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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go, throwing show. We're sitting up

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Speaker 2: to cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to

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Speaker 2: make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate Kaba Wanna pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast. I

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Speaker 3: am your host, Chris Raybund, and this is the NFL

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Speaker 3: Week twelve betting preview. On today's show, we'll be breaking

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Speaker 3: down our top six spread beats and a Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 3: also giving you our favorite total pick of the week,

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Speaker 3: our favorite teaser, moneyline parlay and survivor pool pick. But

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Speaker 3: of course we will starts as always by breaking down

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Speaker 3: Thursday night football matchup. And before we do that, in

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Speaker 3: just a moment, just a reminder to download the free

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Speaker 3: Action Network app for real time odds, box scores and

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Speaker 3: the capability to track every bet you make. Now, let's

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Speaker 3: get right into our Thursday Night Football Preseas.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: All right, For tonight's Action, we have the six and

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Speaker 3: four Coats, fresh off a big win over the Jacksonville Jaguars,

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Speaker 3: going to Houston to take on the six and four Texans.

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Speaker 3: Texans favored by three and a half, getting sixty six

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Speaker 3: percent of the bet seventy nine percent of the dollars.

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Speaker 3: The total is at forty five and a half with

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Speaker 3: seventy percent of the tickets and eighty five percent of

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Speaker 3: the dollars on the over.

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Speaker 4: And here to help me break.

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Speaker 3: Down the game, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, my

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Speaker 3: dude Stucky, who you can follow in the Action Network

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Speaker 3: app at Stucky two and you can follow me at

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Speaker 3: Chris Raybon Stuck.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? Man?

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Speaker 2: Hey, what's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 4: Not much?

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Speaker 3: I mean, get us right into What do you think

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Speaker 3: of this Texans Coast matchup?

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Speaker 2: This one? It's a tricky matchup now, generally for Thursday

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Speaker 2: night games. I always mentioned that the home team has

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Speaker 2: a slight edge, especially when you stay at home, which

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Speaker 2: isn't the case here, but you know both teams are

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Speaker 2: going to be traveling. Houston obviously had the worst loss

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Speaker 2: of de Shaun Watson's career. I think the most he

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Speaker 2: lost by prior to getting trucked in Baltimore was eight points,

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Speaker 2: and then the Cults are obviously coming off that win

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Speaker 2: at home. The short week also isn't as much of

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Speaker 2: an edge at home for home teams, I should say

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Speaker 2: in intra division, so you know, teams are more familiar

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Speaker 2: with each other, and the Colts have actually dominated this

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Speaker 2: series of late. I think Watson is one and three

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Speaker 2: against the Colts. Per set is four and l against

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Speaker 2: the Texans in his career. The first time that these

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Speaker 2: two teams matched up, I actually ended up playing the

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Speaker 2: Texans live. I didn't play them pregame at which cash

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Speaker 2: I didn't play them pre yame because of the coaching

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Speaker 2: this match here, and that's a factor again, especially a

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Speaker 2: short week, which is one of the things that I

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Speaker 2: do look at and from everything that I was reading

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Speaker 2: during their bye week, the Colts took a couple of

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Speaker 2: days after the Texans game to prepare for the Texans. Again,

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Speaker 2: they took a day during the week when they played

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Speaker 2: the Broncos to prepare for the Texans, knowing that they

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Speaker 2: have a short week without any practices this week. I

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Speaker 2: don't think the Texans were doing that, so I give

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Speaker 2: a huge edge to the staff on the Colts. Now,

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Speaker 2: I think that the Texans are a more talented team.

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Speaker 2: You know, their defense took a huge hit. You if

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Speaker 2: you look at any advanced metric, if you look at

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Speaker 2: DVOA took a huge hit last week. I mean they

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Speaker 2: played the Ravens and they don't have JJ Watt, who

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Speaker 2: not only hurts off the edge, but he hurts in

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Speaker 2: their run defense as well, which took a big, big

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Speaker 2: dip last week. That's going to be an important factor

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Speaker 2: here because again the Colts are hurt on the outside

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Speaker 2: and they're going to rely on their running game even

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Speaker 2: though Marlon Mack isn't there. Wilkins should be healthy and

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Speaker 2: he should be able to go. You know, but if

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Speaker 2: you look on the other side of the ball, the

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Speaker 2: Texans will have a huge edge on the outside, and

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Speaker 2: there's a number of injuries in the Colts secondary to

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Speaker 2: keep your eye on. You know, you might have the

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Speaker 2: rookie tail at one corner spot, I mean a Rockouse

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Speaker 2: Sin might be out. I mean, you might have Quincy

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Speaker 2: Wilson in there starting. So you would think that the

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Speaker 2: Texans will have a big edge on the outside. So

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Speaker 2: you know, the way that I'm looking at this is

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Speaker 2: you know, it's not a game I love either way.

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Speaker 2: So if I have a reason to stay away from

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Speaker 2: a Thursday night game, that's all I need. But you know,

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Speaker 2: if the Colts come out with a couple you know,

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Speaker 2: with a better game plan, more prepared, you know, hit

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Speaker 2: the Texans in the mouth early, as they did in

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Speaker 2: the first meeting, it is a spot that I'll look

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Speaker 2: for the Texans live. Otherwise I'll probably stay away And

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Speaker 2: keep in mind, just because of one week, the Colts

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Speaker 2: still don't have a kicker, remember that, everybody, the Colts

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Speaker 2: special team's been dreadful.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Colts, I mean they have kind of been

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Speaker 3: getting by. You know, they've been up and down. They

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Speaker 3: lost that game to the Dolphins that they should not

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Speaker 3: have lost, you know, regardless of what was going on.

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Speaker 4: For quarterback situation.

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Speaker 3: I think in in this game, you kind of look

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Speaker 3: at at the two teams and say, yeah, coaching mismatch

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Speaker 3: favors Indie, quarterback favors Houston. So I think the line

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Speaker 3: is probably about right. I would expect kind of a

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Speaker 3: rebound performance from the Texas. Now. The one thing too,

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Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson looked like he got a little banged up

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Speaker 3: all day. Yeah, so that could kind of play into

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Speaker 3: these things. You know, we already saw the coach take

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Speaker 3: advantage when Patrick Mahomes was you know, slightly banged up

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Speaker 3: and obviously got more banged up as that game progressed

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Speaker 3: and as the season progressed. But you know, that's something

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Speaker 3: a monitor and I think that kind of, you know,

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Speaker 3: that uncertainty probably needs me to stay away from. This

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Speaker 3: one looks like the big money, at least for now

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Speaker 3: as we record this on a Wednesday night, is on

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Speaker 3: the Texans and the overs well fuller looks like a

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Speaker 3: game time decision.

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Speaker 4: T Y Hilton too, he owns.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like I think it was on his Wikipedia page

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Speaker 3: at one point during one of those games, like somebody

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Speaker 3: went and updated to t Y Hilton is the owner

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Speaker 3: of the Houston Texans. So if he's out there, I

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Speaker 3: think that's a big boost to Indianapolis because if not,

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Speaker 3: it really does come down to that coaching staff and

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Speaker 3: being able to kind of scheme enough offense for a

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Speaker 3: run game centered around Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins and

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Speaker 3: then a pass game centered around Dak Pascal and Marcus Johnson.

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Speaker 3: And it looks like Eric Ebron's bang up, so Jack Doyle,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it could get ugly for Indianapolis just from

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Speaker 3: a talent perspective at the skill positions. You know, if

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Speaker 3: if Houston is kind of able to hit some big

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Speaker 3: plays with Deshaun Watson and gain some separations.

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Speaker 4: So I do agree. I think this might be more

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Speaker 4: of a live.

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Speaker 3: Betting game than when you kind of feel confident about

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Speaker 3: heading into it.

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Speaker 2: It's tough on Thursday. I keep your eye on who's available,

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Speaker 2: especially on the colt side in that secondary, because that'll

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Speaker 2: have a you know, this could feed into you know,

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Speaker 2: a live play as well. But the Texans run defense,

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Speaker 2: which you know all year greatd elite, didn't look so

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Speaker 2: elite last week. And you just can't quantify the impact

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Speaker 2: of JJ Watt, one of the most important people I

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Speaker 2: think probably number one. He's worth all you two and

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Speaker 2: a half points to the spread. That's unprecedented for an

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Speaker 2: NFL defensive player. And those are just mineumbers. Someone could

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Speaker 2: say's worth one win or two points. But his impact

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Speaker 2: not only off the edge and creating havoc in huge place,

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Speaker 2: but also in the run defense and the attention that

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Speaker 2: he draws. It's just a huge blow to the Texans defense, who,

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Speaker 2: as you might recall, also lost Clowney in the offseason.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and the Colts.

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Speaker 3: Marlon Mack ran for fourteen one hundred and nine in

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Speaker 3: a touch last week and he's out. But in that

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Speaker 3: same game against the Jaguars, Jonathan Williams thirteen carries for

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixteen yards, and then Naim Hines also

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Speaker 3: carried three times for eleven and a touch. So the

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Speaker 3: Coats run game got going. Their offensive line is not

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Speaker 3: going away. You just it's one of those situations where

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Speaker 3: I don't think the Colts want to fall behind. I

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Speaker 3: don't think they're in a position to play as well

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Speaker 3: from behind. But if they could start the game strong

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Speaker 3: and kind of make make Bill O'Brien have to make

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Speaker 3: some decisions, I think that's where they have the edge.

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Speaker 3: Bill O'Brien, as he kind of alluded to, he's thirteen

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Speaker 3: and twenty two against the spread in his career against

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Speaker 3: winning teams per bet Lab, So that is that's kind

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Speaker 3: of indicative of his struggles and the home favorite. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: two and five this season against the spread, but seventy four,

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Speaker 3: forty eight and four on Thursday Night, going back to

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Speaker 3: two thousand and three, so we will see if that

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Speaker 3: if that rebounds, but you can kind of make a

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Speaker 3: case for both sides here as we do every week.

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Speaker 3: Let's conclude our Thursday night breakdown with the coaches pep talk,

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Speaker 3: and this one goes out to the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 2: You've allowed no time for analysis or decision making. Can

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Speaker 2: we get serious now?

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Speaker 4: All right, stucky, time for the main event, the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, So last week we both held.

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Speaker 3: Serve and that means you maintained your two point cushion

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Speaker 3: over me.

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Speaker 4: I have first pick this week.

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Speaker 3: And I am going with the San Francisco forty nine

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Speaker 3: Ers three point favorites over the Green Bay Packers and

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Speaker 3: which should be hopefully an entertaining game. And the reason being, look,

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Speaker 3: I know the forty nine ers are banged up. They're

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Speaker 3: dealing with injuries to George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, if the

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Speaker 3: Deebo Samuel got banged up with quite looks like he's

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Speaker 3: going to be okay, d Ford, So some key players

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Speaker 3: on the forty nine ers banged up, but.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, D four, doubtful.

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Speaker 4: Just don't.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's I don't think he's going to play. But

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Speaker 3: all that being said, I do not view these teams,

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Speaker 3: even with the forty nine ers cluster of injuries, as

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Speaker 3: essentially equal on a neutral field, which is what this

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Speaker 3: line would imply. With the forty nine Ers installed as

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Speaker 3: three point favorites. I am at you know, that's a

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Speaker 3: pretty conservative line. I know the public does indeed like

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Speaker 3: to back the Green Bay Packers, so I'm not totally

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Speaker 3: surprised by it, but I think the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 3: are a couple of points better than the Green Bay

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Speaker 3: Packers even with these injuries.

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Speaker 4: The Green Bay Packers have been getting a little bit lucky.

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Speaker 3: If you look at their Patzagara and win theorem, which

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Speaker 3: essentially just your point differential over time is going to

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Speaker 3: be more indicative of your true win loss record, your

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Speaker 3: true ability to win games than your prior win loss

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Speaker 3: record actually is. And so Packers are a six and

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Speaker 3: four team if you look at that, and the forty

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Speaker 3: nine Ers are over an eight win team. So there

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Speaker 3: is a significant difference between these two teams. Forty nine

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Speaker 3: Ers at home. I think that you know they've and

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Speaker 3: another thing is they played pretty well given their injuries,

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Speaker 3: because they've been suffering injuries all year and they've been

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Speaker 3: playing well and kind of compensating for it in different ways.

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Speaker 4: I think the loss of D four does hurt.

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Speaker 3: You always want to kind of the cover to be

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Speaker 3: full against Aaron Rodgers, but this is still a deep

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Speaker 3: forty nine Ers defense. They got Witherspoon back on the

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Speaker 3: back end, so I think they'll still be able to cover.

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Speaker 4: They still have a couple of studs up.

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Speaker 3: Even though it's standing out a little bit, this Packer

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Speaker 3: team is just kind of, you know, the offense, they're

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Speaker 3: going to rely on their running game, which is what

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Speaker 3: I think you want to do against San Francisco. San

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Speaker 3: Francisco has been weaker against the run, lights out against

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Speaker 3: the pass. So ultimately what it comes down to is

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Speaker 3: I don't think Green Bay defense has been quite as

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Speaker 3: good after the hot start to the season, and San

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Speaker 3: Francisco has just been getting it done week in week out.

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Speaker 3: They're only lost kind of a game that could could

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Speaker 3: have really gone either way against the Seattle Seahawks, one

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Speaker 3: score game which we don't put too much stock into.

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Speaker 2: Look, I somewhat disagree. I mean, you also have the

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Speaker 2: Packers coming off of a bye, which has to be

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Speaker 2: a factor in the considering show. This is the third

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Speaker 2: straight home game for sand fram But there's a couple

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Speaker 2: things you know that I don't like. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: just to knock off the NFC playoff picture, these two

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Speaker 2: teams have a buye right now. It's an enormous, enormous

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Speaker 2: game because the Packers are eight and two, but they

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Speaker 2: have a tiebreaker over the Saints who are eight and two,

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Speaker 2: so you know it's going to be between those three

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Speaker 2: teams for you know, buy and then this this game

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Speaker 2: will go a long way in determining home field. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's either going to be Packers tied with the forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers but with a game in hand in the

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Speaker 2: head to head, or the forty nine Ers up two

258
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Speaker 2: games with a head to head to advantage over the Packers,

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Speaker 2: which would be huge. But I do want to just say, look,

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Speaker 2: you know, you can look at the Patagona Inferien and look,

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Speaker 2: I've been on the Packers band wagons is before the season,

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Speaker 2: and then I've also relinquished the fact that they have

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Speaker 2: been a bit lucky. But you know, their strength of

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Speaker 2: schedule is significantly has been significantly tougher than the forty

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Speaker 2: nine Ers. Their striketh the schedule is about five hundred,

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Speaker 2: one of the toughest in the NFC. The forty nine

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Speaker 2: Ers are three eighty two, and what that means is

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Speaker 2: thirty eight point two win percentage. That's the total combined

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Speaker 2: winning percentage of the teams that they've played. The forty

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Speaker 2: nine strike the victory is three thirty seven. The Packers

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Speaker 2: are or fifty one point eight percent. So you know,

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Speaker 2: the Packers have had a much tougher schedule. One of

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Speaker 2: the things that is really intriguing to me here, you know,

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Speaker 2: say you look at you know, football outsiders, and you

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Speaker 2: look at each team's rush offense DVOA. It's which is

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Speaker 2: adjusting for opponent. You know, the Packers which have this

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Speaker 2: significantly better rush offense, you know, they're ranked i think

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Speaker 2: fourth and pass offense and rush offense, and the forty

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Speaker 2: nine Ers are now ranked twenty first in rush offense.

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Speaker 2: You know, that's adjusting for their really easy schedule. The

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers I still consider an elite rushing team.

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Speaker 2: But and this is a huge butt it's when George

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Speaker 2: Kittle plays, you know, so if you want to talk

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Speaker 2: about you know, for baseball fans out there, Mike Trout,

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Speaker 2: you know, we always look at war in baseball. I mean,

286
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Speaker 2: Mike Trout's war every single year is astronomical. Well, if

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Speaker 2: we had the same measure for football, Kittles would be

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Speaker 2: out of this world in a different statusphy. And the

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Speaker 2: reason for that. Obviously, he's for my money, the best

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Speaker 2: tight end receiving tight end in the NFL. But his

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Speaker 2: run blocking and then the attention that he that he demands,

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Speaker 2: they don't really have a tight end without him, but

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Speaker 2: the attention that he demands from the linebackers and safeties

294
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Speaker 2: obviously opens up the running game. Additionally, his run blocking

295
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Speaker 2: and his ability to block on the edge is huge,

296
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Speaker 2: and you saw that against the Cardinals last week. They

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Speaker 2: just did that losing and you know, look, the Packers

298
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Speaker 2: have two great edge defenders. So the status of Kittle

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Speaker 2: is not only supremely important for you know, their passing

300
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Speaker 2: game and the forty nine Ers are just so much better.

301
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Speaker 2: I mean, he's the best tight end in football for

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Speaker 2: my money. But they're running game and that's one of

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Speaker 2: the reasons. You see why are the forty nine ers

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Speaker 2: midpack to below midpack. You know, in some of these

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Speaker 2: advanced metrics and rush off because the rush office has

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Speaker 2: taken a hit since Kittle has been sidelined. His presence

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Speaker 2: will probably make the difference whether or not he plays,

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Speaker 2: and from what everything I've heard from Shannan is it's

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Speaker 2: a game time decision. So that is enormous for me,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think there's going to be any of

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Speaker 2: us who know until Sunday if he's definitely playing or not.

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Speaker 2: So I just wanted to point that out.

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Speaker 3: San Francisco has fallen off in their running game, at

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Speaker 3: least efficiency wise. I mean, I think part of that

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Speaker 3: is they've run so much that at some point it's

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Speaker 3: just going to become less and less efficient.

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Speaker 2: But absence though you have to group.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, but the Packers are twenty eighth in

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Speaker 3: rushing DV away themselves, so this has not been a

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Speaker 3: good run defense. And one of the things that kind

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Speaker 3: of helps a little bit even if George Kittle were

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Speaker 3: to miss is they do have Kyle ustcheck back, who

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Speaker 3: is just as good of a run blocker at his position,

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Speaker 3: which you know these days, I mean, he's essentially going

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Speaker 3: to play a lot of the in the same positions

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Speaker 3: that Kiddle would have lined up if Kiddle were to

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Speaker 3: be out.

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Speaker 4: That's kind of how they do it.

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Speaker 3: I do think that is the one thing in San

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Speaker 3: Francisco's pass defense still elite, which is a factor that

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Speaker 3: kind of helps out a little bit when you know

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Speaker 3: you're facing Aaron Rodgers obviously, so it's not going to

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Speaker 3: be easy, but I just think that you take everything

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Speaker 3: you put it together. I don't think that you could

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Speaker 3: say these two teams are equal, evenly matched on a

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Speaker 3: neutral field at this point in the season. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you can't help who you play at some point. So

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Speaker 3: I think the forty nine ers are going to give

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Speaker 3: the Packers some problems, and I think there's value on

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Speaker 3: this number at three.

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Speaker 2: All right, for my pick, I am fading. The last

342
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Speaker 2: time I did this, this sparked out from a number one pick.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, we are the scores thirty three

344
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Speaker 2: thirty one. So it's a hell of a race and

345
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Speaker 2: contest so far. And I'm right on my goal. I

346
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Speaker 2: wanted three points a week through and I still can't

347
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Speaker 2: get separation from you. You know, I have to be

348
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Speaker 2: really confident this to do this. I'm fading the Patriots

349
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Speaker 2: with my two point pick. This week. Look, I know

350
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Speaker 2: the Patriots are sixty two point four percent against the spread,

351
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Speaker 2: covering by almost four points per game at home with

352
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Speaker 2: Tom Brady as quarterback. There's seventy three, forty four and

353
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Speaker 2: five against the spreads in two thousand and three. That's insane.

354
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Speaker 2: That's a twenty one point eight percent ROI but this

355
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Speaker 2: line is crazy to me. And I have a feeling

356
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Speaker 2: if you're out there listening, this line's gonna get hammered

357
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Speaker 2: and it's going to come down eventually. I bought some

358
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Speaker 2: to seven of some six and a half. And look,

359
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Speaker 2: I just just Patriots team. You want to talk about,

360
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Speaker 2: you know, easy schedules, we said, we said that with

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, Well, the Patriots have had one

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Speaker 2: of the easiest schedules in the NFL. I mean, it's

363
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Speaker 2: really amazing if you look at what the Patriots have

364
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Speaker 2: done this year. I mean, look that they're one of

365
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Speaker 2: the best teams in the NFL. You're never going to

366
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Speaker 2: hear me not say that, but this team does have

367
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Speaker 2: issues and they've just been masked. You know, they're nine

368
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Speaker 2: to one, but they've been masked with their easy schedule.

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Speaker 2: I mean, just look at their schedule. Tell me one

370
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Speaker 2: team they've beat with a winning record, and it's the Bills.

371
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Speaker 2: That's it. That is the only team with a winning

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Speaker 2: record that they've beat all year. It's pretty amazing. Where

373
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Speaker 2: through eleven weeks it must be nice to play in

374
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Speaker 2: the AFCs. The Bills and the Patriots through eleven weeks

375
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Speaker 2: have a combined six team wins and they haven't beat

376
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Speaker 2: a single good team outside of their division. So besides

377
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Speaker 2: where they played each other, they've beat nobody. The best

378
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Speaker 2: win between them two is the Bills beating the Titans.

379
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Speaker 2: I believe that is the best way that they've had.

380
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Speaker 2: So this Patriots offense still has lots of issues and

381
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Speaker 2: they're you know, Nowson News is dealing with an injury

382
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Speaker 2: on the outside, but it's all the rotating pieces.

383
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Speaker 1: Now.

384
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Speaker 2: They will get Isaiah Win back at left tackle. He

385
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Speaker 2: should help. That's been an issue. He's got to come in,

386
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Speaker 2: he's got to get reacclimated. There might be some rust there.

387
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:05,560
Speaker 2: But the offensive line still isn't elite. I think it'll

388
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Speaker 2: get there by the end of the year. I mean,

389
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Speaker 2: with one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL, Brady,

390
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 2: He's getting older and eventually you're going to see some

391
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Speaker 2: diminished performance. And last week in the first half against

392
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Speaker 2: the Eagles, against the Eagles secondary, he had the most

393
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Speaker 2: incompletions in a first half that he's ever had in

394
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Speaker 2: his career. You know, they can't really run the ball.

395
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Speaker 2: They're giving up pressure. The Eagles have pressure all day long.

396
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 2: Cowboys are gonna be able to control the line of scrimmage.

397
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 2: And the Cowboys offense is humming along this offense. And look,

398
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,880
Speaker 2: they have a really good back. It is Ekiel Elliott,

399
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 2: and you know, I think has been you know, they

400
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 2: should have paid Dak and not him, But they still

401
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 2: have a really good back who could take advantage of

402
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 2: a defense, a run defense in New England that is

403
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 2: still middle of the pack at best. It can still

404
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 2: be exploited. We saw that with the Ravens. And guess what,

405
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott who's playing so well right now. He is mobile.

406
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 2: Not only is he throwing it as well as any

407
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 2: quarterback in the NFL, he can move and he can run.

408
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,639
Speaker 2: And why is that important? Well, mobile quarterbacks have always

409
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 2: given Bill Belichick problems and there's a reason for that.

410
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: They play a ton of man on the outside, which

411
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 2: they're gonna have to do here with the Cowboys receivers,

412
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 2: They're gonna play a ton of man, which means you know,

413
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 2: when your receivers are going out in their routes, if

414
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 2: you just got get by that first first line of

415
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 2: pressure where you get outside, you're gonna have a lot

416
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 2: of room to run and pick up first downs extent drives,

417
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,639
Speaker 2: which is going to be important for Prescott to do.

418
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Speaker 2: I have these teams almost pretty close to even as

419
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 2: of right now, and I think New England may eventually

420
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Speaker 2: surpass Dallas as they figure out some of their offensive issues.

421
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Speaker 2: And they just had so many rotating parts on the outside.

422
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:41,640
Speaker 2: I mean, now you have Nikhil Harry, their first one

423
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 2: draft pick, is back in his second game, and it

424
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 2: makes sense. The time he's been off. The offensive line

425
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 2: has been great. You've had Antonio Brown there, you had

426
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 2: Josh Gordon there, they're no longer there. You have Edelman

427
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 2: has been banged up. You've had a rotating carousel at

428
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 2: tight end. You have you brought in SiNW Now he's

429
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 2: heard he didn't practice today. Door set has been there

430
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,919
Speaker 2: from the beginning, but he's hurt. Now he didn't practice today.

431
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 2: So I mean it's understandable that the timing is a

432
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 2: little off. The running game not working well doesn't help.

433
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Speaker 2: So you know, it's just an offense that isn't that

434
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 2: great right now. And I know that there's a big

435
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: coaching advantage here with Belichick first, Garrett, But if you

436
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 2: can buy the seven, which I recommend doing, this line

437
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 2: is way too high. I think that they're gonna have

438
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 2: a shot the pull of the upset.

439
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 3: As good as the numbers have been for Jacket, and

440
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,360
Speaker 3: you look at the schedule, and and they should be

441
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: because they faced the Giants, the Redskins, the Miami Dolphins,

442
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 3: the New York Jets, that Eagles secondary when it was

443
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 3: still pretty banged up, the Detroit Lions, which can't figure

444
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 3: out how to play defense. I guess maybe it's Bill

445
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 3: Belichick and not Matt Patricia that that's good at defense.

446
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 4: I don't know.

447
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: Then you look and you kind of look beneath the

448
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: surface at this at this Cowboys team, and you kind

449
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 3: of alluded to the coaching issue. This was a team

450
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 3: that I bet against against the Minnesota Vikings, you know,

451
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 3: at home, and in a game many thought that that

452
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 3: the Cowboys should have should have taken care of business

453
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 3: and the Cowboy don't have a win versus a winning team.

454
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 3: The Cowboys have beat the Giants, the Redskins, the Dolphins,

455
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 3: the Eagles who are five hundred now, the Giants again,

456
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 3: and the three six and one Detroit Lions.

457
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 4: They have no wins. You're in the same boat as

458
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 4: the Patriots.

459
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 2: But I don't need them to win. They're gonna lose

460
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: by three. We all know it's gonna happen.

461
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 3: And it's funny you say that, because that very well

462
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 3: might be true, because they'll probably be down seven or

463
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 3: and you know, driving with like three minutes to go

464
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 3: deep in Patriot's territory or down six, and Jason Garrett

465
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: will kick a field goal.

466
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: Just fine by Team Garrett. That happens.

467
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 3: Jason Garrett against the spread versus winning teams in his

468
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 3: career twenty seven to thirty five and two forty four percent.

469
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 3: And it's kind of it's been a problem because even

470
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 3: with Dak Prescott, you know, playing well for the Cowboys

471
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 3: in his career, he's just nine and sixteen against spread

472
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 3: thirty six percent when they go up against the winning team.

473
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 3: And you've kind of seen those issues come to the

474
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 3: forefront this season.

475
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 2: Two games that I think we partly disagree on both

476
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 2: for two points could be exactly so.

477
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 4: I said, it's shaping up as one of my favorite weeks.

478
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 3: But for my next pick, pretty ugly, kind of similar situation.

479
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 3: Team probably wouldn't really be talking about much at all

480
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: this season if it wasn't for this podcast and trying

481
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: to find some value on the board here and going

482
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 3: back to these New York Jets, These these pesky little

483
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 3: New York Jets who just started off the season miserably

484
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: and then wade an egg against Jacksonville, and now they've

485
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,959
Speaker 3: kind of turned it around, a little bit, beat up

486
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 3: on some on some shaky teams, and you have to

487
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 3: start kind of looking at these teams that are a

488
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 3: little bit overrated, you know, according to their win loss record.

489
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 3: And I think one of those teams is the Oakland Raiders,

490
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 3: and I like what John Gruden is doing there. I

491
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 3: think Derek Carr is kind of acquitting himself well, mastering

492
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 3: this offense a lot better in his second year.

493
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 4: This Jets defense.

494
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 3: Has underratedly been a little better than people think, despite

495
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 3: you know, kind of some turmoil, this defense has been

496
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 3: pretty good. Oakland going on, going across the country kind

497
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 3: of a trap spot for them where they could come

498
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 3: out a little bit flat in this spot, and I

499
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 3: like taking the points here with the Jets. I think

500
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,479
Speaker 3: a couple of things for the Jets. Number One, they

501
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 3: played really good run defenses. We've talked about this in

502
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 3: the past. That's why I like them last week against Washington.

503
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 3: And I think the Raiders offense at this point their

504
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,239
Speaker 3: passing game and the numbers they put up in their

505
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 3: passing game.

506
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 4: You mentioned it.

507
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 3: They've been playing in all these games that go over

508
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 3: to total and so they've been behind, they've had to

509
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 3: throw the ball. The numbers look good, and they have

510
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 3: some good players there. But I think this offense at

511
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 3: this point centers around your boy Josh Jacobs. He has been,

512
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 3: as you mentioned every week, one of the best running

513
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: backs in the league this season. So anytime you're gonna

514
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 3: tell me that Oakland, a team centered around Josh Jacobs

515
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 3: and that rushing attack is going to go across the

516
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 3: country to play a defense that ranks number two in

517
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: the league in rushing DVOA, I'm going to my eyebrows

518
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 3: are going to kind of be raised, especially when that

519
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: team is a three point favorite. So I think it

520
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 3: will be a struggle for Oakland and Oakwa's not just

521
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: going to Just because they've been efficient for the most

522
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 3: part on offense doesn't mean they're necessarily going to be

523
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 3: kind of smashing teams week in and week out. Again,

524
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: a lot of their their production has been somewhat game

525
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 3: script driven. They put up just seventeen points against the

526
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 3: Bengals defense that pound for pound might be the worst

527
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 3: in the league at this point, just because they're so

528
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 3: devoid of talent and probably probably tanking at this point.

529
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 3: I'm not sure how how mentally checked in they are.

530
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 3: So you know, Derek Carr ran for a touchdown in

531
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 3: that one that was that was a great play on him.

532
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 3: But this Jets defense, they've they've kind of come on

533
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: a little stronger against the pass in recent weeks. I

534
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 3: just think that too many points, the Jets passing game

535
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 3: is starting to come to life.

536
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 4: Jameson Crowder with Sam.

537
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: Donald has been one of I think the underwook stories

538
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 3: of the year in terms of a good pickup because

539
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 3: week in week out he's getting seventy eighty yards finding

540
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: the end zone with Donald, that connection has been strong.

541
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: Open g It's no pressure and you still have Wayveon

542
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,239
Speaker 3: Bell to deal with in the run game. I think

543
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 3: the Jets can kind of operate a more balanced attacking

544
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 3: this spot to bad defenses.

545
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 4: Give me the home team get into three points.

546
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it here. I might end up teasing them,

547
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean the Raiders. I've loved what they've

548
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: done on offense, and I always say their defense is terrible.

549
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: So I think the Jets will be able to move

550
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 2: the ball. Donald is playing confident. They really do. They

551
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 2: also struggle with slid receivers, as you said, so crowd. Yeah,

552
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 2: so Crowder should have a huge day. And yeah, the Jets.

553
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: The entire Raiders offense, so why I love it. I mean,

554
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 2: their offensive line is really good, but the Jets defensive

555
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 2: line can match up, and their entire offense starts with

556
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs, and the Jets have been and they've showed

557
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 2: it every week. They're one of the best run defenses

558
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 2: in the NFL, probably a lot closer to even than

559
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 2: most think. And the market is indicating here with the

560
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 2: Raiders being a three point favorite, which is assuming they're

561
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: around six points better the Jets, which I don't think

562
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 2: is the case. Chad Mellman, who most of you and

563
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 2: probably all of you know he put out a good article,

564
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 2: not only because he said good things about me on

565
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: betting bad teams. And one of the things he said

566
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: about the Raiders and he likes the Jets this week

567
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: as well is you can look at their record or

568
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 2: how well they've played. They've been outscored by twenty five

569
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: net points this year. Yeah, overall, So check that out

570
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 2: if you haven't already.

571
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 3: Shouts to my guy Chad Millman getting it in with

572
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 3: the pythagorin wings and the point differentials.

573
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: I'll see you chat. Well done. All right, For my

574
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: next player, I'm going with the Denver Broncos. Uh. They've

575
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 2: covered four or five straight. I've been in them on

576
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 2: them a bunch. These two teams are and by the way,

577
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 2: you know, so you look at the Bills, they are

578
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 2: seven and three. They've beat they have no they've had

579
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: no good wins. They beat the Titans. That's their best

580
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: win they've had. Their strength of victory is to fourteen

581
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 2: two fourteen. That's twenty one percent. It's seven wins with

582
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 2: a two fourteen strength of victory. So that means that

583
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: all if you take all the teams they beat, they

584
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: have a basically a twenty percent winning percentage. They literally

585
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 2: have played one of the easy schedules I've ever seen

586
00:26:56,119 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: for a seven win team. Meanwhile, the Broncos, you know,

587
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: have lost a number of games they could have won.

588
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 2: We've talked about this earlier in the other kind of

589
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 2: robbed against Green Bay. They lost two games at the

590
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: with last second field goals against the Jags and the Bears.

591
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 2: Earlier in the season. You know, they lost to the

592
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 2: Colts by two in a game they could have won.

593
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 2: You know, they lost to the Vikings after leading twenty nothing.

594
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 2: So these teams, if they played a similar schedule, they

595
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 2: probably have the same record. But these are basically mirrors.

596
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: These two teams are merors. They both have quarterbacks named Alan,

597
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: They both have one good receiver on the outside that

598
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 2: they can throw to. Brown and Sunn.

599
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 4: What's that tough matter for John Brown this week?

600
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 2: Yes, but I trust yeah, and they both have good secondaries.

601
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 2: But what it comes down to to me is I

602
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: trust the Broncos run defense, and the Broncos run offense

603
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 2: more than the Bills run offense, and more importantly, their

604
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: run defense. So the Broncos, their defense has been excellent

605
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 2: all year. You have to give them credit. They keep fighting. Yeah,

606
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 2: and Harris will be shattowing Brown. It won't be like

607
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: last week when you had a rookie and undrafted rookie

608
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 2: from UTEP shadowing John Brown gets targeted fourteen times it

609
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 2: went off. He'll be shadowed by one of the best

610
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: corners in the NFL this week. But the Bills run defense,

611
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: We've talked about it. It's been one of the worst

612
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 2: in the NFL this year. I think the Broncos, just

613
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: like the Browns did, can exploit it. I think you're

614
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 2: gonna have a big day for the Browns backs, both quarterbacks. Yeah,

615
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 2: they're not going to kill you downfield. They might hit

616
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 2: a player two here or there, but that's basically what

617
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: I think the difference is. And two teams that are

618
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 2: pretty much even to me. But the Bills defense, if

619
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: you want to look at check Football outsiders, Yeah, the

620
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 2: Bills run defense is twenty seventh in the NFL. The

621
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: Broncos of a top ten run offense and a top

622
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: ten run defense. So I think that is the difference.

623
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: By the way, two awful punters in this game, which

624
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: could have an impact, but I think that ends up

625
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 2: being the difference here. The Bills aren't that good people.

626
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: They might make the playoffs, and the terrible AFC. You

627
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 2: know your past defense is good and Josh allenill run

628
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: a little bit. And John Browns having a good year.

629
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 2: He's a good receiver on the outside, but he has

630
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: a bad matchup and this Bill's run defense, I think

631
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 2: is going to get exploited. This is probably a field

632
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: goal game either way. But give me the four plus

633
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 2: with the Broncos.

634
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: If I got Booger McFarlane was here from Monday Night Football.

635
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 3: The only thing he'd probably say is Andy Janovich, the

636
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 3: full back. They lost him for the year the Denver Broncos.

637
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: He was a big part of their running game. So

638
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 3: looks like they signed orson Charles and they'll use him

639
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 3: in Andrew Beck. I believe it is to kind of

640
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 3: make it up, But yeah, I think there's still a

641
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: big advantage for Denver to exploit in this run game

642
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: to even we match the team.

643
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 4: So no issue with that pick.

644
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 3: So for my third pick, and I feel like every

645
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 3: time we get to this point, it's like, oh, so

646
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 3: it's an ugly card trying to make it through and

647
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 3: hold serve here, So go back to the tried and

648
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: true method of betting against mister Mitched Trubisky and going

649
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 3: with the Giants plus six against.

650
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 4: The Chicago Bears.

651
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 3: I think that I like the Giants for a couple

652
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 3: of reasons, and listen, they're not getting better.

653
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 4: They're bad team.

654
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 3: We saw that play out against the Jets and picked

655
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 3: against him in that spot. The bye week I think

656
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: does help some of the Giants' main issues. Number one

657
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 3: being that the defense was just plagued by coverage busts

658
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 3: all season long, especially in that secondary, and I think

659
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 3: having that extra week does help kind of get something situated.

660
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 3: You know, we saw that with the with the Falcons

661
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: when you know they went on and buy Now branded,

662
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 3: they ultimate the coaching changes and move things around. But

663
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: that does kind of help get guys on the same

664
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: page and and shore things up going forward. Also, I

665
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 3: think another one of the Giants main issues has obviously

666
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: been health and not just you know, the skill positions.

667
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 4: Evan Ingram probably misses another game.

668
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 3: We'll see about Sterling Shepherd, but uh, you know, that

669
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 3: offensive line has been banged up and whatnot, So I

670
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 3: think that you know, that will help, and then you

671
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 3: have a young quarterback Daniel Jones. This will be his

672
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 3: first extended time off to kind of take stock, and

673
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: you know he's been he's been playing okay, but it's

674
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: the turnovers have really been an issue.

675
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 4: So perhaps he can clean some of those things up.

676
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: So let's hear it for Danny Dimes.

677
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 4: Just a bunch of widow edges. I think for the

678
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: Giants coming out of the by.

679
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: Meanwhile, Bears on a semi short week after getting run

680
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 3: over by the Rams. Literally, Saquon Barkley the talk of

681
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: the you know locally for the Giants, that's Saquon Barkley.

682
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 3: The thing he wanted to work on during the by

683
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 3: is his inside running, and I think that is actually

684
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 3: a positive if especially with the O line getting a

685
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,239
Speaker 3: little bit healthier, because we saw what the Rams were

686
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 3: able to do to the Bears and and how you're

687
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 3: gonna how you can play the Bears with their offense

688
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 3: in this state, because you know, the Giants are team

689
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: that you kind of want to line up and throw

690
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 3: the ball all around the yard and make them place

691
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 3: a high volume of pass plays and you can kind

692
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: of count on eventually they're gonna they're gonna have some

693
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 3: coverage busts Corey Ballentine DeAndre Baker, the rookie. Uh, just

694
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 3: a lot of miscommunication. But I don't know if Matt Naggy.

695
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 3: It doesn't look like Matt Naggy's going to be willing

696
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: to do that. You know, this whole thing with Trubisky

697
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 3: versus Chase Daniels hanging over their head. And if the

698
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 3: Bears don't come out strong in that first quarter against

699
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 3: the New York Giants in Chicago, it's going to get

700
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 3: ugly fast and be a tough environment for the Bears

701
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 3: to play. And I think, and let's not forget the

702
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 3: Giants with Ewi Manning. By the way, Eli Manning against

703
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 3: a better Bears defense last season, got to win against Chicago.

704
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 3: Their second best receiver for the Bears is Tarik Cohen,

705
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 3: and that's you know, that's not three cones. A good

706
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 3: football player, but that's a problem. I think Anthony Miller

707
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: will probably be a big key for the Bears in

708
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 3: this one. You know, he kind of came alive against

709
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 3: the Rams a little bit, but they can't throw. You

710
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 3: can't have Tailor Gabriel getting fourteen targets. And you know,

711
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 3: I'm sure you we'll see Genoris Jenkins on Awen Robinson

712
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 3: and they'll try to take.

713
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 4: Him out of the game.

714
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 3: So you know, I think those secondary guys for the

715
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 3: Bears will come in handy, But ultimately, I just don't

716
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 3: think the Bears are in a position to cover as

717
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 3: six point favorites against pretty much anyone in the league

718
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: this side of Miami, and even Miami's been pretty feisty lately,

719
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: so too many points for the Bears. They're built to

720
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: win field goal games, except they don't have a kicker,

721
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 3: So give me the Giants, Corol.

722
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: It's not how much of a field on here. I

723
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: got to see his playing quarterback. I will say Trubisky

724
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: has random good games every eight weeks against bad secondaries.

725
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 2: Don't read anything into it, so maybe he has one

726
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 2: of those. The Bears defense is still pretty good. The

727
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: thing that Giants got to clean up is Daniel Jones turnovers.

728
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 2: He's more turnover worthy plays than any quarterback in the NFL.

729
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 2: So that's the thing you worried about with a Bear's defense.

730
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 2: It's still good. It's not as elite as it was

731
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: last year, but you know, with a Khalil Mack coming

732
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 2: around the edge is going to steal the ball and

733
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: run for a touchdown like you saw with the Jets. Literally,

734
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: So that's the only thing I worry about there. But

735
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: your pick is not as ugly as my third pick.

736
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals. So I did back

737
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 2: last week and they cashed for me. And this is

738
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 2: really this isn't a play on the Cincinnati Bengals. This

739
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: is a fade of the Steelers here in a spot.

740
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 2: I will always fade Mike Tomlin as a road favorite,

741
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: especially against a bad team. Let's just go through quick

742
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 2: numbers here. Mike tom twenty five thirty four and one

743
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 2: against the spread negative fifteen point three percent RI that's

744
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:04,959
Speaker 2: the worst among one hundred and one coaches who've been

745
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: a road favorite since two thousand and three against teams

746
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 2: with a losing record. He's thirteen twenty seven and one

747
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: against the spread. That's thirty less than thirty three percent,

748
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 2: failing the cover by over a field goal, a game

749
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 2: worst among ninety nine coaches ROI over negative thirty three percent.

750
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: He's also five and thirteen against the spread as a

751
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: favorite of a touchdown plus. He's lost outright as a

752
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: touchdown plus favorite in each of the past four seasons

753
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 2: against the team under five hundred. His team's perennially come

754
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: out flat in these spots. He's only twenty three and

755
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 2: eighteen on the money line as a road favorite against

756
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: sub five hundred teams, worst among ninety nine coaches. I mean,

757
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 2: he goes on and on and on. Plus Mason Rudolph

758
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 2: by some metrics, I mean, by my own eyes, has

759
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 2: been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.

760
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 4: He shouldn't even be playing in this game. He should

761
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 4: be suspended too.

762
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 3: I don't know how he got off without a suspension

763
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 3: for starting the incident on Thursday night last week with

764
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: Miles Garrett.

765
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad because now I get the fad of

766
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 2: the Steelers and I think he's worse for them. Plus

767
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: you have Shuster out, you have potentially Johnson out, Connor

768
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 2: is out. I mean it's just bad pounds. He is out,

769
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 2: as most of you know. But they have no weapons.

770
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 2: I mean it's going to be so they're not really

771
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: going to exploit a bad Bengals defense. The Bengals front

772
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 2: is finally healthy. It played pretty well against the Raiders

773
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: last week. Their defensive line, their offense is still horrendous.

774
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong with Ryan Finley is horrendous too.

775
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: He's just a plug to get Joe Burrow. The Bengals,

776
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 2: by the way, with the first team to be eliminated

777
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 2: this early from the playoffs since I think two thousand

778
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 2: and two, so, but just catching seven points here, it's

779
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 2: a divisional game, the team still hasn't won. It's just

780
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: mainly I don't buy the Steelers, who have been just

781
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 2: benefiting so much from turnovers too. And give me the

782
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,839
Speaker 2: seven at home with the Bengals.

783
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm wish you. This is going to be an

784
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 4: ugly game.

785
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,439
Speaker 3: Looking for thirteen catches from from Jaylen Samuel for twenty

786
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 3: one yards or yeah.

787
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,080
Speaker 2: They will throw to him at target him maybe twenty times.

788
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 3: Steelers are just decimated by injuries. So this game probably

789
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,880
Speaker 3: a lot closer than people think. And that does it

790
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 3: for our Sunday six packs. Stuck has the Broncos plus

791
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 3: four against the Bills, the Cowboys plus six and a

792
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 3: half against the Patriots, and the Cincinnati Bengals plus seven

793
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 3: against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have the Niners as a

794
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: three point favorite against the Packers, Jets plus three against Oakland,

795
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: and Giants plus six against the Chicago Bears.

796
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 5: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

797
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 5: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast network.

798
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 5: Locked On has a daily podcast on your favorite team.

799
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

800
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 4: You are locked onwn of the Dallas matterick.

801
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,439
Speaker 2: Welkome everybody, So the Locked On Lakers podcast Let's Go.

802
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

803
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

804
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

805
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 5: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

806
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 3: Now let's jump into our favorite over under of the week.

807
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, I started the six, so aren't you.

808
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: We just right into our totals, which we've been We've

809
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 3: been killing with these totes. By the way, we haven't

810
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: missed many of these. That's that's one thing that I'm

811
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 3: pretty proud of.

812
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 2: So he got this week. Yeah, by the way, with that,

813
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: with that Bengals pick, you might want to split it

814
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 2: first half too if you are betting it, because if

815
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 2: the if, for whatever reason, the Steelers get up like

816
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 2: fourteen the first half, Ryan Finley's not coming back against

817
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: that defensive line and so they got to keep it

818
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: close in the first half. I like the few totals

819
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 2: seriously following the action. Apple'll see me play eventually play

820
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 2: a few totals here this week, But one of my

821
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: favorites is Atlanta Tampa over fifty one. Was that fifty

822
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: four came down, it's trust me, it's going to go

823
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,720
Speaker 2: back up. Atlanta defense been playing better last two weeks.

824
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 2: They still aren't good. There's you know, it was a

825
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,959
Speaker 2: huge Kyle Allen regression in just a weird penalty field

826
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 2: game against the Saints. Rahee Morris did start taking over

827
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 2: play calling. They'd be better in that aspect. Their front

828
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 2: has been playing better, and you know their their front

829
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: is played. Their defensive front has been a strength all

830
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,919
Speaker 2: year with McKinley, Grady Jarrett, Adrian Claiborne. But by the way,

831
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 2: Claiborne McKinley, they didn't practice today, which isn't great. But

832
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 2: they're pretty good at stopping the run, and so are

833
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 2: the Bucks. That's what both of these teams do. But

834
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 2: I don't trust either secondary. So what's going to be

835
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 2: happening on Sunday. Both of these quarterbacks are going to

836
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: be slinging it around. This ball is gonna be in

837
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: the air the whole game. Neither team has corners that

838
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 2: I think can cover either of the other team's elite

839
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 2: pair of receivers.

840
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 4: You know, you've.

841
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 2: Ridley and Julio on one side, you have Godwin and

842
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 2: Evan's on the other. Jamis will give the Falcons too.

843
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 2: And by the way, when I bet the Bucks last week,

844
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,760
Speaker 2: I can't even blink. Two of the picks were complete

845
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: fluke because I would have bet the Bucks again O J.

846
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 2: Howard one but is back. I mean the other one

847
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: Evans stopped on a route and there was just confusion.

848
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 2: But you know, he'll probably give the Falcons seven here.

849
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 2: But both of these teams are gonna be able to

850
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 2: throw it at will, and I don't think either one

851
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 2: of them are gonna be able to run it. And

852
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 2: it just means that the clock is not going to

853
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 2: be going fast the ball. There's gonna be a ton

854
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 2: of explosive plays over fifty one. Both of these teams

855
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 2: should get the third.

856
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know it's I think, especially if if the

857
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 3: Falcons are missing anybody. I do think they played better,

858
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 3: So at first that was kind of got This could

859
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: be a trap. Ree Morris moving over from wide receiver

860
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 3: coach to d backs coach. But I do think that

861
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 3: there's just going to be so much pass and going

862
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 3: on that it's gonna be hard for it not.

863
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 4: To hit the total, even if the Falcon has just

864
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 4: put up a big number on the Bucks, who we know.

865
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: Plus both these teams are out of it, so it's

866
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,720
Speaker 2: like they're not even who cares, Let's just need the numbers.

867
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 3: Like Julio is kind of you know, he's been he's

868
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: been good, but he hasn't had those like monster games

869
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: as much.

870
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think they just kind of want to

871
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 4: get their numbers.

872
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,799
Speaker 3: Austin Hooper out, so yeah, they can kind of pad

873
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 3: Ridley and Julio and the Bucks on the other side,

874
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, they're gonna they're going to throw the

875
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 3: football as well. For me, I'm going, you know, as

876
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 3: I usually do here with an under and under forty

877
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 3: one and a half in the Detroit at Washington game

878
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: at first, you know, kind of you know, doing it

879
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 3: from a fantasy perspective, we were all excited about Jeff.

880
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 4: Driscoll this week.

881
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 3: Oh you know, Jeff Driscoll averaging twenty three DraftKings points

882
00:39:58,920 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: going against his bad Redskins.

883
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 4: But then I sat back and I thought.

884
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 3: About it, and you know, are we are we really

885
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 3: betting on it over with Jeff Driscoll versus Dwayne Haskins.

886
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 4: Absolutely not. You know, this is an outdoor game.

887
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 3: I think the Redskins want to run the ball now

888
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 3: that they have Darius guys, they have Adrian Peterson. Lions

889
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 3: have been a poor run defense, and on the other side,

890
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 3: the lines have shown they want to have that power

891
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 3: run element. I mean they've cycled through cj Anders and

892
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 3: Tray Carson, who was it Paul Perkins. Now they have

893
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 3: Bo Scarborough you know, out here getting fourteen carries and

894
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 3: they're going to continue to feature that. And you have

895
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 3: Jeff Driscoll at quarterbacks, so you're going to have to

896
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 3: I think two teams that don't want to throw the

897
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 3: ball around the yard unless they have to in this game,

898
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 3: and you know outdoor situation.

899
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 4: Could see some wind right now.

900
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 3: The forecast is just above ten, which when it starts

901
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 3: to hit ten unders hit out a fifty six percent rate.

902
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 3: But regardless of the weather or not, I just think

903
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 3: two bad quarterbacks, even though the defenses on the other

904
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,959
Speaker 3: side haven't been great either, don't necessarily think the pass

905
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 3: games are equipped to really take advantage of it as

906
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 3: much as these coaches are going to kind of play

907
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 3: it a little close to the vest, try to be efficient,

908
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 3: try to use their run games as much as they

909
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 3: can to support their quarterbacks.

910
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 4: So going with the under here.

911
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 2: Don't hate it, and I actually like the Skins and

912
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: over a field goal driscoll, I think the Skins might

913
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 2: have there have no running game to speak of, and

914
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 2: it's duriscal. I think the Redskins might have the better

915
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,919
Speaker 2: overall defense and catching three and a half at home.

916
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:29,959
Speaker 2: It's not pretty, but I can't argue with you under there.

917
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 3: All right, So Stuck, you have Bucks Falcons over fifty

918
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 3: one and I have lines Redskins under forty one and

919
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 3: a half.

920
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 4: Let's get into our weekly teaser segment.

921
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers all right.

922
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,760
Speaker 3: So for those unfamiliar, this is a standard six point

923
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 3: two team teaser, which means you get six extra points

924
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: for each team to widen the spread in exchange for

925
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: a slightly reduced payouts. And Stuck usually puts out some

926
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 3: great content on teasers, you know, during the weeks, so

927
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,720
Speaker 3: be sure to check that out on Action Network dot

928
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: Com stuck. I believe we both at our teaser last week.

929
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 3: Who you got in this one?

930
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: I am going with the Jets, as I already talked about,

931
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 2: and give me the Packers plus nine crossing you know

932
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: it's at three right now, but crossing four and seven

933
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 2: and if they're down ten or fourteen to late, you

934
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 2: know you Aaron Rodgers on your side against I'm more

935
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 2: of a pre that defense, which you have to love.

936
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's funny because every week we seem to

937
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 3: have at least one of the same teaser picks. There's

938
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 3: always so many you should really be looking at because again,

939
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 3: you want to try to get through those those key

940
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 3: numbers at three, four and the six if possible. So

941
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 3: also going with the Jets for those same reasons and

942
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 3: throwing in.

943
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 4: The Seattle Seahawks.

944
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 3: The Seattle Seahoks a team I normally probably would actually

945
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 3: like just as one and a half points underdogs, but

946
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 3: they are going across the country. This feels like a

947
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,320
Speaker 3: little bit of a trap. I think that the Eagles

948
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 3: defense is being underrated. I think they're playing a lot

949
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 3: better than people think. Seahawks will see about the status

950
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 3: of Tyro Lockett so just not prepared to fully dive in.

951
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 3: But do I think that another team that I think

952
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,439
Speaker 3: can keep it close at the end if they're down

953
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 3: two scores or something like that.

954
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 4: I think they can drive.

955
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: Down the field with Russell Wilson, and he is sixteen

956
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 3: six and two in his career against the spread, seventy

957
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 3: three percent cover rate as they rode underdog. So with

958
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 3: six extra points going through that those key numbers of

959
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 3: six and seven, especially feel good about the Seattle Seahawks

960
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 3: being able to pay off on the other side of

961
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 3: that tease.

962
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 2: I may be on the Eagles here, especially if the

963
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 2: line keeps coming down. I mean the Seahawks. We talk

964
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 2: about the teams that are lucky. Yeah, they're one of them.

965
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 2: But they have two overtime wins. The rest of the

966
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 2: NFL combined has two. They're eight and two with a

967
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 2: net points of plus twelve at the end of regulation.

968
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 2: They've outscored their opponents with eight wins, by a total

969
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 2: of twelve in regulation and by nine in overtimes. Seven

970
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 2: of their eight wins came by one possession against the

971
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 2: Rams at home on a missfield goal, the Bengals by

972
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 2: one when they were dominated at home against the Bucks

973
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,919
Speaker 2: in overtime at Falcons with Matt Schapp at pitt after

974
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 2: Ben got hurt at Cleveland with a ton of Flukes

975
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: and the San fran and overtime their first could win.

976
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 2: Eagles were four and six last year they stole made

977
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Look the Hawks struggle to cover tight ends.

978
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 2: I know the Eagles have no receivers left, but I

979
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 2: think the tight ends can have a big day down

980
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 2: the seam, and the Eagles defensive line should dominate this

981
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage. Fletcher Cocks might eat Joey Hunt for

982
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 2: lunch and then spit them out and eat them again.

983
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 2: Hawks special teams stink too, so I think the Eagles

984
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 2: might get this done. But yeah, I can't hate hate

985
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 2: the tease through three and seven against a team that's

986
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 2: offense is just dreadful to watch.

987
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 3: And just please, like, be careful out there stuff because

988
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 3: it sounds to me, sounds to me like you're going

989
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,959
Speaker 3: to bet against the Patriots and Seahawks in the same week,

990
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 3: which is ballsy, But just be careful out there because

991
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 3: we know how these.

992
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 4: Things can go. They're just inexplicably wrong.

993
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: But yeah, you know I think that, Yeah, I'm not

994
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 3: as confident in the Seahawks for all those same reasons

995
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 3: as I usually would be in this kind of spot

996
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 3: for us, which is why I going with the tees here.

997
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 4: Let's get into our underdog money line.

998
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

999
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1000
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 4: All right.

1001
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: So this segment is where we each pick an underdog

1002
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 3: on the money line. We also kind of combine it

1003
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 3: into a PARWAYE see if that hits.

1004
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 4: We've hit a few this year.

1005
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: Stuck, Why don't you start us off again? Who are

1006
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 3: you going with on the money line in week number twelve?

1007
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 2: Let's make it interesting. Give me the Bengals. I don't

1008
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 2: think they're gonna go winless. This is where they would

1009
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 2: get the win. I guess Mason Rudolf and a depleted

1010
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 2: Steelers team in a fade Tomlin spot. So give me

1011
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:37,839
Speaker 2: the Bengals. Get to get the first win this week

1012
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 2: and that's it.

1013
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 4: So the last win of the year, they have this one,

1014
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 4: and they have that.

1015
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 3: They have that Week sixteen Super Bowl matchup with Miami

1016
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 3: Dolphins as well, so.

1017
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 4: Maybe one of them, maybe they get the two. Who knows.

1018
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 4: But it's funny because yeah, I don't. I don't hate

1019
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: that pick at all.

1020
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 3: I think there's a few teams you're looking at at

1021
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 3: the money line on the money line this week. The

1022
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 3: Jets obviously one of them, but I think you just

1023
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 3: take the points there, so, you know, kind of out

1024
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 3: of consideration. For me, I think the Jaguars are a

1025
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 3: team that you can make a case for, but I

1026
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 3: don't like how they match up to the Titans, so.

1027
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,399
Speaker 4: I am going with and I bet against them.

1028
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 3: Last week for the exact reason if they haven't got

1029
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 3: to win with this quarterback. But going with the Washington Redskins, Yeah,

1030
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 3: I think this is a spot where they can get

1031
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 3: Dwayne Haskins his first win at home against the bad defense,

1032
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 3: starting with the offense starting its backup quarterback. Give me

1033
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 3: the Redskins on the money line plus one sixty. You

1034
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 3: have the Bengals plus two fifty. It would actually be

1035
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 3: an eight to one payout if the parway hit, so

1036
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 3: you'd win nine hundred and ten bucks on a one

1037
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 3: hundred dollar bet.

1038
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 4: So this should be an interesting partway this week.

1039
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 3: Two teams with a combined one win that we are

1040
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 3: betting on to go to and O in week number twelve, but.

1041
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 4: It is the NFL.

1042
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 3: So let's get in to the best of the rest,

1043
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 3: which are all the games that we haven't covered in

1044
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 3: any other segment. We'll start off with the Miami Dolphins

1045
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 3: going to Cleeve win Cleveland ten and a half point favorite,

1046
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 3: sixty two percent of the bets, sixty three percent of

1047
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,240
Speaker 3: the money on Miami the total forty four and a half,

1048
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 3: sixty nine percent of the tickets, eighty three percent of

1049
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 3: the dollars are on the over.

1050
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 4: In this one stuck any weans.

1051
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,320
Speaker 2: I like the Browns here. Look, I faded the Dolphins

1052
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 2: last week against the Bill, so I'm not a fan

1053
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 2: of thought said the line was crazy, it's not seven.

1054
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:22,240
Speaker 2: I think this line is. It's crazy, it's not fourteen.

1055
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 2: I know Miles Garrett won't be there to help hurt

1056
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 2: the pass rush, but and I know the Browns are

1057
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 2: a double digit favorite. It's only the second time in the

1058
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 2: last twenty five years the Brown's been a double digit

1059
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 2: favor The first was in two thousand and seven. It's

1060
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers actually covered that game as eleven

1061
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:34,760
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite.

1062
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 4: Someone by thirteen was that the singletary era forty nine.

1063
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 2: Ers I think so. But look, this Dolphins seems terrible.

1064
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 2: I know if Fitzpatrick is trying, but they have no

1065
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 2: one left. They have no running game whatsoever.

1066
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 4: Canine carries nine yards? Special it is.

1067
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 2: They're averaging three yards per carry. You know the last

1068
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,959
Speaker 2: time a team averaged fewer than three yards per carrying

1069
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 2: a season. You got to go back to nineteen ninety

1070
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 2: four Patriots who made the playoffs and lost to the.

1071
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:05,280
Speaker 3: Browns in the wild Bills Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, Ben Bledsoe,

1072
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 3: yeah yeah, and Bledsoe.

1073
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 2: Marion Butts was there starting running back, and you need

1074
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 2: to know about that. All they did was throw it

1075
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 2: to Ben Coates. But they went to the playoffs and

1076
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 2: lost to the Browns in nineteen ninty four. That's the

1077
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 2: last time the Browns and Vinty testaverity. Last onime, the

1078
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,240
Speaker 2: Browns won a playoff game to pull at full circle

1079
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 2: the Browns. You know, look, Odell Beckham's at a horrible year,

1080
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield's had a horrible year. Nick Needham has looked

1081
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 2: good at times in Rayti well, but this is an

1082
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:31,399
Speaker 2: undrafted kid from UTEP who got abused by John Brown.

1083
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 2: This is a big breakout game for the Browns wide

1084
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 2: receivers and Baker Mayfield specifically Odell Beckham. You know he's

1085
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 2: been He got short of the end zone by like

1086
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 2: a yard last week. I think he gets in a

1087
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 2: couple of times here. The Browns defense, you can run

1088
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: on them. Well, the Dolphins can't run. Just throw that

1089
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: out the window. And their secondary is actually pretty good.

1090
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 2: Greedy and Ward two of my top thirty corners in

1091
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 2: the NFL. Fitzpatrick will get his yards, but Brown's win

1092
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:58,720
Speaker 2: this by two touchdowns plus.

1093
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe fine receiver Sharan Higgins, you know, with Colway

1094
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 3: cut because he's been a guy that's been underperforming. So yeah,

1095
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,240
Speaker 3: I think the Dolphins he's a free My guy Patrick

1096
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,439
Speaker 3: Laird cut six passes last week. Give him the shot

1097
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 3: in the run game, guys. Next up, we have Carolina

1098
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:15,760
Speaker 3: at New Orleans. The dreaded nine and a half point

1099
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 3: spread for the Saints. They are favored fifty three percent

1100
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 3: of the bets, only forty seven percent of the money

1101
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,320
Speaker 3: though he's on New Orleans. The total at forty seven

1102
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 3: sixty four percent of the bets, eighty two percent of

1103
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 3: the dollars wagered coming in on the under here, and

1104
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 3: you know this is one where these nine and a

1105
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 3: half nine to ten point spreads the underdog covers at

1106
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 3: an over and eighty percent clip.

1107
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 4: Do the Panthers bounce back in this spot? Stuff?

1108
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 2: No, no part of the Panthers rescue here. Look, I

1109
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 2: told John was on the Falcons. All about the Falcons

1110
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 2: my top deck last week. I drove the Kyle Allen

1111
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 2: bus for the first four weeks and then I told

1112
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 2: everyone to get off of it.

1113
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 4: It's it's the short bus now.

1114
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and yeah, it's not working, and he is not

1115
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:06,320
Speaker 2: the solution at quarterback. And you know the Saints defense,

1116
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 2: there are a lot of injuries on the Saints to

1117
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 2: keep an eye on. So just keep on with Lattimore

1118
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 2: and and you know there's a couple other guys.

1119
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 3: That have Cathaga and teams, but I like a lot

1120
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 3: of that came with Teddy. But so it's it's kind

1121
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 3: of tough to say.

1122
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:20,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, but I trust the Saints defense and

1123
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 2: I trust them. I think they're gonna be able to

1124
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 2: run the ball, which you can against Carolina, but this

1125
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 2: is you'll have Kyle Allen make a few mistakes. You

1126
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 2: saw some of that regression start last week and the

1127
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:33,760
Speaker 2: pass offense with Kyle on at the helm has gone

1128
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 2: down the toilet. The line's about right, But I don't

1129
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,919
Speaker 2: see the Panthers threatening the Saints. This is a game

1130
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 2: I probably will stay away from betting wise.

1131
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it could be one of those divisional unders. To

1132
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 3: keep an eye on weight in the year too. Think

1133
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 3: you know, we all look at the Saints at home

1134
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 3: and think of a lot of points. But could be

1135
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 3: a sneaky under with the Saints just kind of winning

1136
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 3: in a blowout fashion.

1137
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 4: Though I don't really want to.

1138
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:57,879
Speaker 3: Bet them either, just given you know that that gives

1139
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 3: me pause with that, with with those numbers, about those

1140
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:02,399
Speaker 3: nine to ten points spread, So probably a stay away

1141
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 3: from me.

1142
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:03,799
Speaker 4: Last one.

1143
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 3: We kind of talked about this one a bit, but

1144
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 3: Jaggs at the Tennessee Titans. Titans three point favorite, sixty

1145
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 3: eight percent of the tickets, sixty three percent of the

1146
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 3: dollars total at forty one and a half, fifty nine

1147
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 3: percent of the tickets, eighty four percent of the money

1148
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 3: on the over in Jags Titans. Jags said they want

1149
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 3: to run the ball more, get running four nette more involved.

1150
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:26,760
Speaker 4: Not Probably not a good idea.

1151
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 3: Against the Titans. One of the better run defenses in

1152
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 3: the league. And I think I'll just point out that

1153
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:32,880
Speaker 3: one of the things you worry about with the Jags

1154
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 3: in their offense, specifically for net, is that Nick Foles

1155
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 3: is back. He's predominantly a shotgun quarterback. They're going to

1156
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 3: play most of their snaps out of the shotgun with Foles.

1157
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 3: That's just how he plays RPOs and all that stuff.

1158
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 3: First career running four nett four point two yards per

1159
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 3: carry in double digit yards per catch under center, when

1160
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 3: when he's in the shotgun three point five yards to

1161
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 3: carry seven point one yard to catch.

1162
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 4: So he's just a lot easier to defend.

1163
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 3: Not his adept at running out of the shotgun, which

1164
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 3: hurts because Nifo's back.

1165
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 2: Yep. I disagree with that approach as well. And the

1166
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 2: Jags defense, it's just I can't figure it out. It's

1167
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 2: just underwhelming to me. Their linebacking play has been so bad.

1168
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 2: I think the Titans will be able to run the ball.

1169
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,439
Speaker 2: The Jags defense I think thirtieth and run defense dev

1170
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 2: I mean, the run defense has been horrible. You saw

1171
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,879
Speaker 2: that last week when the Colts ran all over them. Yeah,

1172
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:24,720
Speaker 2: So I think that the Titans will have some success

1173
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 2: running the ball, and I think that they'll dominate the

1174
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, you know,

1175
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 2: especially if they're trying to run on that run defense,

1176
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to work. And I love

1177
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 2: that Titans front seven. And you know with Jeffrey Simmons,

1178
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,720
Speaker 2: who's a stud who missed, you know, the good portion

1179
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,839
Speaker 2: of the year, rookie from Mississippi State to start the year,

1180
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,920
Speaker 2: he's a stud in there with Daikwon Jones, I mean,

1181
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: I just love that front seven, and so I think

1182
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 2: that they're going to dominate the line of scrimmage on

1183
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 2: both ends. Don't forget about Cameron Wake and Lander and

1184
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 2: the outside on the edge. I like that front seven.

1185
00:52:57,760 --> 00:52:58,879
Speaker 2: I think that's the difference in the game.

1186
00:52:59,280 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 4: All right.

1187
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 3: Now, time for our final segment, our Survivor Pool Pick

1188
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 3: of the week.

1189
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 2: One pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1190
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 3: Each week we just look for our top Survivor pick

1191
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 3: for anybody that's still alive in their pools. We had

1192
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 3: a little contest going and the Colts I believe were

1193
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 3: just the death of you a couple of times.

1194
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 4: So pick Oakland.

1195
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 3: Last week it was that bear. We worked out this week,

1196
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Cleveland Browns team I can't see

1197
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 3: using in any other spot than against the Miami Dolphins,

1198
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 3: and you kind of hit on it. I think this

1199
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:40,720
Speaker 3: line is probably underrating the Browns a bit in this spot.

1200
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,800
Speaker 3: So biggest favorite on the board, give me the Browns

1201
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 3: and survivor. If you couldn't pick the Browns stuck, who

1202
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:48,720
Speaker 3: would you be looking to this week?

1203
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:51,320
Speaker 2: You gotta go Browns here, But if you can't, I

1204
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,800
Speaker 2: would look maybe if you haven't used the Saints, although

1205
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 2: you probably have before, but other than that, it's a

1206
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 2: really tough week. So hopefully you can use either of

1207
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 2: the Browns or the Saints.

1208
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 3: And somehow I've gotten through these twelve weeks and I

1209
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 3: haven't used the Saints, and I looked at the schedule

1210
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 3: and I don't know if I will be using them.

1211
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 3: I just don't didn't want to use them in a

1212
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 3: divisional game. You know, we saw kind of they laid

1213
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 3: an egg against the Falcon so but you know, would

1214
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 3: pick them if I didn't have the brown still available?

1215
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 3: All right, So that does it for another edition of

1216
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast NFL Betting Preview, be sure to

1217
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 3: stay tuned to the channel all week.

1218
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 4: Stuck and Colin.

1219
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 3: Wilson will be back with a couple of college football

1220
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 3: episodes Friday Monday, and Friedman Corner and I will be

1221
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 3: back with the Fantasy Flex and of course Stuck and

1222
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 3: I doing the NFL breaks. Actually, I think we'll have

1223
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 3: these pods a little earlier because next week to Thanksgiving, so.

1224
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 4: So look out for all those a little earlier in

1225
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:47,239
Speaker 4: the week than you usually used to, so that should

1226
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:48,320
Speaker 4: be fun again.

1227
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 3: Be shorted down with the Action Network app for real

1228
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 3: time odds, bet tracking, in game, live win probabilities and.

1229
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:56,720
Speaker 4: All that good stuff.

1230
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 3: You can fall stuck on the app at Stucky.

1231
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:01,240
Speaker 4: Two and you can follow me at Chris Raybond.

1232
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,839
Speaker 3: Our handles are the same on Twitter, so be sure

1233
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 3: to follow us there.

1234
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 4: Good luck this week.

1235
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 2: Let's get this money go packed up. We're finished talking