1 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: All right, here we go. Every pitch is your pitch. 2 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 2: The greatest show on dirt. 3 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: Tile field, way back the god. 4 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: What is that show? Now they can add college baseball 5 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: to their trophy case. Welcome to the Big Bets on 6 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 2: Campus podcast. I'm your host, Mike Calvary is joined by 7 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: Colin Wilson, the Action Networks college baseball expert. Colin, we 8 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: have made it to Omaha. The College World Series starts 9 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: on Friday with exactly zero teams that made it from 10 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 2: last year's field, so a complete refresh, including your Arkansas Razorbacks, 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: who are going off as the favorite, and then that 12 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 2: pesky Cinderella the Murray State Racers. Fire those guns in 13 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: the air. John Morant, you are thirty five to win 14 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 2: this tournaments. I really hope I see him behind home plate. 15 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 2: They are the worth four seed to make DOMA since 16 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: nineteen ninety nine, joined the ranks of Fresno State in 17 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 2: two thousand and eight, Stonybrook in twenty twelve, and most 18 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: recently Oral Roberts in twenty twenty three. But let me 19 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 2: get you started here, Colin, with a two parter. First, 20 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 2: where are your nerves at? Personally? You got your love 21 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: for your school you get your fat Futures tickets on Mahags, 22 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 2: and you got that element of potentially getting the College 23 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: World Series monkey off of your back. And then a 24 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 2: similar question as the second part of this. For Dave 25 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 2: Van Horn, this is his eighth trip to Omaha with 26 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: the Hogs, but he's only made to the finals once. 27 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 2: Where do you think his stress level is compared to yours? 28 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: My stress level is high, probably for a different reason 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 1: than da Van Horne. My stress level is high because 30 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 1: I want to hear Kate Anderson announced for LSU, not 31 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: Anthony Ironson. If you go back to that Bat and 32 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: New series, it was a tale of two different starting pitchers. 33 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: We'll talk about that later in the pod. I'm actually 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: going to be in attendance. My son and I going 35 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: to be up there for Father's Day weekend, a little 36 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: pit stop in Kansas City on the way back to 37 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 1: see the Oakland A's or whatever they're playing these days. 38 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: So I'm I'm at this point where I'm kind of 39 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: you forward because we made it back to Omaha. I'm 40 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 1: going to be with my son on Father's Day, something 41 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 1: we haven't done since twenty eighteen, and that also gives 42 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: me a lot of anxiety because the last time my 43 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: sons and I did Father's Day in Omaha was twenty 44 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: eighteen against Oregon State. So I feel as if the 45 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 1: way Dave van Horn does, and if you could check 46 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: on my Twitter timeline or check Arkansas Baseball's timeline, da 47 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 1: van Horn has been our coach for nearly thirty years. 48 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: He does not show emotion. He's mechanical. He's methodical. He 49 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: is very well spoken. I mean, you take the Musclemans 50 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: and the Beilamas and all these freaking coaches we've had 51 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: up at Fayetville, Dave van Horn is the standard. And 52 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: for him to break down at the podium and cry 53 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: to where he had to take his hat off and 54 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: cover it up shows you what kind of emotion it is. 55 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: Not because we made Omah. It's not crying because we 56 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: made Omaha. He's thinking about twenty eighteen. He's thinking about 57 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: that this is the best team I've ever had, and 58 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: I've got to win this this year. Trust me, has 59 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: nothing to do with actually making it. It's about winning it. 60 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: So our anxieties are high, and we're coming to Omaha 61 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: to play. 62 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 2: Let's take a moment to back up for those who 63 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 2: may not be familiar with the format. Yes, we have 64 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 2: eight teams, but they're broken into two brackets. So talk 65 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 2: me through what the rules are essentially of it, what 66 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 2: your odds are to win it. If you go ahead 67 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 2: and lose that first game. How does it all unfold 68 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 2: here in Omaha. 69 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, whenever I get asked this, I try to explain 70 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: this to somebody that's never watched the sport before. Because 71 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,959 Speaker 1: it's Regional's format, then it's Super Regionals format. Essentially, Bracket 72 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: one and bracket two is what you're gonna hear a lot. 73 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: This has been split up into four team pods and 74 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: it's double elimination tournament, so the four teams will play 75 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: each other. That will result in two winners and two losers, 76 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: and from that point on in the loser's bracket, if 77 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: you lose, you're out. Now in game two, if you're 78 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: in the winner's bracket, you lose, you go down to 79 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: play that winner. You lose, you're out. So two losses 80 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: and you're out. The key to this is getting those 81 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: first two wins and then getting yourself situated and your 82 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: third game to where you have to lose two in 83 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: a row. You can pretty much guarantee pretty much guarantee 84 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: that if you win those first two games in Omaha, 85 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: you're sitting pretty and you're going to be in the 86 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: College World Series Championship round. But let's talk about that 87 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: one stat before we get to that championship round. When 88 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 1: I say it's regional play, there's only one team since 89 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen that has actually lost in their first game, 90 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: got sent down to the loser's bracket and was able 91 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 1: to not just make the championship round, but win at all. 92 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: And that was LSU and that was Paul Skeens. So 93 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: if there is a team in this that can do that, 94 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: it is Arkansas and LSU, and one of those teams 95 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: will be in that exact same situation after Saturday night. 96 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: So that is how regional play works. Once the two 97 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: brackets are crowned, you go into a super regional format, 98 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: or easier said, you go into a best two of three. 99 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: Those games will happen on Saturday Sunday, I believe, twenty first, 100 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: twenty second, and then if they need Monday night twenty third, 101 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 1: they will compete for the national title. But it is 102 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: a simple best two out of three. So if you're 103 00:04:57,760 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: a team that struggles with bullpens, and there's a lot 104 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 1: of them in Bracket one and Bracket two. You need 105 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: to get out of this early part of bracket want 106 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: to Braget two without taxing your bullpen and getting into 107 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: getting your starters set up for games one and two 108 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: of the championship round. But it's that easy. It's a 109 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: two and Q losers bracket type thing through the first 110 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: couple of days. When bracket won, Bracket two go and 111 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: then it's a best two out of three in the 112 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: championship round. 113 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 2: So now we have a feel for Bracket one, Bracket two, 114 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 2: winners and losers brackets. Everything on the table here. I mean, 115 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: why are the top two teams playing right out of 116 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: the shoot? They're almost coming up to being co favorites, 117 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 2: yet the way that this works, they do not recede. 118 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 2: I know this is a topic that gets brought up 119 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 2: from time to time because sometimes you get these events 120 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 2: in which the top two challengers to potentially win it 121 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 2: have to play right away. Question for you, do you 122 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 2: think they should recede? And do you think there's an 123 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 2: elements that can be taken advantage of by gamblers, not 124 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 2: just once you get to Omaha, but zooming back all 125 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: the way to Regionals when the bracket came out, being 126 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 2: able to plot your paths championship. 127 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: Well, you and I talked about this before. I don't 128 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: think they seed them properly anyways, because they're so tied 129 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: to RPI in geographical location, like UCLA being a fifteen 130 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: technically a number one seed in hosting was kind of questionable, 131 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 1: and there were other teams that I thought were more deserving. 132 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: And then you get the anti SEC crowd that says, well, 133 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: why don't we just put all sixteen teams in let 134 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: them host? Yeah, Missouri, that'd be funny. But so I 135 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 1: think I think, really I like the format, And let 136 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: me tell you why. I love the format of not 137 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 1: receeding once the regionals are announced, which is what two 138 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: weeks ago, we knew exactly what pod you were in, 139 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: and we knew exactly what seed you were going to 140 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: fill into. We knew that Arkansas and LSU, if they 141 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: want out, were going to meet each other. We knew 142 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 1: that if Texas was to go in as the two seed, 143 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: they would have faced the seven seed. The one seed 144 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: would have faced the eight seed, like Oregon State would 145 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 1: have gone in and face Vanderbilt in this spot if 146 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: Vanderbilt didn't hold it up. So from a future's perspective, 147 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: as a gambler, you should thank God, thank the heavens, 148 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: the gambling gods that they actually don't reseed. You can 149 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: handicap this before regionals once they announced the field, then 150 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: you can find out who has the easiest path and 151 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 1: get a whale of a number, which somehow we never 152 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 1: did on teams like Murray State. I don't know who 153 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: expected that. But because of the format, as a gambling perspective, 154 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,679 Speaker 1: you're able to get way ahead of this. Also, you're 155 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: able to get ahead of this from a ticketing perspective. 156 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: OBLAH doesn't announce who's playing in game one, two, three, 157 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: and four, but it follows the bracket of who's in 158 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: Bracket one, Bracket two, Game one, two, three and four. 159 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: I was able to buy tickets for Arkansas LSU like 160 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: you know, on Saturday morning because I knew that that's 161 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: where they that's where they would play. And those tickets 162 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: that I bought are now were six times as much. 163 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: So please don't recede, don't reshuffle it. It helps the 164 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: gamblers and it helps you as a ticket procure So 165 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: I like the format. I hope we keep it before 166 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: we get into your best bets. Who you think is 167 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: going to win Bracket one? Bracket to you know your 168 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: picks for Game one, Let's just talk superlatives about this 169 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: entire field here, best lineup, best starting rotation, bullpen, most 170 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: likely to erase a big deficit, most likely to implode 171 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: late due to their bullpen. Let's start on the line 172 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: up side of things. It's really a two team argument. 173 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: I'm going to bring forward to the table here Arkansas 174 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 2: top slugging fifteenth and average, LSU twenty third and slugging 175 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 2: fourty eighth and average, Murray State thirty first and slugging 176 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: twenty sixth and average, albeit against a much easier schedule 177 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 2: across the entire season. And then Louisville also sneaking into 178 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: that top four conversation thirty fourth and slugging thirty third 179 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 2: in average. If you had to pick one of these 180 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 2: lineups not just based on their season long stats, but 181 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: how they're playing at this exact moment, who are you 182 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 2: going with for the best lineup in Omaha? 183 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: I'm sorry? Can you repeat that? You just did four 184 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: as a Bracket one? Sorry? Mitchal you have to cut 185 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:36,080 Speaker 1: this out. I was looking at stats. Did you say 186 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: bracket one? 187 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 2: No, this will be across the board all the teams 188 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 2: here in Oma. Who has the best lineup? 189 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: Okay, this is for pitching, right, this is for the 190 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: sticks the sticks. Sorry I was I immediately went started 191 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: looking at closers. Sorry, okay, yeah, I mean obviously Arkansas 192 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: and LSU are right up there at the top. Because 193 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: what I do is is I take your runs per 194 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: game average, but I also put in your calculated base runs. 195 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 1: And calculated base runs is in advanced statistics where you 196 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: have to look at how many singles, doubles, triples hit 197 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: by pitches. All of these factors go in to say, well, 198 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: how many runs should you have scored? There's a big 199 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: difference between hitting a home run every four batters and 200 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: hitting four singles every batter. So from a calculated base 201 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: runs and runs per game perspective, let's you and Argits 202 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: are actually second and third in this. The best lineup 203 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: in this, shockingly is Murray State at eight point ninety nine. 204 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: I mean they're just above Arkansas at eight point seven. 205 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: And now let's use down to and eight flats. So 206 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: Murray State by far from a calculated run base runs perspective, 207 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: is the best offense. 208 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 2: And what's interesting there, and this will basically lead up 209 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: into the next question about rotations, is that you have 210 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 2: your raw stats, but then you also have to factor 211 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 2: in the competition. Murray State obviously not playing in a 212 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 2: power league and being able to stack some of those 213 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 2: huge numbers throughout the season, and that brings us into 214 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 2: the rotation conversation, which I think we should start with 215 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 2: the fact that the second lowest staff at RA in 216 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 2: Division one Baseball this year was Coastal Carolina and they had, 217 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 2: by many accounts in elite defense behind them, a three 218 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 2: point two to one ERA across their entire staff, and 219 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 2: they've won twenty three straight games. But then you look 220 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 2: at you know who they played now, granted their road RPI, 221 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 2: their RPI in general, their overall strength of schedule, they 222 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 2: did challenge themselves outside of the Sun Belt, so it's 223 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 2: not a conversation in the same vein as Murray State. 224 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,959 Speaker 2: But then you also have LSU and Arkansas, who you 225 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 2: can argue not only do they have top ten staffs overall, 226 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 2: but they face a more rigorous schedule and when you 227 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 2: look at the very top of their rotations, they have 228 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 2: more to bring to the table than the Chanta Clears 229 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 2: with Iinsin and Anderson and Zach rut engage Wood, who 230 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 2: would you argue has the best rotation in Omaha. 231 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: The best rotation in Omaha is going to be between 232 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: LSU and Arkansas. But it is not very far off 233 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: to say Coastal Carolina. What they are doing with Jacob 234 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: Morrison in game two follows up what Cameron Fluki does. 235 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: Rile the Eikoff has been there forever as a Game 236 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: three starter as a staff. Their team x FIP is 237 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: five now, that is above LSU and Arkansas. Arkansas at 238 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,719 Speaker 1: four point four for an x FIP, LSU at four 239 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: point seven for an x FIP. But then after that 240 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: it gets pretty tight from a team x FIP perspective, 241 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: say with Arizona trailing that. But the two dumpster fire 242 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: staffs that you don't want to back are Louisville and 243 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: Murray State. 244 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: Here. 245 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: They're the ones when the starter goes out and let's 246 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: say the starter has a good game, those are the 247 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,439 Speaker 1: staffs that are going to ruin your under bets. Those 248 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: are the staffs that are going to ruin your run 249 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 1: line bets is Louisville and Murray State from that standpoint, 250 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: is not very good. And plus we got to throw 251 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: out some love for dominant Carbone. You know, the closer 252 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 1: for Coastal Carolina, he is cruising at a smooth two 253 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: point six era, one of the lowest x fips of 254 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: any of the closers out here at three point seven. 255 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: I mean that's even lower than Saint Christian Fouch or 256 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: Gabe Gackle for Arkansas. So you know, Coastal Carolina has 257 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: put up the numbers, but you do bring up a 258 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: good point about the kind of schedule that they played. 259 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 1: Maybe that's beefing up the numbers a little bit. But 260 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina's RPI is eighth, which is directly in between 261 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: 's see in Arkansas. So I think Coastal is a 262 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 1: team you got to watch out for from a pitching perspective. 263 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 2: Speaking of closers and stoppers, the twenty twenty five NCBWA 264 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 2: stopper that your finalist list was released, and there's only 265 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 2: two here in Oma LSU's case and Evans and Arizona 266 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 2: is Tony Plutza. In terms of just a bullpen that 267 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 2: you feel most confident in coming in, being able to 268 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 2: maintain a one or two run lead and not folding late. 269 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 2: Who do you like? Because for my money, it's LSU 270 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 2: because of their high end versatility, starting with Evans at 271 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 2: the end. 272 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Arkansas because I think there 273 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: are names on there that are just coming back. Parker 274 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: Coyle being the name that I think everybody needs to know, 275 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: didn't pitch, was dealing with injury. He is back, he 276 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: is full blown. 277 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: Gabe Gackle is the absolute blue. 278 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: Guy that could come in. He's the fireman of the 279 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: crew that can come in and put out any fire 280 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: at any inning, at any time, sort of a Kevin 281 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: coopsish type role. And so when you get past that, 282 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: Christian Fouch is the true closer because he has the 283 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: most saves. It is a very very deep bullpen and 284 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: full of guys that are going to be fighting for 285 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: starting spots on this Arkansas baseball team in twenty twenty six. 286 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I think we've seen guys come in that 287 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: haven't pitched in a month and absolutely shut people down 288 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: in the Supers against Tennessee. So from my money, from 289 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: top to bottom, the best bullpen it would be Arkansas. 290 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: I do agree with the LSU is very good and 291 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: the numbers prove that they are really close to each other. 292 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: But from a death perspective, Arkansas definitely has more proven 293 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: arms to throw. 294 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 2: All right, last two here, crooked number time, which team 295 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 2: do you have the most faith in a big comeback 296 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 2: to be able to race a deficit? 297 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: Here in o Mom Murray State. I mean, we already 298 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: talked about their calculated base runs being the highest of 299 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 1: any team here at eight point ninety nine. There's a 300 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: reason for that, and I think we'll talk about it 301 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: in our first breakdown. 302 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: Finally, shield your eyes time, which bullpen do you envision 303 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 2: costing their team a chance to compete for a championship? 304 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gonna be a Louisville. I mean we're staring 305 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 1: at a team FIP of six point four, a team 306 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: X FIP of six point one. Once you get past 307 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: their starters, it is live bet on the overtime, So 308 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: we'll talk about that too. 309 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 2: All right, time to get into your best bets, your 310 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 2: picks to win each bracket. I'm going to get this started. 311 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 2: I'm going to go with LSU and Coastal meeting in 312 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: the Championship Series and exact on this pays out at 313 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 2: plus five fifty six to one. Make sure to shop around. Also, 314 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 2: if you go with the exact outcome, LSU over Coastal 315 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: pays at plus nine fifty I just look at what 316 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 2: Coastal has been able to do from a defensive perspective, 317 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 2: from you know, their pitching depth. I have faith in 318 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 2: a team that's won twenty three straight games and has 319 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 2: looked the part. Basically, there was an expectation coming out 320 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 2: of the Sun Belt and maybe the competition would you know, 321 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 2: essentially cause them to fold in stressful moments. It's really 322 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 2: gone on in the opposite direction. I feel even more confident 323 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 2: in the Chanta clears. Who are your picks to win 324 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 2: Bracket one? 325 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: In bracket too, Yeah, I'm gonna take Coastal in Bracket one. 326 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: I think that you know, if you can pick the 327 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: teams that win the first two games, then you can 328 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: handicap those two teams. And that's really pretty much what 329 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: it is. So when I handicap Coastal against Arizona, it's 330 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: really the nature of Coastal's offense, which is lay down 331 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: bunts and get teams to throw the ball around the yard. 332 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: That really gets teams in trouble Arizona. However, they've been 333 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: hot because they've been slapping doubles and they're number one 334 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: of the nation and triples. But when you look at 335 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: their opening pitching matchup, Kramkowski is not going to be 336 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: able to match up against Cameron Fluchi. So to me, 337 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: that would put Coastal in directly in the path of 338 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: Oregon State in the second game. And if Oregon State 339 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: throws freshman fenom Dax Whitney in the first game, the 340 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: second game is going to be a little bit tough, 341 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: especially from a defensive perspective. So I do like Coastal 342 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: Carolina and then listen, I can't bag you on your 343 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: LSU pick because, to be completely honest with everybody that's 344 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: listening to this, I make this game a true minus 345 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: one to ten both ways. And you can break down 346 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: everything from pitching slight edge to Arkansas on the hitting. 347 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: But there are so many similarities between these two teams 348 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: and all of the advanced metrics. I really can I 349 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: think about it. When Katie Anderson and Zacharu win against 350 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: each other in baton Rouge on May ninth, it went 351 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: to extra innings. I mean Arkansas choked that game, but 352 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: it went to extra innings. That's what we're talking about here. 353 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: So the Arkansas LSU game that very first one. If 354 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: you see a plus number beside a team, which I've 355 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: already seen in the early market, you're not It should 356 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: be minus one ten both ways. It's priced perfectly that way. 357 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: I made the total ten and change. The total came 358 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: out ten and change. So I don't think you're bad 359 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: picking either one. And I will say this out loud. 360 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: I hope nobody from Razorbagnation hears me say this. LSU 361 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: is better equipped to play through the loser's bracket than 362 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: Arkansas is. Arkansas has some emotional pitching, some of them. 363 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: I think once a loss comes, how Arkansas deals with 364 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: that would be interesting. But I think LSU is more 365 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: equipped from a firepower and Anthony Ironson being a pitcher 366 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: and somebody who for some reason, Jay Johnson has said, 367 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: I'm going to start bringing you in during the SEC 368 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: tournament to just throw in the fourth, fifth, sixth inning 369 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: whenever I need you to play that fireman role. The 370 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: fact that you're going to tap Anthony iinsen and bring 371 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: him in at any point to stop some sort of 372 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: run going by the other team. To me, is a 373 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: huge difference between LSU and Arkansas. But the winner of 374 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: that first game I think wins the bracket. But LSU 375 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: is a team that is built to run through the 376 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: loser's bracket. So I'm gonna go Arkansas and Coastal. But 377 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: I don't blame you for taking LSU. 378 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about that first game. As you mentioned it, 379 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 2: probably if you were, you know, setting the number, it'd 380 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 2: be minus one ten in each direction between Anderson and Route. 381 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 2: Where are you going to end up putting your money, say, 382 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 2: if it goes off at a true coin flip or 383 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 2: you know, potentially get plus one hundred, plus one and 384 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 2: five on the hugs. 385 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I've kind of said this everywhere I've been, 386 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 1: but you know, I think all of us at this 387 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 1: point have an LSU seven to one somewhere. And I 388 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: don't think you're following me for college baseball without having 389 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 1: an Arkansas ticket in your pocket. If you don't, shame 390 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: on you, because we're finally going to cash one. There's 391 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: there's really a big difference here. I mean, Kada Anderson 392 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: and Zachary will go up against each other. Kada Anderson 393 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: when he faced Arkansas lineup. The first time he surrendered 394 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,120 Speaker 1: seven hits in a walk, he left nine. Arkansas left 395 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: nine runners on base. They missed a lot of opportunities. 396 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 1: A game they were leading four to one, it went 397 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: to extra innings and they ended up losing that game. 398 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 1: But Kate Anderson was knocked around. He was charged with 399 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: two earned runs. Then Aiden Jimenez came in kind of 400 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: blew the game for Arkansas. But I do Arkansas sticks 401 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 1: had so much success against Kate Anderson, you don't want 402 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: to see Anthony Iinson named as the game one starter 403 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 1: because I believe Anthony Iinson came in and when seven 404 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: innings had eleven k's. So you know, that's how I 405 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: see that first game being played out. I see a 406 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: complete coin flip between Kate Anderson and Zach Rut. And 407 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 1: zach Rut is interesting because you know with almost every 408 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball pitcher that you watch, they're buttoned up. 409 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 1: They throw a pitch. If they don't get a ball 410 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: or a strike, they go back to the rubber, they 411 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: get their signed, they throw it. Zach Rut is different. 412 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: If you want to know if Zach Rude is having 413 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: a good game or not, see if he's locating his 414 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: off speed see if he gets a call from the umpire, 415 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: whether it's a strike or not. If he does not 416 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: get the call that he wants, he starts circling the mound. 417 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: He starts throwing his hair, he starts twitching at his jersey. 418 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 1: He starts talking out loud like I love zach Rut 419 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: and I'm glad that we got him from East Carolina. 420 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 1: But from a live betting perspective, if zach Rude is 421 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: looking out of sorts out there on the mound, it 422 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: is not time to be a razorback fan. 423 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 2: Now. 424 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: If he's bending a curve twelve to six, that's when 425 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: you probably want to go against. You want to go 426 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: against LSU here, But with Zachary, you just don't know 427 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: what you're gonna get from game to game. And thankfully, 428 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: through the Regions and Supers, you've gotten Premium A plus 429 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: zach Route. 430 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,479 Speaker 2: All right, we got three other game ones here on 431 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 2: Friday and Saturday, Murray State against UCLA. You got Nick 432 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 2: shoot against Michael Barnett. You have the Bruins as a 433 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 2: slight favorite at minus one fifteen. How are you playing 434 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 2: that one with the Racers? 435 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: Ever, I've got Murray State plus two and a half. 436 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: I just I think that's way too much here UCLA. 437 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: There's some very interesting stats going on here with Murray State, 438 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:40,719 Speaker 1: and you would say, how in the hell is it. 439 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: Every time I go to make a sandwich and I 440 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: come back to the TV, Murray State has scored a 441 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 1: whole bunch of runs. The main driver behind this is 442 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,199 Speaker 1: the fact that their lineup ranks eleventh out of three 443 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: hundred and seven Division One teams. They're eleventh and strikeout 444 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,679 Speaker 1: to walk ratio. They don't strike out, they take a 445 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:56,719 Speaker 1: ton of walks, they get guys on base, and then 446 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: they hit. And I mean, this is an amazing off 447 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: offensive lineup that is being backed by one of the 448 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: worst bullpins that's coming to Omaha. So I don't think 449 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: Murray State can win it all, and I don't think 450 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: they can string together a bunch of runs, but can 451 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: they beat UCLA? 452 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 2: Well. 453 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: The main handicap in this is Michael Barnett, starting pitcher 454 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 1: for UCLA. If you go and look at his numbers, 455 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: eighteen walks issued in eighty one point eight innings. That 456 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: is insane, Like he doesn't walk anybody. And if Murray 457 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: State's main driver of getting guys on base is good 458 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 1: old moneyball, Kevin Eukalis taking walks. This is not going 459 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: to work for Murray State. But I, however, I do 460 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: like the plus two and a half because once you 461 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 1: get past Michael Barnett starting for UCLA, I think Murray 462 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,640 Speaker 1: State's going to start putting runs up on that UCA bullpen, 463 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: which is not good whatsoever when you put them up 464 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: against other bullpens. So if you could bet a first 465 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: five on UCLA, I would absolutely do it. I know 466 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: there are a couple books I've seen out there that 467 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 1: allow that. But I think once Michael Barnett gets out 468 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: of there that Murray State plus two and a half 469 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 1: is going to come into play. And if if La 470 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: Pinn isn't playing good enough, Murray State could win that 471 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,360 Speaker 1: game out right. But pitch selection is the most important 472 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 1: thing to Murray State hitters. If they have a picture, 473 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 1: if they're facing a picture anytime this weekend that that 474 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: cannot locate and is throwing a bunch of walks, Murray 475 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: State will completely take advantage. 476 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 2: Louisville is sending Forbes to the hill against Whitney from 477 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 2: Oregon State. Now the Bevers we're able to build the 478 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 2: Dam literally and figuratively. If you watch that, all the 479 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 2: Seltzers behind home plate. There were a team that we 480 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 2: talked about leading up to the tournament selection Monday. You know, 481 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 2: are they going to be able to get a super 482 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 2: regional seed and be able to play on their home diamond. 483 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 2: It made a big difference to them, but they're only 484 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 2: going off as a very short favorite here with their 485 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 2: phenom Whitney on the bump. Do you like Louisville as 486 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 2: an underdog in this spot? 487 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: No? I don't. By the way, come on Calbary's. It 488 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: was a whole row of Cours lights and the vendor 489 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 1: ran out of Kors lights. Then they got into the 490 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: topo Chico Seltzers, and then I think they were hanging 491 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: Heinekens off the third row. Build the Dam. Hashtag build 492 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: the Dam was one of the most amazing things. Listen, Corvallis, 493 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: I love you guys. Please don't make it to the finals. 494 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: You know, I think the number right now is a 495 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 1: little bit too high. I think Louisville would be a play. 496 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: The problem is I have some extreme issues with Sorry, 497 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 1: I just have some extreme issues with their pitching staff, 498 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: and there's other things that you need to know about 499 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: Patrick Forbes. So Patrick Forbes their starter. You know, he's 500 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: going to be backed by an offense that you know, 501 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: had twenty nine hits in the three games against Miami 502 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: and the Super Regionals, and then in his you know, 503 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,400 Speaker 1: two starts. You know, Patrick Forbes has been an insane 504 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 1: machine from a strikeout and walk ratio. And that's the 505 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: biggest problem with Patrick Forbes is he's either going to 506 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: punch you out or he's going to put you on base. 507 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: I think it's a really bad scenario to put that 508 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 1: to put runners on base with that Oregon State offense 509 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: in the way that it's working these days. Dax Whitney, though, 510 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 1: if the only knock that you can put on this 511 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 1: freshman feed on because he's only allowed six earned runs 512 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,239 Speaker 1: over his last twenty six point two innings. He is 513 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 1: a freshman. They took him out of the game two 514 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: role in the supers. They put him in the game 515 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: one role, and in the first two innings he was shaky, 516 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 1: and he was shaky because he's like eighteen years old 517 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: and he's pitching it as Super Regional, So of course 518 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 1: he was a little bit nervous. Do those same nerves 519 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: come into Dax Whitney through the first two innings against 520 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 1: Louisville here, and I think they probably will. So this 521 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: is a game where I like Oregon State to win. 522 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: I have it over the total right now. I just 523 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: saw a number come out there at ten. I make 524 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: this eleven point six. If we get shaky Dax Whitney 525 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 1: for the first two innings and by and if Patrick 526 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,680 Speaker 1: Forbes wants to start walking and putting guys on base, 527 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,120 Speaker 1: Oregon State will oblige and put them in across home plate. 528 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 1: So with a total out there at ten, I love it. 529 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: I make it eleven point six. 530 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 2: This may surprise folks, but Coastal is the biggest favorite. 531 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 2: In Game one, Fluky on the hill for the shots 532 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 2: minus one eighty against Kremkowski from Arizona. Is there any 533 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 2: paths of victory here for the Wildcats? If Fluky just pitches, 534 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 2: you know, really to his season numbers, because you do 535 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 2: bring up at the beginning Coastal has really great era numbers. 536 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 2: But when you look under the hood and look at 537 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 2: some of their expected stats, is that a little bit 538 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,679 Speaker 2: closer connected to the reality that they're gettable from you know, 539 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 2: their pitching staff perspective or do you think Arizona's drawn 540 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 2: dead here in game one? 541 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 1: I do think Cameron Flugi and Jacob Morrison are for 542 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 1: real now. I have yet to see them fase a 543 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 1: lineup like Arkansas or a lineup like LSU, especially in 544 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: the current forms of those two teams. So we'll see 545 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: when that comes around. But Cameron Flugi and Jacob Morrison 546 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: should have no issues here in bracket one. But there's 547 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: another element to this game that I just I know. 548 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: The number is high. I made it minus one eighty. 549 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: I saw this open minus two fifty. In some places. 550 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: I've seen it drop down to minus two thirty. I 551 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 1: think that's people just playing numbers and getting run lines 552 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 1: on Arizona, which I can't blame you for. But I 553 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 1: do want coastal in this game. I'm just willing to 554 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: let it fall closer to my projection of minus one eighty. 555 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: And the reason for that is is Cameron FLUCKI better 556 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: than Owen Kramkowski. Yeah? Absolutely, But there are things here 557 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: that you need to know, like can can't Kramkowski field 558 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: a bunt? And I'm telling you I must have spent 559 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: two hours in a wormhole like it was college football 560 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 1: season I'm looking up HAVOC numbers, but can Ramkowski come 561 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,959 Speaker 1: off of the mound and field a bunt, Because that's 562 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: what Coast's gonna do. They're gonna lay it down, they're 563 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 1: gonna get on base, and they're gonna have you make 564 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: a bunch of mistakes. Even though Arizona's overall fielding percentage 565 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 1: is pretty good, Kramkowski did have a game this season. 566 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: I actually went through box scores the entire year to 567 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 1: see when did team start laying bunts against Cramkowski. Well, 568 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 1: if you go and look at Utah on May ninth, 569 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: they laid three successful bunts down, all for sacrifices and 570 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: got guys moving. I couldn't find any tape on it, 571 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 1: but you better believe the Coastal Caroline is. Kevin Schnall 572 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: saw that film noses team lays down bunts and cram Kowski, 573 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: who just got rang up for eight roned runs against 574 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: North Carolina, is going to be coming off that mound fast. 575 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 1: He's gonna be a full sweat by the end of 576 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 1: the second inning. They're gonna have him run all over 577 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 1: the place catching those bunts. So I do want Coastal 578 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: in this game. I think the current number right now 579 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: is too high. I think number guys are playing that 580 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 1: Arizona run line. I think we have a chance to 581 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: get this to come down to two ten or two hundred. 582 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: I do like Coastal in this game. Overall, I've already 583 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: bought Coast plus one thirty to win Bracket one. 584 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 2: Underdog is one of the best plays to make picks 585 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 2: during playoff basketball, and when they score buckets, you could 586 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,879 Speaker 2: score cash. Underdog is one of the leading sports apps 587 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 2: and you can play right now in your state. Their 588 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 2: app has over one hundred thousand and five star reviews 589 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 2: and millions of players. 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That's promo code BBOC to be 606 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 2: eighteen plus, nineteen plus in Alabama and Nebraska, nineteen plus 607 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 2: in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus in Massachusetts 608 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 2: and Arizona, and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. 609 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 2: Term supply void in Colorado, concern with your play called 610 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 2: one eight hundred gambler or visit NCP gambling dot Org. 611 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 2: In Arizona, called one eight hundred Next step or text 612 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 2: next step to five three three four to two in 613 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 2: New York called the twenty four to seven Hope line 614 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 2: at one eight seven seven eight hope n why or 615 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 2: text hope and why? All right, Collen, I'm on the 616 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 2: record here, I got LSU over coastal at plus nine fifty. 617 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 2: Who do you think is going to get there? And 618 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:35,920 Speaker 2: who's gonna win it? 619 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 1: Here? In at Mons, Arkansas is going to take Bracket two. 620 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,719 Speaker 1: If Anthony Easin doesn't pitch game one, are we going 621 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 1: to take Arkansas at bracket too? I completely agree with you. 622 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 1: I like Coastal out of Bracket one. I like both 623 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: Arkansas and LSU from a fielding percentage wise, especially Arkansas, 624 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 1: who is top five in the nation. They have no 625 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 1: problem with bunts. The winner of Bracket two wins the 626 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 1: whole thing. I know the odds are short. I know 627 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 1: they're both less than three to one. Look for the 628 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: team that falls into the loser's bracket is my best 629 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: advice from a futures perspective. I'm going to take Arkansas 630 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,160 Speaker 1: to win the national championship, which I will cut off 631 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,479 Speaker 1: my arms and my legs and throw my entire salary 632 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,199 Speaker 1: at to be there for. So I'm going to take 633 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: Arkansas over Coastal. 634 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 2: Who do you got? 635 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: Lu? LSU Coastal? Who do you Who? Do you think? 636 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 1: We're gonna pod about this? By the way, let everybody 637 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: know we're gonna pod about this right after we know 638 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 1: we'll make sure you get a pot out. 639 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going LSU over Coastal. I've been, you know, 640 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,880 Speaker 2: riding LSU ever since I got him at nine to one. 641 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,440 Speaker 2: You know, we talked about them at eight to one, 642 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,680 Speaker 2: seven to one. The fact that you can get close 643 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 2: to ten to one on your money on this exacta 644 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 2: with the Tigers over the shots, I think that's the 645 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 2: best value. And really, you know, a championship or college 646 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 2: World Series, I should say that's a little bit devoid 647 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 2: of value at this point unless you want to take 648 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 2: a flyer on Murray State. But probably in your head 649 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 2: two hundred and one was out there at points. It's 650 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 2: hard to swallow thirty five to one. Seeing the teams 651 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 2: they have to beat to win a championship here, it's 652 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 2: a great story. Maybe bet them on a live number because, 653 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 2: as we brought up many times, they could fall down 654 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 2: by three or four runs and erase that in a 655 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 2: single inning. So there could be value on a game 656 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 2: by game basis. 657 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: You know what Murray State's bullpen is, right, It's a 658 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: big it's a big twelve secondary. It's just leaky and 659 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 1: it lets everything. It's just it's bad. It's bad. It's 660 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 1: bad for TV. So that's what if you want to 661 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: compare uson Murray State's. 662 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 2: Bullpen is a big twelve secondary for Colin Wilson, Mike Calbary. 663 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening to our coverage of 664 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 2: the College World series of special thanks to our sponsored 665 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 2: Underdog Fantasy. We're going to be back next week to 666 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 2: break down more on the college Diamonds. But if you're 667 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 2: looking for any more college content here in the offseason, 668 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 2: we have you covered here at BBOC, both on our 669 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 2: podcast feed and over on our YouTube channel. You're gonna 670 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 2: be able to hear a ton of offseason college football talk. Stuck, 671 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 2: He's back, Alex Coloj's in the mix. I did some 672 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: Win Total episodes with Josh Nunn, who is exhaustive in 673 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 2: his research for G five football, so you can go 674 00:29:58,400 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 2: back and listen to those as well. 675 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: Can I say something about that real quick? Hop on 676 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: in shame on you, Stuck if you're not mentioning Oklahoma 677 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: once you know John Matti's winning the Heisman. That's all 678 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 1: I got to say. Put that wherever you want. 679 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 2: Mitchell, the mateir in Jade nod backfield is going to 680 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 2: be pretty electric there, Norman. We'll see if they have 681 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 2: enough of their trenches to get it done. But these 682 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 2: are the kind of conversations you want to listen to 683 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 2: from your favorite characters here at BBOC Thank you so 684 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 2: much for listening. As always, please leave us a five 685 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 2: star review wherever you catch our pod. We appreciate it 686 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 2: helps spread the word. Thanks again and as always, best 687 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 2: of luck with all your bets. 688 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 689 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 690 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler