WEBVTT - Did an 19th-Century Man Predict Your Death?

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to brain Stuff from how stuff works. Hey, brain Stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>Laurence Fogelbaum here. Having a legacy is nice, but what

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<v Speaker 1>of the discovery that bears your name and perpetuity is

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<v Speaker 1>something that predicts the death of every human on the planet.

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<v Speaker 1>The thought didn't really seem to bother Benjamin Gomperts much.

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<v Speaker 1>Gumperts wasn't a fortune teller or the Grim Reaper or anything.

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<v Speaker 1>He was an actuary, someone who calculates the financial risk

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<v Speaker 1>and insurance company assumes by ensuring people. But the mortality

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<v Speaker 1>equation he formulated in is still our most useful tool

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<v Speaker 1>for describing how humans and many other animals die out

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<v Speaker 1>over time, and what the gum Parts law of mortality

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<v Speaker 1>tells us can be just as chilling today as it

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<v Speaker 1>was then. Gumparts was born in London in seventeen seventy

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<v Speaker 1>nine to a successful diamond dealer. Though the family was

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<v Speaker 1>wealthy enough, they were also Jewish, which excluded Benjamin from

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<v Speaker 1>studying at a university at that time. But boy did

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<v Speaker 1>that kid ever love math, and so he taught himself

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<v Speaker 1>dogged Lisa, mimitting papers to math publications throughout his early career.

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<v Speaker 1>While working a day job at the London Stock Exchange,

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<v Speaker 1>but what he really wanted was to be an actuary,

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<v Speaker 1>a vocation that would allow him to combine his obsessions

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<v Speaker 1>with math, statistics and financial theory. Unfortunately, nobody would hire

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<v Speaker 1>Gumparts because of his religion. In eighteen twenty four, he

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<v Speaker 1>quit the stock market following the death of his ten

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<v Speaker 1>year old son, and he was subsequently hired as an

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<v Speaker 1>actuary for his brother in law's new insurance company. The

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<v Speaker 1>next year, he submitted a paper to the Royal Society

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<v Speaker 1>entitled on the Nature of the function Expressive of the

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<v Speaker 1>Law of Human Mortality and on a New Mode of

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<v Speaker 1>Determining the Value of Life Contingencies. In it, he suggested

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<v Speaker 1>that for most of our adult lives are chances of

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<v Speaker 1>dying increase exponentially as we age. It wasn't good news,

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<v Speaker 1>but it got people's attention. Gumparts pretty much nailed the

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<v Speaker 1>way to calculate age specific death rates. Of course, he

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<v Speaker 1>did it to help his insurance company figure out the

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<v Speaker 1>appropriate rates for buying and selling annuities, but perhaps the

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<v Speaker 1>death of his only son drove him to a more

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<v Speaker 1>comprehensive understanding of the age related trends behind death. Either way,

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<v Speaker 1>Gumperts gave us an equation stating that after around age thirty,

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<v Speaker 1>the odds of a person buying the farm roughly doubles

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<v Speaker 1>every eight years, So assuming you were at least thirty

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<v Speaker 1>eight years ago, you were half as likely to croak

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<v Speaker 1>then as you are today. Nobody has been able to

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<v Speaker 1>prove this equation wrong for nearly two hundred years, although

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<v Speaker 1>another British actuary named William Makeum came along about a

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<v Speaker 1>half a century after Gumperts and added a good bit

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<v Speaker 1>to the original math that calculates one's risk of death

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<v Speaker 1>assuming equal risk for everybody of dying from certain specific dangers,

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<v Speaker 1>no matter what age we are. In case you were wondering,

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin Gumperts died at the ripe old age of eighty six.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh and his equation works for pretty much all mammals

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<v Speaker 1>after they reach sexual maturity. The only one that straight

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<v Speaker 1>up defies it is the naked mole rat. Today's episode

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<v Speaker 1>was written by Jesselyne Shields and produced by Tyler Playing.

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<v Speaker 1>For more on this and lots of other topics, including

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<v Speaker 1>what the heck is up with naked mule raths, visit

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<v Speaker 1>our home planet how stuff Works dot Com