Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: We know infection rates are accelerating in the Southwest and
Speaker 1: the Rocky Mountain West. After sweeping through states in the Midwest,
Speaker 1: we talked about a growing number of hospitals canceling or
Speaker 1: delaying some planned medical procedures to preserve staff and beds.
Speaker 1: The death toll in US nursing homes and long term
Speaker 1: care facilities topping one hundred thousand, and meantime, you've got
Speaker 1: US airline traffic rising as some Americans traveled for Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: despite tons and tons of warnings from American health officials.
Speaker 1: Cases right now passing fifty nine eight million deaths topping
Speaker 1: one point four million. So let's talk about the virus
Speaker 1: our daily check today with Dr Michelle Longmire, CEO at Metable.
Speaker 1: It's a platform connecting patient sites and clinical trial teams,
Speaker 1: and she joins us on the phone in Palo Alto.
Speaker 1: Dr Longmyer, so nice to have you here with us.
Speaker 1: First of all, um, tell us a little bit about
Speaker 1: what you're seeing on the ground there at there on
Speaker 1: the West coast. Sure, well, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: having me today. You know, I think everyone is talking
Speaker 1: about the risk mitigation strategies that are really needed for
Speaker 1: the holiday. Um. Of course, everyone loves Thanksgiving. It's really
Speaker 1: a quintessential family holiday in the United States, and unfortunately
Speaker 1: this year, you know, the best thing to do is
Speaker 1: to really you know, take the safety measures into consideration.
Speaker 1: And unfortunately this means really not spending time um with
Speaker 1: family in person, you know, if they haven't been within
Speaker 1: the same quarantine group. So I think that's really friend
Speaker 1: of mine for people in California, and we're just thinking
Speaker 1: about how we can look forward, you know, to a
Speaker 1: vaccine into an area and era where we can be
Speaker 1: back with our family and friends. But certainly people are
Speaker 1: thinking about polity, but with safety and mind yeah, No, absolutely,
Speaker 1: And I know that your specialty is um autoimmune skin diseases,
Speaker 1: but I do want to um before we get into
Speaker 1: the kind of work you guys are doing at your
Speaker 1: firm um and your company that specifically, when you see
Speaker 1: the rising numbers of people who are traveling airline traffic,
Speaker 1: does that say to you that in a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks we probably are going to look back at Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: as another super spreader event. I mean, you know, the
Speaker 1: data is the data, and it's we know that the
Speaker 1: social distancing, and we know that the masks and we
Speaker 1: know that, you know, the isolation measures are critical, and
Speaker 1: you know this is a very contagious illness, and you
Speaker 1: know the probabilities are what they are, and if you
Speaker 1: defy those by crowded airplanes and you know public like
Speaker 1: you know, public gatherings, we do see that the disease spreads.
Speaker 1: So you know, it would be it would be very
Speaker 1: you know, it would be unlikely that we won't see
Speaker 1: that following the holiday because you know, people, if they
Speaker 1: are not heeding the warnings, we're going to see you know,
Speaker 1: much greater numbers and the spread is going to be there.
Speaker 1: So certainly I think that's why everyone's preparing for that
Speaker 1: because we're observing that there. You know, people are still traveling,
Speaker 1: and the airplanes are certainly an area where we know
Speaker 1: that there is you know, contagent risk. Right, it's the
Speaker 1: antithesis of everything that everybody says. Right, it's closed, it's
Speaker 1: lots of people. It's not an ideal situation. So talk
Speaker 1: to us, Talk to us a little bit about the
Speaker 1: work you guys are doing it medable, Um, you guys
Speaker 1: are a platform. You bring together patient sites and clinical
Speaker 1: trial teams. I have members of my family that are
Speaker 1: in the medical community, so I understand this, this whole idea,
Speaker 1: especially when they are UM. You know, therapies out there,
Speaker 1: you know, finding people who might be good for a trial,
Speaker 1: which just helps and kind of get learning to know
Speaker 1: more about a treatment. But tell me about what you
Speaker 1: guys are doing, specifically when it comes to COVID nineteen. Sure,
Speaker 1: so you know, clinical trials are a critical component of
Speaker 1: developing new medications, and I think it was an area
Speaker 1: of people didn't really think about prior to COVID, but
Speaker 1: then once COVID hit. You know, the roles of clinical
Speaker 1: trials for vaccine and therapy development became something that the
Speaker 1: broader public was aware of, and you know, you look
Speaker 1: at the news coming out of Fiser and Maderna. Let's
Speaker 1: take Fiser for example. You know, we've had over forty
Speaker 1: thou volunteers into the Fiser vaccine study, and these are
Speaker 1: people who you know, want to be a part of
Speaker 1: the research efforts, who also are eager to get the vaccination,
Speaker 1: and they've played a foundational role in us, you know,
Speaker 1: getting through this pandemic. You know, I think our role
Speaker 1: medical in this is to tackle some of the biggest
Speaker 1: challenges facing clinical trials, and one of the biggest challenges
Speaker 1: is access. You know, the pandemic his results in enclosures
Speaker 1: of many of you know, the general kind of day
Speaker 1: to day health care facilities, right, we don't want people
Speaker 1: going in there because we don't want to spread the disease.
Speaker 1: And clinical trials in a traditional sense are no different
Speaker 1: than as you go to your doctor. What metaval pioneering
Speaker 1: is really a way to access the clinical trial and
Speaker 1: the convenience of your own home, and this has become
Speaker 1: extremely important in the setting of the pandemic and has
Speaker 1: become extremely important in these large vaccine trials. You know,
Speaker 1: where we need the participation. People are eager to be
Speaker 1: a part of research, and we need to bring that
Speaker 1: into the comfort of their own home, you know, through
Speaker 1: the various aspects of the clinical trial. So we've seen
Speaker 1: a big shift from clinic based healthcare delivery and clinical
Speaker 1: trial delivery to much more of a remote, digital and
Speaker 1: connected ecosystem. And our company has really been at the
Speaker 1: forefront of that transition and transformation where high tech world
Speaker 1: dr Longmeyer. But still, of course technology doesn't always it
Speaker 1: fails us occasionally, I asked um alright, put out the
Speaker 1: question of there you are in Palo Alto, smack in
Speaker 1: the middle of Silicon Valley. Healthcare we know has been
Speaker 1: slow to change, slow to disrupt, but the virus has
Speaker 1: definitely made people um do more telement us in we'd
Speaker 1: start to see some changes in the health care system.
Speaker 1: What role can and should Silicon Valley be playing, even
Speaker 1: more so when it comes to kind of bringing healthcare
Speaker 1: to the twenty one century. Sure, I think that the
Speaker 1: pandemic is an unprecedented opportunity for Silicon Valley and technology
Speaker 1: to show the value around major changes. So, you know,
Speaker 1: what we've seen is say telemedicine, you know, utilization up
Speaker 1: by five acts of what it was before. This is
Speaker 1: you know, really important that is a tech industry, we're
Speaker 1: able to move quickly to use the window of opportunity
Speaker 1: to bring in these changes and really for us as
Speaker 1: a clinical trial company to serve patients in new ways,
Speaker 1: and they're looking to connect to the health care system
Speaker 1: with new technologies now and bringing it back to your company.
Speaker 1: Just got about forty seconds left here. I mean, the
Speaker 1: more patients that get involved in clinical trials, we ultimately
Speaker 1: on the other side figure out what treatments can best
Speaker 1: serve us as a as a population. I'm I mean
Speaker 1: Chlinical trials are the route to us, you know, achieving
Speaker 1: cures to seven thousand or more uncured diseases today, and
Speaker 1: they are a fundamental part of us developing new medication.
Speaker 1: So it's to the benefit of everyone. I'd encourage everyone,
Speaker 1: you know to consider clinical trials. It's super important for
Speaker 1: us as you know, we move forward with better health
Speaker 1: as a society and certainly as we've seen with COVID
Speaker 1: night teams. All right, listen, great to check in with you,
Speaker 1: and I'm glad we were able to reconnect you well.
Speaker 1: Have a great Thanksgiving Dr Michelle Longmeyer. She is CEO
Speaker 1: at Meda bal And she is joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Palo Alto, California. This is Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. We continue to learn every
Speaker 1: day about the power of social media companies such as
Speaker 1: Google and others, and this story reported for Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week really plays into that big time. It's how Google's
Speaker 1: deep pockets really makes some of its rivals less eager
Speaker 1: for an antitrust crackdown. You're probably saying, well it. So
Speaker 1: let's get into this um with our own Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week editor Joe Joe Webber. He's joining us on the
Speaker 1: access line in Brooklyn. This story written by Mark Bergen,
Speaker 1: who is technology reporter at Bloomberg News. But Joel, let
Speaker 1: me kick it off with you first. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is a story that I feel like, you know, we
Speaker 1: continue to see some of these big social media players,
Speaker 1: big you know, tech players, they just continue to dominate,
Speaker 1: and some of it is because of some of these
Speaker 1: relationships they have with even some of their smaller competitors. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that's what makes this story, UM, I think part
Speaker 1: of an interesting antitrust conversation, UM and in an element
Speaker 1: that UM we hadn't I hadn't heard before. And and
Speaker 1: part of that is, you know, Google has really, you know,
Speaker 1: just an amazing modernization ability, and as part of that,
Speaker 1: they are not shy about throwing their cash around, and
Speaker 1: a lot of that cash goes to to to We'll
Speaker 1: call them rivals, even though that you might not totally
Speaker 1: always think of them as rivals. But but in this case,
Speaker 1: UM and the one that I'd love to have, Mark
Speaker 1: talked more about Mozilla, which has a rival product in
Speaker 1: his Firefox browser, UM actually makes a lot of money
Speaker 1: from Google, even though Google has a rival product and Chrome.
Speaker 1: So so Mark talked to us about how how how
Speaker 1: Mozilla in Firefox sort of see this relationship with Google
Speaker 1: in light of the anti Druss conversation that we're in
Speaker 1: the middle of. Yeah. Sure, I think there's like two
Speaker 1: different version, right. There is a front facing, sort of
Speaker 1: official version, which is we have Mozilla and there in
Speaker 1: the story saying you know, it's interesting that they actually
Speaker 1: switched to Yahoo in two in fourteen because Yahoo is
Speaker 1: willing to give them a lump sum from our from
Speaker 1: understanding even like a hundred million more year or a
Speaker 1: year than Google, which was great from from Mozilla standpoint
Speaker 1: to have you know, that much more money. But then
Speaker 1: a lot of their Firefox users just started switching over
Speaker 1: to Google. And so by they're telling officially, you know
Speaker 1: a lot of people just prefer Google Search show over alternatives.
Speaker 1: You talk to sort of privately with a lot of
Speaker 1: people that they work there, and they're like die hard
Speaker 1: privacy advocates, right, and they're kind of some of them
Speaker 1: are disturbed or upset about some of Google's privacy practices,
Speaker 1: and so it's they like, you know, as much as
Speaker 1: they want to push on on Google for Chrome, and
Speaker 1: they have done to the marketing and you know they
Speaker 1: can out with a great billboard a few years ago
Speaker 1: that's a big browser is watching you. They're they're well
Speaker 1: aware that they're sort of like poking the bear, uh
Speaker 1: and and they're they're actually kind of targeting who is
Speaker 1: their biggest bank roller. So it's just very awkward, I
Speaker 1: think kind of a unique position for the company to
Speaker 1: be in, um that many other Google partners are also in, right,
Speaker 1: and and so that kind of brings us to the
Speaker 1: anti trust context. Um, So how do how would like
Speaker 1: a regulator um look at at an arrangement like this
Speaker 1: and try and make sense of it. I think, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, Mozilla's come out and publicly and they think
Speaker 1: mostly we expected to privately to say. The d o
Speaker 1: J is coming after these search deals that Google has
Speaker 1: UM where they pay up front for for distribution of
Speaker 1: the search engine. Um. That seems to be something where
Speaker 1: you're going to see a lot of companies that would
Speaker 1: maybe normally come out in the port of that now
Speaker 1: arguing please don't make those illegal bigger because they're really
Speaker 1: important for our bottom line. Um. So I don't know
Speaker 1: how the d o J is going to land on that.
Speaker 1: You know, you certainly like the Apple Google relationships and
Speaker 1: really fastened anyone, Well get into that one. That's the
Speaker 1: one that blew my mind in your story because it's
Speaker 1: I mean, they really benefit from each other. It's it's
Speaker 1: a great mutual benefit of Google. All these talks about
Speaker 1: how it has a horizontal business, right, uh, and so
Speaker 1: so much of their advertising, right, they're sharing revenue with publishers,
Speaker 1: they're sharing with websites and YouTube. Right. It's it's all
Speaker 1: the same sort of model with the Android right every
Speaker 1: single you know, Samsung gets a lump of change every
Speaker 1: year from the Google searches on Samsung, and Apple gets
Speaker 1: the same deal, although it is a much more secretive deal.
Speaker 1: There are very few people at both companies know you
Speaker 1: know the details of that. Um. You know, we reported
Speaker 1: Apple had had talked to Microsoft and being a few
Speaker 1: years ago. I think that really scared Google because they
Speaker 1: get so much revenue from from iPhones. Mark. Can we
Speaker 1: talk about like Mozilla specifically and like how how much
Speaker 1: do they get in in cash, cold hard cash from
Speaker 1: from Google and how significant is that to their bottom line? Yeah,
Speaker 1: so we don't. Mozilla is a it's a nonprofit. It's
Speaker 1: private company owned by a non profits that they put
Speaker 1: out numbers of last numbers from I think with teen
Speaker 1: where they don't give the exact figure saying a line
Speaker 1: one it says from Google, but they have royalties and
Speaker 1: royalties were close to the um They said about ninety
Speaker 1: percent of royalties I believe in over four hundred million
Speaker 1: a year and the revenue and the bulk of that
Speaker 1: comes from these search deals. And so we're from our
Speaker 1: based on our source. Thing that's like about probably minimum
Speaker 1: of that of their entire revenue comes. So this is
Speaker 1: close to half a half a billion dollars a week here.
Speaker 1: That's amazing. UM. So you know, you you also mentioned that,
Speaker 1: you know, and you mentioned this earlier, the privacy element,
Speaker 1: and one of the things that you sort of had
Speaker 1: explored or was explored in the story, um, is that
Speaker 1: there was actually a kind of a niscent ability to
Speaker 1: sort of jump into the search game. Oh you're gonna
Speaker 1: cut me off for Joe Biden, aren't you. I love
Speaker 1: you dearly, Happy Thanksgiving. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. So I do want to
Speaker 1: get to our Bloomberg Green segment because changing times, based
Speaker 1: on the changing political wins. That story in our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Green segment today really about how today's smart money is
Speaker 1: staying away from Arctic oil drilling. Let's get into it
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg News Environmental regulations reporter Jennifer de Lowe. She
Speaker 1: is with us on the phone from the nation's capital. Hey, Jen,
Speaker 1: nice to have you here with us. So we're talking
Speaker 1: about drilling rights and selling those drilling rights. That's something
Speaker 1: that Trump Trump administration has been pretty aggressive about doing absolutely.
Speaker 1: You know, they were part of a push several years
Speaker 1: ago to get Congress to basically mandate that they stand
Speaker 1: up a drilling program in the Arctic as part of
Speaker 1: the tax bill in two thousand seventeen. And now they're
Speaker 1: taking really concrete steps to try to get drilling rights sold.
Speaker 1: Really in the final days and maybe even hours of
Speaker 1: the Trump presidency, we could see at least Sail January
Speaker 1: nineteen uh trying to basically get these drilling rights out
Speaker 1: the door, and folks are lining up for them. Correct,
Speaker 1: little little sarcasm, Well, tell listen, let's listen. I feel
Speaker 1: like this speaks to so many conversations we have on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: That right, you can put it out there. But the
Speaker 1: winds have changed, especially when it comes to things like
Speaker 1: this and the impact on the climate and kind of
Speaker 1: where the energy markets are going. That's exactly right. I mean,
Speaker 1: we see the same thing in the market, you know,
Speaker 1: with a whole and Naphi gas in the electricity market,
Speaker 1: and here, you know, it's just remarkable. Had this sale
Speaker 1: happened even a year ago, you'd have probably seen much
Speaker 1: more interest, much more activity, including some bigger names, and
Speaker 1: and the reality is that oil companies are facing, you know,
Speaker 1: not just the reality of a Biden administration that has
Speaker 1: promised to block are they're drilling, So these leases are
Speaker 1: really going to be worthless for four years at least,
Speaker 1: but they're also seeing you know, financing dry up for
Speaker 1: these projects, and the pr you know, hit that they
Speaker 1: would take from from drilling in the Arctic, which is
Speaker 1: wildly unpopular, is a significant factor to a year ago,
Speaker 1: some of these considerations were not at play, Jed, you
Speaker 1: know what I think really that was I thought interesting
Speaker 1: that anybody who bids on these drilling rights, as you
Speaker 1: say in your reporting, we'll meet outside financing. And again,
Speaker 1: as you said the pr image, there are a lot
Speaker 1: of banks who are like thanks, but no thanks. Because
Speaker 1: increasingly we're seeing among the big investor, there's institutional investors.
Speaker 1: They are looking at the investments, the loans that a
Speaker 1: bank makes, right, the business that it transacts, uh, in
Speaker 1: terms of how it fits into increasingly e s G criteria.
Speaker 1: Well that's exactly right. A movie seen five major US
Speaker 1: banks adopt policy saying that they are not going to
Speaker 1: finance oil and gas projects in the Arctic refuge. And
Speaker 1: they're saying, you know that they're adopting these policies not
Speaker 1: because they're you know, just being pressured by environmentalists, which
Speaker 1: is something you hear from the Trump administrations, but in
Speaker 1: fact there are real financial risks involved. They've already taken
Speaker 1: hits with their oil investments, and of course they're concerned
Speaker 1: about risks to the climate, to their investments and their
Speaker 1: reputation if they keep underwriting these projects. So what happens though,
Speaker 1: if somebody does buy a lease before the Biden administration
Speaker 1: steps in, Um, it's real right and it can lead
Speaker 1: to drilling. In fact, it can so these leases if
Speaker 1: they are formally not just sold, but actually formally issued
Speaker 1: before or Biden is inaugurated, their ten year contracts, and
Speaker 1: it's really hard to to get out of a contract
Speaker 1: and would be really hard for the Biden administrations to
Speaker 1: walk away from them. Uh. The reality is every single
Speaker 1: permit these companies would need to actually do something with
Speaker 1: those leases is not going to come in the next
Speaker 1: four years. I mean we're talking about drilling permits, but
Speaker 1: also environmental various environmental approvals and wildlife approvals. So all
Speaker 1: of those are an obstacle to actually standing up activity
Speaker 1: in the next four years. One thing that's going to
Speaker 1: be interesting to see is really who shows up. We
Speaker 1: won't have big names, but we could see some small
Speaker 1: sub speculators and little known companies that have ties with
Speaker 1: the last interests that want to see the theory of develops. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a fascinating story and a deep dive into what's
Speaker 1: going on. Uh, you know, as everything else is going
Speaker 1: on around us, we've got to keep a watch on
Speaker 1: these kinds of things. Jen Thank you so much. Jennifer Deloe.
Speaker 1: She is environmental regulations reporter for us here at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News in our Bloomberg Green segment today. Check her out
Speaker 1: on Twitter and you can check her out on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal and also at Bloomberg dot com. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Oh,
Speaker 1: just scanning my Bloomberg terminal and yeah, this is the
Speaker 1: most right story in the past eight hours on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg and kind of feeling a little bit chilly across
Speaker 1: Wall Street. This story is about Bank of America's leaders,
Speaker 1: how they are planning year and bonuses that break with
Speaker 1: Wall Streets traders hopes for hefty raises. It's kind of
Speaker 1: odd considering they've had a bit of a record setting run.
Speaker 1: So let's explain what's going on. Michelle Davis, finance reporter
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg New she's with us once again on the
Speaker 1: phone from Vermont. Michelle, good to have you here with us.
Speaker 1: You know, you put bonus in a headline and it's
Speaker 1: going to trend high on the Bloomberg. What's going on here? Yeah, So,
Speaker 1: you know, as you mentioned, Bank America's senior executives have
Speaker 1: been floating plans right now about you know, what bonuses
Speaker 1: are going to look like. It's that time of year
Speaker 1: and a lot of people in the industry, you know,
Speaker 1: traders have been expecting to get big payoffs because trading
Speaker 1: revenue has surged this year. You know, it's been one
Speaker 1: of the best years in in a decade or since
Speaker 1: the financial crisis. Some people feel like they've worked harder
Speaker 1: than they ever have before. And uh, the color we're
Speaker 1: getting is that exacts they're actually thinking about keeping the
Speaker 1: bonus pool slots for traders, even though you know, trading
Speaker 1: revenue jumped in the first nine months of the year.
Speaker 1: And a lot of this has to do with the
Speaker 1: fact that, you know, Bank of America while it has
Speaker 1: Wall Street Operations also has a big consumer bank that
Speaker 1: uh hasn't been performing as well over the past few months. Uh.
Speaker 1: This you know, matches what what other banks have also
Speaker 1: been dealing with. And so you know, banks have had
Speaker 1: to put up a ton of money, billions of dollars
Speaker 1: to cover potential loan losses on the consumer side of
Speaker 1: their businesses, and so in preparation for that, they're having
Speaker 1: to temper expectations about bonuses on the on the Wall
Speaker 1: Street side to try to you know, sturdy the ship,
Speaker 1: study the ship before poss well on certain right. And
Speaker 1: some would say, listen, they that's executives the C suite
Speaker 1: being responsible and looking at the whole business and saying, Okay,
Speaker 1: what do we need to do to make sure one
Speaker 1: year from now we're in pretty good shape, right because
Speaker 1: we still don't have a lot of visibility about next year. Um.
Speaker 1: And so some of them would say, or some would argue,
Speaker 1: right that it's top grasping responsible exactly exactly. And you know,
Speaker 1: it's a pretty big deal because as we've been talking about,
Speaker 1: you know, this year, the five biggest US investment thanks
Speaker 1: you know, they're on taste to generate almost a hundred
Speaker 1: billion dollars in trading revenue for the first time in
Speaker 1: more than time years. And if Bank of America comes
Speaker 1: out and says, you know, bonuses are probably gonna be flat.
Speaker 1: All the other banks they pay close attention to, you know,
Speaker 1: not only surveys about compensation, but also what what competitors
Speaker 1: are doing, because no one wants to be the one
Speaker 1: paying the least, but they also don't want to want
Speaker 1: to be, you know, the entity that's handing out big
Speaker 1: wads of cash when they could get away with paying less.
Speaker 1: And so Bank of America coming out, you know, this
Speaker 1: story could give others cover to pay less than what
Speaker 1: they would have paid. UH and all of us kind
Speaker 1: of I guess based on what we know from surveys.
Speaker 1: You know, there's a compensation of UH consultant Johnson Johnson
Speaker 1: Johnson Associates, sorry, Johnson Associated consultants earlier this month, they
Speaker 1: projected that equity traders, you know, could see bonuses jump
Speaker 1: by bond traders could see them increased by or more.
Speaker 1: If one of the big, biggest wallster banks is going
Speaker 1: to keep it fought, then you know, maybe the survey
Speaker 1: wasn't totally right, but we still don't know. There's still
Speaker 1: a month left in the quarter. In the fourth quarters,
Speaker 1: things could change, um. But yeah, well, and I think
Speaker 1: it's a it's a key point about Bank of America,
Speaker 1: right because they've got a big consumer side. And I
Speaker 1: have to say anecdotally, I know people who have been
Speaker 1: reaching out to some of the big banks for either
Speaker 1: home equity loans or so on, and what they're hearing
Speaker 1: is that they're not doing any kind of new loans,
Speaker 1: so there being a lot more conservative going forward. And
Speaker 1: you do wonder what that means about what they're seeing internally,
Speaker 1: maybe on the consumer side of the business. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying be of a specifically, but just in general, that's
Speaker 1: what I've been hearing. So I don't know, Like, um,
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about an individual, can they lobby for a
Speaker 1: larger payout? Like how does this work? And just got
Speaker 1: about forty seconds here. Yeah, So what we understand is
Speaker 1: that not all of this is set in stone just yet.
Speaker 1: If there are high performers who you know, did really well,
Speaker 1: there's still time for executive to lobby for larger payouts
Speaker 1: to them. But I think that the other big things
Speaker 1: to keep in mind here for Banks America is there's
Speaker 1: a lot of optics here. You know, the economy is struggling.
Speaker 1: Businesses they're shuttering, people are losing their job. Brian wynahand
Speaker 1: the CEO, you know, he recognizes that it probably doesn't
Speaker 1: look great to be handing out huge checks to you know,
Speaker 1: traders at a time like this, and so that's definitely
Speaker 1: something that's going to be coloring any decision. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: safe to say that's left over from the financial crisis, right.
Speaker 1: We saw a lot of sensitivity, um, in terms of
Speaker 1: what the big banks were doing, what Wall Street was doing,
Speaker 1: certainly at the time of the financial crisis, and having
Speaker 1: to kind of either force it reining in because the
Speaker 1: regulators are just trying to not be tone deaf amid
Speaker 1: a really really tough time. Um, listen, thanks so much, Michelle,
Speaker 1: Thank you. Have a great Thanksgiving. Michelle Davis, she's finance
Speaker 1: reporter at Bloomberg News joining us on the phone in Vermont,
Speaker 1: Bloommac Journal. Yeah but you let me drive, No, no, no, honey, please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the riding drivel. I want to drive, Just drive, baby,
Speaker 1: the questions trying. This is the drive to the globe.
Speaker 1: Give me thanks. We'll drying up on Bloomberg Radio. This Indeed,
Speaker 1: we're just about litten under twelve minutes away from the
Speaker 1: closing bell, wrapping up at least the first three days
Speaker 1: of trading in this holiday short and trading week. Of course,
Speaker 1: we come back on Friday for a shortened day as well.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, let's check out the trade back with
Speaker 1: us as Shaun Cruise, manager of Trader Strategy at t
Speaker 1: D a merror trade, he joined us on the phone
Speaker 1: in Florida, Seawan, nice to have you here, um. Just
Speaker 1: looking at some of the notes you shared with us.
Speaker 1: You say, the elevator ride takes a pause this morning,
Speaker 1: but it's still been an impressive week. It really has been,
Speaker 1: hasn't it? It has? And I actually what I thought
Speaker 1: was interesting. I went and looked at some of the
Speaker 1: volumes we were seen, and there is actually some pretty
Speaker 1: decent volumes we were seeing behind these moves, and I
Speaker 1: think that shows that there actually maybe is a little
Speaker 1: bit more staying power to some of the gains that
Speaker 1: we have seen. Because I think that's what everyone's really
Speaker 1: asking themselves, is this is this move higher? Is this
Speaker 1: something that you know we should we should expect to
Speaker 1: be able to maintain or maybe should I be dialing
Speaker 1: back exposure just in case things do turn around rather quickly.
Speaker 1: And you know, they say markets can kind of go
Speaker 1: up up an elevator, but they go down off of cliff.
Speaker 1: I think that's what everyone's asking themselves. But looking at
Speaker 1: the volumes, I think this move seems sustainable at least
Speaker 1: for the time being. Why I think the big thing
Speaker 1: is really markets are looking ahead, and I really think
Speaker 1: the news that Janet Yellen is being considered as considered
Speaker 1: a front runner for the nomination for Chartery secretary really
Speaker 1: gives anything a lot of optimism to markets because the
Speaker 1: assumption also alongside that is that you're not going to
Speaker 1: see Pow go anywhere, and now you're gonna have Janet Yellen,
Speaker 1: who who I think certainly in the past has has
Speaker 1: been a vocal proponent of strong fiscal stimulus from Congress.
Speaker 1: So we will have POW who we got from the minute.
Speaker 1: Today we know that it is going to remain accommodati,
Speaker 1: as they say, to the future, and they're they're willing
Speaker 1: to actually step up and do more in the asset
Speaker 1: purchase side um and and that's something they've all been
Speaker 1: calling for and now it looks like you're also going
Speaker 1: to have a big proponent of accommodative policy on the
Speaker 1: fiscal side as well well. And when you look at things, listen,
Speaker 1: when you invest in the market, there are people who
Speaker 1: play it short term. There people play it long term.
Speaker 1: And I do think about when we get on the
Speaker 1: other side of COVID, do we hopefully have the policies
Speaker 1: in place to create a much more sustainable, enduring economy,
Speaker 1: not one that is just beneficial to Wall Street, but
Speaker 1: to the broader economy, which ultimately means a more prosperous
Speaker 1: economy for everyone. I think so. And I think that
Speaker 1: the thing that I find really interesting to be with
Speaker 1: the phenomics in Janian is as you've heard Pow talk
Speaker 1: about wanting to really focus on more inclusiveness, especially in
Speaker 1: terms of jobs games UM in Janual and certainly echo
Speaker 1: that sentiment. And I think people need to remind her
Speaker 1: her background, her her bread and butter, so always speak,
Speaker 1: is really um as a labor economist. So she is
Speaker 1: very very strong when it comes to labor economics. And
Speaker 1: as we come out of this recovery, UM, what sort
Speaker 1: of of jobs growth for getting? You know, does that
Speaker 1: translate into into well paid jobs with with strong wages,
Speaker 1: and is it going to be more inclusive across the board?
Speaker 1: I think having a labor economists in the as a
Speaker 1: Secretary of Treasury, and then you also have a pal
Speaker 1: who's also indicated he wants to to make sure that's
Speaker 1: the focus of the FED moving forward sort of gives
Speaker 1: you a little bit more facet that may actually be
Speaker 1: um the experience of this recovery when we do get
Speaker 1: to the other side of this. You know, Sean, We're
Speaker 1: just did a story Charlie Pellett and I that basically
Speaker 1: talked about when you know, a lot of the global
Speaker 1: fund managers, they you know, see an end of the pandemic,
Speaker 1: but they differ in terms of strategy on how to
Speaker 1: play it. And there's a lot of discussions about market rotation,
Speaker 1: right And depending on the day, we see market rotation,
Speaker 1: whether it's into some of the value names, whether it's
Speaker 1: continuation finally with small caps um and then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, tech comes roaring back and it's like, wait
Speaker 1: a minute, Okay, so much for market rotation. UM, So
Speaker 1: I don't know, do you have a strategy you know
Speaker 1: that you are kind of thinking about when it comes
Speaker 1: to the COVID recovery and what it will be or
Speaker 1: is it something for a few months now and then
Speaker 1: something else. Well, I think one the first thing everyone
Speaker 1: was asking Solf was is are we going to see
Speaker 1: a true um rotation in the sense of you are
Speaker 1: going to see money flowing out of some of those
Speaker 1: high flying text doctors that have done so well this year,
Speaker 1: come out of observer that pile and go into some
Speaker 1: of the more cyclical or small casts, and we're a
Speaker 1: lot more of the just value oriented place right now. UM.
Speaker 1: And I think what we've learned over the past couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, there was an initial reaction when fights are
Speaker 1: announced their their vaccine where you sort of saw that
Speaker 1: play out on the screens. You saw, um the NAZAC
Speaker 1: actually get hit. But a lot of the cyclical sectors
Speaker 1: and the industries that really have a strong wait into
Speaker 1: some of those more cyclical type names actually did really well.
Speaker 1: I think markets sort of reassessed that, and in the
Speaker 1: sense I'm getting now is look, we're going to hold
Speaker 1: on to some of these techniques. We think they really
Speaker 1: have made some pretty strong progress and use your growth
Speaker 1: getting people on their platform. This year UM, but we're
Speaker 1: also seeing some some attractive valuations in the cyclical sector,
Speaker 1: so it really looks like equities are more generally favored.
Speaker 1: Interstingself worth the money, where's the money going to come from?
Speaker 1: If if you just really look at any any gauge
Speaker 1: of sort of sideline cash, and that could be in
Speaker 1: looking at money markets, look at UM, savings rates, and
Speaker 1: in depository institutions. All of those are incredibly high right now.
Speaker 1: So I think that's where you're going to see UM
Speaker 1: the money flow from. It's going to come out of
Speaker 1: being really truly on the sidelines and m and markets
Speaker 1: and savings accounts. But I also think some of what
Speaker 1: you've seen, just the strong demand flowing into treasury that's
Speaker 1: pushed yields so low, I think you're actually going to
Speaker 1: see that also reverse a little bit. And when you
Speaker 1: start to think of what that means for interest rates
Speaker 1: and yields, it can favor certain areas like banks UM,
Speaker 1: but also there are some interest rates sensitive areas of
Speaker 1: the economy and the market thinking housing automotives that maybe
Speaker 1: are going to be on the other side of that
Speaker 1: coin generally costed more. I think at fair exequities what's
Speaker 1: the story we need to keep a watch on. What's
Speaker 1: the thing that could be, you know, kind of turn
Speaker 1: us upside down again. Here is it rising virus numbers,
Speaker 1: everything taking just a little bit longer than we anticipate.
Speaker 1: What is it? In your view? I think it's everything
Speaker 1: taken a little bit longer than we anticipate. So I'm
Speaker 1: really focused on what sort of a story of the
Speaker 1: fiscal cliff households are going to experience if we aren't
Speaker 1: able to extend some benefits, um, if banks aren't able
Speaker 1: to maybe um renegotiate some of some of these loans
Speaker 1: or some of the deaths that are owed out there,
Speaker 1: you could see a pretty pronounced fiscal cliff coming here
Speaker 1: towards the end of the year. And I think that's
Speaker 1: really going to be something that shapes the recovery. Is
Speaker 1: what sort of a platform are we lifting off from
Speaker 1: and if we don't get I think some some sort
Speaker 1: of extension, if not another round of stimulus, we may
Speaker 1: be coming from a little bit more of a weak
Speaker 1: point that we would like that we would like to
Speaker 1: be when we do try and fire up the economy again,
Speaker 1: and that could that could also really determine the recovery
Speaker 1: we get. So that's really what I'm watching the disco
Speaker 1: cliffs at the end of the year, and we know
Speaker 1: rolling that rock back up the hill is not easy
Speaker 1: and that's for sure. Um. Sean, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Have a good and safe holiday, Happy Thanksgiving. Sean Cruz.
Speaker 1: He is manager of Traders Strategy at t d A
Speaker 1: Marriage Trade, joining us on the phone from Chicago on
Speaker 1: this Wednesday. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
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