1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 2: All right, here we go from. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: Growing aspect, I'm saying it's a cash touchdown that fall. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: go to win. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 2: That's incredible, big banks banks. 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 3: I like to make money. 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combation if you. 9 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: Want to pull. 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 4: And we are underway. 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook. 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 3: Welcome into our Anytime Touchdown betting preview with our own 13 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 3: Jill Gallant from Action Network. 14 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 4: Your host today, Brendan Glashen. 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 3: I'm tossing Jill the softballs and he's just gonna hit 16 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 3: it out of the park as it pertains to how 17 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 3: to bet touchdowns this coming NFL season. This is Jill's 18 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 3: second goal Round with Action Network and we did this 19 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 3: kind of show last year. Jill, I really enjoyed it. 20 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 3: I feel way more comfortable now that I did a 21 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 3: year ago. But I must ask this question, and I 22 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 3: think through your answer people will understand because I think 23 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 3: folks go into any game, it's any NFL Sunday, Monday 24 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 3: Thursday will dive into the intricacies of primetime spots as well. 25 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 3: During this, but the dos and don'ts, the nuts and 26 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,199 Speaker 3: bolts to betting touchdowns. But why does Jill Goalant specialize 27 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 3: in touchdown betting and why do you love it so much? 28 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 2: Sure? And that's a great question, Brendan. 29 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: So, I've been betting on anytime touchdown props really since 30 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, and the market has slowly expanded each year. 31 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: With each new season, different offerings are coming through. And 32 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: the reason why I got into anytime touchdown prop betting 33 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: is I might be biased. I think it is the 34 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: most fun bet to ever exist since the spreads and 35 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: totals have been created. Next up is touchdown props because 36 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: it combines the fantasy element that we love. Everybody loves 37 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: to play fantasy football, but also you can get immediate 38 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: profits if you're properly researched looking at better angles. I 39 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: bet this market exclusively. Now, this past season had a 40 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: big hiccup with how many touchdowns we had come through. 41 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 1: We saw significant drop in touchdowns across the board. So 42 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: I was profitable in my first three seasons of tracking 43 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: touchdown props. Last year I got bent over, I got 44 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: basically ruined, and then by the end of the year 45 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: started to. 46 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 2: Pick it back up. 47 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: Was able to have a really finish the playoffs strong 48 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: and finish the Super Bowl strong, which helped to kind 49 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: of rejuvenate some of the love that you have for betting, 50 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: because sometimes if you're losing a lot, it's almost like 51 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: you get this defeatist attitude. But touchdown prop bets, you 52 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: could have a bad day, then all of a sudden, 53 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: you're hitting a plus five hundred touchdown bet for wide 54 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: receiver three after all the research that you did, and 55 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: it just is such a saving grace, you know. It 56 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: helps reduce the margin of error sometimes when you're betting 57 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: on those minus one ten bets. So I have been 58 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: kind of crafting and finalizing these kind of guidelines and 59 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: rules to help us get to where we need to 60 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: be so that way we can enjoy the touchdown betting. 61 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: We could still make some profit off of it, but 62 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: also if we have a bad year or if it 63 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 1: just doesn't work out from a game to game, we're 64 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: not completely draining our bank roll. 65 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 2: As a result, it's. 66 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 3: A great reminder, no matter what kind of betting you're doing, 67 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 3: to stay the course and you've got to consider the 68 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 3: long haul, especially in the NFL, when one week could 69 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 3: really let you down. There's always the following week, but 70 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 3: also being consistent and we think this time kind of 71 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 3: podcast will help folks at home understand the long term 72 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 3: sustainability that's necessary as far as approach. So first off, 73 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: this is a great way that these kind of how 74 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 3: too episodes that we do here at Action Network rules 75 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 3: and a great way to think about rules is tracking. 76 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 3: And this is again this pertains to any kind of 77 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 3: betting that you're doing, no matter what sport, but especially 78 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 3: with touchdowns. Jill explain how you will go and of 79 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 3: course we will plug. The Action Network app free to download, 80 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 3: you can track all of your picks. But when you 81 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 3: go about tracking, why is that so essential to touchdown betting? 82 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: Well, the key reason why is because it's such a 83 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: bulletile market. There's such swings where you kind of highlighted 84 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: it where you could go all in five on a 85 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: Sunday and then Monday you come around and then you 86 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: go two and one, and that basically cleans up all 87 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: the losses and gets you back on a profitable track. 88 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 2: And part of what happens. 89 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: Is is sometimes when people will just look at their 90 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: bank roll and they'll say, okay, I started off with 91 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: a thousand. They get to the end of the year 92 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: and they're like, okay, I'm still at a thousand, but 93 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: I'm at eleven hundred dollars. You know, I made like 94 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: one hundred dollars in profits. So it was a successful year, 95 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: which is great, but also at the same time, it's 96 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: very important to know how we got there. You want 97 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 1: to be able to know where you're winning. Is it 98 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: on wide receiver touchdown bets? Is it on quarterback touchdown bets? 99 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: You know, the average win rate for a touchdown better. 100 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: Even the best people in this industry, they're probably hitting 101 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: around thirty percent because a lot of the time they're 102 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: betting on guys that are over plus two hundred or more, 103 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: you know, so that could the range of winning can 104 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: be anywhere from zero percent to thirty percent, and it's 105 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: important to know how we got there. So the Action 106 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: Network app. I've used a lot of different tracking methods, 107 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: whether it be pen and paper, you know, an Excel 108 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: spreadsheet or whatever, and the Action app for me, and 109 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 1: again I may sound biased, but I have no hiccups 110 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: about this. The Action Network app has been tremendous for me. 111 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 1: Being able to track your bets, knowing where your successes 112 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: and most importantly, your failures are coming from, to be 113 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 1: able to know where you know if you're getting better 114 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: lines from a CLV perspective, and most importantly, just to 115 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: be able to see the profitability week over week on 116 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 1: what you're doing, because if you're not tracking your successes 117 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: and failures, how are you able to adapt your strategy 118 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: to know which way we need to go to be 119 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: able to adjust this like losing streak or whatever, because 120 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: nobody's really going to make adjustments if you're winning. If 121 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: you're winning, like obviously it's like okay, if it's not broken, 122 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 1: don't fix it. But at the same time, touchdown betting 123 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: it will humble you. You will lose bets, and as 124 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: a result, you need to know what would write and 125 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:00,559 Speaker 1: most importantly what went wrong. 126 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 3: If you could speak to ROI and profitability in this market, 127 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 3: because as you said, it's very simple to just look 128 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 3: at someone's record on any given Sunday and think, well, 129 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 3: they're zero and five. 130 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 4: They don't know what they're talking about. 131 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 3: Well, win percentage doesn't matter all that much, and like 132 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 3: you said, the sharps of this kind of market are 133 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 3: hitting at at thirty percent rate when it comes to 134 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:19,559 Speaker 3: touchdown betting. 135 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 4: But why does ROI matter quite a bit as well? 136 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Brendan's social media plays a big part 137 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: on this because you'll see a lot of accounts, whether 138 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: it be Twitter, Instagram, you name them. You're going to 139 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: see some betting experts that you're on there and saying 140 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: I'm hitting seventy percent of my bed So it's like, okay, 141 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: that's cool, but they don't really mention what the odds 142 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: are or the juice that's coming on. So maybe they're 143 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: hitting at seventy percent, but most of them are at 144 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 1: minus two hundred, so it's like, okay, you have close 145 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: to a sixty to seventy percent chance to win. You're 146 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: not really showing much of an edge here. So the 147 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: beauty of touchdown props is, like you mentioned, on any 148 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: given Sunday, there's over three hundred or more anytime touchdown 149 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: props that are available at sports books and they all 150 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: range from minus one fifty all the way up to 151 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: plus four thousand, you know, and having those longer odds 152 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: of being able to say, go one and two, but 153 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: you hit a plus two to fifty, so you're still 154 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: up about a happy unit and profit having those longer odds. 155 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: Compared to spreads and totals or even just general player 156 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: props that are always the minus one ten on either side, 157 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: touchdown props just offer a bit more forgiveness and a 158 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: bit more margin for error, especially from a lot of 159 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: the time, you know. And I'm not a professional better, 160 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: but I do bet quite a bit, you know. But 161 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: I think that's the main thing of the distinction is 162 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: that a lot of people who are betting touchdown bets, 163 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: they're not betting this to try to get rich or 164 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: try to you know, make this, you know, overarching leap 165 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: to become a professional sports better. They're trying to have fun. 166 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 1: And if you're trying to have fun, losing bets after 167 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: a while cannot be very fun. So you want to 168 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: be able to know, again going back to the app, 169 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: tracking your wins and losses, but also knowing that the 170 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: profits in URI. That's why you want to track it, 171 00:07:58,400 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: to be able to see the kind of money that 172 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 1: you or returning, because if you just look at it as, oh, 173 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: I'm only hitting thirty percent of my bets, it's going 174 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: to feel a little defeatist. But then you actually look 175 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: at the profits and the ROI as a result of 176 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: hitting those thirty percent, and you see that you're up 177 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty maybe thirty units in profit. That's going 178 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: to reassure you much more than just being looking at 179 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: your wins and losses as if like it's a team sport, 180 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: you know, whether or not there's standings or anything like that. 181 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: I think people get a little too married to that 182 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: concept that I have to be hitting fifty percent of 183 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: my bets in order to be considered a successful better. 184 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 1: And that's one of the things about touchdown market is 185 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: that you could hit at thirty percent and still be 186 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: considered a profitable, winning better. 187 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 3: And look, we're like a good example of this for 188 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 3: the current better that might be tuning in and that's 189 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 3: getting ready for football. We're in the thick of baseball 190 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 3: season when folks bet home run props in baseball, I mean, 191 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,439 Speaker 3: a record is a record, but if you're it kind 192 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: of the swings and the sways in that kind of 193 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 3: market are kind of similar where you have to kind 194 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: of stay very humble no matter what kind of day 195 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 3: you might have. As it pertains to dart throw kind 196 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 3: of market pitfalls, some don'ts in this kind of market 197 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 3: when we look at touchdown betting, and this is where 198 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 3: you have an opportunity now to really dive into some 199 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 3: of the specifics and use current previous examples from your 200 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 3: history of doing this. 201 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 4: What are some pitfalls in betting touchdowns? 202 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: Well, you kind of alluded to it just a second ago, Brendan, 203 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: And that's being realistic and managing expectations, because I think 204 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 1: what happens is that every March, you know, football season 205 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: is over. Maybe we're a little more humble than others 206 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 1: just because maybe the season didn't end the way that 207 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: you wanted to, And then there'll be this gap of 208 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 1: you know, two hundred or more days where you're not 209 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: betting on football. Then all of a sudden, you get 210 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: close to Week one and you see betters just with 211 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: this like uninhibited level of confidence, dude, Like that can 212 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 1: only be rivaled by guys who like wear speedos at 213 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 1: the beach, like you know what I mean, Like you 214 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: know what I mean, Like guys at the airport are like, 215 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: you know what, I think I could land that plane, 216 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: Like you know, just the idea of where their confidence 217 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: level is through the roof and they're not remembering or 218 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: or even realizing that, don't forget that there's highs and lows. 219 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: You've got to manage your expectations with touchdown betting and 220 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: keeping that even keel trusting your process. I find another thing, too, 221 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: is it's all about the mentals too, is finding ways 222 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: to help your mind, whether it be diet, rest, meditation, 223 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: Like you got to think, I'm on the East Coast, 224 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: I'm up till one two in the morning watching you know, 225 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: a Sunday night football game, and then I'm back up 226 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: Monday morning because I have young kids, and then I'm 227 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: already looking up Monday night football. My sleep and diet 228 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 1: aren't kind of on the pace of what I need 229 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: to be. I am just so sluggish every other day 230 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: of being able to analyze and cap these games. So 231 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: anything that can keep your mind clear and get rid 232 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: of that negativity is one of the things that I 233 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,719 Speaker 1: would add as well. But a pitfall, dude, right off 234 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: the hop and again this one ruffle feathers last year. 235 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: I'm not trying to do this again, but parlaying touchdown 236 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: bets can be a little troublesome. Now I'm not saying 237 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: not to parlay touchdown bets, but you almost have to 238 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: treat parlaying. And this goes for really parlaying in general, 239 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: but touchdown bets specifically. When you're starting to parlay guys 240 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: that are plus four hundred with another plus four hundred, 241 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: you gotta almost treat it like it's dessert or like 242 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: junk food. 243 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:12,319 Speaker 2: It's okay to. 244 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: Have a treat or have a nice dessert after a 245 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 1: great meal, but it can't be your whole diet. And 246 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: you can't just go in and have supper and be like, Okay, 247 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 1: I'm going to have ice cream with a side of this, 248 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:21,959 Speaker 1: and you could just. 249 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 2: Skip the chicken. 250 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: You know, you can't do that. If you're betting touchdown scores. 251 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: You got to keep dessert or parlays to a minimum 252 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: with a lower steak. So what I do, and this 253 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: is a good suggestion, is what my buddies and I do. 254 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: We do something called the one eighty challenge where we 255 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 1: each submit to each other. It's a group of five 256 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: of us and we each submit a ten dollars parlay 257 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,319 Speaker 1: on behalf of each other, and it's called the one 258 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: eighty challenge. I put a ten dollars parlay in. My 259 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: buddy puts a ten dollars parlay in and then what 260 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: it does is it gives you four or five parlay 261 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: tickets to root for and scratch that itch. But your 262 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 1: only investment was ten dollars. But you put all the 263 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: profits together and then you just put the profits five, 264 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: four ways, whatever your group is. But that gives you 265 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: that ability to be able to have some parlay touchdown 266 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: tickets in, but you're not necessarily putting in your entire 267 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: bank role, just strictly focused on that. Then you know 268 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: that you're only in for about ten, fifteen, maybe twenty 269 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: bucks at the most. And touchdown bets are already super 270 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: volatile because any player can just leave the game on 271 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 1: any play, like just it could be just a little 272 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,719 Speaker 1: nick up. You know they're down already by twenty you 273 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 1: know what, we're just gonna call it. I just think 274 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: that people should save their self the heartbreak of a 275 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: losing parlay from injury. So that way you're only investing 276 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: kind of minimal stake to be able to be invested 277 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 1: in it and more play with the straits. 278 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,559 Speaker 3: And to be clear, the one to eighty challenge is 279 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 3: because there's eighteen weeks in the regular season. 280 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: That's correct, So you're Essentially what you're trying to do 281 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 1: is you're trying to put in like an eighteen to 282 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 1: one parlay each week or more so that way you 283 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: at least make your full season's worth of investment back. 284 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: But you know, sometimes you'll hit three times in a year, 285 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: and so you know, you'll see some of my guys 286 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: that they're doing, they hit it five of eighteen weeks, 287 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 1: and then you're splitting all the profits this way. We 288 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: could dive more into that a little bit later, but 289 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: essentially the one to eighty challenge or even just a 290 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 1: parlay challenge where you're betting within a group, you should 291 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: try to keep it ten dollars a week. Like I 292 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: wouldn't be putting more than you know, twenty dollars at 293 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: most on parlays for a given week, just because if 294 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: your if your average unit is one hundred dollars, you 295 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: just it's not really worth it in that grand scheme. Now, 296 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: it's fun and again it's recreational, but at the same time, 297 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: it's one of those things that if you start going 298 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: down that road where that's the majority of your stake 299 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: instead of betting on straights, I've seen it too many 300 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: times guys are just going to lose their entire bankroll, 301 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: get dejected, and then maybe start having to chase, you know, 302 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: for the Sunday night football game or Monday night football 303 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: game to try to make up for those losses. It's 304 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: just a path that is not it's dark, it's not 305 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 1: very fun, it's lonely. I would just not recommend to 306 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: do that. So parlays again, bet them, but bet them responsibly, 307 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: like you have to be responsible. It's no different than 308 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: managing your bank roll, if you have to be able 309 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: to pay rent or pay your bills. Just that kind 310 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: of mindset. Now, the next thing that I would say 311 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: is a pitfall though. Glash is touchdown scores with minus odds. 312 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: So on a given week there's about thirty to thirty 313 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 1: five players per week with minus odds. And one of 314 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: those players we talked about him last year, Jonathan Taylor. Now, 315 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor got a little nicked up this year. So 316 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: by the time it was like week seven, the way 317 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 1: that the Colts were playing, you know, you started to 318 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: see his odds closer to probably plus one fifty, you know, 319 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: in that range for a starting running back. 320 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 3: But and just to play play off of that we were. 321 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 3: Last year was our first, so Jill, this is Jill's 322 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 3: second year working at Action Network. Jonathan Taylor had an 323 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 3: unbelievable COVID season and that is why he emerged as 324 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 3: that dude because he was in the MVP conversation. So 325 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 3: looking at the early part of twenty twenty two for 326 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor was a result of how well he played 327 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one, just speaking to the early weeks 328 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 3: of last year. 329 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: No great clarification, and somebody who was a good example 330 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: of the way that Jonathan Taylor was in twenty twenty 331 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: one is Travis Kelcey in twenty twenty two and one 332 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: of the few players that has minus odds routinely week 333 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 1: to week. And don't get me wrong, Travis Kelcey, he's 334 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 1: the man. Like twelve touchdowns last year, it is probably 335 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: gonna be a first round pick of most people's fantasy drafts, 336 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: and likely he's gonna have double digit touchdowns again. But 337 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: let's just look at twenty twenty two. So in seventeen games, 338 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: because he played the full season, he had fifteen of 339 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: seventeen games he was minus odds. So even though he 340 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: scored twelve touchdowns for example, two of those games he 341 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: had a three touchdown game and a four touchdown game, 342 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: and if you had just bet him one unit per 343 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 1: game for all seventeen games, he would have actually been 344 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: down about four and a half units in profit for 345 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: the season for his anytime touchdown props. And just for reference, 346 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: like I track all the touchdown propods for every player 347 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: for every team, if you just go look at the Chiefs, 348 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: he was eleventh on the Chiefs in touchdown profits last year. 349 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 1: You would have had better luck just betting on Justin 350 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: Watson every week and he would have hit one week 351 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: because he did score Week two against the Chargers and 352 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: he was like plus eight hundred because Mchole Hartman went 353 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: down and you would have been up profit for the 354 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: entire year if you had just went on a periphery 355 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: guy like Justin Taylor, Justin Watson instead of just trying 356 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 1: to bank on Travis kelcey and getting those profits because 357 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: he's usually around the minus one twenty to minus one 358 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: forty range. 359 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 3: And if you don't look, if you don't have to 360 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 3: look all that far to see Jerk McKinnon scored. He 361 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 3: had nine receiving touchdowns last year. He's not far behind 362 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 3: the top receiving touchdown leaders from last year. 363 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: Absolutely, and so when betting at minus odds, just overall, 364 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: it's a losing proposition. So here's another reason why I 365 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: try to tell people to avoid this. So last year 366 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, there were two hundred and seventy 367 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: eight instances of a player being at minus odds, So 368 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty five of those times somebody scored. 369 00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: So just for reference, that's forty eight point five percent. 370 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: Now why I bring that up is is that if 371 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: it's minus one ten from a sports book, automatically, that's 372 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: a fifty to fifty percent edge on each side based 373 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,919 Speaker 1: with the viig. But if you're looking at somebody just 374 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 1: at this course of this past season, where you're knowing 375 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: that minus odds players hit at forty eight percent, when 376 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: you bet into a minus touchdown score, you're pretty much 377 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: giving up a two percent edge right before you bet, 378 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 1: and that edge that you have just gets worse as 379 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: the number goes up. So if you're looking at a 380 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 1: Derek Henry at like minus one fifty, or you know 381 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, I've seen him as high as minus one 382 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: seventy five. Now, these guys are great players, but they're 383 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: just not going to score every week. That's really the reality. 384 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,959 Speaker 1: So and books are much sharper now with and they 385 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: don't offer a no touchdown option. You either have it's 386 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: yes or nothing, so you'll hit on occasion when you 387 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: bet on minus touchdown guys. But really, there's just so 388 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: much value elsewhere that I would just say to look 389 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: a little bit farther down the list, or maybe don't. 390 00:17:58,320 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 2: Bet that game. 391 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: There's so many other football games going on throughout the 392 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: course of a season. I just think you'd be better 393 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: served to maybe looking down the board and trying to 394 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: find value elsewhere instead of betting on somebody who like 395 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey, who I think is fantastic, but just will 396 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: not be somebody who yields a ton of touchdown profits 397 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 1: in the anytime touchdown market. 398 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 3: We'll dive into the use of good data versus bad 399 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 3: data in a second, but it's not so much the why, 400 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 3: because you've kind of explained the why. But how does 401 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 3: Joe Galant utilize odd odds comparison tools in terms of going. 402 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 4: Week to week? 403 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the reason why you have to look 404 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: at odds comparison tools and Action Network has a fantastic 405 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: tool on their app where you're able to see every 406 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 1: single player for every single game for all the different 407 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: sports books in your state to be able to compare 408 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,640 Speaker 1: the odds on what's being offered, because touchdown score odds 409 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: vary heavily. 410 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 2: From sportsbook to sportsbook. 411 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 1: And the best example is somebody a friend of the podcast, 412 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: David Paine, who is our producer, loves to bet on 413 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, for example, with the New Orleans States, and 414 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: his odds range so much from book to book because 415 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: of what his capability is because he has the goal 416 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: line scory capability, he's gotten red zone targets before in 417 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: that offense, and his anytime touchdown odds can range from 418 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: plus two fifties sometimes to up to plus five hundred 419 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: in the given week and depending on the sports book. 420 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 2: So, as I said, using the Action app and using our. 421 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: Odds comparison tool will make sure that you're getting the 422 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: best value because you don't want to leave money on. 423 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 2: The table as you're going through this. 424 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: And having multiple sportsbook accounts is also one other thing 425 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: that I would recommend it. So if you have that 426 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 1: odds comparison tool, but you only have one sports book 427 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: set up, it's best practice to have at least you know, 428 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: if there's five sports books in your state, you should 429 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: have an account with all five of them to be 430 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: able to go between books and being able to find 431 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,360 Speaker 1: the best value, because that's what happens over a course 432 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: of a season, is that if you're just married to 433 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: a specific sports book and that's the only sportsbook that 434 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: you like, there's a good chance that you're leaving money 435 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 1: on the table because you didn't decide to go just 436 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: shop around look elsewhere. 437 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 3: So you use Travis Kelcey as an example, I would 438 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 3: even look at now the way the quarterback position has 439 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 3: evolved in the rushing capability of Adjailent Hurts or a 440 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 3: Josh Allen even in some circumstances guys that aren't as 441 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 3: mobile or Lamar Jackson is another one who really in 442 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,199 Speaker 3: most cases, as you've highlighted, like he could be featured 443 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 3: as in terms of odds as having running back odds 444 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 3: goal line back kind of odds. So goal line stats 445 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 3: are important. I know one thing you brought up, and 446 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 3: I'm not trying to steal your thunder, just using these 447 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 3: historical points from when we've worked together last year. Red 448 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 3: zone target share is a number that you look at, 449 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 3: So it's it's important not to just look at the 450 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 3: box score or just go to any sort of generic 451 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 3: mainstream media site and see, well, you know, Travis Kelcey 452 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 3: has three touchdowns in his last two games. 453 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 4: What stats are important to you? 454 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 3: And also take us behind the curtain a bit in 455 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 3: terms of the odds, which ones are already baked in? 456 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 3: So why that's important to decipher? 457 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: Yes, and not all stats that's are created equal, Like 458 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: obviously the traditional stats like you mentioned, like targets and receptions, 459 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: it's important to know that when betting on a wide 460 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: receiver touchdown prop I'm not going to pretend like those 461 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 1: aren't important factors, but a lot of that stuff is 462 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: kind of already baked into the odds. So the so 463 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: one guy that I look at, Deontay Johnson with the 464 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,719 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers, amazing wide receiver, finished with one hundred and 465 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: forty seven targets. That was more than aj Brown, that 466 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 1: was more than Amari Cooper. Those two wide receivers they 467 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: combined for close to twenty touchdowns. But once you start 468 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 1: to look a little deeper into the stats, like the 469 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 1: routes run, red zone targets, the cornerback matchups, the overall 470 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: target share and pass attempts, or a yardage per pass 471 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: attempt who's throwing the damn ball like a Mitch Trubisky 472 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: or a Kenny Pickett like Then you could start to 473 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 1: look at something as simple as just catchable ball rate 474 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 1: in the red zone. Deontay Johnson last year his catchable 475 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: ball rate in the red zone was thirty five percent. 476 00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: The median for that stat is around fifty percent all round, 477 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: up to fifty just for sake. But then another thing 478 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: that you can look at is if you like red 479 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: zone targets, you could look a little deeper into those 480 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: red zone targets. So in seventeen games, Deontay Johnson only 481 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: had five red zone targets when the Steelers were inside 482 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: the ten yard line because a lot of the time 483 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: what they were doing was they were going back to 484 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: Najie Harris or they would you know, Kenny Pickett ran 485 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 1: for three. 486 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 2: Touchdowns in his first two games. Mitch Trubisky ran for 487 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 2: another touchdown as well. 488 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: And what was happening by the time we're getting to 489 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 1: week sixteen with a guy who's so talented like Deontay 490 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 1: Johnson books just feasted off of the Well he's due, 491 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 1: you know, and I mean, look at the targets. We 492 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: gotta bet him, you know, And it's like, no, you 493 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: don't like not when the rookie quarterback doesn't throw farther 494 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: than five yards per pass attempt, or the Steelers just 495 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: refused to run a passing play within the red zone. 496 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: They had the lowest red zone pass rate as well 497 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 1: this past year. So that's another thing that you could 498 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: look at as far as diving a little bit deeper 499 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: into just red zone targets. And once you start to 500 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,719 Speaker 1: factor in more data than just the surf surface stats 501 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 1: and knowing that there's a box score, that box score 502 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: context is key your your touchdown betting and research will 503 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: just open up exponentially as far as angles and ways 504 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: that you want to. 505 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 2: Attack the market. 506 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 4: Interesting. 507 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 3: That's that's a great example too. I think Kenny Pickett 508 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 3: for the record will be better this year. He's actually 509 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 3: kind of underrated in my opinion. But yeah, well it 510 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 3: depends also, but I think if you could dive in 511 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 3: just on the receiver note what kinds of receivers that 512 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 3: you're betting on? Two matters right, like, that's that's not 513 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 3: that doesn't require stats. That also requires watching the games, 514 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 3: and there are there is statistical support to this, but 515 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 3: it just proves that looking at a box score and 516 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,719 Speaker 3: seeing eight to ten targets a game doesn't mean all. 517 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,439 Speaker 4: It doesn't mean jack unless no happening. Go ahead, and 518 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 4: Brenda I was. 519 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: Going to say that the two things that you can 520 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,639 Speaker 1: look at is you can see how teams defend the 521 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 1: slot because a lot of offenses have changed now because 522 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: of the Kansas City Chiefs and their deep throw. They're 523 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,360 Speaker 1: playing too high safety now to prevent those. 524 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 3: We saw the details in that in the Quarterback documentary 525 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 3: on Netflix, Patrick Posts breaking that down. 526 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 4: It's a good call and so. 527 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 1: As a result, the slot and over the middle is 528 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 1: wide open as opposed to what we saw two or 529 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: three years ago. So this past year you could even 530 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 1: just look up to see that the Chiefs and the 531 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: Buccaneers were actually bottom two in the NFL and touchdowns 532 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,679 Speaker 1: allowed from the slot. So you just saw it. In 533 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: this past playoffs, you saw Dallas Gotter and aj Brown 534 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:37,719 Speaker 1: were able to kind of get open and what they 535 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 1: could do. In the Super Bowl, Christian Kirk scored a 536 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: touchdown against the Chiefs right away, Dalton Schultz, same thing 537 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: in the playoffs scored against the Bucks. You're starting to 538 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 1: see where the key things like that, like in the slot, 539 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 1: are actually being more efficient than just seeing the general 540 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 1: targets and receptions of whether or not that's actually viable. 541 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 1: But I wanted to go back to one that you 542 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,719 Speaker 1: were talking about, which is specifically the quarterbacks, and because that, 543 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 1: to me is the most notable thing of what we've 544 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 1: seen over the last three years about how quarterback value 545 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 1: in general, like the touchdown market, you're seeing books be 546 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 1: much sharper now where a few years ago, back with 547 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: Tom Brady his last year with the Patriots, you could 548 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: get him close to like twenty five to one to 549 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: score a touchdown, and now, or prior to his retirement, 550 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 1: in his final year, you weren't seeing odds better than 551 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 1: seven to one. 552 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 2: And it's not like he all of a sudden became you. 553 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: Know, Jalen Hurts out there where he's juking guys like 554 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: there's only really one way that Tom Brady scores a 555 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: touchdown and he just falls in at the one yard line. 556 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 3: And he'd tell you that Madden was not fair to 557 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 3: him as far as his speed ratings were. But yeah, 558 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 3: you're right, either he's falling down the classic Brady QB 559 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 3: sneak goal line or just for a first down. 560 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: So the casual better. You would immediately look at the 561 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 1: quarterback markets and think of all the quarterbacks and you'd think, well, 562 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 1: who was the most profitable quarterback in twenty twenty two. 563 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: It had to be Jalen Hurts, right, Jalen Hurts. He 564 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: ran for thirteen touchdowns, He scored a nine to fifteen games. 565 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: The problem with a guy like Jalen Hurts or Josh 566 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: Allen or Lamar Jackson, and why it's difficult to want 567 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: to bet on those guys week to week every week, 568 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 1: is that their odds are around you know, even money 569 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,439 Speaker 1: to about plus one twenty each week. So if you 570 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 1: had bet on Jalen Hurts every week for those fifteen 571 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: games that he played, you would have made about three 572 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: point nine units in profit. 573 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 2: Not bad. 574 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 1: But then you look at the rest of the team 575 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: and you look at Gardner Minshew who only played two games, 576 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 1: and he ran for a touchdown against the Cowboys, and 577 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:30,639 Speaker 1: if you would just bet him, you would have been 578 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: up about five units in profit for the year, which 579 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: is why it's hilarious that, you know, sometimes I think 580 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 1: we're always trying to find the guy that you know 581 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: that's going to score because we want a winner, when 582 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 1: really we should be looking at the best value on 583 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 1: what's available. So from a quarterback standpoint, this past year, 584 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: the most profitable quarterback was Joe Burrow, even about seventeen 585 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 1: point seven units if you would bet him every game. 586 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 1: His biggest score of the season was around plus seven 587 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,439 Speaker 1: fifty when he scored a beautiful running touchdown against the 588 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: Saints where it wasn't like this you know, five yard 589 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: fall in like he ran for a good twenty to 590 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,959 Speaker 1: twenty five yards and he kind of took that crown 591 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: from Ryan Tannehill, who was my guy in twenty twenty 592 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: one and twenty twenty that guy, you know, combined, he 593 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: was the most profitable quarterback to run in both each 594 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,959 Speaker 1: of those seasons. Now, I thought Joe Burrow would probably 595 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: be the guy who I'd be looking at for twenty 596 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: twenty three, but you know, we just saw that injury 597 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 1: in the preseason. 598 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 2: He pulls his. 599 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 1: Calf, Rushing attempts early in the season are likely be limited. 600 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: I think the twenty twenty three version of who we're 601 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 1: looking for from a quarterback standpoint, we got to be 602 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 1: looking at Trevor Lawrence now, and his odds typically ranged 603 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 1: between plus three fifty and plus five hundred. He finished 604 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 1: about seven point seven units in profit for a quarterback, 605 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: which would have been third in the NFL for all 606 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: NFL quarterbacks. So I think Trevor Lawrence, like the guy 607 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 1: that you want is the guy who's more of a 608 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 1: prototypical pocket passer but also has the capability to be 609 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: able to run when the when the play breaks down, 610 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: And those older quarterbacks like Brady Roger, you know, they're 611 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 1: difficult to want to bank on in this kind of market. 612 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,199 Speaker 1: So I think Trevor Lawrence is gonna be the new 613 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. And Joe Burrow was the new Ryan Tannehill. 614 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 1: So we're gonna see how that goes. But before we 615 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 1: move on, this is the final thing I wanted to 616 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: bring up, Brandon, because this is near and dear to 617 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 1: your heart. You're in Massachusetts, man, who do you think 618 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 1: was the most profitable player last year for any time 619 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,640 Speaker 1: touchdown market? It's a bit of a trick question because 620 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 1: it's because it's not a player so this is the 621 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 1: one thing that's a little bit tricky. 622 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,879 Speaker 3: No, I know what it's gonna be. I know exactly 623 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,960 Speaker 3: what this is. The Patriots defense. 624 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: The Patriots defense was unreal in twenty twenty two. They 625 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 1: scored seven defensive touchdowns. If you would just bet that 626 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 1: defensive unit every week all seventeen games, you would have 627 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: made forty units in profit. It's insane. And not only that, 628 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 1: they were hitting routinely at like seven to one. And 629 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: then it's another set. They had two seven to one 630 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: hits in both Week eleven and Week sixteen. Now, but 631 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: I wanted to bring up fifteen specifically to you, Brandon, 632 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 1: because you were in attendance for one of those touchdowns. 633 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,959 Speaker 1: Kyle Dugger had an interception return touchdown on Derek Carr, 634 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: and that touchdown kind of gets overlooked or glossed over 635 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: because as a result, the way that that game finished 636 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 1: was with another defensive touchdown and arguably one of the 637 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: biggest dumb, boneheaded plays in football you'll ever watch. So 638 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 1: that's why I wanted to bring that up to you, 639 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: because a, I know you're a Patriots fan, but also 640 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 1: I kind of wanted to maybe just stick it to 641 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: you a little bit just to remind you that, yeah, 642 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,479 Speaker 1: their defense is awesome, but maybe their offense might need 643 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 1: a need an overhaul. 644 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you for coming back, Bill O'Brian. Thankfully with 645 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 3: those two knuckleheads running the show last year in Joe 646 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 3: Judge and Matt, Patricia Judge is still there. Patricia's gone, Oh, 647 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 3: I didn't know you were going to do that. 648 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 4: Wow, that was so mean but also very appropriate. Really quick. 649 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 4: This is more of a. 650 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 3: Specific thing, and this it's actually something we haven't discussed, 651 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 3: but this feels obvious. But monitoring injury reports, which then 652 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 3: factors into how a depth. 653 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 4: Chart would look. 654 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 3: And I feel like for a Sunday, we're just overloaded 655 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,719 Speaker 3: with your shifters and your wrap reports as far as 656 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 3: like questionable guys and guys that might give it a go, 657 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 3: but they're not gonna be one hundred percent. There's a 658 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 3: lot to monitor. But I really feel like when folks 659 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 3: are betting this market touchdowns Thursday night football, especially because 660 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 3: it's a short week Monday night's a little different because 661 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 3: in theory, you're coming off maybe a Thursday night game 662 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 3: from the previous week. In a lot of cases, that's 663 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 3: how the schedules usually is formulated if a team's playing 664 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 3: on a Thursday night, and even that that's true too 665 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 3: if some teams play on a Thursday night. 666 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 4: They played on they are coming off a buy something 667 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 4: of the like. 668 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 3: But in a lot of cases, especially early in the year, 669 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 3: we're gonna see teams play on Thursday night after just 670 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 3: playing on Sunday, So monitoring injuries crucial. And then we 671 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 3: can also off of that discuss how you bet standalone 672 00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 3: games and what your approaches to that. So first on 673 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 3: the injuries, how you go about deciphering injury news. 674 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 1: So yeah, with with injuries, uh, Wednesday and Thursday, Like 675 00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 1: if we're just using standalone games as the example and 676 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,080 Speaker 1: putting the full Sunday one pm Eastern slot off to 677 00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: the side. 678 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 2: A lot of the time, what you kind of have 679 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 2: to do is kind of. 680 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: Play injury report roulette, Like you have to be able 681 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 1: to go back and see the injury just to see 682 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: if it was that bad. Like if you see a 683 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: saw guy's knee twist, you know, on Sunday and then 684 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: it's coming up to Thursday, it's probably a pretty good 685 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: likelihood that he's either not playing or or he's going 686 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 1: to be limited. So One of the things that you'll 687 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 1: see happen is if you use like the Chargers. For example, 688 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: guy gets on Sunday, Mike Williams maybe twists his knee. 689 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 2: A little bit. 690 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 1: Maybe he's going to try to give it a go 691 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 1: on Thursday. But you're looking at the odds and you 692 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 1: see wide receiver three, you see Josh Palmer, who would 693 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: assume Williams role if he doesn't, if he doesn't play 694 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: around like plus three fifty maybe to plus four hundred, Well, 695 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 1: you already know that Mike Williams is probably going to 696 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 1: be limited anyway, so you know likely his snap councler 697 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: going to go down. Maybe he's not utilized as much 698 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 1: in three receiver sets and more in the red zone. 699 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: So if that's the case, what you probably want to 700 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 1: do is put a bet in on Josh Palmer. See 701 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 1: how it goes. And this happened to me last year 702 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 1: in Week two. Mike Williams goes down Josh Palmer. I 703 00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 1: was grabbing him at four to one and going into 704 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 1: the game he's around plus one fifty because Williams had 705 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 1: gotten ruled out. So a lot of the time with 706 00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 1: injury reports, you almost have to kind of take a 707 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: chance and just accept the fact that maybe you are 708 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: going to be betting a wide receiver three in the 709 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 1: spot instead of a wide receiver two. And then the 710 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 1: other thing that I was going to say too, with 711 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 1: standalone games, you probably don't want to bet more than 712 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 1: two or maybe three units total, Like so three picks, 713 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: if you're doing one unit per pick, I wouldn't do 714 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: more than three because even the best NFL offenses and 715 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 1: best games that you'll ever see that are shootouts, you're 716 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: probably not seeing more than four or five touchdowns scored 717 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 1: in an entire game. 718 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 3: So I mean, I mean, folks, how many times last 719 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 3: year just think about this for a second. 720 00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 4: How many times did you watch a Thursday. 721 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 3: Night game last year and you were like, wow, this 722 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 3: is dreadful in terms of and look, unders hit at 723 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 3: a great rate last year. For most of the first 724 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,479 Speaker 3: half of the year, really about three quarters of the year, 725 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,200 Speaker 3: Unders were hitting at a significant rate. 726 00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football was a big contributor to that. 727 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. 728 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 1: And the other thing too, is like when it was 729 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 1: some of the matchups like you would see Broncos Colts 730 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 1: which finished like twelve to nine, there were no touchdowns 731 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: scored in that game. It was probably the worst football 732 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 1: game I ever watched that by the time we got 733 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 1: to the end of the game or midway through the 734 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 1: third quarter, I'm like laughing to myself with how inept 735 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: these teams are. So Thursday night is probably a one 736 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: game that I would probably try to maybe stick closer 737 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: to two bets. Maybe you could bet one on one side, 738 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: one on the other. And again it is differing from 739 00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: game to game because we have seen some shootouts on 740 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 1: Thursday as well, where the defenses are just deciding, you 741 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 1: know what, We're not going to play that much, you know, 742 00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 1: this week, and just let's let the scoring happen. And 743 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 1: so one of the things that I'm already looking at 744 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 1: now is guys that I'm going to be wanting to 745 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 1: bet for Week one. And one of the things that 746 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,160 Speaker 1: I like to do is try to project the odds. 747 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 1: Because I'm projecting the odds all year. I track the 748 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: odds as well and kind of have like a cutoff 749 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 1: so that way I know that if he's higher than 750 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 1: these odds, then I'm going to betting him. If he's 751 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 1: lower than those odds, I'll just steer clear for that week. 752 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 1: And the first guy that I was looking at is 753 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 1: David Nijoku with the Cleveland Browns. He's one of my 754 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,600 Speaker 1: favorite guys to bet for anytime touchdown props. But here's 755 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 1: something that again I'm going to be sharing on the 756 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 1: Action Network as we get closer to the end of 757 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 1: the month, you don't really want to bet on David 758 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,240 Speaker 1: Njoku outside of AFC North games because he has scored 759 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,240 Speaker 1: nineteen touchdowns in his career. He has played twenty seven 760 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 1: games against AFC North opponents, fifty two games against out 761 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 1: of division teams, So he has scored eleven of those 762 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 1: nineteen touchdowns against AFC North opponents, so that's a forty 763 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,359 Speaker 1: percent touchdown rate in his career, whereas eight of those 764 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: touchdowns are against out of division teams, so that drops 765 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 1: all the way down to fifteen percent. So for David Nijoku, 766 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 1: he feasts saw FAFC NO opponents, not so much against 767 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,480 Speaker 1: outside of the division, and coincidentally, Week one, who's their 768 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 1: opponent the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that he has scored 769 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 1: on in five of nine career playoff career games. Rather, 770 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,920 Speaker 1: so I'm projecting right now for David njok who, based 771 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,920 Speaker 1: on being in this offense and where he is right 772 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: now in the pecking order as far as scoring, probably 773 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 1: around plus three hundred is where his touchdown odds are 774 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,000 Speaker 1: going to be. So if it's less than plus three hundred, 775 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:26,799 Speaker 1: baby steer clear. But I got a feeling we're going 776 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 1: to see it, probably plus three hundred or more for 777 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,399 Speaker 1: a Week one against a. 778 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 2: Fairly strong Bengals team. 779 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 1: But in the NFC, one guy that I'm looking at 780 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,320 Speaker 1: immediately right now is Van Jefferson, who's going to be 781 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 1: now in this wide receiver two slot. Everybody was all 782 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 1: over Allan Robinson last year, knowing that Cooper Cup was 783 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 1: going to get the majority of the looks and the targets, 784 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 1: and that he was going to get the majority of 785 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: the defensive attention. So Allan Robinson in theory should have 786 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 1: had a decent season, but he was just washed and 787 00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,240 Speaker 1: just did not fit well in that Rams offense, whereas 788 00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 1: Van Jefferson has been amazing with Sean McVay in this 789 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 1: offense over the last two years. Van Jefferson is the 790 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,000 Speaker 1: most profitable Ram right now, with nine touchdowns in twenty 791 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,920 Speaker 1: eight games. His average touchdown odds with Matt Stafford at 792 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 1: quarterback is around plus two to twenty and now Cup 793 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,480 Speaker 1: and Stafford are both projected back for week one, So 794 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 1: I'm projecting Van Jefferson's week line around plus one ninety, 795 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 1: hoping FanDuel will do us a solid and give us 796 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,320 Speaker 1: a nice plus one ninety. But this has be my cutoff. 797 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: I wouldn't bet him any lower than that. And the 798 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 1: final guy, I mean, you know where I'm going with this, Brandon. 799 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,719 Speaker 1: We're taking Dawson Knox, and really the rule is is 800 00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,400 Speaker 1: that you always want to look at him when he 801 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,200 Speaker 1: is over plus two hundred. It's a very simple rule, 802 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,560 Speaker 1: but it has done me very well. For example, in 803 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 1: nine games this year, he was over plus two hundred 804 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 1: and he scored in six of them, and he scored 805 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 1: six total touchdowns in twenty twenty two. So what does 806 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:50,480 Speaker 1: that tell you is that when he's over plus two 807 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 1: hundred and sportsbooks are maybe not giving him that favorable treatment, 808 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 1: that's when he seems to be able to excel because 809 00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 1: he's a strong red zone threat in this offense, of 810 00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,520 Speaker 1: his six touchdowns were scored from that distance. 811 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 2: The fly and the ointment. 812 00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 1: Is that they drafted a first round pick a tight 813 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 1: end in Dalton Kincaid out of Utah, so both are 814 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,240 Speaker 1: likely going to get used a lot in leven personnel. 815 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,680 Speaker 1: I'm still gonna opt for Knox in this spot just 816 00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,800 Speaker 1: based on the report that he has with Josh Allen. 817 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 1: Plus the other thing too is that maybe think, okay, 818 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 1: they're drafting a first round tight end. This could be tricky. 819 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 1: This might be Dawson Knox. He might get cut. They 820 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,239 Speaker 1: just pay Dawson Knox before the start of the twenty 821 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,320 Speaker 1: twenty two year. He's still got a ton of guaranteed 822 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,720 Speaker 1: money left on his deal, so he's not going anywhere, 823 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 1: so they're gonna be using him a lot in this spot. 824 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 1: I still think Dawson Knox is the guy that you 825 00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:38,760 Speaker 1: want to bet over Dalton Kinkaid. 826 00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:40,520 Speaker 2: But again it depends on the odds. 827 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,600 Speaker 1: If he's less than plus two hundred, maybe steer clear, 828 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:46,080 Speaker 1: maybe start to consider Kinkaid. But I think for week 829 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,239 Speaker 1: one right now, looking at the bill schedule, you're gonna 830 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 1: get him around plus two to twenty, all. 831 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,759 Speaker 4: Right, And they are at the New York Jets Monday 832 00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:52,280 Speaker 4: night football. 833 00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 3: So there's a standalone example that Joe Golant is already 834 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 3: on for Week one. 835 00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:57,200 Speaker 4: This was fun. 836 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 3: I always enjoy this I'm looking forward to it. I 837 00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,920 Speaker 3: already feel so prepared now that this is my second 838 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:03,880 Speaker 3: year doing this show with you. 839 00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:04,879 Speaker 4: But hopefully folks that. 840 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,200 Speaker 3: Did catch you last year, you're doing the Touchdown Show 841 00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 3: again this year with the Action Network each Sunday. 842 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:12,239 Speaker 4: That's correct, right, that's right. 843 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Touchdown Show will be right after convince me. 844 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,759 Speaker 1: It's going to air around ten thirty am Eastern on 845 00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,840 Speaker 1: the Action YouTube page, so make sure to go like 846 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 1: and subscribe for that and the primetime games. I'm going 847 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 1: to have touchdown picks for every primetime game. There's likely 848 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,240 Speaker 1: going to be a video that's released on social media 849 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: and YouTube so you can see my analysis and see 850 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:34,960 Speaker 1: which way that I'm picking. They'll also be available on 851 00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:36,960 Speaker 1: the Action Network apps, so you can download the app 852 00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,279 Speaker 1: and be able to get the picks maybe before the 853 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 1: content comes out. And also I'll be tracking the weekly 854 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,480 Speaker 1: any NFL anytime touchdown odds, so I'll be sharing that 855 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,880 Speaker 1: every Tuesday to show like, who's the biggest hit of 856 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,680 Speaker 1: the week, who's the most profitable guy. All that stuff 857 00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:52,600 Speaker 1: to be able to help you with your touchdown bets 858 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:54,360 Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty three NFL season. 859 00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,319 Speaker 3: I can't wait till a tight end six scores in 860 00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,920 Speaker 3: like week three, and Jill is going to share that information. 861 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 4: It's going to be great. 862 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,799 Speaker 3: Jolt Action Network contributor catch him during the season leading 863 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 3: up to the season as well if he adds anything 864 00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 3: else as odds start to come out for Week one. 865 00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:12,040 Speaker 3: For now, it's just totals insides, so we'll once those 866 00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:13,680 Speaker 3: odds come out, though, I'm sure Joe will be very 867 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:17,879 Speaker 3: busy in the free to download Action Network. That concludes 868 00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:22,239 Speaker 3: our Anytime Touchdown betting preview for the twenty twenty three 869 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,600 Speaker 3: NFL season. For Joeglant, I'm Brendan glass Sheen. Thanks for 870 00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 3: tuning into the Action Network podcast presented by Fandel. 871 00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:30,080 Speaker 4: We'll talk to you again real soon. 872 00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,160 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 873 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,400 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 874 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,319 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 875 00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler