Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day
Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics
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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. What has been happening
Speaker 2: to the gold price is not just unusual in terms
Speaker 2: of traditional economic and financial influences, it also goes beyond
Speaker 2: strict geopolitical influences. The capture a broader phenomenon which is
Speaker 2: building secular momentum. Mohammad joins us now for more. Mohammad,
Speaker 2: Welcome to the program sir, always looking forward to roundom
Speaker 2: out the week with you. This got a lot of
Speaker 2: attention in the Financial Times this week. Just take it
Speaker 2: from the top four US. What are you trying to
Speaker 2: get people to pay attention to not just why the
Speaker 2: move is higher, but what is behind it and how
Speaker 2: long this has been building for.
Speaker 3: And thanks for having me, John Lord. Gold is up
Speaker 3: thirty two percent year to date. That's compared to twenty
Speaker 3: two percent for the SMP. When we try to relate
Speaker 3: the moves in goal this year to the traditional economic
Speaker 3: and financial variables interest rates, inflation, the dollar, you know them,
Speaker 3: the relationships have broken down. It has been a very
Speaker 3: sort of linear move up and it's something that's continuing
Speaker 3: for a while now. Then you ask the question who's
Speaker 3: buying and you start getting the answer that what is
Speaker 3: happening to gold goes well beyond economics and finance, goes
Speaker 3: well beyond the fluctuations dull politics. There's something secular going
Speaker 3: on and that has two elements. One is slow diversification
Speaker 3: away from the dollar in the reserves of central banks
Speaker 3: around the world, and the other one is a slow
Speaker 3: diversification away from the dollar payment system. Now, the good
Speaker 3: news for the US is both are slow because you
Speaker 3: cannot replace something with nothing. People are still building alternatives.
Speaker 3: The bad news is that the momentum is building up.
Speaker 3: So this is something that people have to take seriously
Speaker 3: in the US if they want to maintain the influence
Speaker 3: that the US has.
Speaker 2: Globally, Mohamma, do you think this is a fairly recent
Speaker 2: trend or something that's been building for a number of years,
Speaker 2: maybe even decades.
Speaker 3: It's multi year, but it's been accelerated recently by two events.
Speaker 3: So it's multi year because there has been some questioning
Speaker 3: about the US being a good steward of the global system.
Speaker 3: The global financial crisis was the first shock. The weaponization
Speaker 3: of trade and investment was a second shock. The way
Speaker 3: the US treated inflation was a third shock. So there's
Speaker 3: been questions built, and we've seen little pipes being institutions,
Speaker 3: payments system. But then there's been two more frequent, more
Speaker 3: recent events that have accelerated that. One is Russia being
Speaker 3: able to continue to trade and grow while being kicked
Speaker 3: out of Swift. That has gotten a lot of people
Speaker 3: paying attention. How did Russia do this? And of course
Speaker 3: the answer is they built a very clunky system that
Speaker 3: involves four other countries, but it works and they avoid
Speaker 3: the dollar completely. That's first of all. Second development is
Speaker 3: what's been happening in the least where the majority of
Speaker 3: countries around the world have viewed the US as an
Speaker 3: inconsistent backer of human rights and an inconsistent back of
Speaker 3: international law. So you've had those two recent developments that
Speaker 3: have accelerated something that's been in play for a while.
Speaker 4: Mom, and I'm glad you mentioned what's going on with Russia.
Speaker 4: John and I spoke to Deleep Singing yesterday, Biden's Deputy
Speaker 4: National Security Advisor for International Economics, and we asked him this,
Speaker 4: what do you say to those that say sanctions don't work,
Speaker 4: they just create new markets? And his response is, well,
Speaker 4: what's your alternative? You have to do something. I guess
Speaker 4: the question is what is the alternative?
Speaker 3: So that's a really hard question, and Marie, there is
Speaker 3: no easy alternative. I think if you look back, those
Speaker 3: who impose those sanctions now wish they had gone far
Speaker 3: further straight away, that this slowgmentation of sanction has given
Speaker 3: Russia enormous time to build alternative systems. That if you're
Speaker 3: serious about sanctions, then you should be willing to absorb
Speaker 3: the cost of sanctions to you, and that's something that
Speaker 3: neither Europe nor the US was willing to do. Initially,
Speaker 3: that were very worried about the blowback in terms of
Speaker 3: oil prices in particular, But looking back now, I suspect
Speaker 3: that they wish that they had gone further initially.
Speaker 4: Well, that's part of the problem when a lot of
Speaker 4: critics of this White House is why have a price cap,
Speaker 4: just sanction the actual oil and gas and cut off
Speaker 4: the funds that Putin is using to continue to wage
Speaker 4: this war. Putin is hosting the Brick Summit. He says,
Speaker 4: it's now a multi multipolar world is emerging. Do you agree?
Speaker 3: So? Certainly the Bridge submit is involving more countries and
Speaker 3: more heads of state. But to jump from there to
Speaker 3: say a multi multipolar world, that's way too far. It
Speaker 3: is still at a very very early stage. It's going
Speaker 3: to be very hard to get them to unite around
Speaker 3: certain issues. So we should pay attention. I think if
Speaker 3: you want to worry about a multipolar world, you worry
Speaker 3: about China. China is creating institutions. The US is not
Speaker 3: part of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and that institution
Speaker 3: is growing and it's collaborating with the World Bank. China
Speaker 3: is building little pipes around the system fifty by later
Speaker 3: of payments agreement with other countries that completely exclude the dollar.
Speaker 3: So if you're looking at the alternative architecture, pay attention
Speaker 3: to China. Now, I want to stress there is no
Speaker 3: other current to replace the dollar at the core of
Speaker 3: the system, and there's no other payment system to replace
Speaker 3: the dollar payment system. But you can build pipes around it,
Speaker 3: and that's what starts fragmenting the system.
Speaker 2: And as we know, China has been buying a lot
Speaker 2: of gold. So Mohammed, let's bring it home a little bit.
Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about international forces, let's talk about
Speaker 2: domestic once.
Speaker 1: The US deficit.
Speaker 2: Now, if you look at traditional financial indicators like the
Speaker 2: treasury market and foreign exchange treasuries, we are seeing higher yields.
Speaker 2: But what we're not seeing in the FX market is
Speaker 2: a week of dollar. We're not seeing a week of dollar.
Speaker 2: And some people might suggest that that's not a real
Speaker 2: worry about the deficit. Then no real side of a
Speaker 2: bias strike away from dollar denominated assets. You're not seeing
Speaker 2: the Euro, the yen, or the Chinese. You runt much
Speaker 2: stronger off the back of this. Now, some people might
Speaker 2: push back and go back to your story, Mohammed and say, actually,
Speaker 2: you are seeing the dollar depreciate, You're seeing depreciate against gold. Mohammad,
Speaker 2: can you share your thoughts with us about whether we
Speaker 2: are starting to see some concerns creep in about the
Speaker 2: US deficit into financial markets.
Speaker 3: First, let's start with currencies. Currencies are relative prices, so
Speaker 3: you would not pick up concern about the US deficit
Speaker 3: because other countries have their own debt and deficit problems.
Speaker 3: You know. I go back to this notion the US
Speaker 3: is the cleanest dirty shirt, So you will not pick
Speaker 3: up in the currency in the relative price. So you
Speaker 3: have to look at an absolute price. And that's why
Speaker 3: people competit dollar to gold. Gold is a store of value.
Speaker 3: Gold is not really a currency or unit of account.
Speaker 3: It is a store of value. And people look at
Speaker 3: that and say, well, relative to gold, the dollar is depreciating. Now,
Speaker 3: why is it doing this. I talk a little bit
Speaker 3: about that, but it's not just the impact of the debt.
Speaker 3: I mean the impact of the debt is making people
Speaker 3: wonder about how over the very long term. I want
Speaker 3: to stress the credit worthiness of the US bond yield
Speaker 3: levels are now being impacted on by four things, and
Speaker 3: you pay. No one has been able to tell what
Speaker 3: it is. One is US economic exceptionalism. We are simply
Speaker 3: growing better. Look at the recent IMF revisions, US up
Speaker 3: in terms of growth rate. Second thing is the WE calibration,
Speaker 3: although I hate that word, the WE calibration of expectations
Speaker 3: for the FED and the question mark as to what's
Speaker 3: fifty basis points in September in October a mistake. The
Speaker 3: third issue is the debt, and the fourth issue has
Speaker 3: to do with the overall sort of confidence in there.
Speaker 3: No one's been able to tell me John, with any
Speaker 3: degree of confidence the relative weight of the four. So yes,
Speaker 3: that may be an issue, but I'm not sure how
Speaker 3: big it is.
Speaker 4: Muhammad, you forgot one provision. One topic the US presidential election.
Speaker 4: Is that impacting gold right now? Is that impacting bond
Speaker 4: yield right now?
Speaker 3: So certain people feel it's impacting bond yields and they
Speaker 3: throw it in there, and then you ask, how is
Speaker 3: it impacting bond yield exactly? Is it the tariffs? Is
Speaker 3: it industrial policy? What exactly is playing out in there?
Speaker 3: And then it's hard to answer. So I'll add it
Speaker 3: if you want to the list. But I suspect that
Speaker 3: that the coefficient on that is not as high as
Speaker 3: coefficient on some other things, particularly US economic exceptionalism and
Speaker 3: FED policy.
Speaker 2: Mohammed. Just a final word, Yankees or Dudgers. That's so
Speaker 2: we want to know.
Speaker 3: And movie sitting right next to you, and she has
Speaker 3: a she has a wonderful New York Yankees cup on there.
Speaker 3: I told I told her in an earlier thing that
Speaker 3: for the first time ever, I may be thinking of
Speaker 3: abandoning the National League.
Speaker 2: Mohammed Dalarian, Big cold there, Mohammed of Queen's College, Cambridge.
Speaker 2: Tamala Harris and Donald Trump heading deeper into their oppositions
Speaker 2: backyard and the penultimate week of the election race, Trump
Speaker 2: gearing out for a rally over the weekend of Madison
Speaker 2: Square Garden, with Harris heading to Houston, Texas, as both
Speaker 2: candidates look to grab attention in the last few days
Speaker 2: of the campaign. At mos of Raymond James writing, the
Speaker 2: recent shift in sentiment and polling appears to favor former
Speaker 2: President Donald Trump, but given the surprise results of recent elections,
Speaker 2: we continue to view the presidential election as a US
Speaker 2: up at John des now for more and welcome back
Speaker 2: to the program sir. Let's talk about this trend of
Speaker 2: going against your all positions backyard. How powerful do you
Speaker 2: think that effort is?
Speaker 5: So, John, I think it's an important way of trying
Speaker 5: to nationalize the race in the final days here. Going
Speaker 5: to Texas gives an opportunity to give the Senate candidate
Speaker 5: that is challenging Ted Cruz Allrad a boost of support,
Speaker 5: but it also gives an opportunity for Kamala Harris to
Speaker 5: talk about abortion. We're going to see her next week
Speaker 5: on the National Mall. She is in the early stage
Speaker 5: of making that closing argument. For former President Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: What we're going to see is the stadium tour trying
Speaker 5: to show that his movement is truly national. So we
Speaker 5: have had a range on the swing states, but in
Speaker 5: the closing days here, I do think you try to
Speaker 5: nationalize the race, make that closing arguments, and try to
Speaker 5: have that attention in all states and try to see
Speaker 5: if you can go on the offensive. See if there's
Speaker 5: some state that doesn't seem to be on anyone's map right.
Speaker 1: Now that could flip.
Speaker 5: We saw that in twenty sixteen, we saw that in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: Will we see that again here.
Speaker 4: In twenty four For Kamala Harris, Houston makes sense because
Speaker 4: she's going to be joined by Beyonce, and as you say,
Speaker 4: she wants to talk with this issue of reproductive rights.
Speaker 4: Is one of the states that has one of the
Speaker 4: most stringent abortion roles in the country. But why is
Speaker 4: Donald Trump once again in New York. He was in
Speaker 4: the Bronx earlier this year. He was just in Nasau County.
Speaker 4: Why the Garden.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, there are a number of things about
Speaker 5: the Trump campaign that I would not always say this
Speaker 5: is a traditional campaign. I do think he does want
Speaker 5: to have this rally at some of these major kind
Speaker 5: of venues, showing that there's enthusiasm. And I think part
Speaker 5: of what they tried to have from the Trump campaign
Speaker 5: is saying that this is a movement that's national and
Speaker 5: even though there are some states that they are exceptionally
Speaker 5: unlikely to win, there is a strong basis support. New
Speaker 5: York is also critical for the race for the House
Speaker 5: of Representatives. We look at New York, we look at California.
Speaker 5: There are eight Republicans in toss ups districts. If Harris
Speaker 5: is able to mobilize her base, she's probably going to
Speaker 5: see the Democrats win control of the House of Representatives.
Speaker 5: If Donald Trump is able to stabilize and kind of
Speaker 5: get his base out on Long Island in some of
Speaker 5: the close in suburb districts.
Speaker 1: In New York.
Speaker 5: Maybe a couple of those Republicans hang on. Maybe Republicans
Speaker 5: hang on to their House majority.
Speaker 4: And you mentioned the Texas Senate race. This is Ted Cruz,
Speaker 4: a seat that he is defending. This morning. I was
Speaker 4: looking at polling. It's Republican backed, but they do some
Speaker 4: good polling the Senate Opportunity Fund. They now have Nevada
Speaker 4: Rosen and Brown tied. What are you seeing in some
Speaker 4: of the down ballot ticket races.
Speaker 5: They're really really close, And I think what we have
Speaker 5: seen in Nevada is a consistent lead for Senator Rosen
Speaker 5: throughout this cycle, but with the early voting coming in Nevada,
Speaker 5: there's been a tilt to Republicans at least that's what
Speaker 5: the non priorcs and prognosticators out there and some of
Speaker 5: the press that do a great job in Nevada kind
Speaker 5: of following that. So they're seeing a tight, maybe slight
Speaker 5: lead for Donald Trump in Nevada.
Speaker 1: So investing a little bit.
Speaker 5: More seeing if Sam Brown, the Republican contender, can maybe
Speaker 5: catch that seat, even though he's been down the whole cycle.
Speaker 5: At this part of the game, it is also a
Speaker 5: bit of a chess match between these campaign committees. Making
Speaker 5: a couple million dollar investment in one seat is trying
Speaker 5: to get that last push from donors to say, oh,
Speaker 5: we're on the offense. People like to be with the
Speaker 5: link winning team, and so the more you're on the
Speaker 5: offensive going into the final stretch, the more you can
Speaker 5: get your.
Speaker 1: Donors to pony up.
Speaker 5: Donors don't like to give money if they think the
Speaker 5: campaign's losing. And so again, it's probably part of a
Speaker 5: national strategy by both the senatorial campaign arms the Republican
Speaker 5: and Democrats to say that there is an offensive opportunity.
Speaker 5: Is it for Texas for Democrats? Is it for Nevada
Speaker 5: for Republicans? Some of this is a little bit of
Speaker 5: bluffing at this point, But we have to wait to
Speaker 5: election day to see whose bets were actually the correct
Speaker 5: bet to make.
Speaker 2: And let's talk about that. How long it's going to
Speaker 2: take to actually find out the answer to some of
Speaker 2: the questions we have. One thing we know is that
Speaker 2: it will take a long time to count some of
Speaker 2: these votes. Ed, what are you telling clients about when
Speaker 2: you expect to actually see a result to this election?
Speaker 1: So, John, my hope.
Speaker 5: For this election and my hope for the markets is
Speaker 5: that what we've gone back and we've looked at many
Speaker 5: past elections and what we're at fifth fifty in the
Speaker 5: presidential race, and we look at a number of these.
Speaker 1: Cases in the Senate where those are kind.
Speaker 5: Of toss up, which implies fifty to fifty, they tend
Speaker 5: to all break in one direction. And so if we
Speaker 5: do have seven swing states, we could see it break
Speaker 5: five to two six ' one in the end. And
Speaker 5: if we are seeing that break in that direction, we
Speaker 5: will know probably early on kind of Wednesday morning after
Speaker 5: the election, kind of largely who's won. If it comes
Speaker 5: down to one state, that could be a week, that
Speaker 5: could be a couple a month or more before we
Speaker 5: know who that is. I don't want to have that happen.
Speaker 5: Pennsylvania was called Saturday after the election.
Speaker 1: Nevadom was called Saturday after the election.
Speaker 5: It was sixteen days before North Carolina was called in
Speaker 5: the twenty twenty election. I don't want to be waiting
Speaker 5: sixteen days. So my hope is that we do have
Speaker 5: a decisive break on election day. It will be pretty
Speaker 5: clear election night, if not early Wednesday morning.
Speaker 4: And the most important county in Arizona Maricopa County. Their
Speaker 4: officials are saying it could take ten to thirteen days.
Speaker 4: What if this comes down to Arizona.
Speaker 5: Well, that's the deciding factor. Where it's like we did
Speaker 5: look back into twenty twenty. We put out a note.
Speaker 5: A number of clients at Raymond James have been asking
Speaker 5: us when will we know?
Speaker 1: So we'd get a chart of every single.
Speaker 5: State that we got the calls, and it was interesting
Speaker 5: that most of the kind of swing states that are
Speaker 5: being discussed this year were called Saturday or after the election.
Speaker 5: My gut tells me that we probably will have a
Speaker 5: clear kind of direction on election night, if not early
Speaker 5: on Wednesday, it probably will take until a week or
Speaker 5: more for the final certification of these results.
Speaker 1: We just don't want to be back in the two thousand.
Speaker 5: Land where it gets litigated or we have election denial
Speaker 5: two point zero because we have different vote counting methods
Speaker 5: which kind of will favor one candidate early versus the other.
Speaker 1: There are bloom states, there are rad mirage states.
Speaker 4: Is there any concern that it might take days for
Speaker 4: some of the down ballot seats.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think we could be in a
Speaker 5: scenario if it's a very close House or representative race.
Speaker 5: New York and California, as I mentioned, are two states
Speaker 5: that could determine the outcome of this majority in the
Speaker 5: House of Representatives. New York and California are really slow
Speaker 5: to count votes, especially on absentee ballots, and so they're
Speaker 5: not normally swing states. They're not going to be swing
Speaker 5: states at the presidential level, so they don't get the attention.
Speaker 5: But on some primaries where they have gone into kind
Speaker 5: of a very close final count, it's been weeks at
Speaker 5: times before we know the final result of some of
Speaker 5: those House races. It's arguably unacceptable, but that's just the
Speaker 5: reality of the way their systems are set up. So
Speaker 5: we probably know kind of the result of the presidential
Speaker 5: election before we know the results of the final House
Speaker 5: and Senate races for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Here and we all agree with you. The fact that
Speaker 2: this has been such an issue for such a long
Speaker 2: time and still hasn't been addressed is unacceptable, and thank you, sir.
Speaker 2: At most of Raymond James there don't get around of table.
Speaker 2: Sonny meskit A ups, Sonny, good morning. It's got to
Speaker 2: see you just had a conversation with definitely about payrolls
Speaker 2: next week, base case for her seventy k if you've
Speaker 2: got a base case, and how difficult is it to
Speaker 2: just pick a number at the sky and roll with
Speaker 2: it for next week?
Speaker 6: So tough. And we've talked about this before actually on
Speaker 6: this program specifically, the report that we got last time
Speaker 6: was probably the last clean report for the year given
Speaker 6: all these hurricane effects and such. And Waller came out
Speaker 6: recently and said, look, this next report can be down
Speaker 6: by one hundred cage as from the weather effects. So
Speaker 6: we just think that the Fed is going to have
Speaker 6: to look through this one off weather impact, as horrible
Speaker 6: as it is for the unity is that are impacted.
Speaker 2: And actually know this treasury market has been doing much
Speaker 2: of the same thing, lening on retail sales, upside surprise,
Speaker 2: jobless claims back to pre hurricane levels. We've set that
Speaker 2: repeatedly through this morning, and we've had a move on
Speaker 2: a ten uere of something like fifty to sixty banks
Speaker 2: Is points since the Fed cut interest rates by fifty
Speaker 2: Banks's points. What's driving treasuries now right now for you?
Speaker 2: Because the debate we've had on this program, data or politics,
Speaker 2: politics or data, a mix of the two or one
Speaker 2: or the other.
Speaker 6: We think, look, it's three things driving rates right now.
Speaker 6: Uncertainty around inflation, uncertainty around years from growth, with the
Speaker 6: fiscal trajectory is from both candidates, and the broader fiscal
Speaker 6: trajectory of the United States that may potentially come more
Speaker 6: into a focus as we near the election. All speed to.
Speaker 4: Political strategists who say the proposals don on Trump has
Speaker 4: right now and he's putting out there is worse for
Speaker 4: the deficit. You don't think that's true. You think both
Speaker 4: camps are pretty bad for the deficit.
Speaker 6: Well, so we actually differ a bit from consensus here.
Speaker 6: We've done some modeling around this, and we think that
Speaker 6: Kamala here would probably extend the deficit by about two trillion,
Speaker 6: whereas Trump would extend the deficit by just over four trillion.
Speaker 6: In the grand scheme of things in the wall of
Speaker 6: the entitlements that are coming more and more into focus
Speaker 6: for the markets, and also the TCGA extension and then
Speaker 6: the immigration policies that would impact the labor market and
Speaker 6: therefore inflation and growth, we think that those differences are
Speaker 6: actually not the biggest.
Speaker 4: So do you find it odd that the bond market
Speaker 4: is pricing in Trump, Well, we think that.
Speaker 6: You know, over the weekend, for example, we saw him
Speaker 6: improving the polls, and historically Trump has done a bit
Speaker 6: better in elections than polls have shown, so it's not
Speaker 6: exactly unusual that the market is giving him more credence
Speaker 6: right now.
Speaker 2: Do you think we're WoT priced for it in the
Speaker 2: treasury market? Because we've gone back and forth on this
Speaker 2: a lot. There is a massive difference between a Trump
Speaker 2: presidency and a full GOP sweep. And I've heard from
Speaker 2: the likes of Bemos in Lincoln who suggested that outside
Speaker 2: of a GOP sweep, it's difficult to see ten year
Speaker 2: treasury yields anywhere between twenty thirty forty fifty basis points
Speaker 2: higher from here. How our price do you think we
Speaker 2: are for eather scenario at the moment?
Speaker 6: Well, we think that fundamentally, if we start pricing in
Speaker 6: a wide deficit like seven percent of GDP going forward
Speaker 6: while we're growing at say, at trend of nominal four
Speaker 6: percent GDP, if this is not a good trajectory, this
Speaker 6: is going to drive the term premium up in and
Speaker 6: of its zone, right, and there's going to be a
Speaker 6: crowding out effect in terms of growth. Then on top
Speaker 6: of it, we have the debt ceiling coming up, which
Speaker 6: can be punted further by Congress, for example, in the
Speaker 6: next year, but increases uncertainty therefore for businesses and households.
Speaker 6: So there's lots going on in the treasury market right now.
Speaker 4: When you rank twenty twenty five, and the concerns is
Speaker 4: it deat ceiling, TCGA, then tariffs what gives you most
Speaker 4: the cost for concern?
Speaker 6: Well, the tariff scenario is actually very interesting scenario because
Speaker 6: tariffs only on China would actually not in our modeling,
Speaker 6: have as big of an impact on the US economy
Speaker 6: specifically as all our terror Why well, because all our
Speaker 6: tariffs would be there would be much less of a
Speaker 6: substitution affecting more potential retaliation from the trading partners. So
Speaker 6: it's a really a sexflationary environment and that would be
Speaker 6: quite impactful.
Speaker 4: But wouldn't China retaliate?
Speaker 6: China would, but they're a smaller portion now of our economy.
Speaker 6: The interaction with them was a smaller portion of our
Speaker 6: economy than pre COVID. There's been a lot of a
Speaker 6: substitution effect already.
Speaker 2: We know how much this would hit Europe and we've
Speaker 2: started to see a big divergence, a gap open up
Speaker 2: between the German tenure and the US tenure as well.
Speaker 2: Are you expected some form of divergence Street twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five between the US and Europe across growth, across rates,
Speaker 2: across central bank policy.
Speaker 6: Well, we've had some divergence already, right, Other central banks
Speaker 6: have started easing a lot earlier than we have, and
Speaker 6: that we've had stronger growth. I think one of the
Speaker 6: differences that we do see going forward potentially is what
Speaker 6: happens with inflation, because we see inflation actually surprising to
Speaker 6: the upside into the first quarter of next year, and
Speaker 6: whether this happens in Europe or not, for example, is
Speaker 6: a different story. We also think, interestingly that part of
Speaker 6: the decline in inflation globally has been not necessarily the
Speaker 6: central bank phenomenon. So that means that it's actually more
Speaker 6: difficult for central banks to control if we see upside
Speaker 6: surprises as well.
Speaker 2: It's a really really important final point. Sondra is great
Speaker 2: to see you, Sonya Mskin of UBS. This is the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics,
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