for Europe.

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Speaker 7: Of course, the US is in pretty good shape for

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Speaker 7: LNG and if we could export more, but we're really

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Speaker 7: capped out at how much we can export right now

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Speaker 7: and help to backfill for Europe and other economies. I

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Speaker 7: think the challenge right now is that Europe is competing

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Speaker 7: with Asian economies that are also trying to ensure that

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Speaker 7: they have sufficient supplies of LNG, which goes into everything

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Speaker 7: from power generation to petrochemical manufacturing. So Europe is in

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Speaker 7: a position where they need to start, you know, resupplying

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Speaker 7: their stocks before the winter. They can't count on Russia

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Speaker 7: of course, and there's limited amounts of export from the US.

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Speaker 7: So you know, if this conflict doesn't resolve, if we

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Speaker 7: don't get these LNG uh, you know supplies coming out

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Speaker 7: of the golf again, that's gonna it's going to cause

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Speaker 7: some pain in Europe. And I'll also note that we

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Speaker 7: saw early in the war that are on targeted some

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Speaker 7: of Qatar's LNG facilities, and these are very sensitive facilities

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Speaker 7: and if they are subject to significant you know kinetic attacks, uh,

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Speaker 7: that could cause you know, long periods of them being offline.

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Speaker 7: So that's I think one of the bigger risks for

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Speaker 7: the escalation.

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Speaker 5: At this point, there's been to a couple of seconds.

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Speaker 2: But before we go is it we can't export more

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Speaker 2: because we lack the trains or the facilities to convert

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Speaker 2: it into a movable quantity or is it shipping or

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Speaker 2: where is the where's the rub there?

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Speaker 7: It sees export facility, these lergy export terminals. So between

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Speaker 7: now in the next five years, we're expecting to be

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Speaker 7: able to double our export capacity. But right now the

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Speaker 7: US is drowning in l enge and we just can't

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Speaker 7: get it out fast enough.

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Speaker 5: That's really interesting to my favorite people, Bloomberg Economies. That's

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Speaker 5: Chris Kennedy. Becka Watser is joining us this morning. Becka

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Speaker 5: the defense lead at Bloomberg Economics, Chris the economic.

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Speaker 3: State craft lead. And whenever I'm in the DC Bureau

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Speaker 3: always fund to wander over to their.

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Speaker 5: Massively smart department. Thank you, guys, absolutely, thanks again.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend right

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Speaker 3: after this. Russia famously known for its vodka and its

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Speaker 3: culture of extreme intoxication. But just as vodka is central

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Speaker 3: to the lives of many Russians and it is also

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Speaker 3: central to understanding Russian history and politics.

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Speaker 5: That's right.

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Speaker 2: In the book Vodka, Politics, Alcohol, Autocracy, and the Secret

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Speaker 2: History of the Russian State, author Mark Lawrence Strod explores

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Speaker 2: original documents and archival evidence to analyze how vodka is

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Speaker 2: hardwired into the Russian political system. And markjoins us now

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Speaker 2: live on set. You are also an assistant professor of

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Speaker 2: political science at Villanova. We're so happy to have your

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Speaker 2: I stumbled across this book a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: It's absolutely fascinating, But you preface it by saying, this

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Speaker 2: is not about an ugly stereotype. This is not and

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Speaker 2: that's almost led to why people don't dive into how

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Speaker 2: much of an issue this has been for decades, from

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Speaker 2: Czars to Medvedev, people have tried to tackle this problem

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Speaker 2: and come up short, what's going on here?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 8: And thank you for having me a fascinating topic and

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Speaker 8: obviously something that's observed a lot of my time since

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Speaker 8: I was a student back in Russia in the nineteen

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Speaker 8: nineties when the economy was in the tank, and you know,

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Speaker 8: and just living there for a long time, you're just like, Okay, well,

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Speaker 8: there's something about this stereotype, and we've all heard the stereotype.

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Speaker 8: But then you're sort of living in You're like, Okay,

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Speaker 8: there's a lot of alcohol going on right now, a

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Speaker 8: lot of vodka, and so I kind of wanted to

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Speaker 8: hammer at why, you know, rather than just sort of

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Speaker 8: avoiding the unpleasant this diving into it, you know, and

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Speaker 8: a lot of the times it's just prefaced as some

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Speaker 8: sort of cultural stereotype.

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Speaker 9: Oh, Russians just love it and they don't write.

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Speaker 8: I mean, it's not like they're just like sipping a

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Speaker 8: vodka and then going, oh, what a greater roment, No,

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Speaker 8: having a hard time choking down, just like anybody else.

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Speaker 8: But actually, I think it has to be more of

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Speaker 8: a legacy of political and economic decisions that are at

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Speaker 8: the heart of autocratic statecraft, kind of putting the interests,

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Speaker 8: the financial interests of the autocratic state ahead of the

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Speaker 8: well being of their own people for generations upon generations,

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Speaker 8: through the Czars, through the Soviets, and unfortunately straight on

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Speaker 8: through their present day.

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Speaker 5: Explain that a bit more so. I mean, the level of.

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Speaker 3: Consumption is huge, like fifteen to sixteen leaders per person

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Speaker 3: per year I think is what I read. So people

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Speaker 3: are consuming an incredible quantity of hard alcohol. You know,

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Speaker 3: in another country that might be seen as kind of

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Speaker 3: a public health issue or concern there, it's not.

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Speaker 8: It was so during a peeriod of time between you know,

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Speaker 8: Putin's first two terms and then there was that interregnant

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Speaker 8: where Dmitri Medvedev swap positions for four years.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Well, one of his big initiatives was an anti

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Speaker 8: alcohol campaign, because he acknowledged that this is this is horrible.

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Speaker 8: This is decimating our society, it's decimating our ability to

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Speaker 8: field troops, it's decimating our tax base, and and all

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Speaker 8: those sorts of things. So they tried to clamp down

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Speaker 8: beginning about two thousand and nine on alcohol consumption, using

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Speaker 8: what I would say are fairly progressive policies informed by

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Speaker 8: public decision, by public health professionals around the globe, and

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Speaker 8: you know, very incremental approaches, very well thought out. Little

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Speaker 8: did he know, though, perhaps that on the other side,

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Speaker 8: was that his presidents of Vladimir Putin had actually been

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Speaker 8: buying up and taking control of, personally a very large

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Speaker 8: percent of the Russian vodka market. And so a lot

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Speaker 8: of those public health initiatives ended up focusing in on

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Speaker 8: putting higher taxes, not on vodka, but on beer, which

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Speaker 8: is lower alcohol, probably better than passic loka. So it's

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Speaker 8: just completely upside down. So even the public health initiatives

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Speaker 8: were pushing more vodka on people, which is just bizarro land.

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Speaker 8: It's topsy turvy.

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Speaker 2: But that almost kind of fits with what you talk

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Speaker 2: about in the book, and that's throughout its history kind

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Speaker 2: of due to the way this was set up with

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Speaker 2: grain production and with the admin of the tavern, vodka

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Speaker 2: was used as a tool of the state. It was

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Speaker 2: a big financial boom. Can you explain how that works?

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Speaker 2: I mean so much so that Tolstoy was a teetotaler,

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Speaker 2: which I didn't know, and the Bolsheviks were vehemently anti

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Speaker 2: booze because it was such a weapon of the state.

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Speaker 8: Right, And this is something actually is not just it started,

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Speaker 8: you know, my interest started in Russia, but kind of

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Speaker 8: expanded out globally in subsequent research. But it's fascinating how

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Speaker 8: many people throughout history, including American history, are noteworthy prohibitionists.

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Speaker 8: So Tolstoy Lenin in the United States, Frederick Douglass, I

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Speaker 8: would say, Abraham Lincoln, you could say Thomas Jefferson was

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Speaker 8: America's first prohibitionist. So it's it's it's fascinating because ultimately

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Speaker 8: that the key to understanding sort of that anti alcoholism uh.

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Speaker 8: And you definitely saw it in the the autocratic regimes

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Speaker 8: in Russia was that this is how the and it

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Speaker 8: didn't take like a rabid Marxist to point this out.

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Speaker 8: This is how the rich got richer and the poor

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Speaker 8: got poor.

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Speaker 9: And so it was very easy.

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Speaker 3: Trade for it.

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Speaker 2: Right, you had to pay for vodkan hard currency, right.

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Speaker 5: You had to uh.

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Speaker 8: And it was it was strictly forbidden to make your

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Speaker 8: own outside. This was part of the czar's monopoly on

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Speaker 8: the tavern trade. And so the the tavern keepers were

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Speaker 8: known as selavalniki, which means the kissers.

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Speaker 9: They kissed across to vow that.

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Speaker 8: They would not dilute, that they would not interrupt the

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Speaker 8: revenues of the state that we're going to the czar,

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Speaker 8: and so that they were sort of the main interference

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Speaker 8: points or point of interface i should say, between sort

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Speaker 8: of Russian society and the Russian government. And that's you know,

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Speaker 8: essentially how you paid money into this this whole system.

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Speaker 3: So you wrote this book before Russia's first incursion into Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: and some years have passed since then, and here we

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Speaker 3: are in the middle of this war, and I'm curious

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Speaker 3: through the person through it you've you've written this books

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Speaker 3: of how you're looking at this current conflict and the

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Speaker 3: difficulty that we've seen reported that Russia has kind of

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Speaker 3: fielding its army to continue to fight this war.

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Speaker 5: Through this lens, what can we.

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Speaker 3: Glean or what can we learn just about the kind

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Speaker 3: of state of the conflict itself and the way that

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Speaker 3: they're able to recruit people to fight.

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Speaker 8: In it, right, And it's been interesting to kind of

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Speaker 8: sort of watch it in through that particular lens. In

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Speaker 8: the early years of the conflict, the Donbas War in particularly,

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Speaker 8: you had the Euromaidan Revolution in Kiev, and then you know,

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Speaker 8: obviously the annexation of Crimea and the sort of this

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Speaker 8: low scale war in the.

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Speaker 9: Dawn Bass region.

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Speaker 8: It was a sort of a study in contrast because

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Speaker 8: the Ukrainian side, which also has afflictions with alcohol and

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Speaker 8: sort of the vodkas, part of that that historical trajectory,

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Speaker 8: but also has a lot more sort of European cultural influences,

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Speaker 8: historical influences from the Austro Hungarian Empire in the areas around.

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Speaker 5: Levive and so on.

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Speaker 8: Uh, the protests that were going on there were very orderly.

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Speaker 8: In fact, they had, you know, the areas that were

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Speaker 8: self policing in terms of making sure that we have sobriety,

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Speaker 8: we don't want anything going wrong here. By contrast, uh,

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Speaker 8: the the sort of inauguration of these rebels republics in

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Speaker 8: the dawn Bass region, by these pro Russian separatists were

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Speaker 8: just drunk, drunken bacchanal's, uh, you know, and and you

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Speaker 8: had you know, reporters on the on the scene reporting

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Speaker 8: how everybody's drunk, everybody's falling apart on these these sorts

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Speaker 8: of things, and so yeah, it was it was kind

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Speaker 8: of an interesting contrast. It's like, all right, we've got

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Speaker 8: it very very clearly here that these are not the

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Speaker 8: same protests and they're bringing different sort of historical baggage

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Speaker 8: in those cases.

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Speaker 5: But at some.

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Speaker 2: Point, I mean, it impacts the functioning of the state,

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Speaker 2: because when you look at a military it's got impact readiness.

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Speaker 2: And when you talk about historically even the function of

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Speaker 2: the Soviet state, you write about these insane dinner parties

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Speaker 2: that Stalin used to have in which he used to

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Speaker 2: insist his ministers who had work to do, would stay

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Speaker 2: very late in the night. They would fake drunkenness early

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Speaker 2: so they could try to go home and salvage the

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Speaker 2: rest of their day. Talk about the work of this

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Speaker 2: as almost a state craft and an internal monitoring system,

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Speaker 2: because what was the goal getting people drunk enough that

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Speaker 2: they would spill their secrets or they would tell them

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Speaker 2: if they were a spy.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, there was certainly an element to that.

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Speaker 2: And I remember they even don't do this to me,

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Speaker 2: I'm not telling you my sor.

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Speaker 10: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: I don't know.

437
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 8: Yeah, No, like the opening scenes of the movie A

438
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 8: Death of Stalin was the book. Yeah, when I saw

439
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 8: that movie, I was like, did they read like those

440
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 8: chapters of this book because it was but literally talk

441
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 8: about it in the book. It was it was like

442
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 8: a you know, like a frat party with the devil.

443
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 8: I mean, he's forcing everybody to drink with the intention

444
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 8: of maybe divulging some secrets if they were secretly plotting

445
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 8: to overthrow you know, sort of loose lips, sync ships

446
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 8: kind of things. So so yeah, so there was kind

447
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 8: of this idea of keeping one's potential opponents off bait,

448
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 8: whether that's Orf off base a little bit, whether that's

449
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 8: in the Kremlin.

450
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 9: But also if you want to project that out in

451
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 9: terms of sort.

452
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 8: Of state society relations, there's something to be said about,

453
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 8: you know, keeping the people sort of drunken and off

454
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 8: base and unable to sort of mount a challenge to

455
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 8: your own authority in that way. So so it works

456
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 8: a little bit both ways.

457
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 3: In the last few minutes we have here, let me

458
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 3: just take a event of you being a scholar of

459
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 3: Russian politics, and just to ask you how you're thinking

460
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 3: about reviewing Vladimir Putin at this moment in time. I

461
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,199
Speaker 3: think there are a lot of folks who see him

462
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 3: as maybe getting closer to having his back up against

463
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: the wall, and I'm curious, looking at that kind of

464
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 3: in the complement of history, how you're thinking about him

465
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: in this moment.

466
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's you know, it's where I can't claim to

467
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 8: have a direct line of Vladimir Putin, and I'm very

468
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 8: suspicious of anybody who does claim to have that. But

469
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 8: one of the things I constantly notice, especially in sort

470
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 8: of Western media coverage, is this notion of I'm calling

471
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 8: it it's like a village literature on sort of.

472
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 9: The beginning of the end of Putin.

473
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 5: Interesting, and I wrote a.

474
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 8: Piece I think for Foreign Policy a number of years ago,

475
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 8: kind of tracing these and I was finding beginning of

476
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 8: the end of Putin, you know, stories going back to

477
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 8: the course disaster in two thousand and two, so you know.

478
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 9: You can go all the way back. Oh, covid, this

479
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 9: is the begat parts of my.

480
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 2: Death have been greatly exact.

481
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 4: Second.

482
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, but I think my position was always like, well,

483
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 8: it's a betting person, you know, you can always say, well,

484
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 8: this is the beginning of the end, this is the

485
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 8: beginning of the end. Well, every time you're going to

486
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 8: be wrong, except for once. So it's better to be

487
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 8: and take the opposite approach and say this is probably

488
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 8: not the end of Putin, and that way you can

489
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 8: only be wrong once, which is the one way to

490
00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 8: to to look at it.

491
00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 5: There.

492
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 2: But as you look at the drivers that have femant

493
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: to change in the past, what finally gets it to

494
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: that breaking point? There's so little opposition left in that country.

495
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: Even if Putin falls, what replaces him? And could that

496
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: be worse?

497
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 5: Right?

498
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 8: And that's that's the key I think to a lot

499
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 8: of This is that I think we take, especially in

500
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 8: the West, we kind of project our notions of popular sovereignty.

501
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 8: The sovereignty lies with the people, and then we have

502
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 8: to keep the people play cadd at least, you know,

503
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 8: some degree of public approval, maybe not you know, expressed

504
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 8: through you know, direct democratic initiatives or whatnot. But there's

505
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 8: still is a sense that, well, you know, if we

506
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 8: can't push the Russian people too far or else they're

507
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 8: going to rebel. I think we've passed that point where

508
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 8: we're the sovereignty is linked to the will of the

509
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 8: Russian people. So nowadays you're seeing these lines of cars,

510
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 8: you know, lining up queuing up for gas, and now

511
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 8: the attacks on other ones, and everybody's just saying, well,

512
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 8: where's the Russian people's breaking point. I don't think the

513
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 8: Russian people are going to break anytime soon.

514
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: All Right, We're gonna have to leave it there. Thank

515
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 2: you so much. The book is Vodka Politics, Mark Lauren Shad,

516
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for driving in.

517
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 5: We appreciate.

518
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 3: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right

519
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 3: after this, For the first time on record, the city

520
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 3: of Miami the metropolitan area more expensive than greater in

521
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 3: New York City.

522
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 5: I'm going to repeat that again, Miami more.

523
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 2: Expensive than for our radio listeners. My face is not

524
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:32,959
Speaker 2: by stupefied.

525
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: With South Florida's consumer price index jumping thirty six percent

526
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: since the year twenty nineteen, and according to the US

527
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Miami's cost of living has surpassed

528
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 3: New York's, with private school tuition, insurance costs, and restaurant

529
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 3: spending higher than they were one year ago.

530
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: All right, for more on how Miami allegedly got so pricey,

531
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 2: We're joined once again by our resident.

532
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 5: Miami in Miami in that's the right dominum.

533
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,120
Speaker 2: You can correct me if I'm wrong, Senior Commoditie stratus,

534
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 2: Mike McLoone. Mike, you used to live in New York, Right,

535
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 2: you're meeting these people who defected to Florida. What is

536
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 2: your take on all this?

537
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 10: Well, the bottom line is, from the top down. In

538
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 10: New York, if you get one hundred thousand dollars bonus,

539
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 10: the state of New York and the city New York

540
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 10: off the top take sixteen percent. In Miami it's zero.

541
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 10: That's an unstoppable force. So everything else is kind of

542
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 10: catching up to that.

543
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 2: Okay, but there's other I'm sorry ahead, no, no, you

544
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: go ahead, and you say, there's other costs associated with

545
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 2: living with Florida, like our reporter found, you got to

546
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: think about things like property insurance. And also you have

547
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 2: to have cars, and you have to have multiple cars

548
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 2: because you can't get away get around anywhere else. And

549
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 2: if you're trying to be cool, you're probably spending a

550
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 2: lot on the cars. Aren't there all these other little

551
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 2: expenses that add up.

552
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 10: Well, I think you nail it there. If you're trying

553
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 10: to be cool, it's expensive. But if you're like me,

554
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 10: you just try to go under the radar and you

555
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 10: commute on a bike to the office. That's nine miles

556
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 10: on bike pass. It's ideal. You don't have to pay tolls,

557
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 10: you don't have to worry about traffic, and you get

558
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 10: to look at all those people city in traffic say yeah,

559
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 10: it flexed to be you. I'm good and I'm not

560
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 10: in traffic. But the key thing is bottom line though

561
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 10: it's also it's the weather for six months of the

562
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 10: year is nice. But one thing I think is really

563
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 10: happening mi me is and I noticed it's really catching

564
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 10: up Obviously there's the traffic. But one thing I also

565
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 10: I've heard from a real estate standpoint, looks like we

566
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 10: somewhat peeked hair starting head lower and I had lucky

567
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 10: enough Bloomberg let me come here in twenty twenty one.

568
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 5: The thing is we're expanding.

569
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 10: But the bottom line, also from our standpoint is this,

570
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 10: we're a lot of sales. We're getting more and more

571
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 10: sales there, and the reason is things like ken Griffin

572
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 10: County is because the tax treatment's better.

573
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 3: I look here at the cost of insurance a huge

574
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: consideration as well, because of hurricanes there and in this

575
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 3: piece the highest home insurance premiums in the nation an

576
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 3: average of eight thousand, two or ninety two dollars last year.

577
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 3: That's according to in Surify estimates. Mike, I know you're

578
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 3: very familiar with Coral Gables in South Miami and Pine Crest,

579
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 3: all the hi high tone neighborhoods in Miami.

580
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 5: Bikes bikes around around. You probably do.

581
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: But your observation just about how much property prices of

582
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: skyrocket here. I saw it out and an analogy in

583
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 3: the piece here that you if you're buying one of

584
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,239
Speaker 3: those houses on a square foot basis now it is

585
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: kind of comparable to what you might pay here on

586
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 3: the Upper East Side in Manhattan.

587
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 10: The quote I heard from a prominent real estate person

588
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 10: I heard his quote was if I could short Florida

589
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 10: real estate, I would. I think it's very peakish. The

590
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 10: one thing you also noticed, the construction cranes are everywhere.

591
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 10: I noticed that I travel a lot lately to Chicago

592
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 10: and Philadelphia, and there's no construction trains. But to hear

593
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 10: there everywhere, that's usually a classic sign. But pink, so

594
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 10: I think we're there. It's near very.

595
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 5: Peak type activity. But also key things.

596
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 10: Remember, Miami and Florida kind of leads the country. If

597
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 10: it starts heading lower, it's a high beta. The rest

598
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 10: of the country heads downward. But for now, it's also summer.

599
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 10: It's not the time to be here. Come to when

600
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 10: the weather gets bad, and like it did last winter

601
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 10: in New York, people flock down.

602
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 5: The snowbirds will flock down. Christina.

603
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm kind of arguing against myself here as

604
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 2: I look at some of these numbers, because I having

605
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: just moved to New York from DC, which I thought

606
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: was a fairly expensive city. I grew up in Colorado.

607
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 2: The price of things here has just really caught me

608
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: off guard.

609
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: But when you look at what.

610
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 2: Miami is now charging, I mean, the CPI in Miami

611
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: has jumped thirty six percent since twenty nineteen. When you

612
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: look at home falls, this article says, until recently, if

613
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: you moved like Mike did from New York to Florida,

614
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: you could expect this huge windfall from selling whatever your

615
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: property here was and investing it down there. But that's

616
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 2: getting harder and harder to do because you're getting premiums

617
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 2: on these.

618
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 5: Florida Florida real estate.

619
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 2: The one thing I will say, though, is you get

620
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 2: more square footage show in Miami for the price. And

621
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: if you are trying to afford New York, even if

622
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 2: you own your place, you are still paying these astronomical

623
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,719
Speaker 2: condo fees. I mean, I know somebody who owns their

624
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 2: place outright, but their condo maintenance fee is like five

625
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: k a month, which is insane to me. Is that

626
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: still the case in Miami? You still are not dealing

627
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 2: with homeowner fees while the homeowner fees. Yes, But I

628
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 2: mean what Mike form words, I'm clearly up warming them,

629
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 2: But like, what's your take on that, is it still

630
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 2: better to get an apartment in Miami it's cheaper or

631
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 2: it's not.

632
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 5: I like the year round factor.

633
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 10: I can I can live by a beach and commute

634
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 10: nine miles and year round, I don't have to wear

635
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 10: like boots and the hat and gloves all the time.

636
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 5: But one thing that.

637
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 10: Happened right away handed on it is I did get

638
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 10: hit with assessment. And first we moved in partly because

639
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 10: of what happened to surfside. Fully expected that. But now

640
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 10: it's like, where do we go from here? And I

641
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 10: think one thing has the thing is we've leveled out

642
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 10: and the bottom line is where's the migration most that's

643
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 10: happening in this country. It's not just New York. I'm

644
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 10: you know, actually originally from Chicago. It's a migration employee

645
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 10: from high tax states towards lower tax states. To me,

646
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 10: that's an unstoppable force. It looks like Miami's someone's probably

647
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 10: peaked for a while at such high levels.

648
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 3: Mich Let's talk about food in this piece on the terminal,

649
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 3: there's a great line it's either carbone or a cubano,

650
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 3: that there's not much when the way of kind of

651
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: mid grade options here. When it comes to food, so's

652
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: you've kind of navigated your new city.

653
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 5: Do you find that to be true?

654
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 3: Has the kind of have all the ancillary things kept

655
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 3: up with the building of residential towers and commercial towers?

656
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 5: I think so.

657
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 10: I have never had a problem getting good food at

658
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 10: a decent price. So everything's gone up, but I guess

659
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 10: some kind of lower ends. I don't wait in line

660
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 10: at restaurants typically if I have to make a reservation.

661
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 10: My wife does that. But no, I'm good with that.

662
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 10: I haven't fought a major difference, and it's just the

663
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 10: the it's I don't find that much if it's also

664
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 10: depends on your level, like if you're not trying to

665
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 10: be cool, which I'm not.

666
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 5: I find no problem with the food.

667
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 2: I just I love that you ride a bike. I

668
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 2: would not have had that on my on my pegword

669
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 2: for you. I'm wondering. It is a fun story, but

670
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 2: I'm wondering what this rise and gentrification is almost the

671
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 2: wrong word, but you know these high rises and this

672
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 2: higher standard.

673
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 5: Of living in Miamia.

674
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: Growth, Yeah, urban growth, it has done for We're talking

675
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: on a very high end here. I'm wondering if this

676
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 2: is putting the squeeze even more on medium income and

677
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 2: lower income families and communities that make Miami kind of

678
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: what it is.

679
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 10: It certainly is one thing that's fuirly clueing Miami that

680
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 10: I actually love is I am a gringo in many

681
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 10: parts of Miami. I mean language, the first language is Spanish.

682
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 10: Now you go to Fort Lauderdale, the first language is English.

683
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 9: But I do enjoy that.

684
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 10: I enjoy the multicultural environment. But it's getting much harder

685
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 10: for your average person if they don't own a place.

686
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 10: If they own a home that's from twenty years ago.

687
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 10: Those homes have gone up a lot. But if you're

688
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 10: just renting, yeah, they're starting to fall behind. It's getting

689
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 10: more and more difficult.

690
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg This Weekend. Right

691
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 4: after this, Welcome back to.

692
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: Bloomberg This Weekend or BT dugs. I'm Christina Raffini with

693
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 2: David Gerra and Lisa Matteo is here to run you

694
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: through some of the stories you might have missed this week. Lisa,

695
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 2: what'd you got for?

696
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 5: All right?

697
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 4: So what age did you guys start putting into retirement?

698
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,120
Speaker 5: I was not more. I thought that person was Oh

699
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 5: my goodness, let's keep it light.

700
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: Okay, Sunday, drink my coffee, David, you want to do

701
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 2: you want to take this one.

702
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 4: Like thirty twenty twenties. Okay, when I start.

703
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 2: When I got my first full time job at my

704
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 2: old network, one of the old guys said, you will

705
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 2: max out that four oh one k contribute contribution and

706
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 2: he was right, and so I've done.

707
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 5: It twenty excellent.

708
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 4: Well, this is the topic of our latest Bloomberg article.

709
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 4: It's called gen Z's retirement max or Yes two axes, Yes,

710
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 4: choosing savings over doom spending. So a lot more gen

711
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 4: z Ers they're they're putting away half their income and

712
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 4: they're living cheaply and half there is half their income

713
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 4: to telling you, and you know what New York I

714
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 4: will say, they're starting at nineteen. Wow, this is what ages.

715
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: Somebody of them are living at home.

716
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 4: It's because a lot of things. They think Social Security

717
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 4: is going to run out. They think that AI is

718
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 4: going to take over a lot of their jobs. So

719
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 4: they want to be financially secure. So maybe they don't

720
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 4: have to take a job. They don't want to stick

721
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 4: with it just because they need the money, So they

722
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 4: want to have the money started and banked away now,

723
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 4: So it's something that they're doing, maxing.

724
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 5: Maxing it is it is. I'm getting tired. If that

725
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 5: was all out here, Yeah, wow, that's so this must

726
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 5: be a change. This hasn't been happening for long. It has.

727
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 4: It's part of a movement. Okay, it's called fire, which

728
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 4: stands where financial independence, retire early.

729
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 5: Some adherence to the really really well, but it's not

730
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 5: even I.

731
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 3: Think it's like they really want to retire extremely early

732
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 3: in their forties forties.

733
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 5: Really, yeah, what are you going to do?

734
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 3: Whatever in the world's your oyster? If you've saved like

735
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 3: what like eighty percent or.

736
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 5: Something like that, it's it's tough. It's tough.

737
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 4: But the only thing they're doing wrong, which experts are saying,

738
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 4: is that they're focusing so much on the saving, is

739
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 4: that they're not paying their debt, their credit cards, oh,

740
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 4: on the living.

741
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 5: They're focusing on the saving.

742
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 2: But that's the other thing is like you're only young once,

743
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 2: Like I do think you shouldn't spend recklessly, but there

744
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 2: are some times where you should just buy that ticket

745
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 2: and go, Like life is short and it is hard

746
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 2: to plan, especially in the world we're in today, so

747
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: you just never know.

748
00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 5: All right, balance is okay? All right?

749
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 4: As a kid, did you get allowance? Yes, yes, all right,

750
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: we're always fighting with mom and dad for this allowance.

751
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 5: Okay, because no.

752
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 3: It was a set amount.

753
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 5: I got it, and.

754
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 9: You get what you get.

755
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 5: You don't get up one k. See this one is

756
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 5: from New York magazine. Okay, this is for New York.

757
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 4: When it's barely enough money for boba. New York City

758
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,240
Speaker 4: parents and teens tussle over how much allowance is enough?

759
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 5: Okay, so definitely not enough. It's not enough.

760
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 4: For boba, and kids are having to, you know, struggle,

761
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 4: they're struggling. They can't get their boba because they're getting

762
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:34,959
Speaker 4: five dollars a week.

763
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 3: We're seeing video here of Mimi's, which you'd brought up

764
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: in a previous set, which is like thir.

765
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 4: Very expensive frozen yogurt. But they're getting five but the

766
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 4: bucks a week. Some kids are though, getting like two

767
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 4: hundred dollars a week. So it's putting a lot of

768
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 4: stress on the kids. Parents are experts are.

769
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 5: Saying stress on the kids a week. Well, think about it.

770
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 4: You know you're going out and you're going for your boba,

771
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 4: and then you have a kid next to you who

772
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 4: gets two hundred bucks a week and you're sitting there

773
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 4: with your Measley five. So it's pretty the kids the life.

774
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 5: I mean, the parents have to fork over the money.

775
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 5: Just saying it's a big fight in our house talking

776
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 5: about boba.

777
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 4: I think my daughter gets about fifteen a week, but.

778
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 2: She's eighteen fifteen dollars getting.

779
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 5: All right, I do like boba, but I don't like

780
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 5: it for it.

781
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 4: Yes, Okay, company retreats, right, if some companies do that,

782
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 4: You go on the picnics, you going whatever? Would you

783
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 4: like a beachy dumb You have to do one because

784
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 4: it's a hot new thing. Okay, this one is in

785
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 4: the Wall Street Journal. Don't kill corporate retreats. Make them

786
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 4: more like a kid's birthday party. So instead of doing these.

787
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 2: Things you know, nightmare.

788
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 4: Okay, you don't like the natsapp rates or the egg

789
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 4: things all those. Yes, it's three days and Cape pod. Okay,

790
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 4: you're roasting marshmallows, you're potato sack racing, you're building human pyramids. Okay,

791
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 4: you're doing all the fun things like kids do and

792
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 4: cross falls exactly doing things right now?

793
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 5: Kids, do you how do you think that will end

794
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 5: for you, David Garra.

795
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 4: Well, so they're saying, forget the lunches, forget the dinners

796
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 4: with the cocktails. People get out of hand and people

797
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 4: don't know how to behave Do something like this and

798
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 4: then you know you can have a good time and

799
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 4: you can bond with your co workers.

800
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 5: I say, we do adult summer camp. I mean, let's

801
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 5: talk about ault summer camp. Like, I'm happy to go

802
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 5: and do some potato sack races, potato.

803
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 4: Sack golf and ski trips or sometimes they try to

804
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 4: do those, but they're not good because some people are

805
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 4: not good at golf.

806
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,799
Speaker 2: I would be I'm not going to but I'm really

807
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 2: good at after skiing, I'm really good at like but yeah, I'm.

808
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 10: The prodo good at it.

809
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 5: All right.

810
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 4: Big movie Weekend. Okay, so movie theaters is from the

811
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 4: New York Times. They're embracing the lucrative business of buckets.

812
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 4: We're talking about the popcorn buckets, okay, and they're they're

813
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 4: there'se big things. Sometimes they're designed for major movies. It

814
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:56,720
Speaker 4: can sell as much as seventy dollars. Okay, sure, there's

815
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 4: a couple behind you have the replica of I'm extra

816
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 4: of Director's iMX camera for fifty buses.

817
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,399
Speaker 5: Are not just a cardboard No, these are like okay tech.

818
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 4: This is a twenty two inch rendering of the Trojan

819
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 4: Horse for seventy dollars, filled to the brim with popcorn,

820
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,280
Speaker 4: epic and they're collecting people collect.

821
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 5: Them, so it's it's a cooling. They're so greasy, they're

822
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 5: very faked.

823
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 2: Butter, some soap and a sponge.

824
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 5: What do you do with it after that dishwashing? I

825
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 5: don't know.

826
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 4: But there's a few companies, actually three that make these

827
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 4: different buckets, so it's a little bit of competition there,

828
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 4: but they're making good money. I'm telling you I would

829
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 4: not fork over the seventy dollars.

830
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 5: I guess maybe the popcorn is not the point.

831
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 2: You guys went to a movie.

832
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 4: I'm going this week?

833
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 5: Are you? Finally? I'm not getting the.

834
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 4: The Trojan Horse.

835
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 5: I'm not doing it. Put it on the company card.

836
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 5: I'd like to see that.

837
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 2: I'd like to see if someone were too sneak into

838
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 2: your house using a Trojan Horse style object, what would

839
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 2: what would trick you?

840
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 5: I guess maybe popcorn bucket?

841
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: At least I feel I give you some sort of

842
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 2: like expensive workout equipment, David.

843
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 5: Maybe somebody's in the treadmill hiding away.

844
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: He's a really large, nine handmade tie youse.

845
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 3: Leave you with that amazing image, all those amazing images.

846
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend Podcast.

847
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every

848
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.

849
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 3: We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App,

850
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 3: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics,

851
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 3: lifestyle and culture.