1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 3 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card playing Android 4 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 3: All that seems kind of moot in the context of 7 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 3: maybe our government's going to shut down tonight at midnight 8 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 3: when we'll be fast asleep. But Wendy Schiller, she joined 9 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 3: us in Brown University, and we want to get some 10 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 3: informed comments about how this might play out here. 11 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 4: So Wendy A, I'm. 12 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 3: Not sure if you're in the business of predicting shutdowns 13 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 3: or not, but I'd love to get your perspective on 14 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 3: just kind of how the whole process here is unwinding. 15 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 3: In Washington, We've got a couple of civilians, President elect 16 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 3: Trump and Elon Musk right smack in the middle of 17 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: the discussion in the news cycle. And I've got a 18 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 3: President of the United States who I haven't heard anything from. 19 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 3: So house is developing well. 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 5: I think President Biden has seeded sort of the negotiating 21 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 5: power of the Democrats to Jakim Jeffries, who's the Democratic 22 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 5: leader in the House Representatives. 23 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 4: And Chuck Schumer, Senator from New York. 24 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,479 Speaker 5: Who's still the majority leader of the United States Senate 25 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 5: till January third. So there basically Biden said, you know, 26 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 5: you decide what our position will be, and I'll likely 27 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 5: you know, sign it. 28 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,199 Speaker 4: So he's seated all of that negotiating power to them. 29 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 5: And I think this is really important for everyone to remember. 30 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 5: We have a bi cameral legislature. You know, the founders 31 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 5: set it up this way on purpose. You two institutions 32 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 5: that have very different electoral incentives, very different internal structure, 33 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 5: different terms of office. 34 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 4: And we're seeing that play out right now. I mean, 35 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 4: the Senate's just literally hanging out waiting. 36 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 5: For the House to deliver something, and the Democrats control 37 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 5: the Senate, so all of this is about. 38 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 4: Well, the passes the House, it'll go through not so fast. 39 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 5: The Democratic controlled Senate will say no, we're not going 40 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 5: to pass it. So the Democrats have some risk here 41 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 5: because they be party to the shutdown. 42 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: The way the Republicans are. 43 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 5: And since it's a divided government right now, it's really 44 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 5: unclear for the voters who are you actually going to blame. 45 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 5: Right now, the Democrats have decided they're going to blame 46 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 5: elon Musk. They have made Musk a target of their communications, 47 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 5: and you're starting to see a little bit of this 48 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 5: creep into some of those Republicans who voted against the 49 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 5: package yesterday. 50 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 6: I mean, we just had a story that came out 51 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 6: on the Bloomberg terminal saying that House Speaker Mike Johnson 52 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 6: is currently strategizing a way to rush a spending bill 53 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 6: through the Chamber to avoid a government shut down ahead 54 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 6: of that midnight deadline that we've been talking about. I 55 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 6: do know that the longest government shut down in recent 56 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 6: history was in twenty eighteen under the Trump administration. It 57 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 6: lasted thirty five days. If we were to enter into 58 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 6: a government shutdown, how do people actually analyze and predict 59 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,399 Speaker 6: the longevity of how long it could last. 60 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 5: Well, you know, if you're thinking Trump and Trump's strategy, 61 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 5: you think, well, if we're going to go into US shutdown, 62 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 5: let's shut it down till I get inaugurated, and then 63 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 5: then of course we'll open it back up because at 64 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 5: that point the Republicans will control the House and the Senate, 65 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 5: so we'll have more sway and he's willing to sort 66 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 5: of live with the costs that are incurred. Usually, you know, 67 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 5: a shutdown on this length usually costs several billion dollars, 68 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 5: not only in pay for federal employees, but for all 69 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 5: sorts of disruptions to all sorts of services that the 70 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 5: federal government provides to the economy. So you're going to 71 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 5: see a cost here. But then Trump gets to be 72 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 5: the hero by reopening. 73 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 4: The government on his terms, and I think that's the 74 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 4: way he's thinking. 75 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 5: The debt ceiling is the interesting question here because the 76 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 5: Republicans have voted against this bill yesterday, really voted against 77 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 5: it because the dead ceiling extension ran through twenty twenty 78 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,839 Speaker 5: seven and basically gave Trump an unlimited checkbook. And they 79 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 5: are deficit hawks, and even they were not willing to 80 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 5: go there for Donald Trump. So there must be something 81 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 5: that they're sensing about how they would face the voters 82 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 5: again in twenty six that says we don't want to 83 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 5: be responsible for blowing up the federal. 84 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 4: Debt and the deficit even more than it is. 85 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 6: I mean, we're sitting here in December, we're still about 86 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 6: a month away from inauguration day. Paul and I were 87 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 6: chatting earlier how typical Is it historically that we have 88 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 6: the president elect implementing it weighing in on these things. 89 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 6: Where is Biden and Harris in this conversation? Is this 90 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 6: all typical? 91 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 5: I mean, it's it's you know, we haven't had as 92 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 5: much ringmanship, let's say, in December with an election switch. 93 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 5: We've certainly hadmanship with Ronald Reagan in December, with Barack 94 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 5: Obama in December. 95 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 4: So you've had sitting presidents have this issue. 96 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 5: But the transition in power, I mean, it does really happen, right, 97 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 5: I mean, you won the election, You're going to be president. 98 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 5: But in terms of the Trump sway of the GOP, 99 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 5: that's what we're talking about here, is that it is 100 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 5: a wholly owned subsidiary of Donald Trump. But right now 101 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 5: we're seeing cracks in that coalition. And the question is 102 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 5: what's driving those cracks. Is it get rid of Elon Musk. 103 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 5: Is it thinking that this is just a bridge too 104 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 5: far in terms of federal spending, or is that they 105 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 5: think they'll get some political gain by shutting it down 106 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 5: and we open under Trump with more capital with a 107 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 5: Republican control House and Senate. We're just not getting any 108 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 5: real signals from the Republicans that matter, meaning the ones 109 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 5: that voted against the bill yesterday. 110 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 4: But a shutdown is not a way to. 111 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 5: Start an administration, no matter what Donald Trump thinks. It's disruptive, 112 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 5: and he's got very high approval ratings. Now I'm not 113 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 5: sure those are going to go higher by inconveniencing a 114 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 5: lot of people over the next couple of weeks. 115 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 3: Wendy is, do some people in Washington, on either side 116 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 3: or both sides of the auduld that they view President 117 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 3: elect Trump is maybe even a lame duck president. I 118 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 3: don't really need to bend over backwards for this guy 119 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 3: because he's only here for four years. 120 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 5: Well, certainly, if you're a senator that was elected in 121 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 5: twenty twenty four or even twenty twenty two, you're thinking 122 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 5: you're probably going to outlast Trump. But then again, lots 123 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 5: of people thought Trump might not run again, get the 124 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 5: nomination and win again. I just don't think you can 125 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 5: underestimate Donald Trump's political power. But you have an economy 126 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 5: that seems to be coming along in terms of growth, 127 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 5: and the employment numbers are sort of okay, you know, 128 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 5: not disastrous or anything, but inflation is really sticky. 129 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: And the question is if there isn't a real change in. 130 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 5: People's perception of the economy by the summer, I think 131 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 5: a lot of Trump's clout could diminish, even among his 132 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 5: own base, and. 133 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 4: Then you're looking at the next electoral cycle. 134 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 5: So that is where separation of powers is really crucial here. 135 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 5: It creates different incentives and we're seeing those incentives play. 136 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 4: Out right now. 137 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 6: When you am curious, do you know the intricacies of 138 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 6: what the potential financial implications could be for non essential 139 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 6: government workers? Do they get paid retroactively or do they 140 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 6: just go without pay? 141 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 5: Typically, Congress insists on passing a separate bill to authorize 142 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 5: retroactive pay for federal employees that have been furloughed or 143 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 5: not paid during a shutdown, So you know, it varies 144 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 5: depending on the shutdown, depending on the Congress. You can 145 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 5: see where most people would want to see people paid 146 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 5: for work that they do, but if you're not working, 147 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 5: then there could be an argument, well, you weren't working, 148 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 5: so this is a bloat of the federal government, and 149 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 5: we're not paying you for work that you didn't do. 150 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 5: You know, the problem with the Republican Party is that 151 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 5: the federal government civilian force is large and diverse and 152 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 5: spread out all across the country. So in every congressional 153 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 5: district there will be federal employees or people associated with 154 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 5: the federal government that will lose income because of a shutdown, 155 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 5: and those congress people are going. 156 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 4: To hear from those employees. 157 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 5: So this becomes very sticky if they don't agree to 158 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 5: retroactively reimburse these employees. 159 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 4: But remember the reason that Donald Trump. 160 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 5: Quote unquote caved in twenty eighteen and reopened the government 161 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 5: was that the FAA and air traffic controllers and sort 162 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 5: of our TSA employees, all of that became very difficult 163 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 5: for people who weren't. 164 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: Getting paid and decided not to show up for work. 165 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 5: And that clog in the economy is what pushed Trump 166 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 5: to the table, and so that's why it's curious that 167 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 5: he'd want to start an administration with another clog in 168 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 5: the economy. 169 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 3: All Right, Wendy, thank you so much. We appreciate that. 170 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 3: Wendy Shulis, she's a professor at Brown University and she 171 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 3: is the intermim director of the Watson Institute. Joining us 172 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 3: from Providence O Rhode Island versus that zoom thing. So again, 173 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 3: I guess the initial deadline is going to be midnight tonight, right, 174 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 3: so we'll wake up tomorrow and the government will need to. 175 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 6: Be open or not right obviously, like you exactly. 176 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 177 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 178 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 179 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 180 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 181 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 3: Normal Linda sitting in for Alex Steel here today on 182 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 3: Paul Suni where you are streaming live on YouTube. Ahead 183 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 3: over to YouTube dot com and search Bloomberg Podcast. Also 184 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 3: doing this whole live thing from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker 185 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: studio here in New York City. The government shutdown is 186 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 3: a thing, and we kind of kind of getting used 187 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: to it. I guess it seems to happen at least 188 00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 3: once a year these days. Let's put this whole thing 189 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: in perspective and how the next several days might unfurlier. 190 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 3: Christopher smart joint is he's a managing partner at our 191 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 3: Growth Group, and he's a former Special Assistant to the 192 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 3: President for International Economics. Joining us from Boston via that 193 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 3: zoom thing. Hey, Chris, thanks so much for joining us here. 194 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 3: I guess again, we've all in this market become I guess, 195 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 3: kind of used to these threats of government shutdowns. What's 196 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 3: a little bit different this time is we have a 197 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 3: couple of civilians that are really weighing in and almost 198 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 3: driving part of the conversation. That is President elect Trump 199 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 3: and Elon Musk really involved here. What do you make 200 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 3: of that whole dynamic, because that seems a little bit unique. 201 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 7: It seems very unique. I'm not sure we're supposed add 202 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 7: modify us to unique, but it is a very different 203 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 7: rhythm from the traditional government shutdown background music that many 204 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 7: investors are used to at this time of year. Along 205 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 7: with the Salvation Army bell ringers and anybody singing carols 206 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 7: at your door. There is always the drama of when 207 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 7: Congress will go home, will there be a budget or 208 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 7: will there be a continuing resolution? And what services married 209 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 7: and I may not get shut down for a few days, 210 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 7: as you say, the difference, one big difference this time 211 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 7: is we have a president elect who's not really president, 212 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 7: scuttling what had been agreed by all sides earlier this 213 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 7: week we have, as you say, as civilians, somebody who's 214 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 7: not even headed for a government role, an official government 215 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 7: role at least, who's also sort of driving the dynamics 216 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 7: on social media that we haven't really seen anywhere. 217 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 2: In the past. 218 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 7: And then I guess to me the third thing, as 219 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 7: from the market's perspective, there's one thing that the markets 220 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 7: always hate, which is the debt limit debate that comes 221 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 7: up from time to time and the threat of the 222 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 7: United States defaulting here the fact that President like Trump 223 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 7: has sort of introduced this is one of his asks 224 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 7: in the continuing Resolution, at least that's what it's been 225 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 7: in the last twenty four hours. We'll see how that evolved. 226 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 7: But markets would love to see this thing go away. 227 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 7: The problem is getting the math to work on that 228 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 7: particular part of an already complicated bill becomes very, very difficult. 229 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 6: It feels like in markets we have so many things 230 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 6: to worry about right now. Honestly, my eyes are on 231 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 6: so many different things right now, especially with this being 232 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 6: a FED week. But of course as a concern, as 233 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 6: we're thinking about the uncertainty that could be upcoming in 234 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,719 Speaker 6: this situation, what is the impact on markets here? Historically 235 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 6: do we really care about a government shut down in 236 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 6: terms of the near term, I. 237 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 7: Think probably less so this time around. First of all, 238 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 7: the sell off that we've seen this week was squarely 239 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 7: linked to the fed's statements and more hawkish music coming 240 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 7: from that part of Washington. If we were sort of 241 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 7: really on the verge of a recession and you worried 242 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 7: that government spending would be cut off and government activity 243 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 7: would tip the balance into a recession, then I think 244 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 7: markets will be paying much more, much closer attention to 245 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 7: what's going on right now. But you have an economy 246 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 7: that is on the margin running a little bit hotter 247 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 7: than the FED would like, and you know, from a 248 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 7: macroeconomic perspective, a little bit of cooling, even if it 249 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 7: comes from a shutdown, is probably not a bad thing overall. Obviously, 250 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 7: from a governance perspective, from a predictability perspective, from a 251 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 7: political perspective, it's it's never a good thing when you 252 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 7: have it this kind of dynamic in the in the background. 253 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 7: And I think the thing around these government shut off 254 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 7: shutdown excuse me, is that once they happen, it's never 255 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 7: clearer if it's going to be a quick one or 256 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 7: a long one, and once ide start digging in, this 257 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 7: could go on well into the into the new year. 258 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 3: So again, we were just talking with one of our analysts, 259 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence, who covers the Washington policy, and he had 260 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 3: raised his risk of a shutdown or os of a 261 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 3: shutdown to forty percent. That's up from I think twenty 262 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 3: or thirty percent just a day or two ago. My senses, 263 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 3: you feel like it's maybe even higher than that. 264 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 6: Here. 265 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 3: What are the what's the politics of a shutdown here? 266 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 3: How would you view the politics of a shutdown that 267 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 3: might go through the holidays. 268 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 2: Well, I'm not. 269 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 7: Sure anybody benefits from a shutdown, but the question is 270 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 7: always can you blame the other person more? And obviously 271 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 7: I think at this stage it looks like this has 272 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 7: been a shutdown that's been triggered by Elon Musk and 273 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 7: Donald Trump scuppering this late deal that the Republicans Democrats 274 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 7: had agreed to. Having said that President Trump just won 275 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 7: a big election, it's very easy for him to write 276 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 7: the narrative that this is Washington insider backroom dealing that 277 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 7: he is fighting against and has promised to eliminate in Washington. 278 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 7: So I'm not sure I think both sides feel like 279 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 7: they've got the upper hand here, which should think, as 280 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 7: you say, leads me to believe that the odds are 281 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 7: maybe higher than forty percent. Although you know, these things 282 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 7: tend to change very quickly from one hour to the next. 283 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 7: It just doesn't seem to me that anybody's got a 284 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 7: real reason to compromise at this stage. The one, you know, 285 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 7: minor deadline that's coming up is actually the president's inauguration. 286 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 7: Does he want to be sworn into office with the 287 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 7: government still shut down? But between now and then, I'm 288 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 7: not sure what's going to force one side or the 289 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 7: other to come to the table. 290 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 6: When we're thinking about the market, what sectors in particular 291 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 6: could be potentially exposed to the impact of a government 292 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 6: shut down. 293 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 7: Again, if it's shutting things down for a week or 294 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 7: a month, even two months, the macroeconomic impact is fairly 295 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 7: fairly limited. Obviously, you can see government contracts that don't 296 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 7: get written, you know, maybe defense contracts that don't get 297 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 7: done this year or get pushed into next year. You 298 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 7: get a lot of uncertainty. You know that maybe some 299 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 7: businesses aren't planning their investments the way they would like 300 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 7: to given the uncertainty around government spending. But the real 301 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 7: questions are not so much around the shutdown itself, as 302 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 7: I think everybody is looking to both the tax debate 303 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 7: that's going to come into line very quickly and what 304 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 7: sort of differences they can expect in terms of corporate 305 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 7: taxes and potential rollbacks of President Biden's subsidies to the automotive, 306 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 7: to the electric vehicle, to the clean energy industry. And 307 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 7: then the other piece of that I think that he's 308 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 7: driving things are the terraff wars that are building up. 309 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 3: Christopher Smart, thank you so much for joining us. Chris Smart, 310 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 3: he's a managing partner in a growth group, former Special 311 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 3: Assistant to the President for International economics, just giving us 312 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: his thoughts here on the potential shutdown. I think as 313 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 3: Chris was just mentioning, he kind of feels like this 314 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 3: is somebody that may come to fruition and so have 315 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 3: to see will pay attention. That's starting midnight tonight. 316 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 317 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 318 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 2: Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 319 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 320 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 3: Normal Linda sitting in for Alex Steel on Paul Swooney 321 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 3: Your Life here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, or 322 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 3: streaming live on YouTube as well. So check us out 323 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 3: on YouTube dot com slots Boom Bloomberg podcast Again, Like 324 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 3: Charlie Pellet, I'm trying to figure out what the heck 325 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 3: going on in this market, what's driving the higher here? 326 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 3: You know, I'm seeing a couple of things, maybe, you know, 327 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 3: I'm looking at the top go on the Bloomberg terminal, 328 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 3: Fed's favorite inflation gauge cools to the slowest pace since May. 329 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 3: So maybe this economic data people is really starting to 330 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 3: digest it and say, all right, maybe this inflation thing 331 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 3: is is not as concerning as maybe we thought. That 332 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: might give the FED some room on the rates here, 333 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 3: you know. And I think the question is maybe the 334 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 3: reaction to the Fed's meeting on Wednesday again, SMP off 335 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 3: two and a half percent last top of three and 336 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 3: a half percent. Maybe that's a little bit of an overreaction. 337 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 6: We're seeing real estate the best performing sector today and 338 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 6: then information technology is the second best. 339 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 3: Real estate and that's my career. 340 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 2: Real estate. 341 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 3: All right, very good. We appreciate that Sandy Berger joins us. 342 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 3: She's the chief client officer. I'm sure she's got some 343 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 3: thoughts here. The firm's experient and she joins us via zoom. Sandy, 344 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 3: what do you make of the last I don't know, 345 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 3: four five, six days in this marketplace. We've got geopolitics, 346 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 3: we've got domestic politics with the government shutdown, We've got 347 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 3: federal reserve. Boy, there's a lot of cross currents for 348 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 3: investors to navigate. 349 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: Well, it's been an exciting week, and every day there 350 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 1: is a new twist. In turn. We've been telling our clients, 351 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: who are corporate executives, family business owners and entrepreneurs to 352 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: be ready for anything and to be thoughtfully and thoughtfully 353 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: diversified in their portfolios. That's what we've been doing for them. 354 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: But in terms of the economy right now, things are 355 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 1: looking pretty good in our We have a strong economy, 356 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 1: strong corporate earnings. There are some wild cards on out 357 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: there that could change things, and I think we got 358 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 1: a taste of some of those wild cards this week, 359 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: especially in terms of the Fed's decision regarding interest rates 360 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: and slowing down the pace. There so a lot of 361 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: volatility within the week. We wouldn't be surprised if volatility 362 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: continued into twenty twenty five. But at this point on 363 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: our base case scenario, we're not expecting any major changes. 364 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: We think things look good out there. 365 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 6: Sandy, you mentioned wild cards. There's so much volatility. Where 366 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 6: are you guys staying, what do you like right now? 367 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 6: And where are you avoiding? 368 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: So within our portfolios, as I was mentioning, we really 369 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: truly believe that now more than ever, diversification is important, 370 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,120 Speaker 1: and we're pretty well balanced between bonds and equities, though 371 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: tilting toward equities. Within the equity markets, we do like 372 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 1: the US market, particularly large cap value. It really has 373 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 1: not been the place to be for a long time. 374 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: On balance, we think that there's some real opportunity there. 375 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: We also like small caps in the United States, also 376 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: on the value side, and really looking at the higher 377 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: quality small company so companies that have strong balance sheets, 378 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: that have great business models, that are going to do 379 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: well during good economic times and bad. And then we 380 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 1: do have some of our allocation overseas. We're particularly more 381 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 1: bullish on Europe at this point and also Japan. 382 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 6: When we look at the fact that we've hit so 383 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 6: many record highs for the S and P five hundred 384 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 6: in the market more broadly this year more than fifty times. 385 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 6: Is there any discussion around whether or not market valuations 386 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 6: have been too high? 387 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: In our estimation, the US large cap growth area is 388 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 1: running pretty hot. Still, we think valuations are high there. 389 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 1: You look at the SMP five hundred earnings currently pees 390 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: at twenty two, an average is more like sixteen. So 391 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: you could make some arguments that some stocks have gotten 392 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: ahead of themselves. That's why we are tilting toward value 393 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: in some of the areas of the market that haven't 394 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: gotten as much play. But you know, it all depends 395 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 1: upon what happens in the economy in how corporate ar 396 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,679 Speaker 1: needs continue in the period ahead. And again, without some 397 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 1: of these wild cards coming into tuition I talked about inflation, 398 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: interest rates would be another wild card, and of course 399 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: we have deficits and tariffs out there as well. We 400 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: could see sustained levels in the markets if those wild 401 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,400 Speaker 1: cards don't show their ugly faces and create some surprises 402 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 1: and sandy. 403 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 3: You know, since the election, at least from my perspective, 404 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 3: has been a palpable sense of optimism, economic optimism, optimism 405 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 3: about the markets, optimism about taking risk. Do you get 406 00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 3: that when you talk to your clients. 407 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: So, our clients are mostly based in the United States, 408 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: we have some that are located overseas, and they represent 409 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: all aspects of the political spectrum. And so what I've 410 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: noticed it's clients who have strong political views on one 411 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: side of the spectrum, where the other that are either 412 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: the most bullish around economy or the most concerned. So 413 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,640 Speaker 1: we're hearing a lot of different things from our clients, 414 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: and our jobs really is to meet them where they are, 415 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 1: keep in mind what they're trying to achieve with their 416 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: long term financial plans and what they're really focused on, 417 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: and making sure that we're helping them make decisions about 418 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: their portfolios that are going to be invested in service 419 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 1: of what they're trying to achieve, and keeping them keeping 420 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: a check on any strong feelings one way or the 421 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: other between bolishness or bearishness. We hear it all, Paul Sandy. 422 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 6: One of the latest wildcards, of course, that we're monitoring 423 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 6: and the rest of the market is monitoring today is 424 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 6: the potential government shutdown. How have markets historically responded to 425 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 6: government shutdowns and what are you all thinking about what 426 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 6: we're seeing today in about thirty seconds. 427 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: Or less, Nora, the shutdowns tend to be a non 428 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: market event, in a non economic event, so we've been 429 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 1: telling clients who've been concerned not to worry about it. 430 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: The interesting thing about this potential shutdown is that it 431 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: really is an early test, perhaps of the cohesiveness of 432 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: the Republican Party. So if we were to see a 433 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: prolonged shutdown, and that's not necessarily what we're expecting, but 434 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: if we saw one, that could put into question some 435 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 1: of the Republican Party's ability to rally around other policies 436 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 1: that people are expecting to come into fruition, like tax 437 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 1: reform later next year. 438 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 3: Sandy, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Thanks for 439 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 3: your time, Sandy Berger, Chief Client Officer, Experient giving us 440 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 3: her thoughts on the markets. 441 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 442 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you'll get your podcasts. Listen live each 443 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 2: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 444 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 2: Thehart Radio app, tune In, and the Boomberg Business App. 445 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 446 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal