1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 3: Throwing out. 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 2: We're saying it's a cash We see most gamblers when 5 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 2: they go to gamble, they go to win. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: That's incredible. 7 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: I like to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combining and. 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: Want to fall and we are underway. Welcome to the 11 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast, presented by Bett MGM. I'm Evan Abrams. 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 2: Jillgallant is not with us tonight. He is under the weather, 13 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 2: so I'm going to be solo. I'm going to go 14 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: through all the games from divisional weekend to a little 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: preview of the conference championship matchups as well. Uh so 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: let's get right into it. Let's roll. So we had 17 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 2: the one seeds entering the weekend with Baltimore and San 18 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: Francisco an interesting enough, they clinched the one seeds in 19 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: their respective conferences in actually week seventeen. That was the 20 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 2: first time that had happened since the Saints and Colts 21 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 2: in two thousand and nine, and they met in the 22 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 2: Super Bowl. So we're gonna see if history repeats itself. 23 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: And one other piece of information, So five of the 24 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: six games in the wild Card round last week and 25 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 2: we're decided by fourteen points. Well, this week, unto the 26 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 2: Division round, we had three of the four games decided 27 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: by one score, So the best turnaround possible and an 28 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: overall trend that we did see this weekend, teams didn't 29 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 2: perform their best on short rest. So the Packers, Bucks, 30 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: and Bills we're all on short rest this weekend with 31 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 2: their opponents not in that same position. Those teams are 32 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: now five and fifteen straight up eight and twelve against 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: the spread over the last twenty years in the playoffs. 34 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: So something to look for in the future. But let's 35 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 2: get to these matchups now. So Detroit at San Francisco. 36 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: San Francisco's about a seven point fifth favorite, fifty one 37 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: is the total, and then you've got the Kansas City 38 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 2: Chiefs at the Baltimore Ravens. Ravens three and a half 39 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 2: it looks like at the moment with some threes out 40 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 2: there and the total at forty five. First just thought 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 2: on the matchups is how many tickets the books are 42 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 2: going to be printing this weekend. With San Francisco money 43 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 2: line and Baltimore money line attached, that pays out about 44 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: plus one point fifteen. If the early game does hit 45 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 2: with the Ravens, a lot of juice is going to 46 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 2: be on the forty nine ers late. But let's get 47 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: to this Houston Baltimore game first so we can recap that. 48 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 2: Then we'll get to case after that. So the Texans 49 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: end up being still the only team in the NFL 50 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 2: to never have a road playoff win, and the performanceier 51 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 2: wasn't very pretty. They score three points on offense and 52 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 2: their two lowest scoring outputs of the year end up 53 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: just coming against the Ravens. Ravens outscore them fifty nine 54 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 2: to nineteen. Texans just really weren't in this one, which 55 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 2: is a weird thing to say, considering it was ten 56 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: to ten and a half. But even at that point 57 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: Baltimore not playing great, Texans still only have the punt 58 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 2: return in three points on offense, and then Ravens second 59 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 2: half just end up kind of taking over the game. 60 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: Ravens have twelve rush first downs while the Texans just 61 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 2: had one. The Ravens ran twenty more plays in the 62 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 2: same amount of drives, and the two hundred and twenty 63 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: nine yards on forty two carries for Baltimore, it just 64 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 2: ended up controlling the game, the time of possession. All 65 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: of the above, and the Texans eleven penalties kind of 66 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 2: shot them in the foot at different points, but Lamar 67 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: does it. He covers the spread, and covers the spread 68 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 2: by a large margin. Lamar has now covered two games 69 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 2: in his last eleven hundred days as a seven point 70 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 2: favorite or higher, both coming against Houston, so that narrative 71 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: probably not going anywhere. But he played great. One hundred rushings. 72 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 2: He now has three playoff games with one hundred plus yards, 73 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 2: only quarterback in history to do that. Just controlled the 74 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 2: game all around. His QB rating in this game one 75 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty eight point three that has forty three 76 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 2: points higher than his previous playoff high. He just played great. 77 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you. Now. 78 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 2: Does that translate to having to play the Chiefs next week? 79 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 2: Are we going to believe that the performance can be repeated? 80 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 2: While the Chiefs defense have played really, really well this year, 81 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 2: the best defense Mahomes has had an EPA per play, 82 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 2: so gonna be a difficult matchup. Baltimore last face Kansas 83 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 2: City in Week two of twenty twenty one. Mahomes did 84 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:47,239 Speaker 2: face Lamar Baltimore one at home thirty six thirty five 85 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 2: as a three and a half point dog. Overall, Lamar 86 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 2: is one and three straight up and two and two 87 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 2: against the spread versus is Mahomes one in one at 88 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 2: home in that spot. So in the matchup, they're gonna 89 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,239 Speaker 2: get Mark Andrews back. We know Kansas City struggles versus 90 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 2: the run, and Baltimore again coming off two hundred and 91 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: twenty nine so yards on the ground against the Texans 92 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 2: and Lamar's one hundred, they should be able to run 93 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 2: the ball. In my opinion, as long as Hardboll sticks 94 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 2: with the game plan, I think Baltimore is the right play. 95 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 2: I hit the money line as soon as I could 96 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 2: at like one fifty five. It's like one sixty five 97 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 2: range out there right now. Once that I did look 98 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 2: up with the fact that Baltimore Ravens were coming off 99 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 2: such a big win. Is teams off a twenty point 100 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 2: win entering a conference championship, six and one straight up, 101 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 2: five and oh straight up at home. Recently that was 102 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 2: Philadelphia and twenty three Chiefs in twenty Patriots and eighteen 103 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: all all winning at home. So a good sign for 104 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 2: the Ravens, and then you kind of look at this. 105 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 2: The Ravens have played six teams this season who are 106 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 2: three games above five hundred or greater. They are six 107 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 2: and oh straight up, six and oh against the spread, 108 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 2: outscoring them two hundred and twenty one to sixty four. 109 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: When the Ravens have gone up against the best, they've 110 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 2: been unreal. And now you've got the grim Reaper on 111 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 2: the other side in Mahomes as a dog in your stadium. 112 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 2: So this is the ultimate one, their first AFC Championship 113 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 2: game at home. All right, Now, before we go to 114 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 2: the NFC, let's do Casey Buffalo, so we can just 115 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 2: talk about the game for a second. This was the 116 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 2: billing the top show, and it really lived up. So 117 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 2: let's start pregame here, Chiefs plus two and a half. 118 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: They end up closing with forty five percent of the tickets. 119 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 2: It is the fourth time in Mahomes' career he was 120 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 2: minority tickets and an underdog, and he's now three and 121 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 2: one in those games. So don't doubt Mahomes. 122 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: Don't underestimate this guy. 123 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 2: Kelsey ends up breaking his scoreless streak seven games, tied 124 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 2: for the longest of his career, and of course his 125 00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 2: brother Jason, with the absolute best reaction in the entire world. 126 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 2: Seems like he's either enjoying retirement or enjoying contemplation for retirement. 127 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 2: They're the brothers overall. When you look at the end 128 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 2: of this game, from Hamlin's failed punt to Hardman's fumble 129 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: touchback to diggs dropped eighty yard bomb, to Josh Allen 130 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 2: playing hero ball with the fourth down run and Kincaid 131 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 2: saving it with a tip, and then the fourth down 132 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: call in midfield with Shakir. It was a wild, wild 133 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 2: end to this one. And that doesn't even talk about 134 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 2: the fact that we probably should have had either a 135 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 2: overtime or be a Mahomes' last second drive to try 136 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 2: to win them the game. But of course Tyler Bass 137 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:48,679 Speaker 2: missus wide right, wide right from forty four yards after 138 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 2: of course Scott Norwood wide right from forty seven. I 139 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: will say there was a minute forty seven seconds left 140 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 2: on the clock. I'm sorry Bill's fans, but there it is. 141 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 2: Mahomes goes to his six straight conference championship game. He's 142 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 2: been to the conference championship game in every single season 143 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 2: he has been the starter. Josh Allen Owen three versus 144 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 2: the Chiefs and the playoffs three to one during the 145 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 2: regular season. Josh, I'm so sorry, and the stat probably 146 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 2: Bills fans really don't want to hear first team to 147 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 2: be eliminated by the same team three three times in 148 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: a four year span since the Niners against the Packers 149 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: in the nineties. That's from ESPN Stats and Info. 150 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, Matt. 151 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 2: Just an absolute nightmare for anyone with Bills tickets. I 152 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 2: know people out there from thirty to one to fifty 153 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 2: to one, just brutal. You definitely wanted the final possession, 154 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 2: you wanted the opportunity, but this game was more back 155 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,119 Speaker 2: and forth than I think I even could have imagined, 156 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 2: and it was more entertaining than I could have imagined. 157 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 2: So I had the Bills could have been better, but 158 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 2: that's the result. The one thing moving forward that you 159 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 2: definitely need to pay attention to is the injury to 160 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 2: Thuny on the Chiefs side on the guard so pectoral injury, 161 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 2: and his stats have been absolutely unreal. He had thirteen 162 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 2: pass rush matchups against Ed Oliver, who's been an absolute 163 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 2: star this year, allowed zero pressures tonight, so he was 164 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 2: ridiculous and now an injury so EMRII coming on Monday. 165 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 2: Definitely something that needs to be paid attention to. Now 166 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 2: I think it's worth talking about the line for a second. 167 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 2: So Buffalo closes minus two and a half at home 168 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,599 Speaker 2: against the Chiefs. The Ravens now slated about three to 169 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 2: three and a half, so power ranked about a half 170 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 2: point to a full point better. Again, I think the 171 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 2: Ravens Act three is the right price if you can 172 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 2: get two and a half chef's kiss. But again, I'm 173 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 2: gonna fade Mahomes at you at my own peril. I 174 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 2: just did it and lost. But here I am again 175 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 2: maybe the dumb call. But in terms of the Chiefs 176 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 2: calling card, second half unders have been ridiculous, so seventeen 177 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 2: and two this year, second half unders, fourth quarter unders 178 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 2: eighteen and one with them outscoring the Bills seven to 179 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: nothing in the fourth quarter tonight, just absolutely stupid. And 180 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 2: then a few more Mahomes numbers before we dig more 181 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 2: into this this week. So Mahomes now eight and two 182 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 2: in the playoffs when trailing by seven plus points. His 183 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 2: only losses to Tom Brady twice, and if you just 184 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: think about it, zero to two versus Brady for Mahomes 185 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 2: and one in one versus bro He's twelve to zero 186 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 2: versus all other quarterbacks. He's just ended so many different 187 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 2: runs and now he's in the way of Lamar heading 188 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl, and this is probably the last 189 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 2: one for now. But he opened plus three and a 190 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 2: half against the Ravens in this AFC Championship game. He's 191 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 2: actually only done that twice in his career before this week. 192 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 2: Twenty eighteen regular season in New England, opens plus three 193 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 2: and a half, closes plus four, loses forty three forty 194 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 2: and then also in twenty eighteen, his third career start 195 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh, opens plus five, closes plus four and a half, 196 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 2: and ends up beating the Steelers forty two thirty seven. 197 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 3: This podcast is probably presented by Bett MGM. Use bonus 198 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 3: code action when signing up to get one hundred and 199 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 3: fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet five 200 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 3: dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 201 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:35,119 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 202 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 3: Terms of conditions apply must be twenty one hour older 203 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 3: gambling problem called what a hundred Gambler? 204 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 2: Okay, time for the NFC. Now, let's start with Packers 205 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 2: at forty nine ers. So the forty nine ers actually 206 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 2: end up closing as ten and a half point favorites 207 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 2: with some late action in this one and the final 208 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 2: score San Francisco twenty four, green Bay twenty one. The 209 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 2: total closes at fifth and a half, so the game 210 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: ends up going under. But the real story in this one, 211 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 2: at least starting from Green Bay's point of view, is 212 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 2: kind of Jordan Love's last interception, just an awful force 213 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 2: all together, throwing across his body and for anyone who 214 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 2: knows their NFL history, seemed a little far of esque, 215 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 2: So just a little familiar there, But really for Love 216 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 2: one interception his previous nine games entering Saturday through two 217 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 2: for the fourth time this year, so it's also not infrequent. 218 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 2: He just had a really great run in the second 219 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 2: half of the season. And listen when you look at 220 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 2: the box score, just a very very tight game all around. 221 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 2: Green Bay had this one kind of in the bag. 222 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 2: The real key were the two turnovers. San Francisco had 223 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 2: six penalties to only green Bay's one. Green Bay played 224 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 2: a great, great game. They really should have came away 225 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 2: with this one, easy cover, right call all together. San 226 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 2: Francisco definitely not in a position to be laying ten 227 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 2: points in this one. Just a very very tight matchup 228 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 2: all around. From green Bay point of view, was in 229 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 2: the first seven seed to win a game in the playoffs, 230 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 2: they were oh in seven and green Bay covered four 231 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 2: in a road and the year covered their last six 232 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 2: as an underdog, so they did better as great geez. 233 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 2: Now from San Francisco's point of view, the stat that 234 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,319 Speaker 2: everyone was looking at Under Kyle Shanahan, the forty nine 235 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 2: ers are now eight and thirty six straight up and 236 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 2: five and thirty nine against the spread when trailing entering 237 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. With the win, they are now one 238 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 2: in four straight up this year and oh to five 239 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 2: against the spread when that's the case, So that's going 240 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 2: to continue being a storyline, especially if it's a tight 241 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 2: one against Detroit and Shanahan he did find a way, 242 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 2: so he is now five and zero straight up as 243 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 2: a favorite and at home in the playoffs four and 244 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 2: one ats in both of those spots, so that's probably 245 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 2: the way I would tackle his Green Bay San Francisco game. 246 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 2: Purdy didn't play great until the final drive where he 247 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 2: was kind of nails. So if you want to look 248 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 2: at the negative, you can probably find something there. And 249 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: for the positive, you know, he was kind of clutch 250 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 2: in the end and did lead the drive, so can't 251 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 2: be too negative. So good now from the matchups point 252 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 2: of view, So San Francisco hasn't faced the Lions since 253 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 2: Week one of twenty twenty one. It was Jimmy Garoppolo 254 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 2: versus Jared Goff in Detroit and it was actually Goff's 255 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 2: first start for the Lions. And that year for Detroit 256 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: was just terrible. They started the year with eight straight losses. 257 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 2: They were ten to one in their first eleven games. 258 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: Just obviously a completely different Lions team. Now, I'm just 259 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 2: gonna say this now because history means nothing about current matchups, 260 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 2: but it is interesting to hear San Francisco's face Detroit 261 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 2: twenty one times. In the last forty years. San Francisco 262 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 2: is eighteen and three straight up. They've won thirteen straight 263 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 2: home games against the Lions. The last Detroit quarterback to 264 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 2: win in San Francisco was a guy by the name 265 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 2: of Joe Reid, who beat Steve Spurr in nineteen seventy five. 266 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 2: So it has been a while for this Detroit team, 267 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 2: but just another hill to climb time now looking at 268 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 2: the actual quarterbacks in the matchup for a second party 269 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 2: enters this game fifteen to ten against the spread in 270 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 2: his career. Now, that is seven and one ATS as 271 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 2: a favorite of three and a half or less or 272 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 2: an underdog, and eight and nine ATS as a favorite 273 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: of four or more and the Lions seven point underdogs 274 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 2: in this game. Interesting to note, nonetheless, when San Francisco 275 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 2: has to be laying that many points as the preemptive 276 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 2: favorite in this one, and San Francisco hasn't really been 277 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 2: covering much lately. They've lost two straight against the spread 278 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 2: entering the conference championship. They've lost six straight against the 279 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 2: spread at home entering this one. The other big stories 280 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 2: gotta be Deebo Samuel Kyle Shanahan immediately after the game 281 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 2: said he didn't have an update. There was really two injuries. 282 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 2: There was a head injury which he came back from, 283 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 2: and then it's the shoulder injury, which we're really worried 284 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 2: about now. This was similar to a shoulder injury he 285 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 2: suffered against the Browns Learnear, which he missed two games. 286 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: But we don't know if it's the same or the 287 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 2: circumstances around us. So this is something that you just 288 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 2: need to monitor as the week goes, as we get 289 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 2: more information. I'll just give you a few facts about 290 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 2: kind of what Debo means to San Francisco and the data. 291 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 2: So the forty nine Ers are one in four straight 292 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 2: up in their last five games when Deebo gets two 293 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 2: targets or fewer, obviously their win coming against Green Bay. 294 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 2: Now think about this, Deebo leads San Francisco in targets 295 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 2: and receptions this season when they are leading, so he's 296 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 2: basically one of the engines that helps them keeps leads. 297 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 2: And great stat from Matt Jacob on Twitter. So here's 298 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 2: forty nine Ers results in games that Deebo Samuel started 299 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 2: and finished twelve and one straight up ten and three ats. 300 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 2: When Deebo misses or starts and doesn't finish one in 301 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 2: four straight up zero to five ats, he just matters 302 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 2: to this team. And you could even see it at 303 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 2: the end of the Green Bay game. Purty figured it out, 304 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 2: but man, they could really they really need him. 305 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 1: Samuel is everything. Okay. 306 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 2: Finally, let's wrap it up with Tampa Bay and Detroit. 307 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 2: The Lions win the game thirty one twenty three. The 308 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 2: game goes over the total and the Lions end up 309 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 2: covering the six six and a half points spread, basically 310 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 2: because Baker Mayfield doesn't end up converting the two point 311 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 2: conversion at the end of the game when they score 312 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 2: the late touchdown which might have been a pass interference 313 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 2: maybe not. Didn't really look like he turned around, but 314 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 2: different opinions there. Overall, Tampa Bay, the story here was 315 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 2: probably the long shot ticket after Houston loses earlier Tampa 316 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 2: Bay at one hundred to one, kind of the last 317 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 2: long shot left here, and Detroit wins the game, so 318 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,560 Speaker 2: ticket doesn't end up coming through, which usually the case. 319 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: But let's look at the game itself. So Bag interception 320 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 2: at the at least the first one initially not his 321 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 2: fault right off hands of I believe it was Evans 322 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 2: who had a catching problem Milier in the game, and 323 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 2: then Baker's interception at the end of the game that 324 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 2: sealed it. Definitely his fault, pressure in his face, great 325 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 2: play by the defender, So I think two different players there, 326 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 2: But you really can't hurt Baker at all for this season. 327 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 2: Just a great year overall. They end up nine and 328 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 2: four ats as underdogs. They end up eight and two 329 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 2: ats on the road. Baker himself had played well in 330 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 2: the playoffs right, two in one, straight up, three and 331 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 2: oh ats entering this season, So to me, this isn't 332 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 2: the story about anything negative on Baker's point of view. 333 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: I think, if anything, he made himself look better this year. 334 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 2: Great job there. I think the only other thing from 335 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: this game worth talking about is probably the Detroit challenge 336 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:56,640 Speaker 2: when Baker's calf was down. Yeah, probably something Dan probably 337 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 2: would have wanted to challenge there. Didn't end up mattering, 338 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 2: but yeah, definitely frustrating at the time. How about this one, 339 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 2: So Todd Bowles eighteen and forty three now straight up 340 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 2: in his career as an underdog a little bit under 341 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 2: thirty percent. Baker has six of those eighteen wins, or 342 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 2: thirty three percent of them. So Bowls has been terrible 343 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 2: as a dog. Baker having an incredible season. The combo together, 344 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 2: but that is the situation with Tampa Bay now Detroit. 345 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 2: I put out a stat earlier today that this was 346 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 2: really the ultimate Lions game. We had really never seen 347 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,399 Speaker 2: them in a position where they were favored by this much, 348 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 2: where we really expected them to perform. In the last 349 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 2: forty years, the Lions were favored by six points or 350 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 2: more versus a team above five hundred just four times. 351 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 2: They were zero and four straight up in those games, 352 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 2: with the last game coming all the way back in 353 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 2: twenty twelve. It had really been a minute and they 354 00:19:56,080 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 2: played really well. Golf played well, the offense played good. 355 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 2: The defense I think had their times. They had some 356 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 2: good pressure. Aiden Hutchinson got some sacks. He's been great 357 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 2: the last few games. But here's the one issue. It's 358 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 2: the pass game with Detroit. So Baker goes for three 359 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 2: forty nine and three touchdowns while Evans puts up eight 360 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 2: for one, seven in a touchdown. I don't want to 361 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 2: just run through numbers here on this pot, especially since 362 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 2: it's just me getting them inmvos. But they've they've been 363 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 2: absolutely like torched Mullins put on almost four hundred and 364 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 2: two games. Between Jefferson, Lamb, Puka and Evans, it's been 365 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 2: you know, maybe seven hundred yards in five games, if 366 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 2: not more so next week when they faced the forty 367 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 2: nine ers and if Debo's back, maybe it's an EU game, 368 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 2: but they've just been absolutely torched downfield, So definitely something 369 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 2: to note for the future there. Now, from Goff's point 370 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 2: of view, he's faced the forty nine Ers nine times 371 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 2: in his career. He's lost five straight. He's three and 372 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 2: six against them, with only one of those games coming 373 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 2: with the Lions, the loss in twenty twenty one. But 374 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,959 Speaker 2: the stat that kind was interesting to me. GoF has 375 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: faced Shanahan in San Francisco four times. He's actually averaging 376 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: thirty two points per game, putting up thirty in three games, 377 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 2: so not awful. And you know, we've talked about goth 378 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 2: outdoors I feel like forever, but he's played eleven games 379 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 2: outdoors on the road with the Lions five to five 380 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 2: and one straight up, six and five against the spread. 381 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,959 Speaker 2: It's actually five and one straight up and ats at 382 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 2: his last six, which, you know, the bad performance against Baltimore, 383 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 2: But hasn't all been bad for Goff. In ten games 384 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 2: at home this year, he has a QBR of about 385 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 2: sixty four. He has eight point one yards per attempt, 386 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 2: twenty two touchdowns, six picks. Eight games on the road 387 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 2: fifty seven QBR, so that's down about seven points seven 388 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 2: point one yards per attempt, that's down a full yard 389 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 2: and just eleven touchdowns and six picks, so same number 390 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 2: of interceptions but eleven fewer touchdowns. It's obviously something that 391 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 2: is noted all around, and even wind is noted more 392 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 2: when Gof's road starts. But it doesn't look like it's 393 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 2: going to be that windy in San Francisco next week, 394 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 2: so probably not the craziest storyline there. But just to 395 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 2: get these numbers out of the way, goff last three 396 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 2: seasons twenty six and nine against the spread indoors, just 397 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 2: eight and seven against the spread outdoors, much smaller sample, 398 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 2: but he has been absolutely dominant in the dome on 399 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 2: the surface, so different quarterback all around. It's just I 400 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 2: feel better somewhere indoors. That'll do it for the recap, 401 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 2: But before we get out of here, let's check in 402 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 2: with Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things fared 403 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 2: for the books and the better is in Las Vegas? 404 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 3: All right? 405 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: Great to be back on the Action Network podcast. Let's 406 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: recap the weekend that was a little bit in these 407 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: divisional round games and also take a look ahead to 408 00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: the conference championship games. Odds obviously already on the board 409 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 1: and getting some attention. It was kind of a back 410 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,719 Speaker 1: and forth between the betters and the bookmakers. There were 411 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: some outcomes that worked well in favor of the betters, 412 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: some ount comes that certainly worked well in favor of 413 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: the bookmakers. The only real universal was the Saturday night 414 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,880 Speaker 1: Divisional round game between the Packers and the forty nine Ers. 415 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: Most of the odds makers I spoke with, including those 416 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 1: at bet MGM, really wanted a forty nine Ers win 417 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 1: and a Green Bay Packers cover, and that is exactly 418 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,919 Speaker 1: what they got with a three point forty nine Ers victory. 419 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 1: So that was pretty much universally applauded by the sports books. 420 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: So obviously that means it was a decision to win 421 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: against the public betting masses back and forth a little bit. 422 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: On the Ravens game, there was a lot of public 423 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 1: play on the Texans Ravens ultimately win and cover easily, 424 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 1: which doesn't work well for the public on straight bets necessarily. However, 425 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: the Ravens were the favorite. The Niners were the favorite 426 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: in the early game Sunday, the Lions were the favorite, 427 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: and then tonight at Sunday night, as I speak to. 428 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 3: You, the Bills and the Chiefs. 429 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: Those are two very public teams both, so line parlays 430 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 1: were running solidly well into Sunday night, and those money 431 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: line parlays and such were split on Sunday night between 432 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: the Bills and the Chiefs. So that kind of made 433 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: it more of a wash for some books and even 434 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: a loser for some books, and a winner for the 435 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: public if you played the money line parlays and you 436 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: ran those money line parlays to the Chiefs, or if 437 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: you had teaser play running to the Chiefs, which it 438 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 1: sounds like a lot of people, added six points to 439 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and obviously, with the Chiefs winning out right, 440 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 1: that got there pretty easily. So again a little bit 441 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: of a mixed bag. But that Niners game universally applauded 442 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,239 Speaker 1: by the oddsmakers, including one who told me forty nine 443 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: ers by three was a really good score. He said, 444 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: he said, that game fell absolutely perfect. They bet me 445 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: Green Bay on the money line, they bet me straight 446 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: bets and teasers on the forty nine ers, and really 447 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 1: it just worked out well for the books. Now, looking 448 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:52,160 Speaker 1: ahead to the conference, championship games. You got the Ravens 449 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: hosting the Chiefs in the AFC, and then in the 450 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 1: second game next Sunday, you've got the Niners hosting the Lines. 451 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,439 Speaker 1: First off, these two matchups are going to draw a ton, 452 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: ton ton of money. These are four teams that are 453 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 1: going to be very public teams, and at least two 454 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: of them for sure, of the forty nine Ers and 455 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,920 Speaker 1: the Lions, and not so much the Ravens and the Chiefs. 456 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,440 Speaker 1: Really the book is going to be rooting for the 457 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,679 Speaker 1: Ravens and the Chiefs either of those teams in the 458 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Forty nine Ers and the Lions are liabilities 459 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: for multiple books, including for Benham Jam in the Super 460 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 1: Bowl futures markets. So Benham Jam will at least get 461 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,679 Speaker 1: rid of one of those two teams next week in 462 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,160 Speaker 1: a game that, again I suggest, will be very heavily bet. 463 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,679 Speaker 1: But we're going to start with the first game, Ravens Chiefs. 464 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 1: I talked to an oddsmaker on this Sunday evening about 465 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 1: that game. Baltimore opens minus three and a half even 466 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 1: no movement so far, and what the oddsmaker told me 467 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 1: was the Ravens are power rated higher than case and 468 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: they're at home. And he said further, Kansas City's offense 469 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 1: hasn't put it together against a healthy defense all year. 470 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 1: And in addition, he said, Baltimore is just smoked every 471 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: good team it's played this season, and that is generally speaking, 472 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: a fairly true statement. And obviously the Ravens look great 473 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 1: in the second half against the Texas in the Divisional round. 474 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 1: Now moving along to the late kick on Sunday, Lions 475 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,959 Speaker 1: at forty nine ers. Forty nine ers opened minus seven 476 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,120 Speaker 1: and are down a half a point tonight. A few 477 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 1: you know, shortly after it over, about seventy five minutes 478 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: after it over, went down to six and a half. 479 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: With the odds Baker I spoke with, and what he 480 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 1: said is we didn't want to open south of seven 481 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 1: if we could avoid it, so they didn't. 482 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 2: He said, we'll need Detroit for sure. 483 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll get some wise guy action on Detroit 484 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: plus seven, but we still will likely be overwhelmed with 485 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: San Francisco money by the time we get to kick 486 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: off late Sunday afternoon here Pacific time and Sunday evening 487 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: on the East coast. And indeed, it was early sharp 488 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 1: money on the lines plus seven that knock the Niners 489 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: from minus seven down to minus six and a half. 490 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: So there's a little bit of a recap of the 491 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,640 Speaker 1: weekend and a look ahead to two really compelling conference 492 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: championship games. Thanks a lot for having me on. We'll 493 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: see you next week with the Super Bowl matchup on 494 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: the table. 495 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,239 Speaker 2: Thanks Patrick, and thanks to everyone else for tuning in. 496 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 2: Stay tuned for more NFL betting content for Championship Weekend 497 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 2: right here on the Action Network podcast presented by Bett MGM. 498 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 499 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 500 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 501 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler