1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: So if I want to ask you four questions at 2 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: one time, so I'll get some high second, Wait a second, 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: some high level some high level information, high level information. 4 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 2: Going back to this banking stuff. 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: So when we're when we're looking at a bank, right, 6 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,639 Speaker 1: there's a couple of different factors that go into play 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: in the in the banking system. And let's really break 8 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: this down. So let's start with net interest margins. Okay, 9 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: what's the deal with that? 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 3: All right? 11 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 4: The one metric that's most important to banks is net 12 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 4: interest margins. That's the difference between the money they lend out, 13 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 4: the money they take in and the money they lend out. 14 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 4: That's their banking profit so to speak. So in normal 15 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 4: times and any earning season, we got earnings coming up 16 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,279 Speaker 4: in two or three weeks. I know, Ian studies these 17 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 4: charts like crazy. You're looking at these different key operational 18 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 4: metrics within different sectors. Well, in banking, that's the one 19 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 4: that counts how much are they borrowing money for and 20 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 4: how much are they lending it out for and how 21 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 4: often are they lending it out, And the difference between 22 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 4: what they borrow for and what they lend it out, 23 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 4: that's their net interest margin. 24 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 3: That drives their profits. 25 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 4: We used to have this joke, can't really use it 26 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 4: that much anymore, but you might as well. Banks work 27 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 4: on the three six. Bankers work at three to sixty 28 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 4: three schedule. They borrow at three, they lend at six, 29 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 4: and they're on the golf course by three. Right, That's 30 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 4: how a good bank's supposed to work. But with interest 31 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 4: rates this high, they're lending out at a very high rate. 32 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 4: Very few people are borrowing because these rates are pretty 33 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 4: terrifying right now. It's dissuaded, it's caused demand destruction. So 34 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 4: their net interest margins are really low. So you want 35 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 4: to look at lending activity, but you want to look 36 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 4: at net interest margins to see which bank is bringing 37 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 4: the most money down to the bottom line, down to 38 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 4: the profit area. 39 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: The next one is percent of uninsured deposits. 40 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 3: Right, this is a big one. 41 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 4: Silicon Valley Bank had an enormous percent of uninsured deposits. 42 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 4: They had a lot of money. They had a lot 43 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 4: of customers that were over that two hundred and fifty 44 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: thousand dollars limit. So that could have been small businesses, 45 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 4: that could have been startups, that could have been wealthy 46 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 4: people in Silicon Valley or just tech people who work 47 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 4: in that industry that have gotten stock options over the 48 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 4: years that have a few hundred thousand dollars or a 49 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 4: million bucks in the bank. 50 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 3: So the higher. 51 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: What's that? 52 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 3: Do you know the percentage was? By chance? 53 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 4: I think it was like seventy nine or eighty that 54 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 4: that number rings in my head. But when you look 55 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 4: at a lot of the regional banks that have been 56 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 4: attacked by short sellers over the past week or two, 57 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,079 Speaker 4: what are they looking at. They're looking at the banks 58 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 4: with the highest percentage of uninsured assets because those are 59 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 4: the most vulnerable. And the Fed raise rates again right 60 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 4: last week. They're just making this problem worse. The higher 61 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 4: interest rates go, the title thos and that interest margins go, 62 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 4: and the higher the harder it is for banks to loan. 63 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 4: So they're getting squeezed because they're paying they have extremely 64 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 4: high lending rates. Nobody's borrowing the money they have protected 65 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 4: in government bonds. The price of those assets has really 66 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 4: gone down a lot, and they have a higher percentage 67 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 4: of uninsured assets. 68 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 3: Perfect storm surrounding banks right now. 69 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,959 Speaker 2: Credit spreads. 70 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 4: Credit spreads is basically that it's really how much lending 71 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: is going on and you want to look at the 72 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 4: credit spreads between banks. 73 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 3: What a banks do and what does the Federal Reserve do? 74 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 4: It facilitates lending between banks, and it loans money to banks. 75 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 4: It loans money to banks through what we call the 76 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 4: discount window. And if you heard Fed chair Power last 77 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 4: week and two weeks ago, what did the Fed do? 78 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 4: That discount window is usually a seven day window. I'm 79 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,119 Speaker 4: a bank, I'm loaning to ian. He's got seven days 80 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 4: to pay me back. We're loaning him at a certain rate. 81 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 4: He's got to pay me back plus that interest. Well, 82 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 4: now that windows only one day long, so we don't 83 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 4: have to wait seven days to see what happens to rates. 84 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 4: That's a one day borrow. So when banks get tight, 85 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 4: and when liquidity gets tight like we had in the 86 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 4: Great Financial Crisis, banks stop lending to each other. 87 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 3: So you want to look at how much. 88 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 4: Lending is going on right now and the spreads between 89 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 4: what this bank is loaning to this bank. It's super 90 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 4: in detail for a lot of folks, but you're going 91 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 4: to hear this word a lot. What are credit spreads? 92 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 4: Credit spreads are getting blown out? 93 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 5: Ernest, what's up? 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This episode is brought to you by 113 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 5: P and C Bank. A lot of people think podcasts 114 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 5: about work are boring and sure, they definitely can be, 115 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 5: but understanding a professionals routine shows us how they achieve 116 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 5: their success, little by little, day after day. It's like 117 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 5: banking with P and C Bank. It might seem boring 118 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 5: to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, 119 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 5: but keeping your money boring is what helps you live 120 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 5: a more happily fulfilled life. P and C Bank Brilliantly 121 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 5: Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty 122 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 5: five is a service mark of the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. 123 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 5: P and C Bank National Association Member FDIC. 124 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 6: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child 125 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 6: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from l Salvador 126 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 6: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with 127 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 6: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just 128 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 6: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President 129 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 6: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States 130 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 6: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, Attempted illegal border 131 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 6: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over 132 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 6: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested if you 133 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 6: are here illegally, You're next. You will be fine nearly 134 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 6: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported. You will 135 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 6: never return. But if you register using our CBP home 136 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 6: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally. 137 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 6: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump America's laws, 138 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 6: border and families will be protected. 139 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 3: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. 140 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 4: Right, nobody's loaning at anybody at a reasonable rate because 141 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 4: they're worried about that money. So when we hear this expression, 142 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 4: they're blown out credit spreads. That means ingest rates have 143 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 4: risen so high that banks are loaning to each other 144 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 4: at exorbitant rates, and nobody's borrowing. 145 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: So it's how I've just got one more. But this 146 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: whole banking system is extremely interesting because it's like I live, 147 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: there's twelve regional uh federal Reserve banks, and then those 148 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: banks overnight they lend money to all of the banks 149 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: in their area. And then as they raise interest rates, 150 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: then banks that's borrowing money from the big. 151 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 2: The big guys. 152 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: It's gonna be more expensive, which gets passed down on 153 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: the credit cards. And it's the car, so it starts 154 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: it starts at the top. They're loaning money overnight to 155 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: the smaller guys, and then the smaller guys are auditioning 156 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: out money to everyday people. So every time the interest 157 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: rates get raised, that's how you are impacted in your 158 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: day to day life. 159 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 5: And then inversely, the people who are depositing large amounts, 160 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 5: they're using that money to now loan. 161 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 2: Okay, one last question. 162 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 4: The silver lining here real quick, is that there's finally 163 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 4: money in the bank for actual depositors. So people who 164 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 4: are freaked out about the stock market are freaked out 165 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 4: about this, or that you could buy a CD right 166 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 4: now for four or five percent, you can buy a 167 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 4: money market for fun for four or five percent. So 168 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 4: the silver lining and all of this is it's good 169 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 4: for customers and depositors as long as our bank doesn't 170 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 4: go under. But it's really rough between banks right now, 171 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 4: and really rough for businesses. That's why everyone's talking about 172 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 4: a recession. Lending is going to get so tight, nobody's 173 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 4: gonna borrow, nobody's going to expand they're gonna start laying 174 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:27,559 Speaker 4: off people. 175 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 3: That precipitates a recession. 176 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: Arise in credit, the fault swaps, what is credit and 177 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: this is, by the way, ladies and jail, this is 178 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: your master's degree. 179 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: If it sounds like a encyclopedia. 180 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: Your master's degree in five minutes, because it is for free, 181 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: by the way, right. 182 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 4: Credit to fault swaps is basically derivative or an options contract. 183 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 4: It's it's an insurance contract. So if I'm if I 184 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 4: believe that the Bank of Ian Dunlap is getting risky, 185 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 4: I may buy a credit to fault swap from you. Right, 186 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 4: It's an insurance contract that says if he doesn't, if 187 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 4: his stock price goes under, if his stock price keeps 188 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 4: going down, you're going to each other on that insurance. 189 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 2: All right, sorry to use. 190 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 4: You, go ahead, already use you. So it's basically it's 191 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 4: an insurance contract betting on the health of a bank. 192 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 3: In some cases, it could be anything. 193 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 4: You can buy credit default swaps on a lot of 194 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 4: different securities, but the ones we're watching really closely right 195 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 4: now are the credit default swaps on banks. Why because 196 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 4: they're the amount and the volume of credit default swap 197 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 4: purchases and the price of credit default swaps against some 198 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 4: of the biggest banks in the world, like Deutsche Bank, 199 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 4: has been rising a lot in the past few days, 200 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 4: more and more investors are doubting their ability to either 201 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 4: get through a recession or they're doubting the ability, in 202 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 4: the case of regional banks, for them to be able 203 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 4: to survive this period of high interest rates, and they're 204 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 4: depositors taking money out. So watch credit default swaps and 205 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 4: if you need a really good explanation if I didn't 206 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 4: do a good enough job, the Big Short movie, which 207 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 4: was terrific, that really explained if I financial crisis. There's 208 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 4: a great explanation of credit to fault swaps in that movie. 209 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 4: You should watch, and I'm sure the clip is on YouTube. 210 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 4: But basically it's an insurance contract between me and another 211 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 4: investor betting on the health of a bank in this case, 212 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 4: but it could be any security that was well put. 213 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 2: Thank you for. 214 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: My graduates from my school being force bad. 215 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 2: Drop drop, Mike, drop bag drop drop. 216 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 6: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child 217 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 6: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador 218 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 6: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with 219 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 6: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just 220 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 6: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President 221 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 6: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Chris Denome, the United States 222 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 6: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border 223 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 6: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over 224 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 6: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you 225 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 6: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly 226 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 6: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will 227 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 6: never return. But if you register using our CBP home 228 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 6: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally. 229 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 6: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, 230 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 6: border and families will be protected. 231 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.