WEBVTT - Macro Man Vs. YOLO Boy 0:00:03.720 --> 0:00:07.080 Scrap on your parachute. It's time for What Goes Up 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:15.200 with Sarah Ponz and Mike Reagan. Hello and welcome to 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:19.040 What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly markets podcast. I'm Sarah Pons, 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:22.840 reporter on the Cross Asset team, and I'm Mike Reagan, 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.799 a senior editor at Bloomberg. And you know, Sara, it 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.440 occurds me that a lot of people that listen to 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:30.800 the show might not realize what a senior editor is. 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:35.240 So I'll explain that it just means I'm old. It's 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:39.400 it's another word for old editor. It's more than that. 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:43.879 It's more than that. It is take it, take it 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:47.000 to heart if you say so. I'm getting sensitive about 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:48.560 my age and I've got I've got one of those 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:51.320 rail number birthdays coming up. It's it's caused me a 0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:55.760 lot of anxiety, a lot of reflection rail number resistance, 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.400 if you will. Uh but sorry, It's made me think 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:01.240 a lot about sort of this generation divide we have 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:04.000 now in the markets, with sort of the younger people 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:07.399 doing the Wall Street bets Reddit type of trades. And 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.400 I don't know how you know true that is. That 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.080 might be a stereotype, but for what it's worth. That's 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:14.840 that's what the stereotype is. And then you have the 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:18.360 old guys in the market. Um, And I've been thinking 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:21.320 about you, Sarah, because I feel like it's it must 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:25.480 be frustrating for you because no matter you know how 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.200 much progress has been made for you to do your job, 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:29.720 you still have to talk to a bunch of old 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.559 guys like me fairly regularly. You know, it's not maybe 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:34.840 not be right, might not be fair, but you have 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:38.120 to sort of communicate with old guys like me. And 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:40.520 what do you what do you think of our generation? 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:43.040 You think we just don't want to talk to any 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:46.319 anyone income on Mike you're not old. Well, here's what 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:48.480 I what made me think about it is is whenever 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:52.360 you get two old guys together, say I don't know 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.480 on this podcast and you at some point we all 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.960 start just communicating in old movie lines. You know, it's like, 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:02.280 and I know you, it's got to be frustrating to 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.240 hear two old guys all of a sudden sound like 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.080 they're speaking another language, but really they're just like quoting 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:12.680 Caddyshack or something. I just get confused. But by this point, 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:15.600 usually if there's something I don't understand, and if it's 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:18.120 a reference, I just gotta step back, let you do 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:22.440 your thing and move on. But I'm here to help you. 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.000 I think we should open up the podcast hotline, not 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:28.520 just for the craziest things people saw on markets this week, 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:31.560 but if you have an old man movie suggestion for Sarah, 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.560 call us up and let us know. What do you think. Well, 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:36.360 it's a good time to let you know. I'm actually 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:38.280 off next week, so to give me all the movie 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.799 suggestions of all the time in the world, and I'll 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:45.799 watch them all. I'm gonna regret saying that. I think 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:47.200 we'll get some. I think we'll get some. And if 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:49.640 you have some sort of millennial movie suggestions for me, 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.160 I'm in the market too. I'm open to all of that. 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:54.400 So hit us up on the What Goes Up Podcast. 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.240 We'll give you the number at the end of the show. 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:58.880 That way, we'll make you stick around for the entire show. 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.040 But sorry, if you're an old guy these days, it's 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:06.960 also frustrating because if you have teenage children, all they 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.480 want to do right now is trade, whether it be 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:13.680 crypto or getting on Robin hood and and Wall Street 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.000 bets on Reddit. All they want to do is trade, 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.919 and they look at us. Dad's like, you idiot. If 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.800 only you would let me trade, we could all be 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:25.720 driving Lambeau's right now, Everyone in the house would have 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:29.000 a Lambeau. If dad would just let me trade. The dog, 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.919 the family dog could have its own Lambeau just to still, 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:35.240 you know, chewing the six shift. Whatever the dog would 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:39.840 do Lambeau. But so we've got some great guests this 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:43.280 week who I know are going through this very dynamic. 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.960 It happened in my house to my My daughter wants 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:47.880 to trade. She wants to get in there and buy 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:51.040 some Tesla and she thinks she can make enough money 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:54.120 to buy herself with Tesla. Is is her goal? Um, 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:56.800 And I know a colleague of ours is going through 0:03:56.840 --> 0:03:58.440 the same thing at home, and he had a very 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:02.480 interesting way of dealing with this issue. So let's bring 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.240 him in and he'll talk about it with us. And 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:08.760 we're very very lucky that not only do we have him, 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:10.880 but we have his son on the other end of 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.520 the trade here. So let's welcome to him to the show. 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:17.040 He's been on before. He's a hedge fund trader for years, 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:23.040 Currency macro, all sorts of bond equity, futures, you name it. 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:25.720 He's an expert on all sorts of Macro products. He's 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:29.000 in fact our own Macroman columnist at Bloomberg. His name 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:31.400 is Cameron Christ. Cameron, welcome back to the show. Always 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.200 a pleasure to be here. And like you, Mike, I'm 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:38.320 having a milestone birthday, the very same milestone birthday this year. 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:40.360 We're not gonna We're not gonna name it, but I 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.680 think anyone who sees this can probably can probably guess it, 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.760 and uh, well, happy early birthday. And Sarah, I'm just 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:49.320 gonna I'm just gonna go ahead and give you a 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:52.600 movie recommendation that I know, Michael and Doris, you gotta 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:57.080 see Fletch. I'm already regretting that. I'm already regretting that 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.479 I'm gonna have a lot of movies by to the day. 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:02.120 You're gonna have a lot of homework. But it will 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.839 make you finally understand where we're coming from. I think, 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:07.000 you know, I think when Cavin and I were kids, 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:09.479 it was like, Hey, it's Thursday night. What are you 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:11.520 doing to night? Now? I'd be like, well, I'm watching Cheers, 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.400 and the other guy would be like, I'm watching cheers too. 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:17.080 You know, no one's invented social media yet, or no 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.520 one's invented Netflix. What else are we supposed to do? 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:21.440 So I think we all have this sort of common 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.320 shared history that uh, in this day of just you know, 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:27.440 infinite entertainment is not the same that That's my big 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:30.800 thought on on that issue. So uh, you know, call 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:32.680 the podcast and tell me how I'm wrong about that. 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:35.200 But that's in one corner. We're there. We have our 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:38.400 Macromn Cameron Christ. In the other corner, we have his 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.680 son who is itching to be a trader, and I'm 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:43.920 wishing him all the luck, all the luck in the world. 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:46.920 His name is Patrick Christ. Patrick, Welcome to the show. 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.640 I'm glad to be here. I'm uh great. How can 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:51.680 you be able to share my opinion and the opinions 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:54.600 of many others my age? All right, well, now we're 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:58.400 gonna pit you against your dad, so so bring it. 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:02.040 But Karen, why you just started off here, Kick it 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.920 off and walk us through this bet that the two 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.440 of you had going on over the past week or 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:10.520 so and how it came to be. Okay, so we 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:14.600 were got to talking over the proverbial dinner table as 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.960 as it were about the whole Wall Street bets phenomenon 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.520 and games stop and how crazy the pricing was. And 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:23.840 I said, well, it's obviously a bubble and it's obviously 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:29.400 going to end badly. And Patrick, Uh, who is a 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:36.880 an enthusiastic consumer of reddit uh content, Uh disagreed. Now, 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:39.960 ordinarily I would have said, well, why don't you just 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:46.960 take a little position and and and learn the hard way. Unfortunately, 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:50.640 or fortunately as it turned out, for Patrick, he has 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:54.839 to abide by the same trading restrictions that Bloomberg imposes 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:58.960 that I do, which involves minimum holding periods, can't trade 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:04.040 calls or puts. Really and uh if he if he 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:06.160 would have trade something, I couldn't write about it. So 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:08.960 it kind of it really was a non starter for 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:11.720 him to to go on Robin Hood and uh and 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:14.760 and actually take a position. So we kinda we made 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:19.280 a bet in in in the best trading places um tradition. 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:21.520 You must know that one, Sarah, come on, you must 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:26.080 know trading places. So look, this truth is I do not. 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:28.920 And the reason I can tell you this is because 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:32.640 we have the caller for the craziest things at the 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.120 end of the show, and we are going to hear 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:37.520 a quote from trading places. But that's all I say 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.520 for so I digress. So anyway, and that should that 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:44.480 should be top of her list. Absolutely so. And I 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:47.680 will say that tried to make me watch it. I 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:52.920 last about fifteen minutes. Patrick, you're the man. Well, I mean, 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.360 as you know, as you know, Mike. Uh, and maybe 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.760 you'll know at some point, Sarah, the best way to 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:00.520 get your kid not to do some thing is to 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:05.680 tell them to do it. Um anyhow, at least anyhow 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:08.840 invest trading place of tradition. I figured we'd make we'd 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:12.440 make a bet. So we had this conversation Tuesday of 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:16.280 last week when Game Stopped closed, thinking about one forty 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:20.320 seven or something like that. Uh, And Patrick said, well, 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:24.800 it's easy, gonna go over two hundred tomorrow And I said, 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:28.720 no way, man. So we sat in over under for 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:33.520 Game Stops closing share price on Wednesday of two hundred, 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:36.360 and we bet a dollar. So that was one leg 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.320 of the bet. Second leg of the second leg of 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:43.000 the bet is Patrick's play. Well, this is easy because 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:47.080 all of these Wall Street bet people are piling into 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:50.720 these stocks, not only Game Stop, but the Blackberries and 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:53.960 Nokias and a m c S and they're gonna drive 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:59.000 this stuff crazy high. So I can you know, running 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.080 a shadow portfoile lio, I can double my money in 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.120 three days, i e. By the end of by the 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:07.400 end of the week. Now mind you return for an 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:11.120 entire year is epic for someone who does us for 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:14.120 a living. And here we have boy Genia saying he 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:18.880 can do it in three days. So that narrated another bet. Uh. 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.880 So we then tracked obviously the market uh for the 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:26.480 rest of the week, and Patrick triumphed handily in the 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:28.800 first bet as game Stop closed it I think three 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:34.160 on on Wednesday. So frankly, if he just put all 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:36.960 of his money on margin in the game Stop at 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.360 the beginning of the day and uh and closed it 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:41.560 out on on on Wednesday, he probably would have won 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.040 the second leg of the bet. But alas and a 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:47.600 lack for him. Uh the Yolo stocks went up and 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:49.400 then they started to go down, and I think he 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:53.160 ended up down or something, which, given he was heavily 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.040 heavily margin could have been could have been worse. So 0:09:56.280 --> 0:10:01.000 it ended up being. So you're allowing mar in these 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:04.200 paper trades. That's interesting. What kind of margin uh rate 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:07.600 are you giving him. He well, I'll let Patrick discuss 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:09.640 the he used an app, so I'll let Patrick talk 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:14.920 about that. Yeah, I used like an online stock simulator. UM. 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.400 And I'm entirely sure what the margin rate is. I 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:21.040 think my UM, I think it was most like a 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:25.400 negative a hundred thousand dollars for cash given a hundred 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:29.440 thousand dollars starting value, So I assume it's And for 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:31.200 the record, I wanted the best to be higher. I 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:33.520 was going. I was willing to bet a game stop 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.800 stock for whatever. Friend who would end up that you 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:40.160 want to yea rather for there's a lesson risk management. 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.439 Because he wanted me to bet like a dollar per 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.280 h per difference. So for every dollar the game stock 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:48.240 was ready from the over under, he wanted to bet 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.000 a dollar. And I mean, obviously I knew that if 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.200 I was wrong, I would probably be spectacularly wrong. So 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:56.960 I tapped my losses at a dollar. So, young grasshopper, 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.079 let that be a lesson. Yeah, I had this. This 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:02.560 son of your son of yours has a future. I 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.200 think in this business camera. I like I like his 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:08.120 instincts there. I like the levered up instinct. If you 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:11.480 can triple lever on game Stop. I want to start 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:14.720 a triple levered Wall Street Betsy t F and I'm 0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:17.360 sure that would go. It would go so well. It 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:23.920 is an apt um manifestation of this phenomenon because Robin Hood, 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.640 I believe when you sign up, the basic account they 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:30.360 give you is automatically a margin account, and I think 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:34.040 there's probably something a little wrong with that. You know, 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.160 it's kind of going going in pretty heavy, pretty early. 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.240 So the wait, So, Patrick, we know you won the 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.720 game Stop bet, but walk us through how you went 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.480 about trying to craft or portfolio to make a hundred 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:57.960 percent in three days. What kind of stops were you 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.959 looking at? Why did you choose the ones did? How 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:05.400 did you position? Give us some color there? Um. So, 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.640 my initial idea was to go all on game Stop exclusively. 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.880 Game Stop A fan bought around uh six fifty shares 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.520 of it at well. I tried to buy it whatever 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:16.280 it ended on on Tuesday, but I only get it 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:21.120 um like to nine on Wednesday. Um So, at first 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:24.120 I tried to go solely for game Stop um because 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:26.079 I thought it would have the best returns. But then 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:29.600 you know, I I took personal finance earlier this year. 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.240 You know, we were supposed to diversify your portfolio, so 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:34.000 I go. I decided to go for some other stocks. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.680 You know, you're AMC, You're BlackBerry, Are you no kids? 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:46.439 Real diversification? Um, So I bought. I remember exactly how much. 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:48.839 I think I tried to get, like twenty dollars worth 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.600 of each um and then you know, however many probably 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:55.600 about eighty or ninety game Stop um. And I think 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.880 the diversification actually harmed me in the long run, because 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:07.400 games I was much more problem Yeah, um, I think 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:12.319 I peak. I was up sometime on Thursday, so I 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.400 could have cash out and made a saw a profit. 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.679 I want to I want to win the bet um. 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.760 But then well, game Stop was still going up. My 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:25.400 diversified stocks started going down, so I was I wasn't 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.880 sure if I should sell, and ultimately, you know, I 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.199 lost the bet. Hey you're you're one and one. You 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:34.959 won one bet. I gotta tell you, I I was 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.000 when I heard about this. I was rooting for you 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:39.200 from the get go, and I'll tell you why now 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.679 You're Dad is known as the Macroman. There are a 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.719 lot of macro men and women out there. Um. Go 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:47.880 to a pub in London at like four oh one, 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:50.640 and you'll you'll see a lot of them maybe four 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:55.520 oh two. Um, they all think they can trade stocks, right, Cameron, 0:13:55.800 --> 0:14:00.160 All macro traders believe they they consecretly trade start Well, 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.040 you know, it's it's funny because on a professional basis, 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.199 I would actually almost argue the opposite. It's just the 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.400 nature of the way that macro has evolved over the 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.439 over the prickly and since the crisis. It's like you're 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.600 only allowed to be short stocks if you're a macro person, 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.800 which given what the stock markets done over the last 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:25.080 twelve thirteen years, it's kind of trading with both arms 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.280 and both legs tied behind your tied behind your back. 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.120 But yeah, I think it's probably fair to say that, uh, 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.920 most macro people look at the sort of analysis that 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:40.040 goes on in uh the equity space and think thinks 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:44.320 it's a little maybe a little shallow, and that the 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:49.880 equity people are the beneficiaries of of cheap money and 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:55.840 cheap insight rather than any fundamental, uh profound truths of 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.960 the universe. That's that's just talking stocks. Not even get 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:04.160 in the stay make it very clear with the end, Patrick, 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.320 I know, I mean you have a leg up because 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:07.920 you have a dad who works in the industry. But 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:09.840 when did you become interested in all of this? And 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:14.360 would you say that that increased over the last couple 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:18.280 of weeks, last couple of months even uh? And I mean, 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:20.120 is this something that you talk about with your friends 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:23.440 a lot and give us give us a sense to that. Um. 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.960 So I'd say that my interest in trading kind of 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.960 spawned off with my interest in economics. Obviously, you know, 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:32.800 I had some interest because my dad's a trader. So 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:37.000 we talked about that sporadically back to the economics last year, 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.160 and I really enjoyed it. Um. And one of the 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:42.520 things we talked about occasionally, uh with the stock market 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:46.400 and how economic transmit into its lat For example, when 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.040 the coronavirus hit, we were talking about whether it's a 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:52.120 supply shock, um, because you know, we weren't really sure 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.640 what it was. We're trying to analyze it through an 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:56.960 economic lens and see how it how it would recover. 0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:00.920 Based on that, UM. So, I kind of I had 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.400 a portfolio that was a little more orthodox last year 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:06.920 or sometime. I don't really remember what happened to it, 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.360 I think, and I forgot it. Um, but yeah, this year, 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:13.960 the past couple of weeks, it's definitely been Um, my 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:17.040 interest has definitely been picking up. Yeah, I'm a lot 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:18.920 of my friends are interesting too. We've talked about in 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:22.200 a couple of my classes school. Um. But contrary to 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.240 what I feel, a lot of people in the industry 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:28.320 thrink think not everyone's on the same side of game stop. Um. 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.720 You know, a couple of my friends, uh my literature 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:33.880 group chat are actually you know if they think they 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.760 think it's what Wall Street Bets is doing is illegal. 0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:39.640 And Patrick, you're you're in high school, you're really like 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:43.240 a junior senior something like that. Senior senior. Okay, And 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.040 I want to dive into that idea you mentioned, you know, 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.120 and and the media sometimes gets this stuff wrong, let's 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:52.360 be honest. But you know, there's been this narrative in 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.000 the media that it's kind of a sort of David 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:59.160 versus Goliath almost there's this sort of you know, moral 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:01.520 side of the Wall Street Bets trying to take on 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.480 take on the man, take on the suits. Um. I 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:06.800 gotta say, you know, Sarah, back in the day that 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:09.200 that would have been something I would be be interested 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:11.560 into you can tell I'm getting old though, because I'm 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:13.840 not really interested in sticking it to the man anymore. 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:16.880 I'm like, someone's gonna get hurt. Someone's gonna get hurt. 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:22.639 Don't right, But Patrick, is how big of an an 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.080 element is that? Is it really sort of this this 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:28.159 moral aspect to it, you know, of of taking on 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:32.560 sort of the power structure in the economy. Or is 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:35.760 it just guys and girls having fun and and trying 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.400 to make money? I mean, is it is it really 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.240 that simple, just that motivation to make a few bucks, 0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:44.240 or is there something more? From your opinion, I think 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.240 it's somewhere in between. Um, And you don't worry, You're 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:48.960 not alone. My dad also kind of hold the same 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:53.040 kind as you. Kevin. That was your son calling you old. 0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:56.359 I believe it wasn't the first time I wanted to last. 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:02.240 So among the Wall Street best community, there are definitely 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:03.800 some who were just in it, you know, in it 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:05.359 for the memes. They want to make a few bucks. 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:07.840 But there's also some people, um, like you said, who 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:09.760 are in it for the moral aspect. There was a 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:13.120 post a couple of a couple of days ago who said, 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:15.960 who's talking about how deeply. They were hit by the 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:20.240 two thousand eight financial crisis, and how you know they saw, um, 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:23.160 many of people involved kind of got got away with nothing. 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.280 So this was some way of kind of acting enacting 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.960 some financial penance on them, um in a way that 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.119 you know, Congress didn't really do so for them. It 0:18:33.200 --> 0:18:35.600 wasn't just obviously they were trying to make money, but 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:37.520 at the same the time, they were trying to right 0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:40.640 the wrong that they experienced a dozen or three years back. 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:44.119 Were you a member of Wall Street Bets or were 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:45.800 you aware of it before it kind of just blew 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:47.320 up in the past couple of weeks. I know it's 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.800 been popular for a while now, Yeah, I mean I 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:53.760 was a member for a few months. UM No, it 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:57.000 had it was growing, like say steadily. It was that 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.440 um maybe one or two million members or this whole 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:04.960 style began. UM. I mean it was my favorite. UM 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:07.520 so great by any means, but you know, it was 0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:12.359 a mat Brows somewhat active UM and a lot of 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.680 I would say they sort of have this attitude about 0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:19.639 them regarding stocks that they are they are really the 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:23.640 David UM. They realize that they're not smart. They often 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:27.800 post their losses often in the tens of thousands, because 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.560 they recognize that what the craze that are making a risk, 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:36.000 they are risky and there you know, they often don't work. Um, 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.560 So yeah, I'd say they do definitely see themselves um 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:45.840 as the David, But I think they also recognize that 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:49.560 maybe they were the David. If David hit himself in 0:19:49.600 --> 0:20:08.600 the head with a sling. That's pretty funny, Kevin. I 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.600 want to ask you though, you know, obviously a lot 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:14.800 of the strategies that that these traders are employing, are 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:19.040 you know, maybe what at least used to be less 0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:21.920 liquid names, high short interest, you know that that sort 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:27.840 of thing. From your perspective as a macro oriented type 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.840 of trader and now a columnist, um, do you see 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.760 any risk of this type of behavior sort of getting 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.399 pointed towards the macro world? Now? I know you look 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:40.600 at the currency market six six trillion dollars a day. 0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:44.000 You know, on first blush, it's probably too big of 0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:46.240 a market for this type of thing to to make 0:20:46.280 --> 0:20:48.080 it dent. But I don't know if you start looking 0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:50.600 at like risk reversal positions and say, I don't know, 0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:54.199 the looney you know, Kiwi pair something like that. Are 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:58.920 there ways these guys uh could start making dents in 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:02.280 the facts or bond market or any other non sort 0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:06.399 of meme stock type of situations in the markets, maybe 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:09.399 in a in a very ephemeral way. I don't think 0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:12.920 they can have the same magnitude of impact certainly that 0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:16.960 they had in some of these yolo stock simply because 0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:20.720 the liquidity is so much, so much greater. And you know, 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.399 the thing is is that typically a lot of the 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:28.680 esoteric stuff, like what you've referred to on the derivative side, 0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:31.720 you just traded over the counter, and that's not a 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:37.720 venue where Robin Hood can can provide provide liquidity um 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:43.120 for for for example, but for sure, uh, if they 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:48.040 were to gang up on maybe a listed option on 0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:53.320 an e T f uh that it corresponds to a 0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:56.720 macro product, you know, like maybe silver, which is kind 0:21:56.720 --> 0:22:01.080 of famously a liquid for a macro product. Um, then 0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:03.600 if everyone bought a bunch of calls or a bunch 0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:06.879 of puts on silver, could that have an impact for 0:22:07.119 --> 0:22:09.760 for a few days? Yeah, I think so. Uh. I know, 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:12.840 even when I was a portfolio manager and I wanted 0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.120 to running a big portfolio, and I wanted to take 0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:18.560 a position in silver, an option position in silver. I 0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:22.000 used the t F rather than rather than rather than 0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:24.959 the future. So that's certainly a venue potentially that they 0:22:25.000 --> 0:22:28.920