WEBVTT - All Eyes on Iceland 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:08.799 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day forty seven 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:13.680 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:17.720 The closest thing we have to a giant laboratory for 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:23.400 studying coronavirus is Iceland. The tiny, isolated nation has some 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:27.400 of the perfect conditions for observing and tracking the spread 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:32.320 of COVID nineteen, including a public that trusts its government. 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:37.560 The research the government has done there is already informing 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:43.599 the rest of the world. But first, here's what happened today. 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:51.520 In the US, calculations about when and how to ease 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:55.320 up on social distancing measures have been left almost entirely 0:00:55.400 --> 0:01:02.360 to states. Some states have already taken steps to reopening today. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:07.360 Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, in a controversial move, allowed barbershops, 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:12.240 bowling alleys, and other high contact businesses to open up again. 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:16.920 But in New York State, the location hardest hit by 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:21.320 the virus, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a more cautious roadmap 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:26.680 towards restarting some economic activity. In a briefing over the weekend, 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:30.520 Cuomo talked about a phased in reopening that could start 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:34.400 as soon as May fifteen, it would begin with construction 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:39.360 and manufacturing companies. This comes as deaths in the state 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:42.600 dropped to their lowest level in almost a month. New 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:48.640 hospitalizations and intensive cases continue to fall. While the governor 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.320 said the worst was over, it is clear the state 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.559 has a long way to go before returning to normal. 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:59.160 On Monday, officials announced they would cancel the state's presidential primary, 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:04.000 sketch old for June. When the US Small Business Administration's 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:08.480 loan program reopened today after a fresh cashion fusion, almost 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:13.800 immediately it became impossible for lenders to use the government system. 0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:16.760 A flood of applications caused the system to crash as 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:20.079 early as four minutes after it opened up. Bloomberg News 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:24.040 reported the SBA hopes to help mom and pop shops 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.040 access a larger share of the new loan money than 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.760 in the first round of funding. They're doing this by 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:34.160 capping the amount of loan relief banks are allowed to process. 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:39.160 Advocates of small businesses were concerned the biggest banks could 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:42.680 dominate disbursement of the three hundred and twenty billion dollars 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:46.359 in loans and keep mom and pop shops from getting access. 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.440 There was an uproar when the program first launched. After 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:56.000 big national chains including Potbelly Corporation and the operator of 0:02:56.080 --> 0:03:00.160 Ruth's Chris Steakhouses, landed ten million dollars or more are 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:04.560 a piece in loans thanks to a loophole, Millions of 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:08.279 very small businesses, on the other hand, were left stranded 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:14.080 when the program ran out of money. Countries in Europe 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.600 are pushing ahead with steps to relax lockdowns that slowed 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:22.280 the spread of the coronavirus. That's despite concerns these moves 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:27.320 could backfire. Switzerland on Monday allowed an array of retailers 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:31.280 as well as tattoo studios to open their doors. The 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:35.040 Swiss flocked to gardening stores to catch up on spring planting. 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:39.560 France and Spain may outline more steps towards relaxing restrictions 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:52.800 on Tuesday, and now our main story. Iceland has become 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:55.400 one of the best places in the world to study 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:59.360 COVID nineteen. That's because the country is an island nation 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:03.280 with only one real port of entry and a small population. 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:08.200 It also introduced widespread testing as soon as the virus 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:13.320 arrived in March. Now Iceland has become a real world 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:17.120 coronavirus laboratory and its work over the last few months 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:22.839 is starting to produce results. Bloomberg reporter Kristen V. Brown 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.520 traveled to Reggy, vic Iceland, just as the global scale 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:30.360 of a pandemic was starting to become clear. She has 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.640 more on what the Nordic nation has since learned about 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:43.799 how the virus moves through a population. In early March, 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:47.200 I was in Recabec sitting in the office of Cowdie Stephenson, 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:52.520 the founder of this pioneering population genetics firm Decode. I 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:56.200 was there reporting a podcast about fertility, and Cowdy just 0:04:56.200 --> 0:05:00.400 couldn't stand topic. He was pretty distracted. His phone was 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.839 ringing NonStop. People kept knocking on the door. Let me 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:05.880 tell let me tell you what. I am a struggling 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:08.960 a little bit with this discussion because we are now 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:13.719 facing viral epidemic which is going to have historic impact, 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.520 and because it looks like this is going to be 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:20.680 the first time in history of mankind where an epidemic 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:26.480 like these spreads to entire species and I'm very very 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:31.240 sure pays attack and it looks like it's going to 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:36.240 have a very serious impact on the functions world of 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:40.160 our nations. This was about a week before the US 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:44.000 had declared a state of emergency big outbreaks of the virus. 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:47.279 We're still limited to a handful of countries, including China 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:51.200 and Italy, and Iceland only had three cases, all people 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:55.800 returning from a ski holiday. But Caldi was already mobilizing. 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.880 He wanted to test everyone in the country for COVID nineteen, 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:02.599 or at least anyone who had so much as the sniffles, 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:08.039 I have to talk to the certain general because he 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:12.200 has to clear she has to approve of of us 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:16.000 stepping in. Usually what is missing all over the world 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:19.000 is enough screening. So what we're gonna do is calling 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.159 everyone who as sign about respiratory infection, all of those 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:25.880 with flu and cold and whatever, and screening to figure 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.120 out how the values are spreading in society. Since there's 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:33.839 only one doorway into Iceland, we have an incredible opportunity 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:39.000 to figure out how the epidemic is spreading between people, 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.560 and that is what we need to know. A few 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.440 minutes later, the phone rang. It was Iceland's director of 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:54.360 Health Almamler alum with with Shelton Funn is everything okay, early, 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.840 gonna let you do that? They will, they will let 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:07.960 us do with this nothing else makes sense. I was 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:11.280 the rare witness to how fast things moved in Iceland. 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:15.160 In the course of a one hour interview, Cowery as 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.880 the Director of Health for permission to launch a massive 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:21.640 testing effort, and got it a month and a half later. 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:25.240 Iceland has one of the most robust testing programs in 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:28.760 the world. To date, it has tested more than forty 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:34.560 six thousand residents. That's nearly of its population. In contrast, 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.680 New York, which has a more aggressive testing effort than 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.520 any other U S state, has tested just over four 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:49.400 Turning Iceland into a laboratory has yielded real results. The 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:52.560 nation has more than seventeen hundred people who have tested 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:55.600 positive for the virus, which is a lot for a 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:59.400 small country, but authorities say they feel like it's now 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:03.240 under control. All that's because the number of new infections 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.880 each day has been steadily decreasing since the beginning of April. 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.320 Just a handful of other countries have seen such a 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:15.160 significant decline in cases. Recently. I caught up Cowry to 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:17.880 talk about how things were going. We have not taken 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:22.280 any of these darconic measures that all the nations have done. 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.920 Me enough close to our boats. We have kept our 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.280 elementary school and child care center openly, have kept the 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:31.760 stores open. We have put abandoned the gathering of more 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.560 than twenty people, and we have encouraged people to keep 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:39.400 a social distance of two ms, and encouraged people to 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.719 work as much from homeless, plus and and and the 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:50.600 consequence of these has been that we have the epidemic 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:54.760 under controls Iceland has also created an app that lets 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.280 people know if they've come into contact with someone who 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:01.240 has the virus. But the value of Sceland's efforts aren't 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:05.240 just in demonstrating how an aggressive testing program can really 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:08.600 slow the spread of the virus. It's also helped researchers 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:13.480 understand how the virus spreads. Iceland is basically the size 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:17.160 of a really robust scientific study, and Decode has taken 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:20.480 advantage of that. Cowari says that Decode has been able 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:22.719 to trace the origins of every single case of the 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:26.240 virus in the country, how the virus has changed, and 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.679 how it spreads from one person to another. So if 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:33.400 a Peter is diagnosed and he has been in contest 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:36.920 with Maddie and John, we can determine whether he was 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.040 infected by Maddie or John. By having the sequence of 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.079 the virus and all sea of them, it is really 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:47.320 gives you an effective way of confirming the vein mister 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:52.240 virus is moving in society. Iceland is also one of 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.680 the few countries that from the get go prioritized screening 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:59.360 not just sick people, but healthy ones too. This has 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:03.320 led to some really important insights into how the virus operates. 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:08.559 For example, screening people without any symptoms revealed the asymptomatic 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:13.160 people play a big part in spreading COVID. Nineteen researchers 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:17.439 also identified almost three hundred mutations that haven't yet been 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:21.240 seen anywhere else in the world. Viral mutations help scientists 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:24.520 understand things like how likely someone is to get reinfected, 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.440 why some people get so much sicker than others, and 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:31.520 how the virus spreads. Ragna Hilda da Daughter is a 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:35.319 freelance reporter for Bloomberg and Recivic. She says that part 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.560 of the reason Iceland's response has been so successful is 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:42.319 that almost everybody trusts the government. There's been a lot 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:46.000 of trust in the health authorities in Iceland how they're 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:49.840 tackling this. So I would say, you know, there are 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.080 We're a little bit used to ups and downs, and 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:55.520 even though this is a different kind of, you know, 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:58.360 of a crisis, we are also used to we had 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.720 the financial crisis ten years ago. We are used to 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:04.240 having volcanoes that you know, blow up on us. So 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.160 I think the nation is kind of taking this as 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:12.520 a as another task like that. In a way. Radmulder 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:17.040 herself got tested their decode Cowlies company show up. It 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.720 was very quick, almost like just walking through. They put 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.840 the swap up your nose and and you're done. And 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.360 I got the results within a few hours, so I 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.120 was very impressed. In fact, for contrast, in the US, 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:33.000 at the height of our testing crisis, it often took 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:42.000 weeks to return results. It usually still takes days now. 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:46.520 Iceland is tiny. It's much easier to test huge percentages 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.000 of the population when your country is smaller than a 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:53.240 city like Oakland where I live. Still, this kind of 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.560 information can help public health efforts better hone in on 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.679 how the virus might spread anywhere. The number of silent 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.960 carry years, for example, suggest widespread testing of those with 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:07.120 and without symptoms may be necessary to control the disease. 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:12.480 Decodes parent company, the pharmaceutical giant am Gin is working 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:16.400 on developing novel coronavirus treatments that use antibodies to attack 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:20.600 the virus. Decodes research will also inform that work, providing 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:25.400 genetic insights from patients who are previously infected. So much 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.640 about this virus is still a mystery, though decode has 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:32.040 its work cut out for it. Are you realize you 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:37.400 know I have been working on all kinds of diseases, 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:40.800 start trying to feature out the passive genesis of all 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:46.600 kinds of diseases for about years, all right, and all 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.280 of a sudden into my life force of disease where 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:53.840 all of the questions are announcers. So in the middle 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:59.240 of this fiding, that is a peace to me. Cowdery 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.720 says that Iceland's real strength is that it pulled all 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.600 of its resources to tackle this crisis. I can tell 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:10.280 you that everyone is pulling together. I can tell you 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.640 that that when we run out of swaps, I got 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.400 phone called from from the CEO of Gold knows how 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.719 many companies in Iceland asking me whether we could use 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:26.480 their connection in the world to find slabs for us. 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:30.959 Just yesterday, just yesterday, there was achievements of our large 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:34.800 number of respirators to Iceland because there were four keeen 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:40.120 companies in Iceland who used their connection to find respirators 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.600 that are so how to come by this day, the 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:46.439 whole community is turning its back together and it is beautiful. 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:52.400 We are an unruly national scandal lists who cannot find 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:56.040 ease when thinks you're going well, But when there is 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.719 a crisis, we are better than any other nations and 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.280 the world. There have been critics who think that Iceland 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.080 has not been aggressive enough, that like many places, they 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:10.120 should have shut down schools and stores and restaurants. But 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.240 in the midst of a global pandemic, Iceland has shown 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.079 that a tiny island nation in the middle of the 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:19.400 Atlantic can teach the rest of the world a lesson 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:28.880 or two. That was Bloomberg reporter Kristen V. Brown and 0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.040 that's our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.840 one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:41.280 com slash Coronavirus and of course, if you appreciate the show, 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.400 please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:48.680 Podcasts or Spotify. The best way to help more listeners 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:53.360 find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is hosted 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.560 by Me Laura Carlson. The show was produced by Me, 0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:02.040 Top Forehead, Jordan gas Pure and mag Miss Hendrickson. Today's 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:06.880 main story was reported by Kristin V. Brown. Original music 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:11.880 by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:17.120 Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.