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Speaker 1: What's up, guys, How are you happy Monday? Welcome into

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Speaker 1: the latest episode of They'll Just Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Pearolt. I'm your host every single morning wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your audio or your video podcasts here for betting

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Speaker 1: pros in this podcast every morning, being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by your friends at DraftKings. Well, a losing Sunday means

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Speaker 1: a losing week for us here in the second week

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Speaker 1: of December. Kind of a bummer because we went into

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Speaker 1: the day about a down a unit and a half

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Speaker 1: or so. Needed to have a winning Sunday to have

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Speaker 1: a winning week. Didn't happen for me, unfortunately, because we

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Speaker 1: get the long teaser wrong by literally half a point.

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Speaker 1: Washington was teased down to one and a half. If

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Speaker 1: Washington wins that game by two, that game goes to overtime,

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Speaker 1: which at home, don't you play for overtime? I know

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Speaker 1: the Saints have an intim head coach and a third

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Speaker 1: string quarterback, but don't you play for overtime? Kick the

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Speaker 1: extra point, go to overtime. Washington wins that game by

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Speaker 1: three or six, we get this one unit in and

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Speaker 1: we have a flat day, not a losing day, but

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Speaker 1: it would have been a losing week, but that was annoying.

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Speaker 1: The prop beeds go two and oh, Seattle got smoked,

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Speaker 1: but the under came in, so we were good there.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo smoked Detroit pretty much under fifty four and a

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Speaker 1: half got cooked early because both defenses suck and the

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Speaker 1: Bucks destroyed.

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Speaker 2: The chargers to get that one unit. So we go

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Speaker 2: four to three overall.

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Speaker 1: But unfortunately, that four and three win means we're down

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Speaker 1: one unit, meaning we're down about two and a half

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Speaker 1: units for the week. Now, I did go back. I

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Speaker 1: did the math for November to see what happened. So

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Speaker 1: if you remember in September we won. In October, we

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Speaker 1: lost for the month. So November what happened.

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Speaker 2: I won.

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Speaker 1: I was up four point sixty one units for the

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Speaker 1: month of November. But here's the kicker. The last two

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Speaker 1: days of the month of November, I lost basically seven units.

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Speaker 1: I was up eleven and a half units on the

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Speaker 1: month of November going into the final two days of

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Speaker 1: the month, and then I got my teeth kicked down

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Speaker 1: my throat. Looking at that in retrospect, I was like,

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Speaker 1: what the holy heck? I knew we had done well

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Speaker 1: in November. I knew the bank roll was somewhat healthy

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Speaker 1: in November, but I didn't know I was up officially

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Speaker 1: that many units going into the last two days and

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Speaker 1: then got smoked. So overall up four point sixty one units.

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Speaker 1: So winning September, losing October, winning November. We had to

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Speaker 1: December for the fourth month of the football season. We

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Speaker 1: have one month after that with the month of January,

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Speaker 1: and then February is not really a football month, but

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Speaker 1: obviously the Super Bowl in New Orleans will be in February,

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Speaker 1: so but really I consider football being a five month

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Speaker 1: September to January schedule. So winning, losing, winning, Let's see

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Speaker 1: what happens here in December. Not a great week last week.

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Speaker 1: I think we're down a little bit for the month,

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Speaker 1: but I can't remember what we did. I gotta go

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Speaker 1: back and look at the first week of December as

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Speaker 1: to what we did in the first week of December.

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Speaker 1: But a lot of days to go, a lot of

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Speaker 1: football to bet, a lot of games coming in. We

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Speaker 1: have not one, but two Monday night football games, including

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Speaker 1: one here right in Las Vegas involving the Raiders and

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons. Will get to those picks in place

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Speaker 1: coming up next. But before we do that, this podcast

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by DraftKings the Pick six new

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Speaker 1: Pick six customers. You guys play five dollars to get

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Speaker 1: slash chat. I will post that at some point today.

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Speaker 1: If you guys are wanting to do the DraftKings Pick six,

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Speaker 1: I'll give you three.

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Speaker 2: I like to do three. I'll give you three picks

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Speaker 2: that I like.

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Speaker 1: That will run down from a player prop perspective that

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Speaker 1: we'll put together. I do have two player props here

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Speaker 1: for the official plays, but pick sixes are not official.

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Speaker 1: Pick six operates. Pick six is not available everywhere, including

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Speaker 1: but not limited to New York in Canada, void where prohibited.

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Speaker 1: For terms, go to pick six dot DraftKings dot com

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Speaker 1: slash promos. Okay, let's start talking about the first game,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Bears. This is wild. The Bears

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Speaker 1: are playing their third straight road game this week. According

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network since two thousand and three, teams

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Speaker 1: playing their third straight road game are forty five and

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Speaker 1: seventy straight up, and when they are an underdog they

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Speaker 1: are twenty nine and fifty nine straight up.

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Speaker 2: Yikes.

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Speaker 1: So if you want to do moneyline parlays like the

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Speaker 1: Vikings losing. They're the number one pick in the Circus

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Speaker 1: Survivor contest with forty nine entries left for fourteen point

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Speaker 1: two million dollars. Thirteen entries of the forty nine are

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Speaker 1: on the Vikings to win this game here at home

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Speaker 1: against the Bears. It is really hard to see the

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Speaker 1: Vikings losing this game outright. Caleb Williams is getting sacked

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Speaker 1: a ridiculous amount of times. Got sacked seven times last

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Speaker 1: week against forty nine ers. He's been sacked fifty six

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Speaker 1: times on the year. That is the second most for

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Speaker 1: a rookie through fourteen games since David Carr was sacked

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Speaker 1: seventy times back for the Houston Texans, teams allowing seven

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Speaker 1: or more sacks the week prior the next week since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and three, they are ninety eight one, twenty

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Speaker 1: six and six against the spread. Over the last three seasons,

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Speaker 1: it's fifteen to twenty five in one. Sam Donald has

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Speaker 1: been pretty good as a favorite of six points or more.

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Speaker 1: Sam Donald is five and oh straight up in four

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Speaker 1: and one against the number. Four of those five games

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Speaker 1: have come with the Minnesota Vikings. He has closed as

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Speaker 1: a six point favorite or higher in a night game

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Speaker 1: two times in his career. He is two and now

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Speaker 1: ats and two and oh straight up in those games

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Speaker 1: Under Kevin O'Connell. In the regular season, the Vikings have

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Speaker 1: won one score games quite consistently. They're twenty five four

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Speaker 1: to nine straight up in one score games under Kevin O'Connell.

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Speaker 1: But I do not think this is going to be

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Speaker 1: a one score game here. I think this is going

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Speaker 1: to be kind of a laugher. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: touch the side.

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Speaker 2: Excuse me.

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Speaker 1: The total for this game because I think there's a

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Speaker 1: decent shot that the Bears don't score much at all.

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Speaker 1: Like the Bears lost by twenty five points in their

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Speaker 1: last game on the road against San Francisco. They covered

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Speaker 1: against Detroit as ten point dogs, they lost by three,

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Speaker 1: but three straight road games. When you're four and nine,

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Speaker 1: you're one in six on the road. You lost thirty

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Speaker 1: eight thirteen the week before. The offense can't stop, the

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Speaker 1: offensive line cannot protect Kleb Williams. Caleb Williams has not

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Speaker 1: been looking for Roman Dounza at all. I like his

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Speaker 1: under receiving yards for Roman Dunza here he's gone for

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Speaker 1: the last three games forty two, twenty five and thirty nine.

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Speaker 1: His targets are are still pretty high, but he's not

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Speaker 1: getting the completions. And when he is getting the completions,

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Speaker 1: he's only averaging you know, seven point eight, twelve point five,

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Speaker 1: ten point five.

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Speaker 2: I mean on the road against the.

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Speaker 1: Niners, four receptions on five targets for forty two yards.

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Speaker 1: Against the Lions, two receptions on six targets for twenty

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Speaker 1: five yards long of seventeen long of nineteen. This is

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Speaker 1: a not a great secondary for the Vikings, but it's

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Speaker 1: more about the pass rush. It's hard to find Roman

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Speaker 1: Dunsay down the field if you're Caleb Williams when you're

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Speaker 1: basically on your back the entire time. I think Roman

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Speaker 1: Newsday is going to have a tough time of it here.

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Speaker 1: I like under forty three and a half yards receiving

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Speaker 1: from Roman Donsday that for half a unit in the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to lay the seven points with the Vikings here.

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Speaker 1: I think they win going away against the Bears Minnesota

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Speaker 1: minus seven. You can tease this thing down if you want.

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Speaker 1: I just can't really find a teasing partner. I went

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Speaker 1: crazy with teasers yesterday. I ended up going two and

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Speaker 1: four on my own per teasers. So maybe I'm a

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Speaker 1: little gun shy on this and just want to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and just bet one if I'm wrong.

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Speaker 2: I'm wrong, but I'm not in love with it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that Wong teaser killed me yesterday and I

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Speaker 1: couldn't believe it was Everything was perfect, and then Washington

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Speaker 1: just completely fell apart and clump crumbled down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: I thought we were going overtime, and instead they went

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Speaker 1: for two and they missed it, and that was the

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Speaker 1: only way we were.

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Speaker 2: Going to lose that.

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Speaker 1: In my mind, I was like, man, we get to overtime,

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Speaker 1: win by three whatever, but nope, end up losing and

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Speaker 1: winning the game by one. The only thing they could

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Speaker 1: have beaten me with a Washington victory was a one

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Speaker 1: point win, and they got a one point win. So

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Speaker 1: if you want to tease, you know, the Vikings down

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Speaker 1: to minus one, don't mind that at all. I think

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Speaker 1: the Vikings win the game. It'll be a teaser special game.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know what to really aggressively match.

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Speaker 2: It up with.

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Speaker 1: I'm not in love with anything on this, so I'll

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Speaker 1: give you other picks.

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Speaker 2: In the next game.

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Speaker 1: You could say, Matt, why don't you go ahead and

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Speaker 1: do like the Raiders plus six wind just going think

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Speaker 1: the Raiders plus twelve. I don't know, want to pull

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Speaker 1: the you know, Falcons down from six to a pick?

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Speaker 2: Take the Falcons just to win? I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I think I'd just to go straight bets with some

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Speaker 1: of this stuff. So I'm gonna stay away from the

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Speaker 1: teaser angle and just do straight bets here today, Vikings

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Speaker 1: minus seven Roma dunes a Anders receiving yards for the

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Speaker 1: first game.

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Speaker 2: In the second game, where we have got.

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Speaker 1: The Falcons here in Vegas up against the Las Vegas Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins has gone four straight games without throwing a

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Speaker 1: tough touchdown pass eight interceptions in those games in which

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Speaker 1: he's thrown zero touchdown passes. Cousins is the first quarterback

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Speaker 1: to do that in a four game stretch since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and five. It's been a long time to who's

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Speaker 1: seen a quarterback do this? Kirk Cousins indoor games sixteen

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Speaker 1: and thirty one ATS sixteen and thirty one. That's nuts

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Speaker 1: for him. He is seven and seventeen ats over the

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Speaker 1: last three seasons. Cousins since twenty twenty is last among

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Speaker 1: ninety two quarterbacks who play indoors. And this game's on

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Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. Monday Night Football. This is not good Primetime.

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Speaker 1: Cousins forty four starts in primetime, high profile games, night games,

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Speaker 1: playoff games overseas nine twenty four and one straight up

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Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty six against the number at night. He's

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Speaker 1: fifteen and nineteen ats, six and seven ats in primetime

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Speaker 1: over his last thirteen starts. So not horrible, but not

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Speaker 1: great either. On primetime, Kirk Cousins began his career oh

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Speaker 1: to nine straight up and oh to nine against the number.

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Speaker 1: But he has won four of his last five starts

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Speaker 1: straight up and against the spread. But they just simply

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Speaker 1: haven't been playing well. Here's the thing to think for

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Speaker 1: the Raiders. Desmon Ridder is starting. Ritter stinks in the

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Speaker 1: first half. He's great in the second half. Okay, expect

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Speaker 1: you want to bet the Falcons in the first half

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Speaker 1: and the Raiders for the game. I don't mind it, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I think the Raiders probably would be losing at some

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Speaker 1: point in the first half. The Raiders have fallen behind

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Speaker 1: by double digits a million times, like an insane amount

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Speaker 1: of times. So they've been down by ten points in

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Speaker 1: all thirteen of their games this season, the first team

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Speaker 1: to do that since the nineteen eighty six Colts, who

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Speaker 1: did it in sixteen games, all sixteen games. So they'll

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Speaker 1: probably be down ten nothing or something here to start,

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Speaker 1: but then they climb their way back in it and

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Speaker 1: they start to find a way, and they do. Antonio

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Speaker 1: Pierce has coached two night games with the Raiders. He's

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Speaker 1: two and oh straight up and two and oh ats

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Speaker 1: Since two thousand and three, only one head coach was

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Speaker 1: three and oh against the number or better in night games.

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Speaker 1: Dennis Green in two thousand and five and two thousand

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Speaker 1: and six, Pierce is probably coaching next season for the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like they're not going to fire them, but

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Speaker 1: they want to lose the game. They want to play

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Speaker 1: tough and lose the game. But on prime time I

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Speaker 1: find it hard to see the Raiders just completely laying

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Speaker 1: down here. And I think when you have an environment

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Speaker 1: like we're gonna see the number is six here in Vegas,

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Speaker 1: okay plus six. I know Vegas is two and eleven.

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Speaker 1: I know they are one in four straight up at home.

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Speaker 1: I know Atlanta is three and three, but they've lost

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Speaker 1: four four straight games. Something has to give here. I

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Speaker 1: think Vegas plays it to a field goal loss. I'll

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Speaker 1: take the points, give me the six points. Both teams stink.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad we've got two games watching because I don't

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Speaker 1: know if the Falcons score very much here tonight. But

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Speaker 1: a part of me says they're going to a part

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Speaker 1: of me says they're gonna play and score a lot.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet the over.

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Speaker 1: In fact, forty four and a half why Monday night

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Speaker 1: overs have been consistently hitting and I think with two

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Speaker 1: bad defenses in a fast track in dome teams playing,

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Speaker 1: give me somewhat of a high scoring game. Give me

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Speaker 1: a twenty four to twenty one final here for this

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Speaker 1: thing to go at Will over forty five raiders plus

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Speaker 1: six over forty four and a half and to Kobe

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Speaker 1: Myers to go over sixty two and a half receiving.

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Speaker 2: I think Ritter's gonna look to him.

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Speaker 1: He's been the most productive wide out, he's been the

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Speaker 1: guy that they've leaned on here. I think Ridder will

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Speaker 1: look to get him involved. I'll go ahead and jump

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Speaker 1: in here with Ridder for a half a unit mass

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Speaker 1: one twenty to win a half a unit an over

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Speaker 1: sixty two and a half receiving yards. All right, So

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Speaker 1: those are the plays the DraftKings pick six. I'll post

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Speaker 1: it in the Discord channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be some extra prop betting opportunities. If you

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Speaker 2: guys want to go ahead and look at that.

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Speaker 1: You can either bet it or you can do the

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Speaker 1: DraftKings pick six, whichever you would like. I will do

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Speaker 1: that in the Discord channel coming up. So once again

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Speaker 1: the place for today Vikings minus seven Raiders plus six

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Speaker 1: over forty four and a half for the for Raiders Falcons,

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Speaker 1: Jacobe Myers over sixty two and a half yards receiving

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Speaker 1: in Romo Dunza under forty three and a half yards

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Speaker 1: receiving for him. One little extra note on what's happened

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Speaker 1: here for me when it comes to prop betting, it's

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Speaker 1: been a pretty good year prop betting wise in the NFL. Maybe,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, it mightbe my best year of prop

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Speaker 1: betting in the NFL. So I'm fifty seven and forty

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Speaker 1: eight so far here. I'm up over four units betting

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Speaker 1: quarter unit props or half unit props in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: If you had pushed that out and have that be

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Speaker 1: full unit plays, you know, not bad. Up nine ten

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Speaker 1: units on prop bets, more many twelve units on prop

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Speaker 1: bets so far here in the NFL. So if it

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Speaker 1: done well with NFL prop betting, let's hopefully we can

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Speaker 1: continue to do that here today as well. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Parolt. Follow Make Us All Socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt. Every morning It's The Diligence Podcast presented by

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Speaker 1: DraftKings