1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 3: Fifteen Tunny, twenty five, thirty thirty five, Horny Cody five 4 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:20,440 Speaker 3: fifty and the kick as Black College Football Laura Stunner. 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and bob the lateral turn 6 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 3: a car on the inside. Gus lad. 7 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: Came off the field to night. 8 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 3: It's not the side of the dog in the fight, 9 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 3: it's the size of the fight in the dog. 10 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast on Mike 11 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: Calvary's joined as always by Mike Iell. This is the 12 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: group of five deep dive. We're going to get into 13 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: everything here in Week twelve. Orminder two fans out there 14 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: in the college Schoopol universe. We actually a fourteen regular 15 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: season weeks, a bonus regular season week this season, which 16 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 1: is good because it's gone way too fast, even though 17 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: we've been basically trying our best to tread water get 18 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: a winner. Two on the board. You did the heavy 19 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: lifting last week. I know will really appreciate that. But 20 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 1: we got some extra time. There's still time to turn 21 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: this season around late and there's some really interesting games 22 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: this week on the card, not just from a gambling perspective, 23 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: but also in terms of the college football playoff race, 24 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: is their bear trap being laid by the Spartans for 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: Boise State. We'll get into that during the episode, and 26 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: of course we're gonna kick it off as always with 27 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: a bit of positivity coming out of Week eleven. For 28 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 1: our hero segment, I and Elo, it seems as though 29 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: in the pre meeting you had one chambered ready to 30 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: go sell the floor is yours? 31 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, First, all you said, I finally got off the 32 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 2: schneid with a nice four in one week, which I 33 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: desperately even my one loss. I mean, there's every the 34 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: wrong side, but it didn't lose to a minute left 35 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: in the game. I under Yeah, that felt really good. 36 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: So in the spirit of me turning the season around, 37 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 2: I'm turn around and take an unlikely hero of the week. 38 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 2: I'm gonna give my boy Tim Beck Hero of the week, 39 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: the head coach for Coastal Carolina, who I've been very 40 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: hard on as a play caller and an offensive mind. 41 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 2: But then he saved himself because before the game against 42 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: app State he was doing a little segment with Matt 43 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 2: Berry and Dan Mullen, who, by the way, maybe a 44 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 2: hot take probably my favorite booth in college football. They 45 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 2: are so good together. They have so much fun. They 46 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 2: don't take themselves seriously. They usually have a lower level game, 47 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 2: and you can just tell those two are so such 48 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 2: good friends. It comes through in the booth. I think 49 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,239 Speaker 2: they're fantastic. Anyway. They're doing a segment. I just don't 50 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: even remember what it was for, but they were like cheers. 51 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 2: There was like a beer product and they were like, oh, 52 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 2: they were making a joke about chugging at Matthew Bear's. Oh, 53 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 2: we got to all be professional here. Well, they need 54 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 2: to turn around and Tim back is just shugging his 55 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 2: entire beer before the hours before the game. So Coastal 56 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 2: then goes on to score thirty eight points, the second 57 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 2: most they've scored since Week two. So it comes to 58 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 2: the argument, is Tim Beck better when he's a little 59 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: buzzed up. I mean, think about when you were in college, 60 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 2: the drunker you got, the better you got a beer 61 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: pong or to. 62 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: A degree, there's always a sweep. You needed to get 63 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: like three or four drinks in you, but not go 64 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: over the eight or nine threshold over. 65 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 2: The quarter between beer like two and a half and 66 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 2: five and a half that's. 67 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: When the elbow loosens up just in the right way. 68 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: You get a little bit of that arc on the show. 69 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 2: Sure, Beer Pong, Cornwall, you were better, So I think 70 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 2: you can make an argument Tim Beck is better after beer. 71 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 2: So if I see him chugging a beer pregame, I 72 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 2: might be on them again this week. But an honor 73 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: of Tim Back, we need to have a good show, 74 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 2: So Tim Back, let's have a good podcast. My hero 75 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 2: of the week the unlikely hero here. 76 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: I like that. That's a great I'm going to go 77 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: in a different direction. No hero whatsoever. It's villain tine. 78 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: We've never done a villain of the week. But I 79 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: as soon as the news broke and you shared it 80 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 1: with me on social media, I just kind of sat 81 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: at my computer, just staring at it for a good 82 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 1: thirty seconds, just slowly filling with rage. My villain of 83 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: the week Milton Overton, the Kenesaw State Athletic director who 84 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: had the unmitigated goal to fire head coach Brian Bohannon. 85 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: Coach bo was the OWL program. He's the only head 86 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: coach they've ever had, Like he built it literally from nothing. 87 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: He built the goddamn program from nothing to four FCS 88 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: playoff berths in a five year period before moving up. 89 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: And by the way, everyone in the universe, whether you're 90 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: playing the college football video game or doing preview season 91 00:04:58,080 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: with us in August, we're just picking up a mag 92 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: magazine and flip into the back. Everybody knew that Kennisau 93 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 1: was in a rebuild. It was a year zero. This 94 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: is their first year at FBS football. They weren't going 95 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,559 Speaker 1: to be good. They freaking beat Liberty. Did you see 96 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: that scene? Parents and players huggin Coach Bow looked like 97 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: the mayor of Kanisau. It was amazing. And then he 98 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: turns around in a three week period and fires this guy. Oh, 99 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: by the way, adding insult to injury, Coach Bow had 100 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: to come out and write the you know, communication wrongs 101 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: and say I'm not actually stepping down. I'm not quitting 102 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: on my team. I was forced out. I was fired. 103 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: Have some balls, Kennesaw State. Say you fired him. Don't 104 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: say we gave him the opportunity to resign. Bullshit. You 105 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: forced him out for no good reason. And by the way, 106 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 1: this isn't a program in the SEC that wants to 107 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: be bigger than they are, like a Tennessee or an 108 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: old miss where they're like, we got to compete for 109 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,919 Speaker 1: national champions So they went through years of quickly firing 110 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: coaches and trying to be the Alabamas and Georgia's of 111 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 1: the world. You're kenisaw, this is like day one. What 112 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: better shepherd for your program, steward for your program than 113 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: this guy? And they go ahead and force them out. 114 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: What a scumbag move. My villain of the week Milton Overton. 115 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: And by the way, I'm not the only one that 116 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: feels this way. The alumni are already circling the wagons. 117 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: They're coordinating a blackout in the crowd to stand in 118 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: unity with coach Bo because they think so much of 119 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: him and so little of Overton. You know what, you 120 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: may be getting the opportunity to resign yourself there, Milton. 121 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 1: All right, So my villain of the week coming from 122 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: Conference USA. 123 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 2: By the way, his name being Milton Overton is so 124 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 2: I mean, that just sounds like a Bond villain. But yeah, 125 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 2: this was an absolute crock of shit. And look at 126 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 2: if they fired him at the end of the season. Fine, 127 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 2: this is not a story. If they fire him at 128 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 2: the end of the year, why on God's Green Earth. 129 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 2: Do you need to do this now? Why you're not 130 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: winning another game the rest of the year. You weren't 131 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 2: gonna anyway. And it's like you mentioned, it's not like 132 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 2: you know you're Tennessee or Florida. You know Florida firing 133 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 2: billion napiers, so they can you know, if they know 134 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin's gonna come, or you have a top recruit 135 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: that's unhappy with the offense and you want to get 136 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 2: in an offensive minor. You want to be first at 137 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 2: the line of the best coordinator in the country. You're 138 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 2: Kanisa State, You're the back of the line. You're going 139 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 2: to be the back of the line. Whether you fired 140 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 2: him today or you fired him in April, you're getting 141 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 2: the last coach. I will bet you one thousand dollars 142 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: right now. I've never heard of the guy they're going 143 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 2: to hire. Guarantee you like, so you've. 144 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: Never heard of Hugh Freeze. I feel like this has 145 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: got Hugh Freezer all over it. Baby, Come on down 146 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: from the planes. It's not that far of a drive 147 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: from Auburn, Alabama to Kinda Saw. 148 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 2: At least, yes, this move made no sense. There's no 149 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 2: reason you're not getting a jump on the hiring cycle. 150 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: You're not getting You're not trying to save a recruiting class. 151 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 2: You're kanasas State. You're the worst team in the country. 152 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 2: This move is despicable and I absolutely hate it. And 153 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: Bohannon is now the first coach in history to go 154 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 2: from G five Hero of the Week to unemployed in 155 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 2: less than three weeks. And yeah, it completely socks and 156 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 2: I agree. This is a perfect villain of the week. 157 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: Now because my hate cup runneth over and I hit 158 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: you with a villain here out of week eleven, I 159 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: didn't have time to put together my thoughts on a hero. 160 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 1: You're the de facto hero. You went four in one 161 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: last week. Let's get to your best bet here in 162 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 1: week twelve. Keep this train rolling. You were laser focused. 163 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: All the reads were correct last week. What you got for. 164 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 2: Us well, I actually, just as I was taking that 165 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 2: last stip, if you're watching on YouTube, I'm drinking a 166 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 2: cone a big wave because it is I would call 167 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 2: this teal, I guess so I was trying to honor Timbeck, 168 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: but it actually I just realized works out double perfectly 169 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 2: because my best bets why minus two and a half 170 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 2: against Utah State we have talked about the crazy offseason 171 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 2: that Uta State had. This team is just in complete disarray. 172 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 2: They're two and seven. Their only FBS win was by 173 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 2: two points against Wyoming. They were out gained by one 174 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 2: hundred yards in that game. This team is terrible. Their 175 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 2: biggest issue is clearly the defense. They rank one hundred 176 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 2: and twenty six in the country in success rate. They're 177 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 2: the bottom ten against the run. Against the pass they 178 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 2: were allowing are ridiculous point eight yards to play. You 179 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: hand the ball off once it's second and three. So 180 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 2: in their last five games, three of their opponents have 181 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 2: scored at least fifty points and Washington Skates State scored 182 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 2: forty nine last week. So they're just giving up points 183 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: by the boatload. Kent State is the only team in 184 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: the country that has allowed more than four that has 185 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 2: allowed more than the forty two points per game Utah 186 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: State is allowing. Over the last few weeks. I think Hawaii, 187 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: their offense is really started to put it together. I've 188 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: been really impressed the offense over the last like threeish weeks. 189 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:33,960 Speaker 2: They put up thirty four on Nevada, twenty one on 190 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 2: Fresno State, but they moved about really well pair wins there. 191 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 2: They put up twenty seven on UNLV. They only lost 192 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 2: that game by two. I thought they played pretty well. 193 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 2: They had the blocked punt touchdown. Safety Ricky White did 194 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: his thing again. But Bradon Shaker looked really good. He's 195 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 2: coming off back to back three touchdown games and then 196 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: when before that he had four games four touchdowns rushing, 197 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 2: so he's playing good football. Not only do they have 198 00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 2: Ashlock Ashlock at receiver, but Nick Sinicle has you know, 199 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 2: established himself as that number two target in this offense, 200 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 2: which we were kind of unsure with the McBride eligibility issues. 201 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 2: Now they do have their two one to two weapon 202 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 2: and Utah State can't run the ball at all, so 203 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 2: their only real option is passing. But the problem is 204 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 2: one their quarterback is Spencer Petris Goos thinks, and two 205 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 2: I like Hawaii's pass defense. You know defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman, 206 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 2: he's he was a defensive back specialists. He was the 207 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 2: dba's coach for the Jets during the Rivus Island days. 208 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 2: Hawaii rakes eighteenth in the country in coverage grade, and 209 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 2: their job is a lot easier without Jalen Royals. The 210 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: star Utah state wide receiver is out for the season, 211 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: which sucks. But this team averages two hundred and ninety 212 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 2: receiving yards per game, and he averaged one hundred and 213 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 2: nineteen of them. They have been held under two hundred 214 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 2: and thirty passing yards in each of the last two 215 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 2: weeks since Orels got hurt, their two lowest passing output 216 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 2: since week two. The offense just is lifeless without him. 217 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:01,599 Speaker 2: And you look at Hawaii. You know this is the 218 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 2: time of year. You start looking down where why is 219 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 2: four and six? Right now? They need to win out 220 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 2: to make a ball which is important to a program 221 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 2: like this under Timmy Chang. So I think they get 222 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 2: this one. I'm going to roll with the Rainbow Warriors. 223 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 2: Here go both. 224 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: So this number being below three, it's totally predicated on 225 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: the historical data when it comes to Hawaii going to 226 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: the mainland. In the database dating back to two thousand 227 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: and three, why has only cash forty one percent of 228 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: tickets against the spread on the mainland. That's dead last 229 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: in the group of five dating back to two thousand 230 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,559 Speaker 1: and three. Now, why do I have that written down? 231 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: By the way, It's because it was in my G 232 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: five high five picks. I'm also on the bows here. 233 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: I think it's the right side for a lot of reasons, 234 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: and even that number right there in terms of there 235 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: against the spread performance dating back over twenty years. The 236 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: reality is this year they've looked pretty good in those trips. 237 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: They went fifteen rounds of San Diego State. Yes, it 238 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: was a loss, but they acquitted themselves well against an 239 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: asset team that at least had played better at home 240 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 1: the season. And then, as you mentioned, if they beat 241 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: Fresno on the road, they come back, they rally in 242 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. They showed a lot of fight there, 243 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: and this Uta State defense has no fight. You got 244 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: into it. But I even have more stats to share, 245 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: and I think we should because this defense is a 246 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: special kind of bad. In terms of available yards allowed percentage, 247 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: they're one hundred and twenty eighth in the country. Any 248 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 1: opportunity that teams have to move the ball, they do it. 249 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: They've given up forty five points or more in six 250 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 1: of nine games, and that includes forty five points to Temple, 251 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 1: which I think counts for seventy points against a regular 252 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 1: FBS team. So I'm with you here. I think Shager, 253 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: as long as they can protect him. That is the 254 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,839 Speaker 1: difference because when you look at Utah State, not only 255 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: are they awful in terms of coverage and tackling and 256 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: pass rush, but they don't create negative plays there one 257 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty six in that regard, And when Shagar 258 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: gets battered, they usually fall apart. Offensively. He took six 259 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: sacks and only completed forty percent of his passes in 260 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: a narrow loss against UNLV sacked eight times against Boise 261 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: when they only scored seven points. But when they keep 262 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: them upright and they keep him protected, he's a gamer. 263 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: He's somebody that gives him a chance to win laden 264 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 1: games as well. So with a number under the key 265 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: figure of three, I think this is the right play. 266 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: So I like that a lot. To get our program started, 267 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: I'd go with my best bet. I had a rough 268 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,719 Speaker 1: week last week, so you know, in those opportunities, you 269 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: got to go back to the tried and true, the 270 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 1: bread winners. North Texas overs Baby get me back involved 271 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: the mean green taken on UTSA. The numbers sen it's 272 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 1: seventy two and a half, the highest on the board 273 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: here in week twelve. That doesn't scare me. Well, Friday 274 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: Night lights. I think this is going to be an 275 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: absolute shootout. Listen, it's been, as I mentioned, not just 276 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: a rough week last week, about two weeks in a 277 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 1: row for me. But I think we got a big 278 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: gift in Army dispatching North Texas fourteen to three, because 279 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: in my opinion, it is deflating this number, and the 280 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,719 Speaker 1: perception is that North Texas took a step backwards offensively, 281 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 1: but in my estimation, when you look at it, that 282 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: was just the absolute dream scenario for Army because let's 283 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: keep in mind North Texas has been the overteam this 284 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 1: entire season. They're seven to two to the over offensively 285 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: scoring a hundred and seven excuse me, offensively points per 286 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: game seventeenth in the country, defensively points per game one 287 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: hundred and nineteenth, total offense third, total defense one hundred 288 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: and twentieth. So just absolutely the needle going and opposite directions, 289 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: depending which side of the ball has it in North 290 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: Texas games. But of their seven games that went over 291 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: this year, blowing past the over, I think that's the 292 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: fear factor. There's not been that many games with a 293 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: number north of seventy this year. In terms of the 294 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: running clock on first downs and a lot of teams 295 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: playing keep away. They've gone over in those seven games 296 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: where they cash by an average of sixteen and a 297 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: half points per game. So blowing past it and the 298 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: Army buzz saw that they just talked about a perfect 299 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: Army script for Bryson daily everything that they did. But 300 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: you look at North Texas offensively, they only had six 301 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 1: drives in the whole game, a red zone field goal, 302 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: a turnover on downs of the two, a pick in 303 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: the end zone, a pick in the end zone. That 304 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: was four of their six drives. So I'm just throwing 305 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: out that data sample because that is not what you're 306 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: going to get with two lightning quick tempo teams here. 307 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: North Texas fourth and seconds per play, utsa ninth and 308 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: second for play. So just on that alone, I'm excited 309 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: about this. Then you fold in the quarterback play. We 310 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: talked about Chandler Morris. I didn't talk that much about 311 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: own McCown in the preseason. I had a different pick 312 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: for the road runner. As a quarterback, he's been fantastic 313 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: in the last month. He's averaged three hundred and forty 314 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: eight total yards per game across the last month, thirteen 315 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: total touchdowns to just two interceptions, and I think that's 316 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: the difference him taking that step up to a Frank 317 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: Harris light kind of level. It's elevated their entire offense 318 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: the last three games forty two point three points per game, 319 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: including an upset of Memphis, really has given them a 320 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: shot in their arm in terms of their bowl chances. 321 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: And that's the only thing that could scare me away. 322 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: In these late season MAC Conference USA games where you 323 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: have some of these teams that are drawing dead from 324 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: a bowl eligibility standpoint, that is not the case with 325 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: the road Runners and the Me and Green here. They 326 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: also get an opportunity to take a beat after upsetting Memphis. 327 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: They got a weak rest in between. I think there's 328 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: less of a letdown factor. So my numbers call for 329 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: this to be seventy seven seventy two and a half 330 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: is absolutely overplay for me. 331 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you brought this game up, because this 332 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 2: is a game I actually have on my cutting room 333 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 2: floor that I was gonna ask you at the end. 334 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: I initially had this as my in my high five 335 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 2: and I as North Texas minus one and a half. 336 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 2: I was initially I actually started to write up to 337 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 2: be ingreenient. I was halfway through it, changed my mind, 338 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 2: kicked it to the cutting room floor, and it's for 339 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 2: exactly what you're talking about is account has been awesome 340 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 2: in the last month, and you know, you look at 341 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: the UTSA offensive numbers, they're like one hundred and twelve 342 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 2: or something in that range. They can't run the ball 343 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 2: at all, and they basically stopped trying to run the ball, 344 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 2: which is what's helped their play. And like you said, 345 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 2: mccow's coming up back to back four touchdown games. So 346 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 2: I ended up basically bumping them off because I was 347 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 2: afraid a little bit of how good UTSA is playing 348 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 2: on offense. So that actually lends itself nicely tier over, 349 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 2: especially because you know they're gonna be throwing the ball 350 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 2: all game. Utsa's run the defense has actually been pretty good, 351 00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 2: So I just think you see both teams just throw, 352 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 2: they're gonna you know, forty eight pass attempts on both 353 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,679 Speaker 2: sides of this game. Yeah, I actually kind of like 354 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 2: you're over more than my North Texas play. So yeah, 355 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 2: I'm glad you went with this one. 356 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: We move on to the G five High five. 357 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 3: The G five High five should be high five high. 358 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: Five five picks, bundle them together in terms of a 359 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 1: two pack of round robin picks, or by threes or 360 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: just you know, a four pick parlay. In this case, 361 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: because I've already mentioned Hawaii, we are you know, of 362 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: like mind on that with the bows. So we each 363 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: have two this week in the segments. I'll kick it 364 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: to you first. I and Elo as the hot hand. 365 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 2: I'm going to the mac again. Cashed it last week, 366 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 2: so this is Wednesday, so hopefully you're listening early. Get 367 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 2: it in quick. I'm actually fading the team, not really fading, 368 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 2: but I'm going against the team that I cashed last week. 369 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 2: Give me Akron plus fifteen and a half against Northern Illinois. 370 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 2: This is just as simple. I think this number is 371 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 2: too big. You know, I talked about Akron a few 372 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: weeks ago when I cashed them on the money line. 373 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,640 Speaker 2: They've just been underrated all year because their non conference 374 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 2: was brutal and you know, they lost some close games 375 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 2: they probably should have won. But I just think they're 376 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 2: continuing to be underrated because of their Akron and they 377 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 2: got what two wins on the year, but you look 378 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 2: at their last four games, they lost a Bowl and 379 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 2: Green by seven. Bowling Green is both of our picks 380 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 2: to win the MAC. They lost a Western Michigan by ten. 381 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 2: They beat eas Eastern Michigan, that was one I had, 382 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 2: and then they lost to Buffalo by eleven. Ben Finley 383 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 2: is an experienced quarterback. He provides a steady hand for them. 384 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 2: He's nothing special, but he's fine. Michigan State transfer Jordan 385 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,360 Speaker 2: Simmons has been running the ball really well for the Zips. Recently. 386 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 2: They're thirty eighth in the country in success right. They've 387 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 2: been leaning on that more and more deeper into the season. 388 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 2: And then we know this Northern Illinois team. They want 389 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 2: to run the ball and they want to play defense. 390 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 2: They want to shorten the game. There's not a team 391 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 2: that profiles as like a blow your doors off as 392 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 2: a big favorite. They just want to get in, get 393 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 2: their business done, and get out. They're not really an 394 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 2: explosive offense, and their strength is running the ball. And 395 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 2: I think Ackrons defense, while not anything ride Home about, 396 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 2: they've been much better at defending the run than the past. 397 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 2: So Akron's also coming off of bye week here, so 398 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,880 Speaker 2: Joe Morehead has had more time to prepare. They've had 399 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 2: like eleven days to prepare. And you look at this 400 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 2: Northern Illinois team. As much as they've had a good year, 401 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 2: the only team they've beaten all year by more than 402 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 2: fourteen is Western Illinois in the season opener. So again, 403 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 2: they're just not a team that blows teams out. That's 404 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 2: just not how they play. They're short in the game, 405 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 2: run the ball, play defense. I think that suits well 406 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 2: for Aker. I think you're gonna do the same thing. 407 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 2: I think to keep it close on Wednesday night. I 408 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 2: like this anything north of fourteen. 409 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: I think I did a compliment here. I have not 410 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: looked in the app. I don't know if Stucky's on it, 411 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: but this feels like a Stucky Mac play. This is 412 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: definitely deep in the trash, but also just pointing out 413 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: that there's not a huge spread differential between team's top 414 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: to bottom, and certainly a Northern Illinois team that struggles 415 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: offensively to create big, explosive plays and absolutely lay huge 416 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: numbers on people, you're even if they are to cover 417 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 1: this number, I don't feel I would not feel comfortable 418 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: with this offense being able to make it sweat free. 419 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: Certainly like I got to be up with twenty eight 420 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 1: points in the fourth quarter to not sweat this one out. 421 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 2: I pass on that. 422 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: So I think, just from a situational spot, given how 423 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: much we know about the Mac and how much there's 424 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 1: kind of a log jam of mediocre teams in that conference, 425 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 1: whereas you know, at least with this dog, you have 426 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: a quarterback you can trust. I mean, that's a lot 427 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: more than you can say about many teams at the 428 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: bottom of the G five. So I think your point 429 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: is well taken there. 430 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I just looked. As of Tuesday night, Stucky has 431 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 2: not bet it yet, but I agree with you. I 432 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if I'll be very happy if I 433 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 2: see this come in Wednesday morning, because obviously he is 434 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 2: the Mac maestro. This was actually the first bet I 435 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 2: made this week. Acroed open to eighteen and a half 436 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 2: and I was like, that's crazy. So it's the first 437 00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 2: bet I made zips eighteen and a half. It's been 438 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 2: bet it's all the way down to fifteen and a half. 439 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 2: Like I said, I still like it. I think I 440 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 2: like any more than two touchdowns, So get in as 441 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 2: soon as you can. I think these stand alone games 442 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,880 Speaker 2: tend to the line send move a lot more because 443 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 2: everyone's banexed. It's the only game. So hopefully listen to 444 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 2: this early Wednesday morning and you can jump on the zips. 445 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 1: Last week I hitched my wagon too, John Mattier. It 446 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: was a good decision against Utah State. They went ballistic offensively. 447 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: They scored forty nine points. It seemed like every drive 448 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 1: was a quality drive against the Aggies. They're on the 449 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: road in Albuquerque playing New Mexico. They're laying twelve and 450 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 1: a half. I don't think it's enough points under the 451 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: key number of two scores, two touchdowns, I should say, 452 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 1: because this reeks of the old BCS days, and by 453 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 1: that I mean style points in capitol letters. I just 454 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: wrote it up in the New York Post. At Bett Parks, 455 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: you can get Wazuo to make the College to Well 456 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 1: playoff at fifty to one, I think there's a very 457 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 1: good likelihood that they are going to be eleven and one, 458 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: which then means that there's certain elements of that play 459 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: that are outside of their control. Namely, they need Notre 460 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: Dame and Army to lose some games. If Army could 461 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: upset Notre Dame and potentially naming them out of an 462 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: at large spot and then have Army lose in the 463 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: AAC title game. Yes, these are things that are unlikely 464 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,719 Speaker 1: to happen in that exactly. 465 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 2: They need eight SEC teams to lose four games. 466 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: No, see, I disagree. I think when you look at 467 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 1: they beat that, you know, the doors off of Texas Tech. 468 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: They beat Washington on a neutral site. I agree the 469 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: rest of their schedule is underwhelming, but the fact of 470 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: the matter is, I think there's a little bit of 471 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: human nature and where the committee has them right now. 472 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: I believe they're at eighteen. Crazier things have happened in 473 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: terms of movement late in polls, and we still have 474 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: three weeks of the regular season left and an opportunity 475 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: on championship weekend for some teams that are sitting there 476 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 1: with one or two losses to get an extra loss 477 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: can potentially be bumped out of that at large conversation. 478 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: But that is not what this is all about. Although 479 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 1: last thing I'll say, ESPN's All State playoff predictor says 480 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,120 Speaker 1: Wazoo if they went out, they got a thirteen percent 481 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: chance to make it as an at large bid at 482 00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 1: fifty to one. I rolled the dice on that. I 483 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: think that's good value. But onto this game, onto the field, 484 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: let's talk it up. Wazoo needs to run it up. 485 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: That's it. This is what they have to do. It's 486 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: still human nature. If they can beat New Mexico by 487 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: forty five points and start running away from teams late 488 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: in the season, I think they have a better opportunity 489 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: to be at least a talking point in the room 490 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 1: of the College Football playoff Committee. I think they know 491 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: that they're certainly not going to play it conservatively if 492 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 1: they get an opportunity and they have the offense to 493 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: just lay it on New Mexico because the theme of 494 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: this week for me is give me as many awful 495 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: defenses on my car to either to fade them or 496 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: go over with as it can in Christ. New Mexico 497 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 1: is just dreadful on defense. I love this offense. I 498 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 1: love what Bronco has been able to do in year one. 499 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: And you usually see this in rebuild situations. You get 500 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 1: the right quarterback in, you get the right offensive coordinator, 501 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: even get yourself one or two playmakers. They have it 502 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: at running back. They certainly have it at Y Song 503 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: out on the perimeter now that he's healthy again. Great 504 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: job Bronco. You made this offense absolutely above average by 505 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: Mound West standards in one year. But this is easily 506 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 1: a bottom five run defense, and they've made lousy defenses 507 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,360 Speaker 1: look incredible. They get up forty nine points and six 508 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,640 Speaker 1: hundred yards to Wyoming at home. So when you look 509 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: at how low is the floor on this defense, they're subterranean. 510 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 1: They are just the moneyball reference. There's rich teams, there's 511 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: four teams, there's five hundred feet of crap, and then 512 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: there's us the five hundred feet of crap and down 513 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: below that's the New Mexico defense. So when I look 514 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: at this, I got a dual threat superstar on John 515 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: Mattier and a linebacking core that I think is going 516 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,879 Speaker 1: to be get picked Apart not only in that intermediate 517 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: passing game where Matier absolutely thrives, he is super elite 518 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 1: in the quick game, in that medium range ten to 519 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: twenty yards downfield, in that ten to nineteen yard window, 520 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 1: eighty four grade out of one hundred from PFF, and 521 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 1: that means slants, hitches, out routes in that window. New 522 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,719 Speaker 1: Mexico is bottom fifteen defending all three of those. So 523 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 1: I think the linebackers are going to be victimized here. 524 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: And then finally, the real question here laying twelve and 525 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: a half is if Wazoo does what I think they 526 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: can do, which is thread in a fifty burger, can 527 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: they get any stops? Now New Mexico go at least 528 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: down the stretch. I know that why Song was hurt 529 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: for a portion of it. But Colorado State held them 530 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: to six, San Diego State held them to twenty one. 531 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: That's all in the past three weeks. How did those 532 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: teams do it? Because they still gave up a lot 533 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,120 Speaker 1: of yards. Colorado State gave up four hundred and fifty 534 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: plus to the Lobos, almost four to seventy five against 535 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:16,959 Speaker 1: the Aztecs. 536 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 2: But both of those. 537 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 1: Defenses got off the field on third down thirty eight 538 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: percent of their conversions is all the Lobos could get. 539 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: That's the exact number dead on for Wazoo's third down 540 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: defense this year. And then finally, the Coops have been 541 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: solid in the red zone their top forty and scoring 542 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: percentage allowed. So I think they're going to get off 543 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 1: the field a few times. I think they're going to 544 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:36,679 Speaker 1: force them to kick some field goals or go for 545 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 1: it on fourth down. In the red zone. Maybe get 546 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 1: some stops there. I think it'll be enough. I'm not 547 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,439 Speaker 1: going to say it'll be sweat free because the New 548 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: Mexico offense does have my respect. The back door may 549 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 1: be open, but I'm going to go ahead and lay 550 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: any number below fourteen. 551 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it. I think, you know. My only 552 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 2: pushback would just be Washington State as like crazy splits 553 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 2: home versus the way they've been just a completely different 554 00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 2: team at home. But I agree, I think twelve still 555 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 2: probably too short, but I think this would be obviously 556 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 2: over fourteen if it was at home. Yeah, I like it. 557 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,440 Speaker 2: Speaking of fading defenses, I'll do as well. We'll stick 558 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 2: with the team here. Much better have my money. And 559 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 2: by the way, butcho's us some money because I think 560 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 2: you're like over four bet in Arkansas takeing. 561 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: No, that's not correct. I think I lost the last 562 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 1: one for sure, because you know, to quote my good 563 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: friend Brett McMurphy, this just in Louisiana. Just scored another 564 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: touchdown on the Arkansas State defense. Yeah, that was a 565 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,919 Speaker 1: brutal performance, but I think I I think I was 566 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 1: two and one with the Red Wolves before that. 567 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 2: Real quick tangent if Boise loses in the conference title game, 568 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,479 Speaker 2: which now looks like Colorado State, Louisiana or Tulane or 569 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 2: too lost Poise. 570 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 1: I think probably Louisiana to keep playing like this because 571 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 1: their metrics are really really strong, particularly in the offensive side. 572 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 1: I know the committee looks at things like that. 573 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 2: Julane's currently ranked ahead of them, and they'll pick up 574 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 2: wins over Navy, Memphis and Army, so that might propel them. Yeah. Anyway, Yeah, 575 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 2: I'm going to Arkansas State plus two and a half. 576 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 2: This is honestly more about just continuing to fade this 577 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 2: Georgia State team once again. You know, they're finally back 578 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,919 Speaker 2: at home after that four game road trip that we 579 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: cashed last week as JMU blew them out. But that 580 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 2: had to have taken a toll on them. It's just 581 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 2: been a long month in a long season. They've now 582 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 2: lost six games in a row. The defense is getting 583 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 2: worse and worse and worse. They have a lot of 584 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,119 Speaker 2: these thirty points four games in a row in seven 585 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 2: of their last nine games, they're giving up six point 586 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 2: four yards for play, and this is exactly what Arkansas 587 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 2: State's offense needs right now. The Red Wolves are team 588 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 2: that's been inconsistent all year cost us both money, but 589 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 2: the team has kind of been The offense has played 590 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 2: really well against bad defenses. If you look at them 591 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 2: on the year, this offense lit up Central Arkansas, Tulsa, 592 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,879 Speaker 2: South Alabama, Southern Miss and Troy, and then they lost 593 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 2: to the four best teams they played. And yeah, we 594 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 2: thought to keep it close in those games. They really didn't, 595 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 2: but they kind of they hummed against the bad teams, 596 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,959 Speaker 2: and Georgia State falls into that category of teams they 597 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,160 Speaker 2: should light up. Arkansas State has their issues on defense 598 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 2: as well, but I don't trust the Panthers offense to 599 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 2: be able to keep up with all the explosive weapons 600 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,160 Speaker 2: the Red Wolves have. We talked about Rucker and Jackson 601 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,679 Speaker 2: on the outside Rainer, So I just don't think at 602 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 2: this point Georgia State. I get they're back at home, 603 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 2: but they shouldn't really be favored against anybody right now, 604 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 2: and it's probably why they're ower and three against the 605 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 2: spread as a favorite. So give me Arkansas State. I 606 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 2: think they're a team that just profiles as feed up 607 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 2: on bad teams to get blown out by good teams. 608 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 2: They're playing a bad team. I don't know why there's 609 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:44,959 Speaker 2: the dog here. Give me the Red Wolves. 610 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 3: Butch better have my money. 611 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: I had Arkansas State and my G five five five. 612 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: I made it twenty five percent into the write up 613 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 1: and then I just hit the delete button because Butch 614 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: killed my vibe last week and I needed a little 615 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: break I needed. 616 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 2: As I was writing, I was like, he probably has this, 617 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 2: and just like that, I took a break from Trent 618 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 2: Dilfer last week. 619 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: I'm back to trentilfor this week, but on a different angle. 620 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 1: UAB Memphis over sixty two and a half. I'm confused 621 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: by this total. To be honest, Memphis AAC games have 622 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,200 Speaker 1: averaged sixty eight total points, but you had to take 623 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: into account that includes a stinker from USF in Bryce 624 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: Archie's first start, where Memphis won twenty one to three. 625 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: In the other five conference games, the total points scored 626 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 1: average seventy seven. I think that's a lot closer to 627 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 1: the games that they want to play, certainly a game 628 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 1: that they want to play here against a UAB team 629 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: that's rounding into, let's call it what it is, North 630 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 1: Texas esque. 631 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 2: Half team kind of shape. 632 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: Dating back to mid September, UAB has either scored or 633 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: allowed thirty five points at all but one game. So 634 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 1: basically every game that they're in has the potential for 635 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 1: a shootout. And Jalen Kittna has come in and he's 636 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 1: been bombing away. And because I've harped so much on Dilfer, 637 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 1: I've been there for the press conferences, I've watched the film. 638 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: We call Jacob Zino what he is, a check merchant. 639 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: I have to say, I'm a little bit shocked by 640 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 1: what's going on with their offense because in Kidneys starts. 641 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 2: By the way, everyone out there can cash there. Let's 642 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 2: let's put a conservatively plus eight fifty tickets on trendil 643 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 2: for not being the first villain of the week. 644 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 1: I know that that was a little bit shocking there. Yeah, 645 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 1: so I mean back to Kidney for a second, forty 646 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: two attempts per game. But here's the difference. Their passing 647 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 1: strategy has changed with him as the starting quarterback. No 648 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 1: more checkdown merchant. He's He's still hitting some short passes, 649 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,719 Speaker 1: no doubt, but he is a healthy at least by 650 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: comparison to Zino. Yards per attempt average and a dot 651 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 1: last two games is a dot is well north of 652 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: nine yards, which basically, you know, puts him well outside 653 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 1: of what UAB has been doing in the year and 654 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 1: a half of Dilpher's reign. Now he's up against a 655 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 1: Memphis defense that, let's call what is their subpar their 656 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 1: pass rushes outside the top one hundred. They live and 657 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: die on turnovers, seventeen takeaways this season for their defense, 658 00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: and when they don't get him, they give up huge 659 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: totally yard numbers. UAB has been a giveaway machine, nineteen 660 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 1: giveaways on the season. If I can get twenty four 661 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 1: points out of the Blazers, I think this one goes 662 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: way over into the alternate over sphere where it's like, 663 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: if you get two to one at north of seventy, 664 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 1: I think you go ahead and take that because this 665 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,360 Speaker 1: UAB defense is still horrific. There one hundred and twenty 666 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 1: third in rushing success defense. Hello, Mario Anderson, do you. 667 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,920 Speaker 2: Want to take some all bes Take Marco Anderson over 668 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 2: one hundred yards rushing and he's going to buy a 669 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 2: two touchdowns. He's going to torch his defense. You can 670 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 2: find the Bobby. 671 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's bananas that there's any if there are any 672 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: numbers on him below one hundred and forty nine rushing 673 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,080 Speaker 1: yards go for multiple touchdowns. Because you look at UAB, 674 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: they are bottom five in line yards and stuff rate 675 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 1: against the run, and when teams can run, what that 676 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 1: translates to is successful consistent drives. There are one hundred 677 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: and fourteenth in quality drives allowed. Memphis is top thirty. 678 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 1: When they have the ball offensively, they get next experienced quarterback. 679 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: They have a decent offensive line. I think it's a 680 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 1: foregone conclusion that they're going to go north of forty here, 681 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 1: and with his numbers just sending at sixty two and 682 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: a half, I just think that's way too low. So 683 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: I'm going to go ahead at the over here in 684 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 1: what should be an AAC shootout. All right, we're going 685 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: to finish up with the money line underdog parlay here 686 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: in week twelve. 687 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 2: Where is mine? Oh? Where is mine? Oh? 688 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: I'm going to go first in this spot because I'm 689 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 1: going to mention a team that you you have the 690 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 1: little pennant. It was go Pokes, Go Laradie, Laramie, everything 691 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,560 Speaker 1: Wyoming early in the season. Craig Bowl's gone. It's fine. 692 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 1: It was a disaster there for a bit, but you 693 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: know what, you took your medicine. You owned up to it, 694 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 1: and now things are changing because the Pokes got Whaley. 695 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 1: Harrison Whaley at running back in that backfield. He plays 696 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: one game against New Mexico twenty seven, carries one hundred 697 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 1: and seventy yards a touchdown. They score forty nine points 698 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 1: in that win. Oh and by the way, with running 699 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 1: the ball effectively. Really for the first time all season, 700 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,600 Speaker 1: Kateen Anderson, a freshman, comes out of nowhere and shreds 701 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 1: the Lobo for Lobos for three hundred and forty two yards, 702 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 1: three passing touchdowns, and a rushing score. Colorado State, I 703 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 1: don't want to say what I want to say about them, 704 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 1: so I'm going to try to put some euphemisms out 705 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: there and try to put on the kid gloves a 706 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 1: little bit. Yes, they control their own destiny in the 707 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 1: Mountain West Conference. They are undefeated. They can play their 708 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 1: way into a matchup with Boise. But now they got 709 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,280 Speaker 1: some pressure on their shoulders because it's there. And when 710 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 1: you look into the resume, they do not look like 711 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: a six and three team that's undefeated in conference. By 712 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 1: let's just call it what it is. Since the loss 713 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 1: of Tory Horden, the passing game is underwhelmed. Offensively, overall, 714 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 1: they're ninety fourth and success rate one hundred and ninth 715 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: inexplosiveness one hundred and thirteenth in havoc allowed. These numbers 716 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,960 Speaker 1: do not compute until you get to their victory diet. 717 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:51,960 Speaker 1: Let me go through what's been on the menu for them. 718 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 1: Wins over Northern Colorado, UTEP, Air Force, New Mexico, Nevada, 719 00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, this schedule. Where was this schedule? When I 720 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: went over on their win total a couple of years ago, 721 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 1: this would have been a nice, you know, free squares 722 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 1: all over the schedule. They're only going to win a 723 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 1: home win over San Jose State by seven. They still 724 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 1: gave up nearly four hundred and fifty total yards in 725 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,960 Speaker 1: that game to the Spartans. Very lucky in terms of 726 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 1: fumble recoveries this year. They're tied for tenth among G 727 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 1: five teams and falling on the football. Is this team 728 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,840 Speaker 1: a luckbox? I won't use the F word that we 729 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: throw around there, not that one you're thinking of the 730 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,880 Speaker 1: other one. Is this team a luckbox? I mean I 731 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 1: like their coaching staff, I like what they've been trying 732 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,320 Speaker 1: to do. But once they lost Tory Horden, I downgraded 733 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: them in my power rankings and also just in my 734 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,879 Speaker 1: head in terms of what I'm picturing. Oh, I got 735 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,799 Speaker 1: to win the game. They're down ten in the fourth quarter. 736 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,760 Speaker 1: Do they have the bullets to do it without Tory Horden? 737 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 1: I assumed no. 738 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 2: But they just keep winning. 739 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,800 Speaker 1: And I think they're overvalued in the market, and Wyoming 740 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,839 Speaker 1: has a new look offensively. If I can get them 741 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 1: at north of three to one in this game, I'm 742 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 1: punching the ticket on the money line. 743 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously, I don't hate it at all. I've been 744 00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 2: high on Wyoming year stupidly, Evan Smoda, not Josh Allen, 745 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 2: but you mentioned Waley's return, which I liked. Sam Scott, 746 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 2: their other running back are kind of filled in. He 747 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 2: actually missed last game. He's expected back. Jalen Sergent's going 748 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 2: to play. They announced he left the game hurt last 749 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 2: week after he put up like one hundred and fifty 750 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 2: yards and then he left hurt. He's going to play. 751 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,479 Speaker 2: The third receiver, Tyler King, He's coming back. He missed 752 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 2: last week, so I only should be at full strength. 753 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 2: So I don't hate it one bit. This has already 754 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 2: been a bit of a weird podcast. We started with 755 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,680 Speaker 2: me complimenting Tim back you were saying nice things about 756 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 2: the UAB offense. So when I get crazy, give me 757 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,760 Speaker 2: FAU plus one twenty again. 758 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 1: This is really the upside down from Stranger Things. This 759 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,400 Speaker 1: is this crossover episode. 760 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, David put the Stranger Things sound just kind of 761 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 2: in the background for the entire episode. We started as 762 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,439 Speaker 2: Temple's terrific. They are a bottom seven or eight team 763 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 2: in the country. You can argue bottom five, you could 764 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 2: argue ten. Whatever. You never want to see somebody get hurt. 765 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,360 Speaker 2: We Cam Fancher broke his collar bone against East Carolina. 766 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 2: He's out for the season. Cason Wiseman comes in. He 767 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 2: is a richer freshman. He came in and through for 768 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 2: He went twenty of thirty five passing through a pair 769 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:18,080 Speaker 2: of touchdowns. He also had forty one yards rushing. I 770 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,760 Speaker 2: thought he looked much better than Bancher has all season. 771 00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,120 Speaker 2: He costs me my underbat in that game, so he 772 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 2: owes me here, and you know, we know the FAU 773 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,439 Speaker 2: offense hasn't been good all season, But like I said, 774 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 2: I actually think Wiseman might be a step up. And 775 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,520 Speaker 2: the defense. I never really thought it's been completely bottom 776 00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,480 Speaker 2: of the barrel. But they also did just fire a 777 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,839 Speaker 2: defensive coordinator and run game coordinator. Kind of that Tom 778 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,880 Speaker 2: Herman save his job type move. But I expect to 779 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 2: see some more urgency in this game. I think, you know, 780 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 2: anytime you start firing assistance, he kind of lights a 781 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,879 Speaker 2: fire under everyone, staff, the players, everyone kind of perks 782 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,960 Speaker 2: up a bit. So they've been pretty decent against the 783 00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,040 Speaker 2: pass this year, and that's going to help against the 784 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 2: Temple offense that literally cannot run the ball at all. 785 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,240 Speaker 2: Kasier Brown is a solid cornerback. He's good in coverage. 786 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,200 Speaker 2: Philip Dunham is a really has really good ball skills 787 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 2: at safety. He's an Indiana transfer, and I think the 788 00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,360 Speaker 2: two of them should be able to work together to 789 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 2: slow down Dante Wright if he plays, because Wright has 790 00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,600 Speaker 2: missed the last two games with an injury, and he's 791 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 2: a guy where you know, Temple's terrible, he's a pretty 792 00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 2: talented kid. I don't know what his options might be 793 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,959 Speaker 2: in the portal. Does he shut it down, because without 794 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:33,720 Speaker 2: him this offense is nothing. So even if he plays, 795 00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 2: like I said, I still kind of just think Fau 796 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,720 Speaker 2: is a better team, as down as they am on Fau. 797 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,640 Speaker 2: If he doesn't, I don't know how Temple moves the ball. 798 00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,040 Speaker 2: We haven't. They haven't moved the ball in the last 799 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 2: two weeks. So we've talked a lot of shit on 800 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 2: the owls here, But to give me Fau plus one 801 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:54,880 Speaker 2: twenty against the other owls of Temple, Yeah, I feel like. 802 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 1: We need kind of a round robin Ol Bowl series. 803 00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 1: I guess for all these owl teams that are not 804 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,480 Speaker 1: gonna make it, let's I mean, Rice is doing their 805 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:09,240 Speaker 1: best to mount some wins late this the brow. 806 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 3: How many lips does it take to get to the toots. 807 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:13,520 Speaker 2: Yer old center of a toy pop? 808 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:20,160 Speaker 1: Let's find oute one, three three? 809 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,120 Speaker 3: How many licks does it take to get to the 810 00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:24,840 Speaker 3: two zero old center of a totsy pot? 811 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,359 Speaker 2: The world may never know. 812 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 1: That's it for us here at the Group of five 813 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: deep dive on Mike Calibery's He's Mike Ianello reminder. On 814 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,440 Speaker 1: the programming front, you can listen early now to all 815 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,879 Speaker 1: of Colin Sucks episodes dropping on Thursday nights, getting into 816 00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,400 Speaker 1: the full week twelve card from the bottom of the 817 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 1: trash all the way up to the Marquee matchups, and 818 00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,360 Speaker 1: that leads into our Saturday Show Live with Brett McCarthy, Stuck, 819 00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 1: Johnny Football, and myself. I know, what do you got 820 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:50,520 Speaker 1: for us? 821 00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,520 Speaker 2: You ever get a little insulted that half of Stocky's 822 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,160 Speaker 2: trash is just picks we give out as like our 823 00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 2: best sets. Like, hey, Stucky, our culture is not your costume, okay, buddy, 824 00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,400 Speaker 2: Like this is where, this is, where we live, is 825 00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,399 Speaker 2: our These are our shiny diamonds over here. 826 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 1: You know what, I'm fine with it because the fact 827 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,680 Speaker 1: of the matter is the G five keeps me employed. 828 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: I get to talk about this for a living. If 829 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 1: he wants to call it trash or people want to 830 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 1: make fun of maction or small time college basketball when 831 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,759 Speaker 1: I'm covering it in January, that's fine. I love it. 832 00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it every single week. It is fun 833 00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:24,759 Speaker 1: on the Saturday Show that I get to talk about 834 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,960 Speaker 1: the Marquee matchups. If you look at my performance on 835 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 1: the Live show when it comes to the market matchups, 836 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,719 Speaker 1: I've been killing it the entire season. I think it's 837 00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:33,960 Speaker 1: like all of the drudgery that we have to go 838 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,279 Speaker 1: through some really bad football, and I'm like, I get 839 00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,439 Speaker 1: to just take a Jalen Milroe rushing over this guy 840 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,479 Speaker 1: is like an all i've he would be. He would 841 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,000 Speaker 1: have five thousand toll yards offense in the Mountain West. 842 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:44,759 Speaker 1: This is incredible. 843 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,360 Speaker 2: I had a radio hit on Saturday and I was 844 00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 2: kind of blind to it, and I come in with 845 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,279 Speaker 2: notes prepared. I had all my notes on Tulane and 846 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 2: James Madison as like my favorite bats. And they're like, so, 847 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,839 Speaker 2: who do you got in a big Alabama LSU game? 848 00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 2: And I was like, can I interest you in Alanza Barnett. 849 00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:00,160 Speaker 1: No. 850 00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,240 Speaker 2: I was like, I don't know. I don't really addiction 851 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,200 Speaker 2: to these teams as I don't have many notes prepared. 852 00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 1: So if you are interested in the people that do 853 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,719 Speaker 1: have notes prepared for those marquee games, as I mentioned 854 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: Colin and Stuck, Brett McMurphy, Johnny Football, and myself on 855 00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,080 Speaker 1: the Saturday live show ten thirty Am over at the 856 00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,960 Speaker 1: BBC YouTube channel, make sure it hit subscribe like comments. 857 00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,520 Speaker 1: All those interactions really help us to grow the brand. 858 00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:23,759 Speaker 1: And a reminder of the next five star review, I'm 859 00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,640 Speaker 1: going to give out another ten dollars free parlay out 860 00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,480 Speaker 1: of my own pocket. You can put together picks that 861 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 1: we give out or your own. I don't really care 862 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,319 Speaker 1: how you do it, but just go ahead and give 863 00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,799 Speaker 1: us a five star review. Say whatever you want. It'd 864 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,759 Speaker 1: be helpful for you, know, for you to say something 865 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:42,280 Speaker 1: other than nice picks, blank wad or garbage or whatever. 866 00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,239 Speaker 1: But you know what, this is America. You are free 867 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:45,600 Speaker 1: to do whatever you want as long as you give 868 00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:47,959 Speaker 1: us five stars. That would be fantastic, and I'm happy 869 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,080 Speaker 1: to help you grow your bankroll. That's it for us, 870 00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,759 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. Have a great weekend here 871 00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,840 Speaker 1: in week twelve and chairship be as college football is 872 00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 1: steaming towards the postseason fewer games. That makes us sad 873 00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,200 Speaker 1: here in G five land, but at least we got 874 00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:02,440 Speaker 1: three more weeks, but enjoy it. 875 00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:19,040 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 876 00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,840 Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 877 00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,000 Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler