WEBVTT - Scientifically Sound Weather Superstitions 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:06.000 Welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind from how Stuff 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:13.560 Works dot com. Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind. 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.520 My name is Robert Lamb, and my name is Julie Douglas. Julie, 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:26.040 what's your favorite non scientific weather forecasting tool one that 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.400 we're going to talk about today? The whole like I 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:31.920 feel it in my bones? That one's an interesting because 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:34.720 I do feel it in my bones and particularly my 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.680 knee if there's there's some sort of weather change coming 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:42.280 you do. So yesterday when that ominous front was rolling 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:46.199 through Atlanta and we were looking out the windows, were 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:49.600 you were your knees like buckling? No, my my right knee, 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.120 which is the one that speaks to me. It was 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.400 fine then, But earlier in the week, like the day 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.720 before and the day before that, that's when I felt 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:58.680 it and I was thinking, oh, well, maybe the thing 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:01.040 that they always say is true, and that means that 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:03.800 some sort of weather front is coming in. Is that right? 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:08.120 Me an old gaming injury. No, it is a dancing injury, 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:12.640 actually dancing in the field. You know, there's a whole 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.360 you know how it goes. I do. My favorite, my 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:21.240 current favorite non scientific weather forecasting tool is it has 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:23.000 to do with the chalk drawings that I do with 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:27.039 my son in the driveway. The more that accumulate, I know, 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:29.600 the more likely it is to rain. So once we 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.880 reached the point where we've covered every foreseeable space with 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.399 scribbles and elephants, I know that it's got to be 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:39.800 about to rain, because it means like two weeks is past. Okay. 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:42.560 I like that. It is a method. It's a method. 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:45.840 You know. It's based on observational data in my surrounding environment, 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:48.720 and I look to it and I make a distinct 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.480 call about what the weather may or may not do. 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.400 And this is one of those things whether that we 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.280 kind of take for granted because we've got the little 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:02.920 Doppler radar systems in place, we can easily access information 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:06.560 about the weather whenever we want. But you kind of, 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.320 if you want to think about whether in really big 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.919 terms and even cosmic terms, you have to go all 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:17.240 the way back to when the atmosphere actually even developed. 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:19.920 And we won't go, you know, too deep into this, 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.280 but just consider for a second that atmosphere that life 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:29.040 depends on is created by life itself. So whether you 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:33.040 have back in the earliest of days when the Earth 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:37.440 formed really just rudimentary. We're talking about hydrogen and helium 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:41.720 hanging out on Earth, and not for very long either, 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:45.320 because hydrogen and helium are fast moving molecules, and at 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.960 that time in Earth's very young history, it was a 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:50.600 hot planet, and so they sped up even more in 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:54.799 the escape out into space. But then you have much 0:02:54.880 --> 0:03:01.079 later volcanic activity happening. And with this volcanic activity happening, 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:05.000 you have steam escaping right from the volcanoes. You have 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:08.200 H two O, you have carbon dioxide, you have ammonia 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.839 which contains nitrogen, and you begin to see this sort 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:15.720 of base stock of the atmosphere building up. And then 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.560 a bit later you have the carbon dioxide being absorbed 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:22.880 by oceans. And this is great because now a bacterium 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.880 comes to comes to be and it gets a lot 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.480 of this energy from the Sun and from the carbon 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:32.320 dioxide in the oceans, and it's byproduct as a result 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:35.120 is oxygen, and all of a sudden boom, you have 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:40.480 the elements for an atmosphere that's right. Currently our atmosphere 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:45.160 consists of seventy percent nitrogen oxygen. Then you have point 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:50.000 nine argon point O three carbon dioxide, and the remaining 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:55.640 point of seven consists of water, vapor, hydrogen, ozone, neon, helium, crypton, 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.720 and xenon. Right. Instead, the more that life developed, the 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:03.520 more the these molecules were created and came to create 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:07.840 this envelope, this atmosphere that we live in, and it 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:11.920 became so supportive that it supported complex life, such as 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:18.160 say humans that became acutely aware of the tides of wind, 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:21.440 of the moon and the sun and began to obsess 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:24.120 about it. Yeah, I mean, indeed, I mean this is 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.840 the movement of our environment. We live in the atmosphere. 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:30.760 We live on the Earth, but we are we're slaves 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.560 of the atmosphere. And the better we can understand it, 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:36.400 the better we can predict it all the better. Now, 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:39.000 how long have we been keeping records of what the 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:41.279 weather is doing, because obviously we've been obsessing over the 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:43.880 weather since time out of mind. But when you look 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:47.240 at observation data, generally you go back to around nine 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:51.760 UM and because that's when observation stations became more uniform 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.240 in the way that they were collecting the data and 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:57.120 measuring it. So if you need to start point like 0:04:57.160 --> 0:05:00.800 that's the easiest place to go to, right, But there 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:04.360 were other systems in place before that, but not as uniform, right, 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.440 not as uniform. For instance, UM the England and Wales 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:11.000 precipitation series, which measures rainfall and snow, that goes all 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:13.840 the way back to seventeen sixty six. The Central England 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:17.520 Temperature series, which covers temperature from the south the Midlands 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:21.440 to Lancashire, goes back to sixteen fifty nine. But again, 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:28.320 nineteen that's generally modern UM forecasting start date. Right now. 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:29.760 A lot of people will point to that date too 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.039 and say, oh, this is when we began to really 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:38.360 UM record information about hurricanes, and maybe that's why it 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:41.360 seems like there are more hurricanes lately because we only 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.560 have this limited data set, which may be a possibility. Yeah, 0:05:44.560 --> 0:05:46.280 I mean that's always a concern when you're looking at 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:50.520 at patterns in our atmosphere and patterns and climate, is 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.680 that the records, the dependable records, only go back so far. 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.719 But again, we have been uh trying to forecast the 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:02.120 weather since uh our earliest days. It's pretty much one 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:06.400 of the earliest sciences tackled by any given culture. Because 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.400 you know, as we after the agrarian revolution especially, we 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:13.800 have crops that need watering life depends on the cycle 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.719 of the rains, the shrink and swell of the local river, 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:20.040 the coming of the monsoons, UH, the advance of dangerous 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:23.360 weather patterns UM you know, and again this is particularly 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:27.880 important for agriculturally bound societies that are depending upon this 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:34.000 artificially maintained version of vegetation that requires water, that requires 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.000 UH and again, like all of us is as a 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.799 slave to the atmosphere UM. And then as we develop 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.640 the surplus of these items, we start warring with each other. 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:46.240 So military navigation also becomes key. You need to know 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:48.400 what the weather is doing because you want to UH, 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:52.320 you want to game your advantages in trying to attack 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.000 or defend yourself from your adversary. And when you take 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.760 that situation on to the ocean, you have even more 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:03.080 can turns to deal with. There are several cases in history, 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:05.800 of course, where see weather has saved a nation from 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:09.479 an invading army, particularly in the case of the Japanese 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:12.920 being saved by the divine wind protecting them from Mongol invasion. 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:17.120 The fate of the Spanish armada headed towards towards England, 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.000 so it becomes important from a military standpoint, to be 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:21.880 able to tell what the weather is going to do. 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.080 It's important from an agricultural standpoint, and then when you 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:28.720 get into trade as well on the seas, you need 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:33.000 to be able to accurately depend on how this uh, 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.280 this this atmosphere is going to behave because on on 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:38.960 the ocean especially, this is a situation where the weather 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:42.280 can see you safely to your harbord destination or it 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.800 can just utterly destroy you and your economy in the 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:49.160 blink of an eye. Right, and before we had accurate 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:52.400 meteorological instruments to help us with this, to you know, 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:56.600 to accurately measure temperature, accurately measure pressure in the air, 0:07:56.720 --> 0:08:00.560 and then compare that to our records over time. What 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.880 can you turn to? You turn to uh idioms, You 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:08.720 turn to time warn lore, um different sayings that are 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:12.760 based on observational data uh that deal with what the 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.280 weather may be about to do. Yeah, and then on 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.800 top of that you have the cultural layer, right, so 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:21.559 you have all of the traditions that are bound up 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:25.880 with weather in the seasons. And so this kind of 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:31.679 guiding principle of you know, sayings based on observational data 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:36.960 sometimes take on more of a superstitious quality, and people 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.120 begin to see these as guiding forces. And that's all 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.000 well and good, except that some are actually helpful and 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:45.840 some are not. So we're going to talk about the 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:50.040 ones that are actually rooted in in the scientific soundness. 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:53.480 Indeed examples where they're scientifically grounded at the route and 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:58.400 the game of cultural telephone has not really lost the 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.760 truth of it over time. All right, So we'll roll 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.080 one out for you. Now. Um, let me get one 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:09.040 of my best sailor voices. I guess here, red sky 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:13.240 in the morning sailors take horn and red sky at 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:17.920 night sailor's delight. There you go. Uh So, of course, 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:21.559 what we're talking about here is that blood red sky, 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.680 that the kind of fucia and red sky co mingling. 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.080 And what's behind it, Well, you're seeing a scattering of 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:33.079 sunlight by small particles, but they're they're suspended in dry, 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.600 dusty air. And that's key here because at sunset, these 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:40.680 conditions imply a zone of dry high pressure between you 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.160 in the sun, and since weather in the mid latitudes 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.320 moves mainly west to east, that means a day of 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:50.480 clear sailing is on the horizon for the next day. 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:56.559 But if you witness the same scattering of red wavelength 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.960 near sunrise, it implies that the calm high pressure zone 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:03.000 and has already passed and that a stormy low pressure 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:06.280 system could move through soon. So again, take the perspective 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.920 of someone who does not have Doppler radar at their disposal. Um, 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:13.000 you know, they're hanging out in the sixteen hundreds. They 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:14.880 need to go out on the boat the next day. 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:18.560 Their livelihood depends on it. These sort of signs and 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:22.360 symbols present to you in the sky would become really important, 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:25.120 but they're not always correct. A lot of this depends 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.559 on where you stand on the earth. Um, okay, because 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:30.920 this is very true, this sort of red sky in 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.520 the morning. Sailors take warning for those who are in 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:37.160 the mid latitudes, which include most of North America, Europe, 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:39.839 and Asia, as well South Africa and the southern halves 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.560 of South American Australia. But if you are in the 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.520 polls or in the tropics, where weather tends to progress 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:50.839 in the opposite direction, you'd want to reverse the saying. Okay, 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.120 it's no cultural right. You go to one part of 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:57.120 the world and they have a totally different thing. Yeah, 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:58.959 and of course that's going to come into play with 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:03.440 the globe try and sailors obviously. Alright, another one, and 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.280 this is what I had not heard of before. Um 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:08.840 if a few different versions of it, now haul out 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:12.880 my sailor voice too. Mackerel sky and Mayor's tale will 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:17.360 make lofty ships carry low sails. Mackerel in the sky, 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:22.000 three days dry, mackerel sky, mackerel sky, never long wed 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:26.440 and never long dry. Now that that I hear that, 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:28.400 and I have no idea what that even means, right, 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:30.640 because I don't know what the mackerel sky is, what 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:32.760 a mayor tail is, And then what does it mean 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:37.040 that ship carries low sails? You're waiting for Grendel to appear, right, Yeah, 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:39.040 Like when I first read it, I thought low sails, 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.800 like maybe that means that there's not enough wind filling 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:45.000 up the sails. But what it's actually saying is if 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.760 you look up in the sky, gentle sailor, and you 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.839 see a fish or a horse tail, Uh, there's a 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:53.760 storm approaching, and you better lower your sails to protect 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:58.280 them from the accompanying high winds Okay, which at least 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.160 to the question, what on earth is acral sky? Well, 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.840 mackerel sky known in Germany and France as sheet clouds. 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:08.760 These are large is a large, spreading assemblage of clouds 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:12.439 that resemble a series of waves or fish scales, with 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:16.280 streaks of blue sky peeking out between the puffs. If 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:18.480 you look at pictures of this that it kind of 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.320 looks marble to a certain extent. And then you have 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:25.160 Mare's tails, which are long thread like cirrus clouds, often 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:30.880 stretched by strong high level winds. And when we're looking 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:33.880 at this, what we're observing, uh, this all consists of 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:38.360 serial cumulus and alto cumulus clouds, which means there's moisture 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:40.959 high up in a cold sky at an altitude of 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.600 around eighteen thousand and thirty thousand feet or six thousand 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:48.400 to ten thousand meters. Uh. Simply put, these are the 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:52.160 cloud systems that develop prior to a storm. Um. And 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:54.400 the blue streaks that you see indicate that the clouds 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:57.880 are breaking up due to instability in the air. So 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.080 why is it correct? Well, again, these are these are 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:03.160 the cloud systems to developed tend to develop prior to 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.440 a storm. Uh. And both the clues, whether you're talking 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:10.520 Mackerel's or mayors suggest an impending storm about six to 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:14.560 eight hours away. If the clouds proceed in approaching warm front, 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:18.280 they'll thicken and the winds will veer from northwesternly to 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:22.720 more southwesternly directions. Now, if not, if the clouds mostly 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.880 consist of bigger, darker auto cumulus clouds, then you're likely 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:31.080 facing better weather in the short term in advance of 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:36.040 a possible cold front and an associated thunderstorms. So as 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.640 a general rule, the mackerel mayor sky thing holds out, 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.960 but it's kind of up in the air, no pun 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:47.240 intended um as to whether you're actually talking about strong 0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:49.800 winds coming in or if you're talking about better weather 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:53.360 in the short term followed by potential thunderstorm. Yeah, and 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.960 again this isn't full proof, but it's the best gus 0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:02.640 based on weather patterns and knowing what happens when conditions change, right, 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.400 And I think people pay attention to these kinds of 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:09.720 forms today because maybe they're they're cloud porn enthusiasts, but 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.440 really people would again stare at the sky in earnest 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.800 to try to figure out what was going to happen. Yeah, 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:18.640 you have to stake your life on something when it 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.800 comes to navigation, and this, some simple idiom are saying, 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.040 is ultimately better than nothing. This is all well and good, 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:28.760 but tell me, Julie about my knee. What is going 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.640 on with my knee? And it speaks to me, well, yeah, 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:35.480 I gotta say you're You're not alone obviously in feeling 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.440 this way. And in fact, Hippocrates, the father of Western medicine, 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:45.080 noticed that certain illnesses seem to worsen under particular weather conditions. 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:48.120 And you've probably heard people say it, you know, time 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:49.920 over time, like I can feel it, I can finish 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:54.360 weather coming. And according to Dr Aditya. Matto, writing for 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.960 n y U longown online Journal of Medicine, quote surveys 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:01.360 have demonstrated the upwards of any percent of patients believe 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.320 that weather plays a role in their arthritic pain. The 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:09.119 question is whether or not this is, in fact, uh 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.320 an actual thing. And I will say that the jury 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.560 is a bit out on this, okay, But you can 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:19.160 look at a two thousand and seven study by Mcallendon 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.440 at all. It's a multi site study which followed two 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:26.440 hundred patients with knee osteoarthritis over different times of the 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:31.760 year and used a well validated paining questionnaire. Called WOMAC 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.280 and data from the U, S, O, A, A, and 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:39.280 UH compared knee paying with different atmospheric conditions throughout the 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:44.040 continental US. What they found was statistically significant positive correlations. 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.800 Now why would this be. It's because your body is 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.840 responding to atmospheric pressure. You don't think about it, right, 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.000 because you don't necessarily feel it, But your bodily fluids 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.360 are trying to exist in a constant state of balance 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:03.440 with ambient air pressure. So as the barometer falls, as 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.880 with what happens with an approaching storm, your tissues can 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:10.000 swell in response, and that can irritate nerve endings and 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:13.160 cause your pain level to wratch it up a bit. Okay, 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.960 problem here is that that swelling happens on such a 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.600 small scale that it's it's difficult to objectively detect and 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.000 measure it. So researchers have to rely on people's subjective 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:26.840 accounts of pain, which, as we know, vary and they're 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:30.720 not always reliable. And there's also the psychological factor of priming. Right, 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:34.360 So you see approaching storm, maybe you start to feel achy. 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.720 Maybe you're paying just a little more attention to that 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.560 ever present condition, right, right, So that's not to say 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.240 there's not something there, it's just the jury is truly 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:47.200 still out on that. However, those who suffer from migraines 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.600 may have a level of sensitivity to their environment that 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.560 gives them a leg up on predicting the weather. And 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:57.440 according to Dr Caroline Bernstein, who is the clinical director 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:01.520 of the Harvard Medical Faculty Physicians comprehens of Headache Center, quote, 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:05.080 it maybe that people who get migraines are very susceptible 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:09.919 to any fluctuation, whether it's a weather change, foods, sleep, 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:12.880 or stress. Okay, well, I will keep that in mind 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.280 the next time I feel my knee talking to me. Yeah, 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:20.159 just see if your head hurts. Alright. That brings us 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:22.960 to our next one. This one is cold as the 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:27.879 Night when the stars shine bright, also known as clear 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:32.720 moon frost soon. So what is this one? That's basically 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.440 things basically saying, hey, if you have a clear sky, 0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:37.800 it's going to be a cold or night, right, pretty 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.840 straightforward And and really the explanation of this one is 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:45.359 pretty straightforward too. So it gets into the basic realities 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.439 of how the sun heats our world. The Sun emits 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.359 a vast amount of energy travels across space in the 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.800 form of short wave radiation, and only a tiny portion 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:58.800 of this power actually reaches the surface. Um Most of 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.600 the atmosphere, fear is directly heated by solar radiation, but 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:06.920 rather by the terrestrial radiation that the planet itself emits. 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:12.040 So during the day, the Sun's shortwave radiation is absorbed 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:15.119 by the Earth and converted into heat. The examples I 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:18.119 often go back to when explaining this are, Okay, you 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:20.440 have a fried egg and you're gonna cook it on 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:23.000 a sidewalk in New York because you need some sort 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:24.760 of visible display of how hot it is for the 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:28.400 local news. Well, it's the heat emitted by the pavement 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:32.840 that's doing the frying, not the sun above. And that's 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:37.199 basically the reality of heat on our world. Also, you 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:40.400 have a mountain climber. They're climbing up a mountain they're 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:45.760 in encountering increasingly colder conditions as they ascend, despite effectively 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:49.840 moving closer to the sun. Okay, so when the sun sets, 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:53.840 the planet begins radiating this heat at various rates depending 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:57.359 on the materials involved, and lacking clouds to capture that 0:18:57.400 --> 0:19:00.480 heat and hold it in place, the surface and atmosphere 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:06.199 grow increasingly colder through radiative heat loss. So essentially, again, 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:09.679 solar energy coming down hitting the Earth, it's emitted as 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.520 terrestrial radiation, and if there aren't clouds up there to 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:14.560 keep it and contain it, it just goes off into 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:17.120 space again. So yes, indeed, if you have a night 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:19.760 with no cloud cover, it is going to be colder 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.080 because you're going to have more heat loss. That makes 0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.200 sense because the clouds are kind of like a blanket 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:27.080 on the night exactly. Yeah, it's like sleeping without your blanket. 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:30.640 You're gonna wake up a little chili without your blank eyes. 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.400 All right. The next one doesn't have a neat little 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:37.520 rhyme to it, So attempt something crickets a bit chirpen. 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:43.480 The sun must be bourbon, Okay, I like it an Yeah, 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:47.440 so crickets. It turns out chirp faster and warmer conditions, 0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:52.800 and more slowly as the air turns more frigid. And 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:56.280 this is particularly true in the species of campus full 0:19:56.320 --> 0:20:01.160 tony and uh you probably have you know you grew 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.399 up in a rural area right as a youngster, as 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:06.440 did I. And that's one of those features of nighttime, 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:10.120 especially a summer. You hear that chirping, And it's kind 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:13.200 of amazing to me that this isn't something that I 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.960 knew as folklore. Yeah, me neither. Despite just yeah that 0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.359 that cacophony of insect noises that you deal with growing 0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:22.760 up in a rural environment. So you're probably wondering, how 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:26.199 can I calculate this air pressure because that's actually what 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:31.359 they're reflecting here. Well, there's edition of the American Naturalists 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:37.120 by A Dolbear who created this formula T equals fifty 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:42.080 plus n minus four divided by four, where t equals 0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:46.680 temperature f and n equals chirp rate per minute. And 0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:49.840 thankfully we have the Old Farmer's Almanac to help us 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:55.639 convert cricket chirps to degrees fahrenheit by counting the number 0:20:55.720 --> 0:21:00.240 of chirps in fourteen seconds and then adding fort to 0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:02.920 get the temperature. Okay, that sounds a bit easier, right, 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:09.880 So example, thirty chirps plus forty equals seventy degrees. So 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:13.399 why is this important? Well, because listening eve's dropping on 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:16.199 the mating calls of crickets can actually give you an 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:18.480 idea whether or not a warm front is coming or 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:22.840 a cold fronts coming. But I gotta tell you it 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:26.200 has its limitations because it's only accurate down to fifty 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:30.560 five degrees fahrenheit. Uh. Any lower than that than the 0:21:30.560 --> 0:21:38.560 crickets take off, they're not really interested in hanging out me. Yeah. Well, 0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:42.679 you mentioned the Farmer's Almanac there, and and I have 0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:45.080 I have to ask, like, what is the deal with 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:47.800 the farm Farmers Alminate? Because it's one of those books 0:21:47.880 --> 0:21:50.480 that has always been in the background in my life. 0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:53.280 I think my grandfather had would have a copy setting around, 0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.200 and I may have like lead through it once or 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.720 twice as a kid. And you see it, you know, 0:21:57.720 --> 0:21:59.679 pretty much in any bookstore you go to, that will 0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:03.040 be Armer's Almanac there. And I really have no idea 0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:04.879 exactly what to do. I just always assumed it was 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:07.159 just a whole bunch of old wives tales and a 0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:10.000 little you know, idioms and sayings about the weather. Look 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:12.199 at the size of a wooly caterpillar to tell what 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:13.880 the rain is going to do, that sort of thing. 0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:16.640 And I've never really paid it much attention beyond that. Yeah, 0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:19.199 I remember when I was a little it was usually 0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.880 a fixture in my relatives bathrooms. Right, it was good 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:26.040 bathroom reading, and it turns out that there are two 0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:31.639 different farmers almanacs. Okay, they're competing. There's the Farmers Almanac 0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:35.240 and the Old Farmers Almanac, founded in eighteen twelve and 0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:39.600 seventeen ninety two, respectively, and they both rely on proprietary 0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:44.440 formulas for their weather prognostications and how stuff works. Actually 0:22:44.440 --> 0:22:47.080 has an article on this. Kate Kirshner wrote it, and 0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:51.000 she says, quote, the Farmer's Almanac uses mathematical and astronomical 0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:56.240 formulas which are passed along from one anonymous prognosticator to another, 0:22:57.440 --> 0:23:00.679 and this almanac formula is really just entrusted to what 0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:04.600 they say is one living being, a being, not not 0:23:04.880 --> 0:23:08.439 not a person, not a human, but a being. Yeah, okay, 0:23:08.720 --> 0:23:10.159 well that makes me think it might just be like 0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:15.520 a centaur or something. Right. Wouldn't that be wonderful if 0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:18.960 it is a centaur and it is a living being? Right? Whatever? 0:23:19.000 --> 0:23:24.240 This living being is, this weather forecaster since the publication's 0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:30.080 inception has gone by the pseudonym Caleb weather Be And uh, 0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:34.199 they keep pretty mum about Caleb about who he or 0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:37.600 she is. They just confirmed that this person exists. That's 0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:40.439 the only thing they'll confirm. Now, the Old Farmer's Almanac 0:23:40.680 --> 0:23:43.560 relies on a theory that weather is a result of 0:23:43.640 --> 0:23:46.159 magnetic storms on the sun surface, and the forecast a 0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:50.480 predicted based on a formula that is locked away in 0:23:50.560 --> 0:23:55.199 a black box at the headquarters. Wow, let's see, I 0:23:55.200 --> 0:23:58.199 had no idea it was this kind of secrety and 0:23:58.240 --> 0:24:02.080