Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Let's focus now on numbers out of Berkleys. The first
Speaker 2: quarter investment banking revenue coming in at three point three
Speaker 2: to three billion pounds. That is broadly similar to the
Speaker 2: estimate of three point three to five billion. The net
Speaker 2: interest income entirely in line with the estimates. Let's dive
Speaker 2: into a bit more detail though. I'm very pleased to
Speaker 2: say that joining us now, Cspncate Krishnan, the CEO of
Speaker 2: Barkleys Vencat, a real pleasure to have you with us today.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us. We want to
Speaker 2: talk about net interest margin, want to talk about the
Speaker 2: investment banking part of the business. I'll go to the
Speaker 2: net interest margin story first. If I could entirely inlign
Speaker 2: with estimates that number. This morning, yesterday we saw Lloyd's
Speaker 2: reporting something a little different. Under a bit of pressure
Speaker 2: as consumers shop around for higher rates of interest on
Speaker 2: savings products. How should we look at net interest margin
Speaker 2: with all the volatility around rate expectations? What's your sensitivity
Speaker 2: to the rate environment that.
Speaker 3: Well, Anna, thank you very much for having me and
Speaker 3: as you say, these results are entirely in line with
Speaker 3: our expectations and with what we put out on our
Speaker 3: investor Day about ten weeks ago. At that point we
Speaker 3: said that we had a target for twenty twenty six
Speaker 3: returns of twelve percent, ten percent and twenty four Our
Speaker 3: first quarter rot is twelve point three percent, which is
Speaker 3: entirely in line. Our income numbers are in line, our
Speaker 3: costs are in line, and our capitalization is in the
Speaker 3: middle of our range at thirteen point five percent on
Speaker 3: CET one. As far as net interest income goes, you know,
Speaker 3: the rates markets have been volatile. There's been a round
Speaker 3: trip approximately of ninety bases points down ninety bases points
Speaker 3: back up in the tenure guilt in the UK, and
Speaker 3: roughly the same numbers in the US, and so it
Speaker 3: is very early. Our numbers are in line with what
Speaker 3: we said. We've seen deposit growth, we've seen lending growth
Speaker 3: in mortgages and in credit, and so we're pleased with that.
Speaker 3: But it's one quarter in a longer journey of three years.
Speaker 2: Yes, it is. I mean some of the talk at
Speaker 2: the margin has been a little bit more on the
Speaker 2: hawkish side, the higher for longer arguments producing that ninety
Speaker 2: basis points round trip to the upside, most recently Vancanta,
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, So where does that leave us then,
Speaker 2: as we go through the rest of the year and
Speaker 2: we look at what happens to rates, what does that
Speaker 2: do to net interest margin? Give us a sense of
Speaker 2: the sensitivity.
Speaker 3: Well, I think net interest margin obviously when you have
Speaker 3: higher rates, you have a better lending difference. You pay
Speaker 3: more in deposits, but you get more in lending. And
Speaker 3: there's a firmness in the market. But you know, rates
Speaker 3: are very very volatile, so I would shy away from
Speaker 3: predicting a number in just the first quarter of the year.
Speaker 4: Ven Kat, good morning, it's guy. As you say, the
Speaker 4: rates market is very volatile. Yet Q one thick revenue
Speaker 4: looks a little light. Why is that and why are
Speaker 4: we seeing big differences beginning to emerge between banks in
Speaker 4: terms of the way there before in that space? Great?
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think first of all, within the Barclays
Speaker 3: investment banking revenue complex, as in any quarter, you'll have
Speaker 3: some ups and downs. When we look at our own
Speaker 3: thick business, one part of it, which is one of
Speaker 3: our strategic areas, securitized products, has done very well on
Speaker 3: the right side. In Europe, here a little weaker. And
Speaker 3: then on equities, and we're talking from our equities flow
Speaker 3: here at Barclays we've done extremely well. So on FIK,
Speaker 3: I think it's a bit of the complexion of the
Speaker 3: business and it's a bit about where the movement has been.
Speaker 3: But I think it's hard to read into any one
Speaker 3: bank in any one quarter. You've got to see the
Speaker 3: trend over a longer time.
Speaker 4: Okay, do you think the US thick environment is more
Speaker 4: conducive to profitability than the European thick environment. It's interesting.
Speaker 4: We're going to be talking to BNP Parabar in just
Speaker 4: a moment, and I'm kind of interested in the compare
Speaker 4: and contrast between the way that European banks are performing
Speaker 4: in that space and US bank to performing in that space. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, for instance, Barclays we have a
Speaker 3: fairly big US presence, as you know. I think what
Speaker 3: you've seen in the US market is more active positioning.
Speaker 3: The market is of course broader across the full range
Speaker 3: of credit and the full and include securitized products. So
Speaker 3: I think there's a greater and richer opportunity in the
Speaker 3: product set in the US, which lends itself to greater
Speaker 3: performance by those with bigger US exposures.
Speaker 1: It's pretty in London that you again for joining us
Speaker 1: this morning to offset though some of that kind of
Speaker 1: depression that.
Speaker 2: You're seeing in the thick area.
Speaker 1: Talk to us a little bit how you're viewing kind
Speaker 1: of the capital markets the deal flow as well. Is
Speaker 1: there enough momentum there or early signs of momentum there
Speaker 1: to offset some of the pain perhaps in the bond business.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think deal flow and the equity markets
Speaker 3: themselves have been starting to show some buoyancy. As I said,
Speaker 3: we are on our equity floor here and then our
Speaker 3: own numbers and equities have shown an uptake for this
Speaker 3: quarter versus the same quarter last year. I think deal
Speaker 3: flow is increasing, you know, in our own energy business
Speaker 3: or our sustainability business and the transition business. We've seen
Speaker 3: nine deals in the last quarter and a bit, and
Speaker 3: so I do think that there is a deal flow happening.
Speaker 3: I think though it's very early. You've got to give
Speaker 3: it a quarter or two to cement.
Speaker 1: Is Barkleys prepared to capitalize on that when it does
Speaker 1: ultimately come to fruition, when it does actually see a
Speaker 1: little bit more momentum is Barkley's positioned to capitalize on that.
Speaker 1: Given a little bit of an exodus in terms of
Speaker 1: your bankers as well as lower advisory fees relative to
Speaker 1: your American peers, how do you tackle that?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: It has been and it is a very very important
Speaker 3: area of focus for us. We want to increase what
Speaker 3: we do in MNA, we want to do increase what
Speaker 3: we do in equities. We have hired a lot of
Speaker 3: very talented bankers. We have focused on the energy transition,
Speaker 3: We have focused across the important sectors of technology and healthcare,
Speaker 3: and so we absolutely are positioned to capitalize on it
Speaker 3: and you should see the results over the coming quarters.
Speaker 3: It's not something that's won in days, weeks and months,
Speaker 3: but over a longer period of time, and we've put
Speaker 3: the sustained investment and skills behind it and we will
Speaker 3: continue to do so.
Speaker 2: Can I ask you about M and A within the
Speaker 2: UK market, Vencat, we've got a bit of M and
Speaker 2: A taking place. Barclay's you yourselves in the process of
Speaker 2: acquiring Tesco's retail bank offering. We also have consolidation with
Speaker 2: Nationwide buying Virgin Money. The building society space. We see
Speaker 2: consolidation there as well. Is this a sector where we'll
Speaker 2: see more and are you going to play more of
Speaker 2: a role in that? Well.
Speaker 3: I think at any time you have an inflection in
Speaker 3: the interest rate cycle as we have had, with changing
Speaker 3: capital models and changing consumer regulation, it stresses business models
Speaker 3: and it therefore drives some amount of M and A.
Speaker 3: I think our own acquisition of Tesco Bank is something
Speaker 3: that's win win for Tesco and for us. We were
Speaker 3: looking to grow our unsecured lending and I think you
Speaker 3: will see other institutions look at that. We have been
Speaker 3: very very clear our plan for growth is predicated on
Speaker 3: as an organic one obviously in our areas of focus,
Speaker 3: which are largely UK centered, our UK Consumer Bank, which
Speaker 3: has had strong earnings this quarter, our UK Corporate Bank,
Speaker 3: and our private banking and wealth. If we see some
Speaker 3: attractive opportunities which are tractable and reasonably integrated, we will
Speaker 3: look at them. But that's not the focus and thrust
Speaker 3: of our plan.
Speaker 2: And talking about the UK Venkat, what are you seeing
Speaker 2: in terms of credit impairments in the UK, any areas
Speaker 2: of concern or any areas that are performing stronger than
Speaker 2: you would have anticipated.
Speaker 3: Well, I think the UK continues to show strength in
Speaker 3: the economy. You know, there are minor takeups in unemployment
Speaker 3: and so on, but in the broad scheme of things,
Speaker 3: growth is strong, employment is strong. Productivity has to grow.
Speaker 4: But that's a.
Speaker 3: Great focus of both of both sides of the house.
Speaker 3: In the UK, our credit stats are very very strong.
Speaker 3: We continue in the UK to outperform estimates quarter after
Speaker 3: quarter in a row, and so we feel very strong.
Speaker 3: We feel good about the strength of the UK consumer
Speaker 3: and UK credit and that's part of our growth strategy
Speaker 3: in UK.
Speaker 4: Blending Venkatz kind of just picking up on that. Then
Speaker 4: A do you think this is a is a country
Speaker 4: that needs rate cuts right now? Is that your sense
Speaker 4: is you sound quite positive if I'm being honest about
Speaker 4: what you're saying.
Speaker 2: In the UK.
Speaker 4: Use the word strength a lot. So do we need
Speaker 4: rate cuts? And the second thing is it is likely
Speaker 4: we are going to see a change of government. What
Speaker 4: do you think the change of government implications are for
Speaker 4: Barclays And do you think you are looking at a
Speaker 4: higher tax regime going forward post that election?
Speaker 3: So, first of all, I think one of the most
Speaker 3: attractive things about the UK in this year in which
Speaker 3: there are elections all around the world is that there
Speaker 3: is relatively little difference in economic policy between labor and
Speaker 3: Conservative so as far as industry goes, as far as
Speaker 3: the financial sector goes, indeed, as far as the economy goes,
Speaker 3: I think that's a great source of strength because political change,
Speaker 3: I think is unlikely to introduce volatility, certainly nowhere compared
Speaker 3: to what it was ten twenty thirty years ago in
Speaker 3: the UK in differences between the two parties. So I
Speaker 3: think that's a great strength of the UK, the commitment
Speaker 3: of both sides to growth, to productivity and to business.
Speaker 3: And so I do feel strongly about the UK, and
Speaker 3: I feel strongly about the momentum of the country.
Speaker 4: Do you think, okay, we'll come out with the rates questions,
Speaker 4: just to say, do you think though that there is
Speaker 4: a greater likelihood that the financial sector in particular, which
Speaker 4: has had a raised tax burden of late, even under
Speaker 4: the current administration, we'll see that penalty going higher. And
Speaker 4: do you think if we do see increased taxation in
Speaker 4: the UK that that will be compensated for by lower
Speaker 4: rates potentially on the monetary side. Wondering what the balance
Speaker 4: looks like so.
Speaker 3: Well, it's hard to say what the balance looks like
Speaker 3: because the rate policy comes from one side, which is
Speaker 3: the Bank of England, and the fiscal policy comes from Treasury.
Speaker 3: So I think as far as fiscal policy goes in
Speaker 3: the UK, growth is the most important thing. That is
Speaker 3: the way that we can fund the future of the economy.
Speaker 3: And as far as taxation goes, look I think the
Speaker 3: governments and the government today and the Labor Party both
Speaker 3: understand the importance of growth and the importance of balanced taxation.
Speaker 3: So I'm again quite hopeful on the country.
Speaker 1: Venkatt, let's build on that a little bit. When people
Speaker 1: talk about how they approach the UK, there seems to
Speaker 1: be a lot of questions about why the IPO market,
Speaker 1: specifically in London isn't catching up to some of the
Speaker 1: strength that at least you're talking about. Is there some
Speaker 1: sort of rebound in the London IPO market in the
Speaker 1: near future, and if not, what does it need to
Speaker 1: get there.
Speaker 3: I think that's a very very good question. I think
Speaker 3: the equity market in the UK and equity risk culture
Speaker 3: needs a shot in the arm to be frank. I
Speaker 3: think that it's important for companies to list in the UK,
Speaker 3: especially for life sciences, technology companies and it needs many
Speaker 3: things which are slowly coming together. There's a part of
Speaker 3: it which is regulation. There's a part of it which
Speaker 3: is equity investment and people buying more stocks, pension funds
Speaker 3: buying more stocks. And we think that some of the initiatives,
Speaker 3: for instance, the public flotation of the governments share of
Speaker 3: Netwest should be important aspects of that. And then the
Speaker 3: entire ecosystem of the UK and innovation in the UK
Speaker 3: coming to fruition in the IPO market is really important
Speaker 3: and Barclays is trying to play a critical and positive
Speaker 3: role in that. It will take time. It will take
Speaker 3: time to undo what has having been happening over twenty
Speaker 3: to thirty years.
Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you very much, thank you for your time.
Speaker 2: We appreciate you. CSN Categoration now the CEO of Barclays