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Speaker 1: Then let us get you over to Singapore where the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg New Economy Forum is taking place. Juliette Sally is

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Speaker 1: there with the chief executive ability of Trade Shift Jewels,

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Speaker 1: indeed Risk. Yes, I have Christian language me here on

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Speaker 1: the set here in Singapore, day two of Bloomberg New

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Speaker 1: Economy Forum and Christian is really interesting that yesterday there

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Speaker 1: was kind of I guess you could say, almost a

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Speaker 1: little bit of your foorier that we had seen President's

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Speaker 1: Biden and she meet and today we wake up to

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Speaker 1: that devastating news in Europe. How much does this complicate

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Speaker 1: and and squeeze the global supply chain? Now? Yes, so

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Speaker 1: we work with the global companies all over the world

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Speaker 1: and run their supply chains. And I think this is

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Speaker 1: not going to be a new thing. It's it's more

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Speaker 1: going to be an extensional amplification of of an already

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Speaker 1: happening scenario. And and the factors are the same, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's talking about agricultural and grain, we're looking

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Speaker 1: energy cost. It's hard to see that any new sing

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Speaker 1: since frinstance on Russia would would you know, mean a

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Speaker 1: whole lot. But the question here really is what's going

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Speaker 1: to NATO's response. I think the first few messages is

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Speaker 1: very little and you're probably reading the te leaves seems

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Speaker 1: pretty um restrained, I think in the language. But um,

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's the core thing right now. It

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Speaker 1: seems like Russia essentially only either hasn't interest in escalating

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Speaker 1: here and nature don't have a big, big interest in escalating.

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Speaker 1: So um, yeah, we gotta watch. We certainly do. And

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Speaker 1: it is going to exacerbate the European energy crisis, the

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Speaker 1: food crisis as well. Tell us, I guess some of

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Speaker 1: the point pressures that you're seeing at trade shift. So

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Speaker 1: I think one of the biggest things we've been seeing,

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Speaker 1: I mean the whole year and the strain is just ongoing,

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Speaker 1: is a lot of supply teams were siding not meant

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Speaker 1: for worldward rolling shocks. Right. This is very very stable,

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Speaker 1: in many ways, very fragile systems that are very dependent

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Speaker 1: on a working world. Um. And I think people have

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Speaker 1: been trying to pivot, but pivoting supply teams for real

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Speaker 1: takes five ten years. It's it's not something you down months. Um.

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Speaker 1: So there's a big there's a big rush to find

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Speaker 1: new supplies, find new supply, find new sourceers. We talked

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Speaker 1: about near showing all of these things, and I think

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Speaker 1: that the other factor here is the whole talk about resilience.

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Speaker 1: I think in many ways resiliences is probably a bigger

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Speaker 1: challenge than people think. Supplies has been asked to double

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Speaker 1: the inventory to have more capacity, they're being asked to

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Speaker 1: pay for that inventory. They're being paid slower because commanist

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Speaker 1: is concerning cash. And then on top of that we

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Speaker 1: have a triple aammy of increasing interest rates. Right, so

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Speaker 1: resilience is actually putting a lot of extra strain on

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Speaker 1: the system that's already strained. Um, So I think we've

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Speaker 1: got to come up with different solutions. We're gonna go

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Speaker 1: different ways because that's not long term sustainable. Is one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest solutions moving to digitalization to it and

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Speaker 1: what are the threats there of I guess cyber attacks, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean we do see cyber attacks. I mean that's

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Speaker 1: obviously always a factor, either if it's on the company's

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Speaker 1: direct or their supply chains. I think secure systems is

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Speaker 1: don't a way forward. I mean, you can never perfect anything,

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Speaker 1: but but I think we can do a lot to

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Speaker 1: keep the bad guys out. As to the digital supply chains.

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Speaker 1: I think it's really the only way we can get

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Speaker 1: to UM much more nimble and more agile supply chains.

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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think that the answer is said before.

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Speaker 1: We resident it's not doubling capacity in the system, but

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Speaker 1: you know, just having way way too much redundancy. It

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Speaker 1: is really just to have much more nimble and agile

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Speaker 1: supply chains. But we can move quickly. We're looking as well.

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Speaker 1: I mean you touch there on inflation about when we

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Speaker 1: are going to start to see a peak there? Where

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Speaker 1: do you see that? And how concerned are you about

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Speaker 1: global recessionary fears? I mean, I think at this point

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Speaker 1: we are quite a bit more concerned about recession than

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Speaker 1: their inflation. UM. We are seeing build up of inventory

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Speaker 1: everywhere in the system. We see orders that happened last

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Speaker 1: year that's finally getting delivered, building up in inventory. We

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Speaker 1: see transported logistics prices way down, capacity way down, so

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Speaker 1: I a capacity way up. So I think the numbers

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Speaker 1: we see and I think another big fear we have is,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's rather unprecedented that supply chain shocks has

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Speaker 1: led to inflation. We don't have a lot of data

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Speaker 1: on what it means, and I'm very nervous that the

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Speaker 1: central bank cure right now is probably not the right

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Speaker 1: solution for for what they're experiencing, because raising interest rates

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Speaker 1: will do very little friendly your cost, It will do

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Speaker 1: very little for you know, capacity in the system. In fact,

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Speaker 1: it's going to do the opposite. It's going to strain

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Speaker 1: the suppliers even more. They're trying, as we know, to

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Speaker 1: to really try and manage this, but are they kind

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Speaker 1: of I guess maybe heading us towards more pressures than

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Speaker 1: in your point by continuing on this tightening side. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I mean obviously we saw the news also on

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Speaker 1: on the slowdown a little bit on inflacing, which is

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Speaker 1: good news. But I think at this point what's probably

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Speaker 1: much more invisible is the strain on the whole supply system,

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Speaker 1: the stain on the supplier base. We've seen average payment

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Speaker 1: go up from like thirty five days to almost forty

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Speaker 1: eight days across the world. I mean on average, that's

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Speaker 1: a lot um so, so I think that's a big

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Speaker 1: fund answer strain that's being eaten up right now and

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Speaker 1: invisible that will become much more visible if we continue

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Speaker 1: to increase in interest There's obviously a lot of effectors

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Speaker 1: here too. We talked about the europe energy crisis. I

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Speaker 1: know from reading some of your notes that you've given

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Speaker 1: us that you're seeing a bit of a brighter spot

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Speaker 1: in the US. Two. What about what we're seeing in

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Speaker 1: China and the hopes that we will see a full reopening.

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Speaker 1: What pressures are you seeing across China. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is the first thing I think to be aware of,

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Speaker 1: and everybody talking about the pivot away from China, and

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Speaker 1: it will take decades for the rest to getting even

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Speaker 1: close to replicating the Chinese manufacturing capacity anywhere in the world.

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Speaker 1: And if we even can, I think I think that's

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Speaker 1: the first thing. So there's a big co dependency here, right.

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Speaker 1: That's probably also why we saw the inching closer or

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Speaker 1: smiling at the twenty. It was not a woman brace,

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Speaker 1: but it was an inching close, all right. I think

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Speaker 1: the other thing is whereas Ukraine, whereas COVID, all of

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Speaker 1: these energy crisis they're long term heart problems. To solve this,

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Speaker 1: this Covicier policy in China, that's a policy decision, and

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Speaker 1: I mean, cheek, he could wake up tomorrow issue two

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Speaker 1: degrees in China would bul right, So I think I'm

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Speaker 1: a little bit more optimistic about that moving in the

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Speaker 1: right direction, probably early mid next year. And I think

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Speaker 1: again that's a policy decision. We can't just make a

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Speaker 1: policy decision to make energy crisis go away. What sort

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Speaker 1: of pressures are you seeing on the labor front? So,

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Speaker 1: I mean that there's labor again, back to the whole

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Speaker 1: invasion point, right, I mean we're seeing labor shorlters pretty

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Speaker 1: mu everywhere in the world. Um. We're dealing with probably

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Speaker 1: also you know, demographics here in a lot of countries, right, UM.

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Speaker 1: And and again I think that's putting pressure on services.

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Speaker 1: It's putting pressure certainly also on manufacturing UM. And of

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Speaker 1: course in markets your space and tech, we've had a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a different way, right. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: been some layoffs and and so on. So I think

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Speaker 1: maybe pressure is coming off a little bit on on

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Speaker 1: on that side of the world. But I mean everywhere

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Speaker 1: else we're still seeing the pressure. Are you slowing hiring?

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Speaker 1: Are you looking at getting rid of jobs? We have

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Speaker 1: already slow hiring so and I think, just like everybody else,

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Speaker 1: we're not looking to get rid of any jobs at

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Speaker 1: this point. Are you looking at further expansion yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean we've been next, we've been expanding for twelve years

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Speaker 1: and I mean, you know again we've grown on network

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Speaker 1: with every year, so so we've just got to follow that.

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Speaker 1: We're going to support our customers and you know, there's

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Speaker 1: still again probably actually more activity and supplied to in

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Speaker 1: today than many years. All right, Well, we do hope

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Speaker 1: as well that we are going to see some kind

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Speaker 1: of potential easing to the situation in your ban of course,

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Speaker 1: and easing on the supply chain. Precious, we thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for your time. Trade Shift CEO and co

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Speaker 1: founded Christian Lange with me here on the radio, assentially

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Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore,