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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree?

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Speaker 1: I know, five dollars? This is a regular level. How

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Speaker 1: many tackle pit one?

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Speaker 2: Man?

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Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life.

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Speaker 2: Bearable, humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 1: My goodness, that's good.

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Speaker 2: I suppose it's the best, relentless refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, baby.

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Speaker 2: Let's welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast presented by Prize Picks.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond here with my guy Sean Kerner,

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Speaker 2: and today is our weekly Prop episode, debut of a

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Speaker 2: new new format for.

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Speaker 1: Us this week, Sean, I'm excited. Yeah, I love it.

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Speaker 3: And you know they have props out looks like Monday morning,

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Speaker 3: so I'm excited to be able to dive into props

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Speaker 3: earlier in the week and then you know, give you

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Speaker 3: our best bets on Fridays and.

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Speaker 1: Pump for us. Yeah damn.

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Speaker 2: Now, not even any sleep on Monday on Sunday nights.

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Speaker 2: I used to knock out and go in a little

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Speaker 2: hybridation on Sunday nights because that would be so dead.

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Speaker 2: I would usually stay up all night Saturday. But now

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Speaker 2: I feel like it's going to be whoo. It's gonna

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Speaker 2: be crazy with props out on a Monday. So I'm

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Speaker 2: looking forward to it though. Shouts to Prize Picks, our sponsors,

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Speaker 2: and let's get right into it.

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Speaker 1: The format of the show. It's gonna come out every week.

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Speaker 2: So we're coming out with this episode every Friday, and

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Speaker 2: the purpose is to just highlight a bunch of our

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Speaker 2: favorite prop bets player prop bets.

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Speaker 1: For the weekend, and.

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Speaker 2: We'll use Prize Picks lines obviously, lines moved, so we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about, you know, the number we bet it down

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Speaker 2: to and all that good stuff.

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Speaker 1: We'll do one quarterback prop, to running back.

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Speaker 2: Props, two receiving props each every week, so that's ten

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Speaker 2: props for you guys. I won'll give you some best

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Speaker 2: bets at the end as well. So Sean, start us off.

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Speaker 2: Who's your quarterback prop for Week one of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one NFL season?

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Speaker 3: All right, of course, I'm gonna kick it off with

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Speaker 3: the Jalen Hurts prop. I'm going over forty and a

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Speaker 3: half rushing yards against the Falcons. I'm projecting this closer

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Speaker 3: to forty six. You know, this is a great matchup

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Speaker 3: for him, to kickoff this season. New defensive Cornary Dnps

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Speaker 3: loves the blitz and Jalen Hurts absolutely torched teams when

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Speaker 3: they tried to blitz them last year, albeit a small

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Speaker 3: sample size, so I think if anything's going to force

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Speaker 3: him to roll out, scramble, rack up these rushing yards.

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Speaker 3: And in his four starts last year, I mean he

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Speaker 3: rushed for one hundred and six yards, sixty three yards,

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Speaker 3: fifty nine yards, and then thirty four yards, So even

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Speaker 3: the one under he hit, he was almost at this number.

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Speaker 3: So I think he has a very high floor when

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Speaker 3: it comes to rushing yards. That's why I love this over.

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Speaker 3: I would pick this probably up to forty four and

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Speaker 3: a half, so there is a little bit of room here.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to rushing yards.

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Speaker 3: Every yard is valuable, so that's why I think just

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Speaker 3: the five yards of value that I'm showing here is

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Speaker 3: super valuable.

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Speaker 1: So I love this pick. Yeah, I think that that's

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Speaker 1: a good call there. Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: The Eagles Little Tea's are for our Action Network Fantasy podcast,

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Speaker 2: which you can go check out.

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Speaker 1: Of course, it's with Stucky and I.

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Speaker 2: The Eagles were one of my six pack picks and

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Speaker 2: Stucky's moneyline underdog pick, so lou of love for the

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Speaker 2: Eagles this week, and I think Jaymon Hurts has a

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Speaker 2: big game, so like that one there. For my quarterback prop,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with Teddy Bridgewater under two hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: seven and a half passing yards on prize picks, and

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Speaker 2: I have this around two forty, but I think the

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Speaker 2: floor is even lower than that, And the reason being

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Speaker 2: is this Giants team, they were a big under team

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Speaker 2: last year three and thirteen toward the over, so I

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Speaker 2: don't expect their offense, the Giants offense to do much

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Speaker 2: and therefore I don't expect Bridgewater I have to do

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Speaker 2: much through the air.

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Speaker 1: You also have this Giants defense.

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Speaker 2: One of the best being one that the Broncos have

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Speaker 2: to throw it around the Giants. Last year they they

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Speaker 2: have allowed on average about you know, two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty some yards, but they were under this number in

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Speaker 2: nine of sixteen games on defense and then yard and

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to be one of those

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Speaker 2: situations because passing yards it's not always just.

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Speaker 1: A quarterback skill.

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Speaker 2: You know, a lot of times it just comes down

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Speaker 2: a game script, and I just don't see the game

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Speaker 2: script here, and the Broncos last year they averaged only

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Speaker 2: two hundred and forty four yards passing per game in

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Speaker 2: non Kendall Hinton games, So that's only that's already under

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Speaker 2: this number, and median for quarterbacks is still usually a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower than the average.

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Speaker 1: Even so, I like this prop.

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Speaker 2: I think that it should I would vet it down

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Speaker 2: to forty to forty and a half for Teddy Bridgewater.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you there.

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting this closer to two thirty eight. But like

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Speaker 3: you said, even if you like, like you know, the

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Speaker 3: potential game script or other variables that might not be

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Speaker 3: indicated in the number, it gives you even more reason

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Speaker 3: to take a prop. So, yeah, I only have you

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Speaker 3: know about seven yard difference here, but I'm with you

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Speaker 3: on kind of this game flow really being favoring the

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Speaker 3: under here, yep.

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Speaker 2: And for quarterbacks, you know, we've kind of talked about

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Speaker 2: it all air, but passing yards you're never gonna get,

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Speaker 2: like I think, a screaming value because you know, seven

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Speaker 2: yards for example, which it sounds like both of us

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Speaker 2: are kind of below. That's like a whole past attempt,

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Speaker 2: which is pretty valuable in you know, anytime you can

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Speaker 2: get a pass attempt or more of value on a

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Speaker 2: prop that you're differing from, its pretty good value. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Bridgewater under you got the Hurts over. Let's go to

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Speaker 2: your first running back prop.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going with Antonio Gibson over fifty seven and

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Speaker 3: a half rushing yards. They're at home against the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: I know you and I both love taking Washington here

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Speaker 3: as pretty much a pick, so I think this could

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Speaker 3: be a positive game script for Gibson. And we have

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Speaker 3: to remember last season he was still learning the position.

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Speaker 3: He's a converted wide receiver, and he's still managed to

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Speaker 3: look pretty polished as a running back last season. But

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Speaker 3: this season he's putting a ton of work and even

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Speaker 3: the coaching staff has said it's a night and day difference.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he looks like a legit running back. So

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Speaker 3: I'm really excited about Gibson this year and bullish on him.

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Speaker 3: That's why I think out of the gate, I want

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Speaker 3: to be attacking his over on his rushing props. So

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Speaker 3: that's why I think fifty seven and a half is

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Speaker 3: a bit too low. I'm projecting this culture to sixty

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Speaker 3: five and a half. I would take this probably up

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Speaker 3: to sixty two and a half, but I think we

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Speaker 3: want to buy in on Gibson early in the season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have it right around the same.

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Speaker 2: I have the average, the mean projection at seventy one,

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Speaker 2: and the median right about sixty six. So I'm tight

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Speaker 2: in line with that projection. I think it's I think

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Speaker 2: it's a few couple attempts too low there for Antonio

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Speaker 2: Gibson and for me my first rushing prop. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: stay in the same game and go with Austin Ekler

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Speaker 2: under fifty one and a half rushing yards. And we

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Speaker 2: know Eckler is a little bit banged up with his

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Speaker 2: hamstring injury.

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Speaker 1: I think he'll play.

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Speaker 2: Hamstring injury shouldn't have a huge effect, but this is

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Speaker 2: a tough Washington front seven.

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Speaker 1: This is a situation where I think the Chargers are.

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Speaker 2: A little bit overrated in the market, so we may

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Speaker 2: be underrating how much they'll have to pass in this game.

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Speaker 2: And I just don't know Ekler sees enough work, especially

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Speaker 2: after not practicing and being a little banged up with

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Speaker 2: the against a tough defense, to get over this number.

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Speaker 2: So I have Ekwer closer to forty yards. So I'm

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Speaker 2: about a couple of attempts under this number, so I

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Speaker 2: would take it down to about forty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think Ekwaer is a guy who we want to

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Speaker 2: be careful with, especially in the run game because you

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Speaker 2: do have all those other backs for the Chargers and

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Speaker 2: ekwork could be where ecwa could kind of see his

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Speaker 2: main role be in the receiving game if if they

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Speaker 2: if he's even a little banged up. So I think

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of outs here for this under. So

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Speaker 2: Austin Ekwer under fifty one and a half at Prize Picks.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I locked this one in when it was fifty

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Speaker 3: seven and a half and that was before we even

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Speaker 3: knew he was dealing with this injury, so you know,

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Speaker 3: I love it even more now. And like you said

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Speaker 3: that the floor on him is super low. Forty is

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Speaker 3: a pretty low projection, so I think that they're going

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Speaker 3: to need him in the passing game anyway, so they

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Speaker 3: might just use a little bit more justin Jackson Joshua

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Speaker 3: Kelly to kind of eat into those carries just to

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Speaker 3: keep Eckler fresh.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I love this under as well. All right,

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Speaker 1: who we got for the second running back prop?

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Speaker 3: My second prop is Philip Lindsay under thirty nine and

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Speaker 3: a half rushing yards. I like taking advantage of advantage

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Speaker 3: of this Houston Texans dumpster fire of a running back situation.

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Speaker 3: It's not that like any of the running backs are bad.

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Speaker 3: If anything, they have too good of a running back

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Speaker 3: depth chart for such a bad team. So right now,

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Speaker 3: you know Philip Lindsay is the starting running back for

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Speaker 3: the Texans Week one, but you still have David Johnson there,

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Speaker 3: you have mark Ingram, even Rex Burkhead might chippen a

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Speaker 3: carry or two. So in a situation like this, I

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Speaker 3: think this the floor on every player is lower than

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Speaker 3: people realize. So I like taking you know, the highest

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Speaker 3: prop on the board, which is Lindsay here. You know

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Speaker 3: he could leave the team with carries, but that might

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Speaker 3: even be just eight or nine touches. And you know,

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Speaker 3: whenever you have a bad team that has a three

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Speaker 3: way running back committee, you want to take the under.

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Speaker 3: So that's why I'm going the under here. I'm projecting

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Speaker 3: this closer to thirty two and a half, so I

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Speaker 3: would I would probably take it down to thirty five

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Speaker 3: and a half either way. He just has a really

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Speaker 3: low floor heading into week one.

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Speaker 2: It almost seems like a bet on will Windsy get

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Speaker 2: to double digit touches or double digit carries. So if

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Speaker 2: he gets under that, I think you have a pretty

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Speaker 2: good chance of going under. I have no idea how

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Speaker 2: this Houston backfield is gonna shape up, but I have

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Speaker 2: Lindsay at eight point eight carries, so he's under forty

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Speaker 2: yards for me as well, So yeah, I'm.

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Speaker 1: In line there.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to my second running back prop, and it's

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Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor under eighty one and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: I think the median should be closer to seventy. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Taylor is a talented back. He should see a decent

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Speaker 2: amount of work. With Carson Wentz still making his way back,

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Speaker 2: you know, didn't practice much. You know, the old line

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Speaker 2: didn't practice much. The receivers t wise out. So I

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Speaker 2: think they are gonna win on a run game. But

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Speaker 2: Seattle was number seven in run defense DVA a year ago,

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Speaker 2: and this coach team, I just I don't know if

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be able with Seattle kind of knowing what's coming.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they're gonna be able to get

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Speaker 2: a lot of run lanes in Week one here Seattle

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Speaker 2: is a very good run defense, and they're gonna I'm

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Speaker 2: pretty sure the defensive scheme is going to be Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's sit on the run. You know, they usually play

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Speaker 2: that single high safety, so they'll have another another guy

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Speaker 2: at the line of scrimmage, and I think that the

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Speaker 2: efficiency just won't be there for such a high number

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Speaker 2: a week one for Jonathan Taylor. So going under eighty

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Speaker 2: one and a half rushing yards at prize pick for

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Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you sneaked me on this one, so I'm definitely

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Speaker 3: in line with you. I'm projecting this at seventy. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor is going to have a good game. He's

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Speaker 3: still a mid range to low end RB one in fantasy.

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Speaker 3: It just this number is a bit too high. So

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Speaker 3: you know, I think his meat as median is going

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Speaker 3: to be you know, closer to seventy.

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Speaker 1: So love the value here on the under as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to your first receiving prop for

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Speaker 1: week one, so I'll.

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Speaker 3: Go with Juwan Johnson baby under thirty and a half

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Speaker 3: receiving yards. You know, I was saying he was a

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Speaker 3: sneaky flyer in DFS if Adam Trautman were to miss

246
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Speaker 3: this week. You know, Jawn Johnson's a former receiver converted

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Speaker 3: tight end. The Saints really don't have anybody at tight

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Speaker 3: end outside of Troutman, so I thought he was going

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Speaker 3: to step in and see a few targets. But now

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Speaker 3: that Troutman, it looks like he's basically probable and good

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Speaker 3: to go. So I think that, you know, Juwan Johnson

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Speaker 3: at best is going to split time with an troutman.

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Speaker 3: I just don't see how he clears this number with

254
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Speaker 3: a healthy Troutman in the mix. So I'm projecting this

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Speaker 3: closer to twenty yards actually, and I would take this

256
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Speaker 3: down to I would say twenty four to twenty five

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Speaker 3: and a half yards. Again, we have to monitor Troutman

258
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Speaker 3: just in case, but it seems like it's all systems go.

259
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Speaker 3: And again this is a projection I think should have

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Speaker 3: dropped ten to fifteen yards after that news.

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Speaker 1: So I love this under.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think at best, if Troutman plays, I think

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Speaker 2: you can't say Juan Johnson's median catches is any higher

264
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Speaker 2: than two and so you're essentially saying you give him

265
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Speaker 2: eleven yards per catch, which is you know, in line

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Speaker 2: for a tight end. Then yeah, I think anything above

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Speaker 2: twenty two I would feel comfortable with.

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Speaker 1: So I like that one.

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Speaker 2: But again, yeah, keep your eye on the injury news

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Speaker 2: and keep your eye on the lines.

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Speaker 1: Remember these lines do move.

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Speaker 2: So for my first receiving prop, I'm going with an over.

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Speaker 2: You know, let's mix in some overs. You know, I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to just go straight unders. So I actually

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Speaker 2: went all unders on our season long pod where we

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Speaker 2: went through all the props.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to go with an over.

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Speaker 2: Here in Keenan Allen over sixty and a half receiving

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Speaker 2: yards and this is a number where Keenan Allen went

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Speaker 2: over this in seven of twelve games where he played

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Speaker 2: over half the snaps. Remember he had a couple of

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Speaker 2: weird games where he got hurt or he was you know,

283
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Speaker 2: just banged up, and so I think this number is

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Speaker 2: too low for you know, I know we're a little

285
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Speaker 2: bit down on Herbert, but I think Keenan Allen, you know,

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Speaker 2: when he's when he's healthy, he's not it's not like

287
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Speaker 2: he's running you know, these deep routes that are going

288
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Speaker 2: to be hard to connect for a number one wide

289
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,360
Speaker 2: receiver against the tough D so I'd feel comfortable with

290
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Speaker 2: this one up to about sixty four. I like Keenan

291
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Speaker 2: Allen over sixty and a half. Again, he went over

292
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Speaker 2: this a pretty good amount in his healthy games last year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Allen's always a good overplay because he

294
00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,000
Speaker 3: has such a high floor. So if you ever see

295
00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 3: a good number for Keenan Allen, like, I'm comfortable taking

296
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 3: overs with him. My wide receiver prop is kind of

297
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,880
Speaker 3: competing with Keenan a bit because I'm taking the over

298
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half receiving arts for Mike Williams

299
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 3: because I'm projecting this closer to fifty actually, so I

300
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,240
Speaker 3: have quite a bit of a delta between my projection

301
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,960
Speaker 3: and this number. And you know Mike Williams, he's typically

302
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 3: a high ceiling, low floor wide receiver, very inconsistent. Normally

303
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,280
Speaker 3: I wouldn't touch his overs. But you know, new offensive

304
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 3: coordinator Joe Lombardi has said he intends to use Mike

305
00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 3: Williams as the X receiver, you know, the Michael Thomas

306
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,520
Speaker 3: role in this Sean Payton offense. And you know we

307
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,800
Speaker 3: saw offensive cornator Joe Brady do that with Robbie Anderson

308
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 3: last year and he became a much more consistent receiver.

309
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Speaker 1: As a result.

310
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Speaker 3: Now, I don't really know how this is going to

311
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 3: work because they already have Keenan Allen to be that

312
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,760
Speaker 3: sort of underneath weapon, But either way, I'm trusting the

313
00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:14,000
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator language here and I think Mike Williams has

314
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 3: a higher floor this week. If Usin Eckler happens to

315
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,440
Speaker 3: the miss of the game, I think, you know, Keenan

316
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Speaker 3: Allen and Mike Williams might pick up an extra target

317
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Speaker 3: or two. So I'm comfortable taking the over here at

318
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Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half and I'd probably take it

319
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Speaker 3: up to forty five and a half. So yeah, I

320
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 3: think that Mike Williams is a guy that I think

321
00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 3: will be able to trust to be a little.

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Speaker 1: Bit more consistent week tweak this year.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting because I know earlier in the week we

324
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Speaker 2: both like to justin Herbert under But that's that's why

325
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,520
Speaker 2: you have to kind of watch these line moves because

326
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Speaker 2: as books adjust, I think you know, sometimes they overadjust.

327
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Speaker 2: So you know that Herbert number, I think went down

328
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Speaker 2: about fifteen yards and I think that's affecting the props

329
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 2: for some of the receivers to where now you know,

330
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 2: we jumped on the Herbert prop Under earlier in the

331
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Speaker 2: week and now are sitting here taking Chargers receivers over

332
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 2: because the numbers dropped too far. So this is kind

333
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 2: of you know, the bat the edges are very small here,

334
00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,360
Speaker 2: and you have to kind of jump on these numbers

335
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 2: as quick as possible because they will move. But sometimes

336
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,080
Speaker 2: you get a great situation where there's an over adjustment.

337
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,080
Speaker 2: You can it's almost like we have a middle here.

338
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 2: You know, we're kind of hedged out on both sides.

339
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Speaker 3: So yeah, and that's a great point because you know

340
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 3: both players. You know, if you have these yardage totals up,

341
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Speaker 3: it's about ninety eight yards, so there's an extra one

342
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:35,080
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty two yards to go around. And if

343
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 3: Austin Eckler is you know, injured or you know he's

344
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 3: he's limited in any way, you know, that's more yardage

345
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:44,960
Speaker 3: for Michae Williams and Kean Allen. And then we know

346
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,360
Speaker 3: that the wide receiver three slaw on the Chargers is

347
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 3: usually a low volume roll.

348
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,080
Speaker 1: Jared Cook is going to be a guy that's inconsistent.

349
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 3: So it is interesting to kind of like like the

350
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,320
Speaker 3: overs on both of these guys, and the under on

351
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Speaker 3: Herbert because like you said, said the uh, it's such

352
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 3: a fine line and we're just talking about like small

353
00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 3: edges here. But that's a good point because I do

354
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,919
Speaker 3: remember kind of saying I was all over the Herbert

355
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 3: under two seventy one. But again, it's it's all about

356
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,080
Speaker 3: these numbers, and I think that there's still some value

357
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:14,919
Speaker 3: on these overs.

358
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 2: Just got to hope Jayleen Geiton doesn't go to catch

359
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 2: his first Josh Palmer.

360
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,199
Speaker 3: I mean, Josh, I'm a big Josh Palmer believer, but

361
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,600
Speaker 3: it might take him a couple of games to really

362
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,680
Speaker 3: hit the ground. So yeah, if anything would be Josh

363
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:28,920
Speaker 3: Palmer screwing all.

364
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,359
Speaker 1: This up for me this week or so.

365
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 2: You think Palmer's definitely, I mean we're getting off track here,

366
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 2: but you think Palmer's You think Guiden's out of the

367
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 2: rotation week one, well.

368
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:37,960
Speaker 1: Not week one.

369
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 3: I think that by week nine, oh and is absolutely

370
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:43,560
Speaker 3: a rotation.

371
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,360
Speaker 1: It's going to be Josh.

372
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 3: Palmer getting you know, seventy to eighty percent of the

373
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 3: route's run. But week one, that's kind of the fun

374
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,359
Speaker 3: about week one. We don't know. I wouldn't be surprised

375
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 3: if they sort of split work, but by the end

376
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,040
Speaker 3: of the season, absolutely Josh Palmer will overtake Eiden.

377
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,160
Speaker 2: We need prize picks to throw up some outs, pit props,

378
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,520
Speaker 2: just over routes, run in again.

379
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 1: That would be fun. All right, let's close it off

380
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 1: with another over for me.

381
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 2: I saw this number and I kind of chuckled because

382
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 2: I get it, but it's just way too low for

383
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:17,479
Speaker 2: this player, and that's Julio Jones.

384
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: I'm going over.

385
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 2: Fifty five and a half receiving yards at prize picks.

386
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,719
Speaker 2: First of all, the Arizona Cardinals don't have cornerbacks right

387
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 2: now like this is. This could be a real issue

388
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 2: for them. You know, Malcolm Butler retired. Their their cornerback

389
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 2: depth chart is just really thin. And also I don't

390
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 2: think they've practiced with the rotation that they're going to

391
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 2: end up using as much as they would have liked.

392
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 2: So Julio Jones went over this number in six of

393
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:48,080
Speaker 2: nine games last year, and I think this is in

394
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 2: Week one in a in a high total game. I

395
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 2: think you're going to see him go over this again.

396
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,680
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about his health. I think he'll be fine.

397
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,399
Speaker 2: Him and AJ Brown should be the leading receivers for

398
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 2: to see by a mile, and they should be just

399
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 2: as big a part of the game plan as a

400
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,119
Speaker 2: guy like Derrick Henry, because again, you're gonna look at

401
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 2: this Cardinal team and you're gonna look at where the

402
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 2: weakness is on defense, and it's gonna be on that perimeter,

403
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 2: at that cornerback position and on the other side of

404
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 2: the ball. You know, we Arizona's expected to keep pace

405
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 2: with Tennessee. Again, the total is fifty two in the game,

406
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 2: so it should be a close, high scoring game.

407
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 1: So I think Tennessee's gonna have to throw it more

408
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 1: than they normally would.

409
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:31,400
Speaker 2: So love Julio Jones over fifty five and a half.

410
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: I would take this up to about sixty four and

411
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 2: a half as well.

412
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, you stole this one for me as well. This

413
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 3: is a smash spot for He's not even on the

414
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 3: injury of part this week, so he's apparent one hundred percent.

415
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 3: That's pretty rare. So you're gonna get prime Julio in

416
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 3: week one. Like you said, nobody's gonna be able to

417
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 3: stop him on the Arizona side of the football.

418
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, I love what's over as well. What is

419
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 1: Juo is my wide receiver eleven this week? This is yeah,

420
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 1: he's gonna say the same thing.

421
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 3: Like he opened up as my wide receiver nine and

422
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 3: I was like, okay, and then I think he's down

423
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,719
Speaker 3: to like wide receiver eleven now yeah, but yeah, like

424
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 3: this is the week. Oh he's wide receiver ten and

425
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,880
Speaker 3: he was only wide receiver nineteen. And my season long

426
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 3: projections because out of all receivers, I do doc like

427
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 3: a half game for him in games played. But I said,

428
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 3: when he's active, healthy and playing, I mean, he's still

429
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 3: a top ten receiver. So that's why I love, you know,

430
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 3: attacking these week one player profs because we're getting value

431
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 3: on taking Hulio Jones over.

432
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 1: I mean, how fun is that? Right?

433
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 2: And I mean I know sometimes you have those receivers

434
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: go to new teams and it's not always seamless transition,

435
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 2: but this is like tailor made for the Titans to

436
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 2: show off their new you know how brilliant their front

437
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 2: office is for you know, sending away the offensive coordinator

438
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 2: but getting like his best receiver on his new team

439
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:57,199
Speaker 2: in return, you know what I mean.

440
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's essentially the trade they made. You know, they're

441
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 1: like Arthur Smith you can go. We'll take Juli, y'all exactly.

442
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 2: So let's recap our best bet, all right, So to

443
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 2: recap Sean going jaywhen Hurts over forty and a half

444
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Antonio Gibson over fifty seven and a half

445
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Phillip Limdsay under thirty nine and a half

446
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Juan Johnson under thirty and a half receiving yards,

447
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 2: and Mike Williams over thirty seven and a half receiving yards.

448
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 2: I am going with Teddy Bridgewater under two hundred and

449
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half passing yards, Austin Ekwer under

450
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 2: fifty one and a half rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor under

451
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 2: eighty one and a half rushing yards, Keenan Allen over

452
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 2: sixty and a half receiving yards, and Julio Jones over

453
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: fifty five and a half receiving yards. Next up here

454
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 2: on the Fantasy Flex is a segment we call a

455
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 2: WEE Entries, where Shaan and I dive into the Prize

456
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,719
Speaker 2: Picks app and compare our player projection to the props

457
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 2: to build some entries for listeners unfamiliar with Prize Picks.

458
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 1: It's a super simple way to play.

459
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 2: DFS Prize Picks offers a bunch of fantasy prop over

460
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: under markets for both daily and season long, such as

461
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: Zeke Elliott rushing yards this season or Josh Allen's Week

462
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 2: one Fantasy score. You choose the picks you like, you

463
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 2: build your entry, and you can go at two, three, four,

464
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: or even five picks, and your payout is based on

465
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 2: how many picks you went with and how much you risk.

466
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 2: So if you build an entry with two props, you

467
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: can win three x your entry fee. If you build

468
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 2: one with four you can win as much as ten

469
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: x your entry fee. Sean and I are going to

470
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 2: use our projections and identify markets we like, and for

471
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: this show, we'll just go with our best bets out.

472
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: Of our top ten props.

473
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 2: So Sean start us off, who's your number one best

474
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 2: bet for Week one of twenty twenty one.

475
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 3: I think the number one best bet is John Johnson

476
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 3: to go under this thirty and a half receiving yards.

477
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 3: Like I said, I mean, Adam traveling is healthy, so

478
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 3: I lowered his projection down closer to seventeen twenty receiving yards.

479
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 3: So I had to actually pick this down to about

480
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 3: twenty three twenty four receiving yards.

481
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: But my number one best bet on prize picks, I'm

482
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 2: going Austin Eckler under fifty one and a half rushing yards.

483
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,199
Speaker 2: He's a little bit banged up the tough Washington front seven,

484
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: and I think Eckler is going to do most of

485
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: his damage in the receiving game. So I would bet

486
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: this to about forty rushing yards for Eckler in Week one. Sean,

487
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 2: who's your second best bet on prize picks for our

488
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 2: elite entry in Week one?

489
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 3: So my second best bet has to be this Jalen

490
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 3: Hurts over forty and a half rushing yards. I think

491
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: this is a pretty safe bed. He's the kind of

492
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 3: guy that has a really high floor when it comes

493
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 3: to his scrambling ability. You know, the Falcons could blit

494
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 3: him a ton forcing him out of the pocket. And

495
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 3: we saw the one game that he went under last

496
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 3: year he barely He went out of this number at

497
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: thirty four. Where's the other three games he flew over

498
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 3: this number? So I'm projecting this closer to about forty

499
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,959
Speaker 3: six forty seven rushing yards. I would take this up

500
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 3: to forty four and a half, but I think he

501
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 3: has a really really high floor, and I love the

502
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 3: over forty and a half rushing yards.

503
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Jalen Hurts over as well.

504
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: And I think the one thing people are forgetting when

505
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 2: they quote some of his stat from a year ago

506
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 2: is that he got benched in that final start against Washington,

507
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: which is a really tough defense, and so you can't

508
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 2: necessarily knock him for that average stat line over those

509
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 2: four games because it was really three and a half

510
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 2: starts for Jalen Hurts.

511
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 1: So love it.

512
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 2: For my best bet number two for our Prize Picks

513
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: Elite entry, I am going with Julio Jones over fifty

514
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: five and a half receiving yards. Again, he cleared eighty

515
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 2: four in six of nine games last year.

516
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,159
Speaker 1: Just a number that's way too low if Julio's healthy.

517
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: And by the way, the Cardinals are reeling at the

518
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: cornerback position. So Julio Jones over fifty five and a

519
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 2: half receiving To recap our Prize Picks a Leit entry

520
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: for Week one, Sean has Jalen Hurts over forty and

521
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards, Juan Johnson under thirty and a

522
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 2: half receiving yards, and I have Austin Ekwer under fifty

523
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 2: one and a half rushing yards and Julio Jones over

524
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 2: fifty five and a half receiving yards. As a reminder,

525
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: Prize Picks markets do move, so you'll want to be

526
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 2: nimble and locking the best numbers as quick as possible.

527
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 2: If you have not created a prize Picks account yet,

528
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: check out the link in our episode description and they'll

529
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 2: match your first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Or

530
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 2: visit prize picks dot com and use the promo code

531
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: Action ten. That's Action one zero at prizepicks dot com. Okay,

532
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: now back to the show, all right, So that does

533
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 2: it for our weekly props episode on the Fantasy Flex feed.

534
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: As a reminder, we move to all.

535
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 2: New feeds so we can give you guys, five episodes

536
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 2: per week all season long.

537
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: So if you could do us a favor, please subscribe

538
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: to the new feed. It's Fantasy Flex.

539
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 2: Just search it wherever you get your podcasts, and we

540
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 2: have us a rating and a review too.

541
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: That would really help us out.

542
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: Tell us what you like, what you don't like about

543
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: the show, and we'll keep the heat coming for you guys.

544
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker.

545
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Chris Raybon, and

546
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 2: you can find us both in the award winning Action

547
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 2: Network app at those same handles, where you can follow

548
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: our bets or track your own, get live odds, all

549
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 2: that good stuff. Don't forget to check out actionnetwork dot

550
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,959
Speaker 2: com and Fantasy Labs dot com for all of our

551
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 2: fantasy football dfs in betting content until next week was

552
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: get this Money