WEBVTT - 1114: Regression Candidates 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:05.520 This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zach 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:13.800 j J zacher Reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:16.799 Esen in this episode eleven fourteen of the Late Round 0:00:16.840 --> 0:00:21.479 Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. People tend to 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:23.560 think of regression to the mean in a negative way, 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:26.840 that if someone regresses that someone got worse, they did 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.160 something great and then that greatness turned into goodness or mediocrity. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:34.519 But regression can work in the opposite direction too. Regression 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:37.800 to the mean is the tendency for unusually extreme performances, 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.360 whether they're really good or really bad, to move closer 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:44.160 to what's typical over time. If someone does something completely 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:46.800 out of this world, chances are he won't be able 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.840 to repeat that performance. On the flip side, if someone 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.120 gets all the opportunity in the world and just doesn't 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.080 come through, it's easy to assume that he's just bad 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:58.880 at football. But what if the evidence suggests otherwise. What 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:01.080 if he was simply on the wrang side of variants. 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:04.560 I say it all the time. I analyze fantasy football 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.000 through numbers because fantasy football is a game about numbers, 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:10.920 and regression is one of the biggest aspects of that, 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:14.680 extreme outcomes are often a mix of skill and randomness, 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.919 and while skill tends to stick around, randomness usually doesn't. 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:22.200 That's why regression is so important to understand. I'd argue 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:26.400 it's the most important concept in fantasy football. On today's episode, 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:28.840 we're going to dig into regression to the mean. We'll 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.280 look at players. We'll look at teams who are likely 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:33.840 to look different this season, not because they've suddenly become 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.120 better or worse, but because some of what happened in 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:40.880 twenty twenty five simply wasn't sustainable. Some players benefited from that, 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:44.520 others got burned by it. Understanding the difference can help 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.600 you identify some of the best values in your fantasy 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:49.440 drafts this year. Now, before get into all of that, 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:51.320 I did want to send another reminder to check out 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.800 the Late Round Draft Guide. There's over two hundred and 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:57.400 seventy pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways 0:01:57.400 --> 0:02:00.280 of spot, breakouts and busts, players to target, players don't void, 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:03.280 and more. You get cheat sheets in the guide, which 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.000 includes a cheat sheet of our new market score metric. 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:11.160 It's all updated weekly directly to your email inbox. Check 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:16.160 it out. Learn more at lateround dot Com. I think 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.320 the easiest place to start with this episode is with 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.239 the Rams now obviously a team led by Sean McVay, 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:23.359 and with the amount of offensive talent that they have, 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:26.600 it's gonna be good offensively, But that was also just 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.280 on another level. Last year. Now the Rams had Mike 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.840 Lafleur now coaching the Arizona Cardinals as their offensive coordinator 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:36.400 for three years. He got Matthew Stafford for fifteen, sixteen 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.720 and seventeen games during that three year stretch. The Rams 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:44.960 during those seasons through for twenty six, twenty two and 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:49.440 forty six touchdowns. Their touchdown rate touchdowns divided by attempts 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:53.639 four point five percent, three point nine percent, and seven 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:58.240 point seven percent. Since twenty eleven, fourteen teams had touchdown 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.880 rates of seven percent or higher in one season while 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:04.160 having played another, so the Rams obviously don't qualify for this. 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.040 Only one of those teams stayed above the seven percent 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:10.919 mark year over year, but that team, the twenty eleven Packers, 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:14.280 still saw decline and touchdown rate. They went from nine 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:17.600 point two percent, which is absolutely insane. I mean, that's 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:20.400 peak Aaron Rodgers stuff right there, but it went all 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.400 the way down to seven point two percent. Those teams 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:26.160 averaged forty two point one passing touchdowns in that high 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.760 touchdown rate season. On average, they fell down to twenty 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:33.160 nine point six passing touchdowns the following year. Now, some 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.280 of you are gonna say, well, they got DeVante Adams. 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:38.960 He drove this figure up, and yeah, for sure he 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.480 helped things out, but we also can't just assume that 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:43.800 something like that's gonna be sustainable year in and year out. 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.560 Adams in particular is really interesting because obviously he scored 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.240 fourteen times last year. That's a super high number given 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.480 the amount of volume that he actually saw, and he 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.119 was often just like used as their goal line back. Essentially, 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:01.360 his expected touchdown total was right around that mark. He 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.840 didn't actually outperform in the touchdown column last year, and 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:06.800 I would imagine a lot of people are gonna point 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:10.320 that out, that Adams won't regress because he performed around 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.960 expectation when it came to touchdowns last year. But my 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.680 argument against that is the fact that Adams tied for 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.200 the most end zone targets last year of any wide 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.520 receiver since twenty eleven, and he had more inside the 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:26.159 five targets inside the ten targets and end zone targets 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:29.680 per game than any other wide receiver in that sample. 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:33.719 His other peripherals were fine, and he converted at a 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:37.480 pretty normal rate. He just had so much volume around 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.640 the end zone that alone is just naturally going to 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:43.520 be difficult to repeat. And here's the math behind that. 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:47.159 Adams had one point nine to three end zone targets 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:51.680 per game last year, absolutely absurd. That number basically laps 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:54.880 every other wide receiver since twenty eleven. But if you 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.279 look at the wide receivers who had over one point 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:00.880 five end zone targets per game since twenty eleven, when 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.200 those guys played eight or more games the following year, 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.240 they've historically seen a thirty five percent drop from one 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.600 season to the next, and end zone targets per game, 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.560 and naturally they are points per game dropped by about two. Now, 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:14.919 this isn't to say that DeVante Adams isn't avoid for me, 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:16.920 though I have toyed with the idea because I am 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.480 a little bit below market. The reason it's not so obvious, though, 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:22.039 is because I do think the Rams are still going 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.160 to be really good offensively. But do keep in mind 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:28.640 that it would be shocking, legitimately shocking to see Adams 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:34.560 and Matthew Stafford repeat their twenty twenty five performance. So 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:36.960 all of that about the Rams, that's a more obvious 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:39.479 spot for regression this year. If you want to go 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:41.960 a little bit more outside the box, look at Baltimore 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:45.760 and specifically Mark Andrews. There's a very real chance of 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:48.240 Mark Andrews is just cooked. I don't think we know 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.200 for sure, but let's keep an open mind. With that 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:53.840 being said, last season he had a two point one 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:57.040 five yards after the catch per reception rate. That's according 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:00.840 to PFF. He's never had a season below three points 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:04.600 in that statistic, and even in twenty twenty four, if 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.080 you just want to say, oh, this is just Mark 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:10.280 Andrews getting old, he was at three point five to eight. Now, 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:12.720 the interesting thing is that Andrews had a lower average 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.440 up to target last year two. It was the lowest 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.800 of his career at eight point zero yards. So all 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.560 of that combined to give him just an atrocious one 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:24.599 point two to three yards per route run, the worst 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:27.200 of his career by a huge margin. His other lowest 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:29.799 was one point eight eight, which did come in twenty 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:34.080 twenty four. I would actually anticipate that number improving from 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:37.360 one year to the next. But there's a catch. We've 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:40.080 had thirteen tight ends since twenty eleven have a YAK 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:43.240 per reception below three and one year while hitting fifty 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.720 or more targets in that season and the following season. 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.400 Twelve of the thirteen players improved on that number year 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:53.400 over year, and eleven of them they escaped the three 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:57.920 point zero and below bucket entirely. On average, They've gone 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.400 from two point six yards after the catch per catch 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.799 to four point one to three. That's a strong improvement. 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.120 The problem is that even though they got better after 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.360 the catch, we didn't see a massive improvement in fantasy 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:14.040 production from those players. Now. Albeit it's a smaller sample size, 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:17.000 but one of the guys that sawid decline happen, the 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.480 only one who got worse year over year was end 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:24.280 of career Tony Gonzalez from twenty twelve to twenty thirteen. 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:28.080 So my stance here is that Andrews isn't necessarily a 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:32.480 total fade. He's just a sincerely risky bet even with 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:36.200 favorable YAK regression coming. Now, let's keep this theme going 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:39.400 with the Ravens. One area where Andrews could be helped 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:42.400 tremendously is with passing volume. I feel like one of 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:46.240 the most overlooked storylines in fantasy football is how unbelievably 0:07:46.320 --> 0:07:48.280 run heavy the Ravens were last year. Just in terms 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:52.080 of raw volume, Baltimore had their second lowest pass rate 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:55.600 over expected of the entire Lamar Jackson era last year, 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.800 but because they ran fewer plays and with Lamar Jackson 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:01.880 banged up, they finished the season with just twenty four 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.640 point eight pass attempts per game. Since twenty eleven, we've 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:08.440 had seventeen teams with next season data get to fewer 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:12.080 than twenty eight pass attempts per game. Those teams, on average, 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:14.840 saw an uptick of four point four pass attemps per game, 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:18.320 seventy six raw pass attempts to nearly four hundred passing 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:22.440 yards year over year. Just four of those teams stayed 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:25.120 under the twenty eight pass attempts per game mark, and 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:28.440 remember Baltimore was under twenty five pass attempts per game. 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.440 This is a key reason that Andrews might be okay, 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.800 and it's a bigger reason to be bullish on Zave Flowers. 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.439 The dude was an efficiency machine last year. He took 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:42.000 another step forward, and if he's able to see a 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:43.800 little bit more work close to the end zone while 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:46.600 the Ravens take a step forward in passing volume, it 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:51.920 could be a monster year for Flowers. I'm bullish on 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.800 the Eagles offense turning things around this year, and someone 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:58.920 who would benefit from that greatly is Saquon Barkley. Barkley 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.360 was disappointing last year from a fantasy perspective. He scored 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:04.920 fewer than fifteen PPR points per game. A huge reason 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:07.560 for that lack of production in fantasy, at least the 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:10.559 lack of production given his cost, was what he did 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:13.280 at the goal line. We know that Jalen Hurts is 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:16.240 going to steal touchdowns in that offense, but Barkley still 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.280 had fourteen goal line attempts last year. That was a 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:23.240 top fifteen number across the league at running back. Each 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:25.000 one of those running backs who hit at least fourteen 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.199 goal line rushes scored at least four times on those attempts. 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:33.360 Sakuon Barkley scored once. Now, obviously Barkley isn't benefiting from 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:35.760 the really short stuff at the goal line, but still, 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:38.480 this is really bad. We just don't have a large 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.040 sample of running backs who converted so few goal line 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.280 attempts one year, who then went on to see a 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.280 bulky number of goal line rushes the following year. It's 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:48.520 not to say that's going to happen to Barkley. It's 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.000 just such a rarity because he was so bad at 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:54.480 converting last year. With that being said, outside of twenty 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:57.520 twenty five, Barkley's converted about thirty four percent of his 0:09:57.520 --> 0:09:59.800 goal line rushes last year. To repeat, he was at 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:02.880 se seven percent. I would anticipate a nice bounce back 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:05.800 from him, at least at the goal line, allowing him 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.920 to get that double digit touchdown mark once again. And 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.880 if the Eagles offense does take a step forward versus 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.559 last year, that shouldn't even be at the detriment of 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:18.760 Jalen Hurts, especially because Hurts was far below his typical 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:22.200 rushing volume totals last year. But Philly just might score 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:27.640 more in general when talking about regression, of course, general 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.760 team environment changes are a big reason we see natural 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.480 shifts and statistics from one year to the next. We 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:36.600 should always consider context when we're looking at this stuff, 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.840 and that's important when I bring up these next two teams, 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:43.880 the Vikings and the Raiders both struggled last year offensively, 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:47.240 ranking bottom ten and drives ending and scores and drives 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:51.199 ending and touchdowns. They were inefficient on offense. That can 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:54.320 lower the number of plays that a team runs. If 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.720 they're not converting, they're not sustaining drives, they're not giving 0:10:57.800 --> 0:11:01.440 us more plays for fantasy purposes. But then on top 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.280 of that, they ran at a slower pace. Their seconds 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.080 per play rates were both bottom ten in the league. 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:09.800 That resulted in the Vikings running fifty six point one 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:12.560 plays per game last year. Vegas was at fifty five 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.800 point eight. Now Miami was in there too, but the 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.280 other two teams, they're a little bit more interesting given 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:21.280 the fantasy implications, but sure throw Miami in the mix. 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:25.599 Two sixteen teams since twenty eleven had fifty eight or 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.040 fewer plays per game run in a season. The following year, 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:32.199 those teams saw an average uptick and plays run per 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.560 game of four point eight. That equates to about eighty 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.880 more plays run across the season, and many of those 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:42.360 additional plays they converted to passing plays too, So I 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:44.720 think we should see a little bit more passing volume 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:47.760 in those two offenses this year. All of those teams 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.040 with very few plays run in one season, every single 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.000 one of them saw an uptick and plays run per 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:56.439 game the following year. With so much change in Minnesota, 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.760 given the probable starting quarterback, and then the sweeping change 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:03.040 in Vegas, we should expect more plays run for both offenses. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.360 That's great news obviously for the stud players like Justin Jefferson, 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:09.959 Ashing Gent and Brock Bauers. I'm not gonna throw Miami 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:11.880 in the mix there though, because I do think they're 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:16.720 in an incredibly unique situation. There's a lot of interesting 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.000 deep ball data with quarterback each year, and it's no 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:22.160 different this year. Drake May was a baller last year 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.000 on deep passes, and yes, of course there's ability embedded 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:27.959 in this. Some dudes are just better at converting throws 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.800 fifteen or more air yards down the field but make 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.320 it pleted over fifty eight percent of his passes that 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.800 traveled fifteen or more air yards last season. Among quarterbacks 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:38.880 with thirty or more of those types of passes, that's 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.720 only been done eight other times since twenty eleven, and 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.320 since twenty eleven, there have been twenty four quarterbacks who 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.680 had thirty or more deep and intermediate throws in year 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:50.679 en and in year en plus one, where they had 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.400 a fifty three percent completion rate on those throws in 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:57.120 that original year. So Drake May fifty eight percent. He 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:00.320 certainly falls into this group. Of those two twenty four 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:02.880 quarterbacks who had year over year thirty or more deep 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.760 ball throws with a fifty three percent completion rate, they 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:10.520 average a dropping completion rate of seven percentage points. Seventy 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.560 five percent of those players dip below fifty three percent, 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.960 and Drew Brees is a huge reason that that looks 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.000 as good as it does, because he appeared six times 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.640 on that list. He held at fifty three percent or 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:26.760 greater in three of those seasons. Meanwhile, these quarterbacks saw 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.600 a drop of one point two points per game year 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:32.440 over year, largely because they weren't converting on those deep 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:35.800 passes quite as frequently. Now I know the Patriots added 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.160 Aj Brown. I do think that Drake May is a 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.760 special player. He could easily buck this trend. It's just 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:44.480 something to keep in mind. You can look in the 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.520 opposite side of this though, too, because deep ball completion 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.720 rate it's a number that regresses. We see a decent 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:54.160 number of quarterbacks with below forty percent completion rates on 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.920 deep throws. There have been one hundred and forty five 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.360 of them since twenty eleven who were below that forty 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.319 percent mark and who had thirty or more deep ball 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:06.559 attempts in one year and the next year. Those quarterbacks 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.240 typically saw an uptick and deep ball completion rate of 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.200 about five percentage points a year over year, and they 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.920 usually increase their fantasy points per game as well by 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:18.400 a full point. That's not a huge shock, though. If 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.960 they're completing those passes more frequently, they're gonna score more points. 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.520 But this is good news for some relevant quarterbacks this year, 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:29.400 including Baker Mayfield, CJ. Stroud, Jackson, Dart Bow Knicks, and 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:34.080 Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is particularly interesting because he used to 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:36.880 have seasons above that forty five completion rate mark all 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.520 the time, but over the last two he's been at 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:43.160 thirty two and thirty six percent. That's pretty low. Patrick 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.240 Mahomes has not been good at converting deep passes the 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.880 last couple of years. It's not a guarantee that he 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.760 sees this massive uptick, but I do think that we 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.680 should project it to happen just strictly based on regression. 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.920 They just need their down the field threats to stay healthy. 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.080 A lot of those other quarterbacks had just named they 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:06.200 have additional help coming that should aid them in regressing. 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:10.640 To the mean, Jackson, Smith and Jigba just put together 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.000 one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons that we've 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:15.840 ever seen, and typically when things go really well for 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:19.760 a player, it's tough to repeat that production. JSN had 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.440 a yards per target rate of eleven last year. We've 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.000 had twenty eight wide receivers since twenty eleven who had 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:27.720 between ten point five and eleven point five yards per 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.680 target while seeing fifty or more targets in year en 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.320 and in year N plus one so one season and 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:38.160 the following season. On average, those players have seen a 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.160 dip in yards per target of one point eight. Their 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.120 PPR points per game it dropped by nearly one point six. 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:46.960 That's not the only thing that was pretty crazy from 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.920 JSN last year. He had a catch rate over expected 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.840 of plus eleven percent, and again, historically, players with rates 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.600 above ten percent they almost always regrets. Of the forty 0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.880 five since twenty eleven who are above that mark, the 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:04.440 average drop in actual catch rate was nearly eight percentage points, 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:07.400 and again those guys saw a dip in points per 0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:10.520 game of about one point five. The list goes on 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.960 and on. For JSN, he was great last year, phenomenal, 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.160 but he probably won't be as efficient this year. But 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.880 there is one area where things could look better for 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:23.000 him in twenty twenty six, and that's with overall volume. 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.520 The Seahawks had a minus six point seven pass rate 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:29.680 over expected last year. Teams who have been between the 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.400 minus five percent and the minus eight percent range since 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.640 twenty eleven, there's forty eight teams. They've typically seen that 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.680 number increase by over three percentage points year over year. 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:41.760 Pass attempts per game that raises by two and a 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:46.200 half in pass rates by about three percentage points. Seattle's 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.080 defense should be excellent again this year, but there's no 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:51.720 doubt that the Seattle offense was in a great situation 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:54.640 in general. Last year, they ran the fewest number of 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.680 plays in the league while trailing. We usually see some 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:01.360 volatility with defenses year over year, so odds are that 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.239 the Seahawks defense it won't be quite as good as 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.399 last year, and that could give the Seahawks offense an 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.560 uptick and passing volume, which hopefully will combat some of 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:15.159 this JSN regression. The last item today has to do 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:19.120 with the Arizona offense. I think the Cardinals are unbelievably 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.080 interesting this year for fantasy football. They have really strong 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.920 weapons and such question marks a quarterback. Well. First off, 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:28.000 I think it's important that we're all aware the Cardinals 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:30.600 led the league last year in pass attempts and at 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:34.320 over thirty eight pass temps per game regressions. Likely seventy 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.120 five percent of the teams with thirty five or more 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:38.840 pass temps per game over the last five years saw 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.960 fewer pass attempts than next year. All those dropbacks also 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.440 led to a lot of routes run for their pass catchers. 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.640 Trey McBride ran sixty seven more routes than any other 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:54.000 tight end since at least twenty eleven. I said this before, 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.199 but if McBride ran the second most routes at tight 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.679 end last year, or just tied for first, think of 0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:01.920 it that way, his same fantasy points per route run 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:05.400 rate he would have fallen from eighteen point six pper 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.440 points per game to fifteen point four, which is still 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:10.879 a great season, but given what he did in the 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.960 touchdown column, it doesn't look quite as great. It's a 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:17.119 little bit scary. But then Michael Wilson he ran a 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:20.360 lot of routes last year too. Only Jamar Chase ran 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:22.639 more routes in the regular season at wide receiver than 0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:25.400 Michael Wilson did, according to PFF, and it was by 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.440 just one route. We usually see wide receivers with six 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.600 hundred or more routes in one year. Michael Wilson was 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:34.480 at six hundred and thirty one. We usually see them 0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:37.680 fall in routes run per game by about four year 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:40.840 over year. That's something to keep in mind. Now, there 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:42.920 are still reasons to believe Arizona's going to be pass 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.480 heavy this year. They have a bad defense, and as 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:48.320 I talked about in the Schedule Analysis episode, their schedule 0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:51.639 is actually brutal, which means more negative game scripts and 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:55.439 more passing. But look, the bottom line here, there's just 0:18:55.560 --> 0:19:00.040 so much volatility. I'd anticipate a lower pass rate, and 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:02.479 I do think that with a healthy Marvin Harrison Junior, 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:05.840 it could flatten out some of that upside for everyone 0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:09.000 in this offense. No, look, there are obviously a ton 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:10.480 of different things that I could have talked about on 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:14.160 today's show because regression is everywhere in this numbers driven game, 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:16.439 but I wanted to call out what I think are 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:18.480 some of the biggest ones, some of the biggest items 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:21.040 when it comes to regression, especially at the team level. 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:23.920 Hopefully it made you think a little bit differently about 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:27.200 some of these teams and some of these players. That's 0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:28.679 it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:30.800 for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:33.560 Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are best ritching for 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:36.720 it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:39.520 me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:43.520 Thanks for listening everyone. As a reminder, the Late Round 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:46.800 Fantasy Football YouTube channel we will be live on Wednesday 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:50.000 at noon with the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. We're 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:52.239 also doing a lot of live stream Bestball drafts, so 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:55.880 make sure you subscribe YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF. 0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:58.600 We also have another episode of Becoming a Best Ball 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.760 bro dropping this week, and then later in the week 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:04.760 another episode of Late Round Perspectives. It's that time of year. 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:07.520 I'm so excited. I hope you are too. Talk to 0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:08.120 you guys soon.