WEBVTT - Is Kamala Harris Better for American Business? 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:07.480 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.439 This would probably be controversial among my friends in the 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.880 Biden administration, but I think that there's a general perception 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:29.000 that Vice President Harris will be a bit more business friendly. 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:36.080 Welcome back to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.000 This year, voters around the world have the ability to 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:43.400 affect markets, countries, and economies like never before, so we've 0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:45.760 created this series to help you make sense of it all. 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.880 I'm Allegra Stratton, I'm Adrian Wooldridge, and I'm Stephanie Flanders. 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:52.280 So look, we are seven minutes out. 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:57.319 From the seven minutes. 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:03.400 Obviously fail in the first ten seconds. We are seven 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:06.480 weeks out from the US election, and although the outcome 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.240 is no clearer, the end is coming into sites. So 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.319 we're going to continue to unpick what the candidate's financial 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:15.960 and regulatory policies could mean for American businesses. 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:17.759 And one of the things we're going to get into later, 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.399 Adrian and I spoke with one of Wall Street's higher 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:25.280 profile Democrats and ever Core Chairman emeritus, Ralph sch Losty, 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:28.360 one of its founders, just to get an idea of 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:31.200 what the potential ideas could mean for business. You know, 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:35.200 he's sitting in Wall Street, or certainly was sitting in 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:38.479 Wall Street, and has a particular perspective that you might 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:40.640 say was a kind of traditional approach to thinking about 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.280 business and campaigns. You know, how much money are they 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.720 give it putting in what impact of the candidates policies 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:48.880 going to have? But Adrian and I don't know about you, 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:52.240 but I've just been struck. You know, Donald Trump progressively 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:56.560 has so scrambled the way we think about business and 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.480 politics and brought them closer and closer together. And we've 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:03.600 seen that particularly in an increasingly close relationship between him 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.680 and Elon Musk, where Elon Musk is not just giving 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:07.320 him a huge amount of money, but giving him a 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:10.280 platform actively supporting him on Twitter. 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:13.040 Absolutely, there used to be a sort of hands off 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:17.200 relationship between the donor on the one hand and the 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:19.800 candidate on the other. The donor would give some money, 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:22.960 it would go through a lot of intermediaries and there'd 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:24.960 be some sort of space between the two. Now you're 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:28.600 getting a direct intermingling between business on the one hand 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:31.519 and the candidates on the other. Trump obviously did this, 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:35.800 and it's most flagrant with his hotel in Washington that 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:38.360 he encouraged people to go into. But now we're saying 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:42.400 with Musk, Musk is running this business which is ex Twitter. 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.440 That part of the business model seems to be outrage 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:49.240 people to put Trump on there to encourage sort of 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:54.720 active engagement with Twitter through saying Trump Trump leaning things. 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:58.040 So it's an extraordinary sort of commingling, I think. 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.000 And also there's a kickback because if Trump's selective, Musk 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:03.560 is going to be given this role looking at So 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:05.840 there's and I do try not to be too parochial 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.079 and bring it back to the UK. But in the 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:09.640 UK right now we're having every day on the front page, 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:12.359 we've got the Prime Minister and his wife being accused 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:15.919 for taking clothes and money off of Well, money is 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:17.840 not the problem, but clothes and other benefits that they 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:20.440 haven't declared off a donor on the one hand. But 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:22.919 then in America you've got it on a mega mega, 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.600 mega scale and it doesn't not mega but a mega scale, 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.400 And it doesn't seem to there doesn't seem to be 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.160 anybody saying, hold on a second, it's not allowed. 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:33.840 Well except I mean, there's plenty of people amazed at 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:36.720 the kind of conflict of interest that would represent. I mean, remember, 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:40.920 it's not just that it's payback for support in the campaign. 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.720 It would be an ongoing and massive conflict of interest 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:47.760 for Elon Musk to be reinventing government or thinking about 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:50.840 how to reduce government at a time when his own 0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:55.360 company is receiving billions of dollars in government contracts. So 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:59.200 the idea that there are no guardrails against that, I 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:03.200 think is surprise to people in America, where we always 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.000 taught that, you know, there is this written constitution that 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.760 provides checks and balances. They're increasingly getting faded. 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:12.840 If you read the biography of Musk, it's clear that 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:15.760 about eighteen months ago, two years ago, Musk thought Trump 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:17.080 was a loser. 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:21.040 And maybe that's the direct quote. Well, not very long ago, 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:24.200 Donald Trump thought crypto currencies were a scam, and we 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:25.560 now know that he's going to get his own. 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:38.000 Okay, So to talk about that change of heart that 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:40.960 Stephanie just mentioned and how crypto is playing in the 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:44.080 US election, we have in the podcast studio right now 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:48.600 Emily Nicole, who is Bloomberg's crypto reporter. Hi, Emily, Hi, 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:52.839 just explain for us what was launched by Donald Trump 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:56.480 and family this week launched. 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.560 Maybe a bit of a generous term, actually more like 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:02.560 a veiled to a certain extent. So earlier this week, 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:05.880 Donald Trump went on an X spaces I guess you'd 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.520 call it now, where he spoke for about two hours 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.360 along with other members of the Trump family about the 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:14.120 project that they intend to launch called World Liberty Financial. 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:18.560 We still don't really know what it is, except for 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:19.960 the fact that it's going to be in the world 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:23.480 of decentralized finance, which means that there will be some 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.560 loose form of governance by the people and the community 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:29.080 that are buying into it rather than by the people 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:31.800 running it, and that there will be a token attached 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:34.640 to it for that purpose which people can buy to 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:36.760 use to vote on proposals on how it's run, but 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:38.840 also probably speculate with as well. 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:42.520 So for an expert like yourself, does it look promising 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:44.040 or does it look a bit odd? 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.520 It looks light on details. I think it's probably not 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:52.320 the first crypto enterprise that's been a bit light onto. 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:55.160 Yeah, exactly, but it's probably the most high profile one 0:05:55.160 --> 0:06:00.000 that we've had so far. I mean, for a respective 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:04.560 of president to be launching something like this. It definitely 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.080 is in that gray area of we don't know exactly 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:11.240 where it sits between business interests, financial interests, how much 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:13.520 he might stand to profit from it or benefit from it. 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:16.479 There is a disclaimer on the project that says Trump 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:19.279 or his family members, none of them will benefit financially 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.200 from it. But you know, that's assuming that the token 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.599 itself isn't going to be something that can appreciate in value. 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:29.400 Obviously it will, so whether or not that actually bears 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:31.720 out to be the case is something to be. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.880 Seen, Adrian, I mean, before we get onto talking to 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.520 Emily about the crypto in the election, just sort of 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:41.799 on the principle of a presidential candidate launching or unveiling, 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:43.920 to use Emily's phrase, unveiling something like this. 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:45.800 Would we see that in the UK though. 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:48.960 I can't conceivably imagine it. It's not just that there 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:52.320 that he's unveiling this. This thing is a presidential candidate. 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.960 He's doing it seven weeks before the election on a 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:59.840 platform provided by one of his biggest backers, Elon m 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:01.680 It's quite extraordinary, and. 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.160 It's also the intermingling with the family. The family are 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:08.719 ever presently and the business interests continue with the family. 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:13.520 And I noticed even in our story that the white 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:15.960 paper for well, it sounds like white paper is also 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.400 a sort of a generous phrase. But the World Liberty 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.600 Financial reviewed by Bloomberg News and that listed Donald Trump 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:26.480 as chief Crypto Advocate, Eric and Donald Junior each as 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:30.600 Web three ambassadors, and eighteen year old Baron Trump as 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:35.920 Chief DEFY Visionary. I guess we should. I mean DeFi 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:41.400 is a sort of particular bit of the crypto universe 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:44.240 which is even considered a little bit fringe even by 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.760 some of the crypto people. Is that right Somewhat? Yes? 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:50.800 I mean, if you're kind of the yeah, who would 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:53.000 buy bitcoin or ether because you think it might be 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.360 a bit of an investment, than Defy is certainly fringe 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:58.240 to you the crypto traders. Though It's kind of the 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.440 bread and butter of how things work, because it's often 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.320 the way that you get to experiment with new tokens, 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:06.400 new projects and things before they can get vetted properly 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.120 to be on the big exchanges like Finance or coinbase. 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:13.960 For Trump, and in this project, the purpose of it 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.560 being in DeFi is quite important because it means that 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:19.320 they can have this claim to not really have any 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.720 control or say over how it operates. Defy itself as 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:26.280 a construct is imagine a project that's basically just a 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:29.720 whole run of code and smart contracts that kind of 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:32.640 execute when certain conditions are met, and nobody can intervene 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.560 once they're written. So the idea is that people who 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.640 hold this token that's touched the project can use that 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:40.679 bit of token that they own to say, Okay, well 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:42.880 I vote this way, and somebody with more tokens can 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:46.160 vote another way, and in that way, the Trump family 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.800 themselves can say, well, really, I don't have any say 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:50.680 about how this goes because all the token holders are 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:54.320 voting whichever way. That doesn't necessarily mean they don't benefit 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:56.720 financially from it, though, especially if token does trade in 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:58.840 open markets, which it should do in time. 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:03.120 I mean, there is this a bit of the sort 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:06.520 of demographic that Trump is really going for, which is 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:12.000 the sort of countercultural younger skeptical of government. And this 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:14.280 is right. Even if they don't make any money on this, 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.040 it does sort of send that message that I'm all 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:20.240 about sort of somewhat, you know, it's getting away from 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:25.640 the mainstream financial system. Libertarianism, I mean, that's part of 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:26.240 the messaging. 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:28.800 Yeah, all of those things are kind of at the 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:30.840 heart of crypto, and so a lot of the traders 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:33.600 who sit within crypto are at least you know, hardcore, 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.280 day to day, live and breathe it very much sit 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:38.959 on that side. But then you have to wonder if 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.240 that they would have been Trump voters anyway to a 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:44.800 certain extent. And so Trump has made repeated over to 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.560 the crypto industry this year to say that he wants 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:49.400 to be part of it, he wants to create rules 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:51.959 for it, he wants to get rid of sec chair 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.439 Gary Guns are on day one because Gary Guns that 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:57.920 has been launching several enforcement actions against scripto companies over 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.480 the last few years that the industry is seeves as 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:04.160 overly harsh. But you know, saying all of that was 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:09.040 probably enough because by comparison, his competitor Kamala Harris hasn't 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:10.559 really said anything on crypto. 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.800 I mean, when it comes to the sort of directly 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.800 benefiting financially from the campaign, we had that you know, 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:23.000 Trump Media ipo. In April Origin it was valued at 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.360 nine billion. I think it's now less than half that 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:27.719 he could still potentially make two billion and people are 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:30.160 literally trading him and it's been going down pretty steadily, 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.480 certainly since Biden got out of the race. If people 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:34.640 end up trading on this platform, which is very much 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:39.000 associated with him, if they're speculating on Trump media stocks 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:41.319 based on whether or not they think he's going to win, 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:43.160 and then they end up losing a lot of money, 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.040 I mean, it isn't done that back fire on him 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:46.680 in the end, or does it not matter because he's lost? 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.240 And it depends how much he can distance himself from it. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.160 I mean the ability to be able to say, well, 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:53.320 you know, we don't earn any money from this, I'm 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:56.200 just an advisor, or I sit on the periphery. I'm 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.520 just promoting it, but my family are really more involved 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:00.319 these kind of things. There's always a way from to 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:03.600 distance himself. That said, we did do a story my 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:08.400 colleagues Zeker Fox and Miashen early this month about the 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:11.800 people behind the project who are building it. And they've 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:16.120 previously built projects that have been subject to hacks, They've 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.679 done get rich quick schemes, they've sold colon cleanses online. 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.720 You know, it's not necessarily the kind of business business 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:26.680 that you think would be solid footing, so looking ahead 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:29.480 to what world liberty might look like. I mean, there's 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:31.560 always a chance, for example, that they don't launch this 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.160 before the election happens, and so he's able to kind 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.160 of say that, well, you know, nothing infringed upon the 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.920 voting process in a certain sense, but once it goes live, 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:43.480 there's nothing to say. I guess that he couldn't still 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:46.120 sit on those edges without having all his fingers in. 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:47.760 I guess this is all part of why it must 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:51.560 be interesting day to day to be a Bloomberg crypto reporter. 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:54.640 Thank you very much, Sheery, Thank you my top fact. 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:56.600 I was looking up while we were talking that Trump 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.120 Media's revenue is equivalent and I have to admit this 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.600 is according to Roy, but it is equivalent to two 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.240 Starbucks coffee shops, and strategists say it's three point six 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.520 billion stock market value is detached from its day to 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:10.760 day business, since it lost just UNDERD nine hundred thousand 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.040 dollars in its most reported quarter. I love that it's 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.800 worth several billion dollars and its revenue is the same 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:28.240 as two star coffee shops. We have our guest this week, Adrian, 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.479 and I spoke with one of Wall Street's higher profile Democrats. 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:35.319 A few days ago, Ralph schlostein chairman emeritus at Evercourt, 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:39.120 which is a global investment banking advisory business, and I 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.440 started by asking him, at this late stage in the campaign, 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:44.839 was it really going to come down to who had 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:45.600 the most money? 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.720 I think the answer to that is how much does 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:55.480 the relative net worth of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett? Matter? 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:57.760 Both of them have more money than they need. 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.920 They don't have instant access to massive social media. 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:07.080 Platform and I would say both campaigns have more than 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:17.200 enough money to promote their candidate, and the differential in money, 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.679 which at least at the current moment, seems to favor 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:24.440 Vice President Harris, is not going to be the determining 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.080 factor in this election. 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.600 Can you give us a general sense of how corporate 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:33.640 America business America is seeing and splitting over this debate. 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:37.160 Are there any clear lines of difference between different business 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:41.400 groupings and is it changing? Is that as the election evolves. 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.880 This would probably be controversial among my friends in the 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:51.560 Biden administration, but I think that there's a general perception 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:56.720 that Vice President Harris will be a bit more business friendly. 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:02.320 Large technology and corporate business friendly, and I think some 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:06.080 of that is a function of her background and where 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:10.280 she comes from. She's represented in the Senate many of 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:16.080 these large technology companies, obviously Silicon Valley is in California, 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:20.040 and she's got a long history of interacting with them, 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.800 being supported by them, and having i think some empathy 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:28.400 to the issues that might be of interest to them. 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.600 And that's not to say that President Biden has been 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:35.080 hostile toward business, but he's just he's got less of 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:39.880 a background and an empathy toward that, and he's got 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.640 a very strong background in foreign policy and that's been 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:47.040 a big focus of his I think her agenda is 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:53.400 very focused on two things. Growth for the overall economy, 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:57.480 which I think is really important, as there is something 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:02.640 to be said for this long around quote of the 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.080 rising tide lifting all ships. And then she's also i 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:10.000 think very focused on moving a little bit more of 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:14.640 the benefits of public policy to the middle class. Her 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:20.920 housing plan, her childcare plan, her child credit, tax credit, 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.160 capping drug prices, and the fact, you know there's going 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:30.840 to be a massive discussion next year about what do 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.880 we do with the Trump tax cuts. They all expire 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:37.360 at the end of twenty twenty five, and there's a 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.440 probably the biggest difference between the two candidates, which neither 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:44.080 of them talks particularly a lot about, is what their 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:47.240 view is of what should happen to that next year. 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.000 Against that, I just want to say that surely we're 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:54.400 seeing business fleeing from California as a significant rate, and 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:58.120 middle class people fleeing from California as a significant rate, 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.120 because it's hard for middle class people to make ends meet, 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.400 and businesses feel that the burden of regulation is an 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.960 intrusiveness of regulation is very high. If I was looking 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:09.760 at California, I wouldn't say that that's the sort of 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.000 place I wanted to do business these days. 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.120 Oh, it has a lot of things going for it too. 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:18.760 It has an incredibly educated labor force, and it's been, 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:24.120 you know, until relatively recently, a you know, an engine 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:29.240 of demographic growth for the United States. So you know, 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:36.520 there certainly are highly publicized, occasionally controversial figures like Elon 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:41.480 Musk who make very strong statements about the friendliness of 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:46.800 the California business climate. And I do think as a 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:52.640 general matter, the Democratic Party has been a little bit 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:59.000 excessive in its regulatory exuberance, and that's true at the 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.840 national level, and it's certainly true in the states that 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:07.800 where you have one party rule, one of which I 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:08.159 live in. 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.600 I'm interested. There's been quite a lot of talk. You 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.720 actually just mentioned it. There about three quite unpopular characters 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.240 in large parts of the business community that are currently 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:23.120 in the administration, Lena Khan and Gary Gainsler, the head 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.520 of the leader Khan being a Federal Trade Commission head, 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.440 and the Security and Exchange Commission head Gary against Leni 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:35.119 Khan in particular has distinguished herself for a sort of 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:39.960 pro competitive, quite aggressive approach to at least a starting 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.920 to regulate big tech companies and others. Then more generally, 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.280 I would say, there's a sort of interesting dividing line 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.680 between right and left in large parts of the world now, 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:54.639 where it's actually the left of the progressive side that 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.760 is talking more. I don't know if they've done a 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:00.119 lot more, but talking a lot more about competition and 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:05.080 worried about concentration of corporate power. I Nikan is a 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:08.280 sort of symbolic figure for many people and the more 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.159 progressive side of Democrats, because she has been considered to 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:15.720 be quite radical. Kamala Harras worry about that whether or 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:17.320 not she gets reappointed, is that going to be a 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:17.879 key issue. 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:23.639 A very high quality news organization, Bloomberg that wrote a 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:28.280 story about how donors and supporters of Kamala Harris were 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:34.840 suggesting that their support or donations should be conditioned upon 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:38.479 the removal of her, and I wasn't quoted in that story, 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.359 but I was called about it, and I said that 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:47.159 I thought that was highly premature and ridiculous. Other than that, 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:53.720 completely true and the reason I do believe that, first 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:57.160 of all, you had anti trust policy and competition policy. 0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:03.800 There hasn't been a single change in law since probably 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:08.760 two thousand or earlier. I said in twenty seventeen that 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.280 I thought one of the most difficult professional jobs in 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:16.479 America under President Trump was to be an anti trust lawyer, 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:20.919 because the law didn't really matter. It was whether he 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:25.240 liked you or not. So he went after the Time 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:29.560 Warner Att merger because he hated CNN, and of course 0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:33.600 they got thrown out in court. We had an experience 0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:38.480 where we had a merger held at Evercore held up 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:42.320 under Syphius, which was, by the way, a merger of 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:45.920 two US companies had nothing to do with Syphius. 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.119 Syphius is the American law that is used just to 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:53.360 prevent foreign companies from taking big stakes of US company. 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:56.879 Yes, buying US companies. So this was two American companies 0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:59.159 and it was held up for a long time, and 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:03.960 then one of the companies decided to redomicile one of 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:07.960 their headquarters back into the United States and lo and 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:12.159 behold a week later the merger got approved. Nothing to 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:16.600 do with law, I think the current group and Lena 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:18.680 Khan is the tip of the spear there, but the 0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:24.239 Assistant Attorney General for Anti Trust is certainly part of 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:29.199 that as well Kaplan. They've been definitely more aggressive in 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:33.119 their interpretation of the law. They've gone to court a 0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:37.679 number of times and lost, they've won a couple And 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:40.400 so we spend a lot of time at Evercore with 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:43.160 companies talking about mergers, and this is always a part 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:46.680 of the discussion. And I would say the prevailing view 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:51.959 among larger companies today is if we believe the laws 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:54.439 on our side, we may be challenged, but we'll go 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:58.560 to court and we'll win. I do think my guess 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:02.760 would be that there would be a somewhat moderated view 0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:06.960 of that particular of the FTC and the assistant Attorney 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:11.840 General for Andy Trust under Vice President Harris, with her 0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:16.760 legal background and sensitivity to some of the issues that 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:19.960 business cares about, might care a little bit more about 0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:23.879 how those particular roles are executed. 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:30.080 There are some who say that it potentially more influential 0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:33.960 than you would think. Point of disagreement between Trump and 0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:38.480 Harris as asked you to crypto because it is gaining 0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:43.760 so many Ficinado's, particularly in kind of demographics that Kamala 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:46.560 Harris is trying to attract. And Trump has changed his 0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.920 view on crypto but has now been pretty positive about it. 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.520 We think that's partly why Elon Mosque is so supportive 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:55.040 of him, whereas Gary Goesler stands for a much more 0:21:55.600 --> 0:21:59.639 circumspect and potentially negative approach. Do you think that is 0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:01.719 we are underestimating how much that masses. 0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:05.959 I would say it to me, it's a fringe issue, 0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:12.320 not a central issue. I think the change on President 0:22:12.320 --> 0:22:17.840 Trump's part has been definitely linked in a pretty material 0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:22.959 way to the contributions that have been made. There's an 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.600 interest group out there that has a pack that is 0:22:25.680 --> 0:22:29.760 giving tens of millions of not hundreds of millions of 0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:37.200 dollars in this election cycle to crypto friendly candidates, including 0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:39.000 former President Trump. 0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:42.560 But you're sitting in a mainstream Wall Street maybe you'd 0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:43.200 always say. 0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:46.800 That I must say, I'm in the world that things 0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:51.919 are not probably a complete paleoanthic erea troglodite. I have 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:56.679 said in the past that to me, the valuation of 0:22:56.920 --> 0:23:01.600 bitcoin reminded me of the beanie baby create But I 0:23:01.600 --> 0:23:06.320 think that's turned out to be and not necessarily correct view. 0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:10.520 And I think it remains to be seen whether there 0:23:10.520 --> 0:23:18.359 are any mainstream uses of these electronic monetary vehicles other 0:23:18.440 --> 0:23:21.200 than a store of value and speculation. 0:23:21.720 --> 0:23:23.640 I want you to ask about something else, which is 0:23:23.800 --> 0:23:27.320 what might be briefly called woke capital, or the passion 0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:31.760 for micro intervention in the way that businesses run themselves 0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:37.320 THROUGHDI and ESD and the rest of it. Is Vice 0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:40.400 President Harris an advocate of that, and if she is, 0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:41.640 is that a problem for business? 0:23:42.080 --> 0:23:48.280 I think the I'm very passionate about the objectives of 0:23:48.359 --> 0:23:51.560 some of that. I think they're really good business reasons 0:23:51.600 --> 0:23:54.960 to have a diverse workforce, and I can articulate those 0:23:55.000 --> 0:24:00.400