Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet.
Speaker 2: We are part of the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 1: This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
Speaker 1: makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmlman, I
Speaker 1: am joined as always buying, my co host, my companion
Speaker 1: Mike Caadre, my BFF, professional Better, Simon Hunter, Ella.
Speaker 2: Simn Chat.
Speaker 3: Are we doing?
Speaker 2: Felt extra excited to introduce you today.
Speaker 3: Fired up Week eleven?
Speaker 2: Week eleven. That doesn't fire me up. That just makes
Speaker 2: me sad.
Speaker 1: It makes me sad that we're at week eleven, that
Speaker 1: we're in double digit weeks, that we're staring down the
Speaker 1: barrel of the end of the season.
Speaker 2: That just bums me out because I love football. This
Speaker 2: is our week eleven episode.
Speaker 1: We're going to narrow down the options to get to
Speaker 1: our final five. We're inching our way closer. Remember subscribe
Speaker 1: to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. But first,
Speaker 1: every single week, Simon, the Wise guys listen to the show,
Speaker 1: and every single week they've got opinions about what we are.
Speaker 2: Saying, where we are leaning.
Speaker 1: They like to tell us what they think about everything
Speaker 1: we discuss.
Speaker 2: So let's get right to it. It's time for sharp call.
Speaker 4: I have to answer this boat, all right, rain range
Speaker 4: telephone range.
Speaker 2: Somebody said, maybe what you do?
Speaker 3: Man, It's been a crazy week chat.
Speaker 5: Honestly, a lot of calls about the different matchups and
Speaker 5: obviously the conversation we had, and the biggest one I
Speaker 5: got was our love for the Seattle. We're way off.
Speaker 5: Got I get on the RAM. So that's deffin again.
Speaker 5: We're gonna have to talk about.
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm so glad.
Speaker 1: I'm so glad because I was having a change of
Speaker 1: heart yesterday and I like it when everything lines up
Speaker 1: for us.
Speaker 5: Yeah, So definitely, definitely a game we're gonna to talk
Speaker 5: about Rams. Another game we might be missing on, or
Speaker 5: just I personally might be missing on Panthers. Tons of
Speaker 5: pros love the Panthers there, so maybe I can just
Speaker 5: avoid that game another game.
Speaker 3: Maybe I'll just avoid I really like the Bucks.
Speaker 5: Tons of pros I've talked tough, really liked the Bills,
Speaker 5: and they have some good arguments about why they like
Speaker 5: that spot. But maybe we'll we'll go against them together chat.
Speaker 5: I don't know, we'll see with that game. But a
Speaker 5: lot of back and forth about just the pros loving
Speaker 5: the bills there, and that's what's holding that number because
Speaker 5: I thought this number before, By this show today, it's
Speaker 5: still five and a half. So love to talk about
Speaker 5: that one. Games that I think we got a lot
Speaker 5: of love and agreeance on our Cleveland game.
Speaker 3: I mean that game. We could have just walked into
Speaker 3: it as well. I know that full well.
Speaker 5: We didn't know Lamar had a bad knee, so we
Speaker 5: took a number.
Speaker 3: Took a spot. Hopefully you know Lamar is all right?
Speaker 5: What am I then missing this game for me chat though?
Speaker 5: And we have an eight and a half because this
Speaker 5: would definitely drop four and a half five or maybe
Speaker 5: even three and a half. Fee is out tons of
Speaker 5: love for that one Denver as well. It's a professional love.
Speaker 5: Uh not a shaka there. Another game, actually, I was
Speaker 5: pretty shocked. I thought it was going to be a
Speaker 5: tons and tons of Eagles love. That Lin's Eagles game
Speaker 5: is pretty split. I know some pros on both sides.
Speaker 5: So that number has touched three at a couple of places
Speaker 5: and then immediately got hit back to two and a half.
Speaker 5: So a game I thought it would be all pros
Speaker 5: and all public really split, right, public would be all
Speaker 5: over the lines. Pros would be on Eagles. It's not
Speaker 5: really looking like that that way. So interesting game and
Speaker 5: another game I'm kind of left on my low some chat.
Speaker 5: I thought the pros would be all over this Raiders game.
Speaker 5: It just might be me and three other guys. I
Speaker 5: don't think they trust this Raiders team too much love
Speaker 5: for that one. Maybe it's just the Monday game. But
Speaker 5: not too many opinions either way on that one, honestly, so,
Speaker 5: I've had a couple ask about that. Why do I
Speaker 5: love it so much? It really is just about the
Speaker 5: number and that Dallas team. But I get why people
Speaker 5: are so weary in this matchup.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into it.
Speaker 1: Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one
Speaker 1: has mentioned. The line's been generally holding at five and
Speaker 1: a half bumped down five at hard Rock bet, but
Speaker 1: I'm seeing other places where the juice is indicating it's
Speaker 1: going to go up to six. I'm honestly surprised and
Speaker 1: a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively
Speaker 1: moving to five like we're seeing at hard Rock. Obviously,
Speaker 1: I bet into it at five and a half. To me,
Speaker 1: it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals.
Speaker 1: And I know everyone's going to say everything they want
Speaker 1: to about the Steelers.
Speaker 2: Could be a bounce back spot. Aaron Rodgers played terrible.
Speaker 1: Maybe the line's deflated a little bit because of how
Speaker 1: bad the Steelers did against the Chargers. Maybe Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: and Pat Fryarmouth and Jalen Warren can get right against
Speaker 1: a terrible, terrible, terrible Bengals defense. We know how bad
Speaker 1: the Bengals defense is. We've also seen how good the
Speaker 1: Bengals offense can be, especially against a suspect defense, and
Speaker 1: right now the Steelers secondary is sus.
Speaker 2: Like it's just terrible.
Speaker 1: How are they going to defend against an exceptional group
Speaker 1: of receivers and Joe Flacco, who he's ageless.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we were both a little weird this one,
Speaker 3: and we just understand the line.
Speaker 5: That's another game. We just thought it would make more
Speaker 5: sense at three three and a half. Like we said,
Speaker 5: it was just two weeks ago. This Bengals team upset
Speaker 5: and beat the Steelers team. And Steelers are banged up
Speaker 5: like they're not healthy. They have a bunch of injuries
Speaker 5: in a bunch of key positions as well.
Speaker 3: Bengals like you just had coming off of bye week.
Speaker 5: I mean, I thought it was funny Joe Burrow who's
Speaker 5: rushing back, which is really impressive for him, but that's
Speaker 5: not going to fix any of their issues. Like this
Speaker 5: Bengals team, they literally have been scoring more points, averaging
Speaker 5: more points with Flacco at the helm than than Joe.
Speaker 5: It doesn't matter. He's just he's not to fix this
Speaker 5: this defense.
Speaker 3: It's just a trocia.
Speaker 5: So I agree with you. The number makes sense. You know,
Speaker 5: we'll grab it and hope for a back door. Maybe
Speaker 5: Joe will have the lead and the back door will
Speaker 5: come from Rogers and we still have a key number
Speaker 5: above three and that won't matter for us.
Speaker 3: But I thought it was interesting looking at Zach Taylor
Speaker 3: the head coach.
Speaker 5: What can we take away from him and these type
Speaker 5: of situations after a bye week? Is he a good coach?
Speaker 5: Does you get guys prepared? He is one and four
Speaker 5: against the spread bag.
Speaker 2: I don't expect anything. Taylor.
Speaker 3: I mean, Zach Taylor man just.
Speaker 5: Who some people it's crazy, So he's I mean, I
Speaker 5: can't blame him. The offense has been good with Flacco
Speaker 5: a lot of stuff, but apparently it's just been all
Speaker 5: matchup base. So the last time they played, Joe Flacca
Speaker 5: made fun of the Spitfik team. He said he'd even
Speaker 5: know the bank those offense. They were just running the
Speaker 5: same zone scheme over and over again. So I'm looking
Speaker 5: for reasons to avoid it because I just don't this
Speaker 5: number feels sofficient to me. I'm gonna join you. I'm
Speaker 5: gonna bet the I'm gonna bet the Bengals. But I
Speaker 5: have not made this one of my bigger best this week.
Speaker 3: I just I don't know. Something just seems awful.
Speaker 5: I just can't believe we're getting two extra free points
Speaker 5: here on this Bengals teams. He said, Steelers defense is
Speaker 5: just as bad, just as bad as the Spangles defense.
Speaker 3: So really weird line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a very strange line. Also, not that it
Speaker 1: matters one where the other. Trey Hendrickson doubtful to play
Speaker 1: this week with that injured hip, even after the bye week.
Speaker 1: When you say that about Zach Taylor, I'm just like,
Speaker 1: I don't care like he's.
Speaker 3: So he just knows altrocious he is. He comes out
Speaker 3: of a bye week, He's won and four against divisional opponents.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but he's also atrocious win they don't have a
Speaker 1: buy Like, I'm not betting on Zach Taylor in this.
Speaker 3: Game, even more so.
Speaker 5: Straight up as a dog in the spot as an
Speaker 5: underdog losing it by combined score of eighty five to
Speaker 5: twenty three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but here's the thing. Honestly, I'm just.
Speaker 3: Trying to make it so we're protecting you. I don't
Speaker 3: know for to make it one of our five, but
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 2: Know that we're going to make it one of our
Speaker 2: five either.
Speaker 1: But Zach Taylor just never entered the equation for me
Speaker 1: in this is similar to what that Mike Tomlin didn't
Speaker 1: enter the equation even though you know, historically we'd want
Speaker 1: to fade Mike Tomlin as a relatively big favorite at
Speaker 1: home in the division that that has tended to be
Speaker 1: where he hasn't coached as well, right and where the
Speaker 1: team has had a little bit of a letdown and
Speaker 1: they played down to the level of their opponent.
Speaker 3: This is entirely It was actually good here for Tomlin.
Speaker 5: Like historically, him playing a divisional opponent after a bad
Speaker 5: loss on the road coming home as a favorite, he
Speaker 5: actually does pretty well.
Speaker 3: But I agree with you. I just do not like Ben.
Speaker 3: Tomlin is a big favorite.
Speaker 4: Guys that played for me. They can tell you. One
Speaker 4: of my sayings I got a lot of sayings is
Speaker 4: don't seek comfort. I realized if you're going to have
Speaker 4: special outcomes, that you got to be comfortable. Being uncomfortable
Speaker 4: appreciating my resume is seeking comfort.
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco was playing so well.
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow's coming back early because he's worried about his job.
Speaker 2: That's what's going on here. And I think we both know.
Speaker 5: That's another Flacco stat He's nine to four in his
Speaker 5: career against his president underdog against Tomlin. So he always
Speaker 5: performs well against Tom and Donlin even said it so much.
Speaker 3: There was the boogeyman.
Speaker 5: He could not believe he had to face this guy
Speaker 5: again and getting him traded in his own division.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that includes when they played against each other in
Speaker 1: pee wee football, because they're basically the.
Speaker 2: Same age.
Speaker 1: Houston at Tennessee Simon, we said we were waiting until
Speaker 1: this number got below seven. It took him minute, but
Speaker 1: at lanted below seven yesterday Wednesday afternoon, middle of the afternoon,
Speaker 1: and it's pretty much six and a half painted across
Speaker 1: the board minus one ten. No official word on CJ,
Speaker 1: but he did not practice. The Texans do not expect
Speaker 1: him to play this weekend, so this number was moving
Speaker 1: based on Davis Mills.
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Simmons is hopeful he will be back.
Speaker 1: I did bet the Texans at minus six and a
Speaker 1: half because I think they might only have to score
Speaker 1: one touchdown to cover this number. The defense is so
Speaker 1: good that offense is so bad. There's there's virtually no
Speaker 1: evidence that this offense can get the ball in the
Speaker 1: end zone often enough against this defense to to cover
Speaker 1: less than a touchdown.
Speaker 3: To me, yeah, I'm on it as well.
Speaker 5: It's the only polems I have for this one is
Speaker 5: it's tons of tons of pros are on this Titans team,
Speaker 5: and of course that's.
Speaker 2: Why it moved. No one's no one in the public
Speaker 2: is betting.
Speaker 5: It came out eating practice on Wednesday or Tuesday, I
Speaker 5: believe because it was concussion.
Speaker 3: I think that's when it moved to six and a half.
Speaker 1: It started moving Tuesday night to six and a half
Speaker 1: because that's when I bet it, and by today it
Speaker 1: was six and a half across the board.
Speaker 5: So, like you know, the fact that it's it's it's
Speaker 5: more likely now that teaches out adds to that, you know,
Speaker 5: you're looking at the early money here and it is
Speaker 5: on Tennessee, so it looks like the public is joining them,
Speaker 5: which makes sense. It's Davis Mills on the road as
Speaker 5: a six and a half point favorite.
Speaker 3: So I get where they're coming from.
Speaker 5: I think we both agree we're taking this position for
Speaker 5: the fact that we trust this defense but.
Speaker 3: Interesting and interesting number movement.
Speaker 5: I don't want to tell people to bet it or
Speaker 5: hammer now because it could drop. If it is official
Speaker 5: CJ is out, maybe this does get the four four
Speaker 5: and a half, like this number.
Speaker 3: Does keep dropping.
Speaker 2: There's no way.
Speaker 5: I know I thought that too, but I just I
Speaker 5: was shocked and moved off to seven once the CJ
Speaker 5: concussion no practice because I was like, I was not
Speaker 5: expecting him to play this week anyway.
Speaker 1: So yeah, but if it was going to move, it
Speaker 1: would have already been. It would have been a much
Speaker 1: more aggressive move in the past twenty four hours from this.
Speaker 3: Is a fair books.
Speaker 5: Because it's gone under the key number now, where like
Speaker 5: they're taking tons and tons of bets and I'm sure
Speaker 5: moneyland parlays and teasers now in this Texans team, but
Speaker 5: they're fine with that position because they're in the back
Speaker 5: of round. I think they're saying, well, we think it's
Speaker 5: probably gonna be Davis Mills. That's why I thought it
Speaker 5: was big. They moved off the seven. So yeah, I'm
Speaker 5: just I'll be patient with this one. We'll see where
Speaker 5: it goes. But like you said, we're both in six
Speaker 5: and a half. It's just the more I think about it,
Speaker 5: it's like the me and Check be forced to watch
Speaker 5: this game and bet on this game. I don't know
Speaker 5: if we're gonna have to make this one of those
Speaker 5: games because I just how much I love the number
Speaker 5: with Davis Mills.
Speaker 1: Well, we're of course going to be watching it. It'll
Speaker 1: be in the multiview.
Speaker 3: There's no there's no chance.
Speaker 5: I'm not like, there's so many good games I.
Speaker 1: Know, But the problem is we have money. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying it's going to be in the contest. I'm just
Speaker 1: saying we have money on it. At this point. I
Speaker 1: know that in the early windows, I got five screens
Speaker 1: I can watch on. I'll watch the five games that
Speaker 1: are in the contest and that we have bets on,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna have it on this game.
Speaker 3: Let's say if I was at home, I'd probably put
Speaker 3: on the iPad. I won't even put on the TV.
Speaker 2: I think this game will probably be on my laptop.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that sounds right.
Speaker 2: We'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 1: I mean, I know I can know for a fact
Speaker 1: Baltimore Cleveland's going to be on there. I know that
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Pittsburgh's going to be on there. So we'll see. Simon,
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers as
Speaker 1: seven point favorites at the New York Giants, because on
Speaker 1: Tuesday we talked about the Packers and you added slightly
Speaker 1: into the Packers. I was wondering why, like we would
Speaker 1: even try to make a decision. We didn't know who
Speaker 1: was going to be quarterback. Now we know, famous Jameis
Speaker 1: Winston is starting for the Giants on Sunday. Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: has been demoted to third string, and Russell Wilson is
Speaker 1: now doing videos on Cameo. He's made three hundred million
Speaker 1: dollars in his career. He's doing videos on cameo. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: at his presconf friends as the number one quarterback as
Speaker 1: QB one, Jameis Winston gave a virtuoso performance, including a
Speaker 1: Broadway musical interlude. Matt Mitchell roll it.
Speaker 3: I'm want fans to know that I'm gonna do my best.
Speaker 3: You know, obviously I'm gonna have.
Speaker 6: Fun, but I'm gonna execute, have a surgical execution, and
Speaker 6: just and just play ball, man, Like this is something
Speaker 6: I've been doing since I've been four years old. Now
Speaker 6: I just get to do it in the greatest city
Speaker 6: in the world. I'm gonna be saying with my son,
Speaker 6: what's the greatest city in the world. Yeah, that's a
Speaker 6: Hamilton reference to now I don't know, and a ten
Speaker 6: year reunion.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, come on him acknowledging Hamilton's ten ten
Speaker 1: year anniversary.
Speaker 2: He's a legend. He's a legend.
Speaker 1: It's like, Jamis is everything you love about betting. You
Speaker 1: and I talk about this all the time. You love
Speaker 1: the roller coaster of betting. I love knowing that I've
Speaker 1: got the win in the first quarter and then relaxing
Speaker 1: the rest of the day. I want to be right.
Speaker 1: I don't want the emotion. You want the emotion. Jamis
Speaker 1: is your type of QB.
Speaker 3: Dude.
Speaker 1: It's like, all the betting, how do you not put
Speaker 1: in a small taste on Jamis. He is the full
Speaker 1: experience on Sunday, the oh no throws, the oh yes throws,
Speaker 1: the holy shit throws, signing Jamis a little taste.
Speaker 2: Come on.
Speaker 5: Yeah, The biggest sin in life is that James is
Speaker 5: not like a top five quarterback in this week. It
Speaker 5: just for he has so much personality we just don't
Speaker 5: get from quarterbacks, right. Most quarterbacks are just robots, which
Speaker 5: they should be right, they're protecting their brand. They don't
Speaker 5: want to say anything that gets put on the board
Speaker 5: and used against.
Speaker 3: Blah blah blah.
Speaker 5: But Jamis is just so free and just not negative
Speaker 5: and just good vibes, like he never says the wrong things,
Speaker 5: even when he's talking crazy. It's it's great, like he
Speaker 5: just you never know where he's gonna go with it.
Speaker 5: So yeah, I I just thought this was a green
Speaker 5: Bay spot. We've talked this year, this green Bay team.
Speaker 5: They're on a historical run right there. I think the
Speaker 5: first team in like twenty years to be zero to
Speaker 5: five as a seven point favorite against the spread. They
Speaker 5: get to cover the season as a seven point favorite.
Speaker 5: So the public's on the Giants. The broser they joning them.
Speaker 5: This is gonna be a huge, huge bet all the teasers,
Speaker 5: all the money line, partly as this Packers team, because
Speaker 5: everyone's like me, They just I can't see the Packers
Speaker 5: the three games in a row. So maybe I'll just
Speaker 5: avoid it now, because like you said, Jamis could either
Speaker 5: lose this game by thirty or win this game.
Speaker 3: Outright if he had such a wild Gay's passing the ball.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, such a wild car.
Speaker 5: I just I don't know if he has a weapons
Speaker 5: chat Like in other places where he's done stuff, he's
Speaker 5: actually had guys on the outside that can make plays.
Speaker 5: He does not have that in this scenario. And he's
Speaker 5: going against a really good defensive front. So I'm still
Speaker 5: I'm still on the Packers.
Speaker 3: But I get it.
Speaker 5: I get you're coming from. You want to go on
Speaker 5: the Giants and it's fun. I just I can't. I
Speaker 5: can't do it.
Speaker 1: I just want to bet as bet put us on Jamis,
Speaker 1: Like he's won us so much money over the years, though,
Speaker 1: and then and then.
Speaker 2: He's lost us so much many over the years.
Speaker 1: Last year we had a pretty good run of like
Speaker 1: betting on Jamis at the right time and betting against
Speaker 1: Jamis at the right time, And this just feels like
Speaker 1: a bet on Jamis and I can't.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of bummed that he stayed in the.
Speaker 1: NFL, because I think he'd be so good as a broadcaster, analyst,
Speaker 1: full time social media influencer, whatever it is. Oh goodness, Simon,
Speaker 1: I'm just this is going to be on the TV
Speaker 1: just to watch Jamis implode or blow up the Packers
Speaker 1: either way. All right, let's talk about Tampa Bay at Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I mentioned this the other day. I think we've underestimated
Speaker 1: how much Bucky Irving means to the Buccaneers because we've
Speaker 1: continued to want to bet on the Buccaneers and have
Speaker 1: bet the Buccaneers, including last week against the Patriots. So
Speaker 1: I looked it up because it's like it just we
Speaker 1: believed so much in Baker ball.
Speaker 2: Have we leaned too much into that.
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers were running the ball thirty eight percent of
Speaker 1: the time with Bucket Irving. Now they're doing just twenty
Speaker 1: five percent of the time, and that impacts everything, Right,
Speaker 1: they have fewer explosive ten plus yard runs, but also
Speaker 1: it just changes the play action dynamic for Baker. It's
Speaker 1: much less effective, and I think that's having an impact
Speaker 1: on the entire game. It's like when you hurt your
Speaker 1: toe and it hits the whole kinetic chain. I think
Speaker 1: that that is really a big issue for them. We
Speaker 1: were wondering why the wise guys might be all over
Speaker 1: the Bucks. I don't know all the reasons, but I
Speaker 1: look at this and it makes a little more sense
Speaker 1: to me right now.
Speaker 5: Honestly, it sounds really simple. But this Bucks team, to me,
Speaker 5: the big difference has been Baker doesn't hasn't scrambled in
Speaker 5: about three weeks now, and if you look back, he
Speaker 5: took a really bad shot in that win against the
Speaker 5: forty nine ers, he hasn't. He didn't have one rushing
Speaker 5: attemp against Detroit, that single rushing attempt against the Saints,
Speaker 5: and same against New Orleans and.
Speaker 3: Remember all those insane wames earlier in the year.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so maybe that's what we're missing here, is he
Speaker 5: sustained an injury. He doesn't want to be taking hits
Speaker 5: like that, scrambling outside the pocket, and it's been a
Speaker 5: difference to their offense. You need that Baker magic for
Speaker 5: it to work for this team. So you know there
Speaker 5: are some stats too. We talked about this would be
Speaker 5: a spot Raffer Josh Allen. They just got embarrassed on
Speaker 5: the road as a huge favorite, and it feels like
Speaker 5: it's a unique spot, right, It's not often Josh Allen
Speaker 5: goes on the road as a favorite and loses well
Speaker 5: by double digits. And when I looked at it, it's
Speaker 5: it's pretty alarming. He's after loss like that. He's six
Speaker 5: and three against the spread, which isn't that drastic, but
Speaker 5: he's covering by eleven points per game in those matchups,
Speaker 5: so he tends to bounce back. Josh Allen these matchups,
Speaker 5: and you know, if they have a game where they
Speaker 5: score sixteen points or less in Josh Allen's career, the
Speaker 5: following game, he's thirteen and six against the spread. So
Speaker 5: we've just seen time and time again he tends to
Speaker 5: bounce back. I had tons of people send me trend
Speaker 5: numbers about Baker because they were agreeing with us about
Speaker 5: our love for Baker. That's why it's like, can we
Speaker 5: still get there? But I'm just alarmed that he has
Speaker 5: not run. That was something that really jumped out to me.
Speaker 5: It's like, is there just something we don't know because
Speaker 5: he's not looked the same since that forty nine ers game,
Speaker 5: and I thought, you know what, that's just football, right,
Speaker 5: you have lows, ups and downs. He's just not I
Speaker 5: thought he'd maybe get right after that bye a week,
Speaker 5: but you saw against New England he didn't really run
Speaker 5: the ball, he didn't use his legs like he usually does. So, yeah,
Speaker 5: they're just those type of things jumped out to me. Obviously.
Speaker 5: If you want to hear some Baker stats as a dog,
Speaker 5: he's fifteen to four or against a spread in his career.
Speaker 5: We know Baker's just he covers as a dog. So
Speaker 5: I don't know what you want to do in this one.
Speaker 5: It's it's a unique spot, right, it's Baker awful loss
Speaker 5: now is a dog on the road again. Another stat
Speaker 5: at him is a dog in the SAX spot seventeen
Speaker 5: and seven against the spread when he's off the loss
Speaker 5: even better last five seasons he's twelve and three.
Speaker 3: This is exactly pow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to bet Baker here. I know I do.
Speaker 2: At five and a half. The numbers in my notes
Speaker 2: are we worried about Baker.
Speaker 5: That's what I'm trying to get us here.
Speaker 1: You're making a good point. I did the research yesterday.
Speaker 1: I think they're a different team, even though without Bucky Irving,
Speaker 1: we're seeing that in the trends. It could be a
Speaker 1: combination of the lack of play action and Baker not
Speaker 1: running the ball because he could be injured. All of
Speaker 1: that seems to be missing from this Buccaneers team right now.
Speaker 1: To me, it's it's not so much a bet on
Speaker 1: the Bills. It's going to be a bet on the
Speaker 1: box and how comfortable can we get on this team.
Speaker 2: It just feels to me like.
Speaker 3: So I can't convince you to back Josh Allen. Here
Speaker 3: you the Josh Allen stats.
Speaker 5: I mean, it just seems like I know, I don't
Speaker 5: trust I just don't trust his Bills team either.
Speaker 3: That's my issue. It's tough.
Speaker 2: This defense is just it's not very good.
Speaker 5: I know, but if Baker's not Baker, can you really
Speaker 5: take advantage of an attack him. So it's a hard
Speaker 5: game for me where it's like I wanted to be
Speaker 5: on the Bucks. I thought I was going to be
Speaker 5: on the book Sunday though I was me on Tuesday,
Speaker 5: and I just I have looked into it and I
Speaker 5: agree it's there's something missing with this book.
Speaker 3: See, I really do think it's that Russian ability of Baker.
Speaker 1: It's one of those weird games. Yeah, it's one of
Speaker 1: those weird games where we this would be a smash
Speaker 1: smart spot for us on a team that we almost
Speaker 1: always love to bet on a quarterback. We always love
Speaker 1: to bet. I don't know that we know enough yet.
Speaker 1: I think we need to keep looking into it. I
Speaker 1: haven't bet this game at all. I've tried to be patient.
Speaker 5: I'm not trying to work people, honestly is what I do.
Speaker 5: And I'm like, I can't get anything. I can't get
Speaker 5: anything about if he's had an injury, if he's been
Speaker 5: resting an injury, because they haven't put anything on the injury
Speaker 5: port either, so nothing's come out.
Speaker 3: So I don't know.
Speaker 5: But I just when someone brought that up, I looked
Speaker 5: at it, go, oh my god, I've not even noticed that.
Speaker 5: I have not noticed because you get sacked so much.
Speaker 5: In my mind, I thought he's been running and scrambling,
Speaker 5: but he has and he hasn't gained a yard in
Speaker 5: three games.
Speaker 2: That's that's so weird.
Speaker 1: And you know now that you think about it, Like,
Speaker 1: especially against the Patriots, there were a couple of times
Speaker 1: where the pocket just cratered that would have been a
Speaker 1: Baker escapes and he didn't. It just he sort of
Speaker 1: just collapsed in the pocket.
Speaker 2: That's interesting.
Speaker 1: We got to keep talking about this one. I don't
Speaker 1: think we can commit to it one way or the
Speaker 1: other yet. I want to bring up.
Speaker 2: The Chargers and the Jags.
Speaker 1: We talked about the Jags the other day at plus
Speaker 1: three at hard Rockets moved down to two and a half,
Speaker 1: so we're seeing professionals come in on the Jags. I
Speaker 1: really left it in only because isn't this our week
Speaker 1: to fade the Chargers?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: We'd want to say, oh my god, the Chargers looked
Speaker 1: great last week, let's bet them, But then we know
Speaker 1: we really should fade them. We talked about liking the Jags.
Speaker 1: I just wanted to know from your opinion, are you
Speaker 1: feeling strongly about the Jags. I am not feeling strongly
Speaker 1: about the Jags, but I could understand if you did,
Speaker 1: and I would be persuadable.
Speaker 2: You know why, Simon, you know why I'm agreeable.
Speaker 5: I think we both agree it's just about the number, right,
Speaker 5: Like at the three, I think we both kind of
Speaker 5: like taking the Jags of the dog here. But I
Speaker 5: just maybe maybe it's just the Trevor Lawrence thing. I
Speaker 5: just I hate having money on them and I don't
Speaker 5: trust them.
Speaker 3: So at the three I like it for two and
Speaker 3: a half.
Speaker 5: I'm just there's no way I'm going to make people
Speaker 5: invest money into this game. And the Herbert side, I
Speaker 5: know a couple of pros I taking a position on
Speaker 5: them in this game because they like the match with
Speaker 5: them in the sense that this Jaguars defense just I
Speaker 5: mean went through an absolute ringer the week before. Historically
Speaker 5: these defenses fail the next week. Right, If you have
Speaker 5: a defense that gives a twenty points or more, it's
Speaker 5: never good to follow in the weekend. Even more so,
Speaker 5: you know a team like that, how do they react
Speaker 5: to it? A first year head coach, how does you
Speaker 5: react to giving up twenty nine.
Speaker 3: Points in the fourth quarter of Davis Mills the week before? Chad.
Speaker 5: So, we have a lot of stuff we've been into
Speaker 5: here situationally that I don't love. And when you dive
Speaker 5: into all the trends and anything like that, it's historically
Speaker 5: a terrible spot for Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: And what isn't what isn't a terrible spot right.
Speaker 5: Because he just his whole career has been that way,
Speaker 5: So yeah, I'm just very uneasy about it.
Speaker 3: But I both I think we both agree.
Speaker 5: It's like this is usually where we go against the Chargers,
Speaker 5: but the Joe Alt things kind of making a fuzzy
Speaker 5: form where it's like it's making me love the Jaguars.
Speaker 5: I'm trying to talk myself out of it. There's other
Speaker 5: games I should have my money and don't go too
Speaker 5: heavy on it.
Speaker 3: Two.
Speaker 5: Like we said, hard Rock right now is mine two
Speaker 5: and a half. To me, that's a Chargers line. If
Speaker 5: you want to take a position and I won't fault you,
Speaker 5: But I'm going to be on the Jags play three.
Speaker 3: That just feels like a smarter side.
Speaker 5: But I just don't know how Herbert's going to be
Speaker 5: against a front and in a matchup that offensively. I think,
Speaker 5: you know, if Trevor Lawrence can move the ball downfield,
Speaker 5: they should be great matchup. But he might be down
Speaker 5: his number number two receiver again, Chad, it's a big deal.
Speaker 1: Right Brian Thomas Junior might not be playing. Travis Hunter
Speaker 1: is out for the season now with a knee injury.
Speaker 1: Who could have seen a slightly built two way player
Speaker 1: not being able to make it through the season. That
Speaker 1: seems crazy to me. Yeah, he's a TONI he's a tony.
Speaker 1: There is a lot of social media sleuthing going on,
Speaker 1: a lot of memes on Twitter of Liam Khne just
Speaker 1: looking as disgusted as we are by Trevor Lawrence. The Internet,
Speaker 1: for all its failings, sometimes is right. And you gotta
Speaker 1: wonder if all the rumblings about Liam Kohne just not
Speaker 1: being able to move on with Trevor Lawrence starts to
Speaker 1: become a reality, is there a little bit of truth
Speaker 1: in the memes? That's what I'm asking.
Speaker 5: Again, It's just year one, so I just can't I
Speaker 5: can't overact too much to it. Yeah, if Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 5: doesn't grow and improve this offseason in this offense, and
Speaker 5: next year he's still doing these mistakes, I could see
Speaker 5: ownership taking Liam's side over Trevor lawrence side. Like they've
Speaker 5: given Trevor enough time in years you've seen his offense.
Speaker 5: It works in my opinion, like the run block and
Speaker 5: all of it. I think the offensive scheme works. I
Speaker 5: just don't know if the quarterback is the right piece.
Speaker 2: I wonder if he'd rather have Mac Jones right.
Speaker 3: Now, donate that got him on the cheat right.
Speaker 1: He had him, they had him, and he left. Maybe
Speaker 1: he'd be the better option for this offense. Hey, listen,
Speaker 1: I'm talking about Mac Jones. He's a quarterback in the
Speaker 1: NFC West. The two top teams in the NFC West
Speaker 1: are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Simon,
Speaker 1: We're gonna have a deep conversation about this one because
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams are going to be our brass
Speaker 1: balls Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bett.
Speaker 5: You know what it takes brass balls there.
Speaker 1: I know we had a long conversation on Tuesday about Seattle,
Speaker 1: and I think we both have sort of come to
Speaker 1: the conclusion that we like the Rams here.
Speaker 2: For me, it was about some of the research I did.
Speaker 1: On the matchups and the schemes despite seattle defensive prowess,
Speaker 1: and how the Rams can take advantage of that. You
Speaker 1: got a lot of blowback from the wise guys, and
Speaker 1: this one might be I'm not going to say bullying.
Speaker 2: You, but effectively debating.
Speaker 1: You, positioning you, changing your mind, moving you off your opinion.
Speaker 1: Tell me what you heard, why it change for you.
Speaker 1: I will share with you some of what I've researched
Speaker 1: and why it changed for me, But we both came
Speaker 1: to that independently.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just honestly my model like Seattle and I
Speaker 5: like Seat. Just the way they've been playing, I thought
Speaker 5: this would be a great matchup for them, But like
Speaker 5: you said, the more you dive into it, there's some weaknesses.
Speaker 5: Let's see how defense that we know the Rams will exploit,
Speaker 5: and it's a unique game in a matchup, and it's
Speaker 5: it's I'm happy we have some strong opinions on it
Speaker 5: because it is probably the best game of the week
Speaker 5: And early in the week I was like, am I
Speaker 5: really going to bet heavy on one side or the
Speaker 5: other end this game? Because it's such two really good teams.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think Evan had this amazing stat. It's
Speaker 5: the first time in NFL history we've had two teams
Speaker 5: matchup week ten or later that are both seventy seven
Speaker 5: percent against the spread and straight up matched up this late.
Speaker 5: So it's really unique where it's like two teams. Betters
Speaker 5: have loved profit it off heavily this season. Got to
Speaker 5: pick a spot. Now, I thought most books would be split.
Speaker 5: It's honestly really heavy the money towards this Ram side,
Speaker 5: and we've seen some three and a half spop up,
Speaker 5: So if you do like the Rams, I would grab
Speaker 5: it now. I do think it could get the three
Speaker 5: and a half by game time, just because so much
Speaker 5: professional money is coming to the Rams here. And it's
Speaker 5: really about McVeigh. Right in his career against Seattle, he's
Speaker 5: just done so well and it's we always saw these
Speaker 5: divisional teams these matchups. Certain teams just know how to
Speaker 5: play against certain defenses. And it doesn't matter that they
Speaker 5: had a regime change for Seattle, he still owned them
Speaker 5: since that change.
Speaker 3: So just a.
Speaker 5: McVeigh in his career twelve and five against the spread
Speaker 5: against Seattle and since twenty nineteen he's eleven and two
Speaker 5: against the spread. So just interesting. McVeigh has just dominated
Speaker 5: this franchise for so long now. And with Stafford, I
Speaker 5: was like, okay, is there a bump with the Stafford
Speaker 5: because this is by far the best quarterback he's had.
Speaker 5: In that run, He's five and oh straight up one
Speaker 5: and one against the spread against Seattle, covering by them
Speaker 5: with seven points per game.
Speaker 3: So Staffords just dominated this matchup. And you know, I
Speaker 3: agree with you.
Speaker 5: I probably overrated this Seattle defense a little too much
Speaker 5: because they really have not faced a juggernaut path of quarterbacks.
Speaker 5: They've had an easy kind of go here. So I
Speaker 5: think this will be a true test for them. And
Speaker 5: we're getting a great number with the Rams team that's
Speaker 5: just playing insanely well. One last amazing stat I saw
Speaker 5: Evan post.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 5: I love stupid stats like this because it's just when
Speaker 5: you really look into it, it's actually pretty smart. Since
Speaker 5: twenty twenty four, when the Rams have seven games and
Speaker 5: they commit three penalties or less in those seven games,
Speaker 5: the following game they were seven to zero against the
Speaker 5: spread in that matchup, it's zero penalties last week.
Speaker 2: Why is that smart though? What is that telling you?
Speaker 2: What's the correlation there?
Speaker 5: That they're just playing sound football, which is like you see,
Speaker 5: all these other teams are super sloppy right now, Like
Speaker 5: that we joke that Raiders game the Raiders had nine penalties.
Speaker 5: You don't really win like that, especially when you only
Speaker 5: score seven points. The flip side, the Rams are putting
Speaker 5: up thirty five points and against a divisional opponent, Evan
Speaker 5: zero penalties on the road.
Speaker 3: That's just really impressive to me.
Speaker 5: It just shows when McVeigh, you know, he gets these
Speaker 5: guys playing at a high level and they're in sync
Speaker 5: like this, they just keep it rolling. So I just
Speaker 5: love that stack because just shows this team is just
Speaker 5: polly In tuned right now with everything.
Speaker 3: And you know, like we've been saying the.
Speaker 5: Rams fluky fluky loss against that Eagles team, and you know,
Speaker 5: they could easily be the number one seed right now NFC.
Speaker 3: They've been playing like the best for sure.
Speaker 1: So a couple other things to keep in mind. You
Speaker 1: just mentioned the money coming in on on the Rams.
Speaker 1: The public is all over Seattle like this is a
Speaker 1: pros Joker game. It is a they are the public
Speaker 1: dog here. That's number one.
Speaker 2: Number two.
Speaker 1: You mentioned some softness in the Seahawks defense where they
Speaker 1: are worst, and they're not bad at much, but where
Speaker 1: they are worst is defending against tight ends. And all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Los Angeles Rams have become the
Speaker 1: highest tight end usage team in the NFL. They're going
Speaker 1: four deep sometimes on tight ends. So we've been seeing
Speaker 1: that and it's super exciting to watch, but it's also
Speaker 1: devastating if you've bet against the Rams. I don't want
Speaker 1: to be on the other side of the Rams and
Speaker 1: thirteen personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has
Speaker 1: not been playing very well against tight ends and in
Speaker 1: a game where something small like that is what the
Speaker 1: difference is going to be, right, It's going to be,
Speaker 1: you know, tied game weight. And the Rams have the
Speaker 1: ball with ninety seconds left from their own twenty yard line,
Speaker 1: and Matthew Stafford finds Parkinson down the scene for thirty five.
Speaker 2: Yards and gets them into field goal range.
Speaker 1: Like that could easily happen, and that could be that
Speaker 1: weakness could be the difference in the game. And I
Speaker 1: don't mind fading the public in this spot.
Speaker 3: Agree.
Speaker 5: And DeVante Adams not practice this week, but he got
Speaker 5: interview and he basically said, like I'm gonna be out
Speaker 5: there and be playing. I'm not going to miss this game,
Speaker 5: So don't be worried. If Divided it doesn't practice all week.
Speaker 5: I think you'll I'll still play, even I believe you
Speaker 5: is a bad hip, but I believe you'll still play.
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams Brass Balls Better than Week presented by
Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet. Speaking of receivers who are injured and
Speaker 1: their status being questionable or debated, The Samfisco forty nine
Speaker 1: ers are at Arizona Arizona is a three point dog.
Speaker 1: We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and
Speaker 1: a half. We wanted it to get to three. It
Speaker 1: did get to three. I don't know about you. I
Speaker 1: bett did three. Marvin Harrison Junior is out with an appendectomy.
Speaker 2: I don't think that matters to me. This is to me.
Speaker 1: This is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're
Speaker 1: just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that
Speaker 1: cannot rush the passer right now has at the center
Speaker 1: of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Wonner
Speaker 1: who's played well. But it's still different when you're playing
Speaker 1: against an all Pro tight end caliber tight end like
Speaker 1: Trey McBride.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 5: Other car knows it's another game though, just like a
Speaker 5: Jags or I'm just betting this number.
Speaker 3: I don't really feel that great about so you might
Speaker 3: have more opinions on this one than me. I simply
Speaker 3: just took this number number. Obviously.
Speaker 5: Harris News sucks like that as much you want to
Speaker 5: downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big,
Speaker 5: big target who with Brissette seem like he's been playing
Speaker 5: pretty well, so not ideal, but like you said, we're
Speaker 5: just playing the number year in the matchup, and I
Speaker 5: just I can't have this fur NiTi team catching more
Speaker 5: than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe
Speaker 5: that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wrecks.
Speaker 5: Start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well
Speaker 5: throughout the game, and moved the ball pretty well. So
Speaker 5: it's it's it's a good number, but man, is it's
Speaker 5: a gross game.
Speaker 1: Do you want to hear my ependectomy story?
Speaker 3: Not really.
Speaker 2: The story is about how.
Speaker 1: I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN,
Speaker 1: the magazine and I wasn't feeling well and for two
Speaker 1: days I stayed in the office, barely leaving because my
Speaker 1: boss at the time it was the first NFL preview
Speaker 1: we were ever closing, and my boss was like, she
Speaker 1: was like, you don't look good, but we really need you.
Speaker 1: You're running this issue, we need you to be here
Speaker 1: to close it. I under my desk. I had to
Speaker 1: be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for
Speaker 1: an emergency appandectomy, which I stayed in the hospital for
Speaker 1: ten days after.
Speaker 2: Did you not know this?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the
Speaker 1: magazine in nineteen ninety eight.
Speaker 2: But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker.
Speaker 1: After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my
Speaker 1: boss at the time, who I ended up quitting esp
Speaker 1: IN the magazine because I just could not stand her.
Speaker 1: She was one of the worst people I've ever worked,
Speaker 1: who was still to this day horrible boss. Stole every idea,
Speaker 1: what would not like, give me any help with assignments,
Speaker 1: did not try to grow me in any particular way.
Speaker 1: In my review that year, she gave me the equivalent
Speaker 1: of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance,
Speaker 1: essentially at work. And I'm like, what do you mean.
Speaker 1: She goes, well, you know you were gone for two
Speaker 1: weeks in June. I'm like, that was my honeymoon. I
Speaker 1: just started four weeks earlier and everyone knew I was
Speaker 1: getting married. She's like, and then there was that time
Speaker 1: like in September where you were gone for like two
Speaker 1: and a half weeks. I'm like, when I had when
Speaker 1: an ambulance came and took me out because I had
Speaker 1: an emergency appendectomy. The point of the story, Simon, I
Speaker 1: played through it.
Speaker 3: Did you. It seems like the appendix one. I closed it,
Speaker 3: put you down for ten days.
Speaker 2: I closed the issue. The point was, I closed the issue.
Speaker 3: We had.
Speaker 5: I had a buddy with it, basically the same thing,
Speaker 5: but unlike you, he was. It was college and he's
Speaker 5: boozing drinking. He goes, I think something's wrong. Is the
Speaker 5: same thing where it's like right down, like above the crotch,
Speaker 5: like below the stomach kind.
Speaker 2: Of yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 5: So basically the same thing as you where you probably
Speaker 5: have like a sharp pain in that area. Yeah, And
Speaker 5: he can't He basically couldn't stand up right a part.
Speaker 3: He says, he can't stand up.
Speaker 5: He said, so much pain, And I go, dude, you
Speaker 5: should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain.
Speaker 5: He goes, but I feel fine sitting here. It's just
Speaker 5: when I stand up, I can't stand up. And I
Speaker 5: basically buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him
Speaker 5: down the street to a look doctor took.
Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job.
Speaker 1: He stayed at the office for two days in agony
Speaker 1: to close the NFL preview issue.
Speaker 2: We haven't even really talked about the time.
Speaker 1: That I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine,
Speaker 1: Uh after I had broken my back in a cab accident.
Speaker 2: Next time, we'll get to that one.
Speaker 1: Yes, Baltimore at Cleveland, this one was change choice when
Speaker 1: it was eight and a half. The number of hard
Speaker 1: rock is now down to seven and a half. You
Speaker 1: mentioned there's some lingering news or issue news about a
Speaker 1: knee issue with Lamar Jackson, But we were all over
Speaker 1: this before. I'm glad here that the wise guys are
Speaker 1: into it too. Give me some feedback on what they
Speaker 1: were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very
Speaker 1: specific point that you and I discussed about this game
Speaker 1: the other day. But tell me what the wise guys
Speaker 1: were telling you and how you're feeling about this forty
Speaker 1: for forty eight hours later.
Speaker 5: Well, like I said, it feels like not that we
Speaker 5: locked into it, but it should. The spot we both
Speaker 5: loved were they. I feel like most of them knew
Speaker 5: something was up with Lamar, that he was a little
Speaker 5: banged up from that game, and they were taking position
Speaker 5: on it because ifyew of it. If you're already getting
Speaker 5: a bank of Lamore and he does play, you're handicapping
Speaker 5: him because he's not gonna have the same Russian ability
Speaker 5: against one of the best defensive lines in all football.
Speaker 5: So the early line move as a shocked. I am
Speaker 5: shocked though it has stuck at seven and a half.
Speaker 5: I thought this would be just like that Houston Tennessee
Speaker 5: linehere the book would head a little bit right, move
Speaker 5: it down to seven, maybe six and a half, just
Speaker 5: in case Lamar is out in this game. So they
Speaker 5: must must be pretty positive confident that Lamar does play,
Speaker 5: which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens
Speaker 5: right now, Like I just anything hardball says to me.
Speaker 3: It's just I don't.
Speaker 5: Believe any of it now, Like I'll believe it come
Speaker 5: Friday practice if he's with the first team, and you
Speaker 5: know that's reported by reporters, not the team itself. So yeah,
Speaker 5: it's I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland,
Speaker 5: but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap
Speaker 5: now because we really don't know if it's obviously if
Speaker 5: it's not Lamar, I mean, we're elated. I would tell
Speaker 5: people to bet now if you really think that. But
Speaker 5: I do think Wamar plays. I just he's such a competitor.
Speaker 5: He's missed so much time. I just unless he's really
Speaker 5: really banged up and he can't move, I can't see
Speaker 5: him missing this one.
Speaker 3: But for us, I wanted to play like I banged
Speaker 3: up Lamar.
Speaker 5: I mean it's it's a great, great matchup for Miles
Speaker 5: Garrett and the boys and just dive into this game more.
Speaker 5: We talked a little bit about it. It's I'm not
Speaker 5: putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel. I still think
Speaker 5: he's got issues, but I do think this cleand team
Speaker 5: better run the ball against his Ravens team. I don't
Speaker 5: think has fixed all of their issues. So yeah, still
Speaker 5: love the numbers, still love the matchup. It's just what
Speaker 5: will this number end up being. Hopefully people grabbed the eight
Speaker 5: and a half when he gave it out.
Speaker 2: How do you feel about betting it at seven and
Speaker 2: a half?
Speaker 3: I still bet it, just because it's just the unknown
Speaker 3: of Lamar.
Speaker 5: I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy.
Speaker 5: Because he does come back, this will definitely get back
Speaker 5: to eight. I think eight and a half. Unless the
Speaker 5: professionals really keep this down, I can't see it happens.
Speaker 5: It's just gonna be so much public money on this
Speaker 5: Ravens team. They're just one of the most belove teams
Speaker 5: of football right now, especially by the betting and public.
Speaker 5: They've just exactly what everyone predicted it to happen with
Speaker 5: them has happened Lamar even before he came back in
Speaker 5: with the backup, they've won it covered. It feels like
Speaker 5: three games in a row here and they've totally flipped
Speaker 5: that division with a losing record, They're the big odds
Speaker 5: on favorite win that division. So it's just I don't
Speaker 5: want people put us too much here into this number,
Speaker 5: just in case he does come back. But how can
Speaker 5: you that throw a little on if you didn't mistay
Speaker 5: and a half. They're a little here on the seven
Speaker 5: and a half on this Browns team, just in case
Speaker 5: it has known little more and this does move by
Speaker 5: another three or four points.
Speaker 1: We talked the other day about how much better the
Speaker 1: Browns are at home than on the road, so I
Speaker 1: did do a little research on it. The Browns at
Speaker 1: home since the beginning of last season, when we really
Speaker 1: started to notice this trend, give up twenty points per
Speaker 1: game at home twenty nine points per game on the roads,
Speaker 1: with thirty percent less at home. They also give up
Speaker 1: thirty percent fewer rushing yards at home than on the road,
Speaker 1: ninety five versus one hundred and thirty nine. They also
Speaker 1: give up like ten percent for your passing yards. But
Speaker 1: being at home does make a difference, you know, we
Speaker 1: talked about all the time. It could be the grass.
Speaker 1: It's obviously there's nuances, a plant of the will. The
Speaker 1: weather certainly makes a difference. I also think, like the noise,
Speaker 1: those fans are still rabid, and I think the dove
Speaker 1: pound matters. I just do like that it makes a
Speaker 1: difference for that team, and I think the fans know
Speaker 1: it so the I like the Browns. They were shots choice.
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Speaker 1: at Denver. Denver is now three and a half a
Speaker 1: hard rock There's still a bunch of fours out there
Speaker 1: as well. This was almost almost your Simon says.
Speaker 2: We heard about it on sharp Calls. JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins. Probably not planned because of a foot injury. He
Speaker 1: may end up going on injured Reserve. They've been very
Speaker 1: mom about it. Are you still there?
Speaker 3: Still on it?
Speaker 5: I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought
Speaker 5: this would be all pros on this Broncos team. But
Speaker 5: I just don't think guys trust bow Knicks.
Speaker 2: But it's either.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that's fair. He's just he's regressed in
Speaker 5: a lot of ways. But I'm glad I saw a
Speaker 5: good Champayton stat that gives me a little confidence at least.
Speaker 3: Uh, this is a good.
Speaker 5: Champ Payton game where basically, if his teams only convert
Speaker 5: one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career,
Speaker 5: they are fourteen and two straight up in that third
Speaker 5: game five and one against the spread in his career.
Speaker 3: So take what you want from that. It's it really looks.
Speaker 5: Like it's the type of thing where he just gets
Speaker 5: his offenses to bounce back and situationally after you know
Speaker 5: it's been a rough go. Like I'll be the first
Speaker 5: of him at this that Denver's game was atrocious. They
Speaker 5: should have won that game by twenty points or more,
Speaker 5: and just Bonicks gave him nothing and they didn't trust him,
Speaker 5: Like they just were not letting them throw at certain
Speaker 5: points because they just did not trust to putting the
Speaker 5: ball downfield.
Speaker 3: So you know, this is just an interesting spot.
Speaker 5: So just like the fact in the last decade, you know,
Speaker 5: Champagne seven to zero in the spot with the Broncos
Speaker 5: used two and zero straight up and against the spread
Speaker 5: in this exact spot where he's basically had a really
Speaker 5: struggling offense and they bounced back in these games.
Speaker 3: So I don't know about you.
Speaker 5: It's just the Mahomes factor, because Mahomes, just I looked at,
Speaker 5: historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just
Speaker 5: great divisionally on the road. But I just I can't
Speaker 5: get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been
Speaker 5: his whole career he's been on the chief So it's like,
Speaker 5: I know, Bonnicks is no different those quarterbacks. I'm maybe
Speaker 5: I'm overrating him still too much, But it just feels
Speaker 5: like a lot of points for this this Chiefs team
Speaker 5: going against a really good defense where I.
Speaker 3: Have some questions still about this Chiefs defense.
Speaker 5: There's still some ways I think they have holes that
Speaker 5: teams have exploited, and the biggest one to be passing
Speaker 5: downfield against them. So I know, I just that's why
Speaker 5: I didn't make it sense. I just don't want to make
Speaker 5: people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have
Speaker 5: some other gross dogs I like better than this one,
Speaker 5: but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position
Speaker 5: on it at this point, but maybe I'll temperate as
Speaker 5: we head into the weekend. I won't be put too
Speaker 5: much in because just thought of Bonix as making me sick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like every time Bonnicks starts, he's so
Speaker 1: amped up he could throw the ball through a wall.
Speaker 1: And they missed so many opportunities in those first fifteen
Speaker 1: scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are
Speaker 1: at their best and it's usually calming for most quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: and BONNICKX look like he's ready to jump out of
Speaker 1: the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat
Speaker 1: Certain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test
Speaker 1: that they haven't really had since Certain was out, and
Speaker 1: so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We
Speaker 1: don't love betting the Homes as a favorite of more
Speaker 1: than three. I get it.
Speaker 2: I like Peyton in this spot. I get it.
Speaker 5: You should say that it is Chiefs off of Bye,
Speaker 5: which we have in the past.
Speaker 3: We just automatically bet it, right, But true, I.
Speaker 1: Know I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm not bought
Speaker 1: in on Denver at all here. I have not been
Speaker 1: even the other day when you know it's at four
Speaker 1: and you're hammering it and.
Speaker 3: Can give you some defensive stats that might help a little.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's here.
Speaker 5: It's just like it's like I'm trying to find a
Speaker 5: reason there because I just it's just this number.
Speaker 3: I just can't get over it. But defensive reason defense.
Speaker 5: So they have forty plus sacks and this season they're
Speaker 5: holding opponents on third down to less than three percent
Speaker 5: conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety other than the two thousand Bucks.
Speaker 3: Remember that team, right, So it's like covered that Super
Speaker 3: Bowl nice, Yeah, it was a sick one. I just
Speaker 3: I look at this.
Speaker 5: I'm just maybe I'm betting the defense here, like that
Speaker 5: Houston game, and I got to stop thinking about bow knicks.
Speaker 5: But we're gonna need him to make plays. That's the
Speaker 5: hardest part here. It's like you're gonna need them to
Speaker 5: show up. It's just brutal, brutal reals. So yeah, I
Speaker 5: don't know if ial fortunate to be one of our
Speaker 5: fives this week. If I'm really gonna be like Chad,
Speaker 5: you gotta make guy take this one.
Speaker 3: If it was four and a half.
Speaker 5: I probably could have got you there, But like you said,
Speaker 5: the fours have comeback down. The three and a half
Speaker 5: feels like it's going to be out. So I do
Speaker 5: like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better.
Speaker 1: This week Detroit at Philadelphia. You turned me around on this.
Speaker 2: The other day.
Speaker 1: I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That
Speaker 1: is where the number is right now. It's not the
Speaker 1: best of the number, but it's still below three. I
Speaker 1: still liked it.
Speaker 2: I reran my model, because you know, I got a model.
Speaker 1: I worked on it during the off season with my
Speaker 1: intern from Harvard's stats department, not even kidding. And I think,
Speaker 1: if you can give me a good team that came
Speaker 1: off of a tight win against a good team that
Speaker 1: just had a big win, I'm still going to get
Speaker 1: value on the good team off.
Speaker 2: Of the tight win. So I started to come around
Speaker 2: on the Eagles.
Speaker 1: You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like
Speaker 1: it was split, but you kinda had me buy into
Speaker 1: the Eagles the other day when I think I was
Speaker 1: starting to lean towards the Lions.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I the hesitation, I feel like is a lot of
Speaker 5: the why Gus you are taking positions on the Lions because
Speaker 5: of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in
Speaker 5: prime time at night and how good himmc.
Speaker 3: Cambell have been covered. They're like covering machines.
Speaker 5: I think they're like sure, something like twenty five minute
Speaker 5: against the spread. It's just something insane in these night games.
Speaker 5: And then you factor in a stat we gave it
Speaker 5: ear in the year, right when they blow teams out,
Speaker 5: they cover at an insane rate. They're like a seventy
Speaker 5: percent cover rate after they win by seven points or
Speaker 5: more the following game. So we know all this, we
Speaker 5: know what we're walking through. This is a really good team,
Speaker 5: the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number, so
Speaker 5: still like it. I mean we talked on Tuesday. Was
Speaker 5: there was a couple one and a halfs out there. Yeah,
Speaker 5: it's like as soon as the show was posted, they
Speaker 5: were gone. Right, that got immediately up to two and
Speaker 5: a half of basically every book, and.
Speaker 3: We moved hard Rock was hard Rock was the last one.
Speaker 5: Though hard Rock held at the two for a while,
Speaker 5: and they did eventually move to a three and then
Speaker 5: immediately went down to So there is a ton of
Speaker 5: resistance to the three I feel like for professionals here
Speaker 5: with the Lions, which I do get in matchup wise.
Speaker 5: Like I said, I don't know if the books are
Speaker 5: accounting for how good this defensive line now is for
Speaker 5: this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position, because
Speaker 5: for about four weeks there we had just two or
Speaker 5: three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last
Speaker 5: week having guys submit and out. It's just fresh lugs.
Speaker 5: Is such a huge deal with these defensive fronts. How
Speaker 5: hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing
Speaker 5: I guess would be, well, Eagles are on a short week, right,
Speaker 5: they traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home,
Speaker 5: I guess. But to me it's the same with the Lions.
Speaker 5: They were on the road against Washington and historically, actually
Speaker 5: golf isn't great on back to back road games that
Speaker 5: are both outdoors, which again I know it's stupid stats,
Speaker 5: but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors,
Speaker 5: Like it's insane. So we got to grasp with Charles.
Speaker 5: We came people, it's he is a different and not
Speaker 5: as good outdoors and matchup wise, I just keep getting
Speaker 5: back to this Eagle's offense, as much as they have struggled,
Speaker 5: this a trick team has so many injuries like this
Speaker 5: is the exact type of defense you'd want to face, Yes,
Speaker 5: for an Eagles team that needs to get right. So
Speaker 5: I expect after a week filled with drama. I don't
Speaker 5: know if you saw all the aj Brown stuff once again,
Speaker 5: but oh yeah, basically was for the first time, honest,
Speaker 5: which felt good to hear what actually is going on
Speaker 5: rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling
Speaker 5: through his Instagram, which is just shows a level of
Speaker 5: sports media reporting right now.
Speaker 3: If that's what we're going off.
Speaker 2: Don't to impugne the media.
Speaker 1: This isn't This isn't about how bad the media is.
Speaker 1: Although if you watch you know social media, boy, they
Speaker 1: ask a lot of stupid questions and open locker rooms
Speaker 1: and press conferences.
Speaker 3: Yeah there you go chat.
Speaker 5: So I just he basically said it's him and Jaile
Speaker 5: have no issues. Jalen's playing well, He's doing what's being
Speaker 5: asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC.
Speaker 5: He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves
Speaker 5: one person he's got issues with, and that's a big
Speaker 5: deal with's Sirianni.
Speaker 3: So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 5: Basically that it came out that him Syrianny had a
Speaker 5: call and that fourth down play and hurts and AJ
Speaker 5: went rogue and just said it's it's going to you
Speaker 5: no matter what.
Speaker 3: Go deep. So there's a ton of drama.
Speaker 1: I mean, a couple of weeks ago against the Box,
Speaker 1: was it is that we talking about?
Speaker 3: No last week?
Speaker 2: Last week? I don't remember the play.
Speaker 5: It was fourth It was fourth down for our lives.
Speaker 5: The Eagles should have either pumped or kicked a field
Speaker 5: goal against green Bay and they went for it. You
Speaker 5: don't remember this fourth on like it was like a
Speaker 5: fourth and eleven or something crazy.
Speaker 2: Maybe I went to bed at this point.
Speaker 5: Well, he took a deep shot to AJ and it
Speaker 5: was incomplete and they left basically thirty seconds left for
Speaker 5: green Bay that maybe tie with a field goal at
Speaker 5: end the game.
Speaker 3: So it was just people were like, what the hell,
Speaker 3: why wou's.
Speaker 5: Henny call that play? And he basically was just like,
Speaker 5: I didn't call that. They they checked out it. So
Speaker 5: there is a ton of drama, and I get why
Speaker 5: people are freaking out about this Eagles team, but just
Speaker 5: look at the matchup on the field. I just love
Speaker 5: this matchup for this Eagles team, and the public's flyin
Speaker 5: into a little bit. Like you said, the lines they're
Speaker 5: getting all the money, all the tickets right now, they
Speaker 5: are heavily a public dog, and then the line is
Speaker 5: moving against him.
Speaker 3: Like I said, it's hit three to a couple of books.
Speaker 5: So if it touches three comes Sunday, I will feel
Speaker 5: much better about our Eagles position because I mean some
Speaker 5: real pro money is coming again on the two and
Speaker 5: a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking
Speaker 5: on because right now all the pro money came in
Speaker 5: on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here,
Speaker 5: but obviously, like Chad said, we wish we give out
Speaker 5: the best of the number.
Speaker 1: You know what, one team I don't worry about when
Speaker 1: there's a lot of drama, The Eagles.
Speaker 2: Philly Justice, Welcome to Philly, bitch.
Speaker 1: There's always drama like there has been drama. I think
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni attracts the drama. I think people wanna like him,
Speaker 1: not like him. I don't think he cares. I think
Speaker 1: he says whatever is on his mind. I think he
Speaker 1: likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it. And I
Speaker 1: think the Eagles have the kind of personality that the
Speaker 1: Bears had in the eighties and the Cowboys had in
Speaker 1: the nineties. Like they're just these teams where there's big personalities,
Speaker 1: a huge amount of talent, and there's always going to
Speaker 1: be some kind of.
Speaker 2: Turmoil in that locker room.
Speaker 1: And I don't think it matters, Like I just don't
Speaker 1: like that's It's all noise to me, And it's what's.
Speaker 3: That, Sirianni? He is John Madden.
Speaker 5: So they put up the stat the only other quarterback
Speaker 5: that more wins through the first five seasons in NFL
Speaker 5: history percentage wise John Madden, And I thought about that comparison.
Speaker 5: It feels so right that man joined a team of
Speaker 5: crazy drama raaders team just the head cases, and no
Speaker 5: one took him serious for about five years, even though
Speaker 5: he was leading the league and win percentage. So I'm
Speaker 5: one of those people I hated Tierianni.
Speaker 3: I just hate the way he handled the media that way.
Speaker 5: He talks to the fans all of that, but all
Speaker 5: he does is win and you gotta respect it. And
Speaker 5: like you said, he seems like he thrives when there's
Speaker 5: tons of in house dramas. So you're right, maybe I'm
Speaker 5: over to too much. Strike Just there's so much affilure
Speaker 5: right now. I can't get over how bad it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you're in the middle of the white noise.
Speaker 1: You can't get away from it. Whereas like I'm just
Speaker 1: seeing it as funny and it's the same story every
Speaker 1: single week and every single year with this team, and
Speaker 1: this team. Honestly, I know they're not being nearly as effective,
Speaker 1: but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me,
Speaker 1: I'm only watching Jalen Hurts, and Jalen Hurts when he's
Speaker 1: on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of
Speaker 1: effectiveness he has in the past. This year, it seems
Speaker 1: like the lack of effectiveness is almost by a choice
Speaker 1: where he's just making the right calls and doing the
Speaker 1: right things and doing what needs to be one and
Speaker 1: not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic
Speaker 1: plays for lack of a better term. And so I'm
Speaker 1: only watching him and he's just he's unbothered.
Speaker 3: It's fair.
Speaker 5: But like last year, I had a sneaky I guess
Speaker 5: I was thinking because I gave him out heading the year.
Speaker 3: Bout was just all in on that ego steament.
Speaker 5: Wins Super Bowl, where this year I just have so
Speaker 5: many questions where last year I did not. Like I
Speaker 5: had one big question. It was about that defense, and
Speaker 5: after the bye week they got it right the Eagles
Speaker 5: after their bye week, the defense looked amazing, but the
Speaker 5: offense left left a lot to the imagination. So yeah,
Speaker 5: this is like I said, this is a perfect spot
Speaker 5: for this egos offense to get right against a banged
Speaker 5: up lines defense.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that crazy Las Vegas Raiders plus three
Speaker 1: and a half Simon Sas against the Dallas Cowboys on
Speaker 1: Monday Night. Uh, you gotta want this, you gotta you
Speaker 1: really gotta want it.
Speaker 2: Explain yourself, Simon Hunter on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 5: I still love it the pushback I got for people,
Speaker 5: the pros that have talked about this when it is
Speaker 5: that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that
Speaker 5: are coming off into reserved and you know, could that
Speaker 5: be a big upgrade for them, Sure, But my argument
Speaker 5: with them is it's like trying to fix a whole
Speaker 5: on the sinking ship with a truly a band aid,
Speaker 5: Like there they have so many issues. Their top corner
Speaker 5: Bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed, like
Speaker 5: something made him so special from just having a couple injuries,
Speaker 5: he's lost it. So I just love this match with
Speaker 5: this Raiders offense wise, I just think this is the
Speaker 5: perfect team they match up for them. And defensively, you know,
Speaker 5: you've seen the Cowboys have struggle this year. It's whin
Speaker 5: there's facing against a good pass rush. So to me,
Speaker 5: Max Crosby, you know, I don't want to get too
Speaker 5: much credence to podcast people, but because you know, every
Speaker 5: week I'm frea might go on his.
Speaker 3: Pockets and stafe stuff.
Speaker 5: But I saw this week he's basically playing all these
Speaker 5: clips from people in the media trashing them, saying how
Speaker 5: bad he's been and how that loss was on him,
Speaker 5: like he did nothing in that Denver game and they
Speaker 5: can't stop the run, everything like that, And I just
Speaker 5: love that type of thing for him, where he's just.
Speaker 3: Going to be a mental case in this game. So
Speaker 3: it's it's shocking.
Speaker 5: To me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet.
Speaker 5: But like I said, maybe Sunday Morning shot, I'll have
Speaker 5: more guys join me. But it's just because it's the
Speaker 5: Monday game. I feel like it's either been for the
Speaker 5: pro side at least they're taking the Cowboys, or nothing
Speaker 5: at all at this point.
Speaker 2: All Right, we got a lot to discuss.
Speaker 5: We've got a couple of games you missed that I like, Oh,
Speaker 5: tell me what I miss Where are we at with
Speaker 5: this Panthers team?
Speaker 3: I told you I got a lot of calls about it.
Speaker 2: You know what's funny?
Speaker 3: Are we missing it here?
Speaker 2: I wonder if we are too.
Speaker 1: I was actually just scrolling through because I was looking
Speaker 1: ahead to our underdog parlay, and the Panthers jumped out
Speaker 1: as a team that we would want to put.
Speaker 2: In as the underdog parlay.
Speaker 1: And obviously I've got trepidation because of what's happening with
Speaker 1: Bryce Young in the past couple weeks.
Speaker 2: He just hasn't looked good. But I do.
Speaker 1: Think I think there's much more systemic issues with the
Speaker 1: Falcons than with the Panthers to.
Speaker 5: Be catching three and a half. That's I feel like
Speaker 5: we both aree on that. Yeah, points for a the
Speaker 5: Falcons team that has so many issues.
Speaker 1: Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other
Speaker 1: day I think I saw yesterday on the X platform,
Speaker 1: where Michael Pennix was asked about you know who he
Speaker 1: leans on for support when things aren't going well and
Speaker 1: who gives him advice. He talked about his fiance and
Speaker 1: his high school coach, the people he didn't mention in
Speaker 1: his ears sort of that are helping coach him up
Speaker 1: Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his
Speaker 1: head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of
Speaker 1: this on the field where his performance has not been
Speaker 1: where it should be. But how much of that is
Speaker 1: on the coaching and how much of that is on
Speaker 1: the play calling. So I do think that there's probably,
Speaker 1: for lack of a better term, better vibes in Carolina.
Speaker 1: I just don't know. I guess at the hook, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we're taking Carolina. That's really what it is.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And we didn't even talk about, which was a
Speaker 5: mistake on my part. Atlanta is coming off an overtime
Speaker 5: game and an international. This has never happened in the
Speaker 5: history of football. Usually it's happened five times, will all
Speaker 5: those teams had bye weeks. It's the first time ever
Speaker 5: a team is playing an overtime game internationally come home
Speaker 5: to play a game so there's there's that part of it,
Speaker 5: and you know the Penix part, you know, like you
Speaker 5: like we said, it's just inconsistent and that's a lot
Speaker 5: of points for end me catching in a divisional matchup
Speaker 5: where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last
Speaker 5: few times they've played. So yeah, I just want to
Speaker 5: make sure I bought this one up. Just don't appel
Speaker 5: to be shocked if we do end up taking this
Speaker 5: one on Sunday. It's a game I'm been into. I
Speaker 5: like the Panthers here, and it's definitely was a miss
Speaker 5: on my part. I should trust of my model, which
Speaker 5: I had at two and a half. I just I
Speaker 5: couldn't get what the books you're doing. You're hanging this number.
Speaker 5: But I do think this comes down to three as
Speaker 5: more professionals coming and bet the Spanther side.
Speaker 1: So all right, I'm into that. I'm into that because,
Speaker 1: to be honest, I think we were struggling to find
Speaker 1: five that we love, not even like agreed on, just
Speaker 1: like five games that we were really in love with.
Speaker 2: So I could see that and.
Speaker 5: Then before you got just going to throw a two games,
Speaker 5: just I'm line moving while we're doing the show live
Speaker 5: Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple of
Speaker 5: books Jesus, So yeah, that's that's happening as we speak,
Speaker 5: and the Bears are shifting to two and a half.
Speaker 3: So yeah, we talked about a little bit.
Speaker 5: We both I feel like we're trying not to We
Speaker 5: both are liking on the Bears at plus three.
Speaker 3: That's just and this was three and a half.
Speaker 2: This was at three and a half by the way,
Speaker 2: last night, So it to me it's about.
Speaker 5: We don't know because we're doing the show right now,
Speaker 5: but it's two and a half everywhere now.
Speaker 2: I do not like the Bears at two and a half.
Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, I like King.
Speaker 5: I'm bringing up for people if they want to grab
Speaker 5: the Bears. I grabbed the three if you can before
Speaker 5: it moves.
Speaker 2: That game was at three and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, that the Vikings at two and a
Speaker 1: half might be an interesting play on Sunday, Okay, I
Speaker 1: keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really
Speaker 1: bad teams, but like.
Speaker 3: Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right.
Speaker 2: Can I invest in JJ McCarthy. You know, that's just tricky.
Speaker 3: It's a really tricky one in his career, right, end
Speaker 3: of the year.
Speaker 1: All right, So let's let's take a pause here for
Speaker 1: a second, because I want to recap. Cincinnati plus five
Speaker 1: and a half is a game we're both going to
Speaker 1: be on. Houston minus six and a half. The Bucks
Speaker 1: are now a plus six. That's scary. I'm glad we
Speaker 1: really haven't bet that. We know we like the Rams
Speaker 1: plus three. We know we like I mean minus three.
Speaker 1: We know we like Cleveland, uh plus seven and a half,
Speaker 1: plus eight plus eight and a half. We think we
Speaker 1: like Philly, uh minus two and a half. I don't
Speaker 1: love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot.
Speaker 3: Get it. The Raiders are tough. It's tough.
Speaker 2: Raiders are tough.
Speaker 5: You gotta keep fan This Dallas team is a big favorites.
Speaker 5: It's been profitable this year, fading.
Speaker 1: So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give
Speaker 1: me your biggest bets right now. It's it sounds like
Speaker 1: Panthers might actually be in there.
Speaker 3: Pull up close pants and be a man. They're getting there.
Speaker 5: Like, honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland,
Speaker 5: like we talked about. I really thought not that that
Speaker 5: number was gonna come steaming down because of what we
Speaker 5: were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet
Speaker 5: it before the all the Lamar news. Still like at
Speaker 5: the seven plus seven and a half as long as
Speaker 5: above the seven, rams keep hitting it like I got
Speaker 5: tons on two and a half of a ton of
Speaker 5: minus three. If it gets a minus three and a half,
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna be that invested into it. It's all
Speaker 5: about the number here, So if it stays on the three,
Speaker 5: I really think I'd be one of my bigger bets
Speaker 5: comes Sunday, and I'm probably gonna get there. Probably gonna
Speaker 5: get there on this Eagles team. I just right now,
Speaker 5: I haven't taken too big of a position, but it's
Speaker 5: just so I thought the one and a half would
Speaker 5: pop again, so I'm gonna try to be patient on
Speaker 5: that one.
Speaker 3: But it seems like it keeps getting to the three.
Speaker 5: It's not going the way I wanted to, so I
Speaker 5: might just have to suck it up and just take
Speaker 5: the two and a half on this Eagles team.
Speaker 2: All right? With three? Team parlay for underdogs.
Speaker 3: My dog blocks.
Speaker 6: Your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog.
Speaker 1: I would do Carolina, mm hmm, gotta do Cincy Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 3: That was on my list plus two. Were you Cardinals?
Speaker 2: Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly.
Speaker 5: I know I'm not crazy about it, but like it's
Speaker 5: either them or the Jacks.
Speaker 3: Is a good home dogs.
Speaker 2: Let's do the Cardinals, all right?
Speaker 1: So three team Parlay, Carolina, Arizona and Cincinnati favorite Parlay.
Speaker 7: Gotta go Rams, Rams, Ravens, Ravens, Houston, Houston, Green Bay,
Speaker 7: Green Bay.
Speaker 3: I mean it's tough, but it's it brings the juice down.
Speaker 3: First little bit, Philly.
Speaker 2: I was looking at Philly.
Speaker 1: It feels like we could probably avoid that anxiety a
Speaker 1: little bit.
Speaker 2: Can't we?
Speaker 3: What Eagles? Yeah, speak for yourself?
Speaker 2: Allright, fine, let's do Philly. Let's do silly all right?
Speaker 2: Sharp versus Square? You won last week?
Speaker 3: You had just dominating you chat. You gotta get together, brother.
Speaker 2: You had Dolphins plus nine and a half.
Speaker 5: I gotta go with my guys. I guess give me
Speaker 5: Panthers plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, then I will take gimme Houston. This has
Speaker 1: been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network. Will
Speaker 1: be back for more Sharper Square on YouTube on Sunday morning.
Speaker 1: As an eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and
Speaker 1: Simon and which we will make utterly painful human decisions
Speaker 1: in a total panic that we will regret the rest.
Speaker 2: Of the day.
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven
Speaker 1: thirty ish to recap all of that misery. Watch We'll
Speaker 1: listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe
Speaker 1: to the channel. Also Donalds from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
Speaker 1: you get your pods, rate review subscribes say whatever you want.
Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love you.
Speaker 3: Hey, let's recap for