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Speaker 1: The total amount that would be wiped out by the

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Speaker 1: slow down of the world economy is going to be

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Speaker 1: between now and six four trillion dollars. This is the

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Speaker 1: size of Germany g d P gone. And when we

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Speaker 1: when we look at the picture, we are asking what

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Speaker 1: are the drivers and of course what can be done?

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Speaker 1: Hello Stephanomics, here the podcast that brings you the global

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Speaker 1: economy this week from Washington, d C. For the meetings

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Speaker 1: of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Though as

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Speaker 1: you'll here, I have an entirely escaped the crisis battering

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Speaker 1: the UK. It's the first of these meetings they've been

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Speaker 1: able to hold a hundred percent in person since before COVID,

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Speaker 1: which might have added an upbeat tone to the proceedings

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Speaker 1: if the news from the world economy hadn't been so bleak.

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Speaker 1: The I m S Managing director Chris d'lina Gorgieva kicked

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Speaker 1: things off with that morning that Shion would blow a

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Speaker 1: Germany sized hole in the global economy by six and

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Speaker 1: that rather set the tone. It's inflation that's causing the trouble.

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Speaker 1: Inflation and central banks efforts to control it, which have

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Speaker 1: produced the largest, most synchronized increase in interest rates the

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Speaker 1: world seen in thirty years. In a few minutes, we

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Speaker 1: have a report from Maria Eloisa Caburo in Brazil on

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Speaker 1: the way high inflations infecting daily life in Latin America

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Speaker 1: and upending the region's politics. We also go to Beijing

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Speaker 1: to find out exactly what's involved in covering the Chinese

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Speaker 1: Communist Party Congress happening next week, and we're told hugely

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Speaker 1: important for cementing the rule of President shi Jing Ping.

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Speaker 1: Theo's Bloomberg correspondent Callum Murphy explained working out exactly what's

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Speaker 1: happened is going to be a challenge. But first, here's

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Speaker 1: some of a conversation I had with my friend, the

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Speaker 1: Financial Time senior economic commentator, Martin Wolf. The event was

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Speaker 1: hosted by the Institute for International Finance and moderated by

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Speaker 1: its president and chief executive, Tim Adams. He started by

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Speaker 1: asking us what on earth was happening in the UK? Martin,

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Speaker 1: tell me about your new prime minister. What's she going

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Speaker 1: to do well? In my I think my last column

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Speaker 1: them ended up. These people are mad, bad and dangerous.

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Speaker 1: They have to go. This was a serious understatement. So oh,

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Speaker 1: I didn't expect them to know. I just want his

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Speaker 1: treat to note that I called it. We have a

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Speaker 1: government that came in with a plan. Uh plan is

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Speaker 1: far too fancy a word, a a manifesto, agenda of

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Speaker 1: how Britain will be fixed forever, essentially of an idealized Thatcher,

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Speaker 1: without the fact that that was a great politician, which

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Speaker 1: is quite an important distinction, or in American context, Reagan Reaganism,

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Speaker 1: and he was also a great politician, which these people

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Speaker 1: certainly aren't. I'm not sure that even now understand it.

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Speaker 1: I'm very happy to talk about economics and why it's

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Speaker 1: all problematic and what on earth does the Bank of

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Speaker 1: England do when everybody can see that the government is

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Speaker 1: run by lunatics. But the really interesting question is how

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Speaker 1: our group finished here, is how this happened, And I

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Speaker 1: think the answer to that is, in extreme form, we

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Speaker 1: are going through a political crisis, crisis crisis in the

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Speaker 1: political institutional system, which we are also seeing in different

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Speaker 1: ways in some other G seven nations, not all, and

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Speaker 1: and this has become increasingly obvious over the last at

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Speaker 1: least twelve, fifteen, twenty years that spends when you start

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Speaker 1: the COCA every party coalition doesn't work anymore. And in

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Speaker 1: this case a really rather small part of the Conservative

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Speaker 1: Party coalition from an electoral point of view, but a

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Speaker 1: large part of the membership, which is tiny now really tiny,

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Speaker 1: chose a Prime Minister who represents at most perhaps a

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Speaker 1: third depends on how you look at it of them

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Speaker 1: of the views of the members of Parliament. And that's

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Speaker 1: what we're living with. Let's give it a little bit

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Speaker 1: of growth. There is an ambition to have capital formation

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Speaker 1: focused on supply side growth. When you say there are

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Speaker 1: some elements there that are worth pursuing. It is true

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Speaker 1: that the UK has lagged behind other countries since the

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Speaker 1: global financial crisis in terms of what looks like it's

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Speaker 1: sort of potential growth rate. I mean, none of them

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Speaker 1: are looking great, but the UK was definitely had taken

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Speaker 1: a step down post global financial crisis. And some of

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Speaker 1: the idea is in the quasi quatngs growth collection of

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Speaker 1: ideas to maybe not plan were perfectly good, but they

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Speaker 1: involved some difficult things like planning were formed to really

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Speaker 1: insist that houses get built or make it easier for

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Speaker 1: big infrastructure programs to get built. One problem with some

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Speaker 1: of our agenda was that a lot of the natural

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Speaker 1: enemies are conservative supporters, the people who don't want big

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Speaker 1: housing estates built in their backyard. And another was that

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Speaker 1: this we've already gone quite far down this road with

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Speaker 1: Margaret Thatcher to the to the extent that it was

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Speaker 1: a deregulatory agenda or low tax agenda, we'd already gone

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Speaker 1: further than most other countries. There are diminishing returns. The

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Speaker 1: major issue is a program like that. We have not

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Speaker 1: there's not been centered around tax cuts in the past

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Speaker 1: that were unfunded. And to make that kind of gamble

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Speaker 1: at a time when the markets were quite likely to punish,

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Speaker 1: punish that in a way that would be completely self defeating,

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Speaker 1: I think was was the really foolish thing. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you want growth, you don't tank the currency and

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Speaker 1: lead to a further run up in borrowing costs that's

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Speaker 1: actually going to cost you more in the long run

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Speaker 1: and probably hurt growth. Oh and by the way, in

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Speaker 1: order to reassure about the long term fiscal strategy, you're

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Speaker 1: looking at around forty to fifty billion pounds more squeeze

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Speaker 1: more austerity than George Osborne did. And a lot of

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Speaker 1: that the easy things to do, like cutting public investments

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Speaker 1: that will hurt growth much more than if these tax

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Speaker 1: cuts would ever help it. You can't do rea economics

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Speaker 1: in the UK period, but you surely can't do it

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Speaker 1: in the middle of a world crisis. I mean, come on.

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Speaker 1: But the other question you asked is would it work economically,

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Speaker 1: And as I've tried to explain them and go through it,

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Speaker 1: the answer is no. The we don't have a very

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Speaker 1: deep problem of personal incentives. Are tax ratio is by

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Speaker 1: the standards of most of our peers pretty low. We're

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Speaker 1: not the US and we will never will be. Um.

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Speaker 1: We have incredibly low rates of corporate investment. But the

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Speaker 1: tax on corporations that they're going to introduce is the

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Speaker 1: one that was introduced by George Osborne, which did nothing

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Speaker 1: for corporate investment, which, by the way, I said at

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Speaker 1: the time, if I think wouldn't it's economically frivolous, to

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Speaker 1: put it bluntly. So Andrew is in a tough spot.

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Speaker 1: He's got a fine inflation at the same time, is

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Speaker 1: in the guilt market today and maybe extending for weeks

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Speaker 1: to come. The Bank of England's in a tough spot.

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Speaker 1: How does he navigate this? Um? Well, I think what

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Speaker 1: he has to do is use every institutional means he has,

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Speaker 1: and it may or may not be enough to cajole

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Speaker 1: behind the scenes the Chancellor and the Prime Minister into

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Speaker 1: putting forward a fiscal plan which looks are sustainable. If

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Speaker 1: they have a fiscal plan which looks sustainable, then the

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Speaker 1: pressure on sterling and on the guilt market. It's clearly

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Speaker 1: going to have much higher interest rates than before, but

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Speaker 1: that was going to happen anyway for various reasons, and

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Speaker 1: that will affect the public announces, So that's important. But

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Speaker 1: the Central Bank cannot maintain stability in the bond market

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Speaker 1: for a government that has a fiscal plan which everybody

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Speaker 1: regards us crazy. This is that now we get into

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Speaker 1: a problem that is going to be faced by other places,

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Speaker 1: not least the ECB when it thinks about Italy. We're

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Speaker 1: going to have a dynamic with a lot of countries

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Speaker 1: about how much do you let investors make a new

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Speaker 1: judgment about the long term sustainability of debt without that

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Speaker 1: is that is harsh? Um, how do you let that

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Speaker 1: happen whilst but avoid sort of great a risk. The

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Speaker 1: CBS problem is going to in my view, but I've

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Speaker 1: tried not to write about going to be even bigger,

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Speaker 1: and I segue into Europe, and then I'm gonna turn

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Speaker 1: to the audience. You and I Remunich a few weeks

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Speaker 1: ago for a conference. The outlook for Europe is pretty bleak,

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Speaker 1: given energy prices, potentially energy rationing, obviously a war on

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Speaker 1: the eastern periphery of the continent. Uh It's tough times

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Speaker 1: have had rates are going to have to go up

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Speaker 1: as well as as we've seen. How do you see Europe?

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Speaker 1: And throw awa In politics? We have had elections in Sweden,

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Speaker 1: We've had elections in Italy which have turned decidedly to

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Speaker 1: the right. Although we can debate about how right it

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Speaker 1: truly is, some of it is is less um, less

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Speaker 1: problematic than that. Maybe the headlines, how do you see

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Speaker 1: Europe given that we were just in Germany, Well, let's

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Speaker 1: go for the context and then think about the policy choices,

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Speaker 1: particularly central bank, we're going to have. They're going to

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Speaker 1: have a deep recession and it will uh um. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's much they can do about it,

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Speaker 1: because it's a real shock and they have obviously done

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Speaker 1: very very well, I think, probably as well as they

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Speaker 1: can to try and manage the gas situation, and nobody

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Speaker 1: knows how the well eyesactually don't know how this will

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Speaker 1: play out. But given what's happened to prices, share availabilities,

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Speaker 1: the industrial impact and so forth, it's going to be severe.

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Speaker 1: It's also going to be differentiated. This will be a

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Speaker 1: crisis in which Germany will be really seriously it it's

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Speaker 1: it's in the cockpit, as it were. Italy is also

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Speaker 1: very vulnerable because of its dependence on gas, Russian gas,

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Speaker 1: but it's worked quite hard to get to other supplies.

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Speaker 1: But it's clearly there's a big, huge, real shock, and

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Speaker 1: that follows the real shock of COVID, so that two

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Speaker 1: massive real shocks. That's the first point. The second point

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Speaker 1: is at the EU level, I would say, and include

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Speaker 1: the ECB here overall, the political response to these crises,

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Speaker 1: given that it has been so far remarkably good, by

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Speaker 1: and large, they managed this as well as you could

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Speaker 1: really imagined. Third point, however, is that the real tensions

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Speaker 1: I think are to come, and and they will come

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Speaker 1: in two directions, people and markets. The people level is

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Speaker 1: will people be willing to accept the policies on Ukraine

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Speaker 1: in the context of this, And the other point is

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Speaker 1: the CBS tank needs you say, there is going to

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Speaker 1: be immense political pressure, political pressure coming from the economics.

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Speaker 1: How is the new Italian government going to fare? And

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Speaker 1: is the ECB going to be able to stabilize those

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Speaker 1: debt markets? So there are huge questions about the future.

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Speaker 1: You will be excited to hear that I don't completely

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Speaker 1: agree with one of them. Normally I would match him,

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Speaker 1: you know, step for step down the dark alley of

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Speaker 1: pessimism and glue might be there. But although governments have

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Speaker 1: not been good at some things, these storage levels are

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Speaker 1: incredibly high. They have actually brought a lot of the

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Speaker 1: gas imports, all energy imports onstream faster than many people

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Speaker 1: expected a few months ago. Um, we are energy sort

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Speaker 1: of consultancy bit of Bloomberg. Beneft actually estimates that this

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Speaker 1: that the demand for energy for gas going into this

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Speaker 1: winter is running about seventeen percent below the five year average.

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Speaker 1: So you've seen quite a big demand response despite I

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Speaker 1: might say government's actually cushioning way too much of the

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Speaker 1: blow and not allowing perhaps enough of that to happen

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Speaker 1: with these massive fiscal programs of France and Germany. If

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Speaker 1: you have a reasonably mild winter that could actually mean

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Speaker 1: that prices fall quite dramatically, and then you get a

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Speaker 1: positive of reinforcing effect where that Europe is not having

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Speaker 1: to spend quite so much. Suddenly importing gas we think

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Speaker 1: at the moment it would have to be about five

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Speaker 1: percent of GDP, and that's one of the things that

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Speaker 1: squeezes the economy, pushes it into recession. So I do

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Speaker 1: think there is a possibility that in a few months

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Speaker 1: time we will sort of say, well, Europe's got too

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Speaker 1: much gas? How did that happen? It isn't our sort

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Speaker 1: of main scenario, but I think this is probably the

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Speaker 1: one area where I think the risks are potentially on

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Speaker 1: the upside. Where I agree with you is I think

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Speaker 1: there's the seeds of real solidarity issues. So the German plan,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to spend to underbillion. They always say

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Speaker 1: they're going to spend a lot of money, and then

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Speaker 1: in a sort of Germanic way, they find a way

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Speaker 1: to spend much less. We think it will be less

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Speaker 1: than that, But you are right that it sends the

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Speaker 1: French plan. The German plan sends a signal to send

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Speaker 1: released in Europe that they're willing to just spend all

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Speaker 1: It takes to cushion their households, and the countries that

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Speaker 1: are most affected that can't do that are sort of

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Speaker 1: left on the sideline. In Europe is important and if

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Speaker 1: you get a very hard winter, the question of sharing

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Speaker 1: of the available stock of gas becomes very critical. And

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Speaker 1: I think we don't have an answer to that, but

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Speaker 1: there is a possibility things will be back. Let's turn

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Speaker 1: to the audience. This gentleman right here, Thank you, Matthew

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Speaker 1: saw I f cum according to the sentatis are failing

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Speaker 1: quote in Bloomberg this past summer, supply factors account for

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Speaker 1: more than half of the current level of inflation. Housing

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Speaker 1: it painted because we hadn't invested enough in it. Supply

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Speaker 1: change are stretched because we hadn't invested enough in on

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Speaker 1: shore manufacturing energy. Yeah, there's a war to serve that

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Speaker 1: we need to invest more. Raising interest rates doesn't exactly

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Speaker 1: encourage an investment, in fact makes everything more expensive. So

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Speaker 1: do we actually have a death sparreal of inflation because

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Speaker 1: cental banks are using a wrong instrument for the job.

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Speaker 1: My view is a fairly simple one. To create a

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Speaker 1: lot of inflation, you need a lot of demand RelA

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Speaker 1: to supply, so uh, sort of pretty basic So if

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Speaker 1: supply was more constrained than we realized when the the boom,

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Speaker 1: when the recovery from COVID occurred, that was an argument

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Speaker 1: for having a greater demand contraction, not less because it

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Speaker 1: was constrained. So the basic logic of this just makes

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Speaker 1: no sense to me. That would be a case for

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Speaker 1: saying even more strongly what I thought that once it

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Speaker 1: was clear that we're going to have a very very

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Speaker 1: strong recovery, the unbelievably easy monetary policy of which I

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Speaker 1: wrote my first call, I'm worrying about inflation in made twenty,

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Speaker 1: combined with his massive fiscal expansion, was bound to be inflationary.

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Speaker 1: So once that stops and is halted, we would expect

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Speaker 1: inflation to fall a lot because those temper three factors go.

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Speaker 1: The energy scene is not temporary as far as I

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Speaker 1: can see. Well, if it's a permanent supply constraint on energy,

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Speaker 1: then that part of the story of what you have

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Speaker 1: to adjust to. But the problem is now, if you

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Speaker 1: look at inflation, core inflation is really quite high. It's

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Speaker 1: not just headline for the which is basically food, energy,

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Speaker 1: these elements, and core inflation is high because we've got

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Speaker 1: an overstressed. We've got an overstressed supplying situation worldwide. Demand

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Speaker 1: therefore has to be contained somewhat ideally in ways that

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Speaker 1: would allow investment to rise, which is why, coming back

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Speaker 1: to our earlier discussion, the fiscal monetary policy mix that

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Speaker 1: we are proposing in the UK is a gain nuts. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: my watch tells me it's time we've got to go.

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Speaker 1: Martin's new book, The Crisis Democratic Capitalism, will be out

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Speaker 1: January January m h. There's no subtler, no surer means

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Speaker 1: of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch

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Speaker 1: the currency, so wrote John Maynard Canes about inflation in

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Speaker 1: supposedly quoting Lenin in Latin America. Double digit inflation today

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Speaker 1: has started to undermine the rule of law in some countries,

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Speaker 1: and the argument over who's to blame for rising prices

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Speaker 1: has hit the streets. Here's Brazil economy reporter Maria Eloisa

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Speaker 1: Capro Mike at oil Way. Well, wait, eggs are the worst.

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Speaker 1: You have to be reached to buy them nowadays, a

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Speaker 1: millionaire even, that's my A shopper in the Columbia city

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Speaker 1: of Rio Ata, near the border of Venezuela, it's eggs, cheese.

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Speaker 1: I honestly don't see anything that's cheap in my consumption. Ambascue. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: she's three six and takes care of her father, and

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Speaker 1: she says that in order to do that, she will

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Speaker 1: need two million pastles just to barely get by on

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Speaker 1: a regular month. That's about four hundred U s dollars.

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Speaker 1: Eggs used to cost her five cents, but now Jave

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Speaker 1: doubling price, and eggs are just really one in a

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Speaker 1: number of basic food items that have gotten more expensive

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Speaker 1: in the last year. Milk went up thirty eight percent

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Speaker 1: and plantains sixty It's not just Colombia, It's happening all

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Speaker 1: across Latin America. High inflation is widening the gap between

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Speaker 1: the reach and the poor in the most unequal region

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Speaker 1: in the world. At least one third of the population

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Speaker 1: in Latin America we'll meet the criteria for being poor,

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Speaker 1: and if some estimates are true, they will face an

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Speaker 1: inflation rate that is a full percentage point higher than

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Speaker 1: that of the rich. To paint from inflation is appending

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Speaker 1: politics in this region of the world, and politicians who

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Speaker 1: want sustain power are raising to find ways to help

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Speaker 1: their constituents pay for the gas and groceries. In Colombia,

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Speaker 1: Maria ellis that woman who struggles to buy X. She

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Speaker 1: voted for Gustavo Petro, who got elected this year as

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Speaker 1: the first left wing leader in the country's history. She

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Speaker 1: believed things would change under Petro and welfare benefits would increase,

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Speaker 1: but inflation remains her main concern. And that's because inflation

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Speaker 1: is above twelve percent for the poor and the vulnerable,

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Speaker 1: but it remains at single digits for the rich. Their

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Speaker 1: vulnerable spend more of their consumption budget in food staples

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Speaker 1: just at that time when inflation is driven by food,

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Speaker 1: so that makes inflation higher for them. In Brazil, inflation

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Speaker 1: for the poorest he had two digits months before he

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Speaker 1: did so for the rich. Now, consumer prices are falling

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Speaker 1: for everyone, but mostly on the back of recent tax cuts.

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Speaker 1: Us un Nestor levision, head economists for Latin America at

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Speaker 1: City Group. This round of inflation is even more handful

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Speaker 1: for poverty levels and income distribution because it's affecting food

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Speaker 1: prices and in the initial stages energy prices such as

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Speaker 1: gasoline and electricity, so the day to day lives of

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Speaker 1: consumers is more difficult. Petro's government might now need to

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Speaker 1: cut long standing self service that helped lower gasoline prices

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Speaker 1: in order to free up money to make higher welfare

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Speaker 1: payments to the poor, and with that his risking products

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Speaker 1: from drivers, trackers and many of his own borders. How

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Speaker 1: to ease the pain from inflation without breaking the anc

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Speaker 1: is a lement that many other governments in the region face,

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Speaker 1: and it's grabbing the attention of world leaders. Protesters block

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Speaker 1: high winds in Panama, Strikers in Peu demanded state health

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Speaker 1: for the poor. Riots broken equal or oversawing costs of living.

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Speaker 1: Peu and Chile opted for radical change of government as

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Speaker 1: the pandemic students long standing inequalities. Here's revision again. If

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Speaker 1: we consider that there was already discontent in Latin America

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Speaker 1: since two thousand nineteen and before, and we put on

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Speaker 1: top of that the worst economic crisis in the Depression

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Speaker 1: and a very unequal health crisis with COVID nineteen, the

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Speaker 1: probabilities of unrest are clearly increasing. President andress Manuel Lopez

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Speaker 1: of Radar has managed to keep his approving ratings above

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Speaker 1: despite high inflation, and that's because his convinced borders that

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Speaker 1: things would be worse without him. The key might very

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Speaker 1: well be at twenty two million package of gasoline subsidies

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Speaker 1: and social programs that reached many voters, but in parts

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Speaker 1: of Mexico like the middle class and industrial areas, his

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Speaker 1: enchantment is well enough for now. Mexican hardware store owner

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Speaker 1: Causes Avala remains undecided, but my stick with Lopezo Rador,

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Speaker 1: who's also known by his initials Ect. We talked about

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Speaker 1: how expensive things are. Everything is going up. Vegetables, chicken, meat,

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Speaker 1: it is really expensive and that takes a towel in

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Speaker 1: my budget. It's too expensive. Milk, bread, it's really expensive.

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Speaker 1: Savalis a widower and has his daughter and grand daughter

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Speaker 1: to take care of, and though he is stressed all politicians,

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Speaker 1: he still says that Amlo wanted to change things. Next

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Speaker 1: year the elections for governing his state, an Amblos party

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Speaker 1: might have a voter in Savanah. We complain about how

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Speaker 1: expensive things are, but it's only that and why I

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Speaker 1: don't really know. I don't really know to tell you

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Speaker 1: the truth. But everything is more expensive now in Brazil.

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Speaker 1: In fusion is one of the main things in the

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Speaker 1: presidential rates. Here's an ad from former president Listen Silva,

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Speaker 1: who's trying to secure his comeback to the presidency, that

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Speaker 1: Fili under Lula, families were able to buy much cheaper

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Speaker 1: food staples, but under Boso minimum wages barely afford the

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Speaker 1: basic consumption basket. Lula is trying to remind borders that

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Speaker 1: their purchasing power was higher under his presidency. It could

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Speaker 1: be working. On the first round of the presidential election,

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Speaker 1: he got forty eight percent of the votes and he's

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Speaker 1: headed to a runoff as the favorite candidate. The incumbent

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Speaker 1: Jaibelsonato had a later wakened too inflation problem. I'm back.

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Speaker 1: In July, he pushed for a multivillion social program that

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Speaker 1: included gasoline tact cuts and boosted paychecks to the poor.

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Speaker 1: Bosonato plans to keep throwing money at the problem. He's

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Speaker 1: promising more social spending to improve his standing ahead of

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Speaker 1: the runoff. As politicians from Mexico to Chile worked to

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Speaker 1: prevent unrest among their citizens, Latin America is proving how

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Speaker 1: high prices of eggs, cheese, and gasoline can distrut politics.

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Speaker 1: For Bloomber News from Brazilia, this is Mariello. Now there's

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Speaker 1: an event starting next week in Beijing, which is almost

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Speaker 1: certainly going to be more important for the future of

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Speaker 1: the global economy than this week's i am f from

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Speaker 1: World Bank meetings, But it's also a much tougher gig

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Speaker 1: for journalists to cover, especially foreign ones. The meeting in

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Speaker 1: question is the Chinese Communist Party Congress, which happens only

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Speaker 1: once every five years, and this year is being built

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Speaker 1: as a critical test of President Chi Jingping's hold on

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Speaker 1: the party and the future direction of China. Well Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Government reporter Colin Murphy is one of those benighted foreign

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Speaker 1: journalists in Beijing who will be trying to cover the congress. Column.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for for coming on Stephanomics your debut.

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Speaker 1: This is a party congress, now, obviously. I mean in

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Speaker 1: the UK we've just had these annual conference is of

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Speaker 1: the major political parties. In fact, we had to report

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Speaker 1: the other day from the Conservative miserable Conservative Party one.

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Speaker 1: And I guess if you had those words in the US,

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Speaker 1: you might think of the party conventions that you have

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Speaker 1: in the summer before a presidential election. But this Chinese

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Speaker 1: Party Congress isn't anything like any of those, is it

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Speaker 1: not at all? It's first of all once every five years,

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Speaker 1: and the scale is quite impressive. There's more than like

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Speaker 1: two thousand delegates will descend on the Great Hall of

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Speaker 1: the People in Beijing, and basically it's it's a lot

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Speaker 1: of theater, it's a lot of you know, reinforcing how

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Speaker 1: China's Communist Party has succeeded over the past five years

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Speaker 1: and why it is necessary that China maintains the Communist

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Speaker 1: Party going forward. So it will be a lot of

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Speaker 1: looking back on achievements and also pointing towards the future.

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Speaker 1: Just to sort of think about it from your perspective,

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Speaker 1: what will you be able to cover and how challenging

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Speaker 1: do you think it will be. Yeah, it's it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a sort of paradox in a way

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Speaker 1: because you know, this is a major milestone and in

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Speaker 1: terms of reporting assignment in China, it's one of the events.

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Speaker 1: But even though this is the case, the reality is

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Speaker 1: that our access to the event is very limited. Regardless

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Speaker 1: of whether we're they're in person or not. Access to

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Speaker 1: the actual delegates and to the leaders is you know, minimal,

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Speaker 1: in fact non existent, I would say, but I would say,

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Speaker 1: you know, access is is not just an issue for

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Speaker 1: the Congress itself. It's also an issue generally being a

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Speaker 1: foreign reporter in China, and it's one that's got increasingly

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Speaker 1: harder and more more constrained in the past two to

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Speaker 1: three years. So for example, you know, speaking to officials

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Speaker 1: or even academics at universities, which for reporters, you know,

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Speaker 1: it tends to be kind of a low hanging food.

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Speaker 1: If you want to get an expert quote, you ring

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Speaker 1: up a university and and and they you know, talk

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Speaker 1: to an expert. Even something like that has become increasingly difficult.

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Speaker 1: In the end, if you're lucky, they will come back

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Speaker 1: to you and say no, we can do the interview.

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Speaker 1: So so that's that's definitely an aspect. And of course,

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Speaker 1: you know, this also extends to the broader Chinese society

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Speaker 1: because there has been this pronounced demonization of foreign journalists

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Speaker 1: in China through the state media propaganda. When we go

431
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: out in the field, it can become a security issue.

432
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: People can get um, you know, quite sort of aggressive

433
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: in trying to stop people from reporting. So just going

434
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: back to the convention, I mean, I'll be watching video

435
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: of that and then or you're on the sidelines trying

436
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: to talk to people. I'm just trying to get a

437
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: sense of how you physically report it. So it will

438
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: depend on the event sort of. The main opening event

439
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: will take place on October sixte and that will be

440
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: in the Rate Hall of the People, which of course

441
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: is this massive structure in the center of Beijing just

442
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: off Tianamen Square. Most likely what will happen is that

443
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: we will be sent into quarantine a couple of days

444
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: in advance to a hotel. Uh. Then we will be

445
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: transported by a bus from the hotel to Tianamen Square.

446
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: They'll bring us up to one of the higher galleries

447
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: and there'll be rows upon rows of delegates and probably

448
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 1: up on the front there will be a dias with

449
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: you know, the leaders. And at that event, President Seating

450
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: Pain will will give a work report, a long speech

451
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: which can go on for anything up to three hours um.

452
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: And I guess what I'll be looking out for in

453
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: that capacity obviously will be following the speech as closely

454
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: as possible, but also looking for any sort of um,

455
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: you know, color that we might see on the day.

456
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: What's the reaction from the audience, what's the degree of applause,

457
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 1: which which part of the speech got more attend mention. Uh,

458
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 1: you know, was there music playing, so on and so forth.

459
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 1: So basically just trying to capture at that moment there

460
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: might be some hiccup which you cannot rely on the

461
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: TV feed for so I would say, you know, depending

462
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: on the reporter that you ask. I personally am quite

463
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: excited about sitting through three hours. I do think it's

464
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: a historic event. You're really selling anyone who was wondering

465
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: whether or not to be a foreign correspondent in Beijing. Gosh,

466
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: you're making it sounds so good. Yeah, it is a

467
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: little bit. It's a bit sad in the way that,

468
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: you know, the access on the ground, which is the

469
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: whole purpose of being a foreign correspondent, is it's curtailed.

470
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 1: But you cannot replace the fact that we are on

471
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,719
Speaker 1: the ground in Beijing, that we we do have access

472
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: to at least the pageantry, but also talking to people

473
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: who live in the city and listening to the conversations

474
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: around the congress, and much of that is actually related

475
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: to COVID these days. And we do know, we I mean,

476
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: we do know that it has hurt hurt the economy,

477
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: and I'm interested. Um, as you say, people waiting to

478
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: see once this congress is over, whether the government's going

479
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: to be willing to start living with a bit of COVID.

480
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: And there's been some talk online about discontent with the

481
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: policy perculating up through social media and accidents of involving

482
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: bus loads of people being taken into quarantine and then

483
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: being complaints about that. I mean, would you say that

484
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: there's been an uptick in in sort of visible opposition,

485
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: you know, by by the standards of communist controlled China, definitely, um,

486
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,719
Speaker 1: I would say that the more and more people are

487
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: expressing dissatisfaction with COVID zero, there is definitely more voices

488
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: coming out complaining about COVID. We only see these sort

489
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: of protests in in in pockets at a very extreme moment.

490
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 1: So for example, during the two months lockdown in Shanghai,

491
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: we had a couple of protests, and then there was,

492
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 1: of course, as you mentioned, that bus tragedy where a

493
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 1: couple of dozen of people were killed being transported to

494
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 1: a quarantine center. And all of these acts sort of

495
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: like flashpoints where you have a bubbling up of of

496
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: sentiment and people become quite vocal or expressive on social media,

497
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: but they tend to die down. So all said, the

498
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: answer is yes, there's an uptick in frustration with COVID.

499
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: Whether that would influence any government decision is the next question,

500
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: and it's unlikely that there will be any major changes.

501
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,719
Speaker 1: What we might see is some sort of incremental uh

502
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: you know, small measures being relaxed here and there. But overall,

503
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: the direction of COVID zero still looks like it's it's

504
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: going to be in place for some time to come.

505
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: People who have heard about this Congress will have heard

506
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: that it's very important for s Jing Ping seal his

507
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: position potentially as president for life, certainly for a for

508
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: a third term. What should we watch for first signs

509
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: that it's been more or less successful for him? Relatively? Right?

510
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: Um So, yes, I would say that what I'll be

511
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 1: looking out for anyway in the coming weeks will be

512
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: the combination of the Politburea Standing Committee. Right, so, this

513
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: is the top group of leaders. We will be looking

514
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: very very closely to see who exactly all of them

515
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 1: wearing the same suits, probably and probably all men as well,

516
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: I will add, um So, that will happen roughly around

517
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: one week after the opening ceremony. We will they will

518
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 1: be paraded out and they'll come out in order, and

519
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: then we will all be jumping on that because we

520
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: want to know how many people on that Standing committee

521
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: have an association which she are considered to be part

522
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: of his, his, his, his group. We'll also be looking

523
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: at like what sort of backgrounds they have, what expertise

524
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 1: they have, are they more ideological or are the technocrats

525
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 1: and so on and support. So that's basically the key thing,

526
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: I would say, But we'll also be looking for things

527
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: that sort of indicate either a consolidation or an elevation

528
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: of she's stature. And one of the things might be

529
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: like what sort of titles he might get in the process.

530
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: So one of the titles might be People's Leader, which

531
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: would be a sort of an elevation or a confirmation

532
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: of of his sort of supreme importance to the party.

533
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: These are a whole combination of things that we'll be

534
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 1: looking for, but obviously to get to the specifics of

535
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 1: the policies, we'll have to wait until next spring, when

536
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 1: the MPC takes place in March. Usually in March in Beijing,

537
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 1: that's where we start to see more granular details emerge,

538
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: and also that's the time where she will actually get

539
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 1: the title of present, that's it for Stephanomics. We'll have

540
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 1: more on China next week and who knows what else

541
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: in the meantime. Do please rate the show and check

542
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: out the Bloomberg News website for more economic news and

543
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: views on the global economy. Who should also follow at

544
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: economics on Twitter. This episode was produced by Summer Sadi

545
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: Yang Yang and Magnus Hendrickson. May ir Back and Matthew

546
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: Bristow helped with the reporting of that Latin American inflation story.

547
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: Special thanks also to Martin Wolf, Tim Adams, Maria Aloisa Gaborro,

548
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: Daniel Cavallo, is Adora, Colombia, and Callum Murphy. Mike Sasso

549
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: is the executive producer of Stephanomics. This episode has been

550
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: corrected just to accurately identify Christine Naggeva, the managing director

551
00:35:52,480 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: of the imf ST