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Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why for

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Speaker 1: six seven three six nine in New York, one five

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Speaker 1: to two seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume of Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my co host, my colleague, my

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Speaker 1: compadre celebrating twenty four hours after his birthday on the

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Speaker 1: podcast Fresh as a Daisy Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello,

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Speaker 1: saw him in another Chad One of those birthdays I

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Speaker 1: hated as a kid, but as I got older, it's

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Speaker 1: pretty good. Time. Got Christmas, New Year's and then my birthday,

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Speaker 1: so it's a on fun three weeks worked, Yeah, luckily.

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Speaker 1: I love my job and what I do. But I worked,

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Speaker 1: I went to my favorite spot, watched uh watched the

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Speaker 1: game and it was nice. I got to go to

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Speaker 1: bed at halftime. So my birthday present to myself was

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Speaker 1: a full eight hours of sleep, which I haven't had

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Speaker 1: and probably four months, so it felt good. Sleep in

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Speaker 1: just lay in bed and do nothing and gave myself

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Speaker 1: a little break. I was gonna say, what did you

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Speaker 1: do when you got to the place. Uh. Once the

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Speaker 1: first five minutes of the game were over, it was real.

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Speaker 1: It was time to go home. No, that's the best

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Speaker 1: feeling ever. People was like, well, I like a good

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Speaker 1: close game when I bet because I like it to

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Speaker 1: be fun. And I'm the other way. I want no sweat,

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Speaker 1: give me a blow at every time, or kill me.

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Speaker 1: Like if I'm on the TCU side, great, it's over.

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Speaker 1: I can go to bed a halftime. I lost that bet.

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Speaker 1: That was a bad bet. So I'm one of those

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Speaker 1: I don't like to be teased or sucked in. I

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Speaker 1: think I have any type of fate I wanna. I

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Speaker 1: want a quick death. So that was a nice win

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Speaker 1: where you knew two minutes and like you just said,

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Speaker 1: if you're on the right side, day not. I mean

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Speaker 1: that was class of college football one team. I mean

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Speaker 1: you you wouldn't see that A championship game you will

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Speaker 1: never see. I don't think our lifetime a team win

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Speaker 1: and they put up sixty five points, why the other

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Speaker 1: team puts up seven? I just don't think that's possible.

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Speaker 1: That was a very college football game of do you

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Speaker 1: see you you know on any given night maybe, but

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Speaker 1: that night they played a team that there's a reason

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Speaker 1: they have a munch of one star I mean five

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Speaker 1: star athletes. So that was just two different worlds. So

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Speaker 1: that was that was a good time watching. Georgia had

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Speaker 1: freshmen that looked like they belonged to the NFL like

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Speaker 1: they they are. He could be the example of why

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Speaker 1: you should just get rid of the rule that you

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Speaker 1: got to be in klage for three years playing in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, because these were grown men playing at a

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Speaker 1: different speed and a different caliber than their competition last night.

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Speaker 1: A couple of things I want to get to. We're

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Speaker 1: obviously going to talk about wild Card weekend. Great great

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Speaker 1: set of games, seven games over the course of the weekend. UM,

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Speaker 1: a few things that I want to do. I want

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Speaker 1: us to A. Let's shout out the Detroit Lions and

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Speaker 1: Dan Campbell who just come to fucking play. And that game,

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Speaker 1: by the way, the way the line moved played out

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Speaker 1: exactly the way we thought it would. We waited and

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Speaker 1: waited and waited for the Seattle game to end. Seattle

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Speaker 1: makes the kick, Uh, we know the Lions are out.

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Speaker 1: The line shot up, got up to five five and

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Speaker 1: a half. We said, play the Lions, wait for the line.

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Speaker 1: I got it at five and a half. You got it.

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Speaker 1: I think at five and a half to um and uh.

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Speaker 1: They not only did they cover, they won, but it

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Speaker 1: played exactly the way we thought it would. Fucking love

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Speaker 1: Dan Campbell was so good for the NFL. Love that

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Speaker 1: Lions team. They did everything we wanted to do next year.

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Speaker 1: Might have to fade him next year, but that's okay.

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Speaker 1: I love them this year they were our team and

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Speaker 1: as people know of this show, no one loves shooting

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Speaker 1: their own horns more than us. So that was one

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Speaker 1: of those weekends much needed. Got smacked around the weekend

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Speaker 1: before play my worst weekend of the year, and just

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Speaker 1: came out. Not that everything happened that we said, but

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Speaker 1: like it was never ending middle dreams, like that middle

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Speaker 1: play of hedging Titans, that hitting. I love that because

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Speaker 1: people can see what it's people hold on. Not that

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Speaker 1: people who are listening live on AMP or the podcast

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Speaker 1: wouldn't know. But we were touting not just the Lions

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Speaker 1: season win total. We were tied in the Jags to

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Speaker 1: win the a F c South when it was as

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Speaker 1: long as thirteen to one, we said, up until seven

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Speaker 1: to one, take it. We both bet that. Uh, we

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Speaker 1: played the Jags. We had that bet, and then we

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Speaker 1: both played the Titans at plus six six and a

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Speaker 1: half on Saturday night. Yeah, we got a very fortunate bounce.

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Speaker 1: I mean that was one of the latter screams I've

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Speaker 1: had all the year when he got striped sack and

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Speaker 1: that bounced right to him. That's like, yeah, one of

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Speaker 1: those moments. So that's the dream. And then that Chargers

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Speaker 1: Denver game, that's the definition of a pros game. Pro

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Speaker 1: came in. Most pros came in on the Denver in

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Speaker 1: a limited line of you know, three and a half three,

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Speaker 1: yeah right, And that that was one of those where

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Speaker 1: like I took it three and a half, took it three,

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Speaker 1: it went went to three the other way with the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: We said we liked it three. It was a rare time.

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Speaker 1: I said I wouldn't. It's not what I goes tell

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Speaker 1: people to buy the point. I was just like, roll

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Speaker 1: the dice and weight maybe I'll get up. Got very

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Speaker 1: lucky charge and went up to four a half. I

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Speaker 1: got it a four and a half on Sunday. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I saw four and a half early Sunday. More,

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Speaker 1: that's when I was like finalized everything I was doing.

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Speaker 1: It was just perfect middle play UM two games like

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Speaker 1: it's always funny with I don't want to call him informants,

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Speaker 1: but you do get a lot of you can yet

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Speaker 1: a lot of info from different teams, different things that

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Speaker 1: get leaked, blah blah blah, and a guy I pay

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Speaker 1: a decent amount of money to give me info. I

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Speaker 1: was literally seeing read about to kill this guy because

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Speaker 1: I bet my biggest betther day was Atlanta because that

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Speaker 1: good word that Brady was not going to play. And

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Speaker 1: what happens for first drive he comes and drives Field,

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Speaker 1: scores a touchdown. I go, okay, no problem. Gets that

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Speaker 1: first drive and gets a touchdown. That will be it

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Speaker 1: for Brady comes back out of for the next drive

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Speaker 1: and I'm literally like I was boiling of, like this

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Speaker 1: guy again, pay a lot of money for this. MFO

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Speaker 1: told me that was a really good tip. Brady was

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Speaker 1: gonna maybe do one drive if that UM got lucky.

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Speaker 1: Eventually Brady got taken out Atlanta came back at one.

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Speaker 1: Same thing with that Chargers game. I was told good,

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Speaker 1: good authority that we would not be seeing Herbert. They dude,

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Speaker 1: damn played near the whole game like he came out.

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Speaker 1: I think it was midway through whenever Mike Limbs got her.

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Speaker 1: I think the coach sharpened up and took him out

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Speaker 1: or it was like he took some type of hit

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Speaker 1: like sack. But yeah, that was that was a dream

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Speaker 1: chats where you get double medals, and like you just said,

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Speaker 1: we we hyped up the lines. I gave out what

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Speaker 1: our five would have been, UM was a four on one,

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Speaker 1: which was like again we wish, we wish our contests

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Speaker 1: went longer where we always do pretty well in these

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Speaker 1: last week so nice just for the fans of the

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Speaker 1: show again on the FOURUM one for picks and obviously

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Speaker 1: the show picks do good. I think our only bad

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Speaker 1: loss was that Brown's pick. So overall it was a good,

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Speaker 1: good end of the season. A couple of things. Number one, uh,

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Speaker 1: that Falcons one you came out of nowhere with on

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning because we didn't talk about it all during

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Speaker 1: the year, which I paid for. I give out the

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Speaker 1: free people. That's why it's always blows my one people. Bitch,

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Speaker 1: It's like you don't even know what goes on behind

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Speaker 1: the scenes. You came out of nowhere with that. On

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning. You talked about it and convinced me. And

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Speaker 1: I've learned enough to know that just because we don't

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Speaker 1: talk about a game during the week doesn't mean that

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Speaker 1: you're not going to go heavy on it as soon

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Speaker 1: and like, as soon as I hear you mentioned the game,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, fuck, he loves this game. And sure enough, Uh,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned it and convinced me. It's why people have

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Speaker 1: to watch. Convinced me before the games beyond Action Network HQ,

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network at me, Simon Raybond, croner Um

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Speaker 1: gave it out on my best bet article which closed

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Speaker 1: you at s for the season. All free, all not bad,

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Speaker 1: click on a link every Sunday. I was never worried

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Speaker 1: about Brady in that game, because they had said early

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Speaker 1: in the game he needed nine completions too and twelve

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Speaker 1: pass attempts to like set some new season long record

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Speaker 1: for him, and so I just assumed, all right, he's

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Speaker 1: gonna play until that happens. And it's basically what happened. Um,

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Speaker 1: the Broncos and Herbert we gave out Broncos as as

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Speaker 1: the exact decision on Tuesday at plus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: I decided and I bet the Chargers plus four and

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Speaker 1: a half. I decided I was fine if Herbert played,

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Speaker 1: because I would have bet the Broncos at plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half at home against Herbert and the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: It was the middle of the season, right, Like, I

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Speaker 1: just think the Broncos have a good defense. The Chargers

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Speaker 1: don't play well as favorites like I would have taken

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Speaker 1: that bet regardless, So I find myself being okay with

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Speaker 1: it whether Herbert played. Recap Foxhole. Was the Browns lost

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Speaker 1: that obviously? Simon says was the Titans um e D

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Speaker 1: was the Broncos plus three and a half, Big Balls

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Speaker 1: Rams plus six and a half. I think he wanted

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Speaker 1: us to be on the Saints, and I had to

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Speaker 1: talk to you off this Saints to go to the

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Speaker 1: Rams at plus six and a half. Season long scoot

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Speaker 1: roulette came down in the final week. You're the Titans

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Speaker 1: plus six. I had the Browns plus two and a half,

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Speaker 1: so you are the winner on that front. Congrats to me.

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Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears have the number one overall pick thanks

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Speaker 1: to Lovey Smith, former Bears coach, decided to get fired

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Speaker 1: and go for the win instead of instead of taking

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Speaker 1: the loss. UM. One more thing I want to do

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Speaker 1: before we get into it. Well, you know a year

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Speaker 1: the last time what last time the Bears of the

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Speaker 1: first pick overall? I think it was um and then

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Speaker 1: the last time they were in contention was seventy lost

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Speaker 1: a coin flip to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who drafted Terry Bradraw.

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Speaker 1: Chicago has been in that spot a couple of times.

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Speaker 1: The Bulls in seventy nine had a coin flip for

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Speaker 1: the first overall pick, lost it. Lakers got Magic Johnson,

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Speaker 1: Bulls got David Greenwood. That's crazy. Well three years later

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Speaker 1: we got four years later we got Michael I would say,

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Speaker 1: is a bearrass fan. It definitely broke your guys away,

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Speaker 1: like this is uh, that was crazy. All the little

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Speaker 1: things had to happen for What were you guys to

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Speaker 1: start the year? Do you have three ones to start

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Speaker 1: the year? I think we lost two on one. It

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Speaker 1: was something crazy like then you won one game the

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Speaker 1: rest of the way, So now we lost eleven in

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Speaker 1: a row. I think longest Bears and ever by the way,

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Speaker 1: it was the greatest losing season I've ever had as

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Speaker 1: a Bears fan. Like every week felt after that that

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Speaker 1: Washington Commanders lost on a Thursday night. Every week felt

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Speaker 1: like we were learning more about justin fields we were

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Speaker 1: still losing. He was giving us hope. You know, your

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Speaker 1: last win was Chad what it's what knocked us on

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Speaker 1: our survivor pool was that the Patriots. Jesus, that has

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Speaker 1: to be it. That's crazy. So that was the last

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Speaker 1: time you guys had won. All the season was to

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Speaker 1: knock this survivor. Look, now, we've got one of the

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Speaker 1: youngest rosters in the NFL. We've got more have space

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Speaker 1: than anybody. We've got a quarterback we believe in. We've

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Speaker 1: got the number one pick and don't need to draft

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young. I don't let people think that though if

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Speaker 1: I was that, I would tell people were happy to

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Speaker 1: drive Bryce Young. The market is open, baby, all right.

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Speaker 1: Last thing, we gotta get to wild card weekend. But

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Speaker 1: September one of this year, we did a podcast before

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Speaker 1: the season began and which you and I both gave

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Speaker 1: our seatings for what we thought the playoffs would be.

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Speaker 1: You go first, you give yours. I'll start for NFC.

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Speaker 1: So I gave out from my seventh seed, I thought

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Speaker 1: it was gonna be Lions. Sixth seed I thought was

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys. That seed I thought would be Rams. Fourth

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Speaker 1: seed that was forty Niners. Three seed had the Bucks

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Speaker 1: to seed green Bay, and then one seed the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: So Eagles made sense from my one seed. Gave them

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Speaker 1: out almost all summer about them being the one seed

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Speaker 1: having the easiest schedule. You go back and you look,

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Speaker 1: it's shocking that three teams from the NFC East made

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Speaker 1: into the playoffs. And that was my whole thing, was like,

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Speaker 1: we have a week to the vision. I just thought

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Speaker 1: to be Eagles and then maybe Cowboys sneaking in there

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Speaker 1: in the sixth seed turned out easily the best division

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Speaker 1: in the NFC. Eagles made it, Giants made it, Cowboys

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Speaker 1: made it. Um So my my big misses this year

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Speaker 1: missed on the lines, missed on the Rams, obviously missed

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Speaker 1: on green Bay, the two seeds, but looking back big

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Speaker 1: most people are in line with that that. I feel

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Speaker 1: like the general public like the Vikings, so I would

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Speaker 1: say most people that would be their flipping was for

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Speaker 1: green Bay. But most people looking back, what had green

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Speaker 1: Bay making it? So Um was right there. The Lions

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Speaker 1: for that final spot. Sam with Green Bay would have

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Speaker 1: been good either way, but Seattle the true chakra. Even

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Speaker 1: if I think back, I guaranteed I had a couple

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Speaker 1: of bets Seattle worst record. I just was not a

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Speaker 1: Geno Smith believer. So Um, big swinging and miss on

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Speaker 1: the NFC. Do you have your NFC ready, chat? I

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Speaker 1: do have a Vikings at seven. You got Cowboys at six.

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Speaker 1: I had the Hams at five, So we're all taking

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Speaker 1: a swing in a miss spo on that. I had

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Speaker 1: the Saints at four. Obviously. You know what happened was

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Speaker 1: I remember as the season got closer, a lot of

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Speaker 1: wise guy love on the Saints season win total over

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Speaker 1: and so I was just sort of taking a flyer.

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Speaker 1: And I think you drivers of the boat, Chad, you dadded, Brady, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's true. I had the Packers at three, I had

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Speaker 1: the Eagles at two, and I had the Niners at one.

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Speaker 1: There you go, you're there on the four nights. You

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Speaker 1: believe in? Was a trailer answer that, Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: I believed in Kyle Shanahan, and and that's kind of

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Speaker 1: been proven right Kyle Shanahan. It's like they used to

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Speaker 1: say about about like Chuck Noll, he can take yours,

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Speaker 1: take his and beat yours, and take yours and beat

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Speaker 1: his like bum Phillips used to say that, I feel

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Speaker 1: like car Shanahan could do that, right, he could take

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Speaker 1: like he could take the record. His record would disagree

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Speaker 1: with that statement, though he literally just crossed five percentage

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Speaker 1: this year. You know, I have an irrational left for

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Speaker 1: the guy. I just think he's brilliant. I do too.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's it's one of those where without

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Speaker 1: Jimmy g getting done really much in his career. But

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Speaker 1: Brock Purdy, I mean, I know we haven't talked about

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Speaker 1: it much. We will obviously once their game comes up.

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Speaker 1: But it's the craziest thing I can remember since I

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Speaker 1: mean Ben Roethlisberger, maybe as a rookie. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: guy is five and oh head into the playoffs. So

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Speaker 1: you want to do ANFC now, yeah, you go ahead,

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Speaker 1: you start all right, AFC. I did a little better, uh,

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Speaker 1: starting seven seed. I had the Bengals sneaking in six

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Speaker 1: seed Chargers, five seed, the Bills, four seed Jaguars, three

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Speaker 1: seed Miami two seed Ravens, one seed the Chiefs, obviously

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Speaker 1: the big miss. I had Miami overtaking the Bills winning

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Speaker 1: their division. Those are clearly cream of the crop this season.

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Speaker 1: I mean there was a couple of games Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: didn't play that well, defense picked them up and vice versa.

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Speaker 1: They were just what the Bill is expecting to be,

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Speaker 1: a very well coached team. No doubt in my mind,

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Speaker 1: even if two was healthy all season, maybe I'm a

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Speaker 1: closer battle to the end. That was the Bills of division.

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Speaker 1: They're just They're just the best team. Um Ravens, I

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Speaker 1: feel like that was a smart pick, even midway through

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Speaker 1: the season and taking them to be top seed. Lamar

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Speaker 1: got hurt. We just saw happened. They fell apart. I

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Speaker 1: had six out of seven. I think it shows you

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Speaker 1: sort of how the class of the a f C

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Speaker 1: and how how much parody there is in the NFC,

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Speaker 1: or just how much worse the NFC is in the

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Speaker 1: a f C. I had Chargers seven, Bengals six, Chiefs five.

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Speaker 1: That was a big miss for me. Jabs four. Here's

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Speaker 1: the biggest miss, Broncos three. You've been teasing me all

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Speaker 1: year about about my belief in Russell Wilson. I had

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Speaker 1: Ravens two, and I had Bills one pretty damn good. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm honestly, I'm thinking I didn't realize that I was

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Speaker 1: setting sudden the FC. That's that's shocking. But I literally

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Speaker 1: looked back now and it was pretty simple. I just

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Speaker 1: literally took the best when I viewed quarterbacks in the

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00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 1: kind of played out that way where NFC. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've heard it at nauseam. It's wide open because there's

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00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 1: no good quarterbacks. So yeah, that's exactly definitely the headlines

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Speaker 1: going into these playoffs. All right, Well, look, I thought

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Speaker 1: I was taking the best quarterbacks to I just assumed

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson was one of the best quarterbacks. He still Sally,

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Speaker 1: Me and Chad are gonna be all in on Denver

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00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 1: and most likely next year because that's a great biolo team, dude.

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Speaker 1: The luck ranking geniuses Billy Ward and Nick Giffin and

346
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 1: Sean Croner, they're already in the lab figuring out like

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00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 1: the best season wind total luck ranking options, um, and

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Speaker 1: I'm already anxious about it. And that way, NFL wild

349
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Speaker 1: West Virginia. Alright, first game, we're stepping up, by the

385
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 1: way this week. Reminder we will do big balls Foxhole.

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Speaker 1: Simon says, an exact decision, probably the last weekend of

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Speaker 1: the year. We can do it, just because this is

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00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 1: the last weekend. There's enough games to do it also

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00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: or nine and a half point favorites hosting the Seattle

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00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: Seahawks Saturday afternoon. I feel like this line's come down

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00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: a little bit. Used to be double digits. Yeah, smart

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00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:37,439
Speaker 1: group came in took look Seahawks for a lot of reasons,

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Speaker 1: which I'll go over right now. But I'll say this

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Speaker 1: before we're going to play the same thing I said

395
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Speaker 1: exactly last year. I am a regular season better than

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Speaker 1: the sense that I use a model. When you use

397
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Speaker 1: a model basically breaks down sixteen games and it's gonna

398
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: give you a couple of games that really stand out

399
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 1: on the best line value. How many games we got

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00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,199
Speaker 1: this week? Jed? Is it six? Yeah, it's six, But

401
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 1: we just lost ten games already, A small That's always

402
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 1: say about colleges the way to go. If you're gonna

403
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: bet a college, you're gonna bet football college. There are

404
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 1: way more games. We have sixteen games any week every week.

405
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 1: That's really tough. Now, we just lost ten. I me,

406
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 1: and you'd have six games now to go through. Last

407
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 1: year we killed it. I mean I don't. I'm pretty

408
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 1: sure you had to better me. I think you're a

409
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 1: twelve and three. I was living four our best bets

410
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: for all these games. That's that was amazing. I'm not

411
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 1: gonna put my chest out and say yeah, that's because

412
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 1: we're that good. Last year, every game I feel like

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00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,199
Speaker 1: it came down to three points. Like that was an

414
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 1: amazing here to bet underdogs because we kept, you know,

415
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 1: losing straight up, we kept covering those dogs. So it's

416
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 1: gonna be shocked to knowing, Like I'm looking at these

417
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 1: lines this week, I'm on a lot of dogs. And

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Speaker 1: if you want to go against my model, completely get

419
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: it because instead of getting sixteen games to model, I'm

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00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: getting six and that takes a ton of value away.

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00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 1: So I always say to people there's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: lot of secrepancy. There's a lot of pros verse pros

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00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. That's just how it is because it's

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00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: just so few games. So um a game right here.

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Speaker 1: I like, the really smart groups have come in heavy

426
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. I mean, what was that Thursday night game?

427
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 1: I think they won on a short week on the road.

428
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 1: This four team. The big reason for them is something

429
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: that I'm gonna talk about a bunch is this is

430
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: the time to fade first time starter quarterbacks in the playoffs.

431
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 1: It's rare where you get a first time started quarterback

432
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: that's a rookie, so you kind of throw that stat

433
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 1: out because you know as the first time starter as

434
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: well in these playoffs. So I'm my big reason I

435
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 1: know it's gonna The most public sign of this fort

436
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 1: And team is just that I've not that I've lost

437
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 1: total facing Gino. I just feel like it's been figured

438
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: out and I'm I love the story. Everything about it

439
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: was great. But he had what two picks in that

440
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 1: game against the Rams, Like he literally looked in Nimick

441
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: and it was Baker Mayfield that kept him in it.

442
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: He kept turning the ball of the right back again

443
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: them short field. So Brock Purty and untalked about story.

444
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 1: I know all these four fans are literally pulling their

445
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: hair out, especially once a Dam like, why don't you

446
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 1: guys talk more about how epic and how great this

447
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,119
Speaker 1: foeur Nis team is? And it's I feel like, what

448
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: is there left to say? Me and Chad always talked

449
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 1: about how great Shannahan is and how great this team is.

450
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna let it scare me off. The

451
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 1: big number. It's like, my I really want to take

452
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. It's a divisional game. I must always take

453
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: the dog in a divisional rematch in the playoffs. But

454
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: it's just everything in my body, everything just in my

455
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: model as well, Like I make this game eleven. It's

456
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: telling me that's a good number then for this four

457
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 1: nine team. So I'm on it. But if Chad is

458
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, I honestly get it, like you're taking

459
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: the divisional dog in this spot. It's just everything that

460
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: Shanahan acts a party to do, he does. And then

461
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: you're factoring McCaffrey in the rain, which you're calling for.

462
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if people are found this and they're

463
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 1: gettinghit by like a once in a generation tsunami. Right

464
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: in north northern California. There's bad rain, bad weather. Even

465
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 1: more favorites are really well coached, schemed up offense. And

466
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: we saw it last year. The two the two verse

467
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 1: seven seeds a big deal. The two seeds just just

468
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 1: I mean Bills, Bills in the Chiefs. You could flip

469
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 1: either want could be the one seed. Golos and the

470
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: forty niners, you can flip either want to be the

471
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: one seed. They're probably gonna blow them. The hell out.

472
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 1: So the fact that it's such a big number really

473
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 1: doesn't scare me off of this one. I'm just I

474
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: usually change things up in the playoffs. This is one

475
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: of those most people thought on the Seahawks I did too.

476
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: MODEL like forty nine and I like the n I

477
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: think that's a good number of good side we talked

478
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 1: about all season long, and you emphasize this. You have

479
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 1: to think about the circumstances and what's happening on the

480
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: field late in the year as much as you think

481
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 1: about the systems and the precedent and sort of how

482
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 1: these games historically play out. Yeah, I never even considered

483
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: the Niners here. I've kind of just been waiting for

484
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 1: the number to go back down. I think the game

485
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 1: opened at seven and then got bet up a lot

486
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 1: vandal thank you. They hung a six and a half.

487
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if they already fired that guy, but

488
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: that was the worst line I saw hung got a

489
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: penny down on the six and a half, got a

490
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: decent chunk down at seven, another decent chunks seven and

491
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: a half, and they just said forget it, moved all

492
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: way to ten. So it's it's been ten nine and

493
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: a half since that opening number. But yeah, fandal, I

494
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: would say they're the only book I saw open six

495
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: and a half. Most books opened seven and seven a

496
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: half and got bet up the eight and a half,

497
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 1: nine and a a half, ten and a half. Ten. Yeah.

498
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: I actually wonder if this might come down a little

499
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: bit more. But I like the Niners in every matchup.

500
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: The Niners are dominant defensively. I think the Seahawks have

501
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: been exposed. I think the Seahawks didn't win this past

502
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: weekend because of Gino. I think they won because of

503
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: mistakes made by the Rams. I think the forty Niners

504
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: are probably as good as the Eagles as a dominant team.

505
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: I love the Niners in this spot. It's weird to

506
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: say how much I love the Niners as a nearly

507
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: double digit favorite. No no, I would say, as an

508
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: Eagles fan, I am a static of people kind of

509
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: left them for dead. I've heard a couple of bookmakers

510
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: locally talk about the fort Nights come to Philly. They

511
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 1: got them pegged. Right now is at one point favorite,

512
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: So the forty Niners are I would say the high hyped,

513
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 1: most like team right now in the NFC. I mean,

514
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: it's very, very good vibes when you have a guy

515
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: step in and start five and up in his career,

516
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,360
Speaker 1: so it's we're gonna see him have a meltdown game.

517
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: It has not happened yet. Like this kid in every

518
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: game whenever they asked him to do like that Raiders again,

519
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: their Raiders put up a ton of points. This kid

520
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: kept the offense in it. So I don't know what

521
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: to makeup. I'm telling you, it's like Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger stepped

522
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: in on that Pittsburgh team as a rookie and they

523
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: had a great defense and a great run game. The

524
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: rest worked itself out. It's the same thing here. It's

525
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: like they just have all the pieces that are all

526
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: that was missing every year is that quarterback position. So yeah,

527
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: John Lynch could end up winning the Executive of the Year,

528
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: Shannon Coach of the Year just and incredibly put together

529
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: team before dinner. So they deserve it to be ten.

530
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: Deserve it between nine and a half. That they're deserved

531
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 1: that respect right now. By the way, the rain is

532
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 1: one thing that it makes me a little squeamish about

533
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: petting a huge number because there's so many, so many

534
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: things that that could go wrong. Chargers opened his two

535
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. This line has moved aggressively

536
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: on the road at the Jags. It's now down to

537
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 1: pick plus one. Why do I like the Jags here?

538
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 1: That's all. That's all your buddy, Simon. They're making that

539
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: line movement. This is one of my uh yeah, I

540
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: just been betting it since it opened. It's been betting

541
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: this one. Another game we got coming up where I

542
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: couldn't fight it, like, shoot, that's all a little high,

543
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: and I was like, yeah, that's exactly what they would do.

544
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: They would make the public Darling Herbert, the guy with

545
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: the more wins, the team that you know everyone's looking

546
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: down on this nine and eight Jaguars team a little

547
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: bit um just because Trevor Lawrence didn't play well in

548
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: that game against Tennessee. So two and a half was egregious.

549
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: One and a half made a little bit more sense

550
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: now that it's a pick. This is what it should be.

551
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 1: This game should be a pick. You can still find

552
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: one and a half you're listening live, I'd grab it,

553
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: or if your coward, you can throw in a teaser

554
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: with something, um, get teaser with the bucks. That will

555
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: be a game coming up. Just it's just a good

556
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: number on the team that I like this Jaguars team,

557
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: And we already talked earlier of the coaching matchup, to

558
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: me is the biggest difference in this game. I have

559
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: a coach in Peterson, I know exactly what I'm getting

560
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: from him. He does gamble, but when he gambles, it

561
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: feels more sound and like the reasoning behind it. Where

562
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: Stanley does it, it just seems like madness and chaos

563
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: with this Chargers team. So, um, I feel like not

564
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,479
Speaker 1: enough is being made up that Mike Williams injury. How

565
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: big of a deal it is to a team that

566
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: you know, having two receivers that are that dominant and

567
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. We saw how that kind

568
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: of flipped the Charger season when they both came back,

569
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: Like that's that's a big deal to that offense and

570
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 1: to Herbert himself. So I don't have a much info

571
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: on that yet, but I know with the Jaguars side,

572
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: they I think they're down. Um, it might be an

573
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, but overall they're pretty healthy. Receivers are healthy,

574
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: Travisy Gans healthy, and we saw yeah boasts got a

575
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: little banged up in that game. He came back in,

576
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: But Boast is a pass rusher, he's not really a

577
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: run stopper. So to me, that's where this game is

578
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: really flipped. Where the Jaguars are actually pretty good against

579
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: the run. We saw against Derrick Henry. They took that away.

580
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: That was pretty surprising. Um the Chargers not so much.

581
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: They still have big, big issues stopping the run. So

582
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: when these two teams played earlier this year, that's what

583
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: the Jaguars did. And Doug Peterson knows that. You go

584
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: back and watch the film. He ran a lot of

585
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: run pass options. So you got a quarterback and Lawrence

586
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 1: that ken run and a running back and Travis etn

587
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: that's incredibly quick and fast through holes. It's it's a

588
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: nice matchup for this Jaguars team. So makes sense if

589
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,719
Speaker 1: you look at the charge right now, the public, all

590
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: the tickets are coming on the Chargers. The money is

591
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: coming on the Jaguars. That's pro money betting this number down.

592
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: So if you do like the Chargers, maybe I'll wait.

593
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: It might be I'll get a better number if you

594
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: can't find a pick yet, I do think, like Chad said,

595
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: they'll keep going down towards the dry towards the Chargers

596
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: in this matchup. It's kind of interesting to me that

597
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: the Chargers would open his favorites, Like anyone who watches

598
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: football record, Yeah, but anyone who watches football can see

599
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: the jaz Wars have gotten better, better, better and better

600
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: over the course of the year. Yeah, more fundamentally sound,

601
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 1: more comfortable in the offense. And now you see the

602
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: way Doug Peterson is coaching them. He it's almost like

603
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: they've been layering, layering, layering, layering, right. They're opening up

604
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: the full playbook in ways, whereas the Chargers there there's

605
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: so much variants. You don't have any idea what Brandon

606
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: Staley is going to do. And sometimes he likes to

607
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: frame it, I think publicly as he and I'm not

608
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: saying he does this on purpose, but it gets framed

609
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: as he's so crazy it's genius. But sometimes I think

610
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: it's reckless. Honestly, I lets saying, you want to you

611
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: wanna do that? Fox wish I make this. Simon says,

612
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: because the lines moving. I feel like it's got to

613
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,719
Speaker 1: be Simon says, because the line is moving and you're

614
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: gonna lose the value soon. In fact. Yeah, so grab

615
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: the one and a half if you can. That's that's

616
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: a good number, it says Jack's plus one and a half.

617
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: Let's do it. We do what science says. Let's talk

618
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: about the Dolphins visiting the Bills. The Bills make me

619
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: want get your feels something, to throw your hand on something,

620
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: throw your hand back to Troa Now the Bills. I'm

621
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: making it happen. You know, the Bills are interesting past

622
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: few weeks against the Bears, against the Patriots, big numbers eight,

623
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: seven and a half, and they don't look good for

624
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: fifty to three quarters of the game and then like

625
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, they're up ten, they're up seventeen,

626
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: they're up one, like they have built a massive lead

627
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: and pummeled the team. Yeah. No, They've been good against

628
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: really bad teams. And I feel like we can all

629
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: most most of us can be in agreement here in Miami.

630
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: Not that good of a team. It's uh got issues

631
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: right now. And the biggest issue is there's no Ta

632
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: like Ta for all the critics and everything. Everyone knocks him,

633
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: he was running that offense really well. So I would

634
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: love to take my aim here. I mean, we just

635
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: saw Bill's team let the Patriots run all over them.

636
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: Uh that's kind of been Achilles Hill of this Bill's

637
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: team this season. Very fortunate with two kick returns in

638
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 1: that game that kind of made it impossible for the

639
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: Patriots to come back. It's just you got Mac Jones

640
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: already down fourteen because the two kick returns going against

641
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, who's just at another level. It's just never

642
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: gonna work out for that Patriots team. So I wanted

643
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: to take Miami, but I can't do it. And I

644
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: mean there's a bunch of reasons, but I try to

645
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: keep it simple. Stupid, especially in the playoffs. UM quarterbacks

646
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: making their first start, what is it since two thousand

647
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 1: once since two thousand two, there are fourteen and thirty

648
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 1: five against the spread. So Skyler Thompson whatever this dude's name,

649
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: is most likely making his first start. So the three

650
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: guys that fit that would be Jones, Skyler if he

651
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: is the starter, and Huntley if he is the starter

652
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: this week. So obviously Daniel Jones first career playoffs start.

653
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: Last year we had three guys make but also put

654
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 1: by the way, justin Herbert Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, uh sorry,

655
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: this is against other quarterbacks that haven't started it, so

656
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: basically those guys can't see, so they're out. Same with

657
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: the other game we just talked about what brought Purty

658
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: and Gino Smith. Yeah, I haven't played yet, so it's

659
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: only when they're facing quarterbacks that have played it. So

660
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: last year absolutely hurts um he got crushed, Kyler Murray

661
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: got crushed and Mac Jones got crushed. So that it's

662
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 1: a big deal. QB making us first start in the

663
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: playoffs against the quarterback that's been there before kind of

664
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 1: knows the speed of it and the difference that's a

665
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: huge number, Like this is what's killing me. Like the

666
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: same with the Sehawks, where it's like these are divisional matchups.

667
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: It's the third time they've played each other. What the

668
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: hell am I doing? Why am I not taking the dog?

669
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: But it's just between the quarterbacks in the coaching, I

670
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: think in both matchups there's big discrepancies. And you know,

671
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 1: give give Pete Credell, Pete Carroll of his credit for

672
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: what he's done with the Seahawks team. I I love

673
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 1: what Mike Daniels did, but he doesn't have the weapon,

674
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: which was too which was the reason they had won

675
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 1: all those games, and they lost five straight games. I mean,

676
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: the Jets gave that one away, um, and that matchup

677
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: against Miami, they just won't have the same opportunity against

678
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 1: this Bills team. I thought that was the game. The

679
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:27,919
Speaker 1: Bills were gonna have a letdown in that game after

680
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: everything they had gone through that whole week. For sure,

681
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: the offense would sputter, they'd have issues everything. It's like,

682
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 1: how's your head in football when you're thinking about your

683
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: brother who's still in the hospital this week? None of

684
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: that all right, It's just a completely different beast. They've

685
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: had a week to get over it. Just the Bills

686
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: at home Orchard Park and this matchup. Man, it's just

687
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: thinking about it makes me get fired up. It's it's

688
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: just a no brainer. Take the Bills here. Um, hopefully

689
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: you'll have a ten. I do think ten's a key number.

690
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: Not crazy about getting the ten a half, but if

691
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 1: that's what it is, that's it is. Um, I make

692
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 1: this number up to thirteen, So I do think you're

693
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: getting good value here. But once again, me and Chad

694
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: just talked about it's it is not like us to

695
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,720
Speaker 1: be taking such big favorites, but it's it's playoffs. It's different,

696
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: And I was gonna say, I'm looking at this board

697
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: right now, and I do feel like there's a lot

698
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 1: of stuff that's different for us in this game, in

699
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: the in this playoffs, like we're gonna talk about, I

700
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 1: agree with you, by the way, I love the Bills here.

701
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: I think I think that it's the exact right time

702
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:34,280
Speaker 1: to be betting them. The next game is the Giants

703
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: and the Vikings. Of course we'd automatically want to take

704
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 1: the Giants, but I don't feel that way. I don't

705
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: know what to do with it, because I'm right there

706
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: with you. It's like, I feel like this number should

707
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: be three and a half. The books don't want pushes.

708
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: They are not here for pushes. So them hanging this number,

709
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: I don't know what the hell they do with it

710
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: because I feel like you're right there right like they're

711
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 1: scaring me off taking the Vikings because it's three. Where

712
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, I'll just take the Giants. Last

713
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 1: time they played it, it was a three point game, right.

714
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: The Vikings won on the last second field goal from

715
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: sixty yards away. I'm just gonna go off what I

716
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: just talked about that fourteen thirty five quarterbacks making their

717
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 1: first playoffs start against the quarterback that has not played

718
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: that has played in the playoffs before, and Kirk has

719
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 1: played the playoffs, He's been in the scenarios before at home.

720
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 1: I gotta do it, Chat, It's just a good number.

721
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 1: Like I'm begging them to give me a two and

722
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 1: a half with the Vikings, but they're not doing it.

723
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 1: They're keeping it three. The money in the tickets for

724
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: most people right now is on the Vikings. So if

725
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: you are Giants better, maybe you get the three and

726
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: a half. But um, definitely one of those lines. I'll

727
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: just watch all week. I haven't bet it yet. I'm

728
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: just gonna wait and watch. Maybe it goes to two

729
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 1: and a half. Maybe it goes to three and a half.

730
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 1: It goes three and a half, I'll probably be sucked

731
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: in take the Giants, but two and a half three.

732
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 1: I like the Vikings. I'm a waiting on this game

733
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: right and just I don't I don't feel rushed. I

734
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: can be patient if it stays where it is. You know,

735
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: it's the opposite of how you feel that a lot

736
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: of the games we've just been talking about, whether it's

737
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: the Niners at nine and a half, or the Bills

738
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: at ten or ten and a half, or even the

739
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 1: Jaguars at one and a half, which is still available

740
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: with fan duel. I just bet it using a quick

741
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,439
Speaker 1: slip on Action Network app. No advantage here. I either

742
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: want the three and a half or I want the

743
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 1: two and a half. The Baltimore Ravens just signed ro

744
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 1: Kwan Smith to a one million dollar deal. Was sixty

745
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 1: million guaranteed, you told me in Matt Mitchell bat before

746
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 1: we came on the air. Obviously, as a Bears fan,

747
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 1: I loved ro Kwan Smith, didn't hate that they didn't

748
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,839
Speaker 1: resign him. But this Ravens defense since he joined has

749
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 1: been unbelievable. And here's a few stats that Evan Abrahams

750
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: sent me that I read on green Dot Daily. I

751
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: say red because it's basically what I did read on

752
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: green Dot Daily, our daily show Action Network app at

753
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: could Neggy actual first nine weeks of the season before

754
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 1: ro Kwan Smith joined the Baltimore Ravens on October thirty one,

755
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 1: Ravens were tenth in d v o A against the

756
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 1: past After seven Ravens have allowed a hundred and thirty

757
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: two total points since Week nine, the first ro Quan game,

758
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: second fused in the NFL Sundstisco just eight passing touchdowns

759
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: and since week nine, allowing Patrick Queen to move over

760
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 1: and get into a different position, three sacks amongst linebackers.

761
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 1: That's fourth Queen and ro Quan together nineteen QB pressures

762
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: since week nine, third most amongst linebacker duo's also their

763
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 1: d v O A against the versus the rush improved

764
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 1: from twenty to three. I love the Ravens defense. If

765
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: I can get anyone other than Anthony Brown. It's hard

766
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,439
Speaker 1: enough to play them against the Bengals. I'm completely thrown

767
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 1: out the last game. It was a matchup where both

768
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: these teams knew they were going to play each other.

769
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: I feel like the Ravens kind of fell on their

770
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 1: sword where it's like we're playing our third stringer quarterback here,

771
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: like we're not going to be a fully healthy Bengals team.

772
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 1: But the game they did play earlier this year, obviously

773
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 1: it's different because Lamar played in it. It was a

774
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 1: nineteen seventeen absolute battle and it's just a back and forth,

775
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 1: slug it out fast. That's exactly what we're going to

776
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: get here. People. And that's what's hilarious. All the money,

777
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 1: all the bets are pointing on the Bengals. That is

778
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: so risky to me, so risky. This this matchup screams trap.

779
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,479
Speaker 1: Everything about it is a trap line. Uh. The fact

780
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 1: that the bookmakers hung it, they literally hung it Sunday

781
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: without knowing any information on Lamar. They hung a six

782
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 1: pros game in I know a couple of really smart

783
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 1: guys that came in took it up because they were like,

784
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: this is gonna run up to seven and a half. Eight.

785
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: They didn't move to half a point. They moved to

786
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: six and a half. And it's just been sitting there

787
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 1: for almost seventy two hours now. So you better really

788
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 1: do some soul search. And if you listen to the

789
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 1: show and you instantly bet that Bengals team, you should

790
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: know better. Uh this this this one of those lines

791
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 1: we don't do here and Chad nailed it. It's gonna

792
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 1: be a defensive battle. Not enough people are realizing that

793
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: the Bengals have lost key guys on that offensive line

794
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 1: that's going to be a big deal against I really

795
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 1: really tough front that this Ravens runs out there. So

796
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 1: looking at the matchup. Go ahead, tease tea since I

797
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: think I still think since he wins, I think they advance.

798
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a three point game.

799
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 1: The fact that it's six and a half makes the

800
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: books tell me it's gonna be a six pointer. Maybe

801
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 1: it goes over time, whatever it is. The books are

802
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: really staunched on their belief the Bengals will win. But

803
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 1: they will win this game by six. Please everyone coming

804
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: and bet this bangles team in six and a half.

805
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 1: So um, interesting move by the bookmakers fading my own

806
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: model as well. My model has this at seven, so

807
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: it means the value right now is on the Bengals.

808
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 1: I just do not trust it. It feels like an

809
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 1: incredible trap line and a really tough a f C

810
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 1: North Division that's just always a battle, especially in the playoffs.

811
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it. Yeah, this um, this

812
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 1: to me should be our fox Well, how do you

813
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 1: feel about it? You know me, regardless of what's going on,

814
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I

815
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 1: commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Love it,

816
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 1: love it, want some more of it? Was thinking the

817
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: exact same thing. Yes, Ravens plus six and a half,

818
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 1: and I will say, like pros line by far pro's

819
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: line in the week, it's truly only pros are betting

820
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:12,759
Speaker 1: this Ravens, the pros and the books. That's who needs

821
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 1: the Ravens. It stays the same. If it's uh Tyler Huntley,

822
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: I feel like it moves up. If it's Anthony Brown,

823
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 1: and then I'd probably stay away and it goes if

824
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: it's Anthony Brown's the same thing we did last week

825
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 1: with Nathan Peterman was named the starter against the Vikings.

826
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: You buy out of your position. I think, even if

827
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 1: it's a ship number, you buy out your position just

828
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: get peace of mind. Yes, it would be brutal, obviously

829
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: if you lose both. I can't see that happening with

830
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: that kid. So um to me, turn on turn on

831
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 1: your alerts with Twitter, wherever your file that gives you

832
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 1: your NFL updating news. That would be a big deal.

833
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 1: If it's not Lamar, if it's not Huntley, if it's

834
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: if it's a third stringer, that that would be pretty terrifying.

835
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: But I honestly probably let it ride. I probably wouldn't

836
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 1: buy on my position. I'll just hit I'll just hit

837
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: the Ravens if they get up to ten. I'm just

838
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: it's whatever. It's me at this point. I just believe

839
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 1: in what you just talked about. Just believe in this defense.

840
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: I believe in the run game, the coaching, everything with

841
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: the Raymonds. I just loved this spot for this team.

842
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: This is one of those where I'm gonna dig in

843
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: and I'll bet it all week most likely. Um, But

844
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: like Chad just said, I'm not gonna bet too much

845
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 1: yet because I really want to know it's going to

846
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: the quarterback position. We're on a Tuesday. We will know

847
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 1: for sure by Thursday, midday Friday if Flamar is gonna play.

848
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 1: If he does not practice today Tomorrow Thursday, it's a

849
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 1: done deal. I just don't see hardball. Let him do

850
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 1: a walk through Friday and playing in this game. So, UM,

851
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 1: wait and see if you like. I just grabbed the

852
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: six and aft to be safe in case it was

853
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: Lamar and the Strops town to six. Alright, So the

854
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: last game on the board the Monday nighter Cowboys visiting

855
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 1: the Buccan years. Um, I want to say that I

856
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 1: loved this game when it was plus three for the Buccaneers.

857
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 1: Those threes I'm looking right now, That's why I'm sort

858
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 1: of hesitating for a second. Those threes are no longer available.

859
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: It's two and a half across the board, and by

860
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: the way, it's headed towards two pretty fast. I'm looking

861
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: at a bunch of different books. It's reduced juwe said

862
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: every book plus one oh four at FanDuel. It's a

863
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 1: plus one hundred at another book, plus one oh five

864
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 1: at another book. So you're not gonna get that two

865
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: and a half much longer. I still like the bucks here, though,

866
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: because I don't trust Mike McCarthy. I think he's a

867
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: bad situational coach. I think Dak Prescott has not looked

868
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,879
Speaker 1: sharp since coming back from his injury. Books in seven

869
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,439
Speaker 1: straight games against a past defense that is really good.

870
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: So that alone, and I don't mean just like yards,

871
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: I mean yards per attempt sacks top ten. They're just

872
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: a sound past defense. And Tom Brady all of a

873
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,439
Speaker 1: sudden is setting records again at forty five years old.

874
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 1: And in Week seventeen, the last full game, he played

875
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: through four and thirty yards and had his full complimentary

876
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 1: receivers and they looked amazing. I'm getting a better quarterback,

877
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: a better defense, potentially against in a matchup. And by

878
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: the way, the Cowboys given up like twenty seven points

879
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: a game the last five games against not very good quarterbacks. No,

880
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 1: it's Jad's right there, that's what. So that's what Bruto though,

881
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: because we talked whatever was nine this morning, I I said,

882
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: there's only one game I wanted to give out right

883
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: away early in the morning, was that Tampa game because

884
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 1: that line was gonna move. And that's what stinks. Like

885
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 1: we had to wait for the show, and by the

886
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 1: time we do our show the lines two and a half,

887
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, would still take it, But it feels

888
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 1: weird because I know me and Chad we both got three.

889
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 1: We've been bet in the three, and I'm gonna still

890
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: take the two and a half. But yeah, if you

891
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 1: if you missed the three, you can take the two

892
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: and a half, but it might keep dropping. You'll probably

893
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 1: just end up taking their money line anyway. So for

894
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: this matchup, Chad nailed it. It's you're basically back in

895
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: Brady against a really, really, really bad secondary and all

896
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 1: the weapons are back, like Godwin's fully healthy, Evans is

897
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: healthy playing, and Govin and the slot is gonna be

898
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 1: a big deal. Mike Evans outside, it's gonna be a

899
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: big deal. But that that, to me, is gonna be

900
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 1: one of those things of it's gonna be Brady versus

901
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 1: Dad d line of the Cowboys. That's what. If you're

902
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: gonna back the Cowboys, you're not backing them because you're

903
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: just like, oh, Dad should tear them up. No, no

904
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,280
Speaker 1: one's got faith in Doc anymore. He uh, he tied

905
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 1: the league and interceptions and he missed I think four

906
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 1: or five games. Like that's that's a bad season. Um,

907
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: I know he's no good, Simon, no good. I know

908
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: he's got his defenders. But facts your facts. It's just

909
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: that he's putting a really good situation with a really

910
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 1: good offense that Cooper Rush was able to win with

911
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 1: that should be playing better. He just hasn't been. So

912
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 1: we knew weeks ago this matchup is gonna be what

913
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 1: it is. We talked about it, we knew we were

914
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,919
Speaker 1: gonna be on Brady Brady's career. It's the stupidest step,

915
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: but I love it because it's just it means something.

916
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 1: He has never lost to the Cowboys. He's seven and

917
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 1: on his career against the Cowboys. That was crazy. I

918
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: hung at three. I I I think they hung it

919
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: because they expected the public to forgive the Cowboys on

920
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: laying such an egg against Washington. But no one is, like,

921
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,840
Speaker 1: people do not trust this Cowboys team in the playoffs.

922
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 1: Everyone knows all the jokes and the memes about how

923
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 1: you're relevant the Cowboys have been since the nineties, Like

924
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 1: they're just a team that performs well in the playoffs

925
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 1: and then let you know, let things go wrong in

926
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Same with McCarthy. That's why I never will

927
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 1: get the hiring. It's like you're hiring a guy that

928
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: he had won one Super Bowl on a year that

929
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers having out of body experience, Like you go

930
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: back and watch that tape, um it might have been.

931
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 1: Rogers was out of this world good on that offense.

932
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 1: And that was nothing to do with McCarthy. He doesn't

933
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 1: have that in Dak, Like there ain't no having to

934
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 1: come in insane run here with Dakdak is going into

935
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: this playoffs as low as one can. Feel like he

936
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: completely laid an egg last week. So me, Chad hate it.

937
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 1: Like if they would have blown out Washington, we would

938
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: have got three three and a half on Tampa here

939
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 1: that would have been a gift, would have been amazing,

940
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: but they loaded total egg. We don't care. We're still

941
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,240
Speaker 1: gonna take the value. This line is closer to minus

942
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: one for the Dallas. That's what I make it. We

943
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 1: were getting free points here and just an overreaction of

944
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: the Bucks are bad. But like Chad just said, they're

945
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 1: not as bad as they were in the middle of

946
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,399
Speaker 1: the season. They've gotten guys back, their defense has gotten

947
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 1: health here. The offense, the offensive line is still bad.

948
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 1: I'll give them that. They still have a lot of

949
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 1: issues offensive line for this Tampa team, but they have

950
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: the wide receivers now, so I don't if it's gonna

951
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: be quick passes whatever Brady is gonna do. You're getting

952
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 1: one of the most clutch quarterbacks in football as a

953
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:40,800
Speaker 1: dog at home against one of the most unclutched quarterbacks

954
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 1: and coach and football so um, a little foreshatting is

955
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 1: most likely to be one of our big balls. Bet

956
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 1: uh next next show. But we want the three give

957
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 1: us a three, bookmakers, so hopefully it gets back to

958
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: a three. I feel more confident taking that three six games.

959
00:47:55,680 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 1: As you noted this weekend, we have three dollars that

960
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 1: we like two of them home dogs Bucks and Jags

961
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: short home dogs Ravens were betting the six and a

962
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 1: half right now, and then we like two huge What

963
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 1: the fun? But hey, in our defense, they're both home,

964
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,280
Speaker 1: so we're not. We're not some psychosts taking big favorites

965
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: on the road. They're both home but too cute. And

966
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: I feel like in this round that's where you might

967
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 1: see stuff like that. Yeah, just in general though, like

968
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: I saw last week, I had a lot of people

969
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: reach out. Um I basically was an island taking the

970
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 1: Chiefs against the Raiders. Like someone sent me. Everyone had action,

971
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 1: had taken the Raiders, and I was the only that

972
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: didn't take the Raiders. And I told him, well, I

973
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 1: don't feel too much confident. I'm just betting the number

974
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:45,479
Speaker 1: where I think it's a good number. And it worked

975
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: out for me. This following game, the guys, same guy

976
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 1: messing me, goes, all of you guys are on the

977
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 1: Titans again, should I go to Jaguars and fade you guys?

978
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: I was like, dude, it does not work that way.

979
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 1: You can't just keep blindly fading people. I was like,

980
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: that does not work long term that way, and that

981
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: feels like the same anything with here where we regular

982
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 1: season would probably be taking these big these big dogs

983
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: if it was the middle of the season, but it's

984
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 1: the playoff time and we've just seen head coaching the quarterbacks.

985
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 1: It's just it's the big reason these lines are what

986
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:15,839
Speaker 1: they are, so uh to me, don't feel great about

987
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 1: taking those big favorites, tad. I would say my favorite

988
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 1: bets right now are those dogs we bet. But I

989
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 1: do like the Bill's number. I think you're getting good value,

990
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: and same with the Fourtis, both numbers I'm not allowed

991
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: as a good value. So I do feel confident right

992
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 1: now betting them. Would you put fewer units on the

993
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 1: big favorites, No, but I'm more likely to take a

994
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 1: coward move and tease them, Like I hate doing teasers

995
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:38,399
Speaker 1: for the most part, because I do. You do lose

996
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 1: value for them like long term taking teasers. But that's

997
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:43,839
Speaker 1: one of those where I can't fall people if they

998
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: tease these two where they tease um, you know, the

999
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 1: Bengals down and tease Tampa up, or tease the Jaguars

1000
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 1: up and tease down the Bengals. Like there's just a

1001
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 1: bunch of good teaser options. This week because if you

1002
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: take it down from the ten, you're taking them through

1003
00:49:57,600 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 1: the seventh. That's the reason you're teasing it. You're just

1004
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 1: trying to cut to get it down through the seven,

1005
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: which obviously is a key number when these two teams

1006
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 1: play on that Thursday night the final was the forty

1007
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 1: Niners and Seahawks. Like teasing that number down whatever it was,

1008
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 1: that definitely interesting worked out for those people. So um.

1009
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 1: To me, I'm not the biggest teaser guy, but playoffs,

1010
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 1: I completely understand why people tease down these numbers. What

1011
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: do you have the Bills Dolphins power rated at? I

1012
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 1: know you have the Jet the Niners Seahawks at eleven

1013
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: in the games at nine and a half? What are

1014
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: the Bills fans with Skyler? That's what I'm assuming it's

1015
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: Skylar to what could happen? Like, seriously, people keep competitioning

1016
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 1: about their like, how can they allow this to happen?

1017
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 1: It's an independent doctor, It's literally someone not affiliated with

1018
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: the team. The heagle will go and get cleared by

1019
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 1: if he's able to play, Miami will play him. That

1020
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 1: to me is the difference here, where if this number

1021
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:51,360
Speaker 1: kind of feels like it will drop, if it is

1022
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: to uh, um, if it's Skylar, and if it's definitely Skylar,

1023
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 1: I do feel like it's gonna go up a little

1024
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 1: more so with Skyler in there. I have a thirteen

1025
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: with toa I got alway down to eight and a half. Wow,

1026
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 1: it was worth a lot, okay, just for sure compared

1027
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: to uh Skyler, who's their first stringer. Makes sense? Makes sense? Alright?

1028
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 1: Uh Foxhole, we got the Ravens plus six and a half,

1029
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 1: Simon says, Jacks plus one and a half. Exact decision

1030
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: bucks plus two and a half, the choice between the

1031
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:31,280
Speaker 1: unthinkable and the impossible executive decision. We also lean niners,

1032
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: we lean bills. Were waiting on some movement for the

1033
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 1: Giants and the Vikings. It is weird are having a

1034
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 1: much smaller slate this week. I know our Thursday show

1035
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:42,919
Speaker 1: is gonna be like twenty five minutes. I'm sure Matt

1036
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 1: Mitchell loves that. Yeah, right, exactly, all right. This has

1037
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 1: been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. Guy him

1038
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:54,720
Speaker 1: Chad Mollment. He is Simon Hunter for producer extraordinaire Matt Mitchell.

1039
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 1: Download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get

1040
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 1: your podcast rate review, subscribe, leave this five stars feedback

1041
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 1: as a gift. Listen all the way through. You must,

1042
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 1: you must, you must listen all the way through until

1043
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 1: next time. I Love you. H Action Network reminds you

1044
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

1045
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, help is available. Seven gambler