1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 2: Ju us prow read enough for running again, so smoothe 3 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 2: so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution. 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 2: How shot with that? 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 3: Shop with mind bog buddy, And. 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 4: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 3: Look at his movements the. 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 4: Most dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 3: Nobody picks them. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying. 13 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 4: The one is left. 14 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: Too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus. 15 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 4: How old Earth pick that happens? 16 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wondergool Soccer betting podcast from 17 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee buff joining 18 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: me tonight always my friends and colleagues BJ Cunningham and 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: Anthony Dabundo. And before I bring those two guys in, 20 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: just a reminder. Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Betrie 21 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up a 22 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: promo code action to get bet three six fives exclusive 23 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: sign up offer. Be one dollar on any game and 24 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. You must be 25 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: twenty one or older. The offer is available in Colorado, 26 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio and the Commonwealth of Virginia in the 27 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: United States. And if you have a gambling problem, please 28 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 1: call or texts one eight hundred Gambler and always remember 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: to gamble responsibly. Anthony bj we're here to talk about 30 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: the second legs of the Champions League semi final. The 31 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: road to is stan Bull as it's marketed to the masses. 32 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: Eurovision is now in the books, so this is what 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: everybody is now talking about. Congratulations to Sweden on another 34 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: win at Eurovision, which was in Liverpool. Actually it was 35 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: supposed to be in Ukraine, but the goings on there 36 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: and the UK kind of hosted it for them and 37 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: it seemed like there was some controversy maybe Finland should 38 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: have got the nod, But I digress and I'll just 39 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: stop it there. We'll talk City and Real Madrid first. 40 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 1: Even though this game is on Wednesday, City is minus 41 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: one sixty seven on the three way money line at home, 42 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 1: Real Madrid plus four to twenty five. The draw is 43 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: plus three twenty to advance, City minus three fifty, Madrid 44 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: plus two fifty. If you're gonna bet Real Madrid to advance. 45 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 1: If you're gonna bet Real Madrid to win the Champions 46 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: League or anything like that. Just bet them on the 47 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 1: three way money line is what I would say. I 48 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 1: see no value here on Manchester City. I think that 49 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: the number looks a little scary just considering the sample 50 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: that we have with this real Madrid team. I don't 51 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: think I think that because we're and Anthony especially trust 52 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: the process guys. He's a sixers guy, so he's very 53 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 1: much trust the process. And we look at all these 54 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: numbers and try to parse out the data and say like, 55 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: this team is overperforming, this team is voodoo smoking mirrors. 56 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 1: But this team that has the good numbers and the 57 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: better numbers are not like real Madrid will always look 58 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: to people like you ustere like a little underwhelming compared 59 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: to Manchester City, Liverpool of last year, whoever you want 60 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: to throw in there. But they now have the sample 61 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: size of just punching above their weight in these kind 62 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: of one off spots. I would not go anywhere near 63 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: City at this number. I actually think Madrid at better 64 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: than four to one on the three way line is 65 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: worth a little look. And Antony, you disagree, and I 66 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: just don't understand how many times this team can do 67 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: this to you, So please take the floor. 68 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 4: Well, you know, Michael, you weren't here last week. We 69 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 4: missed you. We need you to come. Tell us why 70 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 4: Real Madrid is going to win. 71 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 5: But bj and I both said we thought that city 72 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 5: was overvalued in the first leg, the market was too 73 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 5: high on them, and honestly, a very even soccer match 74 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 5: played out that ended in a draw, and I thought 75 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 5: a fair result, one one being about right, you know, 76 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 5: two piss missile goals, but otherwise not a. 77 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 4: Ton happening at either end. I just wonder. 78 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 5: We saw the opening twenty minutes of that first match 79 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 5: the first leg Tuesday, and we saw Real Madrid trying 80 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 5: to play out from the back under pressure and completely 81 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 5: failing and getting away with it in the end. 82 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 4: I am very skeptical that that will work again at 83 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 4: the Etty had. 84 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 5: I think they're going to have major problems playing out 85 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 5: from the pressure. We've seen this with Real Madrid on 86 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 5: the road in the Champions League even this season. 87 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 4: Even when I've said. 88 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 5: That Real Madrid is better this year than they were 89 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 5: last year, which is true, that Real Madrid's underline numbers 90 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 5: are better this year than they were last year, which 91 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 5: is also true. That Vnetius has taken another step forward, 92 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 5: and even though Benzima hasn't been as dominant from a 93 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 5: finishing perspective, he's been good once again, Rodrigo adding, you 94 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 5: know that third score punch Camavinga the left back situation. 95 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,799 Speaker 5: He did go off with an injury against Gatafe on Saturday. 96 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 5: That would be a really huge loss. It doesn't necessarily 97 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 5: seem that he's out out. We'll have to wait and see. 98 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 5: That would be a big loss given the lack of 99 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 5: depth they have there. And Cammavnga and Venetius really created 100 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 5: all of Real Madrid's success in the first leg, and 101 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 5: in terms of getting through pressure. 102 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: Kyle Walker's face after the game, like talking to Kama Vingo, 103 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 1: is this priceless stuff? Man? It was just a real, recognized, 104 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 1: real kind of situation. 105 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 4: Yeah. 106 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 5: Venetius too, Yeah, I mean, and Walker was great. I 107 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 5: mean again, the goal came from Kamavnga beating a press, 108 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 5: dribbling through finding Venetius in the center of the pitch, 109 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 5: not out wide against Walker. 110 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 4: So I thought that was notable. But really it's a 111 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 4: matter of city at this point, is now a little 112 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 4: bit over price. I agree. 113 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 5: I ran my projections before the second the first leg 114 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 5: because I knew were going to get an opener right 115 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 5: out right away. When the match ended, I projected City 116 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 5: minus twe forty nine after some adjustments minus one fifty two. 117 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 5: So when City opened minus one thirty, if you followed 118 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 5: me in the app, you saw that, I bet it. 119 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 4: I still like them up to minus one forty. 120 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 5: I'm gonna pass at this number if you want to 121 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 5: look in terms of like props, I think what we 122 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 5: saw on the first leg from City defensively was it 123 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 5: was quite impressive. Actually, you know, holding this team to 124 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 5: know point sixty five XG you know, in real real Madrid, 125 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 5: going over that shot total on like the last flurry. 126 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:40,799 Speaker 4: When when City had run out of gas. 127 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 5: I think City to win to nil is probably the 128 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 5: angle that I would look if I had to bet 129 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 5: this currently, because I really think that as good as 130 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,600 Speaker 5: Venetius is, Walker has shown time and time again. 131 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 4: Now remember Kidding and. 132 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 5: Bape in the World Cup in the quarterfinal, and Bope 133 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 5: had his worst match against Kyle Walker. We now Saws, 134 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 5: who was relatively quiet except for you know that moment 135 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 5: of course, scores a banger. 136 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 4: Good for him. 137 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 5: But I think that's the angle to approach this, I 138 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 5: think you're going to see a lot of overs. You're 139 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 5: gonna see everybody say, oh, you know, just how we 140 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 5: Everybody who bet the over in the first leg is 141 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 5: now going to say, well, you know, first legs they're 142 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 5: always cagy, but the second leg surely will go over. 143 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 4: I don't agree with that. I think this is a 144 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 4: cagy affair. 145 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 5: That's why I don't want to lay the goal, which 146 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:28,239 Speaker 5: is basically we have to lay now a city. 147 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: So that's where I'm at for you to bj The 148 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: other thing I want to mention and throw back towards you, 149 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: Anthony's I don't know, in a when you're betting a 150 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: Premier League season, right, you're betting thirty eight matches and 151 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: you're these teams really don't change their stripes much until 152 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: you know, of course, like coaches coming in and out 153 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: or whatever. But so intangible stuff really doesn't matter all 154 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: that much until you get to the nitty gritty, the 155 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: business end of the season, the deep end of the pool, 156 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: when relegation and title stuff whatever. But in this match, 157 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: all the pressure in the world is on Manchester City, 158 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: all of it. Like Real Madrid has one just won 159 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: the Champions League, last year as an underdog they won. 160 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: They won back to back to back Champions League titles 161 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: and I know a lot of these players weren't on 162 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: that team, but as a club like, there's not going 163 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: to be all that much pressure on this team to 164 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: win this match. This is house money situation. Manchester City 165 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: has never won this title, They've never made it to 166 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 1: the final, and as betters were kind of it's almost 167 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 1: derided as an archaic and kind of old, too old 168 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,719 Speaker 1: school to handicap that kind of stuff in But I 169 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: actually think it matters here like a lot, and it's 170 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: part of the reason why I think getting Real Madrid 171 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: at these numbers is it's worth it because they should 172 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: be the looser side and these are human beings playing 173 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: a soccer match in front of the entire world. 174 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 4: I certainly see that point. 175 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 5: I mean, if you are a sixer fan like myself 176 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 5: and you just watch James Harden implode in Game seven again, 177 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 5: you could say one of the best always been. 178 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 3: Who could have seen that coming? 179 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 4: But yeah, exactly, But I could see. 180 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 5: After an hour of the match being like, how did 181 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 5: I not see this coming? City pressing chances, but does 182 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 5: Holland make a difference there Holm was quiet in the 183 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 5: first leg. Rudiger did an excellent job. They will have 184 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 5: me the towel back. I don't know that he starts. 185 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 5: Rudiger and uh Allaba, we're very. 186 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 4: Good in the first leg. I think that will be interesting. 187 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 5: But I think yes, on like a macro scale, the 188 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 5: pressure coming into the match, pressure will be on Manchester 189 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:55,959 Speaker 5: City because they have to exercise those demons. 190 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 4: Exercise those demons. 191 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 5: But in the actual pla of the match, like Real 192 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 5: Madrid trying to play out under pressure was a promin 193 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 5: at Liverpool, it was a prom at Chelsea and they 194 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 5: got pants in the first half of both of those matches, 195 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 5: and I think that there's a real chance that happens 196 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 5: again here. So and we've seen this from City too. 197 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 5: Even in this Champions League. They went to Leipzig in 198 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 5: the first leg. They really didn't play well. They played 199 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 5: a very even kind of low event won one game. 200 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 5: We all had Leipzig in that match, and then we said, 201 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 5: all right, well second leg. You know, I think Weipzig 202 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 5: could maybe. 203 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 4: Do some of the same things. Keith this competitive We 204 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 4: all bet Leipzig. 205 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 5: They got destroyed and why they kept turning it over 206 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 5: in their own half trying to play out under the 207 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 5: city press, and it's just hard. 208 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 4: To do on the road. I think it's, you know, 209 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 4: what could end up happening here. 210 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 5: I don't know, but that's my read on it again, 211 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 5: not laying the goal, because I do think this is 212 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 5: back very cagy and the same thing we said about 213 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 5: Real Madrid last match, which is like they're better in 214 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 5: the big moments because they have courtois who we know 215 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 5: is an elite shots sopper and Edison's been kind of 216 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 5: mid this year. Like those things still work in their favor, 217 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 5: the voodoo works in their favor. 218 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 4: But from a numbers perspective, I can't get to Madrid either. 219 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 5: I would need plus one in a quarter to bet 220 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 5: Real Madrid, and then I would probably do it. 221 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: Shame RPJ, you're looking ag, I think is a pretty 222 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: good word for you to kind of leap frog off 223 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: of as well. 224 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, under three minus one ten, I think it's still 225 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 3: kind of inflated. And I mean I actually was very 226 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 3: impressed with Real madridly in that first leg. I mean 227 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 3: they are just the second team this season the whole 228 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 3: city under one expected goal. The only team that did 229 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 3: it was Manchester United. At Old Trafford in the second meeting. Now, 230 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 3: what was actually very impressive about it is that the 231 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 3: way they defended in and around their penalty or so 232 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 3: City had that big flurry at the beginning. Then from 233 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 3: the nineteenth minute till the fifty fifth minute, City didn't 234 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 3: even attempt a shot, and there were countless times that 235 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 3: Real Madrid sent really since they were defending most of 236 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 3: the match, and you know, the City had controlled fifty 237 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 3: five percent possession where they were dropping five even six 238 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 3: guys into the back line to really defend in around 239 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 3: their penll and guess what, City only had three shots 240 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 3: in the penalty area and an expected threat of one 241 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 3: point zero seven. Like that is incredibly impressive stuff to 242 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 3: do to the best attacking team in the world. And listen, 243 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to disagree with your point about playing 244 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 3: out of the back for Real Madrid. I think because 245 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:22,199 Speaker 3: I thought they did it actually a very impressive job 246 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 3: doing so in the first leg. And yes it might 247 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 3: be a problem here in the second leg playing away 248 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 3: from home, but Cities passed per defensive action was only 249 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 3: twelve point seven and Real Madrid had to build up 250 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 3: completion percentage of eighty six point five percent. Those are 251 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 3: well above where City's average is at in the Premier League. 252 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 3: So Real Madrid obviously has what I believe is they're 253 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 3: gonna come out in that very type defensive low block 254 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 3: like we saw in the first leg when they were 255 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 3: defending that lead. They might drop five guys into the 256 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 3: back line. I agree with you. I don't know if 257 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 3: Miltal was actually going to play in this one. I 258 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 3: think Alaban Rudiger is a fine back too, and they 259 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 3: did a really good job so and I think it 260 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 3: just sets up perfectly for Real Madrid to play and 261 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: transition where they're at their best, where they've punished City 262 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 3: a lot of times, many times in the last you know, 263 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 3: obviously in the last meeting the goal came in transition. 264 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 3: Last year in both legs that Benis Junior was very 265 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 3: dangerous in transition. So I love under three goals and 266 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 3: minus one ten. I mean, there were one point two 267 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 3: total expected goals off of twenty three shots in the 268 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 3: first leg, so and the total hasn't changed at all essentially, 269 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 3: So and yes, I get it, like people are going like, oh, yeah, 270 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 3: of course, you know this match is going to go 271 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 3: over it. But once the first goal goes in. I mean, 272 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 3: think about it, what have we known about Pep for 273 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 3: his entire career as a manager in situations like this, 274 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 3: he wants control, he wants game control, he wants and 275 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 3: so that ends up meaning that City plays a very 276 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 3: slow paced game and actually favors realbum two because then 277 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:49,719 Speaker 3: they can sit back, they defend because obviously you don't 278 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 3: press with the intensity of some teams like Liverpool and 279 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 3: other teams the City has played through them. So I 280 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 3: like under three and minus won ten. I like project 281 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 3: two point six goals. I don't really see a recent 282 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 3: to back anything up less if it was such a 283 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 3: low event time match in the first leg. So under 284 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 3: three of minus one ten. 285 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the biggest question, like, you know, did 286 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 5: Madrid find something with Holland or did you just have 287 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 5: a bad match. That's one question we don't really necessarily 288 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 5: know the edswer to do. But I will say I'm 289 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 5: kind of curious. It's not that Real Madrid couldn't build 290 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 5: out from the back against City, but there was the 291 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 5: early stretch where they couldn't. But can they do it 292 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 5: again at at the anti head That I'm more like 293 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 5: kind of doubtful about because that's gonna be a problem. 294 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 3: And I mean, here's the thing is, like you know, 295 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 3: Madrid knows what City's doing and build a play. They 296 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 3: know they're doing a three two five, and they're trying 297 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 3: to try to compress that back line. And you saw 298 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 3: it on Sunday, Like Everton did a decent job for 299 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 3: a while, and then as the match goes on, it 300 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 3: becomes more difficult to defend five guys in the box constantly. 301 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 3: So we'll see. But I mean real Madrid, I mean 302 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 3: they didn't allow City into the penalty box and that's 303 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 3: kind of what you have to do with that. It's 304 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 3: very very difficult to do. So we'll see if it 305 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 3: happens in the second line. But it's uh, it's very 306 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 3: very very very interesting second line coming up. 307 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: Okay, on to Tuesday. 308 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 3: Ter and. 309 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: Ac Milan interrupt to nothing. 310 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 4: I'm at home on acreage, at home. 311 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: Coming home, hostile environment. Yeah, yeah, and a lot of travel. 312 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: Interer is plus one oh five, Milan three to one 313 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: the draws plus two twenty five on the three way line. 314 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: Milt is twelve to one to advance inter minus twenty 315 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: five hundred. I think what the what I said about 316 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: the Madrid match. The opposite is true here. If you're 317 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: going to bet Milan to win on the three way line, 318 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 1: you might as well just take the twelve to one 319 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: shot on them to advance here. I think two nothing 320 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: gets painted as an insurmountable situation sometimes, and I don't 321 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: think that that's accurate here. I know we're all kind 322 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: of in agreement, and we're in agreement that enters a 323 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: better team than Elon that showed in the first leg. 324 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: Of course, like the Liao injury comes into play, but 325 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: this is kind of an upstart Milan team. Like I 326 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: think when you're down to nothing, you similar to Madrid, 327 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: like you can kind of play with a little bit 328 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: more uh, you know, freedom, take more risks you got 329 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: to you kind of have to throw everything you can 330 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: at the tide to come back and erase a two 331 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: goal deficit. So I actually don't hate looking towards Milan here, 332 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 1: and I liked entering the first leg. I wrote up 333 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: an article for the New York Post ar partnership there 334 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 1: about Inter being worth a shot in the first leg, 335 00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: and it was true. But I think that I'll flip 336 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: here because getting twelve to one on Melan to erasists. 337 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: I just don't think it's out of the question. This 338 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: isn't Yeah, they're not. Enter's not some like super elite team. 339 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: They weren't considered one coming into the tournament. What were 340 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: they come in like fifty yeah, and then they were 341 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: like thirty three to one at the beginning of the 342 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: knockout stages or so. 343 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 4: Thirty four. 344 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: Yeah. 345 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 4: I happen to know that. 346 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 5: Do you have a ticket, Anthony, I have not mentioned it, 347 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 5: but I'm very excited about it. 348 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna lose the final, obviously. 349 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 3: But yeah, I have an AC Milan twenty two to 350 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 3: one ticket. That's not drawing dead. Michael, No, I don't 351 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 3: think so, bj I really don't, and I mean here 352 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 3: getting into it. I think there are some interesting aspects 353 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 3: where Milan can make a comeback. I think it all 354 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:49,719 Speaker 3: depends on a fly I was gonna play or not. 355 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 3: If he doesn't, I don't think they have a shot. 356 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 3: But I mean, this is the second time now where 357 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 3: we've seen Inter going into a second leg with the lead. 358 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 3: The first time against Quarto they were incredibly passive and 359 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 3: essentially saw it on one nil lead, and then against 360 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,239 Speaker 3: Benefica they had a two goal lead coming home and 361 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 3: they were up three to one and they could seated 362 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 3: twice late to get Americle cover from Betafica. But one 363 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 3: thing that Milan did in that first leg, and I 364 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 3: understand Inter scored early twice, so it kind of changes 365 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 3: the whole complexion of the match and what goes on. 366 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: But some of the ACM Lon wasn't able to do 367 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 3: in all three of the previous meetings when Inter was 368 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 3: the better team is they were not able to disrupt 369 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 3: Inter's build up play. Like their pass per defense action 370 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 3: was always over ten, they would not force any high turnovers. Well, 371 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 3: in the match against Inter, I mean they had a 372 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 3: pass per defensive action of six point seven and had 373 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 3: five high turnovers. So they were actually very good at 374 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 3: disrupting that build up play and that's something that they 375 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 3: did a really good job against Napoli in both legs 376 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 3: in the quarterfinals as well. But for me, I mean, 377 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 3: it's crazy because again we're playing the match at the 378 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 3: exact same stadium. Inter was played one fifty in the 379 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 3: first leg, and now we're coming back. They have a 380 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 3: two goal lead and Inter is sitting there plus one 381 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 3: ten now at most books. So I agree with you. 382 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:10,959 Speaker 3: Now you you get a flip it the other way 383 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 3: and hear and say, okay, why don't I take a 384 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 3: CI Milan plus a half? And the game theory says 385 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 3: that Inter is going to sit on this lead. And 386 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 3: then obviously what happened against Benefica when they went up 387 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 3: three to one kind of gives you a little bit 388 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 3: of pause. But for me, it just depends on if 389 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 3: Layou is gonna play. But for the last match, I said, 390 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 3: if la I was out at Interet plus one to eight, 391 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 3: if he plays, I have Inter at plus one thirty two, 392 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 3: that projection hasn't really changed a whole lot just because 393 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 3: of that one match. So for me, it's all depending 394 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 3: on layout. He plays, I like a CI Milan plus 395 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 3: a half, he doesn't, I'm just gonna pass. So that's 396 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 3: where I'm at. 397 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 5: I mean the Sam zero right, it's seventy five to 398 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 5: twenty five first leg, seventy five percent a Milan second leg. 399 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 3: Other than that, it's the entire the exact same thing. 400 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 4: So I agree with bj on On on Melan. 401 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 5: I think it was encouraging how they played after going 402 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 5: down to Now I know that sounds dumb, and. 403 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 4: Really they could have been down three or four with 404 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 4: how bad it was. 405 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 5: But the problem was as much as they're gonna have 406 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,479 Speaker 5: to press, Inter still has an ability and transition I 407 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 5: think to get at this Milan team, especially now that 408 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 5: benasas out, because we talked about Leo all last week 409 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 5: and how important he is to ball progression and chance 410 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 5: creation and he is everything. 411 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 4: I mean, if you. 412 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 5: Watched the match against Petsia that they played on Saturday, 413 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 5: it wasn't any better. They lost to Nill that's Petsia. 414 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 5: They created like point six xg. It was ugly, ugly, ugly, 415 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 5: probably cost themselves top four. 416 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 4: Inter, you know, has the depth, has the. 417 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 5: Just more widespread attacking ability that they were able to 418 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 5: somewhat rotate and still win comfortably against the swallow. 419 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 4: But I think why do we not like the over. 420 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 5: Because a really passive Inter against the Milan press feels 421 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 5: like a situation where maybe Milan sneaks a goal or two. 422 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 5: But also Inter is going to have a field day 423 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 5: in transition, and Inter hasn't been good at shutting these 424 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 5: games down. Like you said, they conceded three to Benfica. 425 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 5: Granted two were late, but we're under pressure against Benfica 426 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 5: and against Porto it took like a Nonana masterclass to 427 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 5: save that one nil lead. So I think their problems 428 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 5: in transition Milan's problems in transition defense without Leo big flag, 429 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 5: big red without Benas are big red flag. And then 430 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 5: like Inter's defense, Like I, you know, bet them to 431 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 5: win this tournament because I thought they were a very 432 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 5: good defense coming in and they've been pretty good overall, 433 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 5: but they have not been good when they try to 434 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 5: change their style and protect leads. 435 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 4: So I like over here. 436 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 5: Two and a half plus one fifteen one twenty first 437 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 5: lag at over three XG, it should have gone way over. 438 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 4: So I don't think a ton necessarily changes from that. 439 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,199 Speaker 6: Hey, this is Action Network audio director Matt Mitchell inviting 440 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 6: you to head into the sports betting summer with new 441 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 6: gear that's built to last, and our folks at Shady 442 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 6: Friends of the podcast, they have you covered from the 443 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 6: sun to the slopes to out at sea with their 444 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 6: premium polarized shades. 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God you do it's you know, 470 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: it's nuts. So last year when we first started this podcast, 471 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 1: we talked about Sevilla and the Champions League. This was 472 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: even before Wonder Goal was like officially called Wonder Goal. 473 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: We did a Champions League preview and we talked Sevie 474 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: as a tournament team if I have the right podcasts 475 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: right down, and then they were bad and didn't do much, 476 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 1: and then this year they've been terrible and look where 477 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 1: they are. Yeah, it's just it's just that that tournament, 478 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: that tournament pedigree has shown up. Anyways, they're one one 479 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:24,959 Speaker 1: against Uve. Sevilla is plus one forty at home, Uve 480 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 1: plus two ten and the draw plus two twenty. You 481 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: both have a play in Sevilla and Uve. So we'll 482 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:32,160 Speaker 1: just start there. 483 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 3: BJ. 484 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: Let's let's go with you. 485 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I over two and a half in 486 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 3: the first leg, there were three point six expected goals 487 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 3: created and it ended one to one, and it kind 488 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 3: of played out how we expected. We have two defenses 489 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 3: that have been poor, who can't press, who just let 490 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 3: teams into their final third, and that's kind of what happened. 491 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 3: You've controlled a lot of possession, and then Sevilla was 492 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 3: was very good in transition, which is something that they've 493 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 3: done very well through the Europa League, not so much 494 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 3: in La Liga because teams tend to set up very 495 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,200 Speaker 3: very defensive low Blockie, well, Juventus really isn't it really 496 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 3: is not that this season especially, so I say, no 497 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 3: reason I'm gonna change it up. I'm gonna go both 498 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 3: teams to score in this leg and minus one fifteen 499 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 3: just in case we have another one to one draw 500 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 3: and going to extra time. But I mean it's very 501 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 3: game state dependent, right because once that first goal goes in, 502 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 3: and you kind of saw it with Uvents too, it 503 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 3: kind of kicked them into high gear like, oh crap, 504 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 3: we're down one. No, we gotta control more possession. We 505 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 3: got to get the ball in the final third. I 506 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 3: mean Savilla all right to them. I mean they outshot 507 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 3: you Ventus eleven to three in the first half, like 508 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 3: they were incredibly impressive in transition. So I see no 509 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 3: reason why not to back you the over both teams 510 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 3: to score here in the second leg. I'm expecting another 511 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 3: very high event style match, So both teams to score 512 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 3: a minus one fifteen for. 513 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 5: Me, Yeah, I'm gonna take Sevilla drawing a bed here 514 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,120 Speaker 5: and I'm kind of mad at didn't take them. 515 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 4: In the first leg. I also had the over with BJ. 516 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,439 Speaker 5: Brutal loss, but teams to score got in on a 517 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 5: miracle for being honest, they should not have been playing 518 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 5: that match. Still, you've obviously appeared to have lucked out 519 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:07,640 Speaker 5: once again getting the ref to give them an extra 520 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 5: couple of minutes to try to get that goal, which 521 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 5: is amazing anyway, Like Sevilla look like the better team 522 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 5: throughout all of the first leg. They look like they 523 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 5: have a better plan and attack, and they're much more 524 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 5: successful at executing that plan. The one time we need 525 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 5: Vovich to score, he misses a sitter of all sitters 526 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 5: in an empty net. Ye, so you know it's classic 527 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 5: he'll score two in this one. I agree with BJ 528 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 5: on the over. This Juventus defense continues to run so well, 529 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,680 Speaker 5: and from a matchup perspective, I think this is just 530 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 5: good for Sylvia at home as a pick them where 531 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:41,919 Speaker 5: they've been very good in European play and you know 532 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 5: we've we've shipped on Cylvia a lot and for good reason. 533 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 5: But they have started to write the ship figure some 534 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 5: things out. It hasn't been relegation level for him. It 535 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 5: was relegation level form for the first you know, pre 536 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 5: World Cup through maybe January. But they you know, this 537 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,639 Speaker 5: is why we use priors, like they have regressed a 538 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,040 Speaker 5: little bit back towards those priors and been like the 539 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,479 Speaker 5: eighth best team in Spain even in just Spain matches 540 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 5: only since they're worried. So you're starting to see some improvement, 541 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 5: mostly been driven by the attack. Attacks gotten better and 542 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,679 Speaker 5: the series been healthier. They've kind of sorted through, you know, 543 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 5: their problems with not having a true goal scorer by 544 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 5: getting him to score more. 545 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 4: Goals and uh, it's it's been effective. 546 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 5: So like they haven't been as bad in the last 547 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 5: two months as they were in the first seven. 548 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 3: You know, it's crazy. They're one point off a conference 549 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 3: league spot in LA League right now and they're five 550 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 3: and they are five points off of Europa League spot 551 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 3: as well. They have Bettest loses to BUYACNA one Monday, 552 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I agree they have righted the ship. 553 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 3: And even if you look at their expecting goals numbers 554 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 3: like they did over Porm for quite a while, where 555 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,919 Speaker 3: they had scored like fifteen off of five expected. But 556 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 3: I mean I scored three goals against a really bad 557 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 3: Valid Lead team on Sunday. The two prior matches before 558 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,640 Speaker 3: then La Liga, they created a combined four point seven 559 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 3: expected goals. So and his hiss Corona's back to it 560 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 3: gives him more another winger options, So yeah, I agree, 561 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 3: it's I have I've led the charge of shitting on 562 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 3: Sylvia this season, so I will credit where credits do 563 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 3: they have been better as of late. 564 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 4: I don't know if you guys saw the VIA the 565 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 4: League game today. 566 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 5: I did not, but I saw the highlight on Twitter 567 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 5: and the referee so there's like a free. 568 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 4: Kick into the back. 569 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw that. 570 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 5: The second that the first header comes out of the box, 571 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 5: the ref blows the halftime whistle. As the Vita League 572 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 5: player is running onto. 573 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:29,479 Speaker 4: It to strike it. 574 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 5: He scores, but because the whistle blew like not even 575 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 5: a second before the shot was attempted, golden coup and 576 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 5: they loft three. 577 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 4: Now, it was remarkable. 578 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 5: I have never seen anything like that, to be honest. 579 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 5: I've seen like, oh, a team's about to have a 580 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 5: three on one and the ref blows. I've never seen 581 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 5: guy is about to shoot and he blows for half time. 582 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 3: I well, this is why we love this game, man. 583 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 1: I'll never forget when it's playing travel soccer. We had 584 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: a situation like that in our league cup game, a 585 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 1: semi final game, and we had like a four on two. 586 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 1: We turned the ball over in the midfield of four 587 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: on two and the winger made a perfect like late 588 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: a pass like across the middle of the box to 589 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 1: a late runner and as the ball is coming like 590 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: perpendicular to him and he's about to lace it, whistle blue. 591 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 1: And that's how we got eliminated. I think it was 592 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: like thirteen. So stuck with me. And anytime a rep 593 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: does that, like blows a game or half on a 594 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 1: corner or a play like that, that play comes back 595 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 1: to my mind and haunts me. Still. Okay, so Leverkusen 596 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 1: and Roma, Anthony, you're the only one to play here, 597 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 1: and no surprise who you're back. 598 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 5: I mean, what did we see in the first light 599 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,200 Speaker 5: that made us think Roma was worse than Leverkusen, because 600 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 5: I thought that was a very controlled performance. They gave 601 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 5: up two early chances, like the first five minutes to 602 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 5: hold zecondverts and after that it was pretty much like 603 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 5: Roma just controlling the game. Roma gets to be in 604 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 5: there preferred game state, now defending the penalty area, looking 605 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 5: for transition opportunities, Darren Levercuzen to break down a set defense, 606 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 5: which they're not nearly as good at. I like Roma 607 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 5: plus a half here. I'm not going to add more 608 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 5: to my own position, you know, the team of the pod. 609 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 5: But this is a very clear rotation plan too from Jose. 610 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 5: Like they punted Top four, they've been rotating their team 611 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 5: out and in Syria preparing for this run. And we're 612 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 5: now nearing a potential Roma Sevilla Europa League final if 613 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,480 Speaker 5: the if the Chalk holds this weekend, so it will 614 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 5: certainly be interesting nevertheless, but hopefully we can just get 615 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 5: a draw, get out, get. 616 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 4: Our one to one or our nil nil and get 617 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 4: to the final. 618 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,719 Speaker 3: Yeah it's Jose after the game and this zero zero 619 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 3: draw against Bologna, they what they thought of his Top 620 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 3: four hopes being over, and he's like I've been saying 621 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 3: for three months, we were never even be a top four. 622 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 3: So it's pretty clear they're focused on Europa League. God, 623 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 3: I loved him. He's gonna be great at PSG. Next year. 624 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 1: There we go pretty quick episode here we're in the 625 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 1: nitty gritty. Will be back again Thursday morning to talk 626 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 1: about how wonderfully we handicapped last week's Premier League Slate. 627 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: Can't believe you guys convinced me to bet Everden. But 628 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 1: until the time was the right side. Until then, I 629 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 1: can't believe that Arsenal loss. That was a true shock. 630 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 1: Nobody saw that coming. Yeah, only my god, right all week? 631 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, yeah, sad. 632 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 3: You know what it's It's like, you know, it's like 633 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 3: watching one of your kids win against one of your 634 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 3: other kids. Like it's you know, you obviously have you know, 635 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 3: for parents are out there have multiple kids, Like you say, 636 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 3: you don't have a favorite, but. 637 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 4: And yeah, do you have a second kid. I don't 638 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 4: know about No, I don't. 639 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,960 Speaker 3: No. But every parent out there as the two kids 640 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 3: and knows what I'm saying. So it just it sucks. 641 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 3: There's not other way to put other than sucks. Bright 642 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 3: and pumped us. 643 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 1: I tell you what, Like Anthony said, nobody saw that 644 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: one coming. 645 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 3: I just goes down at home. 646 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 1: Uh. And it also sets up believe it here, but 647 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 1: it sets up just an absolutely hilarious spot on Chelsea 648 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 1: next weekend. Good city, especially if it's just such a 649 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: good spot for Chelsea and it's but it's Chelsea anyways, 650 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 1: Frank dominates city. 651 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 3: Frank. 652 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: You can't say that. 653 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 5: Frank lost his job at Chelsea after losing the city, 654 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 5: but other than that he has dominated them. 655 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 4: But he's back at Chelsea now. 656 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. Anyways, that'll that'll do it for this episode. Good 657 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,600 Speaker 1: luck with your Champions League bets. We will see you 658 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 1: again Thursday morning, where I can tell you you're going 659 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: to be hearing a lot about Chelsea against Manchester City 660 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 1: on Sunday for Anthony Dubondo Bijningham. Thank you again to 661 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: our sponsors BET three six five. We will see you 662 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:07,680 Speaker 1: in a few days. 663 00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 664 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 665 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 666 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 5: hundred Gambler