WEBVTT - COP29's last-minute deal is a miracle and a mess 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:00.880 Welcome to Zero. 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:05.640 I am Ukshatarti and I'm Michaelerel. This week COP twenty nine, 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:07.160 Big Messy Deal. 0:00:19.520 --> 0:00:19.720 Chat. 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.360 COP twenty nine is over and we have a deal. 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:24.599 I was only there for the first week, so I've 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:27.840 had a week to recover. But you've come straight to 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:29.880 the studio directly from the airport. 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:35.279 How the heck are you exhausted? But we know this 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:37.840 is how it ends. This is my fourth COP, so 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.800 I was a little bit prepared that we're going to 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.680 have an all nighter and we're going to be waiting 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:46.479 for a bit, and we're going to be chasing for 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:50.640 quite a bit, and we don't know how it ends. 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.560 We are going to have to pick the pieces once 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:58.800 everything is done. Seems there was at least a big deal, 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:02.240 but not as much progress as people had hoped. 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:04.640 We're going to get into the specifics of what's in 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:08.240 that deal and whether it's a good deal. But first 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:10.479 I think it's worth returning to the question we laid 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.240 out on the very first day of the conference about 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:15.600 whether Iserbaijan was going to be up to the task 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.440 of leading this summer in the first place. This was 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:20.720 my first COP and there was a lot that impressed 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:23.880 me about how things were run in Baku. Things went 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.080 smoothly at the venue. The shuttle buses to and from 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:31.640 the Baku Olympic Stadium were very punctual. Things seemed organized, 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:35.240 pretty reliable. The city seemed ready for this influx of visitors. 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:39.440 The tourist district of Old City Baku is very charming, 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:44.080 ready for people. Overall, how would you rate Iserbaijan's performance 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:45.479 this cop, You're. 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:49.320 Right, the logistics were better than most cops. It is 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:52.720 not easy to suddenly have an influx of fifty thousand 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:55.800 people who are all waying to the same place and 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.040 are there for official business, and so they have very 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:01.040 little time and just need to get on with things. 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:05.520 And Azerbaijan was able to pull that off. But we 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.800 also found out that because it's an authoritarian government, they 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:12.000 could do a lot to make this happen. Baku's traffic 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:15.400 is pretty infamous, and we didn't really experience much of 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:19.840 it because they'd shut down schools and universities, asked most 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:22.880 of their government employees to work from home. They had 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:26.520 cleared up street vendors. They'd shut down these so called 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:31.000 slave markets where mostly men show up for informal work, 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.760 and there were no beggars to be seen, which are 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.560 supposed to be a regular part of being in Baku. 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.480 So you have to note that for the visitors it 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:44.240 wasn't what Baku usually is. But yes, it did make 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:45.840 the COP work better. 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:48.880 So that was the experience for people In terms of 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:51.160 interacting with the city, it was very seamless. But what 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.440 about actually when it came time to negotiate and get 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:56.440 things past. 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:01.200 There were a lot of complaints about the presidency, Mukhtar Babayev, 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:04.720 who had never been much of a presence at COP 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:08.880 meetings before and had never taken on a job of 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:12.120 this level. And of course he had, you know, ten 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:14.960 months to prepare, and he got plenty of advice. As 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:19.080 we've learned, companies like Deloitte were involved in providing advice, 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.480 but also past COP presidents and their teams were involved. 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:30.160 And yet during these sophisticated, delicate negotiations between two hundred parties, 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:34.560 there is a level of forthrightness. There's a level of 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:38.200 preparedness that a presidency needs to come in with and 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.160 that was lacking and it really showed up towards the 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:44.200 second week when the deal had to be done, and 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:46.960 the documents had to come in time, but they were late, 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:51.120 and the ingredients in those documents over things that people 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:54.560 would agree or disagree were all over the place. And 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:57.360 it did seem like on Saturday, which was twenty four 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:01.600 hours later than the official deadline of hop that things 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.240 might just not fall in place and there might be 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.839 no deal, and some of that blame would have been 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:09.840 put on the presidency itself. 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:12.560 All the more difficult because we knew this was the 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.680 finance cop Matt alone was going to make it hard 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:18.240 because it's one thing to agree on some ideas on 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.800 the abstract. It's another thing to agree to pay to 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:25.520 cough up the bill. And there were two big things 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:28.159 on the table. One of them was the NCQG, the 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:32.840 new Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance, the big sum 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:36.440 that rich countries would have to commit to. Let's start 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:37.280 with that. 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:41.000 That's right. Coming in. We had a lot of different 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:44.480 analyzes looking at just how much money this is going 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:47.960 to be, how much can developing countries get from developed countries. 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:50.839 And when we were on the ground, we got a 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:54.680 chance to speak to developed countries and developing countries. So 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:56.880 take a listen to one person we spoke to who 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:01.000 is moment Khlored, Minister of Energy and Oil for Mauritania, 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:02.600 one of the world's porest countries. 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:06.080 I think the main issue for Africa is financing to 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:09.360 mitigate the impact of the climate change we get to 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:14.479 hit because of the climate change. If look even at Mauritania, 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:18.360 we have inundation now, we have a lot of rain, desertification, 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:21.480 a lot of issues is causing a lot of problem. 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:26.000 So I think we need to find a financial model 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:31.440 where Africa can be financed to electrify, to improve the 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:34.720 skills of its workforce, to cope with the migration of 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:39.720 people from the desert to the cities. So this is 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.039 really what's needed to be looked at right now. 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:45.720 So he was really clear that the financing number was 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:48.480 going to make a big difference for him in terms 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:51.960 of what his country could do to elevate its standard 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:55.000 of living and move towards a green future, and. 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:56.880 That money had to come from develop countries. And we 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:59.920 got a chance to interview the Prime Minister of then 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:04.560 Mark Meta Frederickson. Denmark has been historically a country that 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.839 has been quite climbed forward, but when it comes to 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:11.240 hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars. Even they will 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.760 have to figure out how exactly they will deliver that. 0:06:14.880 --> 0:06:18.920 Some goals and targets are one thing, but delivering is 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:23.440 the next. Of course, a country like Denmark should deliver. 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:27.719 We are pushing for ambitious target, but we also have 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.679 to discuss who are going to contribute to this because 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:36.640 it for me, I am totally convinced that a country 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:40.680 like Denmark should participate and support this, but I think 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:45.840 some of the new strong economies to participate, for example China, 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:47.320 but also the Golf States. 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:49.919 So those are the stakes of why this money was 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:54.919 so important and why even countries who want to support 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:58.239 these ideas would have some concerns about the final price tag. 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:00.000 What was the final price tag? 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:04.480 Three hundred billion dollars annually. It will be delivered by 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.479 twenty thirty five and will be ramped up from current 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:11.760 levels of one hundred billion dollars annually. Now, if you 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:16.440 just took inflation between now and twenty thirty five, that 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:19.440 will already cause the two hundred billion dollars to be 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:23.640 just worth one hundred billion dollars today. So three hundred 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:26.560 billion by that time is in upgrade. But it's not 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.920 that huge a leap, and so there were lots of 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:33.240 complaints from developing countries that this sum is too low, 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:37.720 that how exactly this sum will be counted, and where 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.600 will this money flow is still not clear and that's 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:43.520 not good enough. But on the flip side, you had 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.600 developed countries, many of which, as we've seen in this 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:50.440 year of elections, have taken a right word turn, are 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:56.120 looking inward rather than outward, who have budgets that are constrained, 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:59.320 that are not willing to put anymore. So it was 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:02.080 kind of a mine that even a larger sum was 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:05.880 agreed upon and as we saw it really could have 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:07.040 all fallen apart. 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:09.760 So there was a deal, but it was hard fought 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:11.760 with a lot of trauma. Again, it was back in 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.360 London by the time all this was going down, but 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.960 my WhatsApp was exploding with hundreds of messages from the 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:21.960 Bloomberg Climate team through every twist and turn on the plenary. 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.040 Yes, it was quite something. This is my fourth cop 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:29.040 and we typically expect some fireworks to happen at the plenary, 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:32.600 just like last minute tweeks in Glasgow. We had a 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.480 phase down versus phase out fight in India and China 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.920 were against the US and Europe and we expected nothing 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:43.200 less here. Given this has been labeled the hardest COPS 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:48.439 since Paris. What happened is that typically at the end 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:51.880 of the COP it's a consensus, which means you, as 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:55.440 the president, say to the parties, we are going to 0:08:55.520 --> 0:09:00.120 be adopting this. Does anybody have any objections and if not, 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:03.199 then the president can gabble it down and it's done. 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:07.880 But consensus is not unanimity. The president has powers to 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:13.600 overcome objections because Saudi Arabia has blocked voting rules at 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:18.200 COP meetings and that gives the president powers to overrule objections. 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.880 And in this case it's not clear, but as soon 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:26.400 as the finance deal was put forward for adoption and 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:30.080 question about objections was asked. Very soon after that, the 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:34.480 gavel went down and India immediately started waving their hands 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:38.079 calling for a time out. They rushed onto the stage 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:41.959 or talked to the president. They came back and afterwards 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:44.160 they got a chance to speak and they said, we 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.280 are unhappy with this process. This has been a stage 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:48.360 managed process. 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:54.480 This has been stage managed and we are extremely, extremely 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.760 disappointed with this incident. 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.960 It was perhaps one of the strongest pushbacks I've heard 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:08.480 from a country at a COP meeting. Now, just so 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:11.120 that we are clear, there's a technical reason why India 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:14.040 was opposing the deal. In the current hundred billion dollars, 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:17.400 there is a contribution from multilateral development banks such as 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:21.760 World Bank or IMF that is counted towards climate finance. 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:25.600 Because these institutions put about fifty percent of their lending 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:29.600 into climate projects, about fifty percent of their shareholding is 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:33.760 rich countries, so that shareholding's contribution is counted towards the 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:37.440 climate finance goal. Going into this three hundred billion dollar figure, 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:41.320 Developed countries wanted to count all of the shareholders in 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:45.040 that goal, which would mean countries like China and India 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:48.160 that do have shareholding in World Bank and IMF will 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.120 also have their number counted towards the three hundred billion. 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.360 From an Indian perspective, that would make rich countries less 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:59.760 responsible towards the three hundred billion, because India's contributions are 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:03.160 being hunted and they did not want that. But the 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:05.760 deal has been done and India will have to live 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.760 with it, and we'll see how this fight shakes out 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:13.199 and whether the trust in the process that is so 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.920 crucial to keep two hundred countries together remains as we 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:18.640 go into Bellham in Brazil. 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:22.320 Okay, so that was the NCQG. The other thing that 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.760 we knew to keep an eye on was Article six, 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:29.160 which talks about carbon markets, and some serious details needed 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.400 to be ironed out on that. Where did things land there. 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:34.520 I was in the plenary hall when the Article six 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.880 got gabled through by the President and there were quite 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:42.480 a lot of cheers. One observer said, probably because they 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.520 are happy they're never going to have to hear about 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:45.520 Article six again. 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.720 And clearly people throughout the week kept saying, we've been 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.120 talking about this for nine years, but you were saying 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:52.280 it's even more than nine years. 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:54.840 Yeah, I mean the idea of carbon markets have been 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:56.840 around for a long time. In the nineties, we had 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:59.320 the CUTA Protocol, as we've discussed on the part before 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:01.840 and then, and Article six were supposed to be an 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:05.760 upgrade to that, and yes, it got done, but there 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:09.160 are still plenty of issues that remain. There are questions 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:11.840 around the integrity of the credits that will be traded. 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:15.440 There are questions about these new types of markets that 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.880 would be operating between two countries. So Switzerland can make 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.960 a deal with Ghana and maybe no third party verifies 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.920 what that deal is. So we'll see how things shake out. 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.120 You know, people have been talking and talking about Article 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.480 six for more than a decade. Now these rules have 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:33.360 been agreed on. They will have to be modified and 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.720 tweaked if they're not working, if countries are not trading 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.240 as you want, if the emissions reductions are not real. 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.640 And those who were cheering that we will hear less 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:45.760 about Article six, I'm afraid we are going to hear 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:46.719 a lot more about it. 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:49.240 So we talked about what was in the deal, but 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.040 what was not in the deal, what was conspicuously missing. 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.760 Well, there was another piece of text that was called 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.320 the Global Stock Take, which is basically the exercise that 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:03.559 happened Dubai looking at what was the progress countries had 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.640 made between the Paris Agreement in twenty fifteen and Dubai. 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.600 And obviously we know that progress wasn't enough, but it 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:13.720 was actually a numerical activity to find out just how 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:17.360 far behind countries are and then take actions to try 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.360 and improve on those numbers. That's where we got the 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:24.200 phrase transitioning away from fossil fuels, and there was supposed 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:28.000 to be a document that said we are going to 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.840 reaffirm what we agreed on at COP twenty eight, and 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.680 we will go further and transition away from fossil fuels 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.640 and put those into the national climate plans that are 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:40.720 supposed to be submitted over the next few months. That document, 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.520 in the end did not get the support of all countries, 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:47.560 and it has now been postponed for discussion at the 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:48.199 next COP. 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:51.720 It seems like a bit of a step backwards because 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.280 last COP, as I understand it, one big breakthrough, one 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.079 big headline, was this consensus around the need to transition 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.520 away from fossil fuels right correct. 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.800 What we've seen is that one actor among a few, 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:11.200 has been really pushing heart names well, Saudi Arabia because 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:15.520 we reported that in our stories, has been pushing hard 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.960 to erase any mention of fossil fuels in not just 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:22.760 COP meetings but many international forums like the G twenty 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:26.920 and it has had a lot of success because it 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.040 just doesn't want people to be talking about transitioning away 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.080 from fossil fuels, and the science is very clear. If 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.560 you've signed on to the Paras Agreement goals of keeping 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.480 temperature targets to one point five or two degree celsius. 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.920 You are going to have to reduce your use of 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:46.200 fossil fuels. But saying it out loud is clearly irking 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:48.880 Saudi Arabia and they don't want people to be saying it. 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.240 And we are going to see that fight play out 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:52.440 again at the next come. 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.240 After the break, we turned to the question of one 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.720 point five celsius and some other unfinished business left for 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.400 Cop thirty. And if you've been enjoying this episode, please 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.240 take a moment to rate and review the show on 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.560 Spotify or Apple. It helps other listeners find the show. 0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:21.200 There's another thing that I heard a lot of discussion 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.040 of in that first week, and I know carried on 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.400 through the second week, which is the question of one 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.560 point five c That's the level of warming the world 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.400 has been trying to keep under. That's been sort of 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.360 the target, the point we don't want to surpass. The 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.840 feasibility of that figure has been in question for some time. 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:41.680 There's one quote that caught my eye from Panama Special 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:46.320 Representative for Climate Change one, Carlos Monterrey Gomez, and he 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.600 said we needed to leave Baku with an agreement to 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:52.360 keep the multilateral system alive. We kept the system alive, 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.840 But I think one point five is dead after this 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.800 COP is one point five C a number we should 0:15:58.800 --> 0:15:59.640 still be talking about. 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:03.320 So this year is likely to be the first year 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.200 where temperatures are going to be, on average more than 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:10.560 one point five degrees celsius relative to pre industrial levels. 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.400 Now that is not the parish target. The parish target 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:17.080 is a long term average of staying above one point 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:20.960 five degrees celsius. But scientists are clear that we are 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.720 likely to surpass that too. Now within the Paris Agreement, 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:27.120 there is a chance that you could go about one 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.960 point five degree celsius and then come back down by 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.720 drawing down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere technically feasible but 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.960 very expensive. So yes, as a target that we should 0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.720 not breach, one point five C is likely dead because 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:44.080 we will breach it. But the long term target of 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:46.160 actually bringing it back down to one point five C 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.440 isn't dead. And that's the thing that we heard again 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:53.120 and again from island states at COP twenty nine. For them, 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.160 one point five CE they call it a death sentence 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:59.600 because sea levels will rise, their homes will be inundated. 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.520 They won't have places to go to. They're going to 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:06.479 end up without homes, and so they are not willing 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:09.120 to move away from this target. This is the thing 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:11.760 they will keep pushing on, and from the rest of 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.359 the world's perspective, it still makes sense to try and 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.400 avoid every point one degree celsius of warming that you can. 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:19.760 So one point five CREE is likely to remain as 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:22.720 a rallying cry, and the world will need to try 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.560 to do as much as possible to avoid the worst impacts. 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:28.879 COP kicked off just a couple of days after the 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.320 US election, as we've talked about in a couple of 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:34.399 past episodes, and in the first days we were in Baku, 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.080 we had a chance to catch up with Indonesia's Special 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:41.040 Presidential Envoy, Hashim Joyohadi Kusumo, and he had something interesting 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:41.480 to say. 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:43.920 I'm a bit wary, frankly, because of the change of 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.840 government in the United States. I was in Marrakesh, you know, 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.879 in twenty sixteen. I remember what happened. I mean, I 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:53.480 detect the same sort of atmosphere for voting. I hope 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.760 we can work things out between the parties, but we 0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.000 have to be wary, and I think everybody in this 0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:00.760 conference is weary, I think. 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:02.919 And I think he was onto something, because we did 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:06.880 see flickers of chaos. At one point Argentina pulled negotiators 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.080 out of COP twenty nine, and there was a risk 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:12.880 that Argentina might also quit the Paris Agreement, as Donald 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:17.600 Trump has said the US will do so. But towards 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:20.560 the second week things come down a little bit. Argentina 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:22.760 said they are not going to quit the Paris Agreement. 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.199 We had Russia come out and say that actually, the 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.520 US shouldn't leave the Paris Agreement, a twist I did 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:32.840 not see coming. And we did get a deal done. 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.080 And that deal happened despite many veterans of COP like 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:40.160 John Kerry in the United States, Shia Genoa in China 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:44.560 not being present, to not have those experienced hands guiding 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.240 the negotiations toward the end, the fact that we got 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:52.080 a deal done is a big deal, and it shows 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.560 that the US, as much as it's a big power 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.280 in the world, it's only twelve percent of global emissions, 0:18:57.560 --> 0:18:59.920 and the rest of the world still cares about haak 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.280 climate change and they do want to get on with 0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:02.640 the job. 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:07.159 So Trump's election had somewhat of a limited impact but 0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:12.159 I did feel the geopolitics of this conference was very heavy, 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:15.240 pretty unescapable. Even in the run up to things, when 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.439 we were reaching out to heads of state trying to 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:20.120 figure out who we might talk to in Baku, we 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.080 heard from many countries like, oh, sorry, our plans are 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.280 in flux because there's an election on the horizon. We 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.679 heard that from Ireland, we heard that from Japan. This 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.480 was a big election year around the world, a lot 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:34.200 of turmoil, and we saw a lot of incumbents doing poorly, 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:38.119 a populist message resonating, a right word shift in a 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:42.960 lot of major governments. How did all of that show 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:46.119 up in your mind in those two weeks in Baku. 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:52.200 Given climate is a decadal challenge, political swings are power 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:56.320 for the course. We know that right word shifts have 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.280 happened in the past and climate action has continued despite it, 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.159 but you're right, this moment feels more strenuous than it 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:06.560 has in recent years. We got a chance to speak 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:10.760 to Sophie Hermann's who is the Climate Minister of the Netherlands, 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:14.840 and it gave us a sense of what a place 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:18.600 that has seen a right word shift can do on climate. 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:25.080 Because Sophie now represents a four party coalition. Two of 0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:27.880 those parties do not want to do anything on climate 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:30.800 and to want to and they have to come to 0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:33.879 this grand compromise to try and figure out how they'll 0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:38.320 meet their legally mandated climate goals, sit within the European Union, 0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:42.840 which has very ambitious climate targets, and make them all 0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:46.920 work despite the political shift. Here's what Sophie had to say. 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.760 Well, in this coalition, we agreed that what we stated 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:53.560 in our law at the twenty thirty target but also 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:57.439 the twenty fifty targets, it's non negotiable. That's what we 0:20:57.480 --> 0:20:59.800 are going to do and what we have to achieve. 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.960 So there's no discussion about it, and now we have 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:05.919 the discussion of how to achieve it. 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:09.000 So the theme seems to be it's very messy, but 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:13.600 on we go, and that messiness wasn't just about politics 0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:17.840 and elections, but also about several wars that continue even 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:20.919 as these talks played out. It was striking to go 0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:24.360 visit the Russia Pavilion with its life size Motroit cadals, 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.400 and then right around the corner was the Ukraine Pavilion, 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:32.400 which also had a very elaborate showing with these biodegradable 0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:38.400 walls covered with seeds. Both countries quite engaged in the process, 0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:41.240 even as they are also engaged in a war. 0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:44.479 And it's not just Russia and Ukraine. We caught up 0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:48.879 with the climaton way of Israel. Gideon Behar and I 0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:52.760 asked him, how do you think about climate change when 0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:56.719 there is a war happening? And how do you compare 0:21:56.760 --> 0:21:59.800 the timelines on which these two crises have to be 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.080 How are you going to agree with people you are 0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:03.600 at war with. 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:08.119 Well, you know, the climate crisis is impacting all of 0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:12.040 us and it's a danger for humanity at all. So 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:16.040 we really have to come to a consensus. And Israel 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:19.760 is here because Israel is part of the international community. 0:22:20.720 --> 0:22:25.000 Israel is a dedicated member trying to make its contribution 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:30.880 to solve the climate crisis. And we are here, so 0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:33.200 we will be part of a consensus. 0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:36.720 And we did get ideal, and we shouldn't take that 0:22:36.760 --> 0:22:40.800 for granted. The multilateral process is a delicate one and 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.040