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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Even if you didn't read the eight hundred and thirty pages.

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Speaker 2: It had a lovely purple lavender cover and you could

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Speaker 2: walk around campus toading your Absfeld and rogueoff and you

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Speaker 2: get cool points just for that. Joining us now. One

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Speaker 2: of the Foundation academics we have on our international macroeconomics

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Speaker 2: Maurice Obsfeld. He's with the Peterson Institute with Posen and Blanchard.

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Speaker 2: He is at Berkeley forever and always professor. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for joining us. What I see in percolate

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Speaker 2: right now, Maurice Sobsfeld, is real tensions about supply lines

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Speaker 2: falling apart, supply lines fragile because of tariffs, the interstitial,

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Speaker 2: the interstitual.

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Speaker 3: Wiring of our trade system. Is it broken.

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Speaker 4: It's not broken yet, but it's understrained. It's understrained because

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Speaker 4: of tariffs. It's understrained because of geopolitical tensions. It's understrained

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Speaker 4: because of the trade war. And we can see this

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Speaker 4: and the threats flying back between President Trump and China

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Speaker 4: right now over everything from shipping to rar earths to

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Speaker 4: cooking oil.

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Speaker 2: There just seems to be two Americas, one affected by

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Speaker 2: goods and trade worry and angst, in another a financial boom.

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Speaker 2: Like Morgan Stanley, can we exist like this?

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, the US economy has become increasingly financialized

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Speaker 4: over the decades, and you know, at some level, the

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Speaker 4: US is the world's banker at this point. And interestingly,

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Speaker 4: finance hasn't seen the kind of backlash that we've seen

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Speaker 4: against trade. You know, trade is blamed for deficits with

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Speaker 4: other countries, it's blamed for the declient of manufacturing. You know,

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Speaker 4: we don't see people wanting to curb financial transactions. Quite

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Speaker 4: the contrary, we're seeing deregulation stable coins and the like.

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Speaker 4: So there really really is a divorce between those two sectors.

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Speaker 4: And you know, the question I have is can that

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Speaker 4: go on forever?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Or will the trade tensions eventually feed into the financial sphere?

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Speaker 5: I think they will.

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Speaker 6: And Professor, that's kind of where we are right now.

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Speaker 6: The folks that are supporting tariffs. They say, we are

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Speaker 6: not seeing.

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Speaker 7: The economy slow down.

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Speaker 6: We recently had a very strong third quarter GDP print,

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Speaker 6: not seeing a material increase in inflation data, although we

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Speaker 6: are now lacking data because of the shutdown. So again

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Speaker 6: the supporters of tariffs are saying, we're just not seeing

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Speaker 6: those economic headwinds coming from tariffs. So my question to

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Speaker 6: you is is it just a matter of time or

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Speaker 6: are corporations adapting?

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Speaker 5: Oh? I think it's a matter of time.

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Speaker 4: There is some adaptation, of course, as corporations look for

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Speaker 4: cheaper suppliers.

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Speaker 5: But you know, just look at what we've seen.

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Speaker 4: We have not seen any material fall in the dollar

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Speaker 4: prices that foreign countries charge for US. We've seen some

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Speaker 4: limited increase in consumer prices of imported goods and close

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Speaker 4: substitutes for those imported goods, but not enough to offset

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Speaker 4: the tariff. But we've also seen substantial revenue coming into

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Speaker 4: the treasury from tariffs, which is being paid by our importers.

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Speaker 5: So how do you square that circle?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 4: You square it with a hit to profitability and with

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Speaker 4: the observation that firms have been swallowing these tariffs to

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Speaker 4: some extent while they wait for tariff policy to stabilize

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Speaker 4: and figure out what it's going to be going forward

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Speaker 4: now that we kind of know where we are with tariffs.

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Speaker 4: To some extent, I think firms are going to be

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Speaker 4: adjusting by passing those cost increases on.

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Speaker 2: Professor Obsfeld synthesize here, say the work of Douglas or

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Speaker 2: when at Dartmouth with down the hall from you at Berkeley,

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Speaker 2: Barry Kengreen, and this whole trade up set and the

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Speaker 2: risk to the dollar. This goes back to Obsfeld, Rogueoff,

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Speaker 2: and frankly back to Mundell. I'm assuming you don't have

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Speaker 2: a fear of the gloom crew on a dollar.

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Speaker 3: Is that correct? The gloom crew?

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Speaker 4: You know, I'm worried long term about the status of

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Speaker 4: the dollar. I think they're very strong forces keeping the

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Speaker 4: dollar in the prime position it's in in global markets

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Speaker 4: as the world's currency. But foreign countries are increasingly worried

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Speaker 4: about the kind of course of punitive actions that this

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Speaker 4: administration has been taken to enforce its will globally, not

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Speaker 4: just in the trade sphere, but looking at issues like

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Speaker 4: internal politics. You know, we see this across the board

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Speaker 4: for positive and negative. The Treasury right now is bailing

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Speaker 4: out Argentina for largely political reasons. So I think I

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Speaker 4: think the bottom line is that that foreign countries no

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Speaker 4: longer trust the US as a responsible steward of the

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Speaker 4: global economy are going to seek to decouple and sure

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Speaker 4: themselves against policy volatility emanating from right.

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Speaker 2: Here, Mars, I gotta get a breaking news, Paul. Can

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Speaker 2: I ask a rude question of Professor Hobsfeld? Yeah, professor,

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Speaker 2: and iiching green question for you, Maurice Hobsfeld on gold

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Speaker 2: at four dollars announce?

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Speaker 3: What would Barry say?

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Speaker 4: I'm not going to speak for Barry, my good and

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Speaker 4: longtime friend, but I think he would say that.

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Speaker 5: I guess I am speaking for him. I want to

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Speaker 5: speak for myself.

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Speaker 4: Barry and I agree about a lot of things, not everything.

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Speaker 4: You know, gold is a bell weather of fear, and

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Speaker 4: the escalation in its price is far beyond what you

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Speaker 4: would expect to see coming from inflationary fears. Although I

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Speaker 4: think that's part of the picture. I think it be

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Speaker 4: tokens a shift into something that is perceived as safer

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Speaker 4: than the dollar and not subject to.

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Speaker 5: Extra territorial action by the US.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, we've seen the escalation and price

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Speaker 4: We've also seen increasing purchases of gold by emerging market

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Speaker 4: central banks. A lot of that is China, but not

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Speaker 4: all of it is China, Okay, So that I think

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Speaker 4: tells us something.

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Speaker 5: About the fear out there.

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Speaker 4: And you know, the escalation and bitcoin prices is a

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Speaker 4: similar phenomenon.

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Speaker 3: Professor got to leave it there too short a visit.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: Thank you to you and the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen,

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Speaker 2: Professor Blanchard and others for just great support of what

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Speaker 2: we do. Marky Sobsfeld forever from the University of California

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Speaker 2: at Berkeley.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: Are listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Chris Whalen is definitive on the American financial system. I'm

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Speaker 2: standing or surrounded by dinosaurs in Houston, and I'm going

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Speaker 2: I think I got Chris Whalen in a couple of days.

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Speaker 2: Must listen for Global Wall Street, he joins us. Now

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Speaker 2: I can't say enough about his value to the American

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Speaker 2: financial system, his history, his books, and also his work

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Speaker 2: at Whaling Global Advisors. Chris, I'm just going to cut

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Speaker 2: to the chase. First Brands try Coller have a Are

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Speaker 2: we living two thousand and six?

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Speaker 8: Chris Whalen, Yeah, we're kind of repeating the same mistakes.

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Speaker 8: You know, if you don't have a trustee to hold

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Speaker 8: the paper, then you have double pledges of collateral. Remember

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Speaker 8: bear Stearns. Yeah, I'm familiar, same same things. So it's

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Speaker 8: called fraud. And you know, the terms on a lot

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Speaker 8: of deals in the past ten fifteen years have loosened

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Speaker 8: in favor of the issuers to the disadvantage of investors.

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Speaker 8: And First Brand is a case in point.

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Speaker 2: Chris Wayman, there was no other question at my CFA

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Speaker 2: meeting in Houston, no other question. What's the contagion You're

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Speaker 2: expert at the history of this. Come on, Is it

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Speaker 2: like Continental Illinois? Is it like bear Stearns? As you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: what's a contagion factor? In October of twenty twenty.

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Speaker 8: Five, it's brewing. We won't really see it until we do.

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Speaker 3: So.

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Speaker 8: The commercial side of the equation is where the problems

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Speaker 8: are for the banks, right now they are trying to

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Speaker 8: hide them as best they can. We've just changed the

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Speaker 8: accounting rules for loan modifications, by the way, so if

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Speaker 8: it pays for twelve months, we pretend the loan was

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Speaker 8: never modified. How cool is that? And I think that

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Speaker 8: the industry of the rate laters are all walking past

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Speaker 8: the graveyard because private equity, commercial real estate, all of

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Speaker 8: these sectors are still having significant problems. On the other hand,

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Speaker 8: consumer is quiet. We've been releasing reserves and reducing provisions

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Speaker 8: for loan loss on the consumer side because there's nothing

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Speaker 8: happening yet that may come next year. But the commercial

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Speaker 8: side is where the action is right now, Tom.

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Speaker 6: Chris, I've learned a new term, I guess in the

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Speaker 6: last few weeks, and that is the basement trade. Where

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Speaker 6: is my understanding is investors are saying, I'm worried about

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Speaker 6: all this government spending around the world, So maybe I

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Speaker 6: don't want to own government securities like currencies, maybe even

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Speaker 6: the government debt, and that includes the US stuff.

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Speaker 7: Maybe I'll buy some other stuff like gold. What do

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Speaker 7: you make of that?

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Speaker 8: I've been telling my readers to put at least ten

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Speaker 8: to fifteen percent of their total allocation in the gold

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Speaker 8: for most of this year, and I think it's solely

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Speaker 8: beginning to start for the simple reason that there isn't

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Speaker 8: a lot of deliverable supplying gold. People are worried about deficits.

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Speaker 8: They are worried about the dollar, and I think they're

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Speaker 8: right to do so. The dollar is probably going to

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Speaker 8: continue to go down. We have structural problems in this country.

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Speaker 8: You notice Chairman Powell is talking about continuing to shrink

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Speaker 8: the balance sheet.

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Speaker 3: Why.

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Speaker 8: As Bill Nelson at Bank Policy Institute wrote this week,

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Speaker 8: the Fed funds market may collapse thanks to the big

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Speaker 8: balance sheet. So we have a lot of issues. In

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Speaker 8: the background. The markets look great AI, everybody's still making

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Speaker 8: tons of money. But in the background, people are worried

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Speaker 8: because when you have these old time highs one after another,

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Speaker 8: they tend to not be confirmed after a while.

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Speaker 2: For Global Wall Street Worldwide on YouTube, across all of

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Speaker 2: our audio product Christopher Whalan joins us his one volume

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Speaker 2: on the American Financial system, my book of the Year.

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Speaker 2: Ages ago were begging him, He's going to put a book.

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Speaker 2: DiCaprio skeed.

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Speaker 7: Oh, I got to signed up and continue with Chris Whaley.

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Speaker 3: Chris talked to us.

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Speaker 6: About liquidity in the marketplace, and I'm thinking about not

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Speaker 6: so much as stock market, but just kind of across

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Speaker 6: the fixed income space, maybe the currency space.

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Speaker 7: Is that a worry for you, Yes.

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Speaker 3: Very much. So.

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Speaker 8: It's almost like we're back to December twenty eighteen when

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Speaker 8: Jerome Powell almost ran the ship aground. You recall they

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Speaker 8: pivoted very quickly in January nineteen and started easing. That's

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Speaker 8: when they went to this ample reserve policy that they've

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Speaker 8: had since then.

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Speaker 3: And I think that what we're worried about.

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Speaker 8: Is that the model that the FED uses to judge

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Speaker 8: whether liquidity is adequate or not is based on GDP,

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Speaker 8: which has nothing to do with anything. Liquidity is highly compartmentalized.

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Speaker 8: It does not flow one way in another, so you

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Speaker 8: really don't know until there's not enough.

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Speaker 5: Chris, I think that's where we are today.

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Speaker 2: I gotta get two things in here. It's too important.

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Speaker 2: Sweeney's lined up. Sweeny's got notes this morning for Chris Whalen.

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Speaker 2: I have Christopher Waller tomorrow. What is Chris Whalen's question

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Speaker 2: for Governor Waller A presultive chairman, What's your question?

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Speaker 3: Whalen?

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Speaker 8: He was very bullish on shrinking the balance sheet earlier

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Speaker 8: this year. Ask him how he feels now? Ask him

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Speaker 8: where round is now?

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Speaker 3: I don't have to work.

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Speaker 8: We're landing in the fall. We don't have an altimeter. Okay,

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Speaker 8: where is the ground? Does he know? That's the key question?

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Speaker 5: Broll.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll try to get to that again.

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Speaker 2: You're going to see that in the nine o'clock hour

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Speaker 2: tomorrow with Christopher wall in his speech at the Council

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Speaker 2: and Foreign Relations, and then I will grill him as

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Speaker 2: best I can. He's really quite He's a prodigious intellect, folks,

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Speaker 2: particularly in the game theory of central banking.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Chris, let's go to it right now.

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Speaker 2: I suggest that the major banks, led by JP Morgan

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Speaker 2: and Bank of America literally are hiding how proud comfitable

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Speaker 2: they are. In the Whalen history, back to Granpa Whale

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Speaker 2: great great Grandpa Whalen was with Alexander Hamilton. A few

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Speaker 2: years ago, Chris Whalen described the profitability of this modern

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Speaker 2: era of ginormous big banks.

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Speaker 8: I'm not sure that they're that much more profitable today

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Speaker 8: than they have been in the past. Asset returns are

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Speaker 8: barely one percent. They are giving back capital because they're underutilized.

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Speaker 8: Why are they lending all this money to non bank,

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Speaker 8: non depository institutions because loan demand otherwise is pretty slack.

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Speaker 8: You know, deposits are growing twice as fast as demand

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Speaker 8: for loans. So hopefully when rates fall, we'll see volumes

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Speaker 8: pick up a bit like last September. This September two,

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Speaker 8: by the way, is going to turn out to be

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Speaker 8: a very good month for banks and non banks. But

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Speaker 8: you know, the bottom line is that there are so

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Speaker 8: many alternatives to traditional banks now that have been spawned

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Speaker 8: in the equity markets and are funded with actity and debt,

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Speaker 8: that you have plenty places to go spawn.

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Speaker 3: Yes, exactly, only way they would say spawn, private credit.

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Speaker 7: Was spawned exactly. Hey, here, get your thoughts on the

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Speaker 7: housing market.

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Speaker 6: Broady defined here that affordability issue continues to be a huge,

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Speaker 6: huge issue for people, particularly young people. I got a

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Speaker 6: mortgage rate still got a six handle out there, and

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Speaker 6: I've got housing costs that are fifty percent since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 7: This is a problem, isn't it.

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Speaker 8: It is, But it's a problem that's going to be fixed.

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump is going to goos to housing market with

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Speaker 8: his friend Bill Polti. They want to support homebuilders at

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Speaker 8: a time when the homebuilders have already got too much inventory.

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Speaker 8: Supply has caught up with demand. And remember the prediction

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Speaker 8: of my good friend Stan Middleman, the founder of Freedom

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Speaker 8: Mortgage Misery on the eighths. I think we see a

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Speaker 8: maxi home price reset in twenty twenty eight. If you've

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Speaker 8: got that high coupon mortgage, wait a little bit and

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Speaker 8: maybe go into a floater, and then you'll be able

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Speaker 8: to refinance it much lower in a couple of years.

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Speaker 6: So, Chris, I guess the question is that there seems

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Speaker 6: to be a housing shortage in this country.

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Speaker 7: I'm not sure how he got there. How do you

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Speaker 7: think that happened in.

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Speaker 8: Some parts of the country, not everywhere here in New York,

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Speaker 8: in the Blue States where we don't build. Yes, it's

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Speaker 8: astounding to me because this is a market that had

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Speaker 8: very poor volumes before COVID, but the prices keep going

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Speaker 8: up because nobody's building houses. Down south, we have the

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Speaker 8: opposite problem. Chris Carolina is in Texas, Florida. We are

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Speaker 8: up to our ear lobes and.

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Speaker 2: Support Michael Barrowe's equal time. Chris Whalen quickly here every

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Speaker 2: Brady undergraduate wants to know when's the new book come out?

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Speaker 8: Well, the second edition should have inflated is out, of course,

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Speaker 8: and I did that for you. David Kotok did the introduction,

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Speaker 8: by the way, very cool, and we're working on a

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Speaker 8: gold book for next year, which will be very good.

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Speaker 3: You'll probably talk to Iike agreed. That's the way. Chris

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Speaker 3: Whalen rules. Christopher Whalen, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: I can't say enough, folks the importance of his skepticism

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Speaker 2: about some of the verbiage of our financial system.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: She had a.

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Speaker 2: Huge impact the last time she was on. Fatima Bulani

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Speaker 2: joins us. She is at City Group and she is

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Speaker 2: hard wired into the technology and software industry. Fatima Bulani

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Speaker 2: joins us for an important brief this morning. Burying your

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Speaker 2: note Fatima work. Not only in the first inning, the

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Speaker 2: guy the third batters of the ondeck circle. You've got

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Speaker 2: six percent of software spend is on AI. Where is

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Speaker 2: that software spend on AI in one year, in three years,

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Speaker 2: in five years.

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Speaker 9: Well, it's it's a race to catch up here. You know,

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Speaker 9: we have the pleasure and privilege of running our CIO

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Speaker 9: survey every quarter, so excellent time series data and information

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Speaker 9: about you know, an average organization and very large organizations

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Speaker 9: appetite and proclivity to invest in particular parts of their

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Speaker 9: IT infrastructure. And you know, I think the trends we

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Speaker 9: are seeing as we're inching closer and closer to having AI,

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Speaker 9: generative AI and related efforts to operationalize this concept of

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Speaker 9: AI really showing up in the budgets and the wallet

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Speaker 9: and the wallet allocation, and so you know, I think

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Speaker 9: it's it's tough tough to sort of, you know, look

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Speaker 9: into the crystal valid say that six percent is going

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Speaker 9: to become twelve percent in the next twelve months. But

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Speaker 9: the infrastructure spending and the velocity with which we're seeing

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Speaker 9: so much capital being thrown at, you know.

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Speaker 5: Enabling the AI enterprise, you know, it's.

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Speaker 9: Only a matter of time till organizations catch up, and really,

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Speaker 9: you know, one of the gating factors, and ultimately there

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Speaker 9: are several gating factories. There's a lot of spaghetti being

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Speaker 9: thrown on the wall way zat Black.

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Speaker 2: Recking and VIDIA forty billion today a small number moments ago,

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Speaker 2: Oracle collaborates with Microsoft to enhance supply chain efficiency.

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Speaker 7: There you go, I have no I no idea.

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Speaker 3: Only Fatima knows what that is.

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Speaker 6: Fatima, I know in your survey here the next twelve

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Speaker 6: month IT budget growth weakens with the US and EMEA

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Speaker 6: below historical levels.

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Speaker 7: Why is that? Do you think? You know, I think the.

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Speaker 9: Inference there is there's most likely some share shift happening. Right,

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Speaker 9: Most I organizations have the unfortunate uh decision and dilemma of,

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Speaker 9: you know, keeping the lights on. So you have to

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Speaker 9: invest in existing uh in your existing footprint of it

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Speaker 9: UH infrastructure and capabilities just to keep the lights on.

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Speaker 9: But then at the same time you have to sort

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Speaker 9: of invest where the puck is going. Look at me

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Speaker 9: mixing my metaphors, right, and so that's very like, yeah,

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Speaker 9: that's the partial Canadian and me talking, and so really

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Speaker 9: it's uh, you know this this notion and this inference

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Speaker 9: of we're going to see some wallet share shifting in

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Speaker 9: terms of allocation and right, so, uh, how how do

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Speaker 9: you avoid starving?

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Speaker 6: Uh?

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Speaker 9: You know, initiatives that help keep the lights on in

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Speaker 9: the organization whilst also straddling this executive and boardroom mandate

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Speaker 9: of we have to do something with AI, we have

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Speaker 9: to invest in AI, we have to create capabilities and operationalize. Uh,

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Speaker 9: these AI efforts to build busines, this value and delivered

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Speaker 9: business value.

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Speaker 6: It seems like all Tom and I talk about all

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Speaker 6: day is AI. But your survey indicates that cybersecurity remains

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Speaker 6: the number one investment priority.

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Speaker 7: Talk to us about that.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I rtially joke that once cybersecurity falls off the

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Speaker 9: number one perch, you know, wake me up when that happens.

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Speaker 9: Because this has been a very very consistent theme and

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Speaker 9: trend in over a decade of survey results and survey

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Speaker 9: work that we've done. Right that being said, you know,

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Speaker 9: cybersecurity has become this this snowballing, this juggernaut of a

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Speaker 9: priority for boardrooms and now especially now because you're a

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Speaker 9: tech surface, has you know, effectively metastasized, right, I mean

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Speaker 9: back in the nineteen nineties, it was your corporate network

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Speaker 9: and the Internet you just had to protect. You know,

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Speaker 9: you just have to bear your corporate net the work

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Speaker 9: against the Internet. And now it's cloud, it's remote workers,

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Speaker 9: it's you know, your distributed offices, it's AI, right, and

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Speaker 9: so the new blind spots, the exposure, the susceptibility of

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Speaker 9: what used to be a pretty tightly controlled network is

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Speaker 9: completely unfurled, right, and so you kind of get the

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Speaker 9: dynamic of your entire attack surface not only has increased,

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Speaker 9: it's also changed and it's so much more nuances. And

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Speaker 9: so that's why, you know, cybersecurity is sort of going

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Speaker 9: to be the perennial number one spot. And you know,

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Speaker 9: one of the things that you sort of asked me

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Speaker 9: earlier was, well, what's stopping organizations from taking six percent

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Speaker 9: of their IT budgets allocated towards AI initiatives? The twenty

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Speaker 9: twenty five fifty cybersecurity is one of those reasons.

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Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, Fatima, that's just brilliant Mark Bergenfolks his brilliant effort.

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Speaker 2: I read a cover to cover like comments, subscribe Mark

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Speaker 2: Bergen's Definitive book on YouTube. Thank you for that, He

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Speaker 2: writes this morning for Bloomberg news Fatima, Microsoft cuts forth

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Speaker 2: n scaled deal with Texas AI data center they're going

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Speaker 2: to build. I love this, Paul, thank you for Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: AI n scale two hundred and forty megawatts of power.

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Speaker 2: The site will deploy one hundred and four thousand new

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Speaker 2: Nvidia Corp.

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Speaker 3: Chips. The rest of it I don't understand.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Fatima, how does a pro like you who's

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Speaker 2: worried about cash flow at Microsoft, how do you bring

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Speaker 2: in this utility constraint that Mark Bergen writes about this morning.

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Speaker 7: You know, it's a fair question.

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Speaker 9: And the way I will frame this for you is,

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Speaker 9: you know, organizations are principally trying to solve for productivity gains, right,

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Speaker 9: you know, business value, productivity gains, et cetera. So a

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Speaker 9: lot of what we're seeing on the software side in

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Speaker 9: terms of the monetization question, right, we're seeing the picks

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Speaker 9: and shovels trade in the AI trade opportunity on fire.

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Speaker 9: It is absolutely in fuego.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 9: And you know one of the main overhands on the

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Speaker 9: aggregate enterprise software space is when are software vendor is

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Speaker 9: going to get paid for all this stuff? Right?

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Speaker 2: Right? Okay, we got to go Fatima, that's precisely the

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Speaker 2: worry that Lisa Matail has about AI.

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Speaker 3: Do you worry that the software vendors will get paid?

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Speaker 9: You know, we think software vendors are going to get paid,

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Speaker 9: but it's important and critical to pick your spots.

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Speaker 7: Uh.

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Speaker 9: You know, we like to bifurcate the entire enterprise software

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Speaker 9: space into application and infrastructure, and we're firm believers that

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Speaker 9: the infrastructure software space is going to be the more

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Speaker 9: insulated of the two you have. I'm certain you've heard

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Speaker 9: the terms of vibe coding and large language models, you know,

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Speaker 9: chasing application software companies, you know, you know, out of

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Speaker 9: the room, right, And so there's a general view and

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Speaker 9: we'd subscribe to this as well that if you provide tooling, software,

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Speaker 9: plumbing and tooling that's sort of behind the scenes, that's

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Speaker 9: a better position to be in terms of monetizing and commercials.

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Speaker 3: Paul's yelling at me, go to Bar Fatima.

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Speaker 2: I got twenty seconds your single best buy right now

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Speaker 2: at City Group.

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Speaker 9: A big fan of a company called Rubric RBRK. Not

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Speaker 9: one that's on everyone's lips. It's not one that's talked

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Speaker 9: about very much, but in an era where data is

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Speaker 9: going to explode. The fidelity and integrity of your data

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Speaker 9: is going to determine how good your AI applications are.

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Speaker 9: Oh and by the way, if there's a cyber attack

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Speaker 9: that happens and you have to recover all this business data,

439
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 9: rubric is the play Ruber way to play RBRK.

440
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: Is that right?

441
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a that's right.

442
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 6: Sixteen billion dollar market cap stocks up about twenty percent

443
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 6: year to date, is doubled over the past twelve months.

444
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 7: So it's been a oh good and a good one there.

445
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, she didn't call me on this Fatima, let me

446
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 2: down and didn't call me up a stupid bye.

447
00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 3: This good morning. Palo Alto, yep three employed a stronger

448
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: for the team of belining jes love it. Thank you

449
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 3: so much. She is with City Group. Stay with us.

450
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

451
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

452
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

453
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

454
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

455
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

456
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: Time out for the daily look. It is the front

457
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 2: pages around the world.

458
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 7: Do we thank Lisa for the newspaper.

459
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: Tell me there's nothing on the banks.

460
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 10: No, nothing on the bank we got. Okay, have you

461
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 10: gotten those annoying scam text messages?

462
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 7: I know it's like page Tim.

463
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 3: Cook, I know you're listening.

464
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 7: Do something, fix it, fix it.

465
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 10: Okay, Well we now know who's behind this. So this

466
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 10: is in the Wall Street Journal. Really interesting. The Department

467
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 10: of Homeland Security is saying criminal organizations in China have

468
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 10: made more than a billion dollars in the last three

469
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 10: years through those test mech text scams. They have sim farms,

470
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 10: that's how they do a lot of it. They use

471
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 10: the credit card info. They buy iPhones, gift cards, clothing, cosmetics.

472
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: Are well, yesterday it was absolutely verbatim text message hey

473
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 2: that I can't remember the vendor.

474
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: It wasn't the bank, it was somebody else, Paul.

475
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 5: It was perfect.

476
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, mine was his easy pass. Yes, all over the place.

477
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 7: My kids got them. It's so who knows. But I'm like,

478
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 7: I'm not paying anybody door.

479
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: Yeah.

480
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 10: So this is the thing they they're trying to like do.

481
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 10: They can't do anything about it. It's a man of

482
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 10: the moon exactly exactly. But they just if you look

483
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 10: at the article. It really goes into the whole process

484
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 10: of how there's videos showing the people doing it. I mean,

485
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 10: it's it's such an intricate process. But yes, the question

486
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 10: still remains, what are we going to do about it?

487
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 7: Okay?

488
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 10: So this I'm going to pull an audible on this

489
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 10: because since we go from tech scams, remember the scam

490
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 10: in London, all these phones being stolen all the time,

491
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 10: eighty thousand phones stolen in the city last year. So

492
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 10: the police are saying it goes to the black market

493
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 10: for European cell phones in China.

494
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 7: Here we go again, the same phones.

495
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 10: Some are reset, they're sold to new users in Britain,

496
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 10: but a lot of them they're shipped to China and

497
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 10: also Algeria and China. The newest phones they could be

498
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 10: sold for like five thousand dollars. So this is what's

499
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 10: going on there. So the reasoning behind that, because you

500
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 10: hear those stories the.

501
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 2: Tech management, all these guys with the gajillion dollars they're

502
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: showing up for FaceTime with the president.

503
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 3: This is where they could really help people, yep, with

504
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 3: their technology. I just don't get it.

505
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 10: I don't either, Okay, I want to go to this

506
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 10: new ranking. It shows the declining strength of the US passport.

507
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 10: This isn't a Washington Post. It's the latest edition of

508
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 10: the Henley Passport Index. So this index basically ranks nations

509
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 10: based on the number of destinations someone can go to

510
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 10: and visit without needing a visa. Okay, so it shows

511
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 10: the US passport. It's fallen out of the top ten

512
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 10: most powerful passports globally the first time in twenty years.

513
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 10: It's now at number twelve, tied with Malaysia.

514
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 5: There you go.

515
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 3: A decade ago it was.

516
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 10: At number one, so you could see the declining. Singapore

517
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 10: is the number one spot one hundred and ninety three destinations,

518
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 10: followed by South Korea and also Japan.

519
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 6: I got the Irish passport back in the day, like

520
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 6: thirty years ago. They were given them a litt Yeah,

521
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 6: they were literally did you get.

522
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: A case to gain us with that?

523
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 5: No?

524
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 7: But I used it after nine to eleven. I had

525
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 7: a lot of travel.

526
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 6: After nine eleven, I felt more comfortable with the Irish

527
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 6: reelaking today yeah see yeah, so, but I.

528
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: Know lots of people getting too bad. I do not

529
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 3: do that.

530
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 6: I mean again, this was thirty years ago. Send in

531
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 6: like a ten dollars checking.

532
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: I want to get a passport for Quebec because Montreal

533
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: is killed.

534
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 3: Sure right now? Are do you have any more?

535
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 2: Yeah?

536
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 7: Okay, one last one.

537
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 10: This is about Remember those fancy long business lunches you

538
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 10: probably used to do. They would extend into like dinner

539
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 10: time and keep going. Well, the Financial Times are saying

540
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 10: weight loss drugs are killing that business, you know, the

541
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 10: business lunch because a lot more people they're ordering less.

542
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 10: They might not want to go because they're eating less,

543
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 10: they don't drink alcohol as much. So it really goes

544
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 10: into that and how it's hurting restaurants to list.

545
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna tell a wonderful newspapers. Thank you so much.

546
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

547
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

548
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,

549
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

550
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

551
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal