WEBVTT - C. S. Venkatakrishnan Talks Barclays' Net Interest Margin

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's focus now on numbers out of Berkleys. The first

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<v Speaker 2>quarter investment banking revenue coming in at three point three

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<v Speaker 2>to three billion pounds. That is broadly similar to the

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<v Speaker 2>estimate of three point three to five billion. The net

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<v Speaker 2>interest income entirely in line with the estimates. Let's dive

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<v Speaker 2>into a bit more detail though. I'm very pleased to

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<v Speaker 2>say that joining us now, Cspncate Krishnan, the CEO of

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<v Speaker 2>Barkleys Vencat, a real pleasure to have you with us today.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for joining us. We want to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about net interest margin, want to talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>investment banking part of the business. I'll go to the

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<v Speaker 2>net interest margin story first. If I could entirely inlign

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<v Speaker 2>with estimates that number. This morning, yesterday we saw Lloyd's

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<v Speaker 2>reporting something a little different. Under a bit of pressure

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<v Speaker 2>as consumers shop around for higher rates of interest on

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<v Speaker 2>savings products. How should we look at net interest margin

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<v Speaker 2>with all the volatility around rate expectations? What's your sensitivity

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<v Speaker 2>to the rate environment that.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Anna, thank you very much for having me and

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<v Speaker 3>as you say, these results are entirely in line with

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<v Speaker 3>our expectations and with what we put out on our

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<v Speaker 3>investor Day about ten weeks ago. At that point we

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<v Speaker 3>said that we had a target for twenty twenty six

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<v Speaker 3>returns of twelve percent, ten percent and twenty four Our

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<v Speaker 3>first quarter rot is twelve point three percent, which is

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<v Speaker 3>entirely in line. Our income numbers are in line, our

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<v Speaker 3>costs are in line, and our capitalization is in the

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<v Speaker 3>middle of our range at thirteen point five percent on

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<v Speaker 3>CET one. As far as net interest income goes, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the rates markets have been volatile. There's been a round

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<v Speaker 3>trip approximately of ninety bases points down ninety bases points

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<v Speaker 3>back up in the tenure guilt in the UK, and

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<v Speaker 3>roughly the same numbers in the US, and so it

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<v Speaker 3>is very early. Our numbers are in line with what

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<v Speaker 3>we said. We've seen deposit growth, we've seen lending growth

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<v Speaker 3>in mortgages and in credit, and so we're pleased with that.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's one quarter in a longer journey of three years.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, it is. I mean some of the talk at

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<v Speaker 2>the margin has been a little bit more on the

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<v Speaker 2>hawkish side, the higher for longer arguments producing that ninety

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<v Speaker 2>basis points round trip to the upside, most recently Vancanta,

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<v Speaker 2>as you mentioned, So where does that leave us then,

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<v Speaker 2>as we go through the rest of the year and

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<v Speaker 2>we look at what happens to rates, what does that

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<v Speaker 2>do to net interest margin? Give us a sense of

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<v Speaker 2>the sensitivity.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think net interest margin obviously when you have

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<v Speaker 3>higher rates, you have a better lending difference. You pay

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<v Speaker 3>more in deposits, but you get more in lending. And

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<v Speaker 3>there's a firmness in the market. But you know, rates

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<v Speaker 3>are very very volatile, so I would shy away from

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<v Speaker 3>predicting a number in just the first quarter of the year.

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<v Speaker 4>Ven Kat, good morning, it's guy. As you say, the

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<v Speaker 4>rates market is very volatile. Yet Q one thick revenue

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<v Speaker 4>looks a little light. Why is that and why are

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<v Speaker 4>we seeing big differences beginning to emerge between banks in

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<v Speaker 4>terms of the way there before in that space? Great?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So I think first of all, within the Barclays

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<v Speaker 3>investment banking revenue complex, as in any quarter, you'll have

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<v Speaker 3>some ups and downs. When we look at our own

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<v Speaker 3>thick business, one part of it, which is one of

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<v Speaker 3>our strategic areas, securitized products, has done very well on

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<v Speaker 3>the right side. In Europe, here a little weaker. And

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<v Speaker 3>then on equities, and we're talking from our equities flow

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<v Speaker 3>here at Barclays we've done extremely well. So on FIK,

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's a bit of the complexion of the

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<v Speaker 3>business and it's a bit about where the movement has been.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think it's hard to read into any one

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<v Speaker 3>bank in any one quarter. You've got to see the

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<v Speaker 3>trend over a longer time.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, do you think the US thick environment is more

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<v Speaker 4>conducive to profitability than the European thick environment. It's interesting.

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<v Speaker 4>We're going to be talking to BNP Parabar in just

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<v Speaker 4>a moment, and I'm kind of interested in the compare

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<v Speaker 4>and contrast between the way that European banks are performing

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<v Speaker 4>in that space and US bank to performing in that space. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I think, you know, for instance, Barclays we have a

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<v Speaker 3>fairly big US presence, as you know. I think what

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<v Speaker 3>you've seen in the US market is more active positioning.

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<v Speaker 3>The market is of course broader across the full range

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<v Speaker 3>of credit and the full and include securitized products. So

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's a greater and richer opportunity in the

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<v Speaker 3>product set in the US, which lends itself to greater

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<v Speaker 3>performance by those with bigger US exposures.

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<v Speaker 1>It's pretty in London that you again for joining us

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<v Speaker 1>this morning to offset though some of that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>depression that.

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<v Speaker 2>You're seeing in the thick area.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk to us a little bit how you're viewing kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the capital markets the deal flow as well. Is

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<v Speaker 1>there enough momentum there or early signs of momentum there

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<v Speaker 1>to offset some of the pain perhaps in the bond business.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So I think deal flow and the equity markets

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<v Speaker 3>themselves have been starting to show some buoyancy. As I said,

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<v Speaker 3>we are on our equity floor here and then our

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<v Speaker 3>own numbers and equities have shown an uptake for this

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<v Speaker 3>quarter versus the same quarter last year. I think deal

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<v Speaker 3>flow is increasing, you know, in our own energy business

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<v Speaker 3>or our sustainability business and the transition business. We've seen

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<v Speaker 3>nine deals in the last quarter and a bit, and

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<v Speaker 3>so I do think that there is a deal flow happening.

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<v Speaker 3>I think though it's very early. You've got to give

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<v Speaker 3>it a quarter or two to cement.

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<v Speaker 1>Is Barkleys prepared to capitalize on that when it does

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately come to fruition, when it does actually see a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more momentum is Barkley's positioned to capitalize on that.

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<v Speaker 1>Given a little bit of an exodus in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>your bankers as well as lower advisory fees relative to

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<v Speaker 1>your American peers, how do you tackle that?

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<v Speaker 4>Well?

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<v Speaker 3>It has been and it is a very very important

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<v Speaker 3>area of focus for us. We want to increase what

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<v Speaker 3>we do in MNA, we want to do increase what

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<v Speaker 3>we do in equities. We have hired a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>very talented bankers. We have focused on the energy transition,

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<v Speaker 3>We have focused across the important sectors of technology and healthcare,

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<v Speaker 3>and so we absolutely are positioned to capitalize on it

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<v Speaker 3>and you should see the results over the coming quarters.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not something that's won in days, weeks and months,

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<v Speaker 3>but over a longer period of time, and we've put

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<v Speaker 3>the sustained investment and skills behind it and we will

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<v Speaker 3>continue to do so.

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<v Speaker 2>Can I ask you about M and A within the

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<v Speaker 2>UK market, Vencat, we've got a bit of M and

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<v Speaker 2>A taking place. Barclay's you yourselves in the process of

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<v Speaker 2>acquiring Tesco's retail bank offering. We also have consolidation with

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<v Speaker 2>Nationwide buying Virgin Money. The building society space. We see

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<v Speaker 2>consolidation there as well. Is this a sector where we'll

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<v Speaker 2>see more and are you going to play more of

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<v Speaker 2>a role in that? Well.

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<v Speaker 3>I think at any time you have an inflection in

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<v Speaker 3>the interest rate cycle as we have had, with changing

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<v Speaker 3>capital models and changing consumer regulation, it stresses business models

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<v Speaker 3>and it therefore drives some amount of M and A.

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<v Speaker 3>I think our own acquisition of Tesco Bank is something

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<v Speaker 3>that's win win for Tesco and for us. We were

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<v Speaker 3>looking to grow our unsecured lending and I think you

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<v Speaker 3>will see other institutions look at that. We have been

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<v Speaker 3>very very clear our plan for growth is predicated on

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<v Speaker 3>as an organic one obviously in our areas of focus,

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<v Speaker 3>which are largely UK centered, our UK Consumer Bank, which

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<v Speaker 3>has had strong earnings this quarter, our UK Corporate Bank,

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<v Speaker 3>and our private banking and wealth. If we see some

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<v Speaker 3>attractive opportunities which are tractable and reasonably integrated, we will

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<v Speaker 3>look at them. But that's not the focus and thrust

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<v Speaker 3>of our plan.

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<v Speaker 2>And talking about the UK Venkat, what are you seeing

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of credit impairments in the UK, any areas

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<v Speaker 2>of concern or any areas that are performing stronger than

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<v Speaker 2>you would have anticipated.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think the UK continues to show strength in

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<v Speaker 3>the economy. You know, there are minor takeups in unemployment

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<v Speaker 3>and so on, but in the broad scheme of things,

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<v Speaker 3>growth is strong, employment is strong. Productivity has to grow.

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<v Speaker 4>But that's a.

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<v Speaker 3>Great focus of both of both sides of the house.

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<v Speaker 3>In the UK, our credit stats are very very strong.

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<v Speaker 3>We continue in the UK to outperform estimates quarter after

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<v Speaker 3>quarter in a row, and so we feel very strong.

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<v Speaker 3>We feel good about the strength of the UK consumer

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<v Speaker 3>and UK credit and that's part of our growth strategy

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<v Speaker 3>in UK.

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<v Speaker 4>Blending Venkatz kind of just picking up on that. Then

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<v Speaker 4>A do you think this is a is a country

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<v Speaker 4>that needs rate cuts right now? Is that your sense

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<v Speaker 4>is you sound quite positive if I'm being honest about

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<v Speaker 4>what you're saying.

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<v Speaker 2>In the UK.

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<v Speaker 4>Use the word strength a lot. So do we need

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<v Speaker 4>rate cuts? And the second thing is it is likely

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<v Speaker 4>we are going to see a change of government. What

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<v Speaker 4>do you think the change of government implications are for

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<v Speaker 4>Barclays And do you think you are looking at a

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<v Speaker 4>higher tax regime going forward post that election?

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<v Speaker 3>So, first of all, I think one of the most

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<v Speaker 3>attractive things about the UK in this year in which

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<v Speaker 3>there are elections all around the world is that there

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<v Speaker 3>is relatively little difference in economic policy between labor and

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<v Speaker 3>Conservative so as far as industry goes, as far as

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<v Speaker 3>the financial sector goes, indeed, as far as the economy goes,

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's a great source of strength because political change,

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<v Speaker 3>I think is unlikely to introduce volatility, certainly nowhere compared

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<v Speaker 3>to what it was ten twenty thirty years ago in

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<v Speaker 3>the UK in differences between the two parties. So I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's a great strength of the UK, the commitment

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<v Speaker 3>of both sides to growth, to productivity and to business.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I do feel strongly about the UK, and

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<v Speaker 3>I feel strongly about the momentum of the country.

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<v Speaker 4>Do you think, okay, we'll come out with the rates questions,

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<v Speaker 4>just to say, do you think though that there is

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<v Speaker 4>a greater likelihood that the financial sector in particular, which

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<v Speaker 4>has had a raised tax burden of late, even under

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<v Speaker 4>the current administration, we'll see that penalty going higher. And

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<v Speaker 4>do you think if we do see increased taxation in

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<v Speaker 4>the UK that that will be compensated for by lower

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<v Speaker 4>rates potentially on the monetary side. Wondering what the balance

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<v Speaker 4>looks like so.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's hard to say what the balance looks like

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<v Speaker 3>because the rate policy comes from one side, which is

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<v Speaker 3>the Bank of England, and the fiscal policy comes from Treasury.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think as far as fiscal policy goes in

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<v Speaker 3>the UK, growth is the most important thing. That is

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<v Speaker 3>the way that we can fund the future of the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>And as far as taxation goes, look I think the

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<v Speaker 3>governments and the government today and the Labor Party both

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<v Speaker 3>understand the importance of growth and the importance of balanced taxation.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'm again quite hopeful on the country.

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<v Speaker 1>Venkatt, let's build on that a little bit. When people

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<v Speaker 1>talk about how they approach the UK, there seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be a lot of questions about why the IPO market,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically in London isn't catching up to some of the

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<v Speaker 1>strength that at least you're talking about. Is there some

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<v Speaker 1>sort of rebound in the London IPO market in the

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<v Speaker 1>near future, and if not, what does it need to

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<v Speaker 1>get there.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's a very very good question. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the equity market in the UK and equity risk culture

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<v Speaker 3>needs a shot in the arm to be frank. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that it's important for companies to list in the UK,

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<v Speaker 3>especially for life sciences, technology companies and it needs many

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<v Speaker 3>things which are slowly coming together. There's a part of

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<v Speaker 3>it which is regulation. There's a part of it which

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<v Speaker 3>is equity investment and people buying more stocks, pension funds

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<v Speaker 3>buying more stocks. And we think that some of the initiatives,

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<v Speaker 3>for instance, the public flotation of the governments share of

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<v Speaker 3>Netwest should be important aspects of that. And then the

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<v Speaker 3>entire ecosystem of the UK and innovation in the UK

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<v Speaker 3>coming to fruition in the IPO market is really important

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<v Speaker 3>and Barclays is trying to play a critical and positive

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<v Speaker 3>role in that. It will take time. It will take

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<v Speaker 3>time to undo what has having been happening over twenty

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<v Speaker 3>to thirty years.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you, thank you very much, thank you for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>We appreciate you. CSN Categoration now the CEO of Barclays