1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newsworld, Ukraine's most popular comedic actor 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: was an unlikely president of his country, and now even 3 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: more improbably, Vladimir Zolensky has become the world's most celebrated statesman. 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: Who is he? How do he become the international hero 5 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: of bar time. There's a new book, Zolensky, The Unlikely 6 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: Ukrainian Hero Who Defied Putin and United the World, which 7 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: offers a compelling account of this fascinating leader. No one 8 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: has been more surprised by Zolenski's power to inspire and 9 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: mobilize Ukraine in the world than Vladimir Putin. So we 10 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: have here to talk about the Zolensky Putin and the 11 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: entire pattern that we can expect somebody who's really an 12 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: expert on both sides of that, because she's written a 13 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: great book Putin's Playbook, Russia's a Secret Plan to Defeat America, 14 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: And she wrote the foreword to a brand new book, Zelenski, 15 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: The Unlikely Ukrainian Hero Who Defied Putin and United the World, 16 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: which is written by Andrew Urban and Chris McCloud. But 17 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: Rebecca Koffler has a terrific background. She's a Russian born 18 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: US intelligence expert. She worked with the Defense Intelligence Agency 19 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: and the Central Intelligence Agency's National Clandestine Service, so she 20 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 1: speaks from a kind of personal knowledge that's very different 21 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: than a purely academic background. First of all, I just 22 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: want to say, Rebecca, welcome back to newts World. Thank 23 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: you for joining me. Thank you very much, Misspisfic. I 24 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: am so delighted to be here with you and your 25 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: audience today. We last spoke in December, and owner remind 26 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: all of our listeners if they haven't heard that particular 27 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: podcast where we talked about your book, Putin's Playbook, It's 28 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,399 Speaker 1: really worth them going back and listening to that because 29 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: it creates a great background in which to think about 30 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: the current Russia Ukraine's situation. It just strikes me that 31 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: you have a very unique view on all of this, 32 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: and so I want to ask you a broad general question. 33 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: First of all, are you surprised by the relative effectiveness 34 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: of the Ukrainians in not allowing the Russians to get 35 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: into Kievan three days? Is apparently both the American Chairman 36 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,959 Speaker 1: of the Joint Chiefs and Putin Ball would happen. I'm 37 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: very surprised, mister speaker, Putin clearly has miscalculated both the 38 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:52,079 Speaker 1: Russian military's tactical competence as well as the Ukrainian militaries 39 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 1: tactical brilliance, if you will, it's not without the US help. 40 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: And also Putin miscal calculated just the ferocious spirit of 41 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 1: Zelenski as the leader and his ability to galvanize his 42 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: people to fight against Russia. You know, I think to 43 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: put this in context, and I have to confess that 44 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: the Russians have performed much less competently than I thought 45 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: they would. But just to give people a sense of context. 46 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: In evaluating the one hundred and forty two countries that 47 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: have serious armed forces capable of battle, Russia ranked number two, 48 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: Ukraine ranked number thirty four. Ukraine's annual military spending has 49 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: put it about five point four billion dollars in American money, 50 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: about three percent of their gross domestic product. Russia's has 51 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: put at sixty one point seven billion dollars of their 52 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: larger economy, about four point three percent of their economy. 53 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: So you have two establishments, one spending sixty two billion 54 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: a year, the other spending about five billion a year. 55 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: Ukraine's active military personnel was estimated at two hundred and 56 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: fifty five thousand. Russia's was at a million, one hundred 57 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: and fifty four thousand, so basically more than four times 58 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: the size of the Ukraine. Russia had twenty seven hundred 59 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: and fifty tanks that were ready, with another eighteen thousand 60 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: in storage. Ukraine had about eleven hundred and fifty tanks, 61 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: so a little better than a two to one advantage 62 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: for the Russians. The Russians had about four hundred combat helicopters, 63 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: Ukraine had one hundred and thirty nine, so about a 64 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: three to one advantage when you just look at the 65 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: quantitative size of this, Rebecca, I mean, don't you suspect 66 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: that our intelligence service and virtually every intelligence service had 67 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: a sense that by just sheer mass, the Russians would 68 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: win pretty dramatically. Yes, absolutely, all Western intelligence services, most 69 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 1: intelligence services were a surprised. We're miscalculated too. But the 70 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: truth is and is to speak, our weaponry and technology 71 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 1: did not win war, and we've learned that in Afghanistan 72 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: after twenty years to point two trillion dollars and six 73 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: thousand lives last we still had to withdraw. And we 74 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 1: have superior military capability, We have the best wall fighting 75 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: force in military history, right, and so the Russians obviously, 76 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 1: by invading Ukraine, it's brother Slavic nation. I think Putin 77 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: completely underestimated how the brother on brother slav You know, 78 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 1: you have to be a butcher to commit atrocities that 79 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 1: he's committing, and this is why he invited the Wagner 80 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: group and the Kandiats to do the job. You know, 81 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: after Putin's behavior in Chechnia, the destruction of Grosny in 82 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: the late nineties and then the behavior they've had in Syria, 83 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: are used surprised by how ruthless they've been or does 84 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: this sort of fit what you thought they were capable of. 85 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: So I definitely thought that they are capable of, and 86 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: in fact, targeting civilians, maternity hospitals, women children is part 87 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: of Putin's military strategy, which is completely unconscionable. But this 88 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: is how the Russians fight. The objective basically is to 89 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 1: dislodge the opponents psychologically and to put the pressure on 90 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: Zelenski to abandon the fight in order to stop the suffering. 91 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: But Zelenski has not really budged. It looks like he 92 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: has decided that he would rather have his country wiped 93 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: off the map by the madman Putin. Than give an inch, 94 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 1: he just stated that he's not trading territory and he's 95 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: not trading people. So currently the positions of Russia and 96 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:58,559 Speaker 1: Ukraine are irreconcilable. And these two have personal animosity, so 97 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: they're strong, stubborn with an element of narcissism, So neither 98 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: one of them wants to give up this fight. In 99 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: that context, I did have a feeling about two weeks 100 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: ago watching him that Zelenskir had been kind of worn 101 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: down by just the sheer brutality of what he was 102 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: seeing happened to the Ukrainian people. And there was a 103 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 1: brief period where he was almost begging for a negotiation, 104 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: and then I think he must have reached a conclusion 105 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: that it just isn't going to happen. There was no 106 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: reasonable possibility of an agreement with Russia that would have 107 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: Ukraine survived. But it must be excruciating to be the 108 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: leader of a country and not be able to protect 109 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: your people and see the kind of mass killings and 110 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: also this almost virtual slavery of taking several hundred thousand 111 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: Ukrainians into Russia in a way that we really haven't 112 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: seen since the late nineteen forties. I just read a 113 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: note by somebody who said their entire family had been taken. 114 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: They didn't know where they were, They've been shipped into Siberia, 115 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: and they were totally out of touch with him. And 116 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: this is a level of abducting human beings that, at 117 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 1: least in the European part of the world, we haven't 118 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: seen since World War Two. Don't you think that's so 119 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: clearly grotesque that even Putin's advisers must realize how much 120 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: the world is going to be appalled and ultimately reject 121 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: the Russian model. Yes, my heart goes out to Ukrainians, 122 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: to Zelenski his family. He's been hunted by Putin's hit squad, 123 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: the Wagner group, the Conda. Putin wants to have him assassinated. Yes, 124 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: it is completely unconsortable what Putin has done. It's very stalinesque. 125 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: Remember how he recently just held a rally where he 126 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: basically appealed to the Russian people to rat out the 127 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: so called faith column is basically he's going back to 128 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: the Red terror times. The Russian people are just as 129 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: terrorized by Putin as the Ukrainian people. And yes, this 130 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: man is going to become the pariah. In fact, he 131 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: is a pride. He has joined the likes of North 132 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: Korean Kim jump On and the rest of the butchers 133 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 1: of the world. Russia is entering a completely different stage 134 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: where in the international relations sphere, where it's going to 135 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: be isolated, it's under sanctions, the economy is going to 136 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: be devastated, so it's a mess. The thing that concerns 137 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:44,199 Speaker 1: me the most, mister speaker, is the impact of what's 138 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: going on on our country, because that is also not 139 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: to be underestimated. Expand on that. What do you mean, Oh? Sure? 140 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: So when I wrote the book in which I included 141 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: a whole chapter on Putin's nuclear warfare doctrine, I got 142 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: a lot of skeptical and feedback. But right now, the 143 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine as part 144 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: of his escalated de escalate strategy, it's becoming normalized. You know. 145 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: Zelenski himself has warned us recently, as did the CIA director, 146 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: and the entire Russian government security apparatus has been signaling 147 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: that Russia is entering the total war phase. And that 148 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: is a concern to me because clearly after Putin has 149 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,719 Speaker 1: been designated at least, you know, verbally, and whether it's 150 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: the slip of the tongue or intentional, Putin heard it 151 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: loud and clear. He understands that there's no offer for him. 152 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: And so my concern is if the Russian intelligence services 153 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: perceive whether it's true or not, but if they decide 154 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: that US native is about to intervene, Food's nuclear warfare 155 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: adopt into the escalic conflict in Ukraine is on the table, 156 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: and at that point no one really knows where it 157 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: can escalate into. It could just simply get out of control. 158 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: And that's the thing that worries me the most. To 159 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: reinforce what you have said, I mean, Zelenski did say 160 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: the other day, and I'm quoting him, we shouldn't wait 161 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: for the moment when Russia decides to use nuclear weapons. 162 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: We must prepare for that. At the same time, William Burns, 163 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: the director of the CIA, said during a question answer session, quote, 164 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, 165 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: given the setbacks that they faced so far militarily, none 166 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: of us can take lightly the threat posed by a 167 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons were low yield nuclear weapons. 168 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: It raises two different questions in my mind. One is 169 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 1: with the new general that they just brought back from Syria, 170 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: who became famous for his ruthlessness and his viciousness and 171 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: his willingness to kill civilians in Syria, although the Russians 172 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 1: had already been doing a lot of it, but it 173 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: did make me wonder to what extent the next phase 174 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 1: of this war was going to become even more brutal 175 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: and even bloodier than anything we had seen up till now. 176 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: And from your perspective, I mean, is the Grosney and 177 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: Syrian experiences something we should take seriously as a model 178 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: that might well be applied in Ukraine. Yes, absolutely, I 179 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 1: agree with you. I had the same reaction when Alexander 180 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: Dvornikov was appointed to take command over the Russian forces 181 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: by Putin. This man knows the terrain in Donbas. This 182 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: man is known for having used chemical weapons, and the Russians, 183 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: like I said, have been signaling that WMD employment, whether 184 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: it's nuclear or chemical, is on the table. They have 185 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: it in their doctrine, not just nuclear but chemical weapons use. 186 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: Of course, they're trying to obfuscate this as defensive right, 187 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 1: But yes, they do have such capability, and in fact, 188 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 1: my analysis is that Russia has already used chemical warfare 189 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 1: in Ukraine in an asymmetric way. No, they did not 190 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 1: use chemical weapons, but by striking that chemical plant, insuming 191 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 1: and creating an ammonia leak, this amounts in my view, 192 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 1: to chemical warfare. And so they have crossed already several 193 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: thresholds and they're clearly signaling. Putting had another signal for 194 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: US today Russia test fired and nuclear capable heavy liquid 195 00:13:55,559 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: fuel ICBM missile called armatt RS twenty eight, which the 196 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:07,839 Speaker 1: Western Intelligence services dubbed as Satan two. This is a 197 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: great significance, sir, because this specific missile system is very versatile, 198 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: that has about ten to fifteen various types of warheads, 199 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:26,479 Speaker 1: and also it's reportedly capable of penetrating US missile defenses. 200 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: So Putin is signaling yes, of course they are concerned 201 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. They're concerned about our reactions, 202 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: and so he's signaling to US, Okay, if conflict escalates 203 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: into the Russia US nuclear exchange, then we have this 204 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: capability that reportedly has no match. I can't confirm what 205 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: of the United States has it or not, but the 206 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: Russia believe that we don't have it, and that's what 207 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: they base their decision making on a one level. Part 208 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: of what's terrifying about all that is you don't need 209 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: really sophisticated rockets if you can simply deliver hydrogen bombs 210 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: over cities and as city killing systems. We in, the Russians, 211 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: and the Chinese are all capable of dramatically changing the 212 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: course of civilization in about thirty minutes. And I noticed 213 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: that just before they invaded Ukraine, they actually went through 214 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: a series of seven different nuclear scenarios that Putin engaged 215 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: in personally as a preparation. On the one level, he's 216 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: running a bluff and say, look, I have all this stuff, 217 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: so you better be careful how you deal with me. 218 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: On the other hand, they do have, as you point out, 219 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: a doctrine it's ironically different from ours, and that we 220 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: made a decision about twenty or twenty five years ago 221 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: to get rid of all of the small tactical nuclear 222 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: capabilities because we wanted to create a threshold the Russians 223 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: wanted in the opposite direction. And then they, in a 224 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: sense have a natural transition from large artillery towards small 225 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, and in their doctrine it would not be 226 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 1: at all implausible for them, For example, on this steel 227 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: mill which has been resisting, which really reminded me a 228 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: lot of the fighting in Stalingrad in forty two forty three, 229 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 1: where the ability of the Soviets to hide in these 230 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: huge old industrial facilities and made them almost impossible for 231 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: the Germans to take them out. Well, the Ukrainians have 232 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: done the same thing. They've gotten steel mill, which leased 233 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: up until today has been astonishing, is a strong point 234 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: and is just absorbed Russian attacks and I suspect cause 235 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: a pretty large number of Russian casualties. You can imagine 236 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: that there's a logic on the Russian side to use 237 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,959 Speaker 1: a tactical weapon to eliminate that in a way that 238 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: would cross a real threshold. And from your perspective, having 239 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: served in the US government in two of our key 240 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: intelligence communities, what is your hunch our reaction would be 241 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 1: if Putin did in fact cross the nuclear threshold. So 242 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:35,880 Speaker 1: it's hard to estimate our reaction, mister speaker, because unlike Russia, 243 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: the United States follows the laws of armed conflict, and 244 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: since we are not active combatants the United States or 245 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:48,719 Speaker 1: NATO to this conflict. If Putin decides to detonate a 246 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 1: tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, we cannot legally intervene, or 247 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: if they use chemical weapons for that matter. Unlike what 248 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 1: President Joe Biden said, we will respond in kind. Clearly, 249 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: this was either confusion or slip over the tongue. So 250 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 1: it's hard to predict, sir, what we would do, perhaps 251 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: you know, as cyber attack, but again, we are much 252 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: more dependent on our cyber capabilities in IT and technology 253 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: than the Russians. And the Russians have formidable cyber capability 254 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: and we've seen them recently with the ransomware attacks on 255 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: JBS meat process and plants the colonial pipeline. My concern 256 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: is that we don't have a plan, okay, And it's 257 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: very obvious, sir that our community, despite having unambiguous intelligence 258 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 1: what putent plans were, at least for the past ten 259 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: years and possibly even twenty, he never made it secret. 260 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: We never developed a deterrent strategy the one that we 261 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: had during the former Press than Ronald Reagan times. The 262 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: community never developed any kind of viable plan to out 263 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: escalade Putin, and we are constantly in the responsive mode 264 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: instead of preemptive mode, and we put all of our 265 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: eggs in the sanctions basket that Joe Biden himself admitted 266 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 1: were never even going to the trope putin. It's a mess. 267 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: We need to get back on track with our own 268 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 1: blue capability and blue strategy. It's fairly horrifying if you 269 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: think about it. You know one of the side notes, 270 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: I just have to comment and get your reaction. Zelinski, 271 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: who had created a television show about a comedian who 272 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 1: was a reformer who ended up as president of the 273 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: country and then ended up running for president country during 274 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: a period when the previous president was pretty widely considered 275 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 1: remarkably corrupt even by Ukrainian standards, and then he won 276 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: that election by a huge margin. But he has sort 277 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: of declined for a period. There was down to about 278 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: thirty one percent approval back in December, but within two 279 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: weeks of the Russian invasion, he was up above ninety 280 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 1: percent approval. And I couldn't help but think about the 281 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: Zelenski's background and his ability to use communications media as 282 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: a comedian has a parallel in Reagan. People often forget 283 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 1: that Reagan had made two movies with chimpanzees, and that Reagan, 284 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: in fact, had done a fair amount of light comedy 285 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,199 Speaker 1: as well as westerns and other kinds of movies. But 286 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 1: both Zolensky and Reagan brought to the international competition an 287 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:41,160 Speaker 1: understanding of media that is astonishing. And people had spoken 288 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: a long time about how much the Russians have invested 289 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: in using media and trying to wage media campaigns. But 290 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: it seems to me that Zolenski has simply run circles 291 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: around Putin and that by any plausible standard, Zolenski has 292 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: won the communications war up till now. Oh, I agree 293 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: with you, so one hundred percent. Zelenski has completely upstage 294 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: Putin in the information warfare department. He has been playing 295 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: the social media like a master, you know, leading a 296 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 1: concert on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, like a conductor, basically 297 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 1: directing his orchestra. Remember that's how he won the presidency. 298 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 1: He rejected traditional medium such as Rally's debates. What he 299 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 1: did during his campaign, he was doing the same thing 300 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 1: that he's doing now, putting out these tweets, putting out 301 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: these videos. Remember when he is right now speaking to 302 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: these various Western audiences, whether it's US Congress, British Parliament, 303 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: you know, other big platforms. He puts translators to tears 304 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: right by his language, invoking emotions. Videos he mesmerized the 305 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: entire Western world. And that is because, in my view, 306 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 1: he's a highly trained performer. He knows how to read 307 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: the audience. You know, you said, President Ronald Reagan, I 308 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: need to check out those movies. I've never watched them, 309 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: because you know, i was born and raised in Russia, 310 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: so I'm not familiar with those. I'm just looking forward, 311 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: assuming they is still available. But yes, you nailed it. 312 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 1: The Zelenski is a master communicate and despite Putin priding 313 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: himself and Russia in being like a human relations expert, 314 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: and now Zelensky upstaged In on well, and that's why 315 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: I thought it was great that you did the forward 316 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 1: for this new book, Zelenski, the unlikely Ukrainian hero who 317 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: defied Putin and united the world. I was very struck. 318 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 1: I watched his speech to the American Congress. I thought 319 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: it was really effective, and I thought the video they 320 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 1: had developed that they put right in the middle of 321 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 1: his speech was extraordinarily compelling, and I think had moved 322 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: the Congress on both parties, both Democrats and Republicans, moved 323 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 1: to a lot more aggressive pro Ukraine anti Russian position 324 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: based on his personal impact that I was very struck 325 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: when they sank the flagship the Mosva in the Black Sea, 326 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:40,719 Speaker 1: which was I thought a tremendous blow to Putin to 327 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,679 Speaker 1: lose the number one ship in their Black Sea fleet, 328 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: and also had to send a signal was the second 329 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: ship they'd lost, that they don't have control of the 330 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: Black Sea. They have not been able to get air control, 331 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: and in fact, the SA three hundred surfaced air muscles 332 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: have done a pretty good job of keeping the RUG 333 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 1: pilots very worried about their own survival. A good friend 334 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: of mine said to me, nobody is particularly excited about 335 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: dying for Putin. There's a lot of people who are 336 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 1: willing to die for Ukraine. And he said that's part 337 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: of the reason you see both with the tanks and 338 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: with the aircraft, that they don't engage very aggressively because 339 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 1: they're looking around thinking, wait, why am I going to 340 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:24,400 Speaker 1: do this? And that Putin has not been able to 341 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: win the internal propaganda war with his own people to 342 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: convince them that this is a cause sufficiently strong that 343 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: they have to engage and they have to risk their lives. 344 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 1: And in that context, do you think if they defeat 345 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: this new offensive, which I think is very possible. The 346 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: amount of equipment that's starting to arrive is massive and 347 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 1: is better than what the Russians have, which has also 348 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,479 Speaker 1: been a big surprise. Their logistics is pathetic, their training 349 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: is not very good, and their equipment has turned out 350 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 1: to be not nearly as good as we thought it 351 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 1: would be. And of course the Eastern Europeans have now 352 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: figured out this great new game. They give Ukraine all 353 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 1: of their semi absolute Russian equipment if we will agree 354 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: to replace it with the most modern American equipment, which 355 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,679 Speaker 1: in a way for us to help solve both the 356 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 1: Ukrainian problem and modernizes dramatically the ability of the Eastern 357 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 1: Europeans to defend themselves against Russia. Do you think if 358 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: this drags on and they continue to have the kind 359 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,199 Speaker 1: of one sided losses and the Ukrainians continue to be 360 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 1: as tactically clever as they've been up till now, is 361 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: there a point where Putin accepts defeat or is there 362 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: a point where he escalates to chemical and nuclear weapons 363 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: because of just sheer desperation. I don't believe, sir, that 364 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: Putin will accept defeat for two reasons. Number one, his 365 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 1: psychological profile is such that he's incapable of accepting defeat. 366 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 1: I had Putin evaluated by a psychiatrist, a US trained 367 00:25:55,200 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 1: former Air Force officer who is a consultant for the CIA. 368 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: This medical doctor evaluated our own nuclear missilius before they 369 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: went to guard our nukes and missiles Silas. That was 370 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 1: when there was all this talk that Putin is irrational, 371 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: he's mental unstable, he's affected by COVID and all those things. 372 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,719 Speaker 1: So the assessment of the medical professional that I'm talking 373 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: about was there absolutely no mental anomalies in Putin, and 374 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: the element of narcissism is clearly there. So Putin thinks 375 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: that he is smarter than everyone else. Okay, So that's 376 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: the first aspect, right, his psychological profile. And then second 377 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:49,160 Speaker 1: one is Putin believes he has no offram. Even if 378 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: we had one for him, he would have accepted it. 379 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: But he also knows that there is no such offram 380 00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 1: because look at the rhetoric that's coming out of Washington. 381 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 1: This man can no longer remain in power. He's a 382 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: war criminal and there are possibly proceedings to be started 383 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: to try him for war crimes. He's genocidal. And then 384 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: most recently Democratic Senator from Delaware Chris Coons pretty much 385 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: called on US and NATO to intervene implicitly. So no, 386 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: a defeat is not acceptable. What Putin will likely do, 387 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: and my intelligence assessment is the following. You will turn 388 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 1: it into a grinding, protracted conflict because as long as 389 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 1: we provide support, just as you pointed out, Ukrainians will 390 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 1: not be defeated. And especially with the eight hundred million 391 00:27:53,920 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 1: dollar military assistants that Joe Biden recently authorized, they I 392 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 1: in good shape Ukrainians. But if Putin turns INT into 393 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: a grinding conflict and eventually would transform it into what 394 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,400 Speaker 1: is known as a frozen conflict, that achieves his mission 395 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 1: despite all the tactical incompetences. The strategic mission will be achieved, 396 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 1: which is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO because to 397 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: join NATO, Ukraine must have territal integrity and sovereignty and 398 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: not have an active conflict. And by just grinding it out, 399 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:37,199 Speaker 1: Putin will have his goal achieved. That's my assessment. So 400 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: you would expect this word to go on for a 401 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 1: good while, for a very good while. And do you 402 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 1: think that the Russian elites are either willing to tolerat 403 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: it or are helpless in the context of Putin's security systems. 404 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 1: I think it's both. The Russian state, the Russian culture 405 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 1: is known for something called vertical the power of vertical. 406 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 1: Putin is the main and he got elected four times, 407 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: and in fact, his approval rating has skyrocketed since the 408 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: beginning of his attack on Ukraine. It's at eighty three percent. 409 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: Right now, Let's just say some of it is due 410 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 1: to fear, right, because the Russian people are afraid. Still, 411 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 1: even if let's say it's sixty two, it's still you know, 412 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 1: any US president can only dream of sight ratings. So 413 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 1: even though the Russians are not anti war, they're pro 414 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: Putin generally because he keeps the system going and they 415 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: all dogs depend on him. He depends on all the dogs, Silviki, 416 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: the security services. They're not about to remove Putin and 417 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 1: I just don't see it. And besides, says you might 418 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 1: remember from my book, every single time Putin one in 419 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: his four elections, the runner up was a communist. Think 420 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: about who would come if Putin were slip on a 421 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 1: banana peal or get hit by a bus. So you 422 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 1: think that the desire to put Ukraine in its place 423 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: and potentially ultimately bring it back into Moscow's orbit probably 424 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: is actually a pretty deep national feeling, not just Putin, 425 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 1: I actually do. I know the Russians don't want the 426 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: annihilation or brooslav Ukraine, right, but most Russians believe Ukraine 427 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 1: as part of Russia and at least the part that 428 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: is called Novaresia, the New Russia, the Donbass area, the Crimea. 429 00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: As someone who was actually born and raised there. Cognitively, 430 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 1: I myself can't wrap up my brain around Ukraine being 431 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: separate from Russia. Yes, I understand intellectually you have to 432 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: follow the international laws. It's a new world now and 433 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 1: Ukraine's an independent country. But I'm like, how is that 434 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 1: even possible? And that's how Russians think. It's a visceral 435 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: level there a sense it's reunifying the motherland and bringing 436 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 1: back both with Belarussia and with Ukraine, bringing back the 437 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: lost children that belong to Moscow. Exactly. He wants to 438 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 1: be Catherine the Great, you know, and that's why he 439 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 1: wrote that famous white paper if you will, that Ukrainians 440 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: and Russians are one people. He truly believes that, and 441 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: it's not just him. There's a whole body of knowledge 442 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 1: that supports this view and the whole you know, Alexander Duggan, 443 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 1: your Asianism, that is where this is all coming from. 444 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: And in terms of Belarus, Belarus is already part of 445 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: the Union, right, they already call it the Union, to 446 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 1: the point where they have a joint military doctrine that 447 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:54,120 Speaker 1: Putna and Lukashenka both approved in November, and so Belarus 448 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: adjusted its constitution to allow for the hosting of Russian 449 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 1: nuclear forces on its territory. That's what it's giving me 450 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 1: a concern as well. Putin he's a long term planner, 451 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: and this is why I don't think he's just gonna 452 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 1: accept defeat, because everything is wrapped up in this, his legacy, 453 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 1: his perception of Russia's national interest and security, everything is 454 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,600 Speaker 1: at stake, and that's why he feels like cornered like 455 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: a rat, and he's gonna fight, you know, like that 456 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 1: rodent that he described, and his biography, there's a case 457 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: that is described when he was chasing a rat and 458 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 1: then all of a sudden when he chased it into 459 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 1: a corner, the rat started attacking him. So this is 460 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 1: why we see him potentially lashing out with nukes or 461 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: with chemical weapons, because he's so desperate and yet he 462 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 1: just can't give up. He can't climb off that tree 463 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 1: that he got himself onto. I want to thank you 464 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: both for having written the foreword for Zelenski, The Unlikely 465 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 1: Ukrainian Hero who Defied Putin and United the World, and 466 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:11,120 Speaker 1: for your book Putin's Playbook, Russia's Secret Plan to Defeat America, 467 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 1: which is certainly even more relevant now than was when 468 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: we did the podcast about it back in December. So 469 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,680 Speaker 1: I thank you so much for sharing your knowledge, your expertise, 470 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 1: and your insights, and I think in this particular time 471 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,240 Speaker 1: this is really helpful for you to come and share 472 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: with us. Thank you very much, mister Speaker. I am 473 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: very grateful to you for having me on your podcast, 474 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:42,239 Speaker 1: and Pope will talk again soon. Thank you to my 475 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 1: guest Rebecca Coffler. You get a link to the new 476 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: book Zelenski, The Unlikely Ukrainian Hero Who Defied Putin and 477 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 1: United the World, and you also get a link too 478 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 1: the great podcast we did back in December with Rebecca 479 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 1: about her book Putin's Playbook Russia Secret Plan to Defeat America, 480 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: both on our show page at Newtsworld dot com. News 481 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 1: World is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our 482 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 1: executive producer is Garnsey Slump, our producer is Rebecca Howell, 483 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:19,239 Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the 484 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 1: show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the 485 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 1: team at Gingwich three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 486 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,879 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate 487 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,279 Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so 488 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners 489 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 1: of news World can sign up from my three free 490 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:44,239 Speaker 1: weekly columns at Gingwich three sixty dot com slash newsletter. 491 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:46,919 Speaker 1: I'm newt Gingrich. This is news World.