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Speaker 2: I've been anticipating this all morning.
Speaker 3: Tina Fordham is exquisite on our fractured international relations with
Speaker 3: Fordham Global Insight, her academics at Columbia among others, and
Speaker 3: of course her work over the years of the Eurasia
Speaker 3: Group now Fordham Global Foresight.
Speaker 2: Tina, within your wonderful note this morning, you just cut
Speaker 2: to the chase.
Speaker 3: Nuclear states in active conflict is not business as usual?
Speaker 2: How should the White House the State Department? Respond?
Speaker 4: Thanks? Tom. I think that we've got to be very
Speaker 4: focused on the fact that we're not just looking at
Speaker 4: a bold Israeli attack on Iran taking out at least
Speaker 4: twenty of its senior personnel at one time, as well
Speaker 4: as some attacks on nuclear facilities, but the Ukrainian spiderweb attack,
Speaker 4: drone attack deep into Russia, which of course has nuclear capability,
Speaker 4: and the teraf War all happening at the same time.
Speaker 4: For investors that are having flashbacks to the last round
Speaker 4: of Iran Israel tensions in twenty twenty four. We're in
Speaker 4: a really different environment. But I didn't answer your question
Speaker 4: about what the White House and the State Department should do.
Speaker 4: At the moment, it looks like the White House is
Speaker 4: trying to give the impression that they were on board
Speaker 4: with these attacks, when almost every thing that we're hearing
Speaker 4: is that the White House was cautioning Natanaho not to
Speaker 4: go for it. So both Natagnyaho and Zelensky and Ukraine,
Speaker 4: you know, really not heating Washington's warnings.
Speaker 5: So what does that say about our position in the
Speaker 5: world in terms of shaping events that are in our
Speaker 5: best interest, Because, as you mentioned in Ukraine and now
Speaker 5: most recently in the Middle East, it appears that we
Speaker 5: perhaps didn't don't have the influence we once did.
Speaker 4: Well, we don't seem able to deter leaders who are
Speaker 4: willing to take advantage of an opportunistic moment, and that's
Speaker 4: where we are. There is a perceived power vacuum, and
Speaker 4: both Ukraine and Israel, which of course are in very
Speaker 4: different conflicts that I don't mean to draw equivalentss between them,
Speaker 4: but part of being in a geopolitical risk supercycle is
Speaker 4: the notion that the global guardrails which deter more dramatic
Speaker 4: escalations are not working, and so that's where we find ourselves.
Speaker 4: Having said that, of course, the United States has a
Speaker 4: lot of cards. In particular, if Israel wants to you know,
Speaker 4: truly a degrade Iran's nuclear facilities, that will require the
Speaker 4: involvement of US long range bunk or buster bombs if to.
Speaker 2: Ford him with US.
Speaker 3: And we will continue here light economic data posts when
Speaker 3: you will enjoy the Michigan reports that we see here
Speaker 3: at ten am this morning. Thank you so much on
Speaker 3: YouTube of Fiery live chat over these military and political
Speaker 3: moments of the nation.
Speaker 2: Tina, let me ask the question, and you're so wonderfully
Speaker 2: a political I think I can get away with.
Speaker 3: This for our audiences and their politics of say the
Speaker 3: left and the right, of Democrat and Republican.
Speaker 2: This question is going to come up this weekend.
Speaker 3: Are we at this moment because of the unique policy
Speaker 3: and approach of Donald Trump in his second term? Are
Speaker 3: we going to get naval gazing into next week into
Speaker 3: August into twenty twenty six that says we have this
Speaker 3: conflict this war because of President Trump.
Speaker 2: Are we going to get there? Tom?
Speaker 4: I love that question, and you know that I'm not
Speaker 4: afraid of being bold. I mean, I think one of
Speaker 4: the tragedies of the present moment is that every single
Speaker 4: issue that the US is facing is now left coded
Speaker 4: and right coded in a way which is very bad
Speaker 4: for the world and for dealing with threats. I am
Speaker 4: in this role and in this seat because I think
Speaker 4: that in order for commerce and financial markets to function,
Speaker 4: we need safety and stability. And unfortunately, it's very difficult
Speaker 4: to have those convers stations, even on Wall Street anymore,
Speaker 4: without going down some kind of rabbit hole of whether
Speaker 4: one is defending Ukraine policy or is pro or anti Israel,
Speaker 4: when what we really need to be looking at as
Speaker 4: investors is the potential for conflicts to move from regional
Speaker 4: to systemic, to generate shocks from acid prices or to growth.
Speaker 4: And we're not having those conversations anymore.
Speaker 3: Ten fortum, I've stood outside that quiet room at the
Speaker 3: White House down in the basement below the Roosevelt Room,
Speaker 3: where the President will meet with a National Security Council.
Speaker 3: I assume they'll be in that closed you know, the
Speaker 3: famous room in all that, I would suggest we have
Speaker 3: a fractured process under NSC right now, with Marco Rubio
Speaker 3: having was it Paul five jobs, he's mowing the lawn whatever.
Speaker 3: What's going to go on at that eleven am meeting today, Tina.
Speaker 4: Fordham, Yes, eleven Am, no rush, you know it will
Speaker 4: it will have been something like ten hours since the
Speaker 4: bombs first dropped. I think they're going to be playing cleanup,
Speaker 4: to be honest, those warnings from the White House to
Speaker 4: NATANYAHUO were pretty well known in analysts and intelligence circles.
Speaker 4: Now the President has had to come out saying he'd
Speaker 4: been warning Iran all along. I think that's probably true.
Speaker 4: The prospects for diplomacy now are zero between Israel, Iran,
Speaker 4: and the United States. And what we're waiting for again
Speaker 4: in terms of the scale of the response is does
Speaker 4: Iran have anything left to respond with the one hundred
Speaker 4: or sore drones that were launched seem to have been intercepted.
Speaker 4: And how much further we're will Israel go. I've seen
Speaker 4: some estimates twelve days and then going further. And will
Speaker 4: the US actively get involved providing that kind of support
Speaker 4: I mentioned. I don't think the White house will want
Speaker 4: to go there.
Speaker 5: Tina, You've recently published some work entitled ever going back
Speaker 5: to Normal, and that was before the last twelve hours.
Speaker 5: What do you mean by we're never going back to normal?
Speaker 4: Well, I put this report together developing an evidence space
Speaker 4: to really try to assess whether we are indeed experiencing
Speaker 4: more geopolitical risks or not. And this speaks to Tom's
Speaker 4: earlier point, which is basically, is this the fault of
Speaker 4: the Trump administration. The answer is no, We've seen an
Speaker 4: acceleration of geopolitical risk. Events they started to pick up
Speaker 4: in the aftermath of the global financial crisis around about
Speaker 4: twenty ten, really accelerated, whether measured by trade in tariffs,
Speaker 4: or cyber attacks or conflicts. Lots of different variables that
Speaker 4: we looked at. But again it's that combination of more guardrails, sorry,
Speaker 4: more drivers of geopolitical risk and weaker guard rails, diplomacy norms,
Speaker 4: even just you know, the deterrence factor when those things
Speaker 4: break down. We're seeing a lot of nations willing to
Speaker 4: take chance.
Speaker 3: Tina, Thank you so much, Rave Reviews for the quality
Speaker 3: of his conversation on YouTube LiveChat. Thank you so much,
Speaker 3: gentlemen and gentle ladies.
Speaker 5: For that.
Speaker 2: Tina Fordham is with Fordham Global Insight.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: We are honored to bring you. As Paul mentioned, a
Speaker 3: marine mcmulroy, co founder of the Lobo Institute, the former
Speaker 3: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East. Make
Speaker 3: if I get out a map of the forty to
Speaker 3: fifty thousand Americans at some nineteen sites in the Middle East,
Speaker 3: with a substantial presence in Kuwait, don de behrein to
Speaker 3: cut her over to the United Arab Emirates strapped across
Speaker 3: the Persian Gulf.
Speaker 2: What is the risk to American military personnel at this moment?
Speaker 6: Good to be with you all again. Obviously a big
Speaker 6: concern around stated essentially that if they were attacked, that
Speaker 6: they would go after US personnel and facilities. That would
Speaker 6: be a huge strategic mistake. That's one of the reasons
Speaker 6: why I think Secretary of Rubio made it clear that
Speaker 6: this was a unilateral attack Byron not by the United States,
Speaker 6: So they would be drawing the United States into a
Speaker 6: conflict that they're already having with Israel. So they would
Speaker 6: be fighting a regional superpower, if you will, plus US.
Speaker 6: So I don't think they will. Hopefully they will have
Speaker 6: better ideas and not do that. But if they did,
Speaker 6: I think we have done everything we can to mitigate
Speaker 6: that threat, to get people out that don't need to
Speaker 6: be there, and of course bring in air and missile
Speaker 6: defense systems, which is the most likely way they would
Speaker 6: attack us. To defend these positions.
Speaker 3: Mick, I don't want to go back to Eisenhower or
Speaker 3: to nineteen seventy ninety either, but the absolute memory of
Speaker 3: pros like you is the absolutely stunning war on the
Speaker 3: border of Iraq and Iran in the Iran in the
Speaker 3: nineteen eighties that colors everything about Persia about Iran. They
Speaker 3: don't have that capability for large war like they did
Speaker 3: in the middle nineteen eighties, do.
Speaker 6: They They do not, And of course this is after
Speaker 6: multiple attacks by Israel on Iran that have been mitigating
Speaker 6: their air missile defense systems, their ability to launch cruise missiles,
Speaker 6: ballistic missiles and produce them. So this is something I
Speaker 6: think Israel took the opportunity to mitigate, not just their
Speaker 6: nuclear facilities, let's remember that's what we're talking about, but
Speaker 6: they also went after their ballistic missile launch sites, manufacturing centers,
Speaker 6: air bases, military bases, and essentially eliminated their entire general
Speaker 6: staff Major General Bulgary On down, essentially their joint chiefs
Speaker 6: of staff and the entire staff was eliminated, plus most
Speaker 6: of their senior nuclear scientists. They took every opportunity with this,
Speaker 6: and say it might actually last up to two weeks,
Speaker 6: so this might not.
Speaker 7: Be over, Mick.
Speaker 5: Let's talk about timing. Why do you believe Israel acted now?
Speaker 6: There's some speculation they were concerned about the agreement that
Speaker 6: the United States in Iran looked like they might be
Speaker 6: willing to agree to, which would have been very similar
Speaker 6: at least from what we see in reporting as the
Speaker 6: twenty fifteen JCPOA, the one that the United States unitedly
Speaker 6: withdrew from in twenty eighteen, and something that I think
Speaker 6: Israel found to be unacceptable. It would have allowed some
Speaker 6: type of richment in Iran to continue. Some would say
Speaker 6: that that's why they did it. There might have been intelligence.
Speaker 6: I'm not aware of it, but of course because I
Speaker 6: don't have access to it, that they were getting closer
Speaker 6: to a nuclear weapon and that was the trigger point
Speaker 6: for Israel. But certainly I think the United States would
Speaker 6: have rather seen a nuclear agreement, a new one that
Speaker 6: both parties could agree to oran in the United States,
Speaker 6: rather than see this escalate and to it could be
Speaker 6: a long term conflict that could continue to escalate nck.
Speaker 5: What does this say about the role of the United
Speaker 5: States in this region at this particular time. We know
Speaker 5: that the Trump administration was pushing for a diplomatic resolution and
Speaker 5: maybe a nuclear deal, and there were planned talks this
Speaker 5: weekend and then this happened, So what does that say
Speaker 5: about the US role here?
Speaker 6: So I agree, I agree with the premise that this
Speaker 6: was something the US did not want to see. They
Speaker 6: wanted to see a nuclear agreement that would have been
Speaker 6: acceptable to US, perhaps a slightly better for US than
Speaker 6: the twenty fifteen So politically.
Speaker 2: It would have it would have landed well.
Speaker 6: But that's unlikely to happen now. The Iman meetings that
Speaker 6: were set for Sunday or completely off and there's literally
Speaker 6: no chance that we're going to get back to that
Speaker 6: place and back around made it clear that if their
Speaker 6: facilities would ever attacked, that they would spend all of
Speaker 6: their effort trying to get to a nuclear weapon. So
Speaker 6: that's another concern that we have. The United States, of course,
Speaker 6: does not want to see another war start in the
Speaker 6: Middle East. That's not in anybody's interest, certainly not the
Speaker 6: countries of the Middle East. So hopefully we can play
Speaker 6: a role that de escalates this as quickly as possible.
Speaker 6: One way to do so, of course, is to protect
Speaker 6: Israel if they see a large amount of incoming missiles
Speaker 6: and drones like they saw back in October.
Speaker 2: We welcome all of.
Speaker 3: You across the nation with us now. McMurray. Rebecca Patterson
Speaker 3: will be with us here in a bit again. Our
Speaker 3: team led by Ethan Bronner in Tel Aviv monitoring each
Speaker 3: moment of this. We've had reports recently of continued attacks.
Speaker 3: We'll have to get more verification of that. Mcmurroy, I
Speaker 3: have a presidential tweet in front of me. It is
Speaker 3: too long to waste time with precious time with I
Speaker 3: should say, but to end the presidential tweet, Iran must
Speaker 3: make a deal before there is nothing left and say
Speaker 3: what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death,
Speaker 3: no more destruction, all caps. Just do it before it's
Speaker 3: too late. God bless you all. With great respect from
Speaker 3: the Arc of Dwight David Eisenhower out to President Obama.
Speaker 2: Mick Molroy.
Speaker 3: Do we have a coherent Middle East policy at this moment?
Speaker 6: It does not appear that we are actually running the
Speaker 6: show when it comes to this, and less one believes
Speaker 6: that this was to force around to the table. I
Speaker 6: think that's very unlikely that they. I mean, this was
Speaker 6: a complete disaster for Iran. They have been shown that
Speaker 6: they have almost no ability to defend themselves. For them
Speaker 6: to then come to the table and come to an
Speaker 6: agreement with the US would be the ultimate humiliation. They
Speaker 6: will have to respond to this attack, and they will
Speaker 6: likely not want to have any discussions going forward. They
Speaker 6: have made it clear that they're now will try to
Speaker 6: get to a nuclear weapon. The US, of course, will
Speaker 6: always play a key and vital part of the Middle East.
Speaker 6: It is in our own interest to do so, and
Speaker 6: I think ultimately if we can get this back on track,
Speaker 6: it would be in our interests as well as Iran
Speaker 6: and all that countries in the region. Do have a
Speaker 6: diplomatic resolution, and if that means a new nuclear agreement,
Speaker 6: that would be good. It's very difficult to see how
Speaker 6: we can get there from here right now.
Speaker 5: Mick, Within Iran, do we have a sense of You
Speaker 5: mentioned the senior leadership was dealt a big, big blow
Speaker 5: in this attack here. How about just the leadership, the
Speaker 5: political leadership in Iran? How stable is that given you know,
Speaker 5: this really a surprising attack here.
Speaker 6: Well, this is one of the reasons why I think
Speaker 6: Prime Minister Nan Yahoo came out and said this was
Speaker 6: the time, This was the time for the Iranian people
Speaker 6: to rise up against the Iranian regime which has done
Speaker 6: nothing to help them because of their near continuous desire
Speaker 6: to be at constant war with their neighbors. Of course,
Speaker 6: they support all the proxies that continuously attack not only
Speaker 6: Israel but the United States. Up until nine to eleven,
Speaker 6: Hesbolo was the biggest killer of Americans, the biggest terrorist
Speaker 6: organization killer of Americans. So they caused this, and now
Speaker 6: they've come home to you know, to roost, so to speak.
Speaker 6: Whether they can change that in or on this this
Speaker 6: is their opportunity. The leadership has been decimated. They are
Speaker 6: obviously in very direk the economic situation will have to
Speaker 6: see it has to be organic, I think for it
Speaker 6: to take take hold. But they are in a very
Speaker 6: bad place and we have to see whether they have
Speaker 6: the capacity istry around that is unclear.
Speaker 3: Make We hope to speak to you next week with
Speaker 3: the Lobo Institute and of course his service to the
Speaker 3: Pentagon and the United States Marines. Mcmulroy starts us off
Speaker 3: this morning. Futures negative sixty or the vix out, two
Speaker 3: big figures as Paul mentioned over twenty twenty point one
Speaker 3: five brent crewed seventy four dollars seventy seven cents up
Speaker 3: per barrel.
Speaker 2: Too short.
Speaker 3: A visit this morning with Rebecca Patterson with a consul
Speaker 3: and foreign relations, a student of the Litmus paper of
Speaker 3: the system the currency.
Speaker 2: This is an upset.
Speaker 3: This is a continued cacophony of events that we see.
Speaker 3: We clearly have a threatened dollar down ten percent. How
Speaker 3: does this add to the burden of a weaker dollar.
Speaker 8: I think what we're seeing overnight in this morning is
Speaker 8: some very modest dollar strength the DXY Dollar Index modest
Speaker 8: and I expected it right, and you're seeing a bigger
Speaker 8: reaction in gold. You're seeing a reaction in the Swiss
Speaker 8: frank so other quote unquote safe havens, some fall in
Speaker 8: ten year bond yields, although not much. Again, so I
Speaker 8: think even though we are getting the typical flight to
Speaker 8: safety reaction in market that we've seen sadly too many
Speaker 8: times over our careers, the fact that the dollar rally
Speaker 8: is so muted, I think tom speaks to what's happening
Speaker 8: with the dollar more broadly.
Speaker 2: Now, thank you.
Speaker 5: So, Global Wall Street waking up to this news just
Speaker 5: another issue. I'm not going to call it a headwind
Speaker 5: per se, but another issue for Global Wall Strate and
Speaker 5: global investors to deal with. How to historically, how have
Speaker 5: you kind of viewed some of these global tensions and
Speaker 5: how it informs your investment outlook.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, as horrible as these events are from
Speaker 8: a humanitarian point of view, I think for financial markets
Speaker 8: you always go back to what is going to be
Speaker 8: the global or regional economic impact, and in this case,
Speaker 8: it's looking at what will hire crude oil prices and
Speaker 8: gas natural gas prices due to the global economy. What
Speaker 8: will potentially a slowdown in international flights. Do we see
Speaker 8: that in the airline stocks today and can there be
Speaker 8: contagious So the marker I'd be watching is an escalation
Speaker 8: in this conflict. If the Strait of horn Moots would
Speaker 8: be the red line. If we see any attempt to
Speaker 8: close the strait. That hurts Iran itself because it needs
Speaker 8: to ship its energy out of there, especially to China,
Speaker 8: but it hurts everyone and that would be a big
Speaker 8: stagflationary step forward if it happens. I think probably a
Speaker 8: low probability, but you need to keep an eye out
Speaker 8: for it.
Speaker 3: With your work with JPM Morgan and of course with Bridgewater.
Speaker 3: Back to City Road in London, I'm going to say
Speaker 3: there's a conceit that the United States is distant from
Speaker 3: all this. There's two oceans in the way. It's in
Speaker 3: bred in our culture to say it's their problem and
Speaker 3: their problem is continental Europe and over to the United Kingdom.
Speaker 3: With your global work that you've done over the years, Rebecca,
Speaker 3: how does this affect Europe? In London more so? Now?
Speaker 3: To me, they're shockingly close to the Greater Persian Gulf absolutely.
Speaker 8: I mean they rely on oil and energy imports a
Speaker 8: lot more than the US. We're self sufficient effectively and energy,
Speaker 8: So they're going to be much more vulnerable to that
Speaker 8: as well as just trade between the Middle East and Europe.
Speaker 8: But I do think the US is more vulnerable than
Speaker 8: normal right now because even though the hard data, so
Speaker 8: to speak, the economy in the US is moderating but
Speaker 8: still solid, you do have this heightened level of uncertainty
Speaker 8: among businesses in particular. You're just adding more fuel to
Speaker 8: that fire with this. If you want business activity to pause,
Speaker 8: this is going to contribute to that.
Speaker 3: Paul publishing last night, Michael Ferole JP Morgan models out
Speaker 3: to Q four Q four of this year. JP Morgan
Speaker 3: is modeling a sub one percent GDP for that quarter.
Speaker 5: So, Rebecca, given what Thomas just mentioning that about slow
Speaker 5: in growth but not recessionary scenarios, what does that suggest
Speaker 5: to you for investors where they should be maybe position
Speaker 5: in this slower growth world.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 8: I mean we've seen this trend already this year, but
Speaker 8: I think it continues that large cap stocks that are
Speaker 8: more able to weather these storms outperform small caps, which
Speaker 8: need that sick locality, that momentum plus lower rates to
Speaker 8: really outperform. So you want to be in large caps,
Speaker 8: and you probably want to keep quote unquote barbelling your
Speaker 8: portfolio in that both within stocks have the consumer staples,
Speaker 8: have the save stocks, but then have some tech to
Speaker 8: play the long term AI theme. And if there's no
Speaker 8: turn in consumer sentiment and then globally, I'm pounding my
Speaker 8: fist on the table on this one. Gold keeps going higher.
Speaker 7: Thank you, Tom.
Speaker 8: I've been bullish on gold for a couple of years,
Speaker 8: and this is yet another reason, sadly that you want
Speaker 8: to keep in that even it's up thirty percent year today.
Speaker 3: Such a pro gold up thirty six dollars thirty four
Speaker 3: to thirty eight. One final question Kindeth Pollock and Ambassador
Speaker 3: Shapiro published this morning at the Console and Foreign Relations
Speaker 3: in Foreign Affairs magazine. When those fancy people in international
Speaker 3: relations talk to a market.
Speaker 2: Beast like you, what do they ask you?
Speaker 8: You know, I've really enjoyed being part of the Council
Speaker 8: on Foreign Relations to try to tie the policy and
Speaker 8: economics with the financial markets because they all affect each other.
Speaker 8: In fact, we had an event yesterday on foreign direct
Speaker 8: investment to the United States and what some of the
Speaker 8: uncertainty we're living through, what some of the policies could
Speaker 8: do to foreign direct investments so they're thinking about the
Speaker 8: policy of Commerce Secretary Lutenux FastTrack proposal. I'm thinking about
Speaker 8: if we have less FDI to the US. FDI today
Speaker 8: accounts for about eight million jobs and about a quarter
Speaker 8: of all US manufacturing jobs. If FDI slows because of
Speaker 8: global policy concerns, how does that feed through to our
Speaker 8: equity market, to household wealth, to the dollar. So I'm
Speaker 8: trying to square that circle at the Council on Foreign
Speaker 8: Relations and learning a lot from my colleagues.
Speaker 3: Frankly, Rebecca, thank you so much, Thank you, thank you
Speaker 3: so much for coming in early this morning. Ms Patterson
Speaker 3: with the Console and Foreign Relations as a senior fellow,
Speaker 3: and of course heard years i should say, with Bridgewater
Speaker 3: and with JP Morgan and bestmer Trust as well.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: To short A visit this morning with Rebecca Patterson with
Speaker 3: the Consul and Foreign Relations, a student of the litmus
Speaker 3: paper of the system the currency. This is an upset.
Speaker 3: This is a continued cacophony of events that we see.
Speaker 3: We clearly have a threatened dollar down ten percent. How
Speaker 3: does this add to the burden of a weeker dollar.
Speaker 8: I think what we're seeing overnight in this morning is
Speaker 8: some very much oddest dollar strength. The DXY Dollar index
Speaker 8: modest and I expected it right. And you're seeing a
Speaker 8: bigger reaction in gold. You're seeing a reaction in the
Speaker 8: Swiss frank so other quote unquote safe havens, some fall
Speaker 8: in ten year bond yields, although not much. Again, so
Speaker 8: I think even though we are getting the typical flight
Speaker 8: to safety reaction in markets that we've seen sadly too
Speaker 8: many times over our careers, the fact that the dollar
Speaker 8: rally is so muted, I think tom speaks to what's
Speaker 8: happening with the dollar more broadly.
Speaker 5: Now, thank you so, Global Wall Street waking up to
Speaker 5: this news just another issue. I'm not gonna call it
Speaker 5: a headwind per se, but another issue for Global Wall
Speaker 5: Strate and global investors to deal with.
Speaker 7: How historically, how have you kind.
Speaker 5: Of viewed some of these global tensions and how it
Speaker 5: informs your investment outlook.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, as horrible as these events are from
Speaker 8: a humanitarian point of view, I think for financial markets
Speaker 8: you always go back to what is going to be
Speaker 8: the global or regional economic impact, and in this case,
Speaker 8: it's looking at what will hire crude oil prices and
Speaker 8: gas natural gas prices due to the global economy. What
Speaker 8: will potentially a slow down in international flights. Do we
Speaker 8: see that in the airline stocks today? And can there
Speaker 8: be contagion? So the marker I'd be watching is an
Speaker 8: escalation in this conflict. If the Strait of horm Moots
Speaker 8: would be the red line. If we see any attempt
Speaker 8: to close the strait, that hurts Iran itself because it
Speaker 8: needs to ship its energy out of there, especially to China,
Speaker 8: but it hurts everyone and that would be a big
Speaker 8: stagflationary step forward. If it happens. I think probably a
Speaker 8: low probability, but you need to keep an eye out
Speaker 8: for it with.
Speaker 3: Your work with JP Morgan and of course with Bridgewater.
Speaker 3: Back to City Road in London, I'm going to say
Speaker 3: there's a conceit that the United States is distant from
Speaker 3: all this. There's two oceans in the way. It's in
Speaker 3: bred in our culture to say it's their problem, and
Speaker 3: their problem is continental Europe and over to the United Kingdom.
Speaker 3: With your global work that you've done over the years, Rebecca,
Speaker 3: how does this affect Europe and London more so? Now?
Speaker 3: To me, they're shockingly close to the Greater Persian Gulf absolutely.
Speaker 8: I mean they rely on oil and energy imports a
Speaker 8: lot more than the US. We're self sufficient effectively and energy,
Speaker 8: so they're going to be much more vulnerable to that
Speaker 8: as well as just trade between the Middle East and Europe.
Speaker 8: But I do think the US is more vulnerable than
Speaker 8: normal right now because even though the hard data, so
Speaker 8: to speak, the economy in the US is moderating but
Speaker 8: still solid, you do have this heightened level of uncertainty
Speaker 8: among businesses in particular. You're just adding more fuel to
Speaker 8: that fire with this. If you want business activity to pause,
Speaker 8: this is going to contribute to that.
Speaker 3: Publishing last night, Michael Faroli, JP Morgan models out.
Speaker 2: To Q four Q four of this year, JP.
Speaker 3: Morgan is modeling a sub one percent yep GDP for
Speaker 3: that quarter.
Speaker 5: So, Rebecca, given what Thomas just mentioning, they about slow
Speaker 5: in growth but not recessionary scenarios, what does that suggest
Speaker 5: to you for investors where they should be maybe positioned
Speaker 5: in this slower growth world.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 8: I mean we've seen this trend already this year, but
Speaker 8: I think it continues that large cap stocks that are
Speaker 8: more able to weather these storms outperform small caps, which
Speaker 8: need that sickleicality, that momentum plus lower rates to really outperform.
Speaker 8: So you want to be in large caps, and you
Speaker 8: probably want to keep quote unquote barbelling your portfolio in
Speaker 8: that both within stocks have the consumer staples, have the
Speaker 8: save stocks, but then have some tech to play the
Speaker 8: long term AI theme. And if there's no turn in
Speaker 8: consumer sentiment and then globally I'm pounding my fist on
Speaker 8: the table on this one. Gold keeps going higher.
Speaker 7: Thank you, Tom.
Speaker 8: I've been bullish on gold for a couple of years,
Speaker 8: and this is yet another reason, sadly that you want
Speaker 8: to keep in that evens up thirty percent year today,
Speaker 8: such a pro.
Speaker 3: Gold of thirty six dollars thirty four to thirty eight.
Speaker 3: One final question Kindeth Pollock and Ambassador Shapiro published this
Speaker 3: morning at the Council and Foreign Relations in a Foreign
Speaker 3: Affairs magazine.
Speaker 2: When those fancy people.
Speaker 3: In international relations talk to a market beast like you,
Speaker 3: what do they ask you?
Speaker 8: You know, I've really enjoyed being part of the Council
Speaker 8: on Foreign Relations to try to tie the policy and
Speaker 8: economics with the financial markets, because they all affect each other.
Speaker 8: In fact, we had an event yesterday on foreign direct
Speaker 8: investment to the United States and what some of the
Speaker 8: uncertainty we're living through, what some of the policies could
Speaker 8: do to foreign direct investments. So they're thinking about the
Speaker 8: policy of Commerce Secretary Lutnx FastTrack proposal. I'm thinking about
Speaker 8: if we have less FDI to the US. FDI today
Speaker 8: accounts for about eight million jobs and about a quarter
Speaker 8: of all US manufacturing jobs. If FDI slows because of
Speaker 8: global policy concerns, how does that feed through to our
Speaker 8: equity market, to household wealth, to the dollar. So I'm
Speaker 8: trying to square that circle at the Council on Foreign
Speaker 8: Relations and learning a lot from my colleagues.
Speaker 3: Frankly, Rebecca, thank you so much, Thank you so much
Speaker 3: for coming in early this morning. Ms Patterson with the
Speaker 3: Console on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow, and of
Speaker 3: course uh hear years I should say, with Bridgewater and
Speaker 3: with JP Morgan and best in my trust as well.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 3: You continue our coverage here of the attacks by Israel
Speaker 3: across a wren and usually qualified this morning to speak
Speaker 3: as god a Macunda. Professor yale A School of Management,
Speaker 3: in his study of the presidency is well, we got
Speaker 3: a four hour conversation.
Speaker 2: Coming in here, Goud.
Speaker 3: I mean, we're gonna squeeze it in rather quickly as well.
Speaker 3: Secretary of State Rubio follows on from Hamilton, I'm gonna
Speaker 3: say Quincy Adams.
Speaker 2: And other worthies of the nineteenth century to Dean Rusk
Speaker 2: in others.
Speaker 3: Do we have an operative Secretary of State with an
Speaker 3: operative American foreign policy right now?
Speaker 9: It certainly doesn't look that way. The conflict between rubio
Speaker 9: statement which disassociated ourselves from the US from the attacks.
Speaker 2: From what I just read, is really noticeable.
Speaker 9: I mean, the Trump administration kind of takes, you know,
Speaker 9: like everybody running in different directions as it's operating principle,
Speaker 9: But that's really not a great idea when bombs are
Speaker 9: going off, and so this might be a time worse
Speaker 9: message discipline and actual strategic thinking would be well rewarded.
Speaker 7: Got him.
Speaker 5: I think it seems like President Trump and his administration
Speaker 5: move moving towards a peace negotiation in this.
Speaker 7: Part of the world, Yet in Israel wasn't on the
Speaker 7: same page. And they went and they acted officially. Here
Speaker 7: what does that do for US policy? Now? Where is
Speaker 7: our position in that part of the world now?
Speaker 9: Really bad, certainly much worse than it could be. So
Speaker 9: let's split this out in two things. One is, this
Speaker 9: is just a dramatic statement of the complete collapse of
Speaker 9: American influence under the Trump administration, not just in the
Speaker 9: Middle East, but particularly in the Middle East. If there
Speaker 9: is any country that the United States should be able
Speaker 9: to influence at is Israel. And and Trump was very
Speaker 9: clear he did not want this happen in the israelis
Speaker 9: that hey, we're doing this anyways, So says that people
Speaker 9: do not take Trump seriously. But the broader thing is,
Speaker 9: with any operation like this, you want to differentiate between
Speaker 9: right strategic, operational tactical. So at the operational and the
Speaker 9: technical level. This was done with the normal extraordinary skill
Speaker 9: we expect from the IDEF in Israeli intelligence, they're really
Speaker 9: good at this, and they showed this over and over
Speaker 9: again and they they you know, early returns are impressive
Speaker 9: in terms of that. Yeah, but this is a strategic catastrophe.
Speaker 9: The Trump administration's policy, joined with the net NAH policy
Speaker 9: of pulling out of the Iranian nuclear agreement, left Trump
Speaker 9: frantically negotiating to try to get an agreement with Iran
Speaker 9: that was considerably inferior to the one that he exited. Right,
Speaker 9: and the deadline that people aren't talking about yet is
Speaker 9: in four months, are the snapback authority, that is, the
Speaker 9: authority to reimpose the sanctions that we had that the
Speaker 9: Obama administration had coordinated to keep Iran from doing. Right,
Speaker 9: that snapback authority goes away, So the ability to get everyone,
Speaker 9: essentially everyone in the world who would all agree that
Speaker 9: we were going to stop the Iranians from doing this
Speaker 9: in four months, that goes away. Does anyone think that
Speaker 9: any of the remaining signatories are going to authorize snapback
Speaker 9: after this?
Speaker 3: I'm going to take a risk that everyone got him
Speaker 3: except your class at Yale everyone has their head spinning.
Speaker 3: They can't keep straight what Secretary of State John Carrey did.
Speaker 3: They can't keep straight what happened under Bush, the younger
Speaker 3: Bush the older. It's a cacophony of diplomacy. And I'm
Speaker 3: just going to bring it back to Sadat nineteen sixty seven,
Speaker 3: you had the new Non Proliferation Treaty of nineteen sixty eight.
Speaker 3: Ken Polyk instructs me, you go to a twenty fifteen agreement.
Speaker 3: Is all this multi decade diplomacy just blown to smithereens
Speaker 3: this morning.
Speaker 9: Uh, it's been unraveling for a long time. This is
Speaker 9: just one more blow to that. And the great fear
Speaker 9: I think that everybody has is that Iran will at
Speaker 9: this point and will withdrawal from the NPT.
Speaker 2: And make their own chemicals, their own yellow cake, right.
Speaker 9: And wish they've been doing. And let's be very clear,
Speaker 9: right when they were under the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which
Speaker 9: there were no accusations they had violated, they were enriching
Speaker 9: up to a very low threshold. Since we pulled out
Speaker 9: of the agreement, they've been enriching up to a threshold
Speaker 9: that you only do if you're trying to make nuclear wes.
Speaker 9: There's no reason to take me enrich uranium as.
Speaker 2: Much as theyre going. It's the mathematics here, folks.
Speaker 3: On uranium two thirty five is eighty percent is like
Speaker 3: being sure my teeth are done correctly with nuclear energy.
Speaker 3: But if you go over twenty percent and then you
Speaker 3: get up to eighty percent, that's where we get into trouble.
Speaker 9: And so they're very close, essentially in a snario that
Speaker 9: we call breakout, where it would not take them very
Speaker 9: long at all to go from the uranium they have
Speaker 9: to uranium that is that is actually usable in a
Speaker 9: nuclear weapon, and from there you then have to go
Speaker 9: and they have to deploy it. Right, So there's still
Speaker 9: lots of steps between having the uranium in the bomb,
Speaker 9: but that is the key step. And so the sort
Speaker 9: of orientation of policy that we're going to bluster and
Speaker 9: threaten and not work with anyone else has just been
Speaker 9: a strategic failure of unbelievable proportions. And now like so,
Speaker 9: when we withdrew from the j from the Iron Nuclear
Speaker 9: Deal in twenty nineteen, Secretary Pompeo tried to invoke snapback instead.
Speaker 9: The Iranians are in violation and we need to have
Speaker 9: the sanctions again, and our own allies, the British and French,
Speaker 9: were sort of you pulled out of the deal. You
Speaker 9: don't get to do that anymore, you do not have
Speaker 9: the authority, and they just ignored us.
Speaker 7: So we have.
Speaker 9: Lost all of our leverage for no reason other than
Speaker 9: Donald Trump wanted to bluster about how he could make
Speaker 9: a better deal than Barack Obama did.
Speaker 7: And he could. So, Okay, where do we go from here?
Speaker 5: If I'm the United States diplomatic community, where do we
Speaker 5: go from here? As Marco Ruby fly over to Israel,
Speaker 5: I mean, how do we perhaps? Is it even maybe
Speaker 5: Donald Trump got elected by saying, hey.
Speaker 7: That's not our problem, Yeah, let them let them fix it.
Speaker 7: And I would argue, at least half the country agrees
Speaker 7: with him. So is this his policy playing out?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 9: I mean the Middle East, it's like it's like the Godfather, right,
Speaker 9: Like every time we think we're out, they pull us
Speaker 9: back in, and this is just that over and over again.
Speaker 9: I do think that there's going to be some to that.
Speaker 9: A lot of this is going to be driven basically
Speaker 9: by how smart the Iranians are. If I were the Iranians,
Speaker 9: I would be like I'm going to I'll launch some drones,
Speaker 9: I'll launch the missiles, and then I'll play the victim here, right,
Speaker 9: I got I got to ride this out for four months,
Speaker 9: and I get to trade with the rest of the
Speaker 9: world a much better.
Speaker 2: Four months is not that long.
Speaker 9: And if the Audians are smart enough to say, I
Speaker 9: will take the.
Speaker 3: Hit a amount of time, you got to come back
Speaker 3: next week. I really I think our audience really wants
Speaker 3: to hear this. You know, folks on international relations, we're
Speaker 3: trying to look at the market with futures.
Speaker 2: Negative fifty four.
Speaker 3: But this is the extraordinary times for all of you,
Speaker 3: whatever your political presentation.
Speaker 2: We welcome all of you on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Professor mccuinde, Thank you so much.
Speaker 3: Got to mccuinde, professor Eale University and writing.
Speaker 4: For Bloomberk Opinion.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
Speaker 1: Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining.
Speaker 3: Us at this moment will be Matt Zetti and Eric Stein.
Speaker 3: Mett Zetti with Deutsche Bank. Now they're chief kind of
Speaker 3: asstilled that he could be with us this morning.
Speaker 2: I think the worst job on Wall Street this.
Speaker 3: Morning is Brett Ryan, because you're going to turn to
Speaker 3: your colleague Brett Ryan and say, we have to blow
Speaker 3: up the weekend research report around the cacophony of our
Speaker 3: domestic relations. You are a soul of Los Angeles. What
Speaker 3: we see within our politics. I believe we have a
Speaker 3: parade this weekend and now we have a true war
Speaker 3: without question in the levant. What's the Deutsche Bank thrust
Speaker 3: within your conference call this morning to publish for Monday.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, I think you know, as we think
Speaker 10: about the FED and we think about the economy, what
Speaker 10: we are seeing now is overlaying another meaningful supply shock
Speaker 10: on the economy at a time where I think policymakers,
Speaker 10: the FED you certainly would not like to see another
Speaker 10: supply shock hitting any economy.
Speaker 2: Does that embed inflation higher? Is that the summary of it?
Speaker 7: It does?
Speaker 10: I mean, it's another one that I think, you know,
Speaker 10: the FED would kind of quote unquote like to look through.
Speaker 10: But at the same time, we know, especially inflation expectations
Speaker 10: are very sense to oil prices and gas prices. You know,
Speaker 10: it's at the forefront of consumers. So you know, we'll
Speaker 10: see what the University of Michigan says today, but I
Speaker 10: think more important will be what it says at the
Speaker 10: end of the month and the next month, because the
Speaker 10: FED is quite sensitive to inflation expectations, not just universe
Speaker 10: to Michigan, but these other measures, and they are all
Speaker 10: highly sensitive to oil and gas prices. I think that's
Speaker 10: the key consideration for the best just.
Speaker 5: Over the past couple of days, is CPI and a
Speaker 5: PPI data to just at least for now and maybe
Speaker 5: even looking back a month, inflation is not there, at
Speaker 5: least maybe to the levels some people thought.
Speaker 7: Is that was that helpful the last couple days that data.
Speaker 10: I think it is helpful, but I also kind of
Speaker 10: want to take a step back, right. I think we
Speaker 10: get focused on very short term trends. The last one
Speaker 10: or two data points, and certainly the last three data
Speaker 10: points for core CPI and core PC I think are
Speaker 10: going to look pretty subdued. But the first two months
Speaker 10: of the year we're very strong. So if you annulyze
Speaker 10: over the first five months of the year for core PC,
Speaker 10: we're basically printed two point nine percent. There's a lot
Speaker 10: of residual seasonality in the data, and so I think
Speaker 10: the FED is probably not going to emphasize one or
Speaker 10: two data points. I think they're going to look at
Speaker 10: stronger inflation to start the year. They're going to look
Speaker 10: at stilly anticipated rise in inflation driven by tariffs and
Speaker 10: oil prices ahead, and I would anticipate that their messaging
Speaker 10: messaging doesn't really change all that much next week.
Speaker 5: So what are the key data points here do you
Speaker 5: think for this economy that you're focusing on again? Now
Speaker 5: we have to kind of think about higher energy prices,
Speaker 5: perhaps for a longer period than maybe we had initially thought.
Speaker 5: What are the key drivers for you that you're looking
Speaker 5: at and to get a sense of this economy here.
Speaker 10: I think for the market and for us, it's two things.
Speaker 10: One it's the labor market and is that really weakening
Speaker 10: materially or not. I think you got a job report
Speaker 10: last week that that was resilient in many ways. It
Speaker 10: was not overly robust, But when you look at measures
Speaker 10: of labor market slack, they're basically stable over the past
Speaker 10: six to nine months, the unemployment rate, quits rate U six,
Speaker 10: everything that you would look at, but you do see
Speaker 10: some creep higher and continuing jobless claims, and that can
Speaker 10: be a worry. So that whether or not that continues
Speaker 10: is the first data point, and then the second one
Speaker 10: is over the next seven months, do we get clear
Speaker 10: evidence of the tariff effaccident. I think that'll be a
Speaker 10: very important driver of the market.
Speaker 3: Matt Leaztti with US Deutsche Bank. Can we continue here
Speaker 3: with conversation linking in economics, finance, investment into as I
Speaker 3: said earlier, fractured international relations. In the last five minutes,
Speaker 3: the tape turns around a bit, goes the other way,
Speaker 3: with the VIX again over twenty futures negative fifty seven,
Speaker 3: down futures negative four to twenty five. The VIX now
Speaker 3: extends out round it down negative one point two percent.
Speaker 3: Brent crewed, the global oil price seven point four percent move,
Speaker 3: American oil eight percent move on Brent seventy four dollars
Speaker 3: fifty cents.
Speaker 5: Well, Matt, given all the teriff related uncertainty that's been
Speaker 5: in the market, the consumer seems to be hanging in
Speaker 5: there in terms of spending, and so on.
Speaker 7: How do you view the consumer these days.
Speaker 10: I think from an aggregate perspective, it makes a lot
Speaker 10: of sense that they're hanging in there. You know, if
Speaker 10: you look at aggregate income growth from last week's job support,
Speaker 10: it's up five percent in nominal terms year on year.
Speaker 10: With that kind of income growth, it would be surprising
Speaker 10: to see the consumer softening materially. The saving rate earlier
Speaker 10: this year had actually creeped up to five percent, which
Speaker 10: is relatively high compared to what we've been over the
Speaker 10: past several months. We got the flow funds data yesterday
Speaker 10: about net worth and income that remains in your record
Speaker 10: high levels. If you look at kind of liabilities or
Speaker 10: debt relative income, taking out the pandemic, we're at the
Speaker 10: lowest level since the nineteen nineties. Really, those are all
Speaker 10: metrics which from an aggregate perspective would tell you, yes,
Speaker 10: there's uncertainty and there's concerns, but the aggregates that kind
Speaker 10: of go into the US consumer are all pretty resilient
Speaker 10: at the moment.
Speaker 3: But this is our heart of the matter and really
Speaker 3: harkens back, folks. It seems ages ago, I think it
Speaker 3: was four or five days ago. I'll give the ft credit.
Speaker 3: Somebody had the non aggregated consumer spending of America where
Speaker 3: the upper fancy people like Lisa Matteo, they're spending over.
Speaker 2: Fifty percent of our income. That's shocking. It used to
Speaker 2: be twenty something percent. We're not aggregate America.
Speaker 3: How do you pull off that X exercise on your
Speaker 3: Excel spreadsheets?
Speaker 10: Look, you're absolutely right, you know, the aggregate picture does
Speaker 10: not give you the distributional picture. And I think one
Speaker 10: of the clearest data points that I see from that
Speaker 10: is the FED has this shed survey and they go
Speaker 10: on and they ask, you know, if you were to
Speaker 10: have to finance a four or five hundred dollars expense, how.
Speaker 7: Would you be able to do it?
Speaker 10: And it's you know, roughly half of the population would
Speaker 10: have to borrow in order to finance that. And so
Speaker 10: I think that is a data point which tells you
Speaker 10: that there is clear distributional issues. From the Fed's perspective,
Speaker 10: they are worried about the aggregate picture, the labor market
Speaker 10: and inflation because they can't really impact the distributional items.
Speaker 7: Fiscal policy can.
Speaker 10: And as we looked forward to this one big beautiful bill,
Speaker 10: the distributional assessment of that is that you actually hurt
Speaker 10: the bottom part of the income distribution, given what's happening
Speaker 10: with medicaid and snap in those items.
Speaker 3: I got to squeeze this in here, Ken Rogoff, in
Speaker 3: my Book of the Summer, two thirds of the way
Speaker 3: through the book comes to a complete halt as he
Speaker 3: goes over the Deutsche Bank researcher David folkerts landou Garber
Speaker 3: and Dowley.
Speaker 10: So I've been reading that book in anticipation that this
Speaker 10: question would come up.
Speaker 2: Oh did you I did? Yes, look at that, Lisa,
Speaker 2: I mean you scaled out period.
Speaker 3: Explain to our audience what David folkerts Lando did in
Speaker 3: economics that Ken Rogof thinks is so important.
Speaker 7: Look, Tom, I have to be honest.
Speaker 10: I've come on this program a lot over the past
Speaker 10: several years and you often bring this up, and I
Speaker 10: don't think I fully realized how influential that paper was
Speaker 10: until kind of reading.
Speaker 2: Through Ken, I need to move the euro.
Speaker 3: It's got to go on my resume, continuing, Yeah, what
Speaker 3: did DFL do?
Speaker 7: Look at it?
Speaker 10: It's it's what they were calling the Brenton Woods Program
Speaker 10: Brentwoods two, and it was, you know, a focus on
Speaker 10: global capital flows as being a really critical driver for
Speaker 10: bond markets and interest rates and and FX. And it
Speaker 10: was a precursor to Ben Bernanke's Global Savings Squad discussions
Speaker 10: in the mid two thousands. And the idea was the
Speaker 10: US was running these very large trade deficits and current
Speaker 10: account deficits and that was leading to a recycling of
Speaker 10: funds back into the US economy, particularly in bond markets,
Speaker 10: keeping term premia low.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 10: And you know, I think that was I really grew
Speaker 10: to appreciate how influential that that research was just because
Speaker 10: of time.
Speaker 3: Slam it forward to your colleague George Sarahvellos. Are you
Speaker 3: guys modeling a further ten percent decline a US dollar?
Speaker 2: We are?
Speaker 10: And I think if you just kind of bring that forward,
Speaker 10: the discussion now is if we are really going to
Speaker 10: be bringing down trade deficits over time, there is going
Speaker 10: to be less global funds to.
Speaker 7: Flow back into the US.
Speaker 2: Eric stein is head, That's good, okay.
Speaker 10: And so that I mean higher term premia, higher estremia
Speaker 10: across the US assets, including bonds.
Speaker 3: Thank you for you get an A plus for studying ROGU.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Matt Lozetti, thank you so much greatly. Appreciated.
Speaker 2: Doctor Lozetti is with Deutsche Bank.
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