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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: It is FED Day, of course, and the question for

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Speaker 1: a lot of investors today, obviously is what does the

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Speaker 1: FED do here? Did they go twenty five, do they

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Speaker 1: go fifty? What kind of rationale does the FED give

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Speaker 1: for whatever decision they do make, and what does it

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Speaker 1: mean for this economy? Dennis Lockhart joins us. He's a

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Speaker 1: former Atlanta FED president, and he joins us via zoom. Dennis,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. How do you

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Speaker 1: think your Federal Reserve will kind of act later this afternoon?

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Speaker 1: What do you think we're going to hear from the Fed?

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Speaker 3: Well, my expectation is that they will opt for a

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Speaker 3: twenty five basis point to cut, but it could go

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Speaker 3: either way. I do think it's a close call, and

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Speaker 3: I could very much be wrong. I have to laugh.

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Speaker 3: Usually I have more time for people to forget, but

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Speaker 3: it's less than four hours until we'll find out, So

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Speaker 3: I could be proven wrong very very quickly. I think

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Speaker 3: a case can be made for either move, and if

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Speaker 3: the committee is sort of ambivalent, often the leadership of

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Speaker 3: the chair is asserted, and in this case, Chairman Powell

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Speaker 3: may state his preference and I think then the Committee

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Speaker 3: will go along with that.

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Speaker 4: Why do you think, Dennis, it is such a close call.

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Speaker 3: Because I think you can make a legitimate case and

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Speaker 3: neither case is panicky, or is emergency based or whatever

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Speaker 3: that twenty five basis points is appropriate or fifty with

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Speaker 3: a little bit of catch up in it and perhaps

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Speaker 3: a bit more of an insurance angle to it. So

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Speaker 3: I think you can make a serious case for either decision.

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Speaker 3: A fifty basis point move, of course, is not that

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Speaker 3: the normal increment that the Fed typically cuts or raises,

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Speaker 3: and it does have a little bit of a hint

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Speaker 3: of panic, and I don't see any basis for that.

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Speaker 3: That's why I'm opting for twenty five Dennis.

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Speaker 1: If we were to see a dissenting vote today, would

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Speaker 1: that be news? Would that mean anything to you? Should

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Speaker 1: the market read anything into that?

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Speaker 3: I don't think so. At first. I doubt that we

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Speaker 3: will see a descending vote. If we see a descending vote.

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Speaker 3: It might come from an inflation hawk who's still concerned

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Speaker 3: about the level of inflation and the distance to two percent.

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Speaker 3: The chair, I think, has welcomed adversity of opinion on

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Speaker 3: the committee. You've heard him say that in his press conferences.

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Speaker 3: I don't think one or two descents would mean that much.

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Speaker 3: Having said that, at a momentous event like today, where

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Speaker 3: they're pivoting policy in the first cut in what four years,

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Speaker 3: they would, I think like to present a unified face.

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Speaker 3: But it's not going to be a big deal if

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Speaker 3: someone disagrees.

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Speaker 4: So I was in Canada in Toronto yesterday and I

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Speaker 4: had the pleasure of interviewing Carolyn Rodgers. She's the Deputy

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Speaker 4: Governor of the Bank of Canada, and many times I

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Speaker 4: tried to get her to tell me whether or not

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Speaker 4: they were going to go another twenty five in October.

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Speaker 4: The conversation eventually came into the transmission EFFECTI of monetary policy,

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Speaker 4: and how it took a long time for the hikes

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Speaker 4: to be felt, and then how it's going to take

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Speaker 4: a long time for the cuts to be felt. How

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Speaker 4: do we know what that transmission mechanism is when you

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Speaker 4: have something like housing which seems to be a structural shift.

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Speaker 3: Well, we don't know with any precision exactly what that

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Speaker 3: mechanism is. It's estimated as short as a few months,

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Speaker 3: maybe six months to eighteen months. What is generally accepted,

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Speaker 3: of course, is the idea that monetary policy has its

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Speaker 3: effect with a lag, and I think there's plenty of

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Speaker 3: evidence if that's the case. Therefore, the decision that the

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Speaker 3: FED makes today is not going to immediately have an

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Speaker 3: enormous effect on the economy. It will take some time

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Speaker 3: and it will accumulate over the coming months.

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Speaker 1: Dennis, can you give us a sense of how this

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Speaker 1: FED may proceed over the coming meetings over the next

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Speaker 1: several quarters. Is this something in terms of the cadence

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Speaker 1: of the cuts that they make. Is it's something they

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Speaker 1: want to do in a chunky style? Do they do

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Speaker 1: twenty five basis points every meeting? How do you envision

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Speaker 1: that taking place?

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Speaker 3: What I would expect to be a methodical, deliberate approach

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Speaker 3: that doesn't bring a lot of surprises to the financial markets.

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Speaker 3: The communications challenge around chunkiness to use your order or

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Speaker 3: pauses and then a resumption and fifty versus twenty five.

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Speaker 3: That requires some very very skillful communication and in order

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Speaker 3: not to create unnecessary volatility. So I think once they've

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Speaker 3: started this, they'll stay with a base case of twenty

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Speaker 3: five basis points at each meeting until they feel it's

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Speaker 3: time to pause.

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Speaker 4: So based on that, the futures market is really out

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Speaker 4: priced for that. So we're still looking at over one

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Speaker 4: hundred basis point cut so far for this year if

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Speaker 4: you take a look at work. So if it's a

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Speaker 4: twenty five to twenty five kind of scenario, we still

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Speaker 4: to price out as much as like, I don't know,

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Speaker 4: thirty five forty basis points of cuts. How do you

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Speaker 4: think that J. Powell does that or is it the dots?

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Speaker 3: Well, he's not going to commit to much in the

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Speaker 3: way of a path of policy, other than perhaps saying

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Speaker 3: something general. Is it that the expectation of the committee

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Speaker 3: is that there will be further reductions in the policy rate,

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Speaker 3: and certainly beyond the end of the year. I think

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Speaker 3: you'd be very careful about committing to anything. But I

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Speaker 3: think in speeches and in FED speak in general, you'll

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Speaker 3: get some sense that, and of course in the Summary

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Speaker 3: of Economic Projections which will be published today, you'll get

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Speaker 3: some sense of what they're thinking, and I suspect what

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Speaker 3: you're going to see is that they're thinking of seventy

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Speaker 3: five basis points by year end, So the markets are

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Speaker 3: going to have to adjust that thinking, or the markets

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Speaker 3: often have their own point of view.

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Speaker 1: Do you think the timing of these FED cuts is

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Speaker 1: appropriate here at datish or do you think perhaps this

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Speaker 1: FED might have been at least a meeting maybe too

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Speaker 1: late in terms of starting this process.

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Speaker 3: Well, according to the minutes, there was a pretty serious

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Speaker 3: discussion of the first cut being in July. They decided

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Speaker 3: to defer that. One reason they did is because the

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Speaker 3: interval between the July meeting the September meeting is the

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Speaker 3: longest on the calendar, and they get quite a bit

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Speaker 3: more information in that eight week period than they get

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Speaker 3: in a six week period, for example. So I think

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Speaker 3: they decided to hold off for more information. So what

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Speaker 3: Jay Palse said at Jackson Hole that the time had come, Boy,

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Speaker 3: you really can't be very more definitive than that. He

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Speaker 3: had to be. He had to be very confident that

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Speaker 3: he could lead his committee to this decision today. And

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Speaker 3: that's probably because of how seriously they took the idea

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Speaker 3: in July of making a cut in July. So to

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Speaker 3: answer your question, maybe they're a meeting behind, But in

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Speaker 3: the greater scheme of things, I don't think there is

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Speaker 3: great danger associated with maybe being a little bit behind.

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Speaker 4: All Right, Dennis, thanks a lot. We truly appreciate it.

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Speaker 4: We appreciate all your insight on FED Day. Dennis Lockhart,

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Speaker 4: former Atlanta FED President.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 4: Joining us now. Also in the studio is Alo Lua Ganga,

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Speaker 4: a US chief investment officer over at Mercer. So, okay,

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Speaker 4: do you care about twenty five or fifty today? Or

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Speaker 4: how are you looking at this monumental decision at too?

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Speaker 5: She's laughing at me, you know, I'm laugh because there

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Speaker 5: are two things. Personally, it's monumental because it's the first

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Speaker 5: rate cut in years, so that's the big thing. But

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Speaker 5: is twenty five basis point going to move the need? Unlikely?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 5: Is just the direction that we're happy about we're finally moving.

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Speaker 1: All right, So you got your MBA from Stanford. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if you're aware, but yesterday Bloomberg business Week

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Speaker 1: magazine came out with the rankings of MBA programs for

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Speaker 1: the six year in a row. Stanford was number one,

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Speaker 1: who Woo Duke was twelve. I don't know what they're

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Speaker 1: doing down there, business Week, but I have to go

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Speaker 1: have a talk with those people. But all right, so

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Speaker 1: talk to us about the business at Mercier. What are

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Speaker 1: your institutional clients, what are they what's changing these days

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Speaker 1: or maybe in the last twelve to eighteen months back

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Speaker 1: where they're allocating capital these days?

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Speaker 5: So you know, we're talking about the rate cut. Is

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Speaker 5: it a big deal? It could be, and it could

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Speaker 5: be for defined benefit pension plans because those out there,

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Speaker 5: they are still those out there. I mean a lot

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Speaker 5: of them have benefited from the equity markets, right, so,

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Speaker 5: like that's been great, but in a lower rate environment,

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Speaker 5: the liabilities could become more valuable. So that's what we're watching, right,

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Speaker 5: is that are you appropriately hedged? But then they have

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Speaker 5: great equity portfolios. They have private equity portfolios that have

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Speaker 5: done well and they've moved into private markets across the board.

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Speaker 4: So what is that like rate threshold, right, because we're

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Speaker 4: not going back to zero. So if it goes to

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Speaker 4: like four, is that where allocations start to change or

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Speaker 4: is it three? Like? How do you look at that?

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Speaker 5: So I'll give an example of just the real estate

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Speaker 5: capital markets, right, So, like financing has almost ground to

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Speaker 5: a halt. It's really hard to finance things. Developers are

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Speaker 5: having a hard time. They had one year interest rate

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Speaker 5: type hedges and they're not moving. So an indication there

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Speaker 5: of when things start working is rates low enough to

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Speaker 5: get that to unfreeze the real estate capital markets. So

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Speaker 5: it's great for mortgages, it's great for lending, it's great

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Speaker 5: for borrowing, all of that stuff. So we start looking

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Speaker 5: at activity and some those other areas private credit.

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Speaker 1: Alex and I were just fascinated by the growth of

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Speaker 1: private credit. How does that impact your institutional investor clients?

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Speaker 1: Are they asking you to get more exposure to private credit?

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Speaker 1: How do you do so?

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Speaker 5: Private credit definitely has been one of the areas that's

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Speaker 5: benefited from the higher rate environment. It's floating rate, so

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Speaker 5: the debt covenants and the negotiations that happen there, mean

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Speaker 5: that even though it's not syndicated loan, it's not publicly traded,

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Speaker 5: there was more protections there, so lots of capital that

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Speaker 5: was flowing into just senior direct lending. So clearly, as

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Speaker 5: you're moving into a lower interest rate environment, could that

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Speaker 5: be impactful. Yes, But on the senior direct lending side,

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Speaker 5: there are other aspects of private credit that are attractive.

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Speaker 4: So what are their areas also in private credit? And

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Speaker 4: then also side note in terms of say commercial office,

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Speaker 4: commercial real estate. I know that's not private credit, but

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Speaker 4: like in terms of an asset class that's been really

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Speaker 4: messed up.

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Speaker 5: So I'll say, from a private credit standpoint, opportunistic credits.

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Speaker 5: So some of the more distressed opportunities we're senior direct

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Speaker 5: lending or you know, it's still relatively good. So the

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Speaker 5: opportunistic credit space is great. They have more equity like properties.

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Speaker 5: But to your point, if you go to something like

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Speaker 5: real estate, real estate valuations, especially core real estate has

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Speaker 5: been stabilizing outside of office and you know, offices is

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Speaker 5: a different category in and of itself, because if you

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Speaker 5: start looking at newer office buildings, older office buildings, what

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Speaker 5: kind of rehab is there The rental everything. So office

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Speaker 5: is still a little challenged, but for the most part,

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Speaker 5: core real estate valuations outside of office has been stabilizing.

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Speaker 1: I guess one of the challenges there for real estate

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Speaker 1: we've heard from other folks in the real estate business,

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Speaker 1: because Alex and I like to talk to as many

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Speaker 1: people in that commercial real estate business as we can,

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Speaker 1: is just the banks aren't quite as constructive on real

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Speaker 1: estate commercial real estate as maybe people would like, So

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Speaker 1: it's tough to find financing. Maybe you can get it

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Speaker 1: to the private credit market, but you can't just go

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Speaker 1: to your relationship bank and you know, necessarily get a

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Speaker 1: mortgage on a big piece of commercial.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, real estate is definitely the area that's taken one

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Speaker 5: of the the hardest hits with the rise in the

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Speaker 5: raid environment. To be frank again, it's painted almost with

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Speaker 5: a broad brush. It truly is office that's having the

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Speaker 5: toughest time. Valuations in other areas has been challenged as well,

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Speaker 5: but it does look like it's starting to stabilize.

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Speaker 4: What other trends are you seeing right now in terms

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Speaker 4: of interest, money flow, questions, worry spots.

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Speaker 5: So there's been a big focus with regards to infrastructure

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Speaker 5: and this started some time ago when we started seeing

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Speaker 5: the capital flows from the Inflation Reduction Act and finally

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Speaker 5: dollars going to work there. So that's a focus as

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Speaker 5: we're going into the election. It's also a focus to

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Speaker 5: see if some of those trends stay. So that's one

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Speaker 5: Private equity has always been an area of focus. However,

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Speaker 5: venture capital, that a lot of clients were very focused

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Speaker 5: on the new innovative types of areas, had slowed somewhat

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Speaker 5: because from a capital standpoint, that's the law, guest, time

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Speaker 5: to get your money back. So venture has been real

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Speaker 5: estate has taken ahead. Venture has taken a little bit

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Speaker 5: of a hit as well.

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Speaker 1: How about just the big tech trade, the Magnificent seven

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Speaker 1: trade that John Tucker's been in for the past two years.

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Speaker 1: She's just clipping coupons on the way to the bank.

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Speaker 1: Is that still a thing or do we have to

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Speaker 1: go look for other areas of opportunity in the marketplace.

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Speaker 5: It's the talk about the magnificent seven, it becomes six

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Speaker 5: or what have you. I keep saying it is really

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Speaker 5: because of the index construction, right, So like the weight

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Speaker 5: in the index is what makes it the big focus.

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Speaker 5: It lifts up everything. But if you remove them and

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Speaker 5: look at the rest of the index, like like we've

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Speaker 5: seen some decent returns. Of course, earnings growth coming out

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Speaker 5: of the earning season was good, but the focus on

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Speaker 5: the seven was because of the weight in the index.

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Speaker 5: So these types of rotations happened.

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Speaker 4: But the theme of it in terms of AI, which

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Speaker 4: also goes back to your infrastructure play too, how do

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Speaker 4: your clients then, not straight up in video or the

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Speaker 4: equity market, how can they invest in that trend?

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Speaker 5: I mean, right now, from a publicly traded standpoint, right,

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Speaker 5: there are only a few limited options. However, from a

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Speaker 5: private market standpoint, there are lots of capital that's going

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Speaker 5: into new and innovative companies. It still is venture. It's

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Speaker 5: a longer term type of trend. What we are seeing

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Speaker 5: is investigating from an AI perspective, there is efficiencies, right,

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Speaker 5: so from redundant type of task, but like what are

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Speaker 5: we really going to get from a benefit standpoint? There's

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Speaker 5: a lot of work going into and seeing how you

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Speaker 5: can integrate it into your day to day, but more

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Speaker 5: private equity and venture investments to get into AI, and

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Speaker 5: then there are only very few from a publicly traded

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Speaker 5: company standpoint, did.

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Speaker 4: We see Microsoft yesterday unveiling that AI infrastructure fund with yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean huge amount of money. So speaking of that

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Speaker 4: non public opportunity.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought the biggest tech trend was me upgrading

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Speaker 1: my iPhone.

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Speaker 4: Okay, can we just say so, I put my phone

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Speaker 4: down next to Paul. I've had my phone the entire

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Speaker 4: time known me, and because he ordered this new iPhone

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Speaker 4: sixteen pro, he looks at it and starts judging it

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Speaker 4: because he has a chip. So now we've become an

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Speaker 4: iPhone sixteen pros.

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Speaker 5: No, I'll say, my husband does the same thing. Really,

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Speaker 5: He's like he judges my phone and then I'll get

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Speaker 5: a new one and like a hint to change my exactly.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's a tech cycle that you can use.

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Speaker 1: Replacement cycle all right in a fixed income space, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I mean to your treasure's three point sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent, it's not the five percent I had a

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Speaker 1: few months ago, but it's still for like no risk,

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Speaker 1: that's a pretty good return. Do I do that or

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Speaker 1: do I take credit risk?

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Speaker 5: So to your point, it's not the five percent that

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Speaker 5: it was before. Right now, here's you know we're at

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Speaker 5: current levels, but we know the direction is lower right,

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Speaker 5: So it's how long are you going to be able

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Speaker 5: to sit on that? For as long as you can,

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Speaker 5: that's great. But for our investors that are more institutional

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Speaker 5: in nature longer term, they don't typically turn over their

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Speaker 5: portfolios as much. So if you're focusing on the long term,

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Speaker 5: you go to the spaces that have a little bit

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Speaker 5: more longevity and where you can get raded. So they

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Speaker 5: were shorter duration at first, you know, maybe a few

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Speaker 5: years ago, and that's moved. They're now investing in equities,

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Speaker 5: private credit to your point, and looking at areas where

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Speaker 5: valuations were depressed. So real estate is an area now

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Speaker 5: that we are looking closely at.

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Speaker 4: So when you mentioned the areas that have growth, a

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Speaker 4: lot of it does tie into fiscal policy and then

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Speaker 4: obviously that becomes like an election risk, et cetera. But

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Speaker 4: is this time different? Oh God, I hate that I

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Speaker 4: just said that. There's like so much fiscal coming out

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Speaker 4: of DC regardless of who wins in November, and no

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Speaker 4: matter who wins, the will be fiscal spend on stuff.

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Speaker 4: And this is in comparison to say Europe or even Canada, Like,

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Speaker 4: how do you look at that divergence?

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Speaker 5: So we spend a lot of time looking at the

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Speaker 5: policy or potential policy that's being discussed because the elections

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Speaker 5: are important, of course they're important, but the more important

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Speaker 5: thing is can you get anything through? So what's the

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Speaker 5: makeup of the House, what's the makeup of Senate that

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Speaker 5: will truly drive and determine what we can do on

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Speaker 5: to go ward basis. So we're watching some of those,

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Speaker 5: you know, more local type elections as well.

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Speaker 1: It's funny they'd be interviewing somebody from BNP Power Boss

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Speaker 1: Strategists there this morning and they had a great flow

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Speaker 1: chart in their piece of research. It's basically if then

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. So if the you know, if it's

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Speaker 1: you know, the economy is good, the economy's bed, if

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Speaker 1: it's the Democrat, if it's Republican, here all the possible outcomes,

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Speaker 1: and they kind of had to play it there and

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Speaker 1: it just kind of made it very clear so again

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Speaker 1: again that you can't really hedge politically, can you. So

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Speaker 1: it's just yeah, and so I guess the question becomes,

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Speaker 1: you know, can anything actually get done once whoever is

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Speaker 1: in the White House is in the White House.

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Speaker 5: That's the point. So whoever is in the White House

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Speaker 5: and then can they get anything done.

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Speaker 1: Right in the interim, we wait for the FED at

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Speaker 1: two o'clock.

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Speaker 4: And then after that, then what you're going to talk

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Speaker 4: about tomorrow morning?

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Speaker 1: What did what did that? It was twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. It's just economic data coming up.

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Speaker 5: But you can drag it out for the week.

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Speaker 1: There'll be some earnings. Ganga Chief US Interest investment Officer

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Speaker 1: for Mercer Joining is here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affo card Playing and

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Speaker 2: broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

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00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: We've got some news in the global airspace airline business

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Speaker 1: looks like Alaska Airlines, the Jerry Garcia Airline and Hawaiian

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Speaker 1: the merger looks like it's going to be cleared to close.

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Speaker 1: It's an apartment of camp, it's an innuit. Please, now,

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Speaker 1: I understand that George Ferguson, he knows all this stuff.

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Speaker 1: Senior Airspace and Airlines zanols for Bloomberg Intelligence. So George,

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Speaker 1: what's it meaning for Alaska and Hawaiian to get approval

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Speaker 1: here where where does this combined dentity go? How competitive

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Speaker 1: can it be? Is this a good deal?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: So I think it's.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 7: I think it's a good deal for the US consumer

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Speaker 7: because I think there was a risk that potentially Hawaiian

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Speaker 7: could have gone out of business, and so I think,

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Speaker 7: really what this whole thing adds up to is Hawaiian was,

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Speaker 7: you know, was a bit distressed. They've had some problems

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Speaker 7: in their core businesses, especially from you know, wildfires, Japanese travel,

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Speaker 7: things like that. It just hurt their their core business,

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Speaker 7: their their balance sheet was stressed. And so Alaska coming

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Speaker 7: in and taking them over, you know, shure as that

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Speaker 7: they continue to exist. The combinity had you know, has

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Speaker 7: a footprint that looks like or route network that looks

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Speaker 7: like West Coast US into Alaska, and then Alaska has

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Speaker 7: some long haul into Asia. So it makes Alaska's operations

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Speaker 7: a little more complex with some long haul wide body aircraft.

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Speaker 7: For most US consumers, it's not They're not going to

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Speaker 7: really be able to tell. But I think the US

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Speaker 7: Department of Transportation, Department of Justice figured out that, you know,

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Speaker 7: like the Spirit in the Spirit Jet Blue merger purchased

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Speaker 7: by Jet Blue, whatever you want to call it. You know,

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Speaker 7: I think letting that fail means it's Spirits in difficult straits.

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Speaker 7: Alaska would have been sorry, Hawaiian had been in a

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Speaker 7: similar place, and I think they've decided let's just let

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Speaker 7: this go.

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Speaker 4: Does this mean that the Spirit deal could get on

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Speaker 4: the lookthrough or that's definitely dead.

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Speaker 7: I think that's definitely dead from a Jet Blue perspective.

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Speaker 7: I'm not sure if Justice would think differently about it now,

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Speaker 7: but I think it's dead.

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Speaker 1: George, what's the current status of just demand for air

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Speaker 1: travel these days? What are the airlines saying these days?

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Speaker 7: I mean, you know, what we saw in two Q

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Speaker 7: was that budget travel definitely looked like it was taking

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Speaker 7: more of the of a demand. Although you know, it

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Speaker 7: looks like some of those travelers are fading a little bit.

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Speaker 7: And I say, although, because we saw a bunch of

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Speaker 7: capacity come to that marketplace, right, I think, really what

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Speaker 7: we're started to see in two Q this year was

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Speaker 7: a fading of this bounce back travel boom where you know,

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Speaker 7: people were paying anything it took to go on vacation.

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Speaker 7: And so I suspect we're going to continue to see

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Speaker 7: that as we get into three Q. We're actually working

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Speaker 7: through schedules right now for the US airlines as we

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Speaker 7: do kind of as we close the quarters down, and

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Speaker 7: you know, we're still seeing a decent amount of capacity

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Speaker 7: coming to the marketplace. So to say decent, you know,

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Speaker 7: we're looking at domestic the other day five six percent

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Speaker 7: growth in seak capacity and you really can't do that

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Speaker 7: in a market that you know, the US economies grow

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Speaker 7: in a couple percent and you don't have this bounce

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Speaker 7: back travel. So we still think three Q looks soft ish.

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Speaker 7: It's not as bad as two Q. Some of the

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Speaker 7: capacity growth isn't there. We're interestingly, we're seeing more capacity

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Speaker 7: growth come in from the big full service carriers than

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Speaker 7: we're seeing for the budget low cost and notable our

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Speaker 7: carriers like Southwestern, Jet Blue literally pulling back in capacity

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Speaker 7: city as they go into the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: Right, So you have the big guys are able to

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Speaker 4: compete a little more in capacity and then price, and

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Speaker 4: then the other guys can and that gets confusing. So

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Speaker 4: this is a dumb question. But if I take a

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Speaker 4: look at the big guys, like can you rank these

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Speaker 4: for me here? So you get the Delta American United,

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Speaker 4: They're gonna be the top three, right, what comes after that?

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Speaker 7: Now Southwest Southwest is the number four, okay, one of

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00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 7: the biggest carriers in the country. And then you go

437
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 7: into the Alaska's Jet Blues those folks, sorry, so.

438
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 4: Did Alaska and Hawaiian airlines like help them get a

439
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 4: big boost?

440
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 3: Like?

441
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 4: Are they in the top five? Now?

442
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 7: Well, Alaska is going to be four or five and

443
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 7: Jet Blue is going to be at four or five.

444
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 7: So well, Alaska Hawaiian combination probably jumps them a bit

445
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 7: above Jet Blue. I haven't looked at this recently. Jet

446
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 7: Blue is going to be number five if they got

447
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 7: spirit and those two are kind of neck and necks,

448
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 7: and I guess they're slightly ahead now Alaska.

449
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 1: All right, George, what we got in your phone? We

450
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: need our periodic update of Boeing. I know the most

451
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: recent news was bowing freezing hiring to preserve cash, and

452
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: you know, what's the update on the strike and kind

453
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 1: of where we are with Boeing.

454
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 7: So it goes on. Obviously, you know, folks are talking.

455
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 7: I understand that there's a supplier discussion going on today

456
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 7: out in the Pacific Northwest. I because Boeing starts to

457
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 7: brief suppliers. If it continues, I suspect that, you know,

458
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 7: Boeing's draw off suppliers, their off take of the components

459
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 7: they're building, is going to have to slow to continue

460
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 7: to preserve cash. I just don't see Hiring doing you know,

461
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 7: that much for the cash flow of Boeing, because again,

462
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 7: as it drags on, they have to start to really

463
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 7: worry about how much cash they're they're burning. They would

464
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 7: prefer not to go back to capital markets to show

465
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 7: up their balances. We think they're probably going to be

466
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 7: close to nine billion in balances as they end three

467
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 7: Q and that's going to be pretty tight because that's

468
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 7: roughly around what they say they need to run the company.

469
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 7: I'm sure everybody can tighten their belt, every company can

470
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 7: tighten their belt and get lower, but they need to

471
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,160
Speaker 7: be very very mindful of cash burn here.

472
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 4: Yeah. I was like, oh, that's treading the line there.

473
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 4: We was talking to the guy over at Moody's who

474
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: is putting the company a risk on downgrade. If they

475
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 4: get a downgrade from like fish S and P and

476
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 4: Moody's like, what would that mean? That would be huge,

477
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 4: a huge fallen angel.

478
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 7: Right, yeah, it's a big fallen angel. I mean, it's

479
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 7: the not the end of the world, right, Companies managed

480
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 7: through this.

481
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: No, No, I mean it means.

482
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 7: You're going to go to capital markets. If you go

483
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 7: to debt markets, it's just going to cost you more

484
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 7: to raise write your debt. And a company like Bowing

485
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 7: needs this good mix of debt and equity to make

486
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 7: the returns work for the equity, and so you kind

487
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 7: of hate to be paying higher interest rates. You're going

488
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 7: to see you know, some funds that are debt funds

489
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 7: can't hold less investment grade paper. They'll end up having

490
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 7: this discorged some of that Boeing paper. That means that

491
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 7: you'll see prices gap out in it. Again, it's not.

492
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 1: The end of the world.

493
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 7: You prefer be prefer to be raising money cheaper than

494
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 7: what they will be in the high yield markets. But

495
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 7: you know, customers, I don't think go away because of it.

496
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 7: Nobody can break their commitments for airplanes because of it.

497
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 7: Suppliers don't really have other places to go for aerospace business. Right,

498
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 7: they could go to Airbus, which is investment grade, and

499
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 7: Boeing has to continue to rebuild that balance sheet as

500
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 7: they get things like this strike past them.

501
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 4: All right, George, we appreciate you. Thank you very much.

502
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 4: George Ferguson Bloomberg Intelligence and your aerospace, defense and airlines

503
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 4: analysts are joining us. There.

504
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

505
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

506
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

507
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

508
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

509
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: John Kapples Joints. He's the CEO for Pivotal Path joint us.

510
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: Hearn Bloombergate Active Broker Studio. John Real quickly just tell

511
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 1: us what you guys are doing over a Pivotal Path

512
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: as released to the Hedge Fund Business.

513
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 8: Sure, thank you, Paul So. We are a hedge fund

514
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 8: research firm and we work with some of the world's

515
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 8: largest hedge fund investors and Dowmance pensions, sovereign wealth funds

516
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 8: to provide them with the most comprehensive set of data,

517
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 8: information and analysis so they can source hedge funds, evaluate them,

518
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 8: monitor them, and benchmark them.

519
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 1: Where is the money going to within the hedge fund

520
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: asset class, where's the money been going to most recently?

521
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 8: Sure so, hedge fund as an asset class is a

522
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 8: bit difficult because they trade all asset classes. So if

523
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 8: we were to focus on the equity strategies in particular,

524
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 8: just like the markets, they have made a significant amount

525
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 8: of their returns on the heels of magnificent seven and

526
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 8: a lot of big tech. Going into this FED rate cut,

527
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 8: they certainly are more bullish than they have been over

528
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 8: the last couple of years, and that means that a

529
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 8: larger than expected rate cut is probably going to benefit

530
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 8: them in general.

531
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 1: Ok So I mean the as an asset class, how

532
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: do you frame out for your clients how they should

533
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 1: use hedge funds, how wou should be part of a

534
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: diversified portfolio.

535
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 8: Sure so, again that's kind of the difficulty of calling

536
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 8: it an asset class. It can be, but in reality

537
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 8: it's a better way to well, it's trading strategies across

538
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 8: many assetsses. Right, So, when you look at long short equity,

539
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 8: many of our clients large pension funds, they consider it

540
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 8: an extension of their equity portfolio. When they look at

541
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 8: fixed income relative value or long short credit, it's off

542
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 8: an extension of their fixed income portfolio. For other diversifying

543
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 8: strategies like global macro and managed futures and multistrats, it's

544
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 8: going to have a different type of role in the

545
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 8: portfolio to maybe minimize downsides, provide uncorrelated sources of returns,

546
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 8: and hopefully alpha.

547
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: Is one of the things I've noticed being on wall

548
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: streets since the mid eighties is just a the growth

549
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: of hedge funds, but b the seems like the consolidation

550
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: that if you're a big like Millennium or City or

551
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: zero point seventy two, you can get money, tons of money.

552
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: It flows there. But if you're like the hot shot

553
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 1: trader Morgan Sanley has had three or four years and

554
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: once a go ahead raise a billion dollars, that doesn't

555
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: seem to be as available today as maybe it was

556
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: twenty years ago. Are we seeing too much concentration, do

557
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: you think in a hedge fund business?

558
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 8: So, I think it's a great question, and I think

559
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 8: the answer was yes. Up until about a year and

560
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 8: a half ago, we saw the new launches for hedge

561
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 8: funds significantly down. We saw new capital for emerging managers

562
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 8: significantly down. That has all actually changed. We're seeing a

563
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 8: huge trend this year where we're tracking almost one hundred

564
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 8: and fifty new launches in twenty twenty four into the

565
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 8: second quarter of twenty five. But more importantly than that,

566
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 8: these new launches come from hedge funds that are above

567
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 8: a billion dollars in assets, So in terms of pedigree,

568
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 8: we're seeing significant amount of quality launches. But in addition

569
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 8: to that, a lot of the capital that they're receiving

570
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 8: is actually from the multi straps themselves. Yep.

571
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: And we actually have a Bloomberg exclusive story out on

572
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: the Bloomerg terminal today Millennium Citadel breed a fourteen billion

573
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: dollar pack of hedge fund cubs. So it was just

574
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: like Julian Robertson from Tiger seated all his cubs. Now

575
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: it's Ken Griffin and i Isy Englander from the leading.

576
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 4: All the cubs. Wait, so is that just because there's

577
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 4: just more money out there? Or like, why is that

578
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 4: so you basically have the big guys and investing in

579
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: the little guys and the whole thing, Like, why are

580
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 4: we seeing it like that? And what kind of strategies?

581
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean there's a number of reasons. I'd say

582
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 8: one of the primary reasons is that the institutional investors

583
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 8: themselves are starting to based on multistrap performance that actually

584
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 8: has been slightly down, not very much, but slightly down,

585
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 8: and also relative to a higher risk free rate, they've

586
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 8: been looking to create more transparency and doing that through

587
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 8: single strategies. It's a lot easier to understand along short

588
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 8: equity strategy focused on technology than a multistrat that may

589
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 8: have three hundred different pms in it. So part of

590
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 8: it's the investor base that's pushing that. The other part

591
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 8: of it is that the investors are also wanting reduced fees,

592
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 8: and running these large multistrats is extremely expensive. Part of

593
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 8: that's for signing bonuses, retention bonuses, and things like that.

594
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 8: That's part of the biggest amount of overhead that has

595
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 8: often passed through to the investors themselves. And so a

596
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 8: lot of these pms who have done extremely well inside

597
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 8: of these pod shops or multistrats are now seeing an

598
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 8: opportunity to spin out, maybe change their quality of life

599
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 8: a little bit, and the multistrats themselves are saying, you

600
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 8: know what, we should actually fund that and be a

601
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,239
Speaker 8: part of that, as opposed to losing that talent and

602
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 8: in fact they can do so and win in the

603
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 8: same time because they can invest in a separate account

604
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,479
Speaker 8: and they can still have control but also reduce their

605
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 8: overhead costs and the fees that a lot of their

606
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 8: investor clients are not happy with.

607
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: I don't know for me. One of the biggest piece

608
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: of news in the hedgewind business rulers just over the

609
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: last couple of days was Steve Cohen announcing that he

610
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: was gonna step away some active management of his funds.

611
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: That must have been a buzz within your industry. What

612
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: are people saying about that? Absolutely?

613
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 8: I mean, he's definitely one of the pioneers in the industry.

614
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 8: He's one of the most well respected investors for sure.

615
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 8: One of the issues in the hedge fund industry has

616
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 8: always been succession, Right can you get past the founder

617
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 8: and get to the next generation of talent and continue

618
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 8: to build a high quality institutional business. And that's something

619
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 8: that we still haven't seen that many examples of. So,

620
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 8: you know, he says he's going to obviously stay in

621
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 8: involved in the business, and that's public information, but we're

622
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 8: always looking to see can that next generation of talent

623
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 8: manage the business continue to grow assets and continue beyond

624
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 8: their founder.

625
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,239
Speaker 4: What kind of strategies right now are doing well? Like,

626
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 4: what are hedge funds broadly doing, how are they positioned?

627
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 4: Like what what are some of your big takeaways on that?

628
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean there are a number of hedge fund

629
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 8: strategies doing well this year, and VIDA well, the TMT

630
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 8: or technology, media and telecom managers absolutely, that's been a

631
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 8: big part, and companies in similar you know AI exposure.

632
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 8: But beyond that, we've also seen financials come back, you know,

633
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 8: as we've seen in the market with the market goes,

634
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 8: a lot of the hedge funds because they are often

635
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 8: long biased, especially in sector focused strategies. So financials is

636
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 8: leading the way. Healthcare is also a very strong performer

637
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 8: this year, and these are sector focus managers in biotech,

638
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 8: in pharmaceuticals, but especially biotech. And then outside of that,

639
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 8: the multistrats continue to do well. They're you know, up

640
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 8: about seven percent year to date. That's well ahead of

641
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 8: the risk free rate and it's all uncorrelated. Lastly, it's

642
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 8: the equity quant managers that had been kind of left

643
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 8: for dead after twenty twenty, where they had a five

644
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 8: year period of generating almost no returns. Over the last

645
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 8: three plus years, they've been annualizing over nine and a

646
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 8: half percent, again uncorrelated, purely in the form of alpha,

647
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 8: and so investors are turning back to systematic and quantitative

648
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 8: managers as well.

649
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: And just broadly defined money still going to hedge funds right,

650
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 1: still a net inflow.

651
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 8: Year after year, so this year not really, but it's

652
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 8: not for a lack of interest. It's actually much more

653
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 8: related to the lack of distributions.

654
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: In private equity.

655
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 8: All of the clients that we speak to are actually

656
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 8: more interested in hedge funds because they performed so well

657
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 8: since COVID and because of the greater liquidity that they offer.

658
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 8: And so we're seeing even from private credit, we're seeing

659
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 8: for the first time surveys are now telling and our

660
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 8: clients are saying the same thing that they're more interested

661
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 8: in the liquid side of credit than in private credit.

662
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 8: Same thing in private equity. They're starting the pendulum swinging

663
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 8: back towards public equities. The problem is a lot of

664
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 8: these investors lack of the liquidity to do so, so

665
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 8: assets are not really growing that much beyond organic returns.

666
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,479
Speaker 8: And in addition to that, even though I've talked about

667
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 8: all these new launches. The capital is oftentimes being recycled

668
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 8: from those multi stratchs themselves as opposed to new capital

669
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 8: flowing in. But the interest is there, all.

670
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 1: Right, John, Really interesting stuff. Really appreciate chatting with you.

671
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 1: I noticed that your firm, You and your firm were

672
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 1: represented in this Bloomberg are citing your research. John Kaplis's

673
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: CEO of Pivotal Path, give us an update on what's

674
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 1: happening in the world of hedge funds.

675
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

676
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

677
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

678
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

679
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

680
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 4: It's been dank because you haven't heard you yields a

681
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 4: little bit higher, stocks going a whole lot of nowhere.

682
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 4: Joining us now for his day is Jeffrey Cleveland, chief

683
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 4: economist over at paid An a Regal. All right, Jeffrey,

684
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 4: twenty five or fifty place your bets twenty five?

685
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 9: Why I don't see the urgency to cut by fifty?

686
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 9: I think you know stocks are at all time highs

687
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 9: layoffs are quite low. We had a decent retail sales

688
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 9: report yesterday. So usually if the FED goes faster, it's

689
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 9: because we're in an obvious financial crime or we're in

690
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 9: a recession. And I don't think you can make either

691
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 9: of those cases or of those arguments. So it seems

692
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 9: like twenty five would be the best path here. But

693
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 9: I don't want to protest too much. I mean, I

694
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 9: think we're gonna go middle of next year will be

695
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 9: you know, four percent on FED funds. End of next year,

696
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 9: end of twenty five will be at three and a

697
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 9: half percent. So they want to go faster. I want protest.

698
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 10: It's good for stocks, good for bonds.

699
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: I like it. Jeffrey, what do you think, aside from

700
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: the actual you know, move on the rates, what are

701
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: you gonna be looking for from the messaging, from the

702
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: body language and all that kind of parlor game that

703
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 1: folks play. What are you gonna be looking for in

704
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 1: this meeting?

705
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 10: Well, probably first the dots.

706
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 9: You know, as of June, we had one cut for

707
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 9: this year and then we had about four next year.

708
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 9: So look for the change in the median dot where

709
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 9: they see the policy rate this year and next year.

710
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 9: That's some that's possibly some disappointment for the market because

711
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 9: market already expects a lot of cutting out over the

712
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 9: next eight teen months. I don't even know where that's

713
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 9: whether that's going to be confirmed by the dots so

714
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 9: well exactly.

715
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,319
Speaker 4: So are we just looking at like a bond sell

716
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 4: off if they go twenty five and don't confirm almost

717
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,919
Speaker 4: you know, five cuts this year?

718
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 9: Yeah, potentially potentially because the bond market, It's like at

719
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 9: the beginning of the year, Alex, the bond market was

720
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 9: expecting seven rate cuts I think at some point in January.

721
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 9: So far we haven't had any rate cuts, so the

722
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,399
Speaker 9: bond market was wrong about that. So in this short run, yeah,

723
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 9: that could cause some volatility, you know, So that's an

724
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:33,959
Speaker 9: issue today.

725
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 10: I think also the messaging.

726
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 9: I think one, you know, if I was going to

727
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 9: build the case to cut more quickly, I would just say, hey,

728
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 9: the inflation threat is gone and the real threat now

729
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 9: is you know, economic downturn or late further labor market leakness.

730
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 9: And then I would say to everyone, hey, we don't

731
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 9: need to be at five thirty on the funds rate

732
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 9: if inflation is not a risk we need to get

733
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 9: back to neutral.

734
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 10: And we want to get there more quickly.

735
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 9: That would be the argument, would say, So how the

736
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 9: FED chair tells the story today and the press conference

737
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 9: will also be important to take in.

738
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: So, Jeffery, is it your belief at this point in

739
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: time that the economy is in fact in decent shape. Yes,

740
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 1: maybe slowing certain parts, but in decent shape.

741
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 5: Yeah.

742
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 9: Absolutely, I mean layoffs are low. I think GDP in

743
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 9: the current quarter is tracking two two and a half percent.

744
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 9: We think for the full year will be will be

745
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 9: almost two and a half percent on GDP.

746
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:26,439
Speaker 2: Paul.

747
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 9: The unemployment rates at four point one four point two

748
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 9: percent we think at year end, So that is still

749
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 9: a great environment. Now you've got the FED cutting, So

750
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 9: this is very bullish for risk assets. I think over

751
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 9: the over the medium term, great for bonds, great for stocks.

752
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 4: Where in stocks though I think it was Bank of America,

753
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 4: but saying this is a great point for mid cap

754
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 4: stocks because you get the valuation boosts from small caps

755
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 4: without kind of the risk and the slowing sales growth,

756
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 4: but you don't have sort of the top line like

757
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 4: you would for large.

758
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 9: Cap Yeah, I mean, I think that's a decent argument

759
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 9: I just think that really for me, and if the

760
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 9: business cycle has more room to go, then stocks will

761
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,280
Speaker 9: continue to make new highs, especially if.

762
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 10: You have now a supportive FED.

763
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:11,760
Speaker 9: So that's the lesson of history and all the different

764
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 9: business cycles. When you get to the end of the

765
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 9: business cycles when you really want to get worried about

766
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 9: equities and maybe get more defensive.

767
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 10: I don't think we're there yet. In the next six

768
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 10: to twelve months. I think the economy will continue to.

769
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 9: Grow so more like I guess the nineteen ninety style

770
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 9: soft landing, that would be what I envisioned for the economy.

771
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 1: Hey, Jeffrey, how about the US labor market. That's obviously

772
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: something that the FED looks carefully at here. What's your

773
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: kind of take on where we are with the labor market?

774
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 9: You know, well, everyone's been talking about the unemployment rate rising,

775
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 9: so in our view, that has you know, that has happened,

776
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 9: but it's due to a you know, perhaps good reason

777
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 9: expansion and labor supply that has helped the FED actually

778
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,760
Speaker 9: because that has eased some of the labor supply demand

779
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 9: mismatch wages have cooled a little bit. I think from

780
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 9: a central bank perspective, they like to see that the

781
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 9: labor market is in balance, but it has pushed up

782
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 9: the unemployment rate a little bit. I don't think we

783
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 9: uh the labor market is. It's definitely job growth has slowed,

784
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 9: but we're still seeing a decent enough job growth when

785
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 9: you look at the three month moving average of non

786
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 9: farm payrolls to keep I think downward pressure on the

787
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 9: unemployment rate. So when you look at our forecast out

788
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 9: into the middle of next year, still have a pretty

789
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,399
Speaker 9: low unemployment rate, right around four point one four point

790
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 9: two percent.

791
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 4: Okay, but that's the case, then why do we need

792
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 4: like nine rate cuts?

793
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 10: Yeah?

794
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 9: I mean I don't think you need nine. May I

795
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 9: think you could build you know, in our in our

796
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 9: model of it, you could build a case for let's

797
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 9: say three twenty five basis point cuts this year Alex,

798
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 9: and then two in the first half of next year.

799
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 9: So more like five not nine. Why Because you don't

800
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 9: need to be at five thirty on the funds rate.

801
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 9: If inflation is continuing to moderate, you can you can

802
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 9: take your foot off the brake a little bit if

803
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,919
Speaker 9: you will, so, but nine. I can't get on board

804
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,879
Speaker 9: with nine rate cuts at this point. That's much more

805
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 9: calamitous situation. I think that some investors have in mind.

806
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:06,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, that sounds about right. Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist, Peyton

807
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 1: and Regal.

808
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:12,240
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

809
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecar Play and Android

810
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

811
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

812
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

813
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at some of the regulatory aspects

814
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: for m and A. Jenriy, senior litigation analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.

815
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 1: It joins us here Tapestry Capri. What's going on with

816
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:38,439
Speaker 1: that big deal?

817
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, I deal to it. A lot of

818
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 6: people were surprised at the FTC sew to try to

819
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 6: block this wrapped trial. Yesterday was about an eight day

820
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 6: trial and closing arguments are coming up on September thirty.

821
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 6: I think the judge wanted a little time in between

822
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 6: to look at the evidence.

823
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 1: And this is.

824
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 6: All about two companies that would bring together handbags of

825
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 6: the brand's coach Kate's and Michael Cores of course, and

826
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 6: yes exactly, and the FTC is concerned that means they

827
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 6: would have too much market share in an overly concentrated

828
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 6: market for what they call affordable luxury or accessible luxury handbag.

829
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 4: I mean whatever Capri has westatchemed on me too. I

830
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 4: appreciate they're not handbags, but come on now, so what

831
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 4: do you think is going to happen?

832
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 6: You know, it's funny. I went into this thinking that

833
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 6: the FTC would win, and I came out after trial.

834
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 6: I sat through most of it now thinking that the

835
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 6: companies will win. They did a really good job defending

836
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 6: the market. And you know, the reason that initially I

837
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 6: thought it could go to the FTC is because it appeared,

838
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 6: at least superficially that they had a lot of documents

839
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 6: that showed that these companies really only considered each other

840
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 6: when it came to pricing and promotions and innovation with

841
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 6: the bags and changes in the bags. They suggested they

842
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 6: had a lot of data and evidence. You know, it

843
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 6: seemed that they would, but it just didn't really come

844
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 6: out in trial. And what we heard from witnesses was

845
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 6: really compelling testimony about how dynamic and changing the market is,

846
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:05,720
Speaker 6: how how much competition there is out there, fairly easy

847
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 6: entry for mom and pops or for somebody who has

848
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 6: a bag that's held by a celebrity on TikTok and

849
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 6: now you blow up, and that they really don't think

850
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 6: that there would be any ability to raise the price

851
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 6: of the Michael Core's bag post acquisition.

852
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 4: Definitely not. But that's can you buy that?

853
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't buy these bags on sale ever?

854
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 1: Can you again? You can?

855
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 9: Yeah?

856
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 6: Oh yes, I mean that's part of the issue. The

857
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 6: Cores bags have been on sale for a couple of

858
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 6: years now because the Core's brand is lost what they

859
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 6: call brand heat. In other words, the consumers don't think

860
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 6: it's that hip anymore or that cool anymore, and so

861
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 6: they've had to reduce the prices for those bags in

862
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,720
Speaker 6: order to get them to sell their product.

863
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,839
Speaker 4: It's made same thing, like coach, same thing.

864
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you can buy all these bags on Canal Street,

865
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 1: by the way.

866
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 6: I know exactly. And you know what that's the points

867
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 6: here is that when they calculated what the market shares

868
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 6: would be and what the concentration would be, they completely

869
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 6: left out any sales of pre owned handbags, which is

870
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 6: kind of a really burgeoning market right now. I mean

871
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 6: even Dillard's has a section for pre owned handbags.

872
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 4: Dillard's has a section for pre owned handbags.

873
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 6: Yes they do, and Alex, if you believe it, what

874
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 6: we heard in trial is that those sales outstripped the

875
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 6: sales of the new handbags.

876
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 1: Wow o, yeah, learn something new. She's going to the.

877
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 4: Well, I'm just I never thought of. You know, Dillards

878
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:26,879
Speaker 4: is like a high end fashion place, so the fact

879
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 4: that they have sort of, you know, recycled handbags is something.

880
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:31,959
Speaker 2: I was talking about.

881
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 4: Fakes.

882
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: By the way, No, we know, we.

883
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 4: Know, we just ignored you, all right, Jen, thanks a lot.

884
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 4: We appreciate that genery of a Bloomberg Intelligence. She is

885
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 4: our antitrust expert joining us on that. Also, we got

886
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 4: to take a look at Kroger and Alberson at some

887
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 4: point as well.

888
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apples, Spotify,

889
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you will get your podcasts. Listen live

890
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

891
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 2: the iHeart Radio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

892
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,720
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

893
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal m