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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: Here we go there throwing up job.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting up to cash.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 4: That is the ultimate kabanity.

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Speaker 2: You want to pack.

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Speaker 3: And we are coming away.

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Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 4: your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your NFL Week

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Speaker 4: three betting preview today. Of course, we're gonna build our

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Speaker 4: six pack of best bets with the help of my

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Speaker 4: co hosts. The Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, stucky stuff.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? How is your week?

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Speaker 5: Oh, it's up, brother, small winning week, but it was

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Speaker 5: very disappointing because we two is usually my best week usually,

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Speaker 5: so I was hoping to just have a monster week

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Speaker 5: and did not. Titans once again for the six pack

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Speaker 5: and my card. Two weeks in a row were the

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Speaker 5: swing game for me. And I've never had bigger deja

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Speaker 5: vous in my life. I mean it was the same

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Speaker 5: final score. They were covering the entire game. They had

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Speaker 5: a blocked punt. Will Levis made a brain dead decision

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Speaker 5: again inside the ten. Then they end the game inside

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Speaker 5: the ten and don't score. I mean, absolute pain two

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Speaker 5: weeks in a row with the same exact final score.

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Speaker 5: But that'll happen. But as always, who cares about last week?

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Speaker 5: It's on to this week. Although I will note scoring

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Speaker 5: way down. A lot of that has to do with

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Speaker 5: red zone production. There's a lot of variants there, and

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Speaker 5: I go back to last week. I've never seen more

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Speaker 5: turnovers inside the ten in a week in my life.

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Speaker 5: So many teams settling for field goals turning it over.

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Speaker 5: So you might see scoring pick back up as red

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Speaker 5: zone touchdown production improves, as you would expect that to

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Speaker 5: normalize over the course of the season. But looking forward

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Speaker 5: to getting into the Spek's car.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll start with Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 4: We got the Patriots going to East Rutherford to visit

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Speaker 4: the Jets, kind of one of these ugly Thursday night

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Speaker 4: football games. Total is thirty what is it, thirty eight

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Speaker 4: and a half and the Jets are favored by six

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Speaker 4: down a five and a half, No six, it's up

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Speaker 4: to six and a half at a couple of spots.

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Speaker 4: But what do you make of this one? You know,

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Speaker 4: the Jets you mentioned, kind of hurt you with the Titans,

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Speaker 4: but the Titans had a lot of shots to cover

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Speaker 4: in that spot, where as you think about the Jets

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Speaker 4: lift and you know, the Patriots have been playing somewhat

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Speaker 4: surprisingly decently.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Jets got out played. I think.

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Speaker 5: I mean they were out gained the lower yards per

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Speaker 5: play set up, you know, benefited from Titan's mistakes, and

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Speaker 5: then scored a touchdown late on a broken run, unfortunately

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Speaker 5: for me and us. But it's the run defense is

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Speaker 5: the defensive line is not the same, and now you

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Speaker 5: might be down CJ.

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Speaker 3: Moseley.

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Speaker 5: You lost Jermaine Johnson, Reddick is still holding out. He

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Speaker 5: lost Toff and Franklin Myers from last year's team, So

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Speaker 5: that front seven is not the same. So can the Patriots?

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Speaker 5: What are the Patriots one of these?

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Speaker 3: They're not.

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Speaker 5: They don't throw the ball deep at all, just like

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Speaker 5: short easy passes, a lot of them to Hunter Henry

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Speaker 5: and then feeding Stevenson. Can they just do that and

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Speaker 5: stay in this game? You know, their offensive line has

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Speaker 5: a lot of question Marks. I think every single offensive

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Speaker 5: lineman is on the injury report. So will their offensive

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Speaker 5: line be healthy, I don't know. I don't know who's

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Speaker 5: going to be in, who's going.

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Speaker 3: To be out.

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Speaker 5: The depth there is very questionable. If their offensive line

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Speaker 5: is healthy, there's a path to success for them to

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Speaker 5: just run it control the clock. This game should be

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Speaker 5: slow because the Patriots play, you know, like a service

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Speaker 5: again team. They just run the ball, door, passes, perset,

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Speaker 5: doesn't turn it over. Then you have Rogers. The Jets

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Speaker 5: are extremely slow to You'll see the play clock almost

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Speaker 5: hit one frequently throughout the game, and Rogers never turns

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Speaker 5: it over either. So the offensive line injuries give me

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Speaker 5: a little bit of pause here backing the Patriots against

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Speaker 5: a beat up and just not as dominant Jets defensive

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Speaker 5: front as we saw last season. On the other side

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Speaker 5: of the wall, you know, the Patriots defense has been

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Speaker 5: pretty good and you have you know, Christian Gonzalez, who

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Speaker 5: can theoretically stick on Garrett Wilson. I mean, if you

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Speaker 5: look at what Gonzalez is done through two weeks, locked

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Speaker 5: up Chase week one, locked up Metcalf. Last week, Metcalf

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Speaker 5: did all of his damage when Gonzalez wasn't on him.

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Speaker 5: Now the wild card here is Mike Williams. When is

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Speaker 5: he going to be fully ramped up and what can

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Speaker 5: he provide? Has that true number two option? You saw

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Speaker 5: his snap count go up last week. So this game

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Speaker 5: is really hard for me to handicap because just situationally,

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Speaker 5: it's a brutal spot for both teams. Number one Patriots

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Speaker 5: coming off of an overtime game now hitting the road

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Speaker 5: on a short week, playing on Thursday night. Historically, teams

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Speaker 5: off of an overtime game on a short week, you're

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Speaker 5: talking sub twenty five against the spread. Also, first time

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Speaker 5: head coaches in their first Thursday night game, right, it's

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Speaker 5: a different prep. Unique have not fared well historically, been

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Speaker 5: pretty bad against the spread. But the Jets, like I

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Speaker 5: mentioned some of those injuries on the defensive end, they're

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Speaker 5: playing their third game in eleven days or ten days.

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Speaker 5: They start off the season on Monday night, Sunday and

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Speaker 5: then Thursday. That's brutal early in the season. It doesn't

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Speaker 5: happen often. I think when I went back and checked

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Speaker 5: on Action Labs, it's teams in that scenario over the

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Speaker 5: past twenty five years or like three and seven against

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Speaker 5: the spread, so it's not really a meaningful sample size,

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Speaker 5: but I mean, just think about it. You went from

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Speaker 5: San fran to Tennessee now back home to New York

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Speaker 5: with three games in ten days early in the season.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, this is a very difficult game for me

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Speaker 5: to hand to get my numbers. Would lean Jets here

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Speaker 5: and the under a bit, but just situationally, it's very

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Speaker 5: tough for both teams, so this might be a stay away.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I actually had a rare Thursday Night bet last week,

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Speaker 4: ended up getting lucky with the two injury for that under.

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Speaker 4: But this one's tough because the Patriots, I don't really

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Speaker 4: know what to do with them. I've upgraded them a

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Speaker 4: little bit because they're better than I thought they were.

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Speaker 4: But at the same time, like you mentioned, that offensive line,

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Speaker 4: it's limiting them and I think it's gonna it's it's

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Speaker 4: gonna kind of roost at some point. But then you

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Speaker 4: look at this Jet team in there, just not getting

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Speaker 4: the same kind of pass rush.

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Speaker 3: And one last thing I'll mentioned, I cooked up the

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Speaker 3: Pats and the under.

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Speaker 5: Bryce Berenger got to get my early special teams mentioned

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Speaker 5: he's one of the best plunders in the league already.

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Speaker 5: He was a weapon last week, almost won that game

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Speaker 5: for them against Seattle. You flip the field, note that

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Speaker 5: in the back of your head, Patriots might have a

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Speaker 5: very special plumber helps him shorten the game.

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Speaker 4: All right, Well, that's going to do for our Thursday

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Speaker 4: night break down. Definitely, our guy Kerner will be on

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Speaker 4: a prop and he went fourteen to oh last week.

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Speaker 4: So shout out to to our guy Curda. That's just

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Speaker 4: absolutely ridiculous. And so if you're looking for his stuff,

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Speaker 4: and you know Nick Giffen stuff more ex picks and

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Speaker 4: you just want to connect with your fellow Gamber's over

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Speaker 4: here during the games, you can join the Action Network

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Speaker 4: Discord channel. It's free, and Kerner's posted a lot on air,

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Speaker 4: and I'm sure he's going to be even more active

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Speaker 4: going forward, So be sure to check that out the

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Speaker 4: free Action Network Discord channel and we'll drop the link

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Speaker 4: in the episode description. NFL Week three six pack, Let's

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Speaker 4: do it.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: I'm up seven to five. You are up first. Where

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Speaker 4: you're going?

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Speaker 6: All right?

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Speaker 5: For my first pick of the week three Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 5: I am going with the Tennessee Titans minus two against

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Speaker 5: the Green Bay Packers definite Titans the first two weeks

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Speaker 5: and lost. Yes, I'm going back to the well, they

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Speaker 5: should have covered both games, they should have won both games.

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Speaker 5: They should be two and oh. I've been really impressed

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Speaker 5: with the defense that I think is better schemed and

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Speaker 5: just way more talented than last year.

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Speaker 3: Across the board. I and look, if you.

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Speaker 5: Just want some trends right off the bat, backing OH

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Speaker 5: and two teams historically against non oh and two teams

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Speaker 5: in Week three has been extremely profitable going back twenty

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Speaker 5: five years. You're talking about sixty percent against the spread.

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Speaker 5: You know, over the past ten years OH and two

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Speaker 5: teams against non oh and two teams sixty five percent

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Speaker 5: against the spread, covering by about a field goal per game,

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Speaker 5: winless favorites against teams with at least one win sixty

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Speaker 5: five percent, winless home favorites against teams with at least

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Speaker 5: one win seventy one percent against the spread. So a

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Speaker 5: lot of trends back this up to you know, by low,

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Speaker 5: don't overreact to the Titan start, and honestly, they should

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Speaker 5: be two and oh if they just knew how to

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Speaker 5: punt the ball, they'd be two and oh most slightly

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Speaker 5: yet alone, you know, Will Levis making just asinine game

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Speaker 5: changing throws, pitches, whatever you want to call it. Now

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Speaker 5: the market has come down on this a bit because

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Speaker 5: Jordan Love practice today. Now, I could be way off

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Speaker 5: and Jordan Love plays. Obviously that wouldn't be ideal. I

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Speaker 5: still wouldn't hate the Titans if you're lowing laying a

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Speaker 5: small price here, But I don't think Love plays. You know,

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Speaker 5: he practiced today. He still had, you know, a sleeve

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Speaker 5: on his knee. And I don't you just paid him

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Speaker 5: all that money. You already stole a win with Malik Willis.

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Speaker 5: You have the Vikings in a very important divisional game

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Speaker 5: up next. Packers historically conservative. Historically they've been conservative with injuries,

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Speaker 5: so I don't think they rushed Love back here, you know.

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Speaker 5: And if he does play, I don't think he'll certainly

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Speaker 5: be at one hundred percent.

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Speaker 3: But I think he doesn't play. I could be wrong.

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Speaker 5: And in the past, when I've been right about backups

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Speaker 5: playing and I've been on the other side in.

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Speaker 3: This show never works out. So maybe Love plays in

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Speaker 3: the Titans win.

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Speaker 5: I don't know, but I don't think he plays in

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Speaker 5: I think, like I said last week, this is like

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Speaker 5: a five to six point down grade. And Milik Wills

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Speaker 5: got the win for me last week, but I mentioned

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Speaker 5: it first start for backup quarterback, everyone else steps up

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Speaker 5: usually have a unique game plan. And they were going

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Speaker 5: up against the Colts defense. That is the defense that

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Speaker 5: you want to face. And it helps to be at

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Speaker 5: home when you're a quarterback of the caliber and Milik

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Speaker 5: Wills sayd and ask him to do much. They just

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Speaker 5: they were basically a service gime. I think they ran

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Speaker 5: at fifty plus times in the game, and the Colts,

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Speaker 5: true to form, Gus Bradley didn't adjust, and I think

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Speaker 5: they ran for two hundred and thirty seven yards in

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Speaker 5: the first half and in the second half Gus Bradley

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Speaker 5: finally justin brought up another defensive lineman up there and

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Speaker 5: they were playing five line and the Packers couldn't run anymore. Well,

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Speaker 5: the Titans saw what the Packers want to do. The

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Speaker 5: Titans also know Malik Willis that there's a reason they

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Speaker 5: cut him, and they know what type of player is.

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Speaker 5: But they're going to load the box here and unlike

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Speaker 5: the Colts, and they have a much more complex, aggressive

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Speaker 5: defense than what Willis saw last week with Indianapolis. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I don't see the Packers offense doing much here. I

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Speaker 5: think the desperate Titans team gets a home win. And

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Speaker 5: you speaking of aggression, I mean, maybe they don't just

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Speaker 5: have killer turnovers and punts blocked every single game. But

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Speaker 5: I like this defense. I like the matchup against Willis,

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Speaker 5: and I think the Titans get it done at home.

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Speaker 5: What are your thoughts here? Do you think Love has

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Speaker 5: a shot to play?

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Speaker 4: Maybe it's some gamesmanship. I mean they've came out and

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Speaker 4: ran the ball fifty times last week. We believe Willis

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Speaker 4: they pull out all the stops if they have to,

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Speaker 4: So I think it's more games have been ship. But

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Speaker 4: you never know what these things because sometimes guys come

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Speaker 4: back to practice and I think it was Josh Allen

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Speaker 4: one week last year or two years ago. You just

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Speaker 4: came out of nowhere and played doing was gonna play.

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Speaker 4: So you do have to monitor it. But if he's

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Speaker 4: confirmed in obviously that you would probably get a plus

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Speaker 4: number or something like that. So yeah, I think it's

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Speaker 4: definitely something to monitor. But I think I thought the

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Speaker 4: Tysons Titans have looked decent, like they made a lot

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Speaker 4: of the changes I wanted them to make, and it's

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Speaker 4: really Levis. That and perhaps the lack of health of

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Speaker 4: DeAndre Hopkins, because you know that obviously would help Levis

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Speaker 4: and that's the guy. You know, they brought in some

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Speaker 4: new guys around him, but Hopkins was a guy he

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Speaker 4: had the chemistry with. So maybe some of these things

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Speaker 4: wouldn't be happening if Hopkins played more snaps than these

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Speaker 4: first two weeks. But he's just not healthy yet, So

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Speaker 4: I think that's it's really just Levis. We know how

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Speaker 4: important a quarterback is and it's ringing true here. That

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Speaker 4: is a that's a great segue actually into my first

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Speaker 4: pick overall the week three Sunday six pack Carolina plus

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Speaker 4: five and a half. I gotta do it, gotta do it.

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Speaker 5: So I had the Panthers the first two weeks. I

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Speaker 5: have them again this week. I mean I didn't having

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Speaker 5: a great NFL yout the Titans and Panthers. I was

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Speaker 5: gonna take the Panthers with my third pick if you didn't,

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Speaker 5: for the good of the podcast, for the good of

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Speaker 5: my bet, I feel like you need to take them

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Speaker 5: on the show.

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Speaker 4: No one's dodn't want to take them, so I don't

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Speaker 4: even know if I should say anything about them. But

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Speaker 4: in case people want to know, just Bryce Young alone,

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Speaker 4: in terms of EPA per play was so ridiculously bad.

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Speaker 4: You're talking about over point two EPA per play, and

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Speaker 4: then you're considering that, you know, thirty forty dropbacks a game.

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Speaker 4: You know, that's a lot of points just right there,

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Speaker 4: real points that Bryce Young is losing, you just at

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Speaker 4: the quarterback position. We got Andy Dalton over that same

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Speaker 4: time frame, even as an older guy a positive so

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Speaker 4: might be positive per play, you know, over a point

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Speaker 4: two different and obviously you're gonna you know, apply a

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Speaker 4: lot of regression to the mean and there, so that's

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Speaker 4: not the true number. But like, just like we were

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Speaker 4: talking about last week, there was some uncertainty with just

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Speaker 4: how much of a downgrade or upgrade you know, Love

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Speaker 4: was to Willis or Willis was to Love. There's a

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Speaker 4: very real chance that Andy dung is you know, two

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Speaker 4: three four points better than br Bright Young could just

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Speaker 4: be go down to one of the worst quarterbacks of

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Speaker 4: all time. So, uh, it's just massive. You mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 4: first starts for these backups. I think that will be

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Speaker 4: beneficial here and the Raiders they ruined a lot of

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Speaker 4: people survivor pools, but you look at them and where

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Speaker 4: they're at, even with Brott Vauers playing well, even with

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Speaker 4: Davante Adams, you know, having a big game, bottom four

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Speaker 4: EPA per play on offense. So and that's what I think.

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Speaker 4: Gardner Minch is what the only quarterback to throw for

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Speaker 4: two fifteen both games. So this Raider team can now

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Speaker 4: run the balls at least that helps a little bit

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Speaker 4: for the Panthers.

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Speaker 5: And I think they're the only team worse than the Panthers'

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Speaker 5: successfully wise running the ball this year, right, Panthers run

301
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Speaker 5: day is horrible.

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Speaker 3: So that's big.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And listen, like, I'm not gonna say a ton

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Speaker 4: of great things about the Panthers because there's really nothing.

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Speaker 4: But you get that, you get young out of there,

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Speaker 4: and you get a competent quarterback, it helps everything. It

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Speaker 4: helps to the locker room, it helps the defense because

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Speaker 4: the defense has just been putting really tough spots. I

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Speaker 4: think the average drive start for Panthers opponents this year

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Speaker 4: is like thirty nine point one or yard line. So

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Speaker 4: just a lot of things that just getting Dalton in

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Speaker 4: there solves. You have all of the trends that you

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Speaker 4: kind of mentioned with these win with dogs, you know,

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Speaker 4: week three oh and two straight up oh and two

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Speaker 4: against the spread sixty two percent over the last twenty years.

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Speaker 4: You know, there's just numerous just oh and two straight

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Speaker 4: up dogs, well over sixty percent. There's just numerous of

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Speaker 4: these trends. I don't think the Panthers go oh in

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Speaker 4: seventeen against the spread and this Raider team, but this is,

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Speaker 4: you know, bottom floor an offensive EPA, which is right

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Speaker 4: there with the Panthers, and we know that's the most

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Speaker 4: important kind of aspect of football. So you're talking about

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Speaker 4: them being favored by you know, more than well more

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Speaker 4: over for almost two field goals, you know, just off

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Speaker 4: this upset win over the Ravens where there was a

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Speaker 4: lot of lucky stuff going on in the Ravens. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you know better than anyone. They just do that sometimes.

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Speaker 4: It's so frustrating. It must be so frustrating for a

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Speaker 4: Ravens fan. Frustrating for me because I had them in

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Speaker 4: a couple of spots. But there's nothing about this Raider

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Speaker 4: team that scares me in this spot especially, and I

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Speaker 4: don't think I don't think they should be anywhere to go.

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Speaker 4: So five and a half six point favorite, So give

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Speaker 4: me Carolina one more time and see if we can

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Speaker 4: make it work.

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Speaker 3: Fall Knife, Yeah, yeah, I agree with this.

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Speaker 5: I mean, look, coming into the year, I was higher

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Speaker 5: than the market on Carolina, and I assume that Bryce

339
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Speaker 5: Young would be better with that new offense, upgraded weapon.

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Speaker 5: The offensive line has been much better the past has

341
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Speaker 5: been much Young one of twenty on third downs. Half

342
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Speaker 5: of those misses and incompletions are due to just pure inaccuracy.

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Speaker 5: Guys open, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: It was like Hackenberg out there. Man, it was bad.

345
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Speaker 5: It has no confidence at all. Adam Field's blowing up

346
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Speaker 5: on the sideline.

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Speaker 3: It's bad.

348
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Speaker 5: I agree, it might be like a three point upgrade.

349
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Speaker 5: Dalton can at least provide competent quarterback play. I mean

350
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Speaker 5: when was that. The last time that we saw Dalton

351
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Speaker 5: start a game was last year at Seattle, YEP, and

352
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Speaker 5: he threw for three to sixty in that game. I mean,

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Speaker 5: Bryce Young, it will take them ten games to get

354
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Speaker 5: to that. I mean, it's a guy with the adjusted

355
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Speaker 5: net York per attempt of about one. Last year's QBR

356
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Speaker 5: was around thirty four. Only Jack Wilson was barely worse

357
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Speaker 5: this year's nine. I mean, it's unbelievable how bad he's

358
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Speaker 5: been so and it's just a bad spot for the Raiders,

359
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Speaker 5: and you just have a quarterback who's not completely incompetent.

360
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Speaker 4: This might actually reflect the best on Canalis himself because

361
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Speaker 4: Frank Reich just played this dude. Last year. Canalis was

362
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Speaker 4: even brought in to fix Bryce Young. You had that reputation.

363
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Speaker 4: I even bought into it, mistakenly it appears, But the

364
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Speaker 4: bottom line is two games in he saw we all

365
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Speaker 4: saw and said, you know what, that's it. That's a

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Speaker 4: positive thing. That's the first positive step I think you

367
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Speaker 4: could take there. So I am intrigued to see. I

368
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Speaker 4: don't think that would be the only thing that looks different,

369
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Speaker 4: almost like they changed coaches. But I think that bodes

370
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Speaker 4: well that he was able to, you know, make that

371
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Speaker 4: decision that quickly.

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Speaker 5: All right. For my second pick and the third overall

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Speaker 5: the Week three Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

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Speaker 5: Miami Dolphins plus four and a half. Yes, we started

375
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Speaker 5: off with Will Levis, Andy Dalton and now Skylar Thompson.

376
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Speaker 5: I think there's a great spot for Miami desperate team out.

377
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Speaker 5: That bad loss was one of the worst game plans

378
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Speaker 5: I've ever seen from Mike McDaniel.

379
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Speaker 3: I don't know why they weren't throwing over the middle

380
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 3: of the field. I don't know.

381
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Speaker 5: I mean, it was perplexing, to say the least. I

382
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Speaker 5: expect him to be better here, but you have extended rests,

383
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 5: which helps when you're making a quarterback change. Skyt Thompson

384
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Speaker 5: does at least have a previous experience. You know, I'm

385
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Speaker 5: not the biggest to a guy, so I don't think

386
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Speaker 5: the drop off is as big as the market does.

387
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Speaker 5: But again, it's a game where you get everyone else

388
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Speaker 5: stepping up. Is you know, it's a huge game. You

389
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Speaker 5: lost your quarterback backup QB theory in first game, and

390
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 5: the Seahawks are coming off an overtime win, coming across

391
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Speaker 5: the country, you know, and as a favorite, and teams

392
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 5: have not fared well historically in that spot off of

393
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 5: an overtime game. And look the Seahawks. I was highing

394
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Speaker 5: them coming into the year. You're asking them to win

395
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 5: by decent margin. Now, Kenneth Walker, I don't think is

396
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,880
Speaker 5: gonna play. That's huge because the run game just isn't

397
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Speaker 5: there without him. And this is a Seahawks team that

398
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Speaker 5: has played Bo Nicks in his first ever start on

399
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Speaker 5: the road and the Patriots, So even with Skyler Thompson,

400
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 5: this is a big upgrade in terms of the offensive

401
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 5: firepower that you're gonna face. I also expect the Dolphins

402
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 5: defense to continue to get better as the season goes on.

403
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 5: I actually like their secondary, which is the most important

404
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 5: factor here against the Seahawks, who I don't think are

405
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 5: going to be able to run it consistently without Walker

406
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 5: so and I think they can employee some of the

407
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 5: things defensively that give Gino some issues. So I think

408
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 5: it's a good spot to back the Dolphins as a

409
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Speaker 5: dog here.

410
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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts.

411
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Speaker 4: I worry a little bit about Skyler, like I mean,

412
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Speaker 4: he hasn't been good even with you know, with Tyreek

413
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 4: and Waddle. But I do think if you're gonna back,

414
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Speaker 4: if you're gonna fade the Seahawks, you want to do

415
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 4: it with a team that at least has receivers because

416
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 4: their cornerbacks has been playing really well. I like what

417
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 4: I'm seeing out of that out of your boy Grub,

418
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 4: I will say that, but it's the spot is bad.

419
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 4: The spot is bad and you're getting over four for

420
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 4: a team that you're still gonna have h n you

421
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 4: have but four or five guys that could just be

422
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 4: the equalizers here. So I get it if you're backing

423
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Speaker 4: like a team like this with a sky with Thompson,

424
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Speaker 4: uh like it's it's it's I like it even more

425
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Speaker 4: than the than the than the Willis pick, because again

426
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 4: you have you have guys that could just kind of

427
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 4: flip swing the game in one play, and you still

428
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 4: have McDaniel uh on long rest, so and maybe motivated

429
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 4: Dolphin squad. I know from what I know, they seemed

430
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 4: to uh you know, rally behind to us. I'm sure

431
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 4: they want to kind of step up, especially after they

432
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 4: didn't look good at all against it as a favorite

433
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 4: against the Bills, so they should.

434
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Speaker 3: I don't like max upper game here.

435
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, it should be all right.

436
00:22:58,600 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 5: Uh.

437
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 4: I mean we're gonna stay ugly because my second the

438
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,959
Speaker 4: fourth overall of the week three Sunday six pack, I

439
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: am going with the Denver Bronco lost six. Oh god

440
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 4: at Tampa Bay.

441
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 3: It's ugly Knicks levels. Dolgin's the best quarterback so far.

442
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that on the worst might be the worst

443
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 4: team of all time. But so first of all, this

444
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 4: slater is a little bit of a weird slate, right

445
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: because I mean, we do this anyway, but I feel

446
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 4: like these are just kind of sticking out to me,

447
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 4: is like the only picks I want to make. But

448
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 4: this is just a fate of Tampa Bay. And hopefully

449
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 4: you get uh more modest improvement from Nicks, who can't

450
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 4: really get any worse. He has no touchdown passage, huh.

451
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 4: I mean, I hope you know, but bro, he has

452
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 4: no touchdowns, four picks, a few turnovers in the red zone.

453
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 4: So somehow despite all of that, Lebroncos still have still

454
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 4: been within a possession in both of their games, even

455
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 4: covered one that first one against Seattle. And this is

456
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 4: the number one matchup by far in our luck rankings

457
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 4: as far as I remember, just going back over a

458
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 4: few seasons, this is a luck differential of thirty and

459
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 4: a luck gap of over one hundred percent. And these

460
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 4: are just you know, when when these things trigger, so

461
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 4: a differential of twenty eight or more, these things have

462
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 4: gone up fifty three and twenty nine against the spread

463
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 4: sixty five percent. Road teams have been even better, and

464
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, I mean I was fading, you know, that

465
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 4: scoring in that Lion's Bucks game. But for Tampa Bay

466
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 4: with that defense, and I know they do have some

467
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 4: chops as far as breaking up some passes here and there,

468
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 4: but for them to hold the Lions to one of

469
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 4: seven in the red zone like that, I just think

470
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 4: there's so there's gonna be regression coming to this Bucks

471
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 4: at some point. You know. Sean Payton still, I think

472
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 4: is a is a coach that can get his team

473
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 4: to play. I mean, the fact that they even had

474
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 4: a chance to tie the game against the Steelers last

475
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 4: week out gained him. Nix's success rate did go up incrementally.

476
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 5: And the higher success rate at the Steelers in that

477
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 5: game up yeah, right, which say more about the Steelers offense.

478
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: But I Payton had an awful.

479
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 5: Game kicking the field goals when you're down two scores

480
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 5: two touchdowns.

481
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 3: Uh the not on side kicking it by ways.

482
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's like we had. But yeah, it's everything's been

483
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 4: going wrong for the Broncos, and yet I just think

484
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 4: they can stick around here. This is kind of one

485
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 4: of those spots where you have all the trends working

486
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 4: for you in terms of you know, the winless dogs

487
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 4: and what. But also you know when you look at

488
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 4: Knicks and in this offense, Payton p hooded to some changes.

489
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 4: I wonder if he's I wonder if he's gonna bring

490
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: on one of the backup quarterbacks. I wonder if he's

491
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 4: going to bring in, you know, switch it out with

492
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 4: a Lucas Kroll active or something, because I mean they

493
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 4: got so many they still got Troy Franklin really doing

494
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 4: nothing like NIMS hasn't been playing offensive snaps. So there's

495
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 4: there's a few things that I think Denver could do

496
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 4: to be a better offense. And you know this Bucks team,

497
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 4: I just think they've been getting so what. I mean,

498
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 4: they played this Washington defense in Week one, which is

499
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 4: just I mean, their numbers are inflated all that, and

500
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 4: then last week the Lions with the runoff at the

501
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 4: end of the half and just all these different things

502
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 4: kind of the Lions have.

503
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 5: Like a ninety five percent post game went expectancy too.

504
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 5: I had some survivor with the Giants who lost their kicker.

505
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 5: I had some who had a ninety five percent postgame

506
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 5: when expects score in the red zone. And I had

507
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 5: some Ravens. Yeah, postgame went expectancy. I lost all my

508
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 5: Survivor entries on that. By the way, Survivor, we're already out.

509
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 5: A lot of people are out of it, like eighty

510
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 5: percent of people out in some pools. So if you're

511
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 5: still in, you don't need our help, So we don't

512
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 5: we don't need to talk about that going forward, look ahead.

513
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I just I do think that there is

514
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 4: some upside here with this Bronco team. I think this

515
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 4: Bucks team like this is like now people are talking

516
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 4: about them, is like I've seen them power rated in

517
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 4: the top five. I just think this is kind of

518
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 4: the top of their market. You know, they're coming off

519
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 4: a big upset win over the Lines where they're super

520
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 4: bang up defense. I just think that this is a

521
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,719
Speaker 4: bad spot for Tampa Bay. And we know about all

522
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 4: the all the trends. Baker Mayfield, let's talk about every

523
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 4: time it seems like he's about to get sacked, he

524
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: ends up like miraculously slipping out of it, or there's

525
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 4: a penalty. Chris Godwin. The Lions didn't cover Chris Godwin

526
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 4: the entire half. That's the only guy that what passes

527
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 4: from Mayfield. Essentially that the Bucks offense did nothing in

528
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 4: the second half. So yeah, Baker Mayfield being favored by

529
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 4: six points is just it's another one that just kind

530
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 4: of makes you look and say, Okay, it's time. So

531
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,199
Speaker 4: Baker is just thirty seven percent against the spread as

532
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 4: a favorite in this So give me the Broncos plus

533
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 4: six and a half.

534
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 5: It is the spot and at seven it's the play,

535
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 5: I think. But there are some injuries worth noting here,

536
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 5: like McGlinchey for the Broncos gonna be out that could

537
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 5: be problematic. On the defensive end for the Broncos, they're

538
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 5: not particularly talented up front, and you might not have Browning.

539
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 5: Franklin Myers are both hurt, so gets dicey up there.

540
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 5: The Bucks also have some injuries worth noting. No Winfield,

541
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 5: one of the best safeties in the league, Vita Vea, Nancy,

542
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 5: they're starting toff.

543
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 4: It was even White was Benga. Yeah.

544
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 3: I don't think any of those three that I mentioned

545
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 3: practice today. So but still even without.

546
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 5: Them, I think when Bay was only a half last week,

547
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 5: they still generated the third most pressures against Detroit, which

548
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 5: was really impressive because Detroit is a really good offensive line.

549
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 5: Now you're going up against the Broncos offensive line that

550
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 5: isn't great. It's down there starting right tackle. The backup

551
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 5: options aren't great, and so I just worry about Nicks.

552
00:28:56,440 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 5: Like the one thing that I will say in fa

553
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 5: of the Broncos here is that they went on the

554
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 5: road to Seattle in their first in the brown Nicks's

555
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 5: first ever start like that was never going to go well,

556
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 5: and then they played the Steelers defense. Now you get

557
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 5: a break against the Bucks. Can you get the run

558
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 5: game going? Couldn't do it in the first two games.

559
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 5: There's an opportunity, especially if the Bucks are shorthanded. That's

560
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 5: when Knicks can have success. But I agree with the

561
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 5: spot here. For my third pick, fifth overall of the

562
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 5: week three Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Atlanta

563
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 5: Falcons plus three and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs.

564
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 7: The Falcon defense names unknown to Munch of the football world,

565
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 7: but names representing defensive players who know the meaning of

566
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 7: the word team.

567
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 5: Finally, back the quarterback who has some chops in Kirk Cousins.

568
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 5: This isn't the best spot right Monday night win, motional win,

569
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 5: come back in a short week to play the Chiefs.

570
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 5: But when in Dalt Fade, the Chiefs as a favorite

571
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 5: of more than a field goal homes in his career

572
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 5: thirty eight forty three and two against the spread, is

573
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 5: a favorite of more than field about twenty four eight

574
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 5: and one against the spread, as a favorite of free

575
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 5: or less or as an underdog. I you know, and

576
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 5: the Chiefs have issues. If you watch their games, you

577
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 5: can tell there's still no explosiveness in the passing attack.

578
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 5: Hollywood Brown, is he gonna be out? He's out for

579
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 5: the year.

580
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 3: I think maybe, yeah. Yeah.

581
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 4: The Rice more downfield, though I will say that it's.

582
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 5: Basically Rice worthy. I don't think is really ready yet.

583
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 5: It's so it's sort of a similar game plan to

584
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 5: last week for the Falcons. Right, you have one good corner,

585
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 5: although Edwards is playing well so far, you have one

586
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 5: really good corner in Terrell.

587
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: Do you just have to worry about Rice?

588
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 5: Last week you just had a you know, you had

589
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 5: a j Brown outs he just had to worry about

590
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 5: DeVante Smith. The Chiefs also still have issues to tackle Kingsley,

591
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 5: the rookie was a mess, got benched, and there there's

592
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 5: just and now you don't have to checko like Carson

593
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 5: Steele runs hard, but he's not the Checko and I

594
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 5: like how this Falcons defense has looked so far this season.

595
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 5: Just adding Justin Simmons on the back end with Bates,

596
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 5: adding Matthew Judah up front were just huge additions that

597
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 5: raised the floor of this defense.

598
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 3: And then on the offensive.

599
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 5: Side of the ball, where did the fat and I

600
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,239
Speaker 5: think the Falcons numbers and power rating, you know, if

601
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 5: you just go based off of their performances being way

602
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 5: down by that Week one game where I don't know

603
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 5: what they were doing offensively, they just had Cousins in

604
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 5: pistol running it or and shotgun throwing his most predictable

605
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 5: game pun I've ever seen, the no play action, didn't

606
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 5: have him under center, and it was his first game back,

607
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 5: right like he hadn't played, didn't play in the preseason.

608
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 5: You always expect production to be way down in that scenario.

609
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 5: Started slow Week two, but then you finally started to

610
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 5: see him get going as that game went on and

611
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 5: they weren't predictable anymore. They were using more play action,

612
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 5: they had him under center, and what are they going

613
00:31:58,720 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 5: to do in this game because they had a really

614
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 5: good offensive line, They're going to lean on Jon Robinson

615
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 5: and some algier Because you know it's not fixed.

616
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 3: The Chiefs run defense.

617
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 5: They are thirty first an EPA per rush loud, thirty

618
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 5: second in rush success rate fifty eight percent. I think

619
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 5: the only other team over fifty is that mash unit

620
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 5: in Los Angeles with the Rams. So the run dye

621
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 5: is still really bad, so lean on Robinson sort of

622
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 5: like last week, the Falcons were just doing whatever they

623
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 5: wanted on the ground. That sets up the play action,

624
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 5: that sets up the easy passes for Cousins, who I

625
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 5: think started to feel more comfortable as that game went on,

626
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 5: actually started to throw the ball down. Feel seems like

627
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 5: who's afraid to do that? In the first two games.

628
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 5: Now Spags will blitz more and test Cousins more than

629
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 5: Fangio did last week. I don't think he was aggressive enough.

630
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 5: But the Falcons do have a really good offensive line.

631
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 5: The Chiefs don't have a TJ. Watt off the edge.

632
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 5: You basically ruin that game, but that was more about

633
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 5: the game plan and Cousins just being rusty, lost and

634
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 5: not put in the right position. So yeah, the Chiefs

635
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,479
Speaker 5: really could be going too won the first game by

636
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 5: a toe possibly, and they got out played by the

637
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 5: Bengals last week.

638
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 3: No matter what metric you look at. They had to

639
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 3: scoop and score late. Bengals, don't you know they.

640
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 5: Miss an extra point. There's a fourth and sixteen pass

641
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 5: interference call on a seventh round rookie on an uncatchable ball.

642
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 5: It's probably the right call. But if we're going on

643
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 5: the right call by the letter of the law, not

644
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 5: to still be bitter, but the pick that Lamar threw

645
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 5: into triple coverage last year in the AFC Championship game,

646
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 5: I mean it was the same exact play that the

647
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 5: Chiefs did, so but that you don't call it there,

648
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 5: you threw in the triple coverage.

649
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: So but anyway, I.

650
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 5: Mean, the Chiefs extremely lucky to be two and oh,

651
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 5: and they barely won both games. They could easily be

652
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 5: oing too. So yeah, I think Falc lean on the

653
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 5: ground game here you're catching over a field goal. The

654
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 5: Chiefs just play with their food in these spots. That's

655
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 5: just what they do. I mean, if I had to say,

656
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 5: what the most likely outcome in this game is Chiefs

657
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 5: win by a field goal, So give me the Falcons.

658
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 5: I think they ride that wave and momentum into this

659
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 5: week in prime time. It's not the best spot, short

660
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 5: week off that emotional win. There's some trends that go

661
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 5: against the Falcons. You have they're pulling off an upset,

662
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 5: has an underdog on the short week back home has

663
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 5: a dog. But I like anything over a field goal here,

664
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 5: and we got to get some quarter, some offense that

665
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,320
Speaker 5: has a pulse. So we're going with the Atlanta Falcons.

666
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 4: If they were giving the ball a lot of Robinson

667
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 4: in the first game and then they said, okay, you

668
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 4: know we're gonna have to get algiermore involved it. They

669
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 4: just seem to be doing things more practically after you

670
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 4: know it's coming into the year. Everything was kind of

671
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 4: we were worried, like, all right, is the front office

672
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 4: on the same page, What's what's going on with penix pick?

673
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 4: But everything's kind of coming together, so you know, the

674
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 4: only thing you can't have it in Week three is

675
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 4: just you wish you'd see more sample size of it.

676
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 4: But I think they're headed in the right direction. But

677
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with my third pick and I'm for

678
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 4: the sixth overall of the Week three six pack, and

679
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 4: I'm gonna roll with the field over Eagles plus two

680
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 4: and a half at the Saints here and I just

681
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 4: think this is a complete overreaction to a you know,

682
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 4: let be honest, the last second just melt down, kind

683
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 4: of similar to the Ravens did defense just forgot to

684
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 4: show up. There were two straight passes to Mooney of

685
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 4: twenty plus after he's quiet the whole game. But the

686
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,720
Speaker 4: Eagles are minus three on the road against the Saints,

687
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 4: and you know, the Saints. You can upgrade the Saints.

688
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 4: It's hard to know exactly how much, too, because they've

689
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 4: been so efficient they've only needed a few plays to

690
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 4: do damage. You know, shit, Heed's catching long bombs. Derek

691
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 4: Carr really hasn't had a true drop back game yet.

692
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 4: He's been mostly play action, which is completely different. So

693
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 4: there's a lot of unknown still about the Saints. Obviously

694
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: they need to be upgraded, that their line is better,

695
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,439
Speaker 4: but uh, this Eagle team, like the line moved even

696
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 4: more after they blow after they blow the lead. So

697
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 4: it's just to me, this is this this like a

698
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 4: five and a half point swing. It's too much, even

699
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 4: with accounting for a j Brown out, accounting for the

700
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 4: upgrade for the Saints, and accounting for the Eagles, you know,

701
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 4: being on short rest, I still think that this Eagles

702
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 4: team they have. You know, the one thing that the

703
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 4: Saints played two teams so far that really couldn't run

704
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 4: the ball. Uh, you started against Carolina and then you

705
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 4: played Dallas, and you know, they they're running game. I

706
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 4: mean that they were. I think it was fun at

707
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 4: like five or six carries in the first half, and

708
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 4: dat missed a bunch of stuff. It was just it

709
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 4: was it was one of those kind of like that

710
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 4: egg they laid in we I think it was in

711
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 4: Arizona last year. So it's really hard to kind of

712
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 4: gauge just how much improved the Saints are. And this

713
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 4: is a classic overreaction week. The Eagles were being talked

714
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 4: about as a number one seed, potentially you know, Super

715
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 4: Bowl NFC representative, and they blow this lead to Kirk

716
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 4: Cousins and the Falcons. I still think that the Eagles

717
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 4: have a you know, a lot working in their favor. Yes,

718
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 4: the defense is a problem. You and I both thought

719
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 4: it would you know, it would take some time. So

720
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 4: even though it is a short week, it's still six

721
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 4: days later, and they did play fairly okay for you know,

722
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 4: most of that game. They're in position to win. That's

723
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 4: all you can ask for. So I just think this

724
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 4: is a big, big overreaction here to the Saints, who

725
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 4: you know, played this cancer tea which is just really

726
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 4: hard to gauge, and then you know, are hitting a

727
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 4: bunch of explosives with explosives, which we know is always

728
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 4: going to kind of skew things. As It's great because

729
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 4: I love Rashichahad, but you know that's always going to

730
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 4: kind of skew matters. And Alvin Kamara had a big run,

731
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 4: and it's just a lot there's a lot of noise

732
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 4: I think in the Saints. So this may very well

733
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 4: be the top of their market with them flipping six

734
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 4: points in a few hours against a team that was

735
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 4: thought to do on the top contenders in the NFC.

736
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 4: So give me the Eagles plus two and a half.

737
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 4: Maybe it'll get to three. I think I have seen

738
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,479
Speaker 4: it actually a juiced up three. But yeah, I'm hoping

739
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 4: it does because it's it just seems like everyone's kind

740
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 4: of piling on the Eagles right now.

741
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 7: Just absolutely a gutchit call, but a really good call.

742
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I will say the Eagles offense, it's

743
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 5: it's just not the same without Aj Brown, I mean,

744
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 5: Dotson was a ghost last week. I think the only

745
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 5: time I heard his name was when he had a

746
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 5: holding penalty and then you're you're throwing to Covey.

747
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 4: I know, what was that about it?

748
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 5: I do think it's too much of an overreaction teaser

749
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 5: alert for the teaser segment. I like the Eagles as

750
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 5: a teaser option, even with a little higher total. But

751
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 5: you know, I think this line has gone too far,

752
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 5: and you know, getting them up over eight.

753
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 3: Is a good look here.

754
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 5: But I will say I believe in the Saints' offense

755
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 5: from what I've seen so far. I mean, Cars throwing

756
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,919
Speaker 5: fifty one percent of his past attempts with play action

757
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 5: last year, one of the lowest usage rates of play

758
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 5: action and motion under Kubiak. That's completely changed the offensive

759
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 5: line is. I mean, I Lucas Patrick all of a sudden,

760
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 5: his elite who their rookie, their Tat Pennings playing well.

761
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 3: Their entire offensive line looks completely elite. McCoy has been dominant.

762
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 5: Eagles defense does still have some issues, like they're not

763
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 5: able to really generate pressure. That's how you have to

764
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 5: throw car off. But I think it's Eagles are nothing here.

765
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 5: But I prefer them in a teaser.

766
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 4: This is why we kind of love this time here.

767
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 4: We haven't seen the Saints even trailing in a game yet.

768
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 4: Like if the Eagles get the ball first, go down

769
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 4: and get in on a Toush push, it could be

770
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: you can see all do Saints offense. So yeah, give

771
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 4: me the Eagles. All right, let's see what we got here.

772
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 4: So quarterbacks, So you got Will Levis and the Titans

773
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:57,479
Speaker 4: minus two, Skyler and the Dolphins and her cousins. Not bad.

774
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 4: I got Andy Dalton, the Knicks and Jalen Hurts. So

775
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,399
Speaker 4: two are demon quarterbacks. That's gonna do it for our

776
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 4: NFL Week three Sunday six pack. And now it's time

777
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 4: for our coach at pep talk. Every time we get

778
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 4: ready to play, I just want to throw up. So depressed,

779
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 4: I don't even want to talk about it. I'm sick.

780
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 4: I'm watching you guys play.

781
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:19,919
Speaker 3: Just how bad can it get?

782
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 4: All right? Uh, this week's coach is pep talk, an

783
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 4: actual pep talk from an actual coach. It comes to

784
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 4: us from University of Nebraska head coach Matt Ruhle, and

785
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 4: we got to dedicate it to the Carolina Panthers. Matt Rules,

786
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 4: former team. Nobody's done what we've done. Nobody's built like us.

787
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 4: Take all that nervous and send it out of this

788
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 4: room right now. Cast it out. Your warriors.

789
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 7: You are ready, one snap at a time.

790
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 4: Play together, your warriors. You're ready play one snap at

791
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 4: a time. Play together.

792
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:58,760
Speaker 6: Play because we love.

793
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 4: The win and we're winners. Can't wait to watch you

794
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 4: guys play. Best of going to the Panthers. Just want

795
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 4: to let everybody know that our sister company, Playmaker, just

796
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 4: release a new podcast that we're all really enjoying over

797
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,320
Speaker 4: here at Action It's called the Get Got Podcast, hosted

798
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 4: by NFL legends mar Sean Lynch and his former fullback

799
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 4: Mike Robinson of NFL Network, So be sure to check

800
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 4: it out. And with that, here's Mike and our boy

801
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 4: Beast Mode himself to tell you about Action Pro.

802
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 2: Try and get your chicken betting on the NFL this

803
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:34,880
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804
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,400
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805
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,120
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806
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,120
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807
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,560
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808
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,400
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809
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811
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,480
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812
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813
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814
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815
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:17,359
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816
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 4: You know what I'm saying. Now it's time for our

817
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 4: favorite total of the week. We both at our totals

818
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 4: last week. You had the Niners Vikings under I had

819
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 4: the Lions Bucks under. So this week I'll go first

820
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 4: since you went first from six pack, and I'm gonna

821
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 4: go with the Chargers Steelers under thirty six. This is

822
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 4: just a situation where you have you know, the Steelers

823
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 4: want to run the ball. You know, I can't give

824
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 4: you all the ingredients to the hot dog.

825
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 3: You might not like it.

826
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 4: That's gonna be the case as long as they have

827
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 4: justin fields and probably even if they have Wilson. At

828
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 4: some point in our quarterback you have Arthur Smith. There

829
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 4: was one of the most run heavy coordinators with Atlanta

830
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 4: as well. The difference between this and Atlanta is he

831
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 4: has his run game and this really good defense, and

832
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 4: you're dealing with potential injury to Justin Herberts. You know,

833
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 4: the Chargers want to do the same thing, just run

834
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 4: the football. Greg Roman, Jesse Minner, Ryan Ficking. Those coordinators

835
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 4: like Moses, I'm going to die leaning on my staff.

836
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 4: You're gonna see a lot of runs. Both of these

837
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 4: teams are at the top in defensive metrics. Some of

838
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 4: that I think is the opponents they faced, but we

839
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,919
Speaker 4: know how these teams want to play. There's a lot

840
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 4: of still I think, variants with totals because if you

841
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 4: just kind of model it out with the kickoffs, you

842
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 4: would expect an increase. But then there's been some other

843
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 4: things happening, just kind of wide receiver injuries to bad

844
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 4: quarterback plays, a lot of rookies playing, just different things

845
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,479
Speaker 4: that have happened that have also kind of brought down

846
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 4: totals and passing numbers. So there's a lot of numbers

847
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 4: that I really kind of don't feel great about on

848
00:43:54,960 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 4: the totals market. But this Charger Pittsburgh one, given the quarterback,

849
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 4: given the schemes, and given the defenses, and I think

850
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 4: the Tigers are improved on defense regardless of facing the

851
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 4: Raiders and Panthers. So yeah, give me Chargers, Steelers under

852
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 4: thirty six.

853
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the Browns, Giants under we'll say

854
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,919
Speaker 5: under thirty eight and a half, the New.

855
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 6: York Giants glory Ears or a distant memory for their

856
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 6: long suffering followers who have endured through the worst of chimes.

857
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 5: When you look at this game, I'm still not sold

858
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 5: in to Sean Watson. He was a little better last week,

859
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 5: good on the first scripted drive. It's now the Giants

860
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 5: defense is not good, especially in the back end. But

861
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 5: I know this is an okay matchup for them outdoors,

862
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 5: brown stuff tackle issues. Can't run the ball, and I

863
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 5: think he even wasn't Jones didn't practice today. I'm a

864
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 5: double check now, So who knows what their tackle situation

865
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 5: is gonna be like, which could be problematic against the

866
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 5: Giants pass rush and then the Giants offense. I don't

867
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 5: know how they're gonna move the ball here. I mean,

868
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 5: Daniel Jones under pressure is a disaster.

869
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:02,919
Speaker 3: They can't really run the ball.

870
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 5: I don't think they're going to run the ball in

871
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 5: the Browns. I mean, how many times can you throw

872
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 5: it to Elik Nighbors.

873
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know really what was going on

874
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 2: back there, but you know I'm getting out of my

875
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 2: rouse and trying to find him.

876
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 4: I mean, I was just doing my job.

877
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 5: I expect Ward to up his snap count this week.

878
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 5: I think it only played like eleven snaps last week.

879
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:22,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, he wasn't right, Yeah, so it was advancers.

880
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 5: I expect him to be closer to normal. Garrett's dealing

881
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 5: with an injury too, but I think he'll be fine.

882
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 5: How are the Giants gonna move the ball here? I mean,

883
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 5: how many targets and neighbors get last week?

884
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 3: At eighteen?

885
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 4: I think eighteen I got sixty seven percent rate or something.

886
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 4: Just absurd.

887
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 5: Jim Schwartz in this defense against Daniel Jones, I don't

888
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 5: think it's going to end well. This should be a

889
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:45,720
Speaker 5: super low scoring game. So yeah, give me the Giants

890
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 5: Browns under. Maybe we get some win to help it out.

891
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 4: Too, Giants Browns under thirty eight and a half. I

892
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 4: agree with you on Watson. I just don't think he's

893
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 4: right and still just missing a lot of pieces. And

894
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 4: it's every week, you like, it's like we're grasping the

895
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 4: straws here, You're like, oh, you rucked the tiny bit

896
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 4: better because the bear we's go to touchdown on the

897
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 4: opening driving then did nothing for the next three quarters.

898
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,919
Speaker 4: It's like, oh, okay, it's not great. It's not great

899
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 4: for Deshaun. Now you're having to worry about Cooper a

900
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 4: little too.

901
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 3: It's like no chemistry there. It seems that was Flacco.

902
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 4: You know, even najokubas Flacco. He doesn't matter because he's out.

903
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 4: But yeah, Chargers Steelers for me under thirty six, Giants

904
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 4: Brown for you under thirty eight and a half. And

905
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 4: now it's time four our favorite teaser a week.

906
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

907
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 4: Don't don't change, don't tease me. Where are you going

908
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 4: this week?

909
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 3: All right?

910
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 5: Already bunched the Eagles a little higher total, so it's

911
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 5: not the ideal teaser piece, but I'd show enough value

912
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 5: in the Eagles out their current number to feel good

913
00:46:55,680 --> 00:47:00,040
Speaker 5: about teasing him up to eight and a half. And

914
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 5: they might even be able to shorten that game with

915
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 5: their They'll they'll have like a patent and patented like

916
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 5: nine minute drive like they seem to do every game.

917
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 5: And the obvious one here is the Chargers, teasing them

918
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 5: up from one and a half to seven and a

919
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 5: half in a game with a total hole sitting at

920
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 5: thirty six, so super valuable. They're getting a touchdown in

921
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 5: a game with a total that low. Two physical teams.

922
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:36,919
Speaker 5: You know you just talked about the under should be

923
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 5: a war. I mean, the Steelers, what are they trying

924
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 5: to do? They just want to run the ball. They're

925
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 5: first in rush attempts using a ton of two tight

926
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 5: end sets, but they're not doing it well. I mean

927
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 5: they're twenty eighth yards per carry, twenty eighth yards before contact,

928
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 5: twenty eighth and epa per rush and Chargers run dy

929
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 5: has actually looked good, although they got to play the

930
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,720
Speaker 5: Raiders and Panthers, which is a bit of a concern,

931
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 5: the two worst rush off offenses in the NFL. But

932
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:05,959
Speaker 5: I do think their defense is improved overall under minter.

933
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 5: Chargers staying east for this game, which I like. And

934
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 5: what do the Steelers do? They just win one possession

935
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 5: games two and l this year despite only having one

936
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 5: touchdown since twenty twenty. They're thirty three and eleven straight

937
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 5: up in one possession games. That's an insane number. Thirty

938
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:26,959
Speaker 5: one and thirteen against the spread. They just find ways

939
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 5: to win these games, so wouldn't be surprised they do

940
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 5: it again. One of the reasons why I didn't go

941
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 5: under on the Steelers was just Dyveden pulling out games

942
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 5: like this so for their season win total. But feel

943
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 5: good about teasing the Chargers. So give me the Chargers

944
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 5: and the Eagles.

945
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 4: I'm going Niners and Vikings. I was thinking of going

946
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 4: with the Chargers, but I don't want in case there's

947
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 4: like some justin Herbert foolery where he gets ruled out

948
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 4: light in the week or something. I didn't want both

949
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 4: of us to be tied to that result. So I'll

950
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 4: go Niners. Yeah, I still think the Niners. You know,

951
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 4: I know they have the injury to the Debo and

952
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 4: and and McCaffrey, and this Rams. He always finds a

953
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 4: way to play better or play above their talent level

954
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,479
Speaker 4: in spots. But this has always been a real tough

955
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 4: matchup for the Rams. Going against the Niners. I still

956
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 4: think I qual Well is getting back into into form.

957
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 4: He played ninety three percent of snaps last week. They

958
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 4: could still run block, so I think they can. They

959
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 4: should still be able to get it done here. And

960
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 4: then you know, with Minnesota, it's really just about the

961
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 4: floor Esky. You know, we've talked about this a lot.

962
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 4: I fuck Houston. You know, they're very explosive and and

963
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 4: they obviously have a very talented quarterback at Stroud and

964
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 4: talent all over the players. But you know, I saw

965
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 4: that Chicago defense he then kind of get used to.

966
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 4: They're not invincible, is what I'm saying. They're and they're

967
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 4: coming off a short week going on the road to Minnesota,

968
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 4: you know, which is not not the easiest place to play.

969
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,399
Speaker 4: So I I think Minnesota's defense can kind of keep

970
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:04,439
Speaker 4: him in it again. And it looked, you know, justin

971
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 4: Jefferson looks like he probably goes, which obviously helps. So

972
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 4: I'll go with the U Niers and the Vikings.

973
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 5: Jefferson's really important because Pattison has hurt. You don't know, Hopkinson.

974
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 5: I mean, I really like this Texans team and what

975
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:24,479
Speaker 5: I've seen so far. Obviously, the offense is really good.

976
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 5: Mixon Mixon's might not go, which is I think matters Piers.

977
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 4: It might just be Acres cam Akers back somehows.

978
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 5: Mixon is providing a nice punch that running game, which

979
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 5: they've lacked in the past. But I really like this

980
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 5: this Texans defense. I like the use of Petrie this year.

981
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,720
Speaker 5: How about Lassiter, I hear that's the key to the season,

982
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 5: Like if they find that second corner. I think he's

983
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 5: not allowed like a zero passer rating when targeted this year,

984
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 5: so him instantly have been two of the best corners

985
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 5: in the league so far, So that secondary I think

986
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 5: has significantly improved. Donald is playing really well though. I

987
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 5: mean some of the throws even made after like Jefferson

988
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:06,840
Speaker 5: went out to kind of seal that game, were really impressive.

989
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 5: Just a really well coached team. So yeah, I don't

990
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 5: mind that part of the teaser.

991
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 4: Either, that they never like I feel like they Yeah.

992
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:19,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, they get too conservative. Their staff needs to get

993
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 5: more aggressive in certain spots.

994
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're still ironing some things out, but you don't

995
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 4: want to be doing that against Flores and his Vikings squad.

996
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 4: All right, uh so, yeah, Nins, Vikings and Egos Chargers.

997
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 4: Now it's time for an underdog money line arley.

998
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

999
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 5: It's time for the money line parlay.

1000
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 4: All right, it is. We're on some ugly dogs this week.

1001
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 4: We're going for moneyline, I.

1002
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 3: Don't have so much time on us. Let's go.

1003
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:59,399
Speaker 5: Let's go to the Panthers. Just a lot of arrants

1004
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 5: here that's off of the Raiders. How much of an

1005
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 5: upgrade is it the Dalton I think pretty substantial. So

1006
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 5: Raiders can't run the balls we talked about earlier. So yeah,

1007
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 5: I'll take a shot with the Panthers. The owing two

1008
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 5: Panthers here catching the Raiders in a good spots bad

1009
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 5: Minshew is a bigger favorite.

1010
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 4: No thanks, I'm gonna actually roll with a little bit

1011
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 4: of a strarian pick and go with the g men.

1012
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 5: Man.

1013
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,240
Speaker 4: The reason, you know, everyone's kind of piling on Daniel

1014
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 4: Jones and and and whatnot. But you know, the more

1015
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:29,799
Speaker 4: he targets neighbors, I think the better it is. I

1016
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 4: just don't see enough from Deshaun Watson and and just

1017
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 4: banged up offense to where there's there could be some

1018
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 4: First of all, I don't know what if his if

1019
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 4: his shoulder is truly fully healthy, he just doesn't seem

1020
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 4: to have that same downfield component or even look for it.

1021
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 4: He's not on the same page with his most important receiver.

1022
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:50,839
Speaker 4: He's got issues all over the line. Uh, they're they're

1023
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 4: just kind of forcing him into this spread. Look, you know,

1024
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 4: like they the first game when a joke got hurt,

1025
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 4: they didn't even have like three tight ends active. I

1026
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 4: just think it's I just think there's a lot of

1027
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:05,719
Speaker 4: situations where if the Browns even with like they're as

1028
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 4: good as their defenses, they still they still have to

1029
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 4: play like relatively queen games. If they turn the ball

1030
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 4: over like in in uh, in their own territory, give

1031
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:16,439
Speaker 4: it the Giants something cheap. I think you could see

1032
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 4: the Giants sneak out of here. Uh when you always

1033
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 4: got to do it, the Giants would always do it

1034
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 4: on the road. The would never do it at home

1035
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 4: because that they just don't win games at home, but

1036
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 4: on the road. Daniel Jones has about aut like a

1037
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 4: thirty five to fifteen ratio compared to like negative at home. So, uh,

1038
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 4: this one surprised me. If this is the game the

1039
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 4: Giants find a way to win and then go on

1040
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 4: like another eight game losing streak. So yeah, I'm just

1041
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 4: not fully convinced on on the Browns. I only want

1042
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 4: I'm only interested in them. I think you know when

1043
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 4: they're when they're a dog, because then and you have

1044
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:51,240
Speaker 4: then that that defense gives you some outs.

1045
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 3: But we got a nice dog rice On in the

1046
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:54,720
Speaker 3: game of a super low total.

1047
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, it's I can see, I can see

1048
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 4: this one. I'm just not sold on the Browns, especially

1049
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 4: in this form where they're just very banged up. So

1050
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 4: if you parlay these two together, Carolina at plus two

1051
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 4: hundred the Giants at plus too eighty, this is actually

1052
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 4: be a plus ten to forty partways. So we hit

1053
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 4: this one, it would be it would be fun. So

1054
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 4: good luck to the Panthers, good luck to the g

1055
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 4: ben ugly games, but this is this is what we do.

1056
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 4: Now it's time for best of the rest of the games.

1057
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 4: We did not discuss in any other segment that's gonna be.

1058
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 6: A touchdown, but that may be meaningful to.

1059
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 3: Some of you, you know what I mean.

1060
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 4: All right, First up, we got the Chicago Bears on

1061
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 4: a short week as well after that watch to Houston.

1062
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 1: Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

1063
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 4: On one hand, you have Kate Williams obviously still kind

1064
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 4: of feeling things out, very inefficient. But on the other

1065
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:57,879
Speaker 4: side you have Anthony Richardson, who's just been kind of

1066
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 4: up and down a lot of turnover worthy play and

1067
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 4: his coat seemed just the offense at times. You know,

1068
00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 4: they don't always have the right pacing with Taylor and

1069
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 4: getting him involved. It's just just been a weird year

1070
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 4: for Indianapolis this far. Thus far, you know, we get

1071
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 4: getting around on fifty times. So any thoughts on this

1072
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 4: one is this is this? Caleb's second wing is a dog, Yeah, I.

1073
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 5: Mean I guess the Bear somehow too. And against the

1074
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 5: spread against the closing number, which is insane. Caleb Williams

1075
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 5: still has time to develop. He's not quite there yet.

1076
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 5: They he can't handle pressure. Bear's offensive line is a

1077
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 5: mess right now. I haven't liked the play calling either.

1078
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,280
Speaker 5: And in the locker room there's been some rumblings about

1079
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 5: like a couple of the guys who are like, hey,

1080
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 5: we're just running the plays that are called, like hinting

1081
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 5: that the play calling hasn't been great. They allowed thirty

1082
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 5: six pressures to the Texans last week.

1083
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 3: That's insane.

1084
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 5: Caleb just doesn't have a great feel in the pocket

1085
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 5: yet he's holding onto the ball too long in certain times.

1086
00:55:57,520 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 3: It's getting rid of it overall quickly.

1087
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:01,719
Speaker 5: The short I think they really need Keenan Allen like

1088
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 5: as a security, blanket, possession receiver. So I'm not sure

1089
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 5: if he's going to go this week. Will the Colts

1090
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 5: blitz They've actually been blitzing a little more this year.

1091
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 5: I'm happy to see Chus Bradley in his postgame interview

1092
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 5: said they were talking about the defense, as he said,

1093
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 5: I might have been too cute with my defense.

1094
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 3: What does that mean?

1095
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:22,360
Speaker 5: You have the least cute defense in the league, just

1096
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,840
Speaker 5: running Cover three and mixing to Cover two, passive, static

1097
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 5: defense just like you always had. I don't understand that,

1098
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 5: But I mean the Colts defense has been really bad

1099
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:34,240
Speaker 5: against the run, which was a strength in the past.

1100
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:39,240
Speaker 5: But they have injuries up front to Farrest Buckner out.

1101
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,280
Speaker 5: You know you already Lat two is questionable. You already

1102
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:48,280
Speaker 5: had evycom on ir. They're not fully healthy up front.

1103
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 5: But the Bears can't run the ball. They're running backs

1104
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 5: through two games two point three yards per rush, So

1105
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 5: what gives there?

1106
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1107
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,760
Speaker 5: The Bears defense has been legit. It's a good spot

1108
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:03,439
Speaker 5: for the Colts. You know, going too off a bad

1109
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:06,479
Speaker 5: loss on the road, you know you're you're coming back

1110
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 5: home against the rookie quarterback who's struggling in a bad

1111
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 5: offensive line, you know, which should be allowed environment, but

1112
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 5: the injuries on the defensive end that if Bradley just

1113
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 5: plays his base, basic defense, maybe Williams can have some success.

1114
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 3: I'd lean Colts here, but it's Cults or nothing, but

1115
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 3: I don't feel too strong about it.

1116
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 4: There's also an outside chance that this is the Williams

1117
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 4: breakout game if all his receivers are healthy, because the

1118
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 4: Coats still got issues in the secondary too. Ravens at Dallas.

1119
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 6: Consistency is a Cowboy freight bar. Their success is forged

1120
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 6: by a belief in acquiring outstanding natural athletes then molding

1121
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 6: them in the Cowboys system.

1122
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 4: Ravens are the short favorite minus one on the road.

1123
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 4: This is an interesting one because you got both of

1124
00:57:57,520 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 4: these teams that just kind of shit the bed of

1125
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 4: ast Weete. What do you think of the Ravens in

1126
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 4: this spot?

1127
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the Cowboys just got dominated. The Ravens

1128
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 5: should have won. The Ravens could easily be two and oh,

1129
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 5: but they have some issues. The offensive line is an issue,

1130
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 5: especially the right side. It's funny because Stanley's now actually

1131
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 5: playing really well and look s healthy. The right side

1132
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,920
Speaker 5: is rotating tackle. I don't think they have the right

1133
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 5: guard in there really cost in the game last week.

1134
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 5: They are making some good adjustments, like they got I

1135
00:58:24,040 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 5: said LESTI, they gott to not play Harrison, They got

1136
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 5: to play Simpson more.

1137
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 3: They did that last week.

1138
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 4: But Eddie J.

1139
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 5: Jackson's wash. She can't have him in there. So I

1140
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 5: think you need like Comforty more in the nickel Hamilton

1141
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 5: at safety. They're still trying to figure out how best

1142
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 5: to use Hamilton with this new second group the defensive line.

1143
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 3: So that question was actually playing really well. So I'm

1144
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 3: worried about or.

1145
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 5: That defensive staff I talked about before lost a ton

1146
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:50,920
Speaker 5: of talent. Now I'm not completely riding off or if

1147
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 5: you recall, do you remember when I think it was

1148
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 5: two years ago the Ravens blew like a twenty one,

1149
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 5: twenty eight point lead against the Dolphins in Week two.

1150
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 4: Everyone's on McDonald's right, yeah, and.

1151
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 5: Everyone's like McDonald's got to go, no adjustments. How do

1152
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 5: you let this happen? It's only two games that they

1153
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 5: should be too and now twenty percent win probability swing

1154
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 5: on a third and seventeen pi. I think this is

1155
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 5: a game where the Ravens can get their run game

1156
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 5: going against the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are weak

1157
00:59:16,080 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 5: in that area. You know, Lamar, we talk about a lot.

1158
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 5: It's been dominant against the NFC twenty one. He like

1159
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 5: Mahomes also, you know, as a favorite under a field

1160
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 5: goal or as an underdog, he's amazing. He's twenty two

1161
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 5: and seven against the spread favored of more than a

1162
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 5: field goal, you know, twenty two and thirty three against

1163
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:36,120
Speaker 5: the spread. Like very similar numbers to Mahomes in that aspect.

1164
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 5: I'd expect a more buttoned up Ravens team here that

1165
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 5: That's where I lean the Cowboys. They can't run the

1166
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 5: ball and they're not gonna be able to run it

1167
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 5: against the Ravens. What I worry about is just like

1168
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 5: them coming back again, like the Ravens have blown I

1169
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 5: think eleven double digit leads in second half of the

1170
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 5: past five years. It's just unacceptable. I do have my concerns.

1171
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 5: I think you'll get to really okus staffords from both

1172
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,960
Speaker 5: teams after last week. I do worry about the This

1173
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 5: is shocking to say, but the Ravens special teams is

1174
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 5: now almost a weakness. No one can miss a fitty

1175
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 5: arder except Tucker. He's Tucker's one of seven his last

1176
01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 5: fifty plus field goal attempts. The Raven's punting situation when

1177
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 5: staff continues to be extremely inconsistent. He contributed to that

1178
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 5: meltdown last week.

1179
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 4: Oh my god, Yeah, that's shank.

1180
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 3: Get a shanked punt at the end of the game.

1181
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 5: So advantage special teams to the Cowboys. Usually, it's like,

1182
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 5: that's one of the reasons. That's one of the things

1183
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 5: that I can bank on with the Ravens is like

1184
01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 5: hidden points. That's not the case in this matchup. But

1185
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 5: I lean Baltimore to bounce back here and get their

1186
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:42,080
Speaker 5: first win on the road. But you know, it's the

1187
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 5: line is close to right.

1188
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 4: I have it as like a true pick of because

1189
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 4: I think I would like Baltimore a lot more if

1190
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 4: Gallas Alto wasn't coming off just a horrible offware. Let's

1191
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 4: be honest. Even when they got down early, they missed

1192
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 4: a ton of opportunities. They could have just gotten into

1193
01:00:58,840 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 4: a shootout in New Orleans and Dak was missing throws

1194
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:04,160
Speaker 4: and doing it it was. It was bad. So I

1195
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 4: think I do think you get a focused effort, which

1196
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 4: now you got to worry about, Okay, well, if the

1197
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 4: Cowboys come out strong or you know, did the Ravens.

1198
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:14,800
Speaker 4: Are the Ravens even able to get into their run scripts?

1199
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 4: And and then you also got to come back to yeah,

1200
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 4: this is a stay away from me.

1201
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 5: We talked about the Cowboys are such good front runners,

1202
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 5: and yeah, I just don't see them getting up big

1203
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,120
Speaker 5: in this game and being able to play that role

1204
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:28,439
Speaker 5: in it. So I think the Ravens will be able

1205
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 5: to to run it. And I think this is like

1206
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 5: a spam Lamar run game because you gotta win it.

1207
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 5: You can't go to zero and three, so you're gonna

1208
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 5: see Lamar running all over the field. Lamar a over

1209
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 5: rushing prop.

1210
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 4: I mean, do we know though, because I feel like

1211
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 4: every time we try to think about what's logical for

1212
01:01:47,640 --> 01:01:50,439
Speaker 4: the Ravens to do under Monkin, it's like, oh, yeah,

1213
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 4: we got Derek Henry, Let's let's put Justice field, Justice

1214
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 4: Hill on the field, They're like sixty percent. You know,

1215
01:01:55,800 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 4: It's like there's only something that he throws you for

1216
01:01:58,120 --> 01:01:58,439
Speaker 4: a loop.

1217
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 3: So I don't think I don't think you think it'll be.

1218
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 5: Not even relying on Monken, Like I think Lamar is

1219
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 5: just gonna run more when he needs to and uh

1220
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:13,320
Speaker 5: on you know, non designed druns. I think you're going

1221
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:17,800
Speaker 5: to see a lot more. This is almost a must win, yeah.

1222
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 4: Because the Cowboys do have that win, you know against

1223
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 4: the Browns. So the Ravens are the desperate squad. But

1224
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 4: you'd always prefer like if the Cowboys are riding big

1225
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 4: off two or no, then it would be a no brainer.

1226
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 4: But a little caution just because the Ravens have been

1227
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 4: one of those teams where it's just the menfol is

1228
01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 4: obviously unpredictable, but we do this for a living. I

1229
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 4: feel like the Ravens just have some of these outcomes

1230
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 4: that are just not in the projected range sometimes with

1231
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 4: I mean you mentioned the comebacks just absurd. So uh

1232
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 4: let's close it out with the Lions at the Arizona Cardinals.

1233
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 4: Lions favored by three on a road they obviously came

1234
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 4: in well blow they're expected point total success rate, point differential.

1235
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:02,080
Speaker 4: That good stuff with the one for seven in the

1236
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 4: red zone. I mean a lot of Cardinals and you

1237
01:03:04,920 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 4: warm me about it, so I give you props for that.

1238
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 4: Just throttled the Rams coming into a bad spot with

1239
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 4: getting more.

1240
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 3: Injuries too, you said you can't throw it down field.

1241
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:18,320
Speaker 4: There he goes perfect. He took that very personally. So yeah,

1242
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 4: I mean, now it's a it's a three point spread.

1243
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think. I don't think the Lions

1244
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:27,400
Speaker 4: are as dominant as maybe some people thought when they

1245
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:29,560
Speaker 4: were up two scores in the NFC Championship Game. I

1246
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:31,760
Speaker 4: think it's gonna be a little tougher for them this year.

1247
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:35,800
Speaker 4: But yeah, it worries me that the Carlin's rend defense

1248
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 4: not great. So I don't know, what do you think

1249
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 4: about this one?

1250
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, super high total for today's last say like fifty

1251
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 5: two for what it's worth, Like if you've if you've

1252
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 5: gone against these super high totals for the last two seasons,

1253
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 5: totals of fifty plus or thirteen and two to the under.

1254
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:00,880
Speaker 5: Last three years, thirty and eleve into the under going

1255
01:04:00,920 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 5: under by over five points per game, totals of fifty

1256
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 5: plus under Dan Campbell, ten and five to the under.

1257
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's just you can't do you have a

1258
01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:13,480
Speaker 5: couple of red zone failures, It's tough to get over

1259
01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 5: a number this high. But I don't I don't know

1260
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:18,200
Speaker 5: if I can bet it under the Lion's defense still

1261
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 5: has issues on the back end, and you know, the

1262
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 5: Cardinals defense is really bad. But something is which probably

1263
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 5: I projected at three point two, so stay away from me.

1264
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:37,280
Speaker 5: But something's off of the Lion's offense. I can't so

1265
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 5: I'm on ro gonna play this week. I think he is,

1266
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:44,440
Speaker 5: but that like something to keep They their wide receiver

1267
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:49,640
Speaker 5: depth is not great, so he's obviously critical. So I

1268
01:04:49,640 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 5: can see this being a shootout, but not really interested

1269
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:56,600
Speaker 5: in going over fifty two. Maybe under fifty one would

1270
01:04:56,600 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 5: take a look. But there's something off of the Lions offense,

1271
01:05:00,480 --> 01:05:05,040
Speaker 5: like golf, just doesn't He looks like he's regressed last

1272
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 5: year in the same offense, same offensive line weapons. I

1273
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 5: don't think Ben Johnson has been calling particularly good games.

1274
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on there. It's a small

1275
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:18,360
Speaker 5: sample size, so maybe you see them explode here against

1276
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 5: the bad Cardinals defense, but it just doesn't. The whole

1277
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 5: operation doesn't look great and the Cardinals offense has been humming,

1278
01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 5: So yeah, this is tricky game.

1279
01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the Lions. The issue is it's kind

1280
01:05:36,760 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 4: of like, you know, and the Chiefs were really good

1281
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:42,080
Speaker 4: and then teams kind of adjusted. It's like the Lions.

1282
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:44,440
Speaker 4: You kind of knows what they're trying to do, and

1283
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:46,439
Speaker 4: they just have really good players in a really good

1284
01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 4: line to do it with. But you kind of get

1285
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:54,120
Speaker 4: into these weird situations where you don't really have a

1286
01:05:54,240 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 4: sect like an outside red zone receiver, because you get

1287
01:05:57,720 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 4: in the red zone and now you want to have

1288
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,680
Speaker 4: Gibbs and Garment both on the field, and then you

1289
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:03,919
Speaker 4: want Laporta, and then you want Saint Brown and now

1290
01:06:04,040 --> 01:06:06,160
Speaker 4: and William isn't really that guy either, so it's you

1291
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:08,680
Speaker 4: kind of you're really good at getting these like five

1292
01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 4: to ten yard chunks, and then you get if you

1293
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 4: don't get an explosive into the end zone. I've seen

1294
01:06:14,080 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 4: them just bogged down so many times. And GoF is

1295
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 4: not really that guy that's gonna create or extend a

1296
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:23,600
Speaker 4: play and get you a touchdown in that way. He

1297
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:26,640
Speaker 4: has good pieces around him, so sometimes you can do that,

1298
01:06:26,680 --> 01:06:29,760
Speaker 4: but it's not his forte. So yeah, I've noticed it too,

1299
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 4: and I think they probably need to They probably should

1300
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:34,600
Speaker 4: have addressed that, but that's just kind of the way.

1301
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 4: That's one of the downsides to building what is a

1302
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 4: very good skill skill group and an offense in general.

1303
01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 4: All Right, that's gonna do it. For the Action Network podcast,

1304
01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 4: thank you for listening. You can hear more of me

1305
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 4: every week. But my guy, Sean Kerner Straight Off is

1306
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:54,480
Speaker 4: fourteen to oh a week two talking betting, dfs, fantasy

1307
01:06:54,520 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 4: props and all that good stuff on the Fantasy Flex podcast.

1308
01:06:57,200 --> 01:07:01,480
Speaker 4: And of course Stuck is on Big Bets on Campus

1309
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 4: talking college football, and like I mentioned earlier, check out

1310
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 4: the Get Gout podcast with Beast Mode Marshaun Lynch. Wherever

1311
01:07:10,560 --> 01:07:13,400
Speaker 4: you get your podcast, you can find Stuck on x

1312
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:15,800
Speaker 4: at Stuck You two, I'm at Chris Raybomb were at

1313
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 4: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network app.

1314
01:07:19,920 --> 01:07:22,400
Speaker 4: The next time, Let's get this twenty look go.

1315
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1316
01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:39,520
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1317
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler