Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Canada's Liberal Party won
Speaker 1: a fourth consecutive term, electing Mark Carney as Prime Minister.
Speaker 1: It was a narrow victory. Carney's Liberals don't have an
Speaker 1: outright majority.
Speaker 2: It's a stunning comeback for the Liberal Party because they
Speaker 2: until recently looked like they were going to get totally
Speaker 2: wiped out in this election.
Speaker 1: That's Brian Platt, who covers the Canadian government for Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: and notably Pierre Pouliev, the leader of the Conservative Party
Speaker 1: who ran against Carney, whose style of politics has drawn
Speaker 1: comparisons to US President Donald Trump's lost his seat.
Speaker 2: There's no doubt what shape this election, primarily, which is
Speaker 2: Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Carney's campaign, by necessity, focused on how he would respond
Speaker 1: to Trump's tariffs. Now all eyes are on him to
Speaker 1: see how he'll negotiate our old relationship with the United States,
Speaker 1: a relationship based on steadily increasing integration is over. I'm
Speaker 1: David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News Today. On the show, I sit down with Brian
Speaker 1: Platt in Ottawa to unravel the results of Canada's election
Speaker 1: what they mean for the future of the Liberal Party
Speaker 1: for Canada's approach to housing in the economy and the
Speaker 1: country's relationship with Trump.
Speaker 3: How decisive was this victory.
Speaker 1: How much of a mandate does Mark Carney have as
Speaker 1: Prime Minister now?
Speaker 2: So the key number is one hundred and seventy two.
Speaker 2: If you get one hundred and seventy two seats in Parliament,
Speaker 2: you have a majority government and you don't need anybody
Speaker 2: else's help to pass votes. The Liberals can just get
Speaker 2: anything done with their own caucus voting. Carney felt just
Speaker 2: short of that, but their main ally in parliament. The
Speaker 2: NDP got seven seats as we record. That gives you
Speaker 2: enough votes to pass votes in parliament and that should
Speaker 2: allow Carney to govern for a while.
Speaker 1: You were criss crossing the country. The insight into what
Speaker 1: may have affected turnout or results at the margin, I.
Speaker 2: Think it'll be the strongest turnout at least since twenty fifteen,
Speaker 2: which was the election that put Justin Trudeau first into power.
Speaker 2: There's no doubt what shaped this election primarily, which is
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and the reaction to Donald Trump. Not only
Speaker 2: the trade war that Trump has launched many countries but
Speaker 2: including Canada, but also there's kind of a unique Canadian factor,
Speaker 2: which is Donald Trump keeps threatening to make Canada the
Speaker 2: fifty first state.
Speaker 3: Canadians are angry.
Speaker 2: They're not traveling to the US nearly the numbers that
Speaker 2: they normally would in terms of vacations or any other reason.
Speaker 2: They're boycotting US products California wine, Kentucky, bourban all that
Speaker 2: stuff you will not find on many liquor store shelves
Speaker 2: right now. And it totally changed the landscape of this election,
Speaker 2: and Carneia has changed course from how Trudeau ran the
Speaker 2: Liberal Party, but also Canadians ultimately, in response to Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: came back to the Liberal Party, having over the last
Speaker 2: two years largely abandoned it.
Speaker 1: One last question about the results, how in line were
Speaker 1: they with the public opinion polling that we saw over
Speaker 1: the course of this campaign.
Speaker 2: The answer is complicated. The top line figure Carnee wins,
Speaker 2: Liberals win. This is a very easy story to tell,
Speaker 2: which is Mark Carney changed enough from Justin Trudeau, and
Speaker 2: also Canadians put their trust in him as the best
Speaker 2: leader to deal with Donald Trump and so pulled off
Speaker 2: a remarkable comeback for the Liberal Party at a national level.
Speaker 3: That's the story.
Speaker 2: The more you dig into it, the more complicated it gets.
Speaker 2: The single most surprising thing that happened last night is
Speaker 2: that what stopped Carney's Liberals from getting a majority government
Speaker 2: is Southern Ontario, which is Canada's manufacturing region. That's where
Speaker 2: the auto manufacturing industry is based, It's where the steel
Speaker 2: industry is based. This is one of the parts of
Speaker 2: the country that is most affected by Donald Trump and
Speaker 2: his tariffs. Southern Ontario went conservative last night, and so
Speaker 2: the Liberals, for whatever reason, were not able to win
Speaker 2: in the manufactor in region, despite the larger narrative of
Speaker 2: Mark Carney being the choice of Canadians to deal.
Speaker 3: With Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: There's some contradiction here, and I think this is going
Speaker 2: to be one of the biggest things to unpack in
Speaker 2: the coming days and weeks and months, is what happened
Speaker 2: in Southern Ontario that voters turned to Poliev and not
Speaker 2: to Carney.
Speaker 1: Let's look back and remind us how we got to
Speaker 1: this point. Justin Trudeau had been Prime minister for about
Speaker 1: ten years. He announces his decision to step down. That
Speaker 1: kickstarts this whole process. What brought it about? And what
Speaker 1: have these last few months been like?
Speaker 2: It's amazing it's hard to even put my mind back
Speaker 2: six months ago because it feels like years ago now.
Speaker 2: But up until December twenty twenty four, I would have
Speaker 2: told you Trudeau is going to stay on as Prime minister.
Speaker 3: He is determined to stay on.
Speaker 2: He's quite unpopular, his Liberal Party is far down in
Speaker 2: the polls. Pierre Poliev and the Conservative Party will almost
Speaker 2: certainly win the next election, probably by a large amount. Trudeau,
Speaker 2: he'd gone through an inflation shock. There was lots of
Speaker 2: problems plaguing, specifically affordability issues, cost of living issues, the
Speaker 2: cost of housing. He kind of lost control of parts
Speaker 2: of the immigration system, and too many people came in
Speaker 2: too quickly after the pandemic, and it caused all kinds
Speaker 2: of problems, especially in the housing market. Trudeau had become
Speaker 2: quite unpopular and yet was refusing to leave because he
Speaker 2: believed he could turn the ship around and defeat Pierre
Speaker 2: Poliev when an election was called. That's how everything looked,
Speaker 2: first when Donald Trump won the US election in November,
Speaker 2: and then heading into December, I mean, Trudeau was behind
Speaker 2: Polyev in the polls by like by more than twenty points.
Speaker 2: Simples had the gap at almost thirty points. I mean,
Speaker 2: this was looking like disaster for the Liberal Party.
Speaker 1: Right after Donald Trump took office, he started talking about
Speaker 1: making Canada a US state. Suddenly Conservative candidate Pierre Poliev,
Speaker 1: who'd adopted a Trump like Canada First slogan and campaigned
Speaker 1: on eliminating woke ideology from the public service, wasn't who
Speaker 1: many Canadians wanted to lead them. In one of the
Speaker 1: most surprising results of the night, Polyev lost his seat
Speaker 1: in Parliament, though he could hold onto his position as
Speaker 1: leader of the Conservative Party.
Speaker 2: It is stunning that Poliev lost his own riding. He's
Speaker 2: represented this riding, which is a it's on the edge
Speaker 2: of Ottawa. Parts of it are suburban and parts of
Speaker 2: it are rural. I mean there's like small there's farmers,
Speaker 2: there's small towns.
Speaker 3: As part of this riding.
Speaker 2: But Poliev has represented this district since two thousand and four,
Speaker 2: for more than twenty years, and he often wins it
Speaker 2: by gigantic margins. This is one of the most confounding
Speaker 2: things about what happened last night, which is the Conservatives
Speaker 2: did very well in Ontario, much better than I think
Speaker 2: than anybody thought they would, and yet Pierre Poliev got
Speaker 2: crushed in his riding.
Speaker 1: Introduce us to Mark Karney, who is a proud technocrat.
Speaker 1: Ran the central bank here in Canada, ran the Bank
Speaker 1: of England as well, I should say. Before he got
Speaker 1: into politics, he was the chair of Bloomberg Ink. Stepped
Speaker 1: down from that when he got into politics. How did
Speaker 1: he present himself to the Canadian electorate.
Speaker 2: So I spent a lot of time with Carnea on
Speaker 2: the campaign trailer. This is not a natural fit for
Speaker 2: him campaigning. He comes off still as a central banker.
Speaker 3: In many ways.
Speaker 2: He speaks in a low key manner. He answers questions,
Speaker 2: usually kind of in bullet point form. You ask him
Speaker 2: something and he goes, well, okay, three points I'd like
Speaker 2: to make here, you know. And sometimes he's like it out,
Speaker 2: I refer you back to point one, you know. Like
Speaker 2: that's how he talks. It's kind of a technocratic, managerial
Speaker 2: style of talking.
Speaker 3: He usually didn't change.
Speaker 2: The pitch of his voice too much, didn't deliver big
Speaker 2: roaring applause lines, a lot of hockey metaphors. You know,
Speaker 2: Canadians didn't start this fight, but when someone else drops
Speaker 2: their gloves were always ready and just like in hockey,
Speaker 2: we will win this trade war. You know, it was
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff like that, but delivered in sort
Speaker 2: of this calm, low key manner, and it.
Speaker 3: Worked for him.
Speaker 2: I think it's a really big question with Carney Weather
Speaker 2: in a normal election where he didn't have a Donald
Speaker 2: Trump factor, if this style of campaigning would work in
Speaker 2: this election. He was in many ways just a perfect
Speaker 2: fur to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: So if he leads a minority led government, he's going
Speaker 1: to have to work with other parties to bring them
Speaker 1: into the fold to get his legislative agenda passed. How able,
Speaker 1: how capable is he going to be of doing.
Speaker 3: That, It's a big challenge.
Speaker 2: He on the campaign trail didn't promise that he was
Speaker 2: just going to be tough with Trump or stand up
Speaker 2: for Canada. He said that stuff, but then he would
Speaker 2: also say I'm going to win Canada will win this
Speaker 2: trade war. So now he's got to deliver, and at
Speaker 2: least in the short term, I don't think Parliament's going
Speaker 2: to be too much of a challenge for him, because
Speaker 2: there's enough votes with the NDP that the Liberals should
Speaker 2: be able to pass their budget past.
Speaker 3: Whatever else they need to in parliament.
Speaker 2: You know, that will get harder as time goes along,
Speaker 2: but he's got you know, he's got to work now
Speaker 2: with a cabinet. You know, he's got to form a
Speaker 2: cabinet out of his out of the Liberal caucus, and
Speaker 2: he's got to now show Canadians I can deliver on
Speaker 2: these promises I made to you on the campaign trail.
Speaker 2: One of the biggest questions coming up is how quickly
Speaker 2: will he meet face to face with Donald Trump, because
Speaker 2: he has said we've agreed to do that after the
Speaker 2: election ended. He also has the G seven coming up,
Speaker 2: the G seven Leader Summit. Canada is hosting that in June,
Speaker 2: and will the American president who has threatened to annex
Speaker 2: the country and make it the fifty first state and
Speaker 2: has launched a trade war in many respects on Canada,
Speaker 2: will Canada welcome him with open arms to this G
Speaker 2: seven summit.
Speaker 1: We'll dig into the issues that Mark Carney will have
Speaker 1: to take up, including the most pressing renegotiating trade with
Speaker 1: the US.
Speaker 3: That's after the break.
Speaker 1: With the election behind him, Mark Carney will now be
Speaker 1: able to focus all his attention on governing. So I
Speaker 1: wanted to ask Bloomberg's Brian Platt about the Prime Minister's
Speaker 1: policy proposals is legislative agenda starting with his most pressing
Speaker 1: priority trade.
Speaker 2: Instead of going on this sector by sector, issue by issue.
Speaker 2: As soon as possible, Mark Karney and the Canadian government
Speaker 2: will try to make this a larger trade discus. There
Speaker 2: is a free trade deal, at least in name, there's
Speaker 2: a free trade deal the USMCA, and it's up for
Speaker 2: a review joint review anyway in twenty twenty six. And
Speaker 2: so I think what the Canadian government's goal here will
Speaker 2: be is, as soon as possible, get into a broader
Speaker 2: discussion about Okay, President Trump, what do you want to
Speaker 2: change in this deal? How can we find common ground here?
Speaker 2: And if you can get to like a larger agreement
Speaker 2: on that trade deal, you can get these tariffs lifted.
Speaker 2: That will be the goal of the Canadian government. How
Speaker 2: quickly Donald Trump is willing to take the discussion in
Speaker 2: that direction, we'll see, but that is will absolutely be
Speaker 2: in terms of the US. That will be Mark Carney's goal.
Speaker 2: He will have two other things he's trying to get
Speaker 2: done here. One of is to boost the Canadian economy,
Speaker 2: and he's talked about ways he wants to do this,
Speaker 2: especially by reducing trade barriers between the provinces, and I
Speaker 2: think the third thing he will try to do is
Speaker 2: diversify trade, to boost trade with Europe and Asia as
Speaker 2: much as possible.
Speaker 3: Noticed in his speech.
Speaker 1: Last night, yes there was excitement and congratulation, there's also
Speaker 1: this warning to Canadians about economic pain and that this
Speaker 1: is going to be difficult. How is he going to
Speaker 1: guide the country through economic pain that existed and is
Speaker 1: now being compounded by what's happening with the trade war.
Speaker 2: I think there's two ways to think about what's coming
Speaker 2: for Canada. Like one is the tariffs, and you know
Speaker 2: Trump is trying to get factories to move back to
Speaker 2: the US.
Speaker 3: So just the pure aspect of our factories.
Speaker 2: In Canada going to close and move to the US
Speaker 2: or is nobody going to open a new factory in Canada,
Speaker 2: that is a big threat, and especially in southern Ontario
Speaker 2: where you have the auto plants.
Speaker 3: And the steel industry and all that.
Speaker 2: But there's another aspect of this, which is when the
Speaker 2: US has a recession, Canada's economy tends to follow. Historically,
Speaker 2: it's very closely tied with the US. And Carney was
Speaker 2: the Governor of the Bank of Canada in two thousand
Speaker 2: and eight when the global financial crisis hits, and I think,
Speaker 2: you know, it's Carne's warning Canadians for a reason, which
Speaker 2: is he can see trouble on the horizon.
Speaker 1: I heard him on the campaign trail talking a lot
Speaker 1: about housing and affordable housing, and he's kind of presented
Speaker 1: it as this generational challenge for Canada to figure this out,
Speaker 1: to build more homes.
Speaker 2: There's a very simple way to look at this, which
Speaker 2: is there's no reason Canada should have a housing crisis.
Speaker 2: We have a huge, geographically huge country that is underpopulated.
Speaker 3: There's no reason.
Speaker 2: We have plenty of land to build on. But the
Speaker 2: issue is just the nature of government in Canada. The
Speaker 2: federal government only has so much control over housing construction.
Speaker 2: It's provincial governments and municipal governments that have the most
Speaker 2: control over building housing. I should say there's two things
Speaker 2: that the federal government can do. One is money, the
Speaker 2: other is the immigration system. Justin Trudeau already pulled back
Speaker 2: on immigration, especially temporary immigration, so foreign students and temporary
Speaker 2: foreign workers, pulled back on how many of those people
Speaker 2: were coming into the country through those immigration streams in
Speaker 2: order to give time for the housing market to catch up.
Speaker 3: Carne will do the same thing.
Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like he's planning to scale back even more,
Speaker 2: but he's going to keep that in place what Trudeau did,
Speaker 2: scale back immigration, give more time for housing construction to
Speaker 2: catch up. But this is an issue that needs to
Speaker 2: be solved by multiple levels of government, not just the
Speaker 2: federal government, and so that makes it very difficult for Carney.
Speaker 3: Again, we will see how this goes in practice.
Speaker 1: We have seen the rise of populist politicians around the world.
Speaker 1: As you look at the outcome of this race, what
Speaker 1: does it tell you about the longevity or breadth of
Speaker 1: that trend.
Speaker 2: I think it's a big question how much this election
Speaker 2: is a one time thing or you know, or have
Speaker 2: things changed permanently.
Speaker 3: Carney is the opposite of a populist right. I mean, he.
Speaker 2: Basically talks about himself as Yes, I'm a global elite.
Speaker 3: Yes, that's what I am.
Speaker 2: I was a central banker in two different G seven countries.
Speaker 2: I chaired Brookfield Asset Management, I was the chair of Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm a corporate elite. I'm a global elite.
Speaker 2: That's what you're getting A few elect me. He has
Speaker 2: not tried to run away from that right. Pierre Pauliev
Speaker 2: was much more of a populist, and yet Mark Carney won.
Speaker 2: The populist in this election did not win, But I
Speaker 2: don't know if Mark Carney's voter coalition is how permanent
Speaker 2: or not it is. This was a very strange election
Speaker 2: by Canadian standards. Normally in Canada's a multi party system.
Speaker 2: This was a much more American style election. You had
Speaker 2: the Liberals and the Conservatives, a two party race. Will
Speaker 2: that last or will the NDP, Will some of the
Speaker 2: other parties have more strength in the next election, and
Speaker 2: will that change everything again? I think it is maybe
Speaker 2: the single biggest question hanging over this election right now
Speaker 2: is is this the new political landscape or is this
Speaker 2: a very unusual election shaped in particular by Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited
Speaker 1: by Tracy Sandelson and Melissa Shin. It was fact checked
Speaker 1: by Adrian A. Tapia and Rachel Lewis Chrisky. It was
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Speaker 1: is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our
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Speaker 1: Nicole Beemster Boor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
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Speaker 3: We'll be back tomorrow