Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's get over to
Speaker 1: back to the markets and get over to Wells Fargo Security.
Speaker 1: The head of equity Strategy joins us Chris Harvard to
Speaker 1: talk about what's going on in these markets, and Chris,
Speaker 1: I guess you know your job has been made a
Speaker 1: lot more difficult the last few days because this geopolitical
Speaker 1: risk has to be harder to forecast than anything that
Speaker 1: Fed's ever done. Yeah. I think that's right. The geopolitical
Speaker 1: is very hard to forecast. We're very headline driven and
Speaker 1: it's just hard to parse out. But but I think
Speaker 1: getting back to the FED longer term, it's really about
Speaker 1: the FED, and we can talk about that as much
Speaker 1: sure as loot as you want, but until we get
Speaker 1: that some sort of resolution on Ukraine Russia, it's going
Speaker 1: to continue to cause volatility. But again, I think the
Speaker 1: bigger picture, which I really want to focus on longer term,
Speaker 1: is the FED and what the FED is going to do.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go there, Chris. If you look at
Speaker 1: the w I r P function on the Bloomer terminal,
Speaker 1: we're uh, it's new and improved. It is new and improved.
Speaker 1: Love it pretty cool? Um? Talking about seven rate increases
Speaker 1: in two that seems kind of wacky to me to
Speaker 1: to use the cf A term. What do you think
Speaker 1: that's your scientific term? I see, um yea. When I
Speaker 1: find what I find a little wacky is that they're
Speaker 1: still buying bonds. They've let seven heights come into the market,
Speaker 1: We're still buying bonds. I think when we look back
Speaker 1: over time, we're gonna we're gonna realize, we're gonna scratch
Speaker 1: our heads. Why did we continue to do this? Why
Speaker 1: did we Why did the Fed taper so long? And
Speaker 1: tapering did cause some of the inflation that we're seeing. Um,
Speaker 1: bigger picture in the Fed open the door. The FED
Speaker 1: really allowed themselves a lot of optionality the last meeting,
Speaker 1: and I think they have to reduce that optionality because
Speaker 1: people are having a hard time planning. They don't know
Speaker 1: if it's it's twenty five or fifty. Uh, they don't
Speaker 1: know if it's going to be twenty five at a clip.
Speaker 1: They really don't know what's going to happen when the
Speaker 1: balance sheet. And I think the Fed has to reduce
Speaker 1: their optionality. They have to give people a little bit
Speaker 1: more clarity on the path that they're they're going to take.
Speaker 1: And for us, we're we're really focused on that March
Speaker 1: meeting because I don't think the die is cast just yet.
Speaker 1: If they get very aggressive the second half that economically
Speaker 1: will be a lot tougher. If they're much more moderate,
Speaker 1: I think we can have a decent year and I
Speaker 1: think the economy will hold up just just five. But
Speaker 1: you do think we're going to see a cut, right?
Speaker 1: You mean just don't know if it's I mean hike.
Speaker 1: You just don't know if it's gonna be twenty five
Speaker 1: basis points or fifty. That's right, that's right. So the
Speaker 1: markets telling it's twenty five. That seems about right. Um.
Speaker 1: The Fed hasn't been real clear about things, but they
Speaker 1: it would be surprising to me that they if they
Speaker 1: go fifty. Um, But again, anything is on the table.
Speaker 1: They really need to provide a little bit more clarity.
Speaker 1: And that's what's happening, is a market is just uncertain
Speaker 1: about what they're doing, and the speed of their turnaround
Speaker 1: is often surprised people. So until we get that March meeting,
Speaker 1: it's just going to be a lot of all, a
Speaker 1: lot of uncertainty and a lot of guessing by market participants. Chris,
Speaker 1: we're pretty much through this earning season, Um, what are
Speaker 1: some of your takeaways here? Did it leave any maybe
Speaker 1: valuation risk you might have felt in this market? Yeah,
Speaker 1: forecasts have been slashed for earning growth exactly. So one
Speaker 1: of the things that I think is happening under the scene,
Speaker 1: we talk a lot about the supply chain. Supply chain
Speaker 1: is kind of get gotten swept away from the headlines
Speaker 1: with Ukraine and Russia. But one of the positives that
Speaker 1: I've seen is the average company is having a difficult
Speaker 1: time with the supply chain. But if you look at
Speaker 1: some of the larger companies, UM, Apple, p and even
Speaker 1: Walmart yesterday indicated this. They seem to indicate that they
Speaker 1: could use their heft and their might to wrestle the
Speaker 1: supply chain, and they did indicate that it seems for
Speaker 1: them the supply chain are the worst of the supply
Speaker 1: chain is over which I think is a good harbinger
Speaker 1: for other companies. The other thing I would say about
Speaker 1: earning season is we've been talking about higher prices and
Speaker 1: higher prices, and I've never seen this kind of pricing
Speaker 1: in the summertime. I was telling class, we've never seen
Speaker 1: this kind of pricing environment might twenty career. Now. What
Speaker 1: we're seeing on pricing is pricing is still going higher,
Speaker 1: but at the decelerating rate. And one of the things
Speaker 1: we've been talking about, does the consumers start to bok
Speaker 1: at some of these higher prices? Is the consumer is
Speaker 1: demand a little bit more elastic now than it was
Speaker 1: last year, since pent up demand has been satisfied, and
Speaker 1: it looks like we're beginning to see that, and I
Speaker 1: think that's that's potentially a plus when it comes to inflation. Hey, Chris,
Speaker 1: you guys are walls Fargo You over huts and yards, right,
Speaker 1: We're that's that's we have a number of offices, but
Speaker 1: one of them is hutsing yards. That's where trading Florida. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's what's it like over there? I mean,
Speaker 1: are people, as I know, they opened this hut they
Speaker 1: open huts and yards. It's this amazing office complex and
Speaker 1: all the far west side of Manhattan, but High Line
Speaker 1: over there exactly. But it seemed to open just before
Speaker 1: the pandemic dill are put in. Yep, that's very cool.
Speaker 1: What's it like over there? Because are there people there
Speaker 1: or is it a ghost town? Um? There are people there.
Speaker 1: And what I would say, so I live in New
Speaker 1: York or I live in the city, And what I
Speaker 1: would say is weather. On Saturday, the weather was nice
Speaker 1: and people were out and about and and it looked
Speaker 1: like a normal day and spring day. Whether it gets colder,
Speaker 1: people come back inside. I think the demand is there.
Speaker 1: I think people want to get out. I think they're
Speaker 1: willing to get out. And I think in the springtime
Speaker 1: things are going to look a lot more normal. I
Speaker 1: think people are a lot more comfortable. I also have
Speaker 1: a child that goes to school in the city, and
Speaker 1: I talked a lot of different parents and they're they're
Speaker 1: comfortable and they're ready to go. Yeah, I think I
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think the city is going to
Speaker 1: explode in the next month or so. Blossom blossoms are
Speaker 1: much better. Just doesn't explode. Yeah, it's just gonna be
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of pent up there. Chris Harvey,
Speaker 1: head of equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities. Let's tuck
Speaker 1: global energy. It's not too much of a stretch. They're
Speaker 1: about to go from autos two global energy. But we
Speaker 1: bring an Aerngy guill Day kpmg u S Energy sector leader, Angy.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at oil here. You know, we're in and
Speaker 1: around ninety dollars a barrel. It feels like it's pretty
Speaker 1: comfortable up here. How do you think about global oil
Speaker 1: going forward, given maybe some of these political tensions we're
Speaker 1: seeing right now. Well, thanks Paul and Matt for having me.
Speaker 1: You know, geo political tensions and oil prices go hand
Speaker 1: in hand. Um, we've seen that for years. I think
Speaker 1: the real question and the challenge that we're seeing now
Speaker 1: is the under supply in the market. You know, inventories
Speaker 1: are the lowest level since two thousand three, and so
Speaker 1: that's a real challenge for us. And there's several reasons
Speaker 1: for that, but that's that's the thing we've got to overcome. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and what's interesting to me, we've been talking about this
Speaker 1: for a few days now and people have been coming
Speaker 1: on saying, you know what, there's not the spare capacity
Speaker 1: out there that you think there is. UM. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, we saw oil prices come down pretty drastically
Speaker 1: yesterday and this morning. Now they're bouncing back to some extent.
Speaker 1: But is the idea that Iran is getting further with
Speaker 1: nuclear talks and maybe the market thought and that capacity
Speaker 1: could come into the market. Well, that's that's an interesting
Speaker 1: question because opeq Uh plus their production quotas have not
Speaker 1: been with the target output levels that they've they've committed to,
Speaker 1: and so if you ask yourself, why is that. I
Speaker 1: think OPEC is looking by nature, it's a cautious group,
Speaker 1: so they're looking long term out in the next seven
Speaker 1: eight quarters before they they really unload their production. So
Speaker 1: I think i RAN definitely definitely played a role in
Speaker 1: that UM. You know, if a deal is reached, that
Speaker 1: could be anywhere from five hundred thousand, seven hundred thousand
Speaker 1: barols per day coming back on the market, maybe some
Speaker 1: even say as much as a as a million barrels
Speaker 1: put per day over the course of the year. So
Speaker 1: that's definitely something I think OPEK is is watching. Andy,
Speaker 1: are you surprised that we haven't seen more production come
Speaker 1: on from your good friends down in Texas and Oklahoma,
Speaker 1: the oil patch, the shale folks. Well, not really, because
Speaker 1: the investor sentiment has changed. You know, oil and gas
Speaker 1: companies have been directed by the capital markets and the
Speaker 1: investment community not to grow production. They have rewarded them
Speaker 1: on returning cash to shareholders, and so that's what they've
Speaker 1: focused on. They've really focused on getting their costs down,
Speaker 1: you know, operating with discipline and returning cash to shareholders.
Speaker 1: So it's not unexpected to me that they aren't, you know,
Speaker 1: returning to uh, very active drink. We have senior counts increase,
Speaker 1: but they're being very directed and by their shareholders that
Speaker 1: they needed to return cash discipline. Surprised me, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Are Gilday, thanks so much for joining US national sector
Speaker 1: leader Energy, Natural Resources and Chemicals at KPMG. A proud
Speaker 1: graduate of Texas A and M. Right now springing, David
Speaker 1: Dietz's a Managing Principal and senior portfolio manager strategists at
Speaker 1: p PAC Gladstone Bank. David, we got geopolitical risk, we've
Speaker 1: got rising interest rates, we've got slowing economy. We even
Speaker 1: have some earnings acceleration kind of slowing down in terms
Speaker 1: of the earnings growth there. How are you thinking about
Speaker 1: this market, David, Well, certainly, it's a lot of things
Speaker 1: to worry about. It's a very ste ball of worry
Speaker 1: to add to those items. Of course, you've got a
Speaker 1: federal Reserve which is by by all accounts, is poised
Speaker 1: to raise interest rates come March. We don't know where
Speaker 1: there's twenty five or fifty. And of course we've also
Speaker 1: got this UH options exploration Day which is enhancing the volatility.
Speaker 1: So um, you know, it's we've had three great years.
Speaker 1: This year has started uh kind of poorly here, SMP
Speaker 1: fire down eight percent, the Barclays Aggregate, the high quality
Speaker 1: bonded next down four percent. So investors really wondering where
Speaker 1: to go with their money here. But you know, the
Speaker 1: flip side is a lot of the worries that we're
Speaker 1: gonna be talking about today and are pretty well, I think,
Speaker 1: Chris Ston, you know, we'll have to see. Certainly, let's
Speaker 1: look at the Ukraine Russian situation. Historically, these geopolitical events
Speaker 1: are short term problems for the markets. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna affect anyone's plans to go
Speaker 1: out for dinner this weekend. I don't think anyone's good
Speaker 1: defer a car purchase because of what's going on now.
Speaker 1: The bad news is, I think it could, depending on
Speaker 1: how things work out, raise energy prices. But guess what,
Speaker 1: Unlike the nineteen seventies, were energy independent here, so we
Speaker 1: have a lot more control. So I wouldn't let be that,
Speaker 1: let that be the reason why you dumped your portfolio. Obviously,
Speaker 1: what the FED does with interest rates and the risk
Speaker 1: of a policy error is probably issue number one for investors. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: in the bat The other bad news is, even if
Speaker 1: you want to purchase the car, where you're gonna find it,
Speaker 1: nobody's got anything on lots right, And if you do,
Speaker 1: see like a used vehicle, late model along the lines
Speaker 1: of what you're looking for, is gonna cost ten thousand
Speaker 1: dollars more than the new M S r P. So
Speaker 1: this kind of scarcity, this kind of inflation, it's starting
Speaker 1: to eat into corporate earnings. Does that worry you? Everything
Speaker 1: worries me, But you know, so the inflation problem is,
Speaker 1: you know, really our most important problem, because ultimately that's
Speaker 1: the only reason the FED is gonna hike rates. They
Speaker 1: don't just have higher interest rates that they don't have
Speaker 1: a problem to solve. Um. The reasons for optimism there
Speaker 1: is where our car availability going to be a year
Speaker 1: for now, and I would submit that a lot of
Speaker 1: the inflation is due to pandemic supply disruptions. So you've
Speaker 1: got like seventy five ships off the port of Los
Speaker 1: Angeles where we're gonna be a year from now, I
Speaker 1: would submit and hope there's gonna be less depending on where.
Speaker 1: There's another area. You've got about five million people who
Speaker 1: don't want to return to work. A lot of those
Speaker 1: people are concerned about illness and so forth. So I
Speaker 1: think there's reasons to believe that inflation could relax a
Speaker 1: little bit. Otherwise, there's no question about there's other types
Speaker 1: of inflation. If it gets into the you know, wages
Speaker 1: and so forth, that it may be more difficult. But
Speaker 1: to the extent that inflation abates a little bit, defed
Speaker 1: maybe less aggressive, and that could allow for stocks to
Speaker 1: have a rebound here. All right, David, thanks so much.
Speaker 1: We always appreciate getting your perspective on these markets. Here
Speaker 1: the benefit of your experience, David Deed's managing principle and
Speaker 1: senior portfolio strategist at Pepack Gladstone Bank. Where is that paste?
Speaker 1: It's in New Jersey, baby, kind of western New Jersey
Speaker 1: and horse country out west of you. Yes, and but
Speaker 1: there's an office in Summit, because there's everything's in Summit.
Speaker 1: It's like the blooming financial metropolis of north central New Jersey.
Speaker 1: Day I'll get the invite. Yes, someday you get to invite,
Speaker 1: we'll get you out there. Canuebra get chat on the
Speaker 1: golf course. And Mr Dietz is remember there as well.
Speaker 1: Uh so looking at these markets here again, kind of
Speaker 1: rolling over a little bit, not gonna oversell at the
Speaker 1: SMP off about four tenths of one per cent geopolitical
Speaker 1: issues at the four. One of the things that I
Speaker 1: do in Jamaica, believe it or not, and uh it's embarrassing,
Speaker 1: is I play video games one there. Sometimes I just
Speaker 1: bring my consoles with me and play everywhere. And I
Speaker 1: want to bring Grant Johnson right now is the CEO
Speaker 1: of E Sports Entertainment Group. The ticker is pretty sweet
Speaker 1: g nb L Gamble it's an online gambling platform. I
Speaker 1: don't get exactly, um what you're doing, but I was
Speaker 1: thinking about it reading through it, Grant, I love to
Speaker 1: play you know, Halo or Call of Duty or a
Speaker 1: Fortnite or uh Player Unknown battle Ground with a group
Speaker 1: of friends, and the only thing will make it better
Speaker 1: is if I could bet with them at the same time.
Speaker 1: It would be sweet if I could take out like
Speaker 1: my brother or my cousin. And also they owe me
Speaker 1: ten bucks for every head shot. Is this along the
Speaker 1: right lines. You're talking the right language, man. And by
Speaker 1: the way, playing video games has nothing to be embarrassed about.
Speaker 1: A virgens them prefer video gaming to traditional sports. So
Speaker 1: but I'm practically a boomer, that's the problem. I am
Speaker 1: definitely a boomer, and I still play about two hours
Speaker 1: a day. So it's it's it's actually the biggest growing
Speaker 1: sector of entertainment in the world. I mean, the video
Speaker 1: game industry is bigger than the movie and music industries combined.
Speaker 1: So that gives you some sense of comfort that you're
Speaker 1: in good company. What what what is E sports? Grant? Sure,
Speaker 1: E sports is competitive video game play. Now. E sports
Speaker 1: is a subsection of the larger gaming industry, and it
Speaker 1: is organized events where professional, paid teams participate against each
Speaker 1: other for cash. Prizes. You've heard a lot of these names,
Speaker 1: you know, Phase Clan and Cloud nine, Team Liquid, et cetera.
Speaker 1: These teams compete for multimillion dollar prizes all around the
Speaker 1: world all year, and that's the sports business. I have
Speaker 1: a gaming analogy that will probably help bring it home
Speaker 1: for the listeners because we have to separate software platforms.
Speaker 1: At one is and I compared to golf. When people
Speaker 1: watch golf, they bet on the masters, and that's professional
Speaker 1: watching the professionals play and you're betting on them. That's
Speaker 1: our VI g G platform. That's the platform we just
Speaker 1: law in New Jersey, where the first and only, by
Speaker 1: the way, licensed esports gambling site in North America. Our
Speaker 1: other platform is Land Dual, and this looks like it's
Speaker 1: the product you're looking for, Matt. This platform allows you
Speaker 1: to compete against others in planes. So if I take
Speaker 1: this back to golf, people bet on the masters, but
Speaker 1: far more people beat against each other when they're playing
Speaker 1: closest to the whole, best drive, best ball, you know
Speaker 1: who's gonna win the match. That's Land Dual. So we're
Speaker 1: actually having the inaugural event. We're launching this software in
Speaker 1: partnership with the hard Rock this March, also in New Jersey.
Speaker 1: Obviously New Jersey is a card here for us. Uh,
Speaker 1: we're launching with Madden, where three fifty competitors are coming
Speaker 1: to compete against each other on one on one model
Speaker 1: model skill play for purse each individual game. So if
Speaker 1: you're you and I are playing Madden, you win, and
Speaker 1: we both bet five bucks, ten bucks a hunter bucks,
Speaker 1: you win the purse. The house takes aig. Think of
Speaker 1: it as equivalent of poker for video gaming. So why Jersey?
Speaker 1: I mean we we were looking through your resume and
Speaker 1: guessing that you're Canadian. I have lived in the States.
Speaker 1: I I lived in New York, Pelham, New York for
Speaker 1: three years. But yes, I I hell them. I love Pelham.
Speaker 1: I want I wanted to move to Pelham, but there's
Speaker 1: no inventory this um But but it is Jersey because
Speaker 1: Atlantic City or um or is there another reason? Well,
Speaker 1: Jersey is one of the most, if not the most
Speaker 1: progressive states. I mean, if you recall back in with
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court overturned the ruling allowing online sports book wagering,
Speaker 1: which started a bit of a gold rush. You know,
Speaker 1: from then until now, we had two states which were
Speaker 1: Nevada and New Jersey that we're allowing. This is now
Speaker 1: I think two states and counting and uh and that
Speaker 1: was spearheaded by New Jersey. So they're very innovative. The
Speaker 1: Gaming Commission there is very innovative. The governor has gone
Speaker 1: on record stating that they want to be in the
Speaker 1: front of the vanguard of this huge gaming industry and
Speaker 1: the sports which is why you know we made our application.
Speaker 1: There are auditors and our attorneys are also in New Jersey,
Speaker 1: so that that helps. We have office in Hoboken, and
Speaker 1: it's it's close to New York, so it has a
Speaker 1: lot of things going for it and and less but
Speaker 1: certainly not least. You already pointed out Atlantic City, and
Speaker 1: that's specifically why we're launching land Duel. I told you
Speaker 1: that New Jersey. It's where's that, buddy. I'm telling you
Speaker 1: we we we got it all. It's a great state
Speaker 1: of New Jersey. Grant Johnson, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Fascinating story here. Grant Johnson, he's the CEO and the
Speaker 1: company is called the Sports Entertainment Group. It's a public
Speaker 1: traded company trades on the Nasdaq g m b L.
Speaker 1: It's an online gaming platform, some pretty cool stuff again,
Speaker 1: doing some good stuff in New Jersey. Thanks for listening
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Speaker 1: to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen
Speaker 1: seventy three. Pet On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us
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