1 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day forty seven 2 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: The closest thing we have to a giant laboratory for 4 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: studying coronavirus is Iceland. The tiny, isolated nation has some 5 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: of the perfect conditions for observing and tracking the spread 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen, including a public that trusts its government. 7 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: The research the government has done there is already informing 8 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:43,599 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. But first, here's what happened today. 9 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: In the US, calculations about when and how to ease 10 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: up on social distancing measures have been left almost entirely 11 00:00:55,400 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: to states. Some states have already taken steps to reopening today. 12 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, in a controversial move, allowed barbershops, 13 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: bowling alleys, and other high contact businesses to open up again. 14 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: But in New York State, the location hardest hit by 15 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: the virus, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a more cautious roadmap 16 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:26,680 Speaker 1: towards restarting some economic activity. In a briefing over the weekend, 17 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: Cuomo talked about a phased in reopening that could start 18 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: as soon as May fifteen, it would begin with construction 19 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: and manufacturing companies. This comes as deaths in the state 20 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: dropped to their lowest level in almost a month. New 21 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: hospitalizations and intensive cases continue to fall. While the governor 22 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: said the worst was over, it is clear the state 23 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:53,559 Speaker 1: has a long way to go before returning to normal. 24 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: On Monday, officials announced they would cancel the state's presidential primary, 25 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: sketch old for June. When the US Small Business Administration's 26 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: loan program reopened today after a fresh cashion fusion, almost 27 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: immediately it became impossible for lenders to use the government system. 28 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: A flood of applications caused the system to crash as 29 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: early as four minutes after it opened up. Bloomberg News 30 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: reported the SBA hopes to help mom and pop shops 31 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: access a larger share of the new loan money than 32 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: in the first round of funding. They're doing this by 33 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: capping the amount of loan relief banks are allowed to process. 34 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: Advocates of small businesses were concerned the biggest banks could 35 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 1: dominate disbursement of the three hundred and twenty billion dollars 36 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: in loans and keep mom and pop shops from getting access. 37 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: There was an uproar when the program first launched. After 38 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: big national chains including Potbelly Corporation and the operator of 39 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: Ruth's Chris Steakhouses, landed ten million dollars or more are 40 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: a piece in loans thanks to a loophole, Millions of 41 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,279 Speaker 1: very small businesses, on the other hand, were left stranded 42 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: when the program ran out of money. Countries in Europe 43 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: are pushing ahead with steps to relax lockdowns that slowed 44 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: the spread of the coronavirus. That's despite concerns these moves 45 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: could backfire. Switzerland on Monday allowed an array of retailers 46 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: as well as tattoo studios to open their doors. The 47 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: Swiss flocked to gardening stores to catch up on spring planting. 48 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: France and Spain may outline more steps towards relaxing restrictions 49 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: on Tuesday, and now our main story. Iceland has become 50 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: one of the best places in the world to study 51 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. That's because the country is an island nation 52 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: with only one real port of entry and a small population. 53 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: It also introduced widespread testing as soon as the virus 54 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: arrived in March. Now Iceland has become a real world 55 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: coronavirus laboratory and its work over the last few months 56 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 1: is starting to produce results. Bloomberg reporter Kristen V. Brown 57 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: traveled to Reggy, vic Iceland, just as the global scale 58 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: of a pandemic was starting to become clear. She has 59 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: more on what the Nordic nation has since learned about 60 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:43,799 Speaker 1: how the virus moves through a population. In early March, 61 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: I was in Recabec sitting in the office of Cowdie Stephenson, 62 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: the founder of this pioneering population genetics firm Decode. I 63 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: was there reporting a podcast about fertility, and Cowdy just 64 00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: couldn't stand topic. He was pretty distracted. His phone was 65 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: ringing NonStop. People kept knocking on the door. Let me 66 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: tell let me tell you what. I am a struggling 67 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: a little bit with this discussion because we are now 68 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: facing viral epidemic which is going to have historic impact, 69 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: and because it looks like this is going to be 70 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: the first time in history of mankind where an epidemic 71 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: like these spreads to entire species and I'm very very 72 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: sure pays attack and it looks like it's going to 73 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 1: have a very serious impact on the functions world of 74 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: our nations. This was about a week before the US 75 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: had declared a state of emergency big outbreaks of the virus. 76 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: We're still limited to a handful of countries, including China 77 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: and Italy, and Iceland only had three cases, all people 78 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: returning from a ski holiday. But Caldi was already mobilizing. 79 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: He wanted to test everyone in the country for COVID nineteen, 80 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: or at least anyone who had so much as the sniffles, 81 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: I have to talk to the certain general because he 82 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: has to clear she has to approve of of us 83 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: stepping in. Usually what is missing all over the world 84 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: is enough screening. So what we're gonna do is calling 85 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: everyone who as sign about respiratory infection, all of those 86 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: with flu and cold and whatever, and screening to figure 87 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: out how the values are spreading in society. Since there's 88 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: only one doorway into Iceland, we have an incredible opportunity 89 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: to figure out how the epidemic is spreading between people, 90 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: and that is what we need to know. A few 91 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: minutes later, the phone rang. It was Iceland's director of 92 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: Health Almamler alum with with Shelton Funn is everything okay, early, 93 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 1: gonna let you do that? They will, they will let 94 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: us do with this nothing else makes sense. I was 95 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: the rare witness to how fast things moved in Iceland. 96 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: In the course of a one hour interview, Cowery as 97 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: the Director of Health for permission to launch a massive 98 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: testing effort, and got it a month and a half later. 99 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: Iceland has one of the most robust testing programs in 100 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: the world. To date, it has tested more than forty 101 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: six thousand residents. That's nearly of its population. In contrast, 102 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: New York, which has a more aggressive testing effort than 103 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: any other U S state, has tested just over four 104 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: Turning Iceland into a laboratory has yielded real results. The 105 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: nation has more than seventeen hundred people who have tested 106 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: positive for the virus, which is a lot for a 107 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: small country, but authorities say they feel like it's now 108 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: under control. All that's because the number of new infections 109 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: each day has been steadily decreasing since the beginning of April. 110 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: Just a handful of other countries have seen such a 111 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: significant decline in cases. Recently. I caught up Cowry to 112 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: talk about how things were going. We have not taken 113 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: any of these darconic measures that all the nations have done. 114 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: Me enough close to our boats. We have kept our 115 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: elementary school and child care center openly, have kept the 116 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: stores open. We have put abandoned the gathering of more 117 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: than twenty people, and we have encouraged people to keep 118 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: a social distance of two ms, and encouraged people to 119 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:43,719 Speaker 1: work as much from homeless, plus and and and the 120 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 1: consequence of these has been that we have the epidemic 121 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: under controls Iceland has also created an app that lets 122 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: people know if they've come into contact with someone who 123 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: has the virus. But the value of Sceland's efforts aren't 124 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: just in demonstrating how an aggressive testing program can really 125 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 1: slow the spread of the virus. It's also helped researchers 126 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: understand how the virus spreads. Iceland is basically the size 127 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: of a really robust scientific study, and Decode has taken 128 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 1: advantage of that. Cowari says that Decode has been able 129 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,719 Speaker 1: to trace the origins of every single case of the 130 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: virus in the country, how the virus has changed, and 131 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 1: how it spreads from one person to another. So if 132 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: a Peter is diagnosed and he has been in contest 133 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: with Maddie and John, we can determine whether he was 134 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: infected by Maddie or John. By having the sequence of 135 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 1: the virus and all sea of them, it is really 136 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: gives you an effective way of confirming the vein mister 137 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: virus is moving in society. Iceland is also one of 138 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: the few countries that from the get go prioritized screening 139 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: not just sick people, but healthy ones too. This has 140 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: led to some really important insights into how the virus operates. 141 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:08,559 Speaker 1: For example, screening people without any symptoms revealed the asymptomatic 142 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: people play a big part in spreading COVID. Nineteen researchers 143 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: also identified almost three hundred mutations that haven't yet been 144 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: seen anywhere else in the world. Viral mutations help scientists 145 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: understand things like how likely someone is to get reinfected, 146 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: why some people get so much sicker than others, and 147 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: how the virus spreads. Ragna Hilda da Daughter is a 148 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 1: freelance reporter for Bloomberg and Recivic. She says that part 149 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: of the reason Iceland's response has been so successful is 150 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: that almost everybody trusts the government. There's been a lot 151 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: of trust in the health authorities in Iceland how they're 152 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 1: tackling this. So I would say, you know, there are 153 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: We're a little bit used to ups and downs, and 154 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: even though this is a different kind of, you know, 155 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: of a crisis, we are also used to we had 156 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: the financial crisis ten years ago. We are used to 157 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: having volcanoes that you know, blow up on us. So 158 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: I think the nation is kind of taking this as 159 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: a as another task like that. In a way. Radmulder 160 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: herself got tested their decode Cowlies company show up. It 161 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: was very quick, almost like just walking through. They put 162 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: the swap up your nose and and you're done. And 163 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: I got the results within a few hours, so I 164 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: was very impressed. In fact, for contrast, in the US, 165 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: at the height of our testing crisis, it often took 166 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: weeks to return results. It usually still takes days now. 167 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: Iceland is tiny. It's much easier to test huge percentages 168 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: of the population when your country is smaller than a 169 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: city like Oakland where I live. Still, this kind of 170 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 1: information can help public health efforts better hone in on 171 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 1: how the virus might spread anywhere. The number of silent 172 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: carry years, for example, suggest widespread testing of those with 173 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: and without symptoms may be necessary to control the disease. 174 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: Decodes parent company, the pharmaceutical giant am Gin is working 175 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: on developing novel coronavirus treatments that use antibodies to attack 176 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: the virus. Decodes research will also inform that work, providing 177 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: genetic insights from patients who are previously infected. So much 178 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: about this virus is still a mystery, though decode has 179 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: its work cut out for it. Are you realize you 180 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: know I have been working on all kinds of diseases, 181 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: start trying to feature out the passive genesis of all 182 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: kinds of diseases for about years, all right, and all 183 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: of a sudden into my life force of disease where 184 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: all of the questions are announcers. So in the middle 185 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: of this fiding, that is a peace to me. Cowdery 186 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: says that Iceland's real strength is that it pulled all 187 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: of its resources to tackle this crisis. I can tell 188 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 1: you that everyone is pulling together. I can tell you 189 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: that that when we run out of swaps, I got 190 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: phone called from from the CEO of Gold knows how 191 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,719 Speaker 1: many companies in Iceland asking me whether we could use 192 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: their connection in the world to find slabs for us. 193 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 1: Just yesterday, just yesterday, there was achievements of our large 194 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: number of respirators to Iceland because there were four keeen 195 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: companies in Iceland who used their connection to find respirators 196 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 1: that are so how to come by this day, the 197 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 1: whole community is turning its back together and it is beautiful. 198 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: We are an unruly national scandal lists who cannot find 199 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: ease when thinks you're going well, But when there is 200 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,719 Speaker 1: a crisis, we are better than any other nations and 201 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: the world. There have been critics who think that Iceland 202 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 1: has not been aggressive enough, that like many places, they 203 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: should have shut down schools and stores and restaurants. But 204 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: in the midst of a global pandemic, Iceland has shown 205 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 1: that a tiny island nation in the middle of the 206 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: Atlantic can teach the rest of the world a lesson 207 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: or two. That was Bloomberg reporter Kristen V. Brown and 208 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: that's our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from 209 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 210 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: com slash Coronavirus and of course, if you appreciate the show, 211 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 212 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. The best way to help more listeners 213 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is hosted 214 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: by Me Laura Carlson. The show was produced by Me, 215 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: Top Forehead, Jordan gas Pure and mag Miss Hendrickson. Today's 216 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: main story was reported by Kristin V. Brown. Original music 217 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. 218 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.