WEBVTT - 2024 Sony Open Odds: Predictions, Picks & Best Bets (Ep. 425) 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:05.279 Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:10.080 I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined once again by my esteemed colleague 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.760 mister Bau mcbrair. You can find me on Twitter at 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:19.440 fits underscore ff. You can find bo at bo underscore 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:24.439 mcbig time and we are going to preview the Sony Open, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.240 the second leg of the two leg Hawaiian Swing for 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:31.720 the PGA Tour. We're going to recap the Century from 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:35.559 last week, and we're going to give you some of 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:39.120 our favorite bets and our one and done picks for 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:42.720 this week. So well, Bo, we have won event in 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:45.600 twenty twenty four in the books, and the winner was 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.680 a guy we weren't really on last week. It was 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.760 Chris Kirk winning the century with a score of twenty 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:57.120 nine under, beating Saheith Thigala by a stroke. And it's 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.840 funny bout the midpoint of the century, it looked like 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.480 we were gonna get one of the big guns as 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:07.560 a winner. It was Scotti Scheffler leading after two rounds 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.920 with Colin Morikawa and Victor Hovlin two shots back. Sung 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:14.920 Jay m and Tyro Hatton I believe were just one 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:19.280 shot back, but Chris Kirk prevailed deservedly so, and now 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:23.160 he rolls into the Sony Open, the second event of 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:26.520 the Hawaii Swing, and he's got a pretty intriguing track 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:29.840 record at the Sony so could we possibly get a 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:33.160 Hawaii sweep. More on that in a minute, but first, 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:35.280 if you want a chance to win a free one 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:39.160 year premium Betting Pros subscription, you need to subscribe to 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:42.760 the Betting Pro's YouTube channel right now comment below on 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:46.240 this video and that is it. We will be announcing 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.400 a winner right here on the channel, so make sure 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:51.040 to turn on those notifications so that you can be 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:55.000 alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.320 All right, bo, let's talk about this event. The Sony 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:01.640 Open will once again be playing at Wilea Country Club 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.240 in Honolulu. It is a parse seventy course and it's 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:11.520 pretty short by tour standards, measuring seven four yards. In 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:15.040 many ways, it's like the polar opposite of the Plantation 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:19.799 course that they played the Sentry on. Capelua has huge 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:25.240 fairways and huge greens. Wile AA tight fairways, small greens. 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:28.360 So driving accuracy is going to be much more important 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:30.519 this week than it was last week at Capellua. Even 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:35.040 though the rough isn't all that penal here at Wilea, 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:37.480 approach shots are going to be a little more critical, 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.960 especially with the short irons, and of course good putting 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:44.600 is going to be rewarded. The forecast for this tournament, 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:48.280 calling for temperatures in the low to mid seventies, sounds 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:50.360 pretty good right now, since I'm gonna be shoveling six 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.600 inches of snow tomorrow here in the Chicago suburbs and 0:02:55.400 --> 0:03:00.239 a slight chance of rain on Thursday afternoon, be a 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.720 little breezy on Friday. Wins in the sixteen mile per 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:07.320 hour range, but for the most part, the weather should 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.359 be pretty agreeable. So, Bo, were you a fan of 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:14.040 Wilea Country Club in this event in general? Is there 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:16.840 anything that stands out to you about the course? Any 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:17.919 notes you want to share? 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:21.280 Yeah, So that course is kind of an opposite of 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:24.320 the Plantation course for Coppolua in that it's short, it 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.320 requires different skill sets. At the same time, it's still 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:31.120 an island resort course. You're still dealing with a similar field, 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.200 just an expanded one at that. So there's going to 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:38.520 be some overlapping performers here where Kappaalua. A lot of 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:42.520 times we overrate driving distance because of how long the 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.880 course is, and that came to fruition again last week 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:48.600 with Chris Kirk shooting a really low Sunday. He had 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.560 a great weekend, came through with the win because he 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:53.760 made the most putts, and that's what it kind of 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.560 came down to in at Wilie Country Club, which is 0:03:57.600 --> 0:04:01.040 a course that had a Nintendo sixty four game. It 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:03.640 was completely is the first. It was right along the 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:06.480 same time as the Tiger Woods PGA Tour game, and 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:08.440 I played a lot of both and it was fun 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:11.000 because it was the only one course loaded. There was 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:13.480 only one player you could use. But you got to 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:17.039 play Wilie Country Club in its current form too, just 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.599 with a par seventy two, very demanding off the tee. 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:24.240 As far as accuracy, there's going to be no bearing 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.760 on driving distance on this course whatsoever. A lot of 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.120 these guys are long enough to where they're actually going 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:32.799 to be dialing back and hitting long irons, driving irons 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.800 fairway metals off the tees just to find the fairway. 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:39.160 Because last year they what they found is that if 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:41.480 you increase the length of the rough by three quarters 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:42.880 of an inch from two and a quarter inches to 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.600 three inches. The scoring was down by I think five 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:50.600 strokes from the year's previous average. So we're talking about 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:53.360 a course that does have some teeth. It has a 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.520 little bit more exposure to trade winds than Kapolua does, 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:59.520 So this is not going to be your scoring birdie 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:01.839 fest like we saw last week when the weather was 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:05.000 calm and tranquil and the course was right for the pickings. 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:08.600 I do think with an expanded field, this course is 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.720 going to have a long shot winner, and we have 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.599 some really nice odds that will expose the books to 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:20.680 bets by people who know who does well here. There's 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.159 a lot of correlation between guys that have played well 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:27.120 in Hawaii in general and also have come here and 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:30.560 have played this course before, and if you're of a 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:33.440 certain skill set and in this course seems to fit 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:36.040 your eye, there's a lot of guys in the history 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.080 of this tournament that have come back and played well 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:42.360 year over year, and that includes our defending champion of 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:44.599 the event, which we'll cover in a little bit. 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.960 Yeah, this is one of those events where it's horses 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:52.279 for courses like you do see some guys repeating, Guys 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.159 with strong track records tend to do well here again 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.440 and again. One thing I meant forgot to mention about 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.760 the course, Bowen, This is to your point about the 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:06.560 reduced emphasis on distance. We got some trees on the 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:10.479 along the fairways here and some dog legs, So on 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:14.240 the dog leg part fours, the placement of your t 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.479 shots is critical. And like you can get in some 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:19.080 trouble into the trees here. 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:22.920 That and they dry out the greens and the fairways. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:26.000 So where we saw a lot of spongy approach landing 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:30.160 areas and driving areas at Kapolua, this place is dried 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:32.559 out and it's fast. Fairways are fast, and the greens 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:35.200 are fast. And that's going to put a more emphasis 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:37.240 on the short game. It's going to put more emphasis 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.440 on target golf like this. This course actually comps a 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:43.320 lot to TPC sawgrats in a way where you have 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.480 to plan your way around the course, a lot more 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:48.200 cappelu as a bomb and gouge type course. This course 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.560 won't allow for that. So some of those guys that 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.279 did well last week just because they were muscling the course, 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:55.680 that that's not going to work. Here and they're going 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:56.240 to struggle. 0:06:56.440 --> 0:07:00.560 Yeah, and we've seen although I think you can, we've 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:03.360 seen a range of winners here. We've seen guys who 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:06.520 hit it long win, but we've also seen the likes 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.479 of Zach Johnson win here before, like you can be 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:14.280 a short hitter, a bunter and win here. And yeah. 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:18.040 So this, unlike the Century, is a full field event, 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:21.200 and some of the big guns who played at the Century. 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:23.480 He decided not to stick around for leg two of 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.480 the Hawaii Swings, So no Scottie Scheffler, no Victor Hovlin, 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:30.679 no Patrick Cantley, no Colin Morikawa. But a few of 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:34.160 the bigger names stuck around, so we'll get to them 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:37.480 in a minute. The defending champion here is Seawu Kim. 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:40.920 He beat Hayden Buckley by a shot last year, and 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:44.560 if I recall correctly, Seawu chipped in on the par 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:48.160 three seventeenth for a birdie and the final day and 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:51.160 then hit a really good fairway would out of a bunker, 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.800 something I've never learned how to do on eighteen to 0:07:55.880 --> 0:08:00.640 help seal the deal and finishing third last year just 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:04.120 three shots back was one mister Chris Kirk, who now 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:07.680 comes in hot as the defending champ. So let's look 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:12.840 at the odds bow our favorites this week. Ludwig Obert, 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:13.840 how do you say it, bo. 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.280 It's Albert Yeah, o ar. We always said Aberg until 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:20.520 we actually heard him say his own name, and it 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:23.320 was Oberg. So that little tiny little loop above the 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.360 A in the name, which I actually learned to type 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:30.440 as I'm writing up these reports. A fantastic young golfer, 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:34.280 collegiate champion, one of the best amateur golfers the last 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:38.040 quarter century. He's the class of this field as far 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:39.160 as the odds are concerned. 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:42.440 Yeah, everyone should know his name soon because he is 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:44.480 a world class young player and he's going to be 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:46.400 making a lot of noise in the years to come. 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:51.720 He is at plus fourteen hundred. I know everyone loves 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:53.920 the young Swede, but he is coming off a tie 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.600 for forty seventh at the century, so he was not 0:08:56.720 --> 0:09:00.280 exactly on top of his game at Kapalua out of 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:02.880 seventy seven there on Saturday. 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:05.439 I was a full faate on him too, So I'm 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:08.080 happy to say that if you listen to me, you 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:10.600 were you were saying, hey, Ludwig, not only wasn't a 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.040 good fit for that course, but he was much too 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:14.800 short to bet last week. 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:18.400 Yeah, he wasn't really short odds again, a little surprising 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:22.680 that he's only plus fourteen hundred. Tyrol Hatton plus sixteen 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:27.560 hundred better finish at the Century than mister o'berg he finished. 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:33.520 Hatton did fourteenth at the Century. Matthew Fitzpatrick also played 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:37.880 well at the Century plus eighteen hundred, and interestingly, the 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:40.720 three players with the shortest odds here, Oberg, Hatton and 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:44.319 Fitzpatrick all making their debuts at the Sony. None of 0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:47.520 them have ever played this event before. Then we've got 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:52.520 Brian Harmon and past winner Russell Henley at plus two thousand, 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.920 Corey Conners, the Canadian ball striker extraordinary at plus twenty 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:01.040 five hundred, and Eric Cole is plus twenty eight hundred 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:05.760 on DraftKings anyone, you're partial two among the favorites ball 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:06.840 So right there. 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.360 You mentioned that those top three shortest odds getters are 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:14.400 first timers at Sony Open. Well, that doesn't play well 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:17.000 here at all. This course is very unique on the 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.640 PGA tour. You mentioned it's very short by tour standards. 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.760 It's one of the shortest courses on the RODA. This 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:24.600 is going to be a really tough ask for them 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.680 to come up with the performance that meets those odds. 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:29.560 Even if you're just making a top five or top 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:32.520 ten bet with those three shortest guys, I wouldn't do it. 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.360 I'm starting with Russell Henley and Brian Harmon. Those two 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:39.360 guys are extremely accurate off the tee, which is going 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:41.920 to be paramount here. On top of that, this is 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:45.080 a second shot golf course that requires approach distances with 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.760 the short and mid irons. They're some of the best 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:51.760 ball strikers from those distances on tour overall, regardless of 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.160 how strong the field is. And on top of that, 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.400 par four scoring and par four birdie making is going 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.560 to be paramount this week, and those guys all pop 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:03.880 up in those stat models as the best plays. Russell Henley, 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:07.640 Brian Harmon or where I start. Corey Connors checks the 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.600 boxes from tee to green, but his short game is atrocious. 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.400 And short game not just putting, but chipping is going 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.360 to be very important here too, because the greens are 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:18.679 very small and the greens are very fast, so it's 0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:21.000 going to be really hard for a lot of these 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.240 guys to not just get close to the hole, but 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:25.960 to hit these greens Compared to last week. It's a 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:30.439 total juxtaposition of skill set and so Corey Connor's short 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:32.840 game demands are going to be tough on him. Eric 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:34.880 Cole is one of my favorite golfers to root four, 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.920 last year's Rookie of the Year. He's got the chops 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.120 to be there. I want to see his odds slip 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.280 a little bit farther back, maybe into that thirty to 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:45.600 thirty five range. If that happens, I'll be all over him. Yeah. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.400 I thought we might get a better price on coal 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.800 than this. The odds are a little shorter than I 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:54.280 was hoping for, so I can't quite embrace him. I 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.600 don't know, boy, I kind of like Fitzpatrick a little 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.600 bit at plus eighteen hundred, just because I know what 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:04.920 you're saying about course familiarity being key, but it feels 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:08.280 to me, and I don't know what the statistical correlation 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.400 is between this event and the RBC heritage, but in 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:14.400 some ways this course reminds me a little bit of 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:19.920 that course where we saw Fitzpatrick winn last year and 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:24.240 has played historically well. He's a world class player, number 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:27.480 eight in the world ranking. It was playing at such 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.120 a high level in the FedEx Cup playoffs with a 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.440 couple of top tens there to close out twenty twenty three, 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.960 and opened in good form at Kapalua. So I'm kind 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.240 of intrigued by him, wondering if he might be a 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:46.280 guy who can sort of defy the historical bias against 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.720 first timers in this event. And the other guy like 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:53.599 Bo you mentioned Corey Connors, And yes, his putting is 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.280 not always there and not a very good chipper good 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:01.000 around the greens, but he is such a great ball striker, 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.520 and like, if he can just keep hitting those greens, 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.360 I think he's got a chance. And I think the 0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:10.840 small greens sort of favor guy who's as good with 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:15.040 his irons as Corey Connors is. And by the way, 0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.960 in his last four appearances at the Sony he has 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:22.280 finished third, twelfth, eleventh, and twelfth. So this course is 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.160 clearly a good fit for him. Just a matter of 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:29.000 whether he can have a good week with the flatstick, right. 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:32.840 Yeah, and he's extremely streaky, as we've known if you've 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.520 been betting golf for any number of years, Corey Connors 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:38.880 will both bless you and burn you. In any given season, 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.240 You'll go through the trials and tribulations of golf betting 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.440 just by being a Corey Connors guy. I've gone through 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:48.920 six month stretches where I refuse to bet him for 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.040 any odds because he burned me so bad. Like we're 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.760 talking a guy who should win some of these tournaments 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:58.439 that line up with his eye more often than he does, 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:02.560 and when he does win, it's usually on a course 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:06.720 that's more wide open. Despite how good he is Tita Green, 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:11.160 he doesn't necessarily do well on places with fast tracks. 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.080 He's more of your target golf type of guy. But 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.200 I do like his course history here. Do I think 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.320 he's the caliber of golfer that's going to take that 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.720 next step and defeat that top ten streak that he's 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:26.720 got to turn it into a win. I don't know 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.800 that he's that good, especially for odds less than twenty 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.200 to one. I don't know if he's that type of golfer, 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:35.320 and so I'm more at odds with his odds than 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.520 I am with the person and the golfer himself, because 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:39.760 he's wonted me money before he's lost me money before. 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.200 I just don't know that his week to say, hey, 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.400 I'm Corey Connors in twenty twenty four is going to 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:47.520 be my year. I just don't believe in that. 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.560 Yeah, twenty five to one for the record ball, but 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.280 admittedly yes, betting on a guy only to watch him 0:14:54.320 --> 0:15:00.600 repeatedly miss six footers can be very, very front frustrating. Friends, 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:04.760 download the Betting Pros app for iOS and Android. Sink 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.200 your sports books in less than a minute to automatically 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.160 track your bets across all sports books in one spot. 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:14.720 After sinking, you will enjoy access to detailed bet analytics 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:18.360 by sports and by bet type, including game picks, props, 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:23.400 and parlays. You'll also get insights and personalized recommendations for props, 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:27.320 game picks, and more tailored to your interests. To enjoy 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.840 the benefits of sportsbooks SYNC, download the Betting Pros app 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:35.200 by visiting Bettingpros dot com, slash apps, or search Betting 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:38.160 Pros in the app store. All right, bo I am 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.760 fascinated by some of the guys in the plus three 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:44.560 thousand and two plus four thousand range. Let's start with 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:48.400 Chris Kirk plus three thousand, and he's coming off that 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:53.360 win at Capealua, and with his history at this tournament, 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.560 four top five finishes and thirteen career starts at the 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:02.400 Sony Opening a third place finish last year, in a 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.560 second place finish in twenty twenty one. The funny thing 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.240 is baul I was going to be interested in betting 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.160 Kirk this week anyway. So I was sort of dismayed 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:13.400 when he won the sentry and I figured it would 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:17.720 just like cause him to be listed as one of 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:18.840 the favorites in this event. 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:19.520 Not so. 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.800 At plus three thousand, it seems to me like there's 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:26.720 still some value here. Would you agree with that? 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.640 Yeah, there's value, and I don't expect it to last. 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:33.200 So if you're watching this on a Tuesday or Wednesday early, 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:36.880 just know that these odds are on a ski slope. 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.280 It's not going to stay at thirty to one very long. 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:42.960 As the sharp. As the sharp betting public gets more 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:46.000 involved in this field, we're going to see we're going 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.320 to see that number come down. Twenty to twenty five 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.120 would be my target area, twenty five or shorter. I'm 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:55.000 not interested anymore. But if he stays, if he stays 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.080 at twenty five to thirty, then where all systems go 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.640 because Chris Kirk loves it here, he loves playing in 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.640 Hawaii in general, and he has that all around skill 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:07.240 set that we're looking for. We're not saying he's great 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:09.960 at Kapalua and not great at Wili, even though they 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:15.640 are very different courses. He doesn't have many weaknesses. He's 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:18.560 not your master of none, jack of all trades. He's 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:22.320 just solid all around the board, and with a guy 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.160 like that, you can trust him, especially when the odds 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.480 don't line up with how much success he's had here 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.120 and how haught he is. Right at this moment, this 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.600 is a green flag all the way until if he 0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:35.400 goes shorter than twenty five, then I might be put 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.480 off by it. But I'm pleasantly surprised that we have 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.560 this betting window on Chris Kirk because he pops up 0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:43.480 in the top five of my model no matter how 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:44.159 I scratch it. 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:49.040 I was really expecting plus two thousand to open, and 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:50.960 to get him at this price just seems like it's 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:52.280 really nice value. 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.399 This is why we bet golf is to find find 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:58.520 advantages in the lines. Make your own lines before you 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.840 look at the professional ones. The casinos are going to 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.679 react to money coming in. That's what their job is 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:06.680 to do, is to balance it out where they make 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:09.160 their juice. Either way, they're just going to go based 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:11.399 on movement of money. There's gonna be a lot of 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.040 money flowing in on Chris Kirk as the week progresses. 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.000 So strike while the iron's hot. 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.000 Yeah, he doesn't have the big name that some of 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:21.040 the other favorites. You know, he's not as well known 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:25.280 as Matthew Fitzpatrick or Tyro Hatton, but like this just 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.879 seems like such a nice setup for him. Also a 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:32.080 plus three three thousand, Saheith Thigala, who was in the 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:36.639 Haunts down the Stretch at the Century, JT. Post In 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:41.639 plus three thousand, Bijunghun on plus three thousand, Seewu Kim 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:45.280 the defending champion plus three thousand, and then we've got 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:48.359 Cam Davis at plus thirty five hundred, Justin Rose at 0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:52.199 plus four thousand, Hideki Matsuyama at plus four thousand, and 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:56.560 Harris English, who's played this event pretty well historically plus 0:18:56.600 --> 0:19:00.840 four thousand. What about the players in this regna? Is 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:02.080 there anyone you're partial to? 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.480 I really like JT. Poston and see what Kim from 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:09.280 what I can see right this moment is at thirty 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.080 five to one, which is even better as the defending 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:16.200 champion of this event somebody who is also one of 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:19.639 the most accurate t ball players and gets streaky hot 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:23.520 and last year he got really hot. And this is 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.000 a guy who is just one of those guys that 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:31.080 can put together an incredible round in the clutch because 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.480 he's not scrambling to find fairways. And that's where I 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:37.840 kind of am off of Sahiti Gala because last week 0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.000 we kind of could tell that this is the kind 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:41.159 of course that it was going to be. He's a 0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:44.639 lot like Jordan Speeth. His short game's phenomenal, but he 0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:47.160 needs a course that has wide fairways for giving off 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:50.920 the tee because if he's if he's forced to find fairways, 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:54.399 he's not going to do well. That's why he's He's 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:58.000 off the board for me completely on this course. Poston's 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:01.480 had great success here been on short game wise, He's 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.080 a lot like Thegala, where he's a terrible putter and 0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:08.159 he's also kind of iffy off the tee. I wouldn't 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:10.880 bet on him, but seaw Kim having the prior success 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:15.240 defending his trophy here. I had him. I had him 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:19.960 and the runner up last year bets, so I didn't 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:22.360 care who won. It was like I win either way. 0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:25.200 I had top five bets and overall bets on both 0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:28.640 of those guys last year at this event. But I'm 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:32.080 off Thigala and ben On. I'm on jt posted in 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:35.000 seaw Kim and of course Chris Kirk if the line 0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:37.280 holds steady enough. Yeah. 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:40.560 Now let's talk about some of the players with odds 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:44.280 longer than plus four thousand. One guy who's kind of 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:47.600 interesting is Matt Kucher. I mean talk about a horse 0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:52.919 for a course. Yes, he's getting older and maybe not 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:55.840 as big a threat to win as he has been 0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:58.600 in the past, But in his last eight starts at 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:02.840 the Sony dating back to twenty fourteen, he has five 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:07.360 top eight finishes, including a win in twenty nineteen. 0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:10.080 It's a long way to go back, though. 0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:13.440 It is a long way to go back, admittedly, but yeah, 0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:16.440 the course history is good here. Another guy I kind 0:21:16.440 --> 0:21:19.480 of find myself drawn to ball for the ball striking 0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:24.359 is Alex Norn at plus six thousand. He's only played 0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:28.600 this event once, I believe, finishing thirty second in twenty twenty, 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.720 but just such a fantastic ball striker. I'm a little 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:37.200 intrigued by him at longer odds, Is there anyone you 0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:41.160 like among the longer or long shots? 0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:45.600 So the guy that popped up for me beside Harris 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:48.560 English of course to this great history here and then 0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:52.040 of course you said Nora, and Noorn statistically lines up here. 0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:55.640 I just don't trust him to win like he's He's 0:21:55.680 --> 0:21:57.639 one of those stat model guys that always pops up 0:21:57.680 --> 0:21:59.480 at courses like this, and then at the end of 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:01.440