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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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Speaker 3: And we begin this hour with stocks rising as risk
Speaker 3: appetite returns after a stretch of volatility. Amy Silverman of
Speaker 3: RBC Capital Markets writing, there's actually a lot more hedging.
Speaker 3: There's a lot more demand for hedging than is currently
Speaker 3: priced into the market. The risk of missing out is
Speaker 3: almost worse than the risk of a drawdown. And I'm
Speaker 3: pleased to say that. Amy joins us now and Amy.
Speaker 3: Matt and I were talking to you about a week ago,
Speaker 3: in the midst of some of this downturn in the market.
Speaker 3: You were talking about the shadow hedges, the desire for hedges,
Speaker 3: and the places people were turning to get them. How
Speaker 3: has that evolved over the past week as markets have recovered.
Speaker 4: I think part of the problem that I had described
Speaker 4: was this idea that there is actually a lot of
Speaker 4: concern about the fragility of a lot of the trades
Speaker 4: because they're not only related to AI, they're related to
Speaker 4: the concentration risk that you see in the mag seven.
Speaker 4: But obviously this year it's been much more about that
Speaker 4: upcrash being something that investors have to be concerned about,
Speaker 4: that fear of missing out, And so when you do
Speaker 4: get the down days, you get a little bit more
Speaker 4: pile on and you do see that in the SKW
Speaker 4: in the market, meaning that downside demand remains quite sticky.
Speaker 4: Even when you reverse the market moves and you have
Speaker 4: more updates, that SKEW hasn't quite changed as much, because again,
Speaker 4: that fragility is at top of investors' minds.
Speaker 3: What about the treatment of tech amy because before it
Speaker 3: was a market that was pricing in all the AI
Speaker 3: winners all be that that they would all be winners.
Speaker 5: Things have started to change.
Speaker 3: We're looking at another day of Nvidia losing in the
Speaker 3: pre market and Alphabet gaining. Has the treatment of these
Speaker 3: stocks shifted? Has that narrative and the way we price
Speaker 3: it in started to move.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think to some degree that actually might
Speaker 4: be a good thing. So one thing we look at
Speaker 4: isn't just inter stock market dispersion, but obviously inter mag
Speaker 4: seven dispersion. And so you know, on a day where
Speaker 4: you have Nvidia going down but Google going up, and
Speaker 4: obviously that story is tied to each other, then it
Speaker 4: becomes maybe something that's also more diversified, because one of
Speaker 4: the biggest concerns has been if correlation rises because it's
Speaker 4: all one big trade, it's quite incestuous. That fragility is
Speaker 4: not good for the market, even in a time when
Speaker 4: things are going up. So if it is the case
Speaker 4: that one is more of a diversifier for the other
Speaker 4: and you don't get that spiking correlation, I know, for
Speaker 4: our investor base when they're thinking about weltility and hedging,
Speaker 4: that is a big component in the market market structure
Speaker 4: that you know, it's very key for how they diversify
Speaker 4: the portfolio.
Speaker 6: Don't we necessarily have less correlation now among the mag seven? Right,
Speaker 6: they were all working together, investing in each other. It
Speaker 6: was a very incestuous circular.
Speaker 5: Economy.
Speaker 6: And now you've got one against the other. It seems
Speaker 6: like it would reduce correlation and maybe even reduce concentration risk.
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly exactly, Matt. So it's that diversifier aspect that
Speaker 4: is important. I mean, I think the thing is there's
Speaker 4: still that incestuousness hasn't fully gone away, you know, and
Speaker 4: that's not just in terms of what kapax investments are,
Speaker 4: but obviously there's issues on the credit side as well
Speaker 4: that investors are watching for. So I don't think, you know,
Speaker 4: this alleviates the whole picture. But I actually think even
Speaker 4: though it's like Google is going up in videos going down,
Speaker 4: the way that investors are thinking about it is we
Speaker 4: at least my implied correlation on the intermag seven is
Speaker 4: something that could be a diversifier. So this whole market
Speaker 4: isn't all reaching at once.
Speaker 5: Amy.
Speaker 6: How strong does the retail bid look to you right now?
Speaker 6: Because we finally had more than five percent draw down,
Speaker 6: just barely, but it happened from peak to trough last week.
Speaker 6: Our retailer is going to continue to be buying the dip.
Speaker 6: Is that still a huge presence in this market?
Speaker 4: So it has wane and you've seen that in some
Speaker 4: of the sentiment markers, Matt. But it is something that
Speaker 4: you know, we're watching very closely because I think one
Speaker 4: thing we've talked about is the reason that investors have
Speaker 4: that institutional misters, just to be clear, have been afraid of,
Speaker 4: you know, really piling it on hedges. That's why we
Speaker 4: call it shadow hedging, is that retail bid has continued
Speaker 4: to stay in the market. Now there are these extraneous forces,
Speaker 4: so for instance, how cryptocurrency is doing, how other factors
Speaker 4: are doing that are actually quite correlated to that retail bid.
Speaker 4: So we are watching those extraneous factors closely as well,
Speaker 4: because it is interesting to see when you you know,
Speaker 4: like crypto is always supposed to be this hedge asset
Speaker 4: that in reality is a risk asset, and then it's
Speaker 4: also very correlated to that bit that you see in
Speaker 4: n ASTEC. So I think those things, even though they're
Speaker 4: not directly tied into the stock market, are very important
Speaker 4: as factors for sentiment amy.
Speaker 3: In terms of finding other places to hedge, there was
Speaker 3: a goldmn Socks report about what hedge funds are shorting,
Speaker 3: and one of them that's at historic levels, albeit at
Speaker 3: a relatively low level, is utilities two point three percent
Speaker 3: of free float. Again, that doesn't sound terribly exciting, but
Speaker 3: that is the most in history. I wonder if that
Speaker 3: could be interpreted as a hedge for AI given the
Speaker 3: close proximity and the correlations we've been talking about, And
Speaker 3: if it is a hedge, does that make sense as one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it does. You know, when you think
Speaker 4: about what everything comes down to and what could be
Speaker 4: the bottleneck for large parts of the AI trade, it's
Speaker 4: just getting enough compute right, and that has implications not
Speaker 4: just for the United States, but if you think kind
Speaker 4: of bigger, it's also geo politically, the race that is
Speaker 4: going on right now between China and the United States. Again,
Speaker 4: it's that ability to do compute and what bottlenecks happen.
Speaker 4: The only issue I see when you think about doing
Speaker 4: it through utilities is one, there's just not that much
Speaker 4: market cap relative to other sectors. And two you know
Speaker 4: that liquidity is traditionally not as I guess free flowing
Speaker 4: as other sectors. So if that you think about that
Speaker 4: as your hedge, I don't know if that is the
Speaker 4: cleanest that you could have versus you know, outright owning something.
Speaker 5: As a hedge in AI underliars.
Speaker 2: Stay with US multile impex savanas. Coming up off to this.
Speaker 3: Joining US now is Wendy Schiller, directman of the Tomman
Speaker 3: Institute for American Politics and Policy at Brown University. Wendy,
Speaker 3: these negotiations as they're happening in the background, we're getting
Speaker 3: deer earnings that look really poor because of suffering consumer confidence,
Speaker 3: that plunging elections, That affordability was at the forefront. How
Speaker 3: is this coloring the administration's approach as it talks to
Speaker 3: President Sheet as it negotiates with Europe in trade deals?
Speaker 7: Hello, Donnie, I think that the President's got to balance
Speaker 7: his international clout in delivering for the domestic US political market,
Speaker 7: economically and politically, and he's getting so much pressure on
Speaker 7: all fronts, and it's now reflected in his poll numbers.
Speaker 7: On the economy, Republicans typically have an advantage managing the economy.
Speaker 8: They still have an advantage.
Speaker 7: Over the Democrats on managing the economy, but the President
Speaker 7: Trump's managing of the economy have flipped.
Speaker 8: They were more confident now he's underwater.
Speaker 7: In particular, there's also some dynamics of the midterms in
Speaker 7: twenty six Iowa, for example, big farm state relies on exports.
Speaker 8: They have a Senate race, and that.
Speaker 7: Senate race looked you know, maybe i was gone red,
Speaker 7: but now it looks like Iowa.
Speaker 8: The winds are change a little bit there.
Speaker 7: They've got a strong contender on the Democratic side, and
Speaker 7: we'll see who emerges on the Republican side.
Speaker 8: And that's something that's concerning the Senate.
Speaker 7: John fun in particular, has really been in the President's
Speaker 7: ear on agriculture, exports and China. An understanding that this
Speaker 7: doesn't just affect President Trump now, it could affect the
Speaker 7: standing of the Republicans in the Senate in twenty six.
Speaker 5: Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 6: I mean, we see that farmers don't have enough money
Speaker 6: to order more John Deere equipment. They lowered their profit
Speaker 6: forecasts for next year.
Speaker 5: We have seen already.
Speaker 6: Automakers that have had to put production on hold because
Speaker 6: they're not getting enough rare earths. And then President Trump
Speaker 6: has this call with si in which the Chinese call
Speaker 6: out Taiwan as a major sticking point. It's not even
Speaker 6: in the US President's readout, making it look like we're
Speaker 6: downplaying the important Taiwan issue in order to appease the Chinese.
Speaker 5: Are we losing this trade war.
Speaker 7: Well, Matt, I mean at the moment the American peak,
Speaker 7: as evidenced by a number of different polls across different
Speaker 7: polling companies that sort of tilt one way or the
Speaker 7: other politically, that the American public things we are that
Speaker 7: the tariffs are now being blamed for affordability, high prices, layoffs.
Speaker 7: And this is something I think the Jouman Institution did
Speaker 7: not anticipate when.
Speaker 8: He forged the sort of mantra that he was going.
Speaker 7: To stick up for America, get a better deal, negotiate
Speaker 7: a better deal, and bring manufacturing home.
Speaker 6: But every economist with a pulse warned the president about this.
Speaker 7: Well, Donald Trump marches to his own tune, his own drummer,
Speaker 7: and he will emerge claiming credit for deals. China did
Speaker 7: agree to buy more soybeans about a month ago after John.
Speaker 8: Fune pleaded with the President on this, But it still
Speaker 8: looks like we're gonna have to pay out subsidies to
Speaker 8: the farmers from the US Treasury to.
Speaker 7: Make up for these losses, and the President pivots, as
Speaker 7: we know all the time.
Speaker 8: The question is.
Speaker 7: How will the Republicans in Congress treat this going into
Speaker 7: the midterms in twenty six because American public is starting
Speaker 7: to blame the Republican Party and that's bad for them.
Speaker 7: So how effective are they in persuading Donald Trump to
Speaker 7: maybe renegotiate deals.
Speaker 8: But right now it looks like China is still driving
Speaker 8: the bus on this and.
Speaker 7: Affecting because of our geopolitics in the United States, how
Speaker 7: we elect people, which states are important.
Speaker 8: You know, they understand that.
Speaker 7: In China, they understand which markets are ware and how
Speaker 7: that affects our politics.
Speaker 8: And twenty six looms really.
Speaker 6: Large is is the president too focused on international relations
Speaker 6: when you know, we need someone to deal with the
Speaker 6: problem of skyrocketing health costs here. Apparently they're going to
Speaker 6: lay out another two year extension to these really inefficient
Speaker 6: ACA subsidies, which the Republicans really wanted to avoid, but
Speaker 6: now it looks like we're just going to keep, you know,
Speaker 6: paying these bills.
Speaker 7: Well, Matt, I mean every president of this, you know,
Speaker 7: when things are going a little bit south domestically, every
Speaker 7: president turns the page towards foreign relations.
Speaker 8: It's not a partisan thing, it's not a Trump thing.
Speaker 8: But this is what I'm watching. I'm watching.
Speaker 7: Will the Republicans, particularly in the House, come with the President.
Speaker 7: He clearly wants to sign an extension of these tax subsidies.
Speaker 7: He doesn't want to have millions of people who can't
Speaker 7: afford health insurance on his watch next year.
Speaker 8: That's what he wants to avoid.
Speaker 7: But the House is making noises that they don't want
Speaker 7: to do it, that they are uncomfortable doing it. Does
Speaker 7: he still have the same sway with the House GOP
Speaker 7: that he has appeared to have all year long.
Speaker 8: That's what I'm watching over the next couple of weeks
Speaker 8: in into.
Speaker 2: January, stay with us multple imperg Savannah's coming up off
Speaker 2: to this.
Speaker 3: Barbara Duran of BD eight Capital Partners, writing for now,
Speaker 3: the AI play is still the place to be. Avoid
Speaker 3: small cap staples, stick to quality large cap secular growers
Speaker 3: over six and Barbarrown please to say it joins us now.
Speaker 5: Really wonderful to see you this morning. Nice to see you, Danny.
Speaker 3: I'm interested by the fact you're not looking at cyclicals
Speaker 3: right now or small caps, especially since there's this hope
Speaker 3: that we're going to get fed cuts, maybe you add
Speaker 3: in fiscal stimulus and there's this reignition.
Speaker 5: Why are you still ignoring those sectors.
Speaker 1: Well, I think the FED cut that we may have
Speaker 1: one more now, but the economy has been doing fine
Speaker 1: without aggressive FED cuts, so that we've had about one
Speaker 1: and a half percentage points in the last fourteen months.
Speaker 1: But we've seen a number of false starts in terms
Speaker 1: of cyclicals and the small caps. And I see the
Speaker 1: small caps really as a trade because even with rates
Speaker 1: coming down a little bit, you still have forty percent
Speaker 1: of the russel two thousand don't make money.
Speaker 5: They have much higher cost of capital.
Speaker 1: Than return on investment typically, and unless rates come down
Speaker 1: significantly on the long end, I don't see them being helped.
Speaker 1: So I see that a's continuing as a trade. And
Speaker 1: in cyclicals, I think you have to be very selective.
Speaker 1: And industrials, for instance, I mean you want to be
Speaker 1: I think doing industrials that are play on the AI
Speaker 1: build out and infrastructure, automation, robotics, that sort of thing.
Speaker 1: But it's hard to see a big reignition here of
Speaker 1: the economy. I think we're in for good growth, decent growth,
Speaker 1: and certainly we've seen that with the forward earnings guidance
Speaker 1: from the companies who just reported a great quarter and
Speaker 1: certainly do have the big beautiful tax bill, you know,
Speaker 1: the incentives coming there for CAPEX, and also bank de
Speaker 1: regulation which should free up more capital to lend and spend.
Speaker 5: So next year is setting up nicely.
Speaker 3: I'm kind of confused why that's kind of like a
Speaker 3: muddling along versus a growth reognition, because all of those
Speaker 3: do seem like powerful forces.
Speaker 5: Barbara, Yeah, well, I think it is muddling long.
Speaker 1: And we've seen this, you know, this year, even with
Speaker 1: high supposedly high interest rates that are quote restrictive.
Speaker 5: You've seen the economy do okay. And the earnings.
Speaker 1: We just had the ninth quarter in a row where
Speaker 1: earnings were up. In fact, they were better than expected,
Speaker 1: some thirteen plus percent versus eight percent expected, you know,
Speaker 1: but it's still you know, we talked about AI. That
Speaker 1: is still the driver. I mean, if you look at
Speaker 1: what the MAG seven did in earnings x Meta, I
Speaker 1: take Meta out of the mix because they had a
Speaker 1: six team billion dollars one time charge, right, But looking
Speaker 1: at that the overall MAGS seven, we're up thirty percent,
Speaker 1: you know, in in aggregate earnings, and that's versus a
Speaker 1: twenty eight plus percent for the last four quarters.
Speaker 5: So that's still the driver here.
Speaker 6: I wonder about the massive capex plans that these companies
Speaker 6: have you mentioned meta right, they want to spend I
Speaker 6: think one hundred billion dollars next year. Is that depreciation scary?
Speaker 6: As Michael Burry warns us about the fact that they're
Speaker 6: going to buy all these chips which may be worth
Speaker 6: you know, twenty percent less the moment they drive them
Speaker 6: off the lot.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the depreciation.
Speaker 1: What's what I really keep my eye on is the demand,
Speaker 1: you know, and if you're looking at very credible sources,
Speaker 1: you know see this market data infrastructure, data center infrastructure
Speaker 1: going five times what it is now, So that really
Speaker 1: speaks to the demand that's out there. So I mean
Speaker 1: he's arguing about what are the real earnings this and that,
Speaker 1: But to me, it's really what's the demand, what's the
Speaker 1: revenue potential? And that is very real. I mean, just
Speaker 1: saw an acceleration there. I think that continues. We are
Speaker 1: still in the early stages of this AI. So the
Speaker 1: concern about you know, we're in a bubble, there's too
Speaker 1: much money being spent.
Speaker 5: I don't think at all.
Speaker 1: You're going to see increasing usage of AI as it
Speaker 1: gets developed.
Speaker 6: When do we get that revenue because I you know,
Speaker 6: started this job covering tech companies as Cisco was, you know,
Speaker 6: the the darling of the market, and we were spending
Speaker 6: as much as we could to lay fiber for the
Speaker 6: Internet in the late nineties early two thousands, and lo
Speaker 6: and behold, the revenue didn't come quickly enough. Cisco fell
Speaker 6: and only now, like last week, have you made money
Speaker 6: on Cisco if you bought it in nineteen ninety nine
Speaker 6: or two thousand.
Speaker 5: No, that's true.
Speaker 1: And I think so much though, is about the timing,
Speaker 1: you know, because some of the great tech companies in
Speaker 1: the past you had great long runs and made a
Speaker 1: lot of money. But all things do come to an end.
Speaker 1: There's innovation, you know, there's markets mature. I think the
Speaker 1: AI play this is so big and what we're seeing.
Speaker 1: I always mentioned Meta as the poster child, you know
Speaker 1: for what's happy in AI. They have been very early
Speaker 1: on applying it to their own business. Then you've seen
Speaker 1: the results very quickly. They even increase their user base,
Speaker 1: the engagement is up. They've really increased their improved their
Speaker 1: ad targeting, so they've improved more dollars and you've got
Speaker 1: very early penetration. AI is still you've heard it from
Speaker 1: Palo Alto last week. They talked about it in their
Speaker 1: AI security. It's still scaling up because their customers and
Speaker 1: big enterprises are still figuring out how they're going to
Speaker 1: you know, what AI they need and how they're.
Speaker 5: Going to apply it.
Speaker 1: So this is going to be You're going to see
Speaker 1: these increases in productivity over the next year or two.
Speaker 1: Exact timing hard to know, but it will just increase.
Speaker 1: I mean, look at chat GPT. I don't know about
Speaker 1: you all, but I use it all the time, and
Speaker 1: I increase my usage as I discover more things. And
Speaker 1: they have six hundred million users a week, and so
Speaker 1: this is really still and I talked to most of
Speaker 1: my friends. They're like, yeah, I should try it. There's
Speaker 1: still so much more to come, both consumer and enterprise.
Speaker 3: It definitely feels like something we're waiting for, right Like,
Speaker 3: when do the other companies benefit from productivity? I was
Speaker 3: looking at a Brooking study that was published recently. We're
Speaker 3: only nineteen percent of their respond in said that AI
Speaker 3: increase their productivity. Only four percent said it significantly increased productivity.
Speaker 3: Roberts your point, we're still trying to figure this out.
Speaker 3: So as you're looking for who benefits from AI, who
Speaker 3: can use it, where does productivity come from?
Speaker 5: Is it just too early to say? I think it is.
Speaker 5: I think it is.
Speaker 1: I think we see different companies that are benefiting. But
Speaker 1: I think over the next twelve to eighteen months there's
Speaker 1: going to be some dramatic stories to be told about
Speaker 1: the improvements. And you look at we're early on autonomous driving,
Speaker 1: we're early on the deployment of robotics. I mean, for instance,
Speaker 1: you know, you've got Amazon, you know has a million
Speaker 1: robots out there, and so they're very early on the curve,
Speaker 1: but a lot of people are not. And so those
Speaker 1: are things that over the next year. And again it's
Speaker 1: about competition. That's where we're seeing so much spending going
Speaker 1: to this because people know, I've got to do that.
Speaker 1: When you see people like Meta or Amazon who are
Speaker 1: already early users of all this and the productivity gains
Speaker 1: they are seeing. As a company management, we've got to
Speaker 1: do it too, and that requires spending up front.
Speaker 3: Isn't there a chance though, that they go too far
Speaker 3: with that spending and at some point it no longer
Speaker 3: gets rewarded by the market. You're already starting to see
Speaker 3: that in some of the hyper scalers, right, does that
Speaker 3: continue on?
Speaker 1: There's always that concern, and I think it's a legitimate
Speaker 1: concern because at some point you can and this is
Speaker 1: think in a capitalist economy, you know, you don't have
Speaker 1: central planning, so everybody's rushing, you know, to go up
Speaker 1: to the profitability typical margins come down. But I think
Speaker 1: where we are, the demand is so explosive. It's not
Speaker 1: a six to nine month phenomenon. So at some point
Speaker 1: that will be a factor. Right now, you know, as
Speaker 1: far as the eye can see, you've just got this demand,
Speaker 1: this virtuous circle that will just keep going and going.
Speaker 1: But it is something you always have to watch. We
Speaker 1: know that the lifespan of industry is what happens. You
Speaker 1: attract players, they all want to make money, and eventually
Speaker 1: you can overbuild. I don't think it's like fiber though,
Speaker 1: you know, fiber was much more limited. That was a
Speaker 1: very specific application and very prone to being overbuilt.
Speaker 5: This is just yeah, so much.
Speaker 3: At the end of the day, data centers are just
Speaker 3: like empty boxes. Those can't really be used for anything
Speaker 3: else besides data centers, at least on the infrastructure side,
Speaker 3: there's a chance we overbuild.
Speaker 6: Now you could mind bitcoin, Yes, so true, but.
Speaker 3: That is that is a place that it feels like
Speaker 3: we could go too far, and a lot of money
Speaker 3: has been put into that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it is. It is real estate. In the end,
Speaker 1: you know what's going on there. But at the moment, again,
Speaker 1: well everybody's watching that. It's like we're watching private credit.
Speaker 1: You know, in terms of possible systemic risk, it's not
Speaker 1: there yet, you know, and so you just still make
Speaker 1: a lot of money.
Speaker 5: And that's what we're going to continue to have these frights.
Speaker 1: Like you know, I remember the years when Amazon made
Speaker 1: no money and they kept reinvesting, reinvesting, and at least
Speaker 1: once a year investors will throw up their hands and
Speaker 1: say they will never make money and they sell the
Speaker 1: stock off. Well, we now know how that story has ended.
Speaker 1: And I think we're going to continue to see these
Speaker 1: concerns with AI and the legitimate concerns.
Speaker 5: I just think it's way early, Barbara.
Speaker 6: Where do you an investor who already has exposure to
Speaker 6: the megacap hyperscalers, an investor who already has exposure to energy,
Speaker 6: where do you put new money?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a pro because you know, in terms of
Speaker 1: because you will have new companies starting new applications and
Speaker 1: all that sort of things. So a lot of people.
Speaker 1: You can look at the food chain, you know, it
Speaker 1: goes into energy. Like you look at a company like
Speaker 1: g i Vernova, very expensive, they have great backlog, but
Speaker 1: they can only build so fast.
Speaker 5: So where do you put the money there?
Speaker 1: You can look at the suppliers and the components and
Speaker 1: all that sort of thing. But for now, you know,
Speaker 1: it's not only the hyperscalers, it's the broad comes of
Speaker 1: the world. I mean, you saw it Broadcome did with
Speaker 1: the announcement that Alphabet, you know, is going to be
Speaker 1: selling their TPUs, which are basically a six you know,
Speaker 1: customer customer chips to their customers, and so you still
Speaker 1: a lot more to go there, and you're going to
Speaker 1: have these kinds of announcements you know, going on, and
Speaker 1: so that will change. Look at Alphabet, you know it is,
Speaker 1: you know, outperformed, and just earlier this year it was
Speaker 1: a laggard. They had any trust problems. People are like, oh,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be left behind in the AI And now
Speaker 1: look at it, it's like, oh, the darling, the star
Speaker 1: of the show.
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