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Speaker 1: The counter offensive it seems has begun. President Zelinski said

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Speaker 1: a couple of hours ago, if the Russians want to survive,

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Speaker 1: it's time for them to run away and go home.

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Speaker 1: He's saying a lot of strong things the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days, the last couple of weeks, but especially the

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Speaker 1: last couple of days, about how we're not looking for

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Speaker 1: peace at this point, we're looking for victory. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the president and perhaps the future of the conflict

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine with Dr Jeff McCaslin, CBS News, military consultant,

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Speaker 1: founder and CEO of Diamond six Leadership and Strategy, LLC,

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Speaker 1: and a Senior Fellow at the Stockdale Center for Ethical

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Speaker 1: Leadership at the Naval Academy. Uh. Mr mccoslin. Dr mccoslin,

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Speaker 1: how are you, sir? Doing very well? Guys? Hope you

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Speaker 1: are as well. Do you think the Russians should be

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Speaker 1: running for their lives yet around here? So they should be,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether or not that's going to translate into

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Speaker 1: an overall counter offensive that pushes them out of a

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Speaker 1: lot of the occupied areas. I think that remains to

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Speaker 1: be seen. The Russians still have sniffing amounts of combat

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Speaker 1: power probably still out number clearly on the battlefield the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian in terms of manpower, artillery and tanks. There's no

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Speaker 1: doubt about it. This offensive around here Stone is shaping up.

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Speaker 1: But what the extent of it, whether it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a limit of offensive to retake that shitting not unimportant

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Speaker 1: and would be politically very important to Ukrainians, or this

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Speaker 1: part of an overall effort that we now see the

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Speaker 1: Russians being pushed back significantly into Crimea or even out

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Speaker 1: of Cremia. That got so much broader question. I was

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Speaker 1: just gonna ask, though some of us who are using

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Speaker 1: rooting for Ukraine would love to see some sort of

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Speaker 1: sweeping across Carson of massive forces, like it's a Lord

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Speaker 1: of the Rings battle or something like that, that's just

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Speaker 1: not going to happen. What would progress look like? What

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Speaker 1: would victory look like over the next several months for

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians? I think what victory would look like for

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians was, first of all, holding the line where

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Speaker 1: it's at right now, it really is basically stagnated since

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Speaker 1: the Russians began a secondary offensive in July. Since July,

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Speaker 1: for example, consider this, the Russians have gained the territory

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Speaker 1: roughly the size of Andra if you know where in

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Speaker 1: door is at, which is about a hundred seventy five

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Speaker 1: square miles, and they're much touted defensive since their high point,

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Speaker 1: which would back around in twenty one of March. However,

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Speaker 1: the Russians have lost territory equal to the size of Denmark.

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Speaker 1: So the Ukraine's ability to maintain that particular line, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the east, prevent them from taking Donet's province in

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Speaker 1: the entirety of the dombos in the south. Some progress

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Speaker 1: whereby they would take back a major city like here,

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Speaker 1: so I'm city at one time of about three hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand people would be a big political boost domestically to

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians. They were now back on the offensive. They

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Speaker 1: got the Russians reacting to them instead of the other

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Speaker 1: way around. And but also I think heart and support

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Speaker 1: in Europe by many Europeans who are looking towards a

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Speaker 1: very very cold winter with the prospects of cutting the

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Speaker 1: energy supplies coming out of Russia. Yeah, what does the

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Speaker 1: onset of winter due to this whole war. I think

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Speaker 1: it puts it into a frozen conflict because the land

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Speaker 1: area around there beginning about the middle of October, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the southeast and south, how you started getting heavy rains.

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Speaker 1: All the fields turned into mud, and it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: very very hard to conduct massive, you know, arm or

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Speaker 1: heavy offensives of that take a period of time. Then

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Speaker 1: you settle into winter, which can be pretty severe, particularly

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Speaker 1: in eastern Ukraine. Uh. And so we might settle into

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Speaker 1: something it looks like World War One, which is a

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Speaker 1: lot of what we've seen so far, this now having

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Speaker 1: become an artillery war, which at the high point, for example,

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Speaker 1: we have seen the Russians expand up to sixty thousand

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Speaker 1: artillery rounds in a single day. Yeah. It was interesting

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Speaker 1: to me as a guy who's a history nut in

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Speaker 1: military history nut, uh, listening to the strategy and how

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians need to get to the other side of

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Speaker 1: the river to have a certain ground before winter. And

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Speaker 1: I thought, man, you could be describing battles from a

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Speaker 1: hundred years ago or five hundred years ago. Couldn't get

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Speaker 1: The strategy just never changes. That's exactly right. And I

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Speaker 1: think in many ways the counter offensive around here so

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Speaker 1: and I would actually call a shaping operation. What the

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Speaker 1: remains are trying to do is cut off the Russians

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Speaker 1: from their resupply on the other side of the ever

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Speaker 1: by destroying bridges, largely using the high mars, another long

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Speaker 1: arrange artillery fire and basically confronting the occupants of here.

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Speaker 1: So in the Russian occupants of our son in the

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Speaker 1: prospects of either being surrounded and cut off from resupply

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Speaker 1: and then fighting an outdoor to door building the building,

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Speaker 1: or withdrawing back across the river and seating here sown

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Speaker 1: back to the Ukrainians. Not unlike frankly, what the Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: did in the in the the Hans province, where there

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Speaker 1: was a city in which they were on in this

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Speaker 1: case the eastern side of the river. They were cut

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Speaker 1: off and they withdrew their forces rather than fight it

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Speaker 1: out door to door and and therefore sustained enormous casualties.

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Speaker 1: We're talking with Dr Jeff Romcostle and CBS News military consultant. Jeff,

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Speaker 1: how concerned are you about the violence going on around

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Speaker 1: that massive nuclear power plant in Ukraine? Very concerned to

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Speaker 1: say the least. I mean this, This is the largest

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Speaker 1: nuclear power plant in Europe at this particular time. UH

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Speaker 1: and the prospects that we could have a nuclear meltdown

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Speaker 1: at that particular plant is and not not signing the

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Speaker 1: relevant of possible. And even the experts in the i

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Speaker 1: EA have been warning that we've had the G seven

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Speaker 1: industrial powers just the other day demand unimpeded access for

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Speaker 1: un UH inspectors which are supposed to come in as

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Speaker 1: early as tomorrow or the next day to check and

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Speaker 1: see if in fact this this plan is secure, if

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Speaker 1: in fact it's operational, if in fact those maintaining it

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Speaker 1: are still able to do so, and and ensure that

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Speaker 1: the fighting around it has not damaged that particular facility.

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Speaker 1: But we when you start passing out IODA and tablished

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Speaker 1: the thousands of people who live around particular place, you

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Speaker 1: know the level of potential problem that you're dealing with.

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Speaker 1: And that's what's going on right now. Man as just

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Speaker 1: reading from Zelinski's speech last night that he gave to

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Speaker 1: his people about how we're gonna take Crimera CRIMEA back.

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Speaker 1: This will happen, this is ours, just as our society

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Speaker 1: understands it. I want the occupiers to understand it too.

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Speaker 1: There will be no place for them on Ukrainian land.

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Speaker 1: I mean he's given some pretty Churchillian speeches the last

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Speaker 1: forty seventy two hours. This must does Is he just

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Speaker 1: trying to rally people? Do you think it's this big

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Speaker 1: of a counter offensive? Is there more than meats? I will?

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Speaker 1: What do you think? Well? I think again it remains

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Speaker 1: be seeing. I'm a little bit skeptical that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see a massive offensive and the Russians reeling all the

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Speaker 1: way back to Russia. That would be nice, but I

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Speaker 1: just think that the force ratios are not there even

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Speaker 1: any kind of a limited success. Taking her Son certainly

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Speaker 1: would be a major success because as her swing, the

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Speaker 1: Russians possibility of advancing westward, westward towards mikoliave or their

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Speaker 1: real prize, which is a death the major port of

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Speaker 1: Yukranian the Black Seat, is not even possible any longer.

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Speaker 1: And secondly, control of her soon means you control the

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Speaker 1: fresh water supplies. Going into Crimea makes the Russian situation

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Speaker 1: Crimea much more difficult, and I think this would boost

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Speaker 1: domestic support for the war, which is still pretty high.

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Speaker 1: But the other thing, I think what he's doing is

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Speaker 1: really demonstrating what I would call a real leadership aspect,

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Speaker 1: and that is, you know, the UH optimism Colin pal

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Speaker 1: used to say, is a forced multiplier. Optimism is a

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Speaker 1: forced multiplier, and your team is not going to be

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Speaker 1: any more optimistic. I don't care if you're talking about

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Speaker 1: a sports team or a country or whatever. They're not

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Speaker 1: gonna be any more optimistic about how things are going

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Speaker 1: than you are. So I think his efforts to rally

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Speaker 1: his particular country in the face of this invasion by

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Speaker 1: the Russian Federation has been extraordinary and has been one

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Speaker 1: of the major reasons why the Ukrainians have been successful

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Speaker 1: so far. Definitely barely have a minute left. But in

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Speaker 1: in that time, if you were advising Vladimir Putin, how

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Speaker 1: would you describe to him the situation he's in. I say,

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Speaker 1: You're You're You're in a tough spot, my friend. First

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Speaker 1: of all, you gotta remember the keep the first thing

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Speaker 1: the first thing, and you violated that principle by at

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Speaker 1: the hands of this conflict. Your country's economy was stagnant,

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Speaker 1: you had a demographic curve in which your population is

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Speaker 1: actually shrinking, and so you decided the best thing to

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Speaker 1: do is start a war that's gonna cost you a

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Speaker 1: billion dollars a day and is getting you nowhere. So

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Speaker 1: if you've already violated principle. You made a couple of

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Speaker 1: assumptions that were wrong. One that the Ukrainians would quit easily.

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Speaker 1: They haven't done that. Second of all, that NATO would

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Speaker 1: not get us act together. Oh, by the way, they did,

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Speaker 1: provided massive military assistance and even expanded the size of NATO,

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Speaker 1: bringing in two countries, Sweden and Finland. So the best

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Speaker 1: thing I think you can do right now, my friend

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Speaker 1: is trying to put a lipstick on this pig and

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Speaker 1: try to find something that you would declare success. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: the occupation of the Hans Province part of Donetsk. I

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Speaker 1: would say, let let's announce, let's go to a ceasefire

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Speaker 1: and negotiation. Try to get this to be a frozen

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Speaker 1: conflict so we can kind of get our act together

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Speaker 1: as we head into the future. Dr Jeff McCausland, CBS

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Speaker 1: News Military consultant, Jeff, always a pleasure, so enlightening. Thanks

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Speaker 1: a million