1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L 6 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: Podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. We 7 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: have this nice Spring two thousand seventeen forecast from Jack Devine, 8 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: who's founding partner and president of the ark And Group. 9 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: It's a very uplifting forecast. I was reading it this 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: morning and learned about things like the fact that North 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: Korea has already over twenty nuclear weapons and its arsenal 12 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: and can fairly quickly may develop a ballistic missile capability 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: to deliver these weapons against our allies, including perhaps US 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: in the United States. Um. Jack Divine is here with 15 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: us to talk about this of lifting forecast, and you're 16 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: talking about the biggest risks ahead for the US economy. 17 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,960 Speaker 1: Let's start with North Korea. How big of a threat 18 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: is this to the US? Well, I think you have 19 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: a rare mix here. You have a um arguably mentally 20 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 1: uh um disturbed president of a country or chairman of 21 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: the country, which which country? Talking North Korea, there's several, 22 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: there's several out there, but they have a nuclear weapon, 23 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 1: which I think puts them in a special category. You know, 24 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: we've been fairly successful in the West preventing the proliferation 25 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons. I remember Jack Kennedy thought we'd have 26 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: a hundred and sixty countries with nuclear weapons. The Brazilians, 27 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: the Argentinees, of South Africans all started nuclear programs and 28 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: then we were able to work it back with two exceptions, 29 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: Pakistan and Umu India. So new North Korea, unstable country 30 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: by anyone's definition and largely unpredictable, now has nuclear weapons 31 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: and has ballistic missiles. And the question is will they 32 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: be able to develop the range in the next few 33 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 1: years to reach certainly the western part of the United States, 34 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: And I think most experts would say certainly they'll be producing. 35 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 1: The latest estimate I saw it was something like eight 36 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 1: to ten nuclear weapons a year going forward. Um India, 37 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: and again these are rough estimates, they're not it's not intelligence, 38 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: but India probably is a hundred and sixty and Pakistan 39 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: has a hundred and sixty. But if you start adding 40 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: eight year to twenty, it doesn't take long to become 41 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: a significant nuclear power in the region. Well, and you 42 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: were talking about Iran also heading towards a similar path, Jack, 43 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: your former acting director of the c i A. And 44 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: so you have a long history in being presented with 45 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: severe and potentially catastrophic risks. Where we are right now 46 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 1: looking at the potential risks ahead. Do you feel more 47 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: worried than you have in the past or is this 48 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 1: on par with the normal risks that you saw as 49 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: the head of the CIA. I think when the Russians 50 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 1: developed nuclear weapons in the post war period, uh, there 51 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: was a great deal concerned about whether we were going 52 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: to go into a confrontation, but it settled down fairly quickly, 53 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: with the exception of um, the Cuban Missile crisis, where 54 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: we actually had nuclear weapons in Cuba, which we didn't 55 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: realize until the nineties that they had some nuclear capability 56 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: back then. The Russians did that close to us, but 57 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: in the larger scheme of things, we had mutual destruction, 58 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: and the Russians, whatever we may think of them, I think, 59 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: behaved in irrational and fairly predictably behavior as we did. 60 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: So the risks while they existed, UH, I don't think 61 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: most people lived and the fear that they did temporarily 62 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: and to say the early fifties. As far as a 63 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: nuclear confrontation, the unpredictability of the North Korea now has 64 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:14,279 Speaker 1: a U is as a new a new situation for US. 65 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: And I think the possibility that they could use a 66 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 1: nuclear weapon. We can't count on the mutual destruction formula 67 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: to stop the North Koreans from using a nuclear weapon. 68 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: So how does trade fit into this? Right? Because it 69 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: does in the sense that US relationship with China and 70 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: with South Korean other UH countries in the region. I mean, 71 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: it wouldn't that play into how this threat is dealt with? Well, 72 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: I think sanctions haven't worked. I think in terms of 73 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: stopping them. I mean, clearly they're going forward. They've tried 74 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,600 Speaker 1: to induce the North Koreans to be more positive at 75 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 1: the table. You know, we withdrew nuclear weapons unilatterly from 76 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: South Korea ninety one. The South Koreans, with our encouragement 77 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: or support, build a industrial city if you will in 78 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: North Korea. The Chinese, We've talked to them often. Countries 79 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: have sanctions in place. None of it seems to be 80 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: touring the the North, the North Koreans. I know a 81 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: lot of experts in Washington and government officials, and uh, 82 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 1: I've read enough about it that many people are counting 83 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: on the Chinese to fix the problem, that somehow they 84 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: have you know, real access and could could muscle the 85 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: North Koreans. I would encourage folks not to be overly 86 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: confident that that's going to happen. The Chinese have their 87 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: own reasons why North Korea, why Korea remains should remain 88 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 1: divided from their perspective, and uh, I think we're going 89 00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: to expend a lot of energy jaw boning with the Chinese, 90 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: and it probably is not going to make much difference. 91 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: And we'll probably be back at the the radio station 92 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: talking next year about the North Koreans having greater missile 93 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: capability and having the thirty to forty nuclear weapons. So 94 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: I'm not optimistic about it. Well, one thing that that 95 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: you did sort of dismiss was this idea that Russia 96 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 1: was in some way conspiring with the current leadership and 97 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: could lead to something very substantial. Is this is this 98 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 1: something that is a clear and present risk in your opinion, 99 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: in any way to the United States. I'm sorry, we're 100 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: talking with Russia. Yeah, with Russia with respect to it's 101 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:47,119 Speaker 1: sort of Yeah. What I said in the forecast, and 102 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: I'm standing by it, is that the allegation that Trump's 103 00:06:54,480 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: campaign or he was monitored for political reasons will turn 104 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: out to be a goose egge, as will the development 105 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: of information that shows conlusion between the campaign, not an individual, 106 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: but the Trump campaign and the Russians to defeat Hillary Clinton. 107 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: I think at the end, you know, we're gonna have 108 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: a lot, a lot of smoke, little fire. Uh, there 109 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: will be no prosecutions, in my opinion, there will be 110 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: no actions taken against the Russians because of it. Um, 111 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: it will be very difficult to understand why we're going 112 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: to spend the next year doing this, and most Americans 113 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: are going to scratch their head. But I do want 114 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: to say the Russian hacking into the system is a 115 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: big issue, but it's not the one that everyone's getting 116 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: fixated about as it relates to the election itself. Uh. 117 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: You know, we used to have what they called Moscow rules, 118 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 1: where the we had the capability of doing lots of things, 119 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: uh nefarious things to them and vice versa. We could, 120 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: for example, counterfeit each other's money, and we didn't do that. 121 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: Jack Devine, thank you so much for joining us. It 122 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: was really a pleasure speaking with you. Jack Devine, former 123 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: acting Director of the CIA CIA and founding partner and 124 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: president of Security for the Arkin Group, talking about his 125 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: Spring two thousand seventeen forecast of risks. Is it time 126 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,439 Speaker 1: to take risk or is it time to take chips 127 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: off the table? Carlistet has some perspective on this, as 128 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: senior portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, managing seventeen billion 129 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 1: dollars more than that in his Western Asset Core Plus 130 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: bond fund. He joins us in our Bloomberg eleven three 131 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: oh studio. Carl, thank you so much for being here. 132 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: I want to start with emerging markets because this has 133 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: been one area that has been surprisingly immune to any 134 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: weakness or hiccups in riskier assets. This year, UH so far, 135 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 1: dollarge denominated US UH dollargennominated marging markets debt has performed 136 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,319 Speaker 1: twice as much as US junk bunds. Do you think 137 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: that this is a signed to sell or or something else. Well, 138 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 1: first of all, you have to remember that emerging markets 139 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: did horribly in two thousand, fifteen and sixteen. So some 140 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,959 Speaker 1: of this is just frankly a catchup. I personally in 141 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: Western nasset things that emerging markets still has more room 142 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: to run. Uh. Certainly not priced at the huge discounts 143 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: they were a year ago. But if you do your 144 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: country selection correctly, we like Latin Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, India. 145 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: We still think there's some outsized returns to come from 146 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 1: emerging market debt. Yesterday on Bloomberg Television, Ed Hyman of 147 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: ever Core Partners came on and said that China is 148 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: a mess and at some point it's going to blow up. 149 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: They have a ton of debt which is unsustainable. So 150 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: you know, China is one of the biggest developing markets 151 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: and if it were to blow up, it would be 152 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: potentially catastrophic for marging markets. How concerned are you about this? Well, 153 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:57,839 Speaker 1: you you have to nail on the head if your 154 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: your view of emerging market must come m a view 155 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,599 Speaker 1: on China. For example, Brazil, over half their exports go 156 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:04,959 Speaker 1: to China, so you have to have a view on 157 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: China first before you make your view of emerging markets. 158 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: Our views that it's not a black hole. Sure, there 159 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: are problems here and there, but it's still growing at 160 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 1: six six and a half percent. Uh, And put that 161 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: in perspective, China is twice as big as it was 162 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: ten years ago. So six percent today is twelve percent 163 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: ten years ago. China adds the g d P of 164 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,679 Speaker 1: the Netherlands to the world every year, but it does 165 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: that with credit. And isn't that concerning that they're sort 166 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: of expanding their leverage by so much. I mean, that's 167 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: sort of I guess at Hyman's point, right, Well, well, 168 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: China is in a very enviable position unlike the rest 169 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: of the developed world. They have a rate structure above zero, 170 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 1: and they have a fiscal surplus. So as they have 171 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,319 Speaker 1: fits and starts, they are changing their economy from a 172 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: more export related to more of a Western consumption economy. 173 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: That's not a straight line. You're gonna get hiccups along 174 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: the road. They have these two tools that we don't have. Alright, 175 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: So you think that developing markets still have room to go, 176 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 1: that China, you know, potentially might see some growing pains, 177 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: but in general is rather benign. No. I mean, I mean, 178 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: we're not without concern, but the red lights aren't flashing Okay, 179 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 1: So moving away from developing markets, just generally, do you 180 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 1: feel like we are in a sort of benign phase 181 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: in the credit cycle in the US and that US 182 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: HIG yield bonds can chug along, investment grade bonds can 183 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: kind of meander in some kind of range, or do 184 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: you think that we could be in for some hiccups. Well, 185 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: this is the big question. Everyone wants to know. Where 186 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: are we in the credit cycle? Where are we in 187 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: the business cycle. We western trying to take a step 188 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: back and look at each industry specifically and look at 189 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,199 Speaker 1: where they fall in that circle. Take energy, for example, 190 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: they just had their recession, right, everything they do is 191 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: to improve the balance sheet, you know, become more credit worthy. 192 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: Banking banking, big banks aren't buying back their stocks, special dividends, 193 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 1: reckless m and A. They're just coming out of their recession. 194 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: But then you go around the circle and you get 195 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: industries like telecommunications, pharma, hospitals that are releveraging the balance sheet. 196 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: There are some scary signs. So we don't pigeonhole the 197 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: entire corporate market at one spot on this circle, but 198 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: really try to pick individual industries. So what is a 199 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 1: pigeon told as being a particularly bad area right now, Well, 200 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,839 Speaker 1: I I do think that telecommunications is in a is 201 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: in a bad spot for the bondholder, releveraging the balance sheets, 202 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 1: some m and a activity that may or not be useful. 203 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: So you're talking like a T N T, even a 204 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: T and T verizing we're definitely short those names, all right, 205 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 1: and uh, what about in the real tail side? Are 206 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: you sorry to do? It may finally be the point 207 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: where you may want to think about it. Um Our, 208 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 1: our high yield analyist has a saying, uh, they are 209 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: burning the furniture to save the store. So you know, 210 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: you have a high yield company selling anything that has 211 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,599 Speaker 1: any value whatsoever, and what's left not a lot. But 212 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: you have to remember that the market has figured this out. 213 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 1: So if you look at the high yield index, it 214 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: yields about five and three quarters the energy subcomponent, which 215 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: gets most of the publicity for being you know, higher yielding, 216 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: six and three quarter. The high yield retail index yields 217 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: almost nine. So at some point we're gonna have some 218 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: value here. So we're actually starting to look at high 219 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,959 Speaker 1: yield retail, all right. So you're you're confident that perhaps 220 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: burning the furniture will be the right way to go 221 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 1: to create value. What about cast allocations? Have you been 222 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: decreasing them and trying to deploy cash given the somewhat 223 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: benign at least economic backdround. Well, what we are what 224 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: I refer to as a value manager, So you have 225 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: to have a fundamental view on the company or their 226 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: interest rate structure, but you also have to be cognizant 227 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: of where the markets pricing that. Security retail is a 228 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: good example of that. I mean, the markets figured out 229 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: that it's it's risking today. Uh, corporate bonds have had 230 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: an amazing run. Both hig yield investment grade spreads are 231 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 1: much tighter than they were six months twelve months ago. 232 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,319 Speaker 1: Our view of the world is relatively benign. But being 233 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: a value manager, we can't like corporate bonds as much 234 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: today as we like them six months and twelve months ago. 235 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: So our client portfolios have been gradually de risking into 236 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,080 Speaker 1: this bowl marketing credit. So real quick, how much as 237 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: cash increased as a as a percentage of you, Well, 238 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: we don't keep cash that's been redeployed in other areas. 239 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: Structured product being one of our favorites. All right, Carl 240 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 1: set thank you so much for joining us. Really terrific 241 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: to speak with you. Carl Etet his senior portfolio management 242 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: manager at Western Asset Management. He manages the more than 243 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: seventeen billion dollar Western Asset Core Plus Bond Fund, and 244 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: he is with us here in our Bloomberg eleven three 245 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: oh studio. But right now, let's check in with former 246 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 1: US Congressman Rick Lazio. He's senior vice president at Alliance Group, 247 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: and uh, former Congressman Lazio has had a great deal 248 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: of experience with congressional note negotiations, including those over taxes. 249 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: So Mr Lazio, I'd love to get your opinion just 250 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: from the outset of what the biggest challenge will be 251 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: for President Trump to push through any tax deal. Well, 252 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: thank you, Lisa. I made. The first thing, of course, 253 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: is that comprehensive tax reform at its most basic level 254 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: is extremely difficult. That's why it only happens once in 255 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: a generation. The last major comprehensive tax reform was signed 256 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 1: into law by President Reagan in six or thirty odd 257 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: years ago. And and why is that? It's because comprehensive 258 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: tax reform has winners and losers, and the losers tend 259 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: to fight harder for the things that they already have 260 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: that they risk losing than the people that have the 261 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: potential to win. I wasn't I'm trying to wrap my 262 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: head around what some of those ideas could be. So, 263 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: can you give us an example of something that uh, 264 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: certain constituents wouldn't want to lose, that would be up 265 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: for grabs, that would be something that they would fight 266 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: hard for sure, The mortgage interest deduction, for example, where 267 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: the realtors and home builders and where they have got 268 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: sort of institutional support in every congressional district in the nation. 269 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: One of the reasons why Paul Ryan and other Republicans 270 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: want to have a bill to the President before the 271 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: August congressional recesses. They don't want members to go home 272 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: and get their brains brains beaten out politically at town 273 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: hall meetings m because of these Washington groups that have 274 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: organized well and are pushing back. They'd rather have the 275 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: vote have taken place, that it's in the past, and 276 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: that they may be some grumbling afterwards, but it doesn't 277 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: create nervousness or weak knees on the part of members 278 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: that they're going to count on for the vote. So, um, 279 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: that's an example of a potential loser in this, meaning 280 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,119 Speaker 1: that that fewer people may be able to take advantage 281 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: of the mortgage interest deduction if it is capped then 282 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: then exists right now. Okay, So that's that's That's clearly 283 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 1: one reason. The second reason, of course, is that that, uh, 284 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump has a different and small smaller political 285 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: base than most past presidents. And then you know, most recently, 286 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 1: of course, the defeat of the Republican healthcare bill, um 287 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: creates even more risk now for tax reform. So expand 288 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 1: on that, I mean, how much of a how much 289 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: damage was done by the failure for the GOP to 290 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 1: get a healthcare bill brought to the floor for a vote? 291 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 1: Is this going to be potentially as damaging as some 292 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: are making it out to be. Yeah, there's a fair 293 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 1: amount of damage across the board here. Uh, there's there's 294 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,719 Speaker 1: damage in terms of the president's credibility as somebody who 295 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 1: has positioned himself as somebody that would take on Washington 296 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: get things done that can do president and and change 297 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: his status quot Number one, that's in question. So he 298 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: has lost some political capital very le on in his term. 299 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 1: Number two, the Republicans in general, both on Capitol Hill 300 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: and with respect to the President, have lost momentum. This 301 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 1: soda sense that you build on things, UH, you build 302 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 1: on wins, and that people members that you count on 303 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:20,479 Speaker 1: lock in UH more tightly when when you have had 304 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 1: a past win and they expect you to win again 305 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: and you want to be part of that. And number three, 306 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: on the technical part of this, UH, the fact is 307 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 1: that the that the Republican healthcare bill would have reduced 308 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: the budget baseline for tax reform by about a trillion 309 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: dollars over ten years, which means that now Republicans have 310 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: to find a trillion dollars more in offsets, meaning to 311 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: close loopholes, reduced deductions, credits, and other preferences, um if 312 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: they want to want their reduction and tax rates to 313 00:18:55,880 --> 00:19:00,040 Speaker 1: be budget neutral. So that puts all kinds of of 314 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: things in play. And compounding this, of course, is that 315 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: there is some question, particularly over on the seventh side 316 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 1: about UH the border adjustment tax concept, which is another 317 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: trillion dollars over ten years, that if that falls out, 318 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: so all that together it creates a lot more headwind 319 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,199 Speaker 1: for tax reform. There are some people and I think 320 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 1: this is a fair comment that that the failure of 321 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: the repeal of Obamacare puts more pressure on Republicans, including 322 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: very conservative Republicans, to come through for tax reform. Um, 323 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 1: but I'm not sure that all sets the negativity that 324 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: I just described. Yeah, it's interesting the idea that because 325 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: there wasn't a replacement for Obamacare, they're gonna have to 326 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: basically budget for it or account for it in their 327 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 1: tax plan. Um. Is there any issue with tax reform 328 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: that is that has bipartisan support that they could start with. Yeah, 329 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 1: it's if if they, If they, you know, you definitely 330 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: want to regain momentum by by building some wind taxes. Uh, 331 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 1: this is a tough area to to build momentum within 332 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 1: because you want to use this reconciliation process. Democrats now 333 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: feel emboldened and are less likely, I think, to come 334 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 1: across right now and help Republicans bail them out of 335 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 1: the whole that they've dug themselves into. There are some 336 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: things like the medical device tax, for example, on healthcare, 337 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 1: whether there was there was democratic support, there is going 338 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: to be democratic support for lowering rates. Uh. My guests 339 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: would be for lowering rates for uh, middle income and 340 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: lower income Americans. Um, there will be some support, my 341 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 1: guests would be for some adjustment in terms of the 342 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: the extra territorial taxes, the trapping capital overseas. I mean, 343 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: even the Senate democratically to Chuck Schumer with Republicans Senter 344 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 1: a Portman have been have been talking last year and 345 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 1: uh and are probably in basic policy agreement about where, 346 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: you know, how we address that issue. So there are 347 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: component pieces, both on the individual side and corporate side. Unfortunately, 348 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: I hate to do this, we have to, we have 349 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 1: to leave it there. Former US Congressman Rick Lazio, senior 350 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: vice president at Alliance Group, talking about tax reform in Congress. 351 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: Katherine Greenfield is here with us. She's healthcare reporter for 352 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and Katherine, you wrote a story that I thought 353 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 1: was fascinating about the challenges that go way beyond what 354 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,239 Speaker 1: the government's healthcare plan will be for these hospitals. Can 355 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 1: you give us just a sense of what some of 356 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 1: these issues are that are plaguing these, uh, these hospitals. Sure, 357 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: so thanks for having me, um so, yeah, definitely. The 358 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 1: general sense after the GOP bill was pulled on Friday 359 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 1: was that hospital stodge to bullet but um, you know, 360 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: issues with Obamacare are still out there for hospitals, UM, 361 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: and maybe investors are realizing that. So, for example, you know, 362 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: you still have the nineteen states that didn't expand Medicaid 363 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: under the a C A UM who are really struggling 364 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 1: with their uncompensated care costs. UM. You know, you still 365 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: have millions of people uninsured. And uh, most hospital chains 366 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 1: are projecting flatt admissions growth for this year, which definitely 367 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: won't help. Yeah, well, I mean zooming back. Healthcare is 368 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: a fascinating area because people say, we don't want to 369 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: lose our hospitals, and yet hospital beds are less and 370 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: less occupied as people get more transactions done at doctor's 371 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: offices and outpatient centers. You had some amazing statistics here 372 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: in your story, but more than two U S county 373 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: still have uninsured rates at or above That is even 374 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 1: with Obamacare. National bed occupancy rates that's how full the 375 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: hospitals are on average any given day are about so 376 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 1: less than half of their beds are filled on any 377 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: given day. That's kind of amazing. UM. And we're gonna 378 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: be speaking later in the program with a Bloomberg intelligence 379 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: analyst talking about how people think that real estate that 380 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,360 Speaker 1: that retail real estate is the biggest hit this year, 381 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,719 Speaker 1: it's actually hospital related real estate because these hospitals are 382 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: at risk of going out of business, Dave. Within the 383 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: hospital sector, has there been a big laggard or is 384 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: there someone who people watch to get a sense of 385 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 1: how this entire industry is going well? I mean, clearly, 386 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 1: if you're talking about the hospital stocks, h c A 387 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: being the biggest company in the industry represents your your 388 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: bell weather, and yesterday was one of the best performers 389 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: in the s the best. Today it's the second worst. 390 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: So you know, it goes to show you things do 391 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: have a way of kind of swinging back and forth. 392 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,119 Speaker 1: I mean, especially after a big day like what we 393 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: saw yesterday. You know, beyond that, I mean, it really 394 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: does become an issue of do you see the concerns 395 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: that are facing the companies that actually are involved in 396 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: this business play out in terms of the real estate 397 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,640 Speaker 1: investment trust that are involved as well. I mean, we've 398 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 1: certainly seen that happening retailing, with the issues of department 399 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: store chains and so on having a carry over to 400 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: the retail roads. So you know, it's a matter of 401 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 1: whether that's sort of daisy chain, you might say, gets 402 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: linked up again. Katherine, some of these anecdotes in your story, 403 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: did you actually travel to Big Bend in Texas to 404 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 1: to look around and see what was going on? Or 405 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: did you did you take a tour of some of 406 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: these hospitals. Yes, so my colleague John Lauerman who shared 407 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 1: a byline with me, he was reporting on Big Bend. Um. 408 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: I talked to Cure, a Health based in Tennessee, which 409 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: owns three hospitals in Alabama. None of what I'm in 410 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 1: Alabama didn't expend Medicaid, so none of those hospitals or 411 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 1: you know, getting those benefits. Um. And that was done 412 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: over the phone. Although I did get invited Alabama and 413 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: I would love to go, so so maybe maybe I'll 414 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: be reporting with us from Alabama. Katherine Grayfield, thank you 415 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: so much for joining us healthcare reporter for Bloomberg News, 416 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: and she's joining us at our Bloomberg eleven three ohs studio. 417 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: And Dave Wilson as always, thank you so much for 418 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 1: joining us Bloomberg Stox columnist and blogger on M Live Go. 419 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: And clearly this just serves to remind everyone, I mean, 420 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: including myself, that we all talk so much about the 421 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: GOP's plan for healthcare and Obamacare, but the problems are 422 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: vast and go far beyond a specific legislative plan and 423 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 1: go to a structural problem within healthcare. Thanks for listening 424 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe 425 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:49,360 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast 426 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm out there on 427 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,679 Speaker 1: Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at 428 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You can always 429 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: catch us World War I on Bloomberg Radio m HM